Triple Crown Countdown 2-3-14

In the three graded stakes races run last weekend for three-year-olds, there were a number of horses that struck me as particularly promising prospects for the Kentucky Derby -- and they didn't necessarily win their races.

A new facet of this year's Triple Crown Countdown shall be the naming of a "Performance of the Week" following each weekend's major prep races. The Performance of the Week award shall be given to whichever colt (or filly, as the case may be!) impressed me the most, whether in winning a prep race in decisive fashion, or by finishing second or third with a troubled trip.

So without further ado, our inaugural Performance of the Week winner is . . .

Performance of the Week: Harpoon

As you can see, the Performance of the Week was -- in my opinion -- Harpoon's nose defeat to stablemate Vinceremos in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs. Everything about Harpoon's effort was remarkable -- the way he settled along the rail, the way he handled the dirt getting kicked back in his face, and most importantly, the way he made up 4 1/2 lengths in the final furlong after being forced to take back and circle the field. If he had gotten clear sooner, I have little doubt that he could have won by open lengths, and I can't wait to see if he can take another step forward in his next start.

But all that said, once mustn't overlook the merits of Vinceremos' victory. The colt showed great tractability in settling into second place early on, and allowing two other horses to go past him rounding the final turn. When the time came to drive for the wire, the son of Pioneerof the Nile accelerated strongly to claim the advantage, then held on well late to deny the rally of Harpoon in the time of 1:47.34 for a mile and a sixteenth. As both colts are trained by Todd Pletcher, it will be interesting to see if they both come back for the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) over the same track in March, or if Pletcher separates them and sends one to a different race.

Cousin Stephen and Matador, the third- and fourth-place finishers, also turned in impressive performances. Cousin Stephen showed good speed in setting the early pace, then battled back well after being passed in the stretch and was beaten just three-quarters of a length for everything. Matador, making his first start on dirt, finished just a neck further back after racing a bit wide throughout the race. I believe that both colts deserve another shot at a major Derby prep, with the most logical being the Tampa Bay Derby.

One colt that didn't run to expectations was the favorite, Noble Cornerstone, who broke very poorly, dropped back to trail the field by an extremely large margin, and rallied only mildly late to defeat just one horse. In my opinion, this effort is a complete throw-out, and like Cousin Stephen and Matador, Noble Cornerstone probably deserves a chance to rebound in another major Derby prep.

In New York, the race of note over the weekend was the WithersStakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct, where bettors could barely separate the chances of Samraat and Uncle Sigh, a pair of New York-breds that both went off at odds of 1.15-1. In the end, those two proved vastly superior to the four other starters, racing as a pair throughout the race to eventual finish 10 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. It was a shame that one of the two colts had to lose, as both ran win-worthy races, but Samraat proved one length better at the finish, edging his rival after a long stretch duel while stopping the clock for 8.5 furlongs in 1:46.31. The winner is currently expected to make his next start in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) in April, while the runner-up is targeting the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in March, where he could potentially meet up with Remsen Stakes (gr. II) winner Honor Code.

On the first day of 2014, we saw a colt named Wildcat Red lose the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby by just a head after a prolonged stretch duel. That colt re-affirmed his talent on Saturday in winning the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park by nearly five lengths while stopping the clock in a quick 1:22.21 seconds. What was especially impressive was the way that Wildcat Red settled into fourth-place early on before bursting clear of his rivals approaching the homestretch. This was a top-notch performance by every account, and while only time will tell if Wildcat Red can be as good around two turns as he is around one, there's no doubt that this son of D'wildcat -- at the very least -- has the potential to be a top-notch sprinter.

While the three above-mentioned graded stakes races drew by far the most attention from racing fans, there were a number of other intriguing races run over the course of Thursday through Sunday, and here are a few thoughts on some of the most prominent . . .

* Time will tell if Discipline has what it takes to be a serious Triple Crown candidate, but the lightly-raced colt could not have been any more impressive in breaking his maiden at Oaklawn on January 31st. Facing six rivals in a six-furlong maiden special weight, Discipline broke alertly but calmly settled into second place early on as Fudge E opened up a commanding 3 1/2-length advantage through an opening quarter mile in a blazing :21.97 seconds. This was followed by an equally impressive half-mile split of :45.45, which gave Fudge E a six-length lead with a quarter mile to run. But that was when Discipline unleashed his run, and with jockey David Mello urging him on, the colt swallowed up Fudge E within an eighth of a mile, then powered clearly to win by ten and a half lengths in the time of 1:11.67. Rough calculations indicate that Discipline ran his personal final quarter mile in about :25 flat, which is absolutely flying at Oaklawn Park. Trained by Chris Richard, this son of Sky Mesa out of the Coronado's Quest mare Spread surely has his connections dreaming of the Derby.

* Another notable winner at Oaklawn was Street Strategy, a three-year-old facing his elders in a one-mile maiden special weight. With Calvin Borel aboard, the son of Street Sense led the way through an opening quarter in :24.21, relinquished the lead to Late Night Lu through a half in :48.88, reclaimed the advantage after three-quarters in 1:14.77, then opened up down the lane to score by 6 1/2 lengths in 1:42.05. The time was by no means fast, but this was a very professional effort from a colt making just his second start, and this Randy Morse-trainee could be one to watch out for during the coming months.

* The Phipps Stable and Shug McGaughey may have another talented three-year-old in their stable, as Ragtime was very impressive winning a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Sent off at 9-2 off a third-place finish in his debut, Ragtime showed speed from the start in tracking Madd Exchange through an opening quarter in :22.50, then took the lead around the turn and drew off in the stretch to win by 3 1/4 lengths in the time of 1:16.77. Finishing second was Strong Stipulation, a 19.40-1 shot from the barn of Graham Motion that turned in an impressively rally to win a five-way battle for the runner-up position. While the wagering suggested Strong Stipulation was nothing special, I had my eye on the son of Lemon Drop Kid for the reason that Motion had nominated him to the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) last year, which suggested to me that Strong Stipulation was a colt of above-average caliber. I look forward to seeing how he fares when stretched out in distance.

* While Hoppertunity could only manage a fifth-place finish in his debut on January 4th, the half-brother to grade I winner Executiveprivilege showed that he is well en route to emulating his star sibling when he scored by three lengths in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita on Thursday. With Martin Garcia aboard for trainer Bob Baffert, the son of Any Given Saturday was just a bit rank in the early stages of the race, but soon settled into third place along the rail, a position he retained until the turn for home, when he snuck through an opening along the rail to defeat his nine rivals in workmanlike fashion, completing the mile in 1:36.94. Two other Baffert-trainees, Day of Fury and Icy Ride, finished third and fourth, the latter being the only one to make up any ground late in a race where the top three finishers occupied the top three positions throughout the entire race.

* Last year, Casiguapo quietly compiled a strong record as a two-year-old, placing second in both the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) and Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), as well as fourth in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I). On Sunday, he returned to the races in a six-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park, but was outrun early and could only pass tired rivals in the stretch en route to finishing fifth. That said, it was a decent performance from a colt that had recorded just three workouts in preparation for his return, and I believe he can build upon this performance in a big way. In the meantime, Can't Stop the Kid stamped himself as a colt to watch with a powerful victory, in which he blitzed a half-mile in :44.75, opened up a 4 1/2-length lead passing the eighth pole, and held off a late run from Myositis Dan to win by 1 1/2 lengths in the time of 1:10.18. The latter colt was also very impressive, closing six lengths in the final furlong and finishing full of run.

-Keelerman

Vinceremos leads 1-2 Pletcher sweep of Sam F. Davis Stakes

Vinceremos, lightly regarded at odds of 12.40-1, surged through an opening along the rail to take command of the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, then held off a late run from stablemate Harpoon to give trainer Todd Pletcher a 1-2 sweep of the 8.5-furlong Kentucky Derby prep.

With Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado aboard, Vinceremos got off to a very alert start and quickly settled into the second position early on, a half-length behind pace-setting Cousin Stephen and just in front of Asserting Bear. Harpoon, School On a Hill, and Matador were all tightly bunched just in behind the leaders, while Imaginethatmom and favored Noble Cornerstone were well behind the main pack and seemingly out of contention from the start.

Through fractions of :24.35, :48.77, and 1:13.61 seconds, Cousin Stephen continued to lead the way, but Vincemeros actually dropped back a bit, shifting to fourth position while staying on the rail as Asserting Bear and School On a Hill moved up. In the meantime, Harpoon was being shuffled back a bit, and was back in sixth place, four lengths behind Cousin Stephen.

Turning for home, Cousin Stephen still held the lead, but Prado had found a seam along the rail, and Vincemeros shot through to take command by 1 1/2 lengths. In the meantime, Harpoon had extracted himself from traffic and was coming fast on the far outside, gobbling up ground in impressive fashion. The two colts hit the wire with virtually nothing between them, but the photo finish camera revealed Vincemeros as the winner by a nose, with Cousin Stephen re-rallying late to finish just three-quarters of a length behind Harpoon. Matador, Asserting Bear, School On a Hill, Noble Cornerstone, and Imaginethatmom completed the order of finish. The final time was 1:47.34 seconds.

Vincemeros is a son of Pioneerof the Nile out of the More Than Ready mare Kettle's Sister. Owned by WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing, Vincemeros was bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall, and has now compiled a record two wins and a second from three starts, with earnings of $153,600.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-1-14

The first day of February brings us a trio of graded stakes races for two-year-olds, led by the $250,000 Withers Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct, which will award a total of 17 Kentucky Derby qualifications points to the top four finishers. Let's take a look at who's running!

Withers Stakes (gr. III)

In this small six-horse field, Samraat looks like the horse to beat. Trained by Richard Violette Junior, this New York-bred son of Noble Causeway is unbeaten in three starts thus far, including a 16 3/4-length romp in the Damon Runyon Stakes here at Aqueduct on December 18th. His main opposition is expected to come from Uncle Sigh, a fellow New York-bred that broke his maiden at Aqueduct on December 27th by 14 1/2 lengths. However, should the two favorites hook up in an early duel for the lead, Jerome Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Classic Giacnroll should be flying late from off the pace. Scotland, who finished third in the Jerome, could also contend if he steps up a bit in his second start around two turns.
SELECTIONS: Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Scotland, Classic Giacnroll

Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)

Cousin Stephen, who finished a close fifth in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream behind Commissioner and Top Billing, is the morning line favorite at 3-1 for trainer Chad Brown. However, the colt that I'm intrigued by is Noble Cornerstone, who broke his maiden by 5 1/2 lengths last November at Aqueduct before rallying to finish second by a neck in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park, earning good speed figures for both performances. Trained by Wesley Ward, Noble Cornerstone has enough tactical speed to be involved from the start, as well as the ability to rate off the pace, which should make him dangerous with the blinkers coming off for the first time. Harpoon, who finished second in his first three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher before breaking through going a mile in his fourth start, should definitely be in the mix, but will have to work out a good trip from post position one. Vinceremos, another Todd Pletcher-trainee, looks slower on paper but will have Hall of Fame rider Edgar Prado in the saddle. It's encouraging that Pletcher has scratched Vinceremos from the Hutcheson Stakes to run here. And one mustn't forget about Matador, who won Woodbine's Cup and Saucer Stakes two starts back for trainer Mark Casse. He is eligible to improve while making his dirt debut, and has been training sharply at Palm Meadows.
SELECTIONS: Noble Cornerstone, Matador, Harpoon, Cousin Stephen

Hutcheson Stakes (gr. III)

A field of nine will head to post in this seven-furlong sprint, following the scratch of Vincemeros. Wildcat Red is favored off of a head defeat in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby, and the speedy colt should appreciate the slight cut back in distance. With recently-crowned Eclipse champion Javiar Castellano aboard, Wildcat Red looms as the horse to beat. Trail Blaze broke his maiden impressively first time out at Aqueduct in November, and while he could only manage a fourth-place finish in the Spectacular Bid Stakes in January, he has the potentially to rebound sharply today. Pablo Del Monte, who finished fourth in the Gulfstream Park Derby, and C. Zee, runner-up in the Spectacular Bid, are other logical contenders.
SELECTIONS: Wildcat Red, Pablo Del Monte, Trail Blaze, C. Zee

-Keelerman