It is fitting that the first day of autumn brings us the first weekend of final Breeders' Cup prep races, as the transition from summer to autumn traditionally marks the beginning of the Breeders' Cup season.
Later this afternoon, a number of promising Breeders' Cup aspirants will try and take the final steps toward their respective cup races while competing at a variety of venues across the east coast. The highlights of the day are at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania, where a pair of million-dollar races are to be held. Among the major contenders entered are Alpha, Golden Ticket, Macho Macho, Questing, and My Miss Aurelia.
We shall begin our weekend handicapping with the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) for three-year-old colts.
Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II)
Nine furlongs on the Parx Racing dirt track
Entries:
The stars of the field are clearly
Alpha and
Golden Ticket, the dead-heat winners of the Travers Stakes (gr. I) last month. In that prestigious ten-furlong race, they both ran similar races, sitting a couple of lengths off the pace before eventually hitting the wire together with little between them. Perhaps Golden Ticket displayed a bit more acceleration in the homestretch, briefly leaving his rival behind turning for home, but he also saved ground throughout while Alpha took the overland route. The nine furlong distance of this race -- an eighth of a mile shorter than the Travers -- may appear to benefit Golden Ticket, as that colt led Alpha by a length following the first nine furlongs of the Travers, but Ramon Dominguez may have moved a bit late on Alpha that day. All told, the two colts appear very evenly matched in this spot -- assuming that they both run back to their Travers form.
The question is, will they? We can assume that Alpha will do so, as he has proven very consistent throughout his career and was expected to win the Travers. Golden Ticket is more of a question mark. Prior to the Travers, his only victory had come in a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park -- and that was the sixth start of his career. Furthermore, he came into the Travers off of a runner-up effort in an allowance race at Churchill Downs. These facts lend support to the theory that Golden Ticket's Travers may have been a one-time fluke.
On the other hand, one has to give credit to Golden Ticket for turning in an effort like that off of a nearly four-month layoff. Assuming it didn't take too much out of him, Golden Ticket could be sitting on another move forward -- and if that is the case, then he could prove very tough to beat today.
Moving onward from the top two betting choices, we come to
Macho Macho. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the son of Macho Uno has shown promised throughout his career, running well at Fair Grounds during the winter before winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs by two lengths. He then cracked the trifecta in the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) and Long Branch Stakes, losing the latter race by just a half-length, before winning the West Virgiani Derby (gr. II) by a half-length in his most recent start. Finishing second to him on that occasion was Bourbon Courage, who subsequently returned to dominate the $500,000 Super Derby (gr. II). If the top two fail to fire their best shots, this colt can more than pick up the pieces, but he would need some racing luck in order to do so -- I don't think he has enough of an edge to get caught four-wide around both turns and still win, if you know what I mean.
Csaba and
Casual Trick are also intriguing contenders. The first-mentioned colt has compiled quite a record on dirt, winning or placing in seven of his nine starts over the surface. Three starts back, he won the El Kaiser Stakes at Calder Race Course with a Beyer speed figure of 99, which would make him very competitive in this spot. Furthermore, he seems to possess a tactical edge over this field in terms of early speed, as he is the only horse in the field to routinely show in interest in taking the early lead. I can certainly envision a scenario where Csaba grabs the early lead, sets slow fractions, and holds off the late runners to pull off an upset.
Casual Trick showed a great deal of promise last winter, breaking his maiden at Churchill and backing it up with a strong second in the Gulfstream Park Derby on the first day of the year, but breathing issues kept him from living up to his potential in his next three starts. Given a bit of a break, he returned in good form and won a pair of allowance races here at Parx in decisive fashion, signaling that he could be sitting on a career-best effort today.
Stephanoatsee and
Handsome Mike are the two longest shots in the field, but both have credentials. The former colt ran second to Alpha in the Count Fleet Stakes back in January before going to the sidelines with an injury, yet returned in August to win an allowance race at Delaware Park in terrific fashion while showing no signs of rust. Clearly, he can move forward off of that effort, but from a speed-figure perspective, he stills has some improving to do if he wants to catch Alpha and Golden Ticket.
As for
Handsome Mike, he has competed well in seven consecutive graded stakes races dating back to last November, but has failed win any of them. One thing to love about him is his consistency -- he has run Beyer speed figures of 80-88 range in eight of his nine starts -- but that probably won't be enough to secure more than a minor award in a race like this.
As you can see, this is a tough race to handicap, with practically every horse having a serious shot at winning. Believe it or not, I am leaning toward either
Csaba or
Casual Trick for the victory, feeling that race won't set up for
Alpha and
Golden Ticket, despite their impressive credentials.
Other Races of Note:
At Parx Racing . . .
Race 9: The $300,000
Gallant Bob Stakes, a six-furlong sprint for three-year-olds, has drawn some of the best sophomore sprinters in the country and looks to be a very evenly-matched race.
Trinniberg is the 9-5 favorite by merit of the three graded stakes races he has won this year, but he is coming off of a poor effort in the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) and is going to have to rebound sharply to win this race.
Currency Swap has beaten Trinniberg in two of their three meetings, but he too is coming off of a sub-par showing in the King's Bishop. Chick Lang Stakes winner
Il Villano and Jersey Shore Stakes (gr. III) winner
Well Spelled probably have the best chances at pulling off an upset if the top two falter, but I am going to side with
Currency Swap regardless of his last performance and hope that he rebounds to his usual consistent self this afternoon.
Race 10: The $1,000,000
Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) for three-year-old fillies may have drawn just four entrants, but the race has the potential to be one of the best of the year if everything goes according to plan. The heavy favorites are
Questing, winner of the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) during the summer, and
My Miss Aurelia, the undefeated champion juvenile filly of 2011. Of the two, Questing has more positives on her side, such as terrific recent form and impressive speed figures, but My Miss Aurelia should be sharper today than she was in her sophomore debut at Saratoga, and a return to her 2011 form would make her very competitive against Questing.
At Belmont Park . . .
Race 9: Four-time grade I winner
Turbulent Descent and Eclipse champion female sprinter
Musical Romance are the two top contenders in the $200,000
Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II), a 6-1/2 furlong prep for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (gr. I), but they may possibly be upstaged by a pair of promising three-year-olds.
Emma's Encore and
Judy the Beauty, who were separated by just a nose last time out in the Prioress Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, figure to give their elders a run for the money, regardless of whether they win or lose.
Mildly Offensive could also be very competitive off of an eye-catching victory in the Big Bambu Stakes at Saratoga last month.
At Delaware Park . . .
Race 7: Three-year-old turf horses are the stars of the Saturday program, with eleven of them scheduled to head to post for the $200,000 Kent Stakes (gr. III) at a distance of nine furlongs. In a deep field full of evenly-matched contenders, the consistent graded stakes performer
Lucky Chappy, American Derby (gr. III) winner
Cozzetti, recent allowance winner
Optimizer, and four-time stakes runner-up
Excaper are the favorites. It's very difficult to say for certain which will emerge of top -- or if one of the seven other entrants will pull off an upset -- but it should be a terrific race to watch.
-Keelerman
