I wasn't going to live update today, but I can't wait top post the results! Afleet Express won the Travers Stakes by a nose!
I can't believe it! I have followed Afleet Express since December, hoping that he would someday win a grade I race, and at long last he pulled it off!
Here are the top four finishers. . .
1 Afleet Express
2 Fly Down
3 First Dude
4 Afleet Again
What a race!
-Keelerman
Saturday, August 28, 2010
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- AUGUST 27th, 2010
As sad as it is to say this, Saratoga will be concluding its meet soon. Obviously one of the highlights of the summer, Saratoga has provided us with some spectacular racing this year. And although there's only a little more than a week of racing left at the historic track, it's going to be the best racing of the meet.
Still left to be run at Saratoga are the Ballerina Stakes, Ballston Spa Handicap, King's Bishop Stakes, Travers Stakes, Victory Ride Stakes, Personal Ensign Stakes, With Anticipation Stakes, Forego, The Woodward, Saranac Stakes, Spinaway Stakes, Glens Falls Handicap, and Hopeful Stakes. Eight of those are grade I stakes races. Six of them will be run this weekend.
Therefore, Saratoga will be the host of this week's feature race, the grade I Travers Stakes for three year olds.
FEATURE RACE: TRAVERS STAKES (gr. I)
Frequently referred to as the "Midsummer Derby", the Travers Stakes is one of the oldest races in the United States. Every year the race helps sort out the often muddled three year old division, with the winner always gaining a shot at earning the three year old championship. Summer Bird, Colonel John, Street Sense, Bernardini, Flower Alley, Birdstone, Ten Most Wanted, Medaglia d'Oro, and Point Given have been the last nine winners. Who will win the 141st Travers Stakes? Let's take a look at who's running.
#1: MINER'S RESERVE (12-1)
It's hard to believe that this is the same colt that finished tenth, beaten thirty-four lengths, in the Florida Derby. His last three starts have been terrific, beginning with an impressive win in an allowance race at Belmont Park, followed by a sharp second to A Little Warm in another allowance race. As good as these efforts were, he turned in a breakthrough performance in his last start, the grade II Jim Dandy, where he ran second once again to A Little Warm while defeating classy stakes winners Afleet Express and Fly Down. However, he may not have the necessary stamina to take this field wire-to-wire, especially with First Dude, Super Saver, and A Little Warm all pushing the pace.
#2: TRAPPE SHOT (4-1)
The second choice on the morning line, Trappe Shot has won four of his last five races. His last start was very impressive, as he ran second to leading three year old and Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky in the Haskell Invitational. Finishing behind him were First Dude, Super Saver, Afleet Again, and Ice Box. But like Miner's Reserve, Trappe Shot may not have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter against this group. But he definitely deserves a chance.
#3: ADMIRAL ALEX (12-1)
When Leon Blusiewicz announced that he intended to run Admiral Alex in the Travers, it came as a bit of a surprise. Yes, Admiral Alex is undefeated. But he has only raced once, winning a maiden special weight by a length here at Saratoga on July 31st. It was a rather impressive performance, however, so he certainly could be a contender. He would probably benefit from a fast pace, which would allow him to sit just off the lead and get first run at the leaders in the home stretch.
#4: FIRST DUDE (8-1)
If one was to glance at First Dude's racing summary, one would get the impression that First Dude is a nice allowance horse. After all, he has only won once in nine starts. But First Dude is much more than an allowance horse. Along with his one win--a maiden special weight--he has finished second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont, Haskell, and Blue Grass. That is the career of a very good race horse who deserves a shot at winning the Midsummer Derby. However, he has had a long, hard campaign and may not be at his best.
#5: A LITTLE WARM (7-2)
What A Little Warm has accomplished since he started racing last June is truly amazing. It took the colt four tries to break his maiden, but since doing so he has reeled off five consecutive first or second place finishes, four of them in stakes races. His streak began with his 2010 debut in the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which he won while easily defeating Discreetly Mine, who finished a dismal fourth in the slop. He then finished second in the Hutcheson Stakes to D' Funnybone and second in the Lousiana Derby to Mission Impazible.
Running in the Preakness Stakes was considered, but the colt with withdrawn after failing a post-workout endoscopic examination. Given a lengthy break, he returned in an allowance optional claiming race at Delaware Park which he won by just over two lengths. Stepped up to stakes company once again, he answered the big class question by winning Jim Dandy over Miner's Reserve, Afleet Express, Fly Down, and others. He looks like the deserving favorite here today, and would be an even stronger favorite if the track turns up sloppy.
#6: ICE BOX (10-1)
Ice Box looked to have an unlimited future back in March after just getting up to win the Florida Derby by a nose. His future seemed even brighter when he finished a fast closing second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby after a disastrous trip. However, he has been extremely disappointing since then, finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes and sixth of seven in the Haskell. A fast pace and slop would really help this colt.
#7: AFLEET EXPRESS (6-1)
Immediately after this colt broke his maiden, I was extremely excited about him. I had the feeling that he was going to turn out to be something very special. Although he was somewhat disappointing in two allowance races following his first win, I never gave up hope that he might someday turn into something special.
In his fourth start, coming off of a three month layoff, the Afleet Express that I had imagined finally showed up. The colt won an allowance race at Belmont Park by nearly eight lengths, and then proceeded to win over Afleet Again, Soaring Empire, Nacho Friend, Jackson Bend, and Schoolyard Dreams in the grade III Pegasus Stakes. Although he could only finish third in the Jim Dandy, he is still a major contender on Saturday and should relish the mile and a quarter.
#8: FLY DOWN (8-1)
Just how good is Fly Down? This question has yet to be answered. He began 2010 with an allowance win by a head over First Dude, but then finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby as the third choice. Given a bit of a rest, he turned in a very dominating performance in the Dwyer Stakes, winning by six lengths over Drosselmeyer. The order of finish was reversed, however, in the Belmont Stakes, where Drosselmeyer defeated Fly Down by three quarters of a length. Based off of this strong form, Fly Down was favored to win the Jim Dandy and did make a strong move to reach contention but flattened out and finished fifth, beaten three and a half lengths. Seeing that his best performances have come at Belmont Park, it is possible that Fly Down is a true "horse for the course" and may not be as good anywhere else.
#9: FRIEND OR FOE (15-1)
The biggest question that this New York-bred has to answer is: can he get the distance? He made his first start in March of this year, winning a maiden special weight, and proceeded to knock off an allowance race and the Mike Lee Stakes, the latter in which he beat heavy favorite Ibboyee, who returned to win the New York Derby and finish a close second in the Albany Stakes. However, when Friend or Foe attempted to race beyond seven furlongs for the first time, in the nine furlong Jim Dandy Stakes, he finished fourth while unable to stay with the top three finishers. On the other hand, he was three wide on both turns and did finish ahead of Fly Down.
#10: AFLEET AGAIN (30-1)
The longshot on the morning line, inconsistent is the word that best describes Afleet Again. One minute he is charging from the clouds, weaving down the stretch to hit the board--or even win--a respectable stakes race. The next minute you are left wondering "Is he a stakes horse or a claimer?" Afleet Again began 2010 with a badly beaten fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes. Then he won an allowance race at Philadelphia Park by a length before finishing a fast closing second to Peppi Knows in the ungraded Whirlaway Stakes, a race that was memorable because the heavy favorite, Eightfiveinafifty, failed to make the first turn and threw his rider. This performance was followed by a last-place finish in the grade III Gotham Stakes, well behind victorious Awesome Act. He then pulled a stunning upset in the grade III Withers Stakes before finishing a fast-closing but weaving third in the Spend a Buck Stakes behind Ibboyee and Our Dark Knight. A second in the Pegasus Stakes was followed by a fifth in the Haskell, which brings us to the Travers. A blazing fast pace would help set up his late run, but he doesn't seem to be quite good enough here.
#11: SUPER SAVER (6-1)
Super Saver has had a good, but not great year. One of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby following a dominating performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, he began the year by finishing a close third to Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams in the Tampa Bay Derby. A sharp second to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby set him up for the Kentucky Derby, which he won by two and a half lengths in the slop. Sent off as the favorite in the Preakness Stakes, he got in a perfect position but failed to menace at all, fading badly on the far turn to finish eighth, well behind winner Lookin at Lucky. Given a long break, he returned in the Haskell Invitational. On the far turn it looked like he was going to give Lookin at Lucky a fight, but he flattened out and finished fourth, missing second by three quarters of a length. If it pours rain on Saturday, then you can't ignore Super Saver.
Now, having discussed all eleven runners, it's time to make my picks.
Here they are. . .
1 Afleet Express
2 A Little Warm
3 Trappe Shot
4 Super Saver
5 First Dude
6 Ice Box
7 Fly Down
8 Miner's Reserve
9 Afleet Again
10 Admiral Alex
11 Friend or Foe
I'm going to stick with Afleet Express once again. Perhaps I am biased toward him since I have liked him since last December, but I honestly believe that he is capable of great things. A Little Warm is obviously the one to beat, but I'm not quite sure that he can go a mile and a quarter against this group. Trappe Shot is very nice horse, but I'm very worried about his distance abilities.
J.R., however, is not.
For those of you who have not thoroughly read my prior posts, J.R. is my friend who enjoys handicapping the races with me. He has absolutely no doubts about Trappe Shot's distance ability and feels that the colt will win impressively on Saturday.
Amazingly, he has picked Admiral Alex for second. He doesn't think that A Little Warm is as good as everyone thinks he is. Also, he is intrigued by the other two Afleet Alex sons, Afleet Express and Afleet Again, and is mulling over the possibility of an all Afleet Alex trifecta.
Here are his full picks. . .
1 Trappe Shot
2 Admiral Alex
3 Afleet Axpress
4 Ice Box
5 Afleet Again
6 First Dude
7 A Little Warm
8 Super Saver
9 Fly Down
10 Friend or Foe
11 Miner's Reserve
It's a handicapping contest! Whose picks will finish better, mine or J.R.'s? Who do you like?
OTHER NOTABLE RACES
PACIFIC CLASSIC (gr. I)
As usual, the Pacific Classic has drawn a well-matched field of older males, all trying to earn their spot in November's Breeders' Cup Classic. Ten horses have entered, including the top three finishers from the grade III Cougar II Handicap and three grade I winners.
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is The Usual Q. T. He is a two time grade I winner, having won the Hollywood Derby last November and the Eddie Read last month. He is nearly unstoppable on turf, having won eight of ten races on the grass.
However, his five starts on synthetic tracks have yielded poor results, with three seconds in maiden special weight races being his best performances over the surface. In his last start on a synthetic track, he finished last of nine in the Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes.
Awesome Gem is another obvious contender. He will be making his fourth consecutive appearance in this race, having finished second in 2007 and seventh in both 2008 and 2009. He is arguably in the best form of his life, and comes off of a sharp win in the grade I Hollywood Gold Cup over Rail Trip. However, Del Mar's Polytrack may not be his best surface.
Somewhat amazing is the fact that Battle of Hastings is 10-1. Yes, he has not won since last July, when he proved victorious in the grade II Virginia Derby by a head, but bad trips and very late runs have plagued him since then. He comes into the Pacific Classic off of a narrow loss to Dakota Phone in the San Diego Handicap, his first start on a synthetic track. He has shown the ability to challenge The Usual Q. T. in the past and is definitely a contender.
Richard's Kid, who won the Pacific Classic in a 24-1 upset last year, is back to try and win it again. He has only won once since then, in the grade II San Antonio Handicap, but ran pretty well in the Dubai World Cup earlier this year and should be in the mix on Saturday. A mile and a quarter is probably his best distance too.
But despite all of these fabulous horses, I'm going to go with the 8-1 sixth choice Hold Me Back. His win in the grade III Dominion Day Handicap last month was a fine performance and I think that he is going to take to the Del Mar Polytrack very well. Is he good enough? Perhaps not. But you never know what is going to happen on Polytrack.
So here are my full picks. . .
1 Hold Me Back
2 Battle of Hastings
3 Awesome Gem
4 Richard's Kid
5 Dakota Phone
6 The Usual Q.T.
7 Crowded House
8 Temple City
9 Unusual Suspect
10 Isle of Giant's
I'm going to go against The Usual Q. T. because he is unproven over synthetic surfaces. He seems to be different horse on grass; by far his best performances have come on grass. Awesome Gem is in the form of his life, and believe me I'll be cheering for him, but I don't think he is as good at Del Mar as he is elsewhere.
J.R. has different thoughts. I'll let his picks speak for him . . .
1 Crowded House
2 Richard's Kid
3 Temple City
4 Dakota Phone
5 Battle of Hastings
6 Hold Me Back
7 Awesome Gem
8 The Usual Q.T.
9 Isle of Giant's
10 Unusual Suspect
He was very impressed with Crowded House in the Eddie Read and feels that he is ready to step up and win the Pacific Classic. Once again, we'll see who does better, him or me.
KING'S BISHOP STAKES (gr. I)
Discreetly Mine or D' Funnybone? That is the question that everyone is asking.
They have met once before, in the grade II Woody Stephens Stakes. Discreetly Mine hooked up with Eightyfiveinafifty and D' Funnybone, who had been tracking in third, blew past both of them to win.
Since then, Discreetly Mine has raced twice, winning the grade III Jersey Shore Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths and the grade II Amsterdam Stakes by 8 3/4. D' Funnybone has raced once, losing the grade III Carry Back Stakes by a length to Coffee Boy.
But they are not the only worthy contenders. Bulldogger was very impressive winning an allowance race last time out. Hurricane Ike looked great winning the Derby Trial over a very classy field, and whatever you do, don't forget about Bank Merger. The undefeated son of Consolidator made up a huge amount of ground in his last start, an allowance race, to win by a length and a quarter.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Discreetly Mine
2 Bank Merger
3 D' Funnybone
4 Bulldogger
5 Hurricane Ike
6 In Jack's Memory
7 Latigo Shore
I expect a pretty good speed duel between Discreetly Mine and D' Funnybone, and I think that Discreetly Mine is going to emerge victorious, with Bank Marger flying late to grab second from a tiring D' Funnybone.
BALLERINA STAKES (gr. I)
The grade I Ballerina Stakes has drawn a very nice field of eight fillies, led by the 2009 Eclipse champion female sprinter Informed Decision. Last year, she won six of her seven starts, culminating with a win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint over Ventura. However, she has had a rather disappointing 2010, losing both the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes and grade I Humana Distaff, races she won in 2009. She did rebound with wins in the grade III Chicago Handicap and the ungraded Windward Stakes, but looks vulnerable here. She also appears to be better on synthetic surfaces, and was unable to win this race last year.
The horse I like is Qualia. She comes into the Ballerina off of a fast-closing second to Rightly So in the seven furlong grade III Bed o' Roses Handicap last month. She seems to be getting better and has never finished worse than second in six starts.
Speaking of Rightly So, she is set to run in the Ballerina Stakes too. She has never finished worse than third in ten starts, winning six of them, and is capable of taking this field wire-to-wire if the pace is reasonable enough.
Jessica is Back and Warbling are other logical contenders. Jessica is Back comes off of a grade I win in the Princess Rooney Handicap, and Warbling comes off of a third in the Honorable Miss Handicap, a race in which the front running filly blew the break and was forced to rally from last. Prior to that she finished second in the Princess Rooney.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Qualia
2 Informed Decision
3 Warbling
4 Rightly So
5 Jessica is Back
6 Pretty Prolific
7 Devil by Design
8 First Passage
I believe that Warbling and Rightly So are going to hook up on the lead, setting a blazing pace that will allow Qualia to close from the clouds and claim the victory. Informed Decision is probably the most talented horse in the race on a synthetic track, but I don't think that she can win here.
BALLSTON SPAR HANDICAP (gr. II)
Why is Danzon 20-1?
Okay, that isn't the greatest way to begin my analysis of the Ballston Spa Handicap, but it is the first thing that came to mind. When the entries first came out, I glanced at the runners. I quickly picked Danzon to win, and then when I sat down to write this post I realized that she was 20-1.
Why is she 20-1?
All right, perhaps she isn't in the greatest form of her life, but she has been very consistent lately, and don't forget that in 2007 she did finish third in the grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes against males while defeating the likes of Better Talk Now, Einstein, and Go Between. That was a long time ago, but just the same, it shows that she has class.
Even though Churchill Downs seems to be her favorite track, I am going to pick her here and hope that the seven year old mare turns on that late rally that she has shown so many times before.
Miss Keller is the morning line favorite, based off of her impressive win in the ungraded De La Rose Stakes last time out. In that race, she closed from well back to win the one mile race in 1:34 4/5. However, she had shown only average form prior to that race.
Phola is the second choice and deserves to be, for her last few races have been very good. Back in June, she finished second, beaten a half-length by Proviso, in the grade I Just a Game Handicap at one mile. In her last race, she finished sixth in the grade I Diana Stakes but was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Danzon
2 Dynaslew
3 Maram
4 Mekong Melody
5 Phola
6 Miss Keller
7 Cherokee Queen
8 Strike the Bell
9 Scolara
10 Silver Reunion
What a solid set of fillies! Just about anyone in the race could win. It's going to be a good one to watch, and it should have a strong influence on the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf later this year.
PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES (gr. I)
This is it.
The big test.
Is Rachel Alexandra the same filly that she was last year?
For the first time since last September, the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra will be taking on grade I company. Her four starts this year have been less than stellar, losing the ungraded New Orleans Ladies' Stakes and the grade II La Troinne before winning the grade II Fleur de Lis and the ungraded Lady's Secret Stakes. She does not seem to be quite the same filly that she was last year, but she can prove that she is on Sunday when she runs in the Personal Ensign Stakes.
It will be a true challenge for the champion filly. The distance is a mile and a quarter, a distance at which she has never run. Also, she has never had a filly or mare quite like Life at Ten breathing down her neck.
Life at Ten has won six straight races, including the grade I Ogden Phipps at a mile and the grade II Delaware Handicap at this mile and a quarter distance. Her running style is identical to Rachel Alexandra's. Can she possibly stay with the Horse of the Year, and more importantly, can she outduel the Horse of the Year to win the race?
It's very possible. But I'm going to pick Rachel Alexandra anyway. I believe that she is finally going to return to form and get on track for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Here are my complete picks. . .
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Life at Ten
3 Miss Singhsix
4 Classofsixtythree
5 Persistently
This is going to be a race to see. I won't miss it for anything.
OTHER PICKS
PAT O' BRIEN STAKES (gr. I)
1 Smiling Tiger
2 E Z's Gentleman
3 Sangaree
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Tropic Storm
6 El Brujo
7 New Bay
8 Hard Bill
9 Leaving New York
10 Kanan Dume
DEL MAR MILE HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Blue Chagall
2 Enriched
3 Bruce's Dream
4 Scenic Blast
5 Meteore
6 Golden Mexico
7 Moudez
MOLLY PITCHER HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Malibu Prayer
2 Queen Martha
3 Milwaukee Appeal
4 Just Jenda
5 Unforgotten
6 Stage Trick
It's going to be a tremendous weekend of racing! Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Still left to be run at Saratoga are the Ballerina Stakes, Ballston Spa Handicap, King's Bishop Stakes, Travers Stakes, Victory Ride Stakes, Personal Ensign Stakes, With Anticipation Stakes, Forego, The Woodward, Saranac Stakes, Spinaway Stakes, Glens Falls Handicap, and Hopeful Stakes. Eight of those are grade I stakes races. Six of them will be run this weekend.
Therefore, Saratoga will be the host of this week's feature race, the grade I Travers Stakes for three year olds.
FEATURE RACE: TRAVERS STAKES (gr. I)
Frequently referred to as the "Midsummer Derby", the Travers Stakes is one of the oldest races in the United States. Every year the race helps sort out the often muddled three year old division, with the winner always gaining a shot at earning the three year old championship. Summer Bird, Colonel John, Street Sense, Bernardini, Flower Alley, Birdstone, Ten Most Wanted, Medaglia d'Oro, and Point Given have been the last nine winners. Who will win the 141st Travers Stakes? Let's take a look at who's running.
#1: MINER'S RESERVE (12-1)
It's hard to believe that this is the same colt that finished tenth, beaten thirty-four lengths, in the Florida Derby. His last three starts have been terrific, beginning with an impressive win in an allowance race at Belmont Park, followed by a sharp second to A Little Warm in another allowance race. As good as these efforts were, he turned in a breakthrough performance in his last start, the grade II Jim Dandy, where he ran second once again to A Little Warm while defeating classy stakes winners Afleet Express and Fly Down. However, he may not have the necessary stamina to take this field wire-to-wire, especially with First Dude, Super Saver, and A Little Warm all pushing the pace.
#2: TRAPPE SHOT (4-1)
The second choice on the morning line, Trappe Shot has won four of his last five races. His last start was very impressive, as he ran second to leading three year old and Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky in the Haskell Invitational. Finishing behind him were First Dude, Super Saver, Afleet Again, and Ice Box. But like Miner's Reserve, Trappe Shot may not have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter against this group. But he definitely deserves a chance.
#3: ADMIRAL ALEX (12-1)
When Leon Blusiewicz announced that he intended to run Admiral Alex in the Travers, it came as a bit of a surprise. Yes, Admiral Alex is undefeated. But he has only raced once, winning a maiden special weight by a length here at Saratoga on July 31st. It was a rather impressive performance, however, so he certainly could be a contender. He would probably benefit from a fast pace, which would allow him to sit just off the lead and get first run at the leaders in the home stretch.
#4: FIRST DUDE (8-1)
If one was to glance at First Dude's racing summary, one would get the impression that First Dude is a nice allowance horse. After all, he has only won once in nine starts. But First Dude is much more than an allowance horse. Along with his one win--a maiden special weight--he has finished second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont, Haskell, and Blue Grass. That is the career of a very good race horse who deserves a shot at winning the Midsummer Derby. However, he has had a long, hard campaign and may not be at his best.
#5: A LITTLE WARM (7-2)
What A Little Warm has accomplished since he started racing last June is truly amazing. It took the colt four tries to break his maiden, but since doing so he has reeled off five consecutive first or second place finishes, four of them in stakes races. His streak began with his 2010 debut in the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which he won while easily defeating Discreetly Mine, who finished a dismal fourth in the slop. He then finished second in the Hutcheson Stakes to D' Funnybone and second in the Lousiana Derby to Mission Impazible.
Running in the Preakness Stakes was considered, but the colt with withdrawn after failing a post-workout endoscopic examination. Given a lengthy break, he returned in an allowance optional claiming race at Delaware Park which he won by just over two lengths. Stepped up to stakes company once again, he answered the big class question by winning Jim Dandy over Miner's Reserve, Afleet Express, Fly Down, and others. He looks like the deserving favorite here today, and would be an even stronger favorite if the track turns up sloppy.
#6: ICE BOX (10-1)
Ice Box looked to have an unlimited future back in March after just getting up to win the Florida Derby by a nose. His future seemed even brighter when he finished a fast closing second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby after a disastrous trip. However, he has been extremely disappointing since then, finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes and sixth of seven in the Haskell. A fast pace and slop would really help this colt.
#7: AFLEET EXPRESS (6-1)
Immediately after this colt broke his maiden, I was extremely excited about him. I had the feeling that he was going to turn out to be something very special. Although he was somewhat disappointing in two allowance races following his first win, I never gave up hope that he might someday turn into something special.
In his fourth start, coming off of a three month layoff, the Afleet Express that I had imagined finally showed up. The colt won an allowance race at Belmont Park by nearly eight lengths, and then proceeded to win over Afleet Again, Soaring Empire, Nacho Friend, Jackson Bend, and Schoolyard Dreams in the grade III Pegasus Stakes. Although he could only finish third in the Jim Dandy, he is still a major contender on Saturday and should relish the mile and a quarter.
#8: FLY DOWN (8-1)
Just how good is Fly Down? This question has yet to be answered. He began 2010 with an allowance win by a head over First Dude, but then finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby as the third choice. Given a bit of a rest, he turned in a very dominating performance in the Dwyer Stakes, winning by six lengths over Drosselmeyer. The order of finish was reversed, however, in the Belmont Stakes, where Drosselmeyer defeated Fly Down by three quarters of a length. Based off of this strong form, Fly Down was favored to win the Jim Dandy and did make a strong move to reach contention but flattened out and finished fifth, beaten three and a half lengths. Seeing that his best performances have come at Belmont Park, it is possible that Fly Down is a true "horse for the course" and may not be as good anywhere else.
#9: FRIEND OR FOE (15-1)
The biggest question that this New York-bred has to answer is: can he get the distance? He made his first start in March of this year, winning a maiden special weight, and proceeded to knock off an allowance race and the Mike Lee Stakes, the latter in which he beat heavy favorite Ibboyee, who returned to win the New York Derby and finish a close second in the Albany Stakes. However, when Friend or Foe attempted to race beyond seven furlongs for the first time, in the nine furlong Jim Dandy Stakes, he finished fourth while unable to stay with the top three finishers. On the other hand, he was three wide on both turns and did finish ahead of Fly Down.
#10: AFLEET AGAIN (30-1)
The longshot on the morning line, inconsistent is the word that best describes Afleet Again. One minute he is charging from the clouds, weaving down the stretch to hit the board--or even win--a respectable stakes race. The next minute you are left wondering "Is he a stakes horse or a claimer?" Afleet Again began 2010 with a badly beaten fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes. Then he won an allowance race at Philadelphia Park by a length before finishing a fast closing second to Peppi Knows in the ungraded Whirlaway Stakes, a race that was memorable because the heavy favorite, Eightfiveinafifty, failed to make the first turn and threw his rider. This performance was followed by a last-place finish in the grade III Gotham Stakes, well behind victorious Awesome Act. He then pulled a stunning upset in the grade III Withers Stakes before finishing a fast-closing but weaving third in the Spend a Buck Stakes behind Ibboyee and Our Dark Knight. A second in the Pegasus Stakes was followed by a fifth in the Haskell, which brings us to the Travers. A blazing fast pace would help set up his late run, but he doesn't seem to be quite good enough here.
#11: SUPER SAVER (6-1)
Super Saver has had a good, but not great year. One of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby following a dominating performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, he began the year by finishing a close third to Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams in the Tampa Bay Derby. A sharp second to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby set him up for the Kentucky Derby, which he won by two and a half lengths in the slop. Sent off as the favorite in the Preakness Stakes, he got in a perfect position but failed to menace at all, fading badly on the far turn to finish eighth, well behind winner Lookin at Lucky. Given a long break, he returned in the Haskell Invitational. On the far turn it looked like he was going to give Lookin at Lucky a fight, but he flattened out and finished fourth, missing second by three quarters of a length. If it pours rain on Saturday, then you can't ignore Super Saver.
Now, having discussed all eleven runners, it's time to make my picks.
Here they are. . .
1 Afleet Express
2 A Little Warm
3 Trappe Shot
4 Super Saver
5 First Dude
6 Ice Box
7 Fly Down
8 Miner's Reserve
9 Afleet Again
10 Admiral Alex
11 Friend or Foe
I'm going to stick with Afleet Express once again. Perhaps I am biased toward him since I have liked him since last December, but I honestly believe that he is capable of great things. A Little Warm is obviously the one to beat, but I'm not quite sure that he can go a mile and a quarter against this group. Trappe Shot is very nice horse, but I'm very worried about his distance abilities.
J.R., however, is not.
For those of you who have not thoroughly read my prior posts, J.R. is my friend who enjoys handicapping the races with me. He has absolutely no doubts about Trappe Shot's distance ability and feels that the colt will win impressively on Saturday.
Amazingly, he has picked Admiral Alex for second. He doesn't think that A Little Warm is as good as everyone thinks he is. Also, he is intrigued by the other two Afleet Alex sons, Afleet Express and Afleet Again, and is mulling over the possibility of an all Afleet Alex trifecta.
Here are his full picks. . .
1 Trappe Shot
2 Admiral Alex
3 Afleet Axpress
4 Ice Box
5 Afleet Again
6 First Dude
7 A Little Warm
8 Super Saver
9 Fly Down
10 Friend or Foe
11 Miner's Reserve
It's a handicapping contest! Whose picks will finish better, mine or J.R.'s? Who do you like?
OTHER NOTABLE RACES
PACIFIC CLASSIC (gr. I)
As usual, the Pacific Classic has drawn a well-matched field of older males, all trying to earn their spot in November's Breeders' Cup Classic. Ten horses have entered, including the top three finishers from the grade III Cougar II Handicap and three grade I winners.
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is The Usual Q. T. He is a two time grade I winner, having won the Hollywood Derby last November and the Eddie Read last month. He is nearly unstoppable on turf, having won eight of ten races on the grass.
However, his five starts on synthetic tracks have yielded poor results, with three seconds in maiden special weight races being his best performances over the surface. In his last start on a synthetic track, he finished last of nine in the Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes.
Awesome Gem is another obvious contender. He will be making his fourth consecutive appearance in this race, having finished second in 2007 and seventh in both 2008 and 2009. He is arguably in the best form of his life, and comes off of a sharp win in the grade I Hollywood Gold Cup over Rail Trip. However, Del Mar's Polytrack may not be his best surface.
Somewhat amazing is the fact that Battle of Hastings is 10-1. Yes, he has not won since last July, when he proved victorious in the grade II Virginia Derby by a head, but bad trips and very late runs have plagued him since then. He comes into the Pacific Classic off of a narrow loss to Dakota Phone in the San Diego Handicap, his first start on a synthetic track. He has shown the ability to challenge The Usual Q. T. in the past and is definitely a contender.
Richard's Kid, who won the Pacific Classic in a 24-1 upset last year, is back to try and win it again. He has only won once since then, in the grade II San Antonio Handicap, but ran pretty well in the Dubai World Cup earlier this year and should be in the mix on Saturday. A mile and a quarter is probably his best distance too.
But despite all of these fabulous horses, I'm going to go with the 8-1 sixth choice Hold Me Back. His win in the grade III Dominion Day Handicap last month was a fine performance and I think that he is going to take to the Del Mar Polytrack very well. Is he good enough? Perhaps not. But you never know what is going to happen on Polytrack.
So here are my full picks. . .
1 Hold Me Back
2 Battle of Hastings
3 Awesome Gem
4 Richard's Kid
5 Dakota Phone
6 The Usual Q.T.
7 Crowded House
8 Temple City
9 Unusual Suspect
10 Isle of Giant's
I'm going to go against The Usual Q. T. because he is unproven over synthetic surfaces. He seems to be different horse on grass; by far his best performances have come on grass. Awesome Gem is in the form of his life, and believe me I'll be cheering for him, but I don't think he is as good at Del Mar as he is elsewhere.
J.R. has different thoughts. I'll let his picks speak for him . . .
1 Crowded House
2 Richard's Kid
3 Temple City
4 Dakota Phone
5 Battle of Hastings
6 Hold Me Back
7 Awesome Gem
8 The Usual Q.T.
9 Isle of Giant's
10 Unusual Suspect
He was very impressed with Crowded House in the Eddie Read and feels that he is ready to step up and win the Pacific Classic. Once again, we'll see who does better, him or me.
KING'S BISHOP STAKES (gr. I)
Discreetly Mine or D' Funnybone? That is the question that everyone is asking.
They have met once before, in the grade II Woody Stephens Stakes. Discreetly Mine hooked up with Eightyfiveinafifty and D' Funnybone, who had been tracking in third, blew past both of them to win.
Since then, Discreetly Mine has raced twice, winning the grade III Jersey Shore Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths and the grade II Amsterdam Stakes by 8 3/4. D' Funnybone has raced once, losing the grade III Carry Back Stakes by a length to Coffee Boy.
But they are not the only worthy contenders. Bulldogger was very impressive winning an allowance race last time out. Hurricane Ike looked great winning the Derby Trial over a very classy field, and whatever you do, don't forget about Bank Merger. The undefeated son of Consolidator made up a huge amount of ground in his last start, an allowance race, to win by a length and a quarter.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Discreetly Mine
2 Bank Merger
3 D' Funnybone
4 Bulldogger
5 Hurricane Ike
6 In Jack's Memory
7 Latigo Shore
I expect a pretty good speed duel between Discreetly Mine and D' Funnybone, and I think that Discreetly Mine is going to emerge victorious, with Bank Marger flying late to grab second from a tiring D' Funnybone.
BALLERINA STAKES (gr. I)
The grade I Ballerina Stakes has drawn a very nice field of eight fillies, led by the 2009 Eclipse champion female sprinter Informed Decision. Last year, she won six of her seven starts, culminating with a win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint over Ventura. However, she has had a rather disappointing 2010, losing both the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes and grade I Humana Distaff, races she won in 2009. She did rebound with wins in the grade III Chicago Handicap and the ungraded Windward Stakes, but looks vulnerable here. She also appears to be better on synthetic surfaces, and was unable to win this race last year.
The horse I like is Qualia. She comes into the Ballerina off of a fast-closing second to Rightly So in the seven furlong grade III Bed o' Roses Handicap last month. She seems to be getting better and has never finished worse than second in six starts.
Speaking of Rightly So, she is set to run in the Ballerina Stakes too. She has never finished worse than third in ten starts, winning six of them, and is capable of taking this field wire-to-wire if the pace is reasonable enough.
Jessica is Back and Warbling are other logical contenders. Jessica is Back comes off of a grade I win in the Princess Rooney Handicap, and Warbling comes off of a third in the Honorable Miss Handicap, a race in which the front running filly blew the break and was forced to rally from last. Prior to that she finished second in the Princess Rooney.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Qualia
2 Informed Decision
3 Warbling
4 Rightly So
5 Jessica is Back
6 Pretty Prolific
7 Devil by Design
8 First Passage
I believe that Warbling and Rightly So are going to hook up on the lead, setting a blazing pace that will allow Qualia to close from the clouds and claim the victory. Informed Decision is probably the most talented horse in the race on a synthetic track, but I don't think that she can win here.
BALLSTON SPAR HANDICAP (gr. II)
Why is Danzon 20-1?
Okay, that isn't the greatest way to begin my analysis of the Ballston Spa Handicap, but it is the first thing that came to mind. When the entries first came out, I glanced at the runners. I quickly picked Danzon to win, and then when I sat down to write this post I realized that she was 20-1.
Why is she 20-1?
All right, perhaps she isn't in the greatest form of her life, but she has been very consistent lately, and don't forget that in 2007 she did finish third in the grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes against males while defeating the likes of Better Talk Now, Einstein, and Go Between. That was a long time ago, but just the same, it shows that she has class.
Even though Churchill Downs seems to be her favorite track, I am going to pick her here and hope that the seven year old mare turns on that late rally that she has shown so many times before.
Miss Keller is the morning line favorite, based off of her impressive win in the ungraded De La Rose Stakes last time out. In that race, she closed from well back to win the one mile race in 1:34 4/5. However, she had shown only average form prior to that race.
Phola is the second choice and deserves to be, for her last few races have been very good. Back in June, she finished second, beaten a half-length by Proviso, in the grade I Just a Game Handicap at one mile. In her last race, she finished sixth in the grade I Diana Stakes but was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Danzon
2 Dynaslew
3 Maram
4 Mekong Melody
5 Phola
6 Miss Keller
7 Cherokee Queen
8 Strike the Bell
9 Scolara
10 Silver Reunion
What a solid set of fillies! Just about anyone in the race could win. It's going to be a good one to watch, and it should have a strong influence on the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf later this year.
PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES (gr. I)
This is it.
The big test.
Is Rachel Alexandra the same filly that she was last year?
For the first time since last September, the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra will be taking on grade I company. Her four starts this year have been less than stellar, losing the ungraded New Orleans Ladies' Stakes and the grade II La Troinne before winning the grade II Fleur de Lis and the ungraded Lady's Secret Stakes. She does not seem to be quite the same filly that she was last year, but she can prove that she is on Sunday when she runs in the Personal Ensign Stakes.
It will be a true challenge for the champion filly. The distance is a mile and a quarter, a distance at which she has never run. Also, she has never had a filly or mare quite like Life at Ten breathing down her neck.
Life at Ten has won six straight races, including the grade I Ogden Phipps at a mile and the grade II Delaware Handicap at this mile and a quarter distance. Her running style is identical to Rachel Alexandra's. Can she possibly stay with the Horse of the Year, and more importantly, can she outduel the Horse of the Year to win the race?
It's very possible. But I'm going to pick Rachel Alexandra anyway. I believe that she is finally going to return to form and get on track for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Here are my complete picks. . .
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Life at Ten
3 Miss Singhsix
4 Classofsixtythree
5 Persistently
This is going to be a race to see. I won't miss it for anything.
OTHER PICKS
PAT O' BRIEN STAKES (gr. I)
1 Smiling Tiger
2 E Z's Gentleman
3 Sangaree
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Tropic Storm
6 El Brujo
7 New Bay
8 Hard Bill
9 Leaving New York
10 Kanan Dume
DEL MAR MILE HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Blue Chagall
2 Enriched
3 Bruce's Dream
4 Scenic Blast
5 Meteore
6 Golden Mexico
7 Moudez
MOLLY PITCHER HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Malibu Prayer
2 Queen Martha
3 Milwaukee Appeal
4 Just Jenda
5 Unforgotten
6 Stage Trick
It's going to be a tremendous weekend of racing! Enjoy!
-Keelerman
KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS August 27th, 2010
(Rankings for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf will begin in early September.)
CLASSIC
1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Quality Road
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 Awesome Gem
TURF
1 Fame and Glory
2 Debussy
3 Gio Ponti
4 Paddy O'Prado
5 Chinchon
MILE
1 Goldikova
2 Sidney's Candy
3 Paco Boy
4 Proviso
5 Mafki
SPRINT
1 Majesticperfection
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Big Drama
4 Kinsale King
5 Here Comes Ben
LADIES' CLASSIC
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Blind Luck
3 Life at Ten
4 Havre de Grace
5 Devil May Care
FILLY & MARE TURF
1 Midday
2 Forever Together
3 Dar Re Mi
4 Stacelita
5 Eclair de Lune
DIRT MILE
1 Vineyard Haven
2 A Little Warm
3 Trappe Shot
4 Twirling Candy
5 Haynesfield
FILLY & MARE SPRINT
1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Informed Decision
4 Qualia
5 Sweet August Moon
TURF SPRINT
1 California Flag
2 Chamberlain Bridge
3 Silver Timber
4 Rose Catherine
5 Fleeting Spirit
MARATHON
1 Cloudy's Knight
2 Temple City
3 Unusual Suspect
4 Helicopter
5 Eldaafer
JUVENILE
1 Kantharos
2 Boys at Tosconova
3 J P's Gusto
4 Maybesomaybenot
5 Wine Police
JUVENILE FILLIES
1 Position Limit
2 Wickedly Perfect
3 Awesome Feather
4 Final Mesa
5 Le Mi Geaux
CLASSIC
1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Quality Road
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 Awesome Gem
TURF
1 Fame and Glory
2 Debussy
3 Gio Ponti
4 Paddy O'Prado
5 Chinchon
MILE
1 Goldikova
2 Sidney's Candy
3 Paco Boy
4 Proviso
5 Mafki
SPRINT
1 Majesticperfection
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Big Drama
4 Kinsale King
5 Here Comes Ben
LADIES' CLASSIC
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Blind Luck
3 Life at Ten
4 Havre de Grace
5 Devil May Care
FILLY & MARE TURF
1 Midday
2 Forever Together
3 Dar Re Mi
4 Stacelita
5 Eclair de Lune
DIRT MILE
1 Vineyard Haven
2 A Little Warm
3 Trappe Shot
4 Twirling Candy
5 Haynesfield
FILLY & MARE SPRINT
1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Informed Decision
4 Qualia
5 Sweet August Moon
TURF SPRINT
1 California Flag
2 Chamberlain Bridge
3 Silver Timber
4 Rose Catherine
5 Fleeting Spirit
MARATHON
1 Cloudy's Knight
2 Temple City
3 Unusual Suspect
4 Helicopter
5 Eldaafer
JUVENILE
1 Kantharos
2 Boys at Tosconova
3 J P's Gusto
4 Maybesomaybenot
5 Wine Police
JUVENILE FILLIES
1 Position Limit
2 Wickedly Perfect
3 Awesome Feather
4 Final Mesa
5 Le Mi Geaux
WELCOME TO MY REVISED BLOG
Yes, I know that it has been a while since my last post. Yes, I haven't been keeping up with the news as well as I should. However, there was a reason for the lack of posts.
Over the last couple weeks I have been thinking about changing the style of my blog. Discussing each and every race leading up the Breeders' Cup, like I did with the Triple Crown prep races, just wasn't working. There are too many Breeders' Cup prep races to possibly discuss them all thoroughly. So I decided to change how my blog works.
From now on, there will be one or two feature races each week, where I thoroughly discuss each runner. There will also be brief analysis of other notable races, where I discuss the favorites and my picks.
I will also post my "Breeders' Cup Rankings", which will consist of my top five picks for each Breeders' Cup race. They will be similar to my "Top Twenty" posts from this spring.
Finally, I will do an "In the Spotlight" post each week, focusing on one potential Breeders' Cup starter.
It's going to be a fun ten weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup! Let's go examine some races!
-Keelerman
Over the last couple weeks I have been thinking about changing the style of my blog. Discussing each and every race leading up the Breeders' Cup, like I did with the Triple Crown prep races, just wasn't working. There are too many Breeders' Cup prep races to possibly discuss them all thoroughly. So I decided to change how my blog works.
From now on, there will be one or two feature races each week, where I thoroughly discuss each runner. There will also be brief analysis of other notable races, where I discuss the favorites and my picks.
I will also post my "Breeders' Cup Rankings", which will consist of my top five picks for each Breeders' Cup race. They will be similar to my "Top Twenty" posts from this spring.
Finally, I will do an "In the Spotlight" post each week, focusing on one potential Breeders' Cup starter.
It's going to be a fun ten weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup! Let's go examine some races!
-Keelerman
Saturday, August 07, 2010
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- August 6th
Zenyatta! Quality Road! Blame! Mine That Bird! Haynesfield! Concord Point! Champagne d'Oro! There's a star-studded weekend of racing coming up that mustn’t be missed! Several huge steps toward the Breeders' Cup will be taken --- can Zenyatta continue her unbeaten streak? Let's take a look at what's being run, beginning with the Whitney Handicap!
WHITNEY HANDICAP (gr. I)
Saratoga, 9 Furlongs on dirt
This is it. The first leg of the all-new "Handicap Triple Crown". The field may be short on runners, but not on talent. The 83rd running of the grade I Whitney Handicap has drawn a spectacular field of runners, led by division leader Quality Road, who seeks to add a fourth grade I win to his résumé.
However, as good as Quality Road is, winning the Whitney won't be a stroll in the park. Lined up to challenge him are Blame, winner of the Clark and Stephen Foster Handicaps; Mine That Bird, winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby; and Haynesfield, winner of four straight including the Suburban Handicap last time out.
Here are my detailed thoughts on each runner. . .
#1: Mine That Bird
The Birdstone gelding has not won since last year's Derby, but returns to dirt for the first time in over a year. He always tries hard and should get the needed pace scenario with both Quality Road and Haynesfield wanting to be on the lead. He has been training nicely and with only 118 pounds on his back, he should be coming late. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.
#2: Blame
The son of Arch just keeps getting better and no one really knows how good he is. His run in the Stephen Foster was hugely impressive, and won't get caught four wide on both turns this time around. He has a spectacular pedigree backing him up and will likely be the first to engage Quality Road in the stretch. He will carry 121 pounds and will be ridden by Garrett Gomez. He is trained by Albert Stall Jr.
#3: Quality Road
What can I say? The son of Elusive Quality is a monster. He can show Dr. Fager-like speed when he needs to and has run well at a mile and a quarter. But can he win a race like the Whitney at the Graveyard of Champions? Perhaps. After all, he has yet to win a championship title! His win in the Donn Handicap was one of the most impressive performances of the year, and he does own a track record here at Saratoga. But can he hold off Blame and Mine That Bird with 126 pounds on his back? We'll see. He will be ridden by John Velazquez and is trained by Todd Pletcher.
#4: Haynesfield
This improving son of Speightstown could surprise everyone with a shocking win if he runs like he did in the Suburban Handicap. Like Blame, he is relatively untested, and could prove to be more than Quality Road can handle. He has the same running style as the latter, and it could turn into a real battle if they both decide to go for the lead. He gets into the race with only 116 pounds, ten less than Quality Road, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.
#5: Jardim
The longshot here with morning line odds of 30-1, the Brazilian-bred son of Ski Champ has not shown much since coming to the United States. In his last start, he finished second in an allowance race, beaten a head. He doesn't seem to match up here, but with Julien Leparoux in the saddle, he could spoil some trifectas by rallying for third. He will carry 113 pounds and is trained by E. Caramori.
#6: Musket Man
A son of Yonaguska, Musket Man has had a very unlucky career. A third in the Kentucky Derby. A third in the Preakness. A second in the Carter Handicap. A second in the Met Mile. Will he finally win a grade I race this Saturday? He was closing in on Quality Road in the Met Mile and with the extra distance, he should be right there. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He is trained by D. Ryan.
Obviously, it is a difficult race to handicap. In my opinion, Quality Road will have to run a perfect race to win. If Velezquez decides to let Haynesfield set the pace, the latter might just run away from everyone and steal the race. If Velezquez sends Quality Road to challenge Haynesfield early, then Blame, Mine That Bird, and Musket Man are going to come like freight trains from all directions. Velezquez is going to have to ride the perfect race: Stay in touch with Haynesfield but don't go too fast early. Or, go to the lead and hope that Haynesfield doesn't do the same.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Mine That Bird
2 Quality Road
3 Blame
4 Musket Man
5 Haynesfield
6 Jardim
I feel that Quality Road is going to be sent to the lead and just get caught by Mine That Bird in the final strides, with Blame rallying for third. Musket Man should be right there as well, no more than three or four lengths behind Mine That Bird. As much as I like Haynesfield, I don't think that he can stay with Quality Road if he should try and run with him early.
Whatever happens, it's going to be a fun race to watch!
CLEMENT L. HIRSCH STAKES (gr. I)
Del Mar, 8.5 Furlongs on Polytrack
Seventeen-for-seventeen.
Not many horses can claim that.
Zenyatta can.
The $300,000 grade I Clement L. Hirsch Stakes has done the same thing that it has for the past two years --- attracted the great champion Zenyatta. Can she extend her unbeaten streak to eighteen? Can she win the Clement Hirsch for the third straight year?
There are many questions to be answered. Some have said that Zenyatta is not as good as she was last year, or even the year before. I, on the other hand, think that she is better than ever before.
Is a mile and a sixteenth her best distance? Not really. But she has won at this distance many times. And unlike her last start, she won't be giving away a huge amount of weight.
Let's take a look at who's running. . .
#1: Princess Taylor
This fine mare comes into the Clement Hirsch off of a runner-up performance in the grade III Beverly Hills Handicap at a mile and a quarter on turf. In that race, she set the pace before giving in late. Can she handle synthetic surfaces? Perhaps. But she should appreciate the turn back in distance. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza. She is trained by P. Gallagher.
#2: Made for Magic
The only graded stakes winner in the field besides Zenyatta, Made for Magic won the grade II Vanity Handicap back in May. But she has run poorly in two starts since then. Also, she likes to come from as far back as Zenyatta, which means that she could end up being in the same situation Life is Sweet was in last year. But she has talent and should rally for a share. She will be ridden by O. Berrio and is trained by A. Avila.
#3: Spring Style
This five year old mare really hasn't shown much in his last few starts, although her running style of sitting just off the lead should help here. She comes into the Clement Hirsch off of a seventh-place finish in the Osunitas Stakes. She will carry 119 pounds on Saturday and will be ridden by P. Valenzuela. She is trained by B. Cecil.
#4: Dance to my Tune
To date, this front-running mare's best performance came in the grade I Santa Margarita Handicap, where she was beaten a length and a quarter by Zenyatta after having a three length lead at the eighth pole. However, she will likely be challenged for the lead this time by Princess Taylor and Rinterval, which could mean a decent pace for Zenyatta to close into. Dance to my Tune will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by David Flores. She is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
#5: Zenyatta
The 2009 Clement Hirsch Stakes will always be remembered as the race Zenyatta won by a head. Hopefully, she will come through and win by a larger margin this year. The great mare comes into this race off of a half-length score in the Vanity Handicap over St. Trinians, whom she was giving nine pounds. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer John Shirreffs feel that the race did Zenyatta good and that she is ready to run on Saturday. If they choose to run her. At the time I am writing this, John Shirreffs has still not fully committed Zenyatta to running. But if she does, she will carry top weight of 123 pounds.
#6: Rinterval
This fine filly stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth after just being defeated by champion Informed Decision in the seven furlong Chicago Handicap. She will likely go to the lead, and if she can slow the pace down, she might just have enough left to hold off Zenyatta's late run. But can she stretch out? She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. She is trained by E. Reed.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Zenyatta
2 Princess Taylor
3 Rinterval
4 Dance to my Tune
5 Made for Magic
6 Spring Style
I don't think that anyone can beat Zenyatta today. Not even with a slow pace. She is ready to run huge.
I like Princess Taylor for second for many reasons, including her solid performance in the Beverly Hills.
Go Zenyatta!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Here are a few of my other picks for this weekend's races. . .
WEST VIRGINIA DERBY (gr. II)
1 Concord Point
2 Nacho Friend
3 Thiskyhasnolimit
4 Skipshot
5 Exhi
6 Gunfighter
7 Not Abroad
8 Shookstown Road
9 Toh's Grey Cat
TEST STAKES (gr. I)
1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Belle of the Hall
3 Bonnie Blue Flag
4 Pica Slew
5 Buckleupbuttercup
6 Ash Zee
7 Tidal Pool
8 Christine Daae
9 Lovely Lil
ALFRED G. VANDERBILT STAKES (gr. I)
1 Big Drama
2 Gayego
3 Mambo Meister
4 Bribon
5 Majesticperfection
6 Smokey Fire
7 Temecular Creek
(I would love to see Majesticperfection win again, but I don't think that he can do it here.)
HONORABLE MISS HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Warbling
2 Pretty Prolific
3 Hour Glass
4 Secret Gypsy
5 One Smokin' Lady
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
WHITNEY HANDICAP (gr. I)
Saratoga, 9 Furlongs on dirt
This is it. The first leg of the all-new "Handicap Triple Crown". The field may be short on runners, but not on talent. The 83rd running of the grade I Whitney Handicap has drawn a spectacular field of runners, led by division leader Quality Road, who seeks to add a fourth grade I win to his résumé.
However, as good as Quality Road is, winning the Whitney won't be a stroll in the park. Lined up to challenge him are Blame, winner of the Clark and Stephen Foster Handicaps; Mine That Bird, winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby; and Haynesfield, winner of four straight including the Suburban Handicap last time out.
Here are my detailed thoughts on each runner. . .
#1: Mine That Bird
The Birdstone gelding has not won since last year's Derby, but returns to dirt for the first time in over a year. He always tries hard and should get the needed pace scenario with both Quality Road and Haynesfield wanting to be on the lead. He has been training nicely and with only 118 pounds on his back, he should be coming late. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.
#2: Blame
The son of Arch just keeps getting better and no one really knows how good he is. His run in the Stephen Foster was hugely impressive, and won't get caught four wide on both turns this time around. He has a spectacular pedigree backing him up and will likely be the first to engage Quality Road in the stretch. He will carry 121 pounds and will be ridden by Garrett Gomez. He is trained by Albert Stall Jr.
#3: Quality Road
What can I say? The son of Elusive Quality is a monster. He can show Dr. Fager-like speed when he needs to and has run well at a mile and a quarter. But can he win a race like the Whitney at the Graveyard of Champions? Perhaps. After all, he has yet to win a championship title! His win in the Donn Handicap was one of the most impressive performances of the year, and he does own a track record here at Saratoga. But can he hold off Blame and Mine That Bird with 126 pounds on his back? We'll see. He will be ridden by John Velazquez and is trained by Todd Pletcher.
#4: Haynesfield
This improving son of Speightstown could surprise everyone with a shocking win if he runs like he did in the Suburban Handicap. Like Blame, he is relatively untested, and could prove to be more than Quality Road can handle. He has the same running style as the latter, and it could turn into a real battle if they both decide to go for the lead. He gets into the race with only 116 pounds, ten less than Quality Road, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.
#5: Jardim
The longshot here with morning line odds of 30-1, the Brazilian-bred son of Ski Champ has not shown much since coming to the United States. In his last start, he finished second in an allowance race, beaten a head. He doesn't seem to match up here, but with Julien Leparoux in the saddle, he could spoil some trifectas by rallying for third. He will carry 113 pounds and is trained by E. Caramori.
#6: Musket Man
A son of Yonaguska, Musket Man has had a very unlucky career. A third in the Kentucky Derby. A third in the Preakness. A second in the Carter Handicap. A second in the Met Mile. Will he finally win a grade I race this Saturday? He was closing in on Quality Road in the Met Mile and with the extra distance, he should be right there. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He is trained by D. Ryan.
Obviously, it is a difficult race to handicap. In my opinion, Quality Road will have to run a perfect race to win. If Velezquez decides to let Haynesfield set the pace, the latter might just run away from everyone and steal the race. If Velezquez sends Quality Road to challenge Haynesfield early, then Blame, Mine That Bird, and Musket Man are going to come like freight trains from all directions. Velezquez is going to have to ride the perfect race: Stay in touch with Haynesfield but don't go too fast early. Or, go to the lead and hope that Haynesfield doesn't do the same.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Mine That Bird
2 Quality Road
3 Blame
4 Musket Man
5 Haynesfield
6 Jardim
I feel that Quality Road is going to be sent to the lead and just get caught by Mine That Bird in the final strides, with Blame rallying for third. Musket Man should be right there as well, no more than three or four lengths behind Mine That Bird. As much as I like Haynesfield, I don't think that he can stay with Quality Road if he should try and run with him early.
Whatever happens, it's going to be a fun race to watch!
CLEMENT L. HIRSCH STAKES (gr. I)
Del Mar, 8.5 Furlongs on Polytrack
Seventeen-for-seventeen.
Not many horses can claim that.
Zenyatta can.
The $300,000 grade I Clement L. Hirsch Stakes has done the same thing that it has for the past two years --- attracted the great champion Zenyatta. Can she extend her unbeaten streak to eighteen? Can she win the Clement Hirsch for the third straight year?
There are many questions to be answered. Some have said that Zenyatta is not as good as she was last year, or even the year before. I, on the other hand, think that she is better than ever before.
Is a mile and a sixteenth her best distance? Not really. But she has won at this distance many times. And unlike her last start, she won't be giving away a huge amount of weight.
Let's take a look at who's running. . .
#1: Princess Taylor
This fine mare comes into the Clement Hirsch off of a runner-up performance in the grade III Beverly Hills Handicap at a mile and a quarter on turf. In that race, she set the pace before giving in late. Can she handle synthetic surfaces? Perhaps. But she should appreciate the turn back in distance. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza. She is trained by P. Gallagher.
#2: Made for Magic
The only graded stakes winner in the field besides Zenyatta, Made for Magic won the grade II Vanity Handicap back in May. But she has run poorly in two starts since then. Also, she likes to come from as far back as Zenyatta, which means that she could end up being in the same situation Life is Sweet was in last year. But she has talent and should rally for a share. She will be ridden by O. Berrio and is trained by A. Avila.
#3: Spring Style
This five year old mare really hasn't shown much in his last few starts, although her running style of sitting just off the lead should help here. She comes into the Clement Hirsch off of a seventh-place finish in the Osunitas Stakes. She will carry 119 pounds on Saturday and will be ridden by P. Valenzuela. She is trained by B. Cecil.
#4: Dance to my Tune
To date, this front-running mare's best performance came in the grade I Santa Margarita Handicap, where she was beaten a length and a quarter by Zenyatta after having a three length lead at the eighth pole. However, she will likely be challenged for the lead this time by Princess Taylor and Rinterval, which could mean a decent pace for Zenyatta to close into. Dance to my Tune will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by David Flores. She is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
#5: Zenyatta
The 2009 Clement Hirsch Stakes will always be remembered as the race Zenyatta won by a head. Hopefully, she will come through and win by a larger margin this year. The great mare comes into this race off of a half-length score in the Vanity Handicap over St. Trinians, whom she was giving nine pounds. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer John Shirreffs feel that the race did Zenyatta good and that she is ready to run on Saturday. If they choose to run her. At the time I am writing this, John Shirreffs has still not fully committed Zenyatta to running. But if she does, she will carry top weight of 123 pounds.
#6: Rinterval
This fine filly stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth after just being defeated by champion Informed Decision in the seven furlong Chicago Handicap. She will likely go to the lead, and if she can slow the pace down, she might just have enough left to hold off Zenyatta's late run. But can she stretch out? She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. She is trained by E. Reed.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Zenyatta
2 Princess Taylor
3 Rinterval
4 Dance to my Tune
5 Made for Magic
6 Spring Style
I don't think that anyone can beat Zenyatta today. Not even with a slow pace. She is ready to run huge.
I like Princess Taylor for second for many reasons, including her solid performance in the Beverly Hills.
Go Zenyatta!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Here are a few of my other picks for this weekend's races. . .
WEST VIRGINIA DERBY (gr. II)
1 Concord Point
2 Nacho Friend
3 Thiskyhasnolimit
4 Skipshot
5 Exhi
6 Gunfighter
7 Not Abroad
8 Shookstown Road
9 Toh's Grey Cat
TEST STAKES (gr. I)
1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Belle of the Hall
3 Bonnie Blue Flag
4 Pica Slew
5 Buckleupbuttercup
6 Ash Zee
7 Tidal Pool
8 Christine Daae
9 Lovely Lil
ALFRED G. VANDERBILT STAKES (gr. I)
1 Big Drama
2 Gayego
3 Mambo Meister
4 Bribon
5 Majesticperfection
6 Smokey Fire
7 Temecular Creek
(I would love to see Majesticperfection win again, but I don't think that he can do it here.)
HONORABLE MISS HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Warbling
2 Pretty Prolific
3 Hour Glass
4 Secret Gypsy
5 One Smokin' Lady
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Check out bloodhorse.com!
I'm pleased to say that I guest blogged for Jason Shandler on bloodhorse.com today! I'm thrilled, excited, and honored to have had this opportunity!
Click here to read my post!
Click here to read my post!
Sunday, August 01, 2010
LOOKIN AT LUCKY WINS THE HASKELL!!
Under a perfect trip by Martin Garcia, Lookin at Lucky launched a three wide bid to win the $1,000,000 Izod Haskell Invitational by five lengths.
Tracking the pace set by First Dude, Our Dark Knight, and Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky looked good all the way around the track and drew off easily to win over 3-1 second choice Trappe Shot.
First Dude, the pace setter, finished third in a photo finish with Super Saver. Afleet Again finished fifth, followed by. . . Ice Box and Our Dark Knight, I believe.
What a race! Lookin at Lucky is now the clear leader of the three year old division, with wins in the Rebel, Preakness, and Haskell.
Tracking the pace set by First Dude, Our Dark Knight, and Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky looked good all the way around the track and drew off easily to win over 3-1 second choice Trappe Shot.
First Dude, the pace setter, finished third in a photo finish with Super Saver. Afleet Again finished fifth, followed by. . . Ice Box and Our Dark Knight, I believe.
What a race! Lookin at Lucky is now the clear leader of the three year old division, with wins in the Rebel, Preakness, and Haskell.
HASKELL UPDATE #3
It's just five minutes to post now for the $1,000,000 Izod Haskell Invitational. The tension is building, and there's a lot more than just $600,000 and a grade I win on the line today. The winner of this race will be a serious contender for Champion three year old at the end of the year.
I really like Afleet Again's chances. With a hot pace a possibility, he should be flying late.
It's now just two minutes to post. Lookin at Lucky is right there behind the gate, getting ready. Afleet Again is a very pretty horse.
Trappe Shot is still at 3-1.
It is now post time! I'll be back with the results in a moment. . .
-Keelerman
I really like Afleet Again's chances. With a hot pace a possibility, he should be flying late.
It's now just two minutes to post. Lookin at Lucky is right there behind the gate, getting ready. Afleet Again is a very pretty horse.
Trappe Shot is still at 3-1.
It is now post time! I'll be back with the results in a moment. . .
-Keelerman
HASKELL UPDATE #2
It is now just fifteen minutes to post time! Can Trappe Shot step up and defeat the most talented three year olds in the country? Or will Lookin at Lucky add another grade I to his list of achievments? We'll find out soon.
Here are the current odds. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky - 4-5
2 Afleet Again - 16-1
3 Ice Box - 6-1
4 First Dude - 6-1
5 Our Dark Knight - 26-1
6 Super Saver - 9-1
7 Trappe Shot - 3-1
Of all the jockeys riding into today's Haskell, four of them, Calvin Borel, Ramon Dominguez, Joe Bravo, and Jose Lezcano, have won races at Monmouth today. Is it a sign? Perhaps the superfecta will be. . .
1 First Dude
2 Afleet Again
3 Super Saver
4 Ice Box
. . . or any of those four in that order.
Lookin at Lucky is now at even money.
-Keelerman
Here are the current odds. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky - 4-5
2 Afleet Again - 16-1
3 Ice Box - 6-1
4 First Dude - 6-1
5 Our Dark Knight - 26-1
6 Super Saver - 9-1
7 Trappe Shot - 3-1
Of all the jockeys riding into today's Haskell, four of them, Calvin Borel, Ramon Dominguez, Joe Bravo, and Jose Lezcano, have won races at Monmouth today. Is it a sign? Perhaps the superfecta will be. . .
1 First Dude
2 Afleet Again
3 Super Saver
4 Ice Box
. . . or any of those four in that order.
Lookin at Lucky is now at even money.
-Keelerman
HASKELL UPDATE #1
Here are the current odds. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky - 3-5
2 Afleet Again - 16-1
3 Ice Box - 7-1
4 First Dude - 6-1
5 Our Dark Knight - 21-1
6 Super Saver - 11-1
7 Trappe Shot - 7-2
Amazingly, Super Saver is 11-1! Lookin at Lucky is the 3-5 favorite, which also amazes me. Trappe Shot is being heavily bet as well, currently 7-2.
More soon!
-Keelerman
1 Lookin at Lucky - 3-5
2 Afleet Again - 16-1
3 Ice Box - 7-1
4 First Dude - 6-1
5 Our Dark Knight - 21-1
6 Super Saver - 11-1
7 Trappe Shot - 7-2
Amazingly, Super Saver is 11-1! Lookin at Lucky is the 3-5 favorite, which also amazes me. Trappe Shot is being heavily bet as well, currently 7-2.
More soon!
-Keelerman
HASKELL ANALYSIS
Incredible. That's the word I'm using to describe this year's edition of the grade I, $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational. It is without a doubt the best field of three year olds assembled this year, as all of the division leaders, minus Drosselmeyer, will be running.
You've got the Kentucky Derby winner. The Preakness winner. The Derby runner-up. The Preakness runner-up. Two promising horses who skipped the Triple Crown. Throw in two solid stakes contenders and it's tough to beat the quality of this race.
The morning line favorite is Lookin at Lucky, and deservedly so. The son of Smart Strike comes off of a win in the Preakness Stakes over First Dude and Jackson Bend, but had a slight fever towards the end of June that threw off his training. Add the fact that he drew the rail and that he went out slightly too fast in his final workout for this race and you have yourself a vulnerable favorite. Still, he has shown the ability to overcome adversity and should be right there in the stretch.
Then there is Afleet Again. The son of Afleet Alex won the one mile Withers Stakes earlier this year from a quartet of fine stakes runners, but has lost two since then. He has a bad habit of drifting in the stretch, a habit that likely cost him the win in the Spend a Buck Stakes. He seemed to be running straighter in his last race, the Pegasus Stakes, where he ran second to the promising Afleet Express. His jockey knows the track extremely well and if the pace is strong, Afleet Again will be flying late.
This brings us to Ice Box. The son of Pulpit was very impressive in the Florida Derby, which he won by a nose, and was even more impressive in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished second after considerable traffic issues. He failed to put in his late run while finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, but had an excuse and has been training well for his return. If the track turns up wet, which is possible, it should only help him.
First Dude, the fifth choice on the morning line, will be right there as well. The son of Steven Got Even has only a maiden win to his credit, but finished second to Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness after setting a hot pace and was then third, beaten about a length, in the Belmont Stakes. He has shown the ability to take the lead or lie just off of it, and will be tough to catch in the stretch. Will he get his first stakes victory? We'll find out this afternoon.
Our Dark Knight, the morning line longshot, certainly has the upside to run a huge race. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has only competed in one stakes race, running second to Ibeboyee in the Spend a Buck Stakes, but won an allowance race impressively in his last start. He will likely be on or near the lead, although not necessarily setting a fast pace. If he and First Dude are able to slow the pace down to a crawl, they could certainly go one-two.
This brings us to the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon won the biggest race for three year olds over a very sloppy track, defeating Ice Box by two and a half lengths, but did receive a picture-perfect ride under Calvin Borel. He then turned in a very disappointing effort in the Preakness Stakes, fading after six furlongs and finishing well behind Lookin at Lucky. Can he rebound to his Derby-winning form? We'll see.
Then there is, or I should say was, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was scratched this morning with a fever. I was actually going to pick him to win, but since he's not running, I'll have to pick someone else. Hopefully he'll return to the races soon.
Finally, we come to Trappe Shot. The promising colt is undefeated in four starts and comes into the Haskell off of a solid win in the Long Branch Stakes as the heavy favorite. He has answered every question except one: Is he good enough? He will be receiving four pounds from Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver, and two pounds from Ice Box, but until he beats them, it's hard to say how good he is.
Now that I have discussed all of the runners, it's time to take a look at how the race might unfold.
ON LEAD OR JUST OFF LEAD
First Dude
Our Dark Knight
Super Saver
MID PACK
Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot
CLOSERS
Afleet Again
Ice Box
There does seem to be a fair amount of speed in this race, but the question is: will it be used? It's possible that both First Dude and Our Dark Knight could choose to set a slow pace, and Super Saver has already shown the ability to win from as many as eight lengths off the lead. If this turns out to be the case, then the race will likely be won by the front runners. However, should those three choose to go at it together early, it could set the race up for a deep closer like Ice Box or Afleet Again. If the pace is moderate, then the versatile Lookin at Lucky should come flying late, with Trappe Shot right on his heels.
So here are my selections. . .
1 First Dude
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Afleet Again
4 Super Saver
5 Ice Box
6 Trappe Shot
7 Our Dark Knight
I'm afraid that Trappe Shot just hasn't impressed me yet. That's not to say that he doesn't have talent, he just doesn't look ready for this level of competition. I believe that First Dude is ready for a breakthrough win and will hold off the unlucky Lookin at Lucky by a small margin. As for Afleet Again, I have always been fond of him and if he can keep his run straight he should come with his late rally for a piece of the money.
What a race it's going to be! I can't wait! I will be updating live as post time draws nearer, commenting on the odds and how the horses look. I will post the results as soon as the race is over.
-Keelerman
You've got the Kentucky Derby winner. The Preakness winner. The Derby runner-up. The Preakness runner-up. Two promising horses who skipped the Triple Crown. Throw in two solid stakes contenders and it's tough to beat the quality of this race.
The morning line favorite is Lookin at Lucky, and deservedly so. The son of Smart Strike comes off of a win in the Preakness Stakes over First Dude and Jackson Bend, but had a slight fever towards the end of June that threw off his training. Add the fact that he drew the rail and that he went out slightly too fast in his final workout for this race and you have yourself a vulnerable favorite. Still, he has shown the ability to overcome adversity and should be right there in the stretch.
Then there is Afleet Again. The son of Afleet Alex won the one mile Withers Stakes earlier this year from a quartet of fine stakes runners, but has lost two since then. He has a bad habit of drifting in the stretch, a habit that likely cost him the win in the Spend a Buck Stakes. He seemed to be running straighter in his last race, the Pegasus Stakes, where he ran second to the promising Afleet Express. His jockey knows the track extremely well and if the pace is strong, Afleet Again will be flying late.
This brings us to Ice Box. The son of Pulpit was very impressive in the Florida Derby, which he won by a nose, and was even more impressive in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished second after considerable traffic issues. He failed to put in his late run while finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, but had an excuse and has been training well for his return. If the track turns up wet, which is possible, it should only help him.
First Dude, the fifth choice on the morning line, will be right there as well. The son of Steven Got Even has only a maiden win to his credit, but finished second to Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness after setting a hot pace and was then third, beaten about a length, in the Belmont Stakes. He has shown the ability to take the lead or lie just off of it, and will be tough to catch in the stretch. Will he get his first stakes victory? We'll find out this afternoon.
Our Dark Knight, the morning line longshot, certainly has the upside to run a huge race. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has only competed in one stakes race, running second to Ibeboyee in the Spend a Buck Stakes, but won an allowance race impressively in his last start. He will likely be on or near the lead, although not necessarily setting a fast pace. If he and First Dude are able to slow the pace down to a crawl, they could certainly go one-two.
This brings us to the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon won the biggest race for three year olds over a very sloppy track, defeating Ice Box by two and a half lengths, but did receive a picture-perfect ride under Calvin Borel. He then turned in a very disappointing effort in the Preakness Stakes, fading after six furlongs and finishing well behind Lookin at Lucky. Can he rebound to his Derby-winning form? We'll see.
Then there is, or I should say was, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was scratched this morning with a fever. I was actually going to pick him to win, but since he's not running, I'll have to pick someone else. Hopefully he'll return to the races soon.
Finally, we come to Trappe Shot. The promising colt is undefeated in four starts and comes into the Haskell off of a solid win in the Long Branch Stakes as the heavy favorite. He has answered every question except one: Is he good enough? He will be receiving four pounds from Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver, and two pounds from Ice Box, but until he beats them, it's hard to say how good he is.
Now that I have discussed all of the runners, it's time to take a look at how the race might unfold.
ON LEAD OR JUST OFF LEAD
First Dude
Our Dark Knight
Super Saver
MID PACK
Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot
CLOSERS
Afleet Again
Ice Box
There does seem to be a fair amount of speed in this race, but the question is: will it be used? It's possible that both First Dude and Our Dark Knight could choose to set a slow pace, and Super Saver has already shown the ability to win from as many as eight lengths off the lead. If this turns out to be the case, then the race will likely be won by the front runners. However, should those three choose to go at it together early, it could set the race up for a deep closer like Ice Box or Afleet Again. If the pace is moderate, then the versatile Lookin at Lucky should come flying late, with Trappe Shot right on his heels.
So here are my selections. . .
1 First Dude
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Afleet Again
4 Super Saver
5 Ice Box
6 Trappe Shot
7 Our Dark Knight
I'm afraid that Trappe Shot just hasn't impressed me yet. That's not to say that he doesn't have talent, he just doesn't look ready for this level of competition. I believe that First Dude is ready for a breakthrough win and will hold off the unlucky Lookin at Lucky by a small margin. As for Afleet Again, I have always been fond of him and if he can keep his run straight he should come with his late rally for a piece of the money.
What a race it's going to be! I can't wait! I will be updating live as post time draws nearer, commenting on the odds and how the horses look. I will post the results as soon as the race is over.
-Keelerman
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