HASKELL ANALYSIS

Incredible. That's the word I'm using to describe this year's edition of the grade I, $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational. It is without a doubt the best field of three year olds assembled this year, as all of the division leaders, minus Drosselmeyer, will be running.

You've got the Kentucky Derby winner. The Preakness winner. The Derby runner-up. The Preakness runner-up. Two promising horses who skipped the Triple Crown. Throw in two solid stakes contenders and it's tough to beat the quality of this race.

The morning line favorite is Lookin at Lucky, and deservedly so. The son of Smart Strike comes off of a win in the Preakness Stakes over First Dude and Jackson Bend, but had a slight fever towards the end of June that threw off his training. Add the fact that he drew the rail and that he went out slightly too fast in his final workout for this race and you have yourself a vulnerable favorite. Still, he has shown the ability to overcome adversity and should be right there in the stretch.

Then there is Afleet Again. The son of Afleet Alex won the one mile Withers Stakes earlier this year from a quartet of fine stakes runners, but has lost two since then. He has a bad habit of drifting in the stretch, a habit that likely cost him the win in the Spend a Buck Stakes. He seemed to be running straighter in his last race, the Pegasus Stakes, where he ran second to the promising Afleet Express. His jockey knows the track extremely well and if the pace is strong, Afleet Again will be flying late.

This brings us to Ice Box. The son of Pulpit was very impressive in the Florida Derby, which he won by a nose, and was even more impressive in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished second after considerable traffic issues. He failed to put in his late run while finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, but had an excuse and has been training well for his return. If the track turns up wet, which is possible, it should only help him.

First Dude, the fifth choice on the morning line, will be right there as well. The son of Steven Got Even has only a maiden win to his credit, but finished second to Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness after setting a hot pace and was then third, beaten about a length, in the Belmont Stakes. He has shown the ability to take the lead or lie just off of it, and will be tough to catch in the stretch. Will he get his first stakes victory? We'll find out this afternoon.

Our Dark Knight, the morning line longshot, certainly has the upside to run a huge race. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has only competed in one stakes race, running second to Ibeboyee in the Spend a Buck Stakes, but won an allowance race impressively in his last start. He will likely be on or near the lead, although not necessarily setting a fast pace. If he and First Dude are able to slow the pace down to a crawl, they could certainly go one-two.

This brings us to the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon won the biggest race for three year olds over a very sloppy track, defeating Ice Box by two and a half lengths, but did receive a picture-perfect ride under Calvin Borel. He then turned in a very disappointing effort in the Preakness Stakes, fading after six furlongs and finishing well behind Lookin at Lucky. Can he rebound to his Derby-winning form? We'll see.

Then there is, or I should say was, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was scratched this morning with a fever. I was actually going to pick him to win, but since he's not running, I'll have to pick someone else. Hopefully he'll return to the races soon.

Finally, we come to Trappe Shot. The promising colt is undefeated in four starts and comes into the Haskell off of a solid win in the Long Branch Stakes as the heavy favorite. He has answered every question except one: Is he good enough? He will be receiving four pounds from Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver, and two pounds from Ice Box, but until he beats them, it's hard to say how good he is.

Now that I have discussed all of the runners, it's time to take a look at how the race might unfold.

ON LEAD OR JUST OFF LEAD

First Dude
Our Dark Knight
Super Saver

MID PACK

Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot

CLOSERS

Afleet Again
Ice Box

There does seem to be a fair amount of speed in this race, but the question is: will it be used? It's possible that both First Dude and Our Dark Knight could choose to set a slow pace, and Super Saver has already shown the ability to win from as many as eight lengths off the lead. If this turns out to be the case, then the race will likely be won by the front runners. However, should those three choose to go at it together early, it could set the race up for a deep closer like Ice Box or Afleet Again. If the pace is moderate, then the versatile Lookin at Lucky should come flying late, with Trappe Shot right on his heels.

So here are my selections. . .

1 First Dude
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Afleet Again
4 Super Saver
5 Ice Box
6 Trappe Shot
7 Our Dark Knight

I'm afraid that Trappe Shot just hasn't impressed me yet. That's not to say that he doesn't have talent, he just doesn't look ready for this level of competition. I believe that First Dude is ready for a breakthrough win and will hold off the unlucky Lookin at Lucky by a small margin. As for Afleet Again, I have always been fond of him and if he can keep his run straight he should come with his late rally for a piece of the money.

What a race it's going to be! I can't wait! I will be updating live as post time draws nearer, commenting on the odds and how the horses look. I will post the results as soon as the race is over.

-Keelerman