Zenyatta! Quality Road! Blame! Mine That Bird! Haynesfield! Concord Point! Champagne d'Oro! There's a star-studded weekend of racing coming up that mustn’t be missed! Several huge steps toward the Breeders' Cup will be taken --- can Zenyatta continue her unbeaten streak? Let's take a look at what's being run, beginning with the Whitney Handicap!
WHITNEY HANDICAP (gr. I)
Saratoga, 9 Furlongs on dirt
This is it. The first leg of the all-new "Handicap Triple Crown". The field may be short on runners, but not on talent. The 83rd running of the grade I Whitney Handicap has drawn a spectacular field of runners, led by division leader Quality Road, who seeks to add a fourth grade I win to his résumé.
However, as good as Quality Road is, winning the Whitney won't be a stroll in the park. Lined up to challenge him are Blame, winner of the Clark and Stephen Foster Handicaps; Mine That Bird, winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby; and Haynesfield, winner of four straight including the Suburban Handicap last time out.
Here are my detailed thoughts on each runner. . .
#1: Mine That Bird
The Birdstone gelding has not won since last year's Derby, but returns to dirt for the first time in over a year. He always tries hard and should get the needed pace scenario with both Quality Road and Haynesfield wanting to be on the lead. He has been training nicely and with only 118 pounds on his back, he should be coming late. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.
#2: Blame
The son of Arch just keeps getting better and no one really knows how good he is. His run in the Stephen Foster was hugely impressive, and won't get caught four wide on both turns this time around. He has a spectacular pedigree backing him up and will likely be the first to engage Quality Road in the stretch. He will carry 121 pounds and will be ridden by Garrett Gomez. He is trained by Albert Stall Jr.
#3: Quality Road
What can I say? The son of Elusive Quality is a monster. He can show Dr. Fager-like speed when he needs to and has run well at a mile and a quarter. But can he win a race like the Whitney at the Graveyard of Champions? Perhaps. After all, he has yet to win a championship title! His win in the Donn Handicap was one of the most impressive performances of the year, and he does own a track record here at Saratoga. But can he hold off Blame and Mine That Bird with 126 pounds on his back? We'll see. He will be ridden by John Velazquez and is trained by Todd Pletcher.
#4: Haynesfield
This improving son of Speightstown could surprise everyone with a shocking win if he runs like he did in the Suburban Handicap. Like Blame, he is relatively untested, and could prove to be more than Quality Road can handle. He has the same running style as the latter, and it could turn into a real battle if they both decide to go for the lead. He gets into the race with only 116 pounds, ten less than Quality Road, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.
#5: Jardim
The longshot here with morning line odds of 30-1, the Brazilian-bred son of Ski Champ has not shown much since coming to the United States. In his last start, he finished second in an allowance race, beaten a head. He doesn't seem to match up here, but with Julien Leparoux in the saddle, he could spoil some trifectas by rallying for third. He will carry 113 pounds and is trained by E. Caramori.
#6: Musket Man
A son of Yonaguska, Musket Man has had a very unlucky career. A third in the Kentucky Derby. A third in the Preakness. A second in the Carter Handicap. A second in the Met Mile. Will he finally win a grade I race this Saturday? He was closing in on Quality Road in the Met Mile and with the extra distance, he should be right there. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He is trained by D. Ryan.
Obviously, it is a difficult race to handicap. In my opinion, Quality Road will have to run a perfect race to win. If Velezquez decides to let Haynesfield set the pace, the latter might just run away from everyone and steal the race. If Velezquez sends Quality Road to challenge Haynesfield early, then Blame, Mine That Bird, and Musket Man are going to come like freight trains from all directions. Velezquez is going to have to ride the perfect race: Stay in touch with Haynesfield but don't go too fast early. Or, go to the lead and hope that Haynesfield doesn't do the same.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Mine That Bird
2 Quality Road
3 Blame
4 Musket Man
5 Haynesfield
6 Jardim
I feel that Quality Road is going to be sent to the lead and just get caught by Mine That Bird in the final strides, with Blame rallying for third. Musket Man should be right there as well, no more than three or four lengths behind Mine That Bird. As much as I like Haynesfield, I don't think that he can stay with Quality Road if he should try and run with him early.
Whatever happens, it's going to be a fun race to watch!
CLEMENT L. HIRSCH STAKES (gr. I)
Del Mar, 8.5 Furlongs on Polytrack
Seventeen-for-seventeen.
Not many horses can claim that.
Zenyatta can.
The $300,000 grade I Clement L. Hirsch Stakes has done the same thing that it has for the past two years --- attracted the great champion Zenyatta. Can she extend her unbeaten streak to eighteen? Can she win the Clement Hirsch for the third straight year?
There are many questions to be answered. Some have said that Zenyatta is not as good as she was last year, or even the year before. I, on the other hand, think that she is better than ever before.
Is a mile and a sixteenth her best distance? Not really. But she has won at this distance many times. And unlike her last start, she won't be giving away a huge amount of weight.
Let's take a look at who's running. . .
#1: Princess Taylor
This fine mare comes into the Clement Hirsch off of a runner-up performance in the grade III Beverly Hills Handicap at a mile and a quarter on turf. In that race, she set the pace before giving in late. Can she handle synthetic surfaces? Perhaps. But she should appreciate the turn back in distance. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza. She is trained by P. Gallagher.
#2: Made for Magic
The only graded stakes winner in the field besides Zenyatta, Made for Magic won the grade II Vanity Handicap back in May. But she has run poorly in two starts since then. Also, she likes to come from as far back as Zenyatta, which means that she could end up being in the same situation Life is Sweet was in last year. But she has talent and should rally for a share. She will be ridden by O. Berrio and is trained by A. Avila.
#3: Spring Style
This five year old mare really hasn't shown much in his last few starts, although her running style of sitting just off the lead should help here. She comes into the Clement Hirsch off of a seventh-place finish in the Osunitas Stakes. She will carry 119 pounds on Saturday and will be ridden by P. Valenzuela. She is trained by B. Cecil.
#4: Dance to my Tune
To date, this front-running mare's best performance came in the grade I Santa Margarita Handicap, where she was beaten a length and a quarter by Zenyatta after having a three length lead at the eighth pole. However, she will likely be challenged for the lead this time by Princess Taylor and Rinterval, which could mean a decent pace for Zenyatta to close into. Dance to my Tune will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by David Flores. She is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
#5: Zenyatta
The 2009 Clement Hirsch Stakes will always be remembered as the race Zenyatta won by a head. Hopefully, she will come through and win by a larger margin this year. The great mare comes into this race off of a half-length score in the Vanity Handicap over St. Trinians, whom she was giving nine pounds. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer John Shirreffs feel that the race did Zenyatta good and that she is ready to run on Saturday. If they choose to run her. At the time I am writing this, John Shirreffs has still not fully committed Zenyatta to running. But if she does, she will carry top weight of 123 pounds.
#6: Rinterval
This fine filly stretches out to a mile and a sixteenth after just being defeated by champion Informed Decision in the seven furlong Chicago Handicap. She will likely go to the lead, and if she can slow the pace down, she might just have enough left to hold off Zenyatta's late run. But can she stretch out? She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. She is trained by E. Reed.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Zenyatta
2 Princess Taylor
3 Rinterval
4 Dance to my Tune
5 Made for Magic
6 Spring Style
I don't think that anyone can beat Zenyatta today. Not even with a slow pace. She is ready to run huge.
I like Princess Taylor for second for many reasons, including her solid performance in the Beverly Hills.
Go Zenyatta!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Here are a few of my other picks for this weekend's races. . .
WEST VIRGINIA DERBY (gr. II)
1 Concord Point
2 Nacho Friend
3 Thiskyhasnolimit
4 Skipshot
5 Exhi
6 Gunfighter
7 Not Abroad
8 Shookstown Road
9 Toh's Grey Cat
TEST STAKES (gr. I)
1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Belle of the Hall
3 Bonnie Blue Flag
4 Pica Slew
5 Buckleupbuttercup
6 Ash Zee
7 Tidal Pool
8 Christine Daae
9 Lovely Lil
ALFRED G. VANDERBILT STAKES (gr. I)
1 Big Drama
2 Gayego
3 Mambo Meister
4 Bribon
5 Majesticperfection
6 Smokey Fire
7 Temecular Creek
(I would love to see Majesticperfection win again, but I don't think that he can do it here.)
HONORABLE MISS HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Warbling
2 Pretty Prolific
3 Hour Glass
4 Secret Gypsy
5 One Smokin' Lady
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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