As sad as it is to say this, Saratoga will be concluding its meet soon. Obviously one of the highlights of the summer, Saratoga has provided us with some spectacular racing this year. And although there's only a little more than a week of racing left at the historic track, it's going to be the best racing of the meet.
Still left to be run at Saratoga are the Ballerina Stakes, Ballston Spa Handicap, King's Bishop Stakes, Travers Stakes, Victory Ride Stakes, Personal Ensign Stakes, With Anticipation Stakes, Forego, The Woodward, Saranac Stakes, Spinaway Stakes, Glens Falls Handicap, and Hopeful Stakes. Eight of those are grade I stakes races. Six of them will be run this weekend.
Therefore, Saratoga will be the host of this week's feature race, the grade I Travers Stakes for three year olds.
FEATURE RACE: TRAVERS STAKES (gr. I)
Frequently referred to as the "Midsummer Derby", the Travers Stakes is one of the oldest races in the United States. Every year the race helps sort out the often muddled three year old division, with the winner always gaining a shot at earning the three year old championship. Summer Bird, Colonel John, Street Sense, Bernardini, Flower Alley, Birdstone, Ten Most Wanted, Medaglia d'Oro, and Point Given have been the last nine winners. Who will win the 141st Travers Stakes? Let's take a look at who's running.
#1: MINER'S RESERVE (12-1)
It's hard to believe that this is the same colt that finished tenth, beaten thirty-four lengths, in the Florida Derby. His last three starts have been terrific, beginning with an impressive win in an allowance race at Belmont Park, followed by a sharp second to A Little Warm in another allowance race. As good as these efforts were, he turned in a breakthrough performance in his last start, the grade II Jim Dandy, where he ran second once again to A Little Warm while defeating classy stakes winners Afleet Express and Fly Down. However, he may not have the necessary stamina to take this field wire-to-wire, especially with First Dude, Super Saver, and A Little Warm all pushing the pace.
#2: TRAPPE SHOT (4-1)
The second choice on the morning line, Trappe Shot has won four of his last five races. His last start was very impressive, as he ran second to leading three year old and Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky in the Haskell Invitational. Finishing behind him were First Dude, Super Saver, Afleet Again, and Ice Box. But like Miner's Reserve, Trappe Shot may not have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter against this group. But he definitely deserves a chance.
#3: ADMIRAL ALEX (12-1)
When Leon Blusiewicz announced that he intended to run Admiral Alex in the Travers, it came as a bit of a surprise. Yes, Admiral Alex is undefeated. But he has only raced once, winning a maiden special weight by a length here at Saratoga on July 31st. It was a rather impressive performance, however, so he certainly could be a contender. He would probably benefit from a fast pace, which would allow him to sit just off the lead and get first run at the leaders in the home stretch.
#4: FIRST DUDE (8-1)
If one was to glance at First Dude's racing summary, one would get the impression that First Dude is a nice allowance horse. After all, he has only won once in nine starts. But First Dude is much more than an allowance horse. Along with his one win--a maiden special weight--he has finished second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont, Haskell, and Blue Grass. That is the career of a very good race horse who deserves a shot at winning the Midsummer Derby. However, he has had a long, hard campaign and may not be at his best.
#5: A LITTLE WARM (7-2)
What A Little Warm has accomplished since he started racing last June is truly amazing. It took the colt four tries to break his maiden, but since doing so he has reeled off five consecutive first or second place finishes, four of them in stakes races. His streak began with his 2010 debut in the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which he won while easily defeating Discreetly Mine, who finished a dismal fourth in the slop. He then finished second in the Hutcheson Stakes to D' Funnybone and second in the Lousiana Derby to Mission Impazible.
Running in the Preakness Stakes was considered, but the colt with withdrawn after failing a post-workout endoscopic examination. Given a lengthy break, he returned in an allowance optional claiming race at Delaware Park which he won by just over two lengths. Stepped up to stakes company once again, he answered the big class question by winning Jim Dandy over Miner's Reserve, Afleet Express, Fly Down, and others. He looks like the deserving favorite here today, and would be an even stronger favorite if the track turns up sloppy.
#6: ICE BOX (10-1)
Ice Box looked to have an unlimited future back in March after just getting up to win the Florida Derby by a nose. His future seemed even brighter when he finished a fast closing second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby after a disastrous trip. However, he has been extremely disappointing since then, finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes and sixth of seven in the Haskell. A fast pace and slop would really help this colt.
#7: AFLEET EXPRESS (6-1)
Immediately after this colt broke his maiden, I was extremely excited about him. I had the feeling that he was going to turn out to be something very special. Although he was somewhat disappointing in two allowance races following his first win, I never gave up hope that he might someday turn into something special.
In his fourth start, coming off of a three month layoff, the Afleet Express that I had imagined finally showed up. The colt won an allowance race at Belmont Park by nearly eight lengths, and then proceeded to win over Afleet Again, Soaring Empire, Nacho Friend, Jackson Bend, and Schoolyard Dreams in the grade III Pegasus Stakes. Although he could only finish third in the Jim Dandy, he is still a major contender on Saturday and should relish the mile and a quarter.
#8: FLY DOWN (8-1)
Just how good is Fly Down? This question has yet to be answered. He began 2010 with an allowance win by a head over First Dude, but then finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby as the third choice. Given a bit of a rest, he turned in a very dominating performance in the Dwyer Stakes, winning by six lengths over Drosselmeyer. The order of finish was reversed, however, in the Belmont Stakes, where Drosselmeyer defeated Fly Down by three quarters of a length. Based off of this strong form, Fly Down was favored to win the Jim Dandy and did make a strong move to reach contention but flattened out and finished fifth, beaten three and a half lengths. Seeing that his best performances have come at Belmont Park, it is possible that Fly Down is a true "horse for the course" and may not be as good anywhere else.
#9: FRIEND OR FOE (15-1)
The biggest question that this New York-bred has to answer is: can he get the distance? He made his first start in March of this year, winning a maiden special weight, and proceeded to knock off an allowance race and the Mike Lee Stakes, the latter in which he beat heavy favorite Ibboyee, who returned to win the New York Derby and finish a close second in the Albany Stakes. However, when Friend or Foe attempted to race beyond seven furlongs for the first time, in the nine furlong Jim Dandy Stakes, he finished fourth while unable to stay with the top three finishers. On the other hand, he was three wide on both turns and did finish ahead of Fly Down.
#10: AFLEET AGAIN (30-1)
The longshot on the morning line, inconsistent is the word that best describes Afleet Again. One minute he is charging from the clouds, weaving down the stretch to hit the board--or even win--a respectable stakes race. The next minute you are left wondering "Is he a stakes horse or a claimer?" Afleet Again began 2010 with a badly beaten fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes. Then he won an allowance race at Philadelphia Park by a length before finishing a fast closing second to Peppi Knows in the ungraded Whirlaway Stakes, a race that was memorable because the heavy favorite, Eightfiveinafifty, failed to make the first turn and threw his rider. This performance was followed by a last-place finish in the grade III Gotham Stakes, well behind victorious Awesome Act. He then pulled a stunning upset in the grade III Withers Stakes before finishing a fast-closing but weaving third in the Spend a Buck Stakes behind Ibboyee and Our Dark Knight. A second in the Pegasus Stakes was followed by a fifth in the Haskell, which brings us to the Travers. A blazing fast pace would help set up his late run, but he doesn't seem to be quite good enough here.
#11: SUPER SAVER (6-1)
Super Saver has had a good, but not great year. One of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby following a dominating performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, he began the year by finishing a close third to Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams in the Tampa Bay Derby. A sharp second to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby set him up for the Kentucky Derby, which he won by two and a half lengths in the slop. Sent off as the favorite in the Preakness Stakes, he got in a perfect position but failed to menace at all, fading badly on the far turn to finish eighth, well behind winner Lookin at Lucky. Given a long break, he returned in the Haskell Invitational. On the far turn it looked like he was going to give Lookin at Lucky a fight, but he flattened out and finished fourth, missing second by three quarters of a length. If it pours rain on Saturday, then you can't ignore Super Saver.
Now, having discussed all eleven runners, it's time to make my picks.
Here they are. . .
1 Afleet Express
2 A Little Warm
3 Trappe Shot
4 Super Saver
5 First Dude
6 Ice Box
7 Fly Down
8 Miner's Reserve
9 Afleet Again
10 Admiral Alex
11 Friend or Foe
I'm going to stick with Afleet Express once again. Perhaps I am biased toward him since I have liked him since last December, but I honestly believe that he is capable of great things. A Little Warm is obviously the one to beat, but I'm not quite sure that he can go a mile and a quarter against this group. Trappe Shot is very nice horse, but I'm very worried about his distance abilities.
J.R., however, is not.
For those of you who have not thoroughly read my prior posts, J.R. is my friend who enjoys handicapping the races with me. He has absolutely no doubts about Trappe Shot's distance ability and feels that the colt will win impressively on Saturday.
Amazingly, he has picked Admiral Alex for second. He doesn't think that A Little Warm is as good as everyone thinks he is. Also, he is intrigued by the other two Afleet Alex sons, Afleet Express and Afleet Again, and is mulling over the possibility of an all Afleet Alex trifecta.
Here are his full picks. . .
1 Trappe Shot
2 Admiral Alex
3 Afleet Axpress
4 Ice Box
5 Afleet Again
6 First Dude
7 A Little Warm
8 Super Saver
9 Fly Down
10 Friend or Foe
11 Miner's Reserve
It's a handicapping contest! Whose picks will finish better, mine or J.R.'s? Who do you like?
OTHER NOTABLE RACES
PACIFIC CLASSIC (gr. I)
As usual, the Pacific Classic has drawn a well-matched field of older males, all trying to earn their spot in November's Breeders' Cup Classic. Ten horses have entered, including the top three finishers from the grade III Cougar II Handicap and three grade I winners.
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is The Usual Q. T. He is a two time grade I winner, having won the Hollywood Derby last November and the Eddie Read last month. He is nearly unstoppable on turf, having won eight of ten races on the grass.
However, his five starts on synthetic tracks have yielded poor results, with three seconds in maiden special weight races being his best performances over the surface. In his last start on a synthetic track, he finished last of nine in the Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes.
Awesome Gem is another obvious contender. He will be making his fourth consecutive appearance in this race, having finished second in 2007 and seventh in both 2008 and 2009. He is arguably in the best form of his life, and comes off of a sharp win in the grade I Hollywood Gold Cup over Rail Trip. However, Del Mar's Polytrack may not be his best surface.
Somewhat amazing is the fact that Battle of Hastings is 10-1. Yes, he has not won since last July, when he proved victorious in the grade II Virginia Derby by a head, but bad trips and very late runs have plagued him since then. He comes into the Pacific Classic off of a narrow loss to Dakota Phone in the San Diego Handicap, his first start on a synthetic track. He has shown the ability to challenge The Usual Q. T. in the past and is definitely a contender.
Richard's Kid, who won the Pacific Classic in a 24-1 upset last year, is back to try and win it again. He has only won once since then, in the grade II San Antonio Handicap, but ran pretty well in the Dubai World Cup earlier this year and should be in the mix on Saturday. A mile and a quarter is probably his best distance too.
But despite all of these fabulous horses, I'm going to go with the 8-1 sixth choice Hold Me Back. His win in the grade III Dominion Day Handicap last month was a fine performance and I think that he is going to take to the Del Mar Polytrack very well. Is he good enough? Perhaps not. But you never know what is going to happen on Polytrack.
So here are my full picks. . .
1 Hold Me Back
2 Battle of Hastings
3 Awesome Gem
4 Richard's Kid
5 Dakota Phone
6 The Usual Q.T.
7 Crowded House
8 Temple City
9 Unusual Suspect
10 Isle of Giant's
I'm going to go against The Usual Q. T. because he is unproven over synthetic surfaces. He seems to be different horse on grass; by far his best performances have come on grass. Awesome Gem is in the form of his life, and believe me I'll be cheering for him, but I don't think he is as good at Del Mar as he is elsewhere.
J.R. has different thoughts. I'll let his picks speak for him . . .
1 Crowded House
2 Richard's Kid
3 Temple City
4 Dakota Phone
5 Battle of Hastings
6 Hold Me Back
7 Awesome Gem
8 The Usual Q.T.
9 Isle of Giant's
10 Unusual Suspect
He was very impressed with Crowded House in the Eddie Read and feels that he is ready to step up and win the Pacific Classic. Once again, we'll see who does better, him or me.
KING'S BISHOP STAKES (gr. I)
Discreetly Mine or D' Funnybone? That is the question that everyone is asking.
They have met once before, in the grade II Woody Stephens Stakes. Discreetly Mine hooked up with Eightyfiveinafifty and D' Funnybone, who had been tracking in third, blew past both of them to win.
Since then, Discreetly Mine has raced twice, winning the grade III Jersey Shore Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths and the grade II Amsterdam Stakes by 8 3/4. D' Funnybone has raced once, losing the grade III Carry Back Stakes by a length to Coffee Boy.
But they are not the only worthy contenders. Bulldogger was very impressive winning an allowance race last time out. Hurricane Ike looked great winning the Derby Trial over a very classy field, and whatever you do, don't forget about Bank Merger. The undefeated son of Consolidator made up a huge amount of ground in his last start, an allowance race, to win by a length and a quarter.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Discreetly Mine
2 Bank Merger
3 D' Funnybone
4 Bulldogger
5 Hurricane Ike
6 In Jack's Memory
7 Latigo Shore
I expect a pretty good speed duel between Discreetly Mine and D' Funnybone, and I think that Discreetly Mine is going to emerge victorious, with Bank Marger flying late to grab second from a tiring D' Funnybone.
BALLERINA STAKES (gr. I)
The grade I Ballerina Stakes has drawn a very nice field of eight fillies, led by the 2009 Eclipse champion female sprinter Informed Decision. Last year, she won six of her seven starts, culminating with a win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint over Ventura. However, she has had a rather disappointing 2010, losing both the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes and grade I Humana Distaff, races she won in 2009. She did rebound with wins in the grade III Chicago Handicap and the ungraded Windward Stakes, but looks vulnerable here. She also appears to be better on synthetic surfaces, and was unable to win this race last year.
The horse I like is Qualia. She comes into the Ballerina off of a fast-closing second to Rightly So in the seven furlong grade III Bed o' Roses Handicap last month. She seems to be getting better and has never finished worse than second in six starts.
Speaking of Rightly So, she is set to run in the Ballerina Stakes too. She has never finished worse than third in ten starts, winning six of them, and is capable of taking this field wire-to-wire if the pace is reasonable enough.
Jessica is Back and Warbling are other logical contenders. Jessica is Back comes off of a grade I win in the Princess Rooney Handicap, and Warbling comes off of a third in the Honorable Miss Handicap, a race in which the front running filly blew the break and was forced to rally from last. Prior to that she finished second in the Princess Rooney.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Qualia
2 Informed Decision
3 Warbling
4 Rightly So
5 Jessica is Back
6 Pretty Prolific
7 Devil by Design
8 First Passage
I believe that Warbling and Rightly So are going to hook up on the lead, setting a blazing pace that will allow Qualia to close from the clouds and claim the victory. Informed Decision is probably the most talented horse in the race on a synthetic track, but I don't think that she can win here.
BALLSTON SPAR HANDICAP (gr. II)
Why is Danzon 20-1?
Okay, that isn't the greatest way to begin my analysis of the Ballston Spa Handicap, but it is the first thing that came to mind. When the entries first came out, I glanced at the runners. I quickly picked Danzon to win, and then when I sat down to write this post I realized that she was 20-1.
Why is she 20-1?
All right, perhaps she isn't in the greatest form of her life, but she has been very consistent lately, and don't forget that in 2007 she did finish third in the grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes against males while defeating the likes of Better Talk Now, Einstein, and Go Between. That was a long time ago, but just the same, it shows that she has class.
Even though Churchill Downs seems to be her favorite track, I am going to pick her here and hope that the seven year old mare turns on that late rally that she has shown so many times before.
Miss Keller is the morning line favorite, based off of her impressive win in the ungraded De La Rose Stakes last time out. In that race, she closed from well back to win the one mile race in 1:34 4/5. However, she had shown only average form prior to that race.
Phola is the second choice and deserves to be, for her last few races have been very good. Back in June, she finished second, beaten a half-length by Proviso, in the grade I Just a Game Handicap at one mile. In her last race, she finished sixth in the grade I Diana Stakes but was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Danzon
2 Dynaslew
3 Maram
4 Mekong Melody
5 Phola
6 Miss Keller
7 Cherokee Queen
8 Strike the Bell
9 Scolara
10 Silver Reunion
What a solid set of fillies! Just about anyone in the race could win. It's going to be a good one to watch, and it should have a strong influence on the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf later this year.
PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES (gr. I)
This is it.
The big test.
Is Rachel Alexandra the same filly that she was last year?
For the first time since last September, the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra will be taking on grade I company. Her four starts this year have been less than stellar, losing the ungraded New Orleans Ladies' Stakes and the grade II La Troinne before winning the grade II Fleur de Lis and the ungraded Lady's Secret Stakes. She does not seem to be quite the same filly that she was last year, but she can prove that she is on Sunday when she runs in the Personal Ensign Stakes.
It will be a true challenge for the champion filly. The distance is a mile and a quarter, a distance at which she has never run. Also, she has never had a filly or mare quite like Life at Ten breathing down her neck.
Life at Ten has won six straight races, including the grade I Ogden Phipps at a mile and the grade II Delaware Handicap at this mile and a quarter distance. Her running style is identical to Rachel Alexandra's. Can she possibly stay with the Horse of the Year, and more importantly, can she outduel the Horse of the Year to win the race?
It's very possible. But I'm going to pick Rachel Alexandra anyway. I believe that she is finally going to return to form and get on track for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Here are my complete picks. . .
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Life at Ten
3 Miss Singhsix
4 Classofsixtythree
5 Persistently
This is going to be a race to see. I won't miss it for anything.
OTHER PICKS
PAT O' BRIEN STAKES (gr. I)
1 Smiling Tiger
2 E Z's Gentleman
3 Sangaree
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Tropic Storm
6 El Brujo
7 New Bay
8 Hard Bill
9 Leaving New York
10 Kanan Dume
DEL MAR MILE HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Blue Chagall
2 Enriched
3 Bruce's Dream
4 Scenic Blast
5 Meteore
6 Golden Mexico
7 Moudez
MOLLY PITCHER HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Malibu Prayer
2 Queen Martha
3 Milwaukee Appeal
4 Just Jenda
5 Unforgotten
6 Stage Trick
It's going to be a tremendous weekend of racing! Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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