ANALYSIS OF BREEDERS' CUP PRE-ENTRIES

With the Breeders' Cup pre-entries having been announced this morning, the real fun begins. From now until the final entries come out is the Research Period, where one checks and double checks the facts on every runner and finds out as much as possible about any runner they don't recognize.

Of course, one can't do any serious handicapping until the final entries are announced, but it's still great fun to dig through the pre-entries and start laying the groundwork.

This post is not a handicapping post; in other words, I'm not going to root through the names and make my picks. That will come a couple days before the races. Instead, I'm going to go over every race and try to find a few sleepers and great stories that haven't gotten very much publicity. Enjoy!

CLASSIC

Obviously the most looked-forward-to race, the Breeders' Cup Classic has drawn an oversubscribed field of sixteen. However, two of those entered, Crown of Thorns and Dakota Phone, have first preference in the Dirt Mile, which makes it unlikely that any horse will be kept out of the Classic.

The big names are, of course, Zenyatta, Lookin at Lucky, Blame, and Quality Road, but there is one other horse that warrants some serious attention and may be overlooked in the betting.

This horse is Musket Man. The four year old colt has shown great form for two years now, but has been running mostly in sprint races. His form over a distance of ground has been very good however. In the Met Mile earlier this year, he finished a closing second, beaten just over a length by Quality Road. A third place finish in the Whitney followed, then a narrowly beaten second to Etched in the Monmouth Cup. These performances alone warrant a shot at the Classic, but it is the form he displayed as a three-year-old that really fascinates me. He ran third to Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby and third again in the Preakness despite steadying on the far turn. Being beaten a length and a half by Rachel Alexandra is not easy, but he managed to pull it off. Returning to a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs may be just the thing he needs to run his very best race.

TURF

The Breeders' Cup Turf has drawn eleven pre-entries, of which only eight are likely to run. Two fillies, Red Desire and Plumania, have first preference in the Filly & Mare Turf, while Paddy O'Prado has first preference in the Classic.

All year, European shippers have dominated here in North America. Debussy won the Arlington Million, Chinchon the United Nations, Joshua Tree the Canadian International, etc. etc. However, in my opinion, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf may just come from the United States.

The deserving favorite here will be Workforce, who enters the race off of a hard-fought neck victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Behkabad, fourth in that race, could end up being the second choice. Together, they lead a formidable quartet of European colts who have their sights set on victory.

However, it is interesting to note that no horse has ever won the Arc and the Turf in the same year; denoting to complete the sweep is next to impossible. Add that to the fact that this year's running of the Arc was a very trying race, with quite a bit of interference, and you have yourself a favorite that may be vulnerable.

If this is the case, it may be Winchester who flies to victory. The five year old horse has been very consistent as of late, and has won two grade I races this year, the Manhattan Handicap and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes, both at Belmont Park. It appears as though he relishes the Belmont Park turf course, but he has had some moderate success over smaller ovals. Having beaten Gio Ponti and Paddy O'Prado, he could prove too much for the Europeans if they don't fire their best shots.

DIRT MILE

As usual, the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has drawn a large, well-matched field. Fifteen have been entered, but two of them, Morning Line and Tropic Storm, have first preference in other races, meaning that thirteen will most likely go to post.

Several horses will vie for favoritism here, including Here Comes Ben, Vineyard Haven, Tizway, and Crown of Thorns. The four of them look very tough to beat, but there are a few other quality runners here that will likely make their presence felt in the stretch.

Mad Flatter is an excellent example. He turned in a very good effort last time out, winning the grade III Spend a Buck Handicap by over six lengths last time out, defeating odds-on favorite Mambo Meister.

Then there is the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. He has not been in very good form as of late, finishing off the board in all three starts this year, but he is returning to the site of his victory in the Derby, so if he's going to show his best form, it will likely be here.

One mustn’t ignore Thiskyhasnolimit either. He won the Iroquois Stakes here at Churchill Downs over a mile last fall, and has been in excellent form. He enters the race off of a second place finish to Lookin at Lucky in the Indiana Derby, and may offer a bit of a price.

MILE

Concerning the Breeders' Cup Mile, one question burns in the mind of every horse racing fan ---- can Goldikova pull off what has never been done before and win a third consecutive Breeders' Cup race?

A win would etch her name into history for all time. However, a very good field of ten has turned out to face her, although only nine have first preference to run here. With Gio Ponti opting for the Classic, her task has become a bit easier, but it will still be no walk in the park.

Her stiffest opposition may come from one of the other European shippers, Paco Boy. Although he has never beaten Goldikova before, he has come close on multiple occasions.

Proviso is the other mare in the field, and she has won four consecutive grade I races. Back in March, she won the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap against males, and she has proven herself over a variety of turf courses. A closer, if she gets the jump on Goldikova, she may be able to hold her off.

One horse who may offer value is Get Stormy. Very disappointing last time out when he finished fourth to Gio Ponti in the Shadwell Mile, he was running great prior to that race and has a good chance at rebounding here.

JUVENILE

Uncle Mo or Boys at Tosconova? This is the question that nearly every horse racing fan is asking. It seems as though you are either for one or the other, and all other runners have been shoved back into the shadows.

Uncle Mo won the Champagne Stakes in 1:34 2/5 --- a truly incredible performance. Boys at Tosconova won the Hopeful without urging --- also an incredible performance. However, neither colt has ventured two turns before, which is a worrying factor.

So if Boys and Mo fail to fire their best shots in the Juvenile, there is a pair of juveniles from California that could prove more than the Eastern wonders can handle. They are Jaycito, winner of the Norfolk Stakes and J P's Gusto, the runner up. Both have a good foundation under them, especially J P's Gusto, and both should benefit from making their first start on dirt. J P's Gusto, a front-running colt, should relish the dirt surface, which is typically friendly to front runners.

Rogue Romance could also offer a great price. He could be any kind of colt after his impressive victory in the Bourbon Stakes last time out. Of course, he will be trying dirt for the first time, but who knows what he might be able to accomplish?

TURF SPRINT

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint ---- five furlongs of pure speed and dexterity. Will Chamberlain Bridge rebound off of his third place finish in the Woodford? Can Californian Flag rebound off of a last place effort in that same race? Can Silver Timber add a Breeders' Cup win to his already impressive resume? Can the Morvich Handicap winner Quick Enough prove quick enough to win? Or will one of the females, like Canadian Ballet, Rose Catherine, and Unzip Me prove best under the Twin Spires?

Of the fourteen Breeders' Cup races, this one may be the toughest to handicap. There are a half dozen horses here that I really like, but based strictly on value, it's hard to ignore Stradivinsky, He won the Jaipur Stakes at Belmont Park earlier this year in a very sharp time and ran third to Chamberlain Bridge in the Turf Monster Handicap last time out. He could be ready for a monster effort in the Breeders’ Cup.

SPRINT

One of the most wide-open Breeders' Cup races this year, the Sprint has drawn an evenly-matched field of twelve. The favorite will likely be Girolamo, fresh off of workman-like victory in the Vosburgh Stakes. It was his first grade I victory, and he looks to establish himself as one of the top sprinters in the country with a victory here.

One horse that has been receiving very little attention is Kinsale King, winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen back in March. He raced for a time in Europe, then returned to the United States and has been training up to this race. If he runs to his Shaheen form, it will be very hard to beat him.

Atta Boy Roy is another horse who may offer a price. He was disappointing in his last start, the Woodford Stakes, but that was over a turf course. Arguably his best win came here at Churchill Downs in the Churchill Downs Stakes back in May, where he defeated Warrior's Reward, Musket Man, and others.

Wise Dan, coming off of a narrow victory in the Phoenix Stakes, broke his maiden by over fifteen lengths back in March and won an allowance race here at Churchill earlier this year. He could run huge in his second start back from a layoff.

JUVENILE TURF

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf has drawn a field of nineteen two year olds, of which at least a half dozen could vie for favoritism. With Biondetti and Rogue Romance eyeing the richer Juvenile, the favorites will likely by Air Support and Soldat, the one-two finishers in the Pilgrim Stakes.

Major Gain could offer a very good price and has a decent shot at winning. He began his career by running second in a maiden special weight race, then won the grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity by a length. Sent off as the favorite in his next start, the grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Cup Futurity, he ran a well-beaten fifth.

Madman Diaries is another interesting colt. He has won three of his five starts, finishing second in the other two, and comes off of a sharp win in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park. However, he has yet to run farther than six furlongs.

LADIES' CLASSIC

A spectacular field of twelve has been pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, led by the leading three-year-old filly Blind Luck, winner of three grade I races this year, including the Kentucky Oaks. Returning to the site of her Oaks victory, she should get some serious pace to run at here and will be the deserving favorite.

However, she was beaten in her last race, the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes, by Havre de Grace. Now, Havre de Grace was getting ten pounds, but she still managed to hold off Blind Luck's tremendous late run and deserves respect here. She could easily hold off Blind Luck again if the pace scenario is right, and she just seems to be getting better and better.

Life at Ten, winner of the Beldame Stakes, will likely by the second choice. She showed a new dimension in the Beldame, rating just off the pace, and will be very dangerous if she does the same here.

Unrivaled Belle, second in the Beldame after setting the pace, is back for another try. She was only beaten two lengths by Life at Ten and defeated Rachel Alexandra here at Churchill Downs back in April, making her a major threat.

Persistently is another filly who defeated Rachel Alexandra. She rallied furiously in the ten furlong Personal Ensign Stakes to post a one-length upset over the Horse of the Year, and although she was a disappointing third in the Beldame, she should relish a return to two-turns at Churchill.

FILLY & MARE TURF

The foreign invaders here are very, very impressive. Of the eleven horses entered for the Filly & Mare Turf, six of them were bred outside the United States. Five of those have done most of their racing outside of the United States.

The favorite here is obviously Midday, winner of this race last year. She has won three of her four starts since then, culminating with an impressive victory in the Qatar Prix Vermeille (Fr-I) last time out. There is no reason to think that she won't win again.

Plumania will likely be the second choice, based off of her victory over males in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and her runner-up performance to Midday in the Prix Vermeille. She was disappointing in her last race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, but should rebound off of that.

Throw in the Japanese invader Red Desire and you have yourself a very formidable group of invaders.

Among the longer shots, I like Harmonious. She former was extremely impressive in her last race, the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. I) and should relish the eleven furlong distance of this race. She may very well be ready to run the best race of her life here at the Breeders' Cup.

JUVENILE FILLIES

A very difficult race to decipher, the Juvenile Fillies has drawn thirteen runners and will likely decide the two year old filly championship. The favorite will probably be A Z Warrior or Awesome Feather. The former comes into the Juvenile off of a very impressive victory in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I), whilst the latter enters off of a decisive eight length victory in the Mr Dear Girl Stakes at Calder Race Course to remain unbeaten in five starts.

Tell a Kelly could be a bit of a price based off of her runner-up effort to Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf Stakes last time out. Prior to that, however, she was very, very impressive while winning the Darley Debutante Stakes. Well behind Tell a Kelly in the Debutante was A Z Warrior.

Theyskens' Theory, a European shipper, could also offer decent odds. She is bred to like the dirt and has been keeping fine company in England.

This is a race that may come down to who gets the best trip.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

The Filly & Mare Sprint division has been wide open all year long, and that only became more obvious when twenty-two fillies and mares were pre-entered for the fourth running of this race.

A good many horses could be sent off as the favorite, including Informed Decision, winner of this race last year. Dubai Majesty and Champagne d'Oro will also be well bet.

One very interesting runner who may offer good odds is Gabby's Golden Gal, who has not raced since upsetting the Santa Monica Handicap back in January. In that race, she defeated Proviso, who has won four straight grade I races since then. It would be incredible if Gabby's Golden Gal was to win this race off of a nine month layoff.

Rightly So and Sara Louise might also offer a decent price. Rightly So has yet to finish worse than third in eleven starts, while the very talented Sara Louise was a disappointing third in her last race. However, it was her first start off of a long layoff, and she will likely run better this time around.

Switch is also worth mentioning. Second to Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret Stakes last time out, she was disappointing in her only start on dirt but has beaten Blind Luck at Hollywood Park. Interestingly, she was bred by Calumet Farm, the same farm that bred Triple Crown winners Whirlaway and Citation, as well as seven other Kentucky Derby winners.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Winter Memories will probably be the favorite here based off of her astonishing victory in the Miss Grillo last time out. However, the European shipper Together could make things very interesting. Last time out, she finished second in the Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile to a very good filly named White Moonstone. Trained by Aidan O'Brien, I would not be surprised if she was the second choice.

New Normal performed very nicely when winning the Natalma Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion last time out, holding off the late-running More Than Real, who is back for another try here in the Breeders' Cup.

Fancy Point, who will likely be around 10-1, won the P.G. Johnson Stakes and although she only ran third in the Miss Grillo, deserves respect here.

Finally, there is Wyomia, who won the Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine last time out in a very impressive effort. However, she ran fifth in her only start on turf.

MARATHON

One of my favorite Breeders' Cup races, the Marathon has drawn a field of thirteen, although only twelve have first preference here. The favorite will probably be the Aidan O'Brien trained Bright Horizon, winner of a two-mile race in England. From the United States, Prince Will I Am, Giant Oak, and Eldaafer will all be well bet.

Atoned is one horse that I greatly respect who may be somewhere around 8-1. He finished a closing third to Eldaafer in the Turfway Park Fall Championship Stakes last time out over a mile and a half, and should relish the extra quarter of a mile.

Million Seller is another interesting runner. A four year old filly, she comes off of a neck victory in the Rosenna Stakes last time out. However, that race was only a mile and a sixteenth in distance. On the other hand, in 2009, she ran a very good second in a two mile allowance race against males.

It's going to be a great Breeders' Cup, as usual. Now, I must begin my more serious handicapping! I'll be back soon with additional analysis. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

EARLY TRIPLE CROWN 2011 HOPEFULS

Sure, it's only October, and the Breeders' Cup hasn't even been run yet, but I thought it would be fun to get a very (very!) early start on next year's Triple Crown Countdown. Therefore, I have compiled my top ten picks for next year's classics.

Of course, the chance of these ten horses all making it to the Kentucky Derby is remote, but it's always fun to compile a nice top ten list. Plus, after the 2011 classics have been run, it will be fun to go back and see where I had the winners ranked, if at all.

So here I go. . .

1. TO HONOR AND SERVE ---- Bernardini – Pilfer, by Deputy Minister. Trained by Bill Mott.
Out of all the horses on this list, this is the one that I am most excited about. He broke his maiden last time out by nearly nine lengths going a mile and a sixteenth on a sloppy track at Belmont, stopping the clock in 1:43.34 under a hand ride. The runner up came back to win a Maiden Special Weight at Monmouth Park, making To Honor and Serve a very exciting juvenile. The Nashua Stakes is next.

2. JAYCITO ---- Victory Gallop – Night Edition, by Ascot Knight. Trained by Mike Mitchell.
I was really impressed with his remarkable win in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) despite everything he had to overcome. He ran down a nice horse in J P's Gusto and Mike Smith is very high on him. Plus, he's bred to get a mile and a quarter.

3. UNCLE MO ---- Indian Charlie – Playa Maya, by Arch. Trained by Todd Pletcher.
His 1:34 2/5 clocking in the Champagne is perhaps the most impressive performance by a juvenile this year; but being by Indian Charlie—whose progeny have always had a bit of a distance limitation—worries me. But to set the fractions he set in the Champagne and still come home in :24 seconds is astonishing.

4. BOYS AT TOSCONOVA ---- Officer – Little Bonnet, by Coronado’s Quest. Trained by Rick Dutrow.
Boys at Tosconova got his career off to an excellent start when he finished second in the grade III Kentucky Juvenile Stakes back in April. However, he has become even better since then, winning the Hopeful (gr. I) in a hand ride most recently. However, like Uncle Mo, his pedigree is questionable for Classic distances.

5. CURLINELLO ---- Smart Strike – Colonella, by Pleasant Colony. Trained by Todd Pletcher.
Although he has yet to win a stakes race, he has been running very well at Monmouth Park and seems to have the same, slow grind which enabled Drosselmeyer to win the Belmont Stakes earlier this year. He is definitely one to watch.

6. STAY THIRSTY ---- Bernardini – Marozia, by Storm Bird. Trained by Todd Pletcher.
Like Curlinello, Stay Thirsty has only a maiden win to his credit, but unlike Curlinello, this colt is grade I stakes placed. Last time out, the promising son of Bernardini finished second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful Stakes. He seems like a colt who should relish additional distance and two turns.

7. J P'S GUSTO ---- Successful Appeal – Call Her Magic, by Caller I.D.. Trained by David Hofmans.
This fine juvenile had a stranglehold on the California two-year old division all summer long, but relented that position to Jaycito when he lost the Norfolk Stakes last time out. His pedigree does not scream classic distances and he had no excuse in the Norfolk except that he ran out of gas.

8. BUG JUICE ---- Mingun – Twilight Empress, by Twilight Agenda. Trained by Bruce Levine
Bug Juice has a lot of questions to answer, but he’s done everything right so far. Although he has yet to race beyond six furlongs, his two stakes victories have been very impressive. He won the Aspirant Stakes by seven lengths and the New York Breeders’ Futurity by ten. His victories have been coming at Finger Lakes, but he looks like a legitimately speedy colt.

9. BANDBOX ---- Tapit – Empty the Bases, by Grand Slam. Trained by Rodney Jenkins.
Undefeated in three starts, the New York-bred Bandbox won the Sleepy Hollow Stakes last time out, overcoming a poor break to win by a length and a quarter.

10. ROGUE ROMANCE ---- Smarty Jones – Lovington, by Afleet. Trained by Kenny McPeek.
Although he has yet to race on dirt, Rogue Romance turned in a dominating effort last time out, winning the Bourbon Stakes (gr. IIIT) by two and a half lengths in a last-to-first run. He ran his final sixteenth in about 5 2/5 seconds, and he has a pedigree that can take him places.

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS ---- October 23rd, 2010

(Correction: On my last "Breeders' Cup Rankings", one of my notes accidently made it through the editing process and onto the post. Under the Juvenile Fillies Turf division, I meant to list Kathmanblu. The error has been corrected. Sorry!)

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Quality Road
5 Haynesfield

TURF

1 Winchester
2 Workforce
3 Behkabad
4 Champ Pegasus
5 Al Khali

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Gio Ponti
3 Proviso
4 Paco Boy
5 Court Vision

SPRINT

1 Big Drama
2 Wise Dan
3 Kinsale King
4 Girolamo
5 Riley Tucker

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Havre de Grace
3 Life at Ten
4 Unrivaled Belle
5 Persistently

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Harmonious
3 Red Desire
4 Plumania
5 Eclair de Lune

DIRT MILE

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Tizway
3 Crown of Thorns
4 Vineyard Haven
5 Gayego

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Dubai Majesty
2 Champagne d'Oro
3 Rightly So
4 Evening Jewel
5 Sara Louise

TURF SPRINT

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 Silver Timber
3 Rose Catherine
4 Stradivinsky
5 California Flag

MARATHON

1 Bright Horizon
2 Eldaafer
3 Atoned
4 A. U. Miner
5 Giant Oak

JUVENILE

1 Uncle Mo
2 Jaycito
3 Boys at Tosconova
4 J P's Gusto
5 Rerouted

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Awesome Feather
2 Tell a Kelly
3 A Z Warrior
4 R Heat Lightning
5 Indian Gracey

JUVENILE TURF

1 Rogue Romance
2 Air Support
3 Soldat
5 Biondetti
4 Bandbox

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 Winter Memories
2 Together
3 New Normal
4 Kathmanblu
5 More Than Real

BRASS HAT WINS THE SYCAMORE!

Nine year old Brass Hat came charging on the far outside late to score a one length victory in the Sycamore Stakes.

Ridden by Calvin Borel, it was the gelding's first win since the 2009 Louisville Handicap (gr. III).

Sent off at 9-2, Brass Hat sat about mid-pack, well off of the pace set by front running Presious Passion.

Favored Musketier took a narrow lead as the field turned into the homestretch, but Presious Passion refuse to give up easily, battling strongly along the inside. 54-1 shot Southern Anthem was coming with a late run, but it was Brass Hat who got home first.

The final time was 2:30 3/5. Southern Anthem finished second, Musketier third. Tajaaweed finished fourth, and I believe Presious Passion stayed on well enough to grab fifth.

Thanks to Southern Anthem, the $1 trifecta paid $801.70.

-Keelerman

SYCAMORE STAKES PICKS

It's one minute to post time for the Sycamore Stakes (gr. III), and I thought that I'd take a moment to list my picks. . .

1 Rezif
2 Musketier
3 Brass Hat
4 Tajaaweed
5 Free Fighter

I was really impressed by Rezif's easy win over Cloudy's Knight last time out, and I do believe that he is capable of winning again here.

-Keelerman

JOSHUA TREE WINS THE CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL!

Three year old Joshua Tree pulled off a mild upset in the 73rd running of the Pattison Canadian International when he held off longshot Mores Wells and favored Redwood to post a half length victory.

Sent off at 9-2, jockey Colm O'Donoqhue kept Joshua Tree about four lengths off the early pace, which was being set by 6-1 shot Fifty Proof. Simmard and Marsh Side were racing together in second. United Nations winner and 3-1 shot Chinchon was last in the early going.

Through fractions of :26, :52, and 1:18 2/5, Fifty Proof continued to lead the way. Marsh Side was beginning to inch closer, as was Joshua Tree.

Into the stretch they came, cutting a mile and a quarter in 2:08 1/5, with Joshua Tree moving up to take a narrow lead. Mores Wells and Redwood closed strongly to finish second and third, respectively. Al Khali rallied very late for fourth, while Chinchon made a rail run to finish fifth.

The final time was 2:32 3/5.

-Keelerman

HARMONIOUS WINS THE QUEEN ELIZABETH II CHALLENGE CUP STAKES!

I'll post the details of how the race was run later, but here are the top four finishers. . .

1 Harmonious
2 Zagora
3 Evening Jewel
4 Dade Babe

-Keelerman

REGGANE WINS THE E.P. TAYLOR STAKES!

Last on the far turn, Reggane made a huge run on the far outside to defeat Miss Keller by a length in the grade I, $1,000,000 E.P. Taylor Stakes.

Ridden by Christophe Soumillon, Reggane sat well off of a slow early pace set by Akarlina. Second choice Shalanaya races in second, with Contredanse right there as well.

Rounding the far turn, Akarlina still led the way, but Shalanaya was making a run for the lead, as was Mekong Melody.

As the field turned for home, Miss Keller made a sudden, brilliant move to take the lead, but Reggane was charging relentlessly on the far outside and got up in time.

The final time was 2:03 and change. Shalanaya finished third, Contredanse fourth.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- October 16th

As it is only three weeks until the Breeders' Cup, racing slows down quite a bit after this Saturday. However, because it is only three weeks until the Breeders' Cup, there are still a few last-minute preps available for those horses that didn't race over the last two weeks.

Four grade I races are scheduled for today, and three of them are at Woodbine. The Canadian International, the E.P. Taylor Stakes, and the Nearctic Stakes are the highlights of the Woodbine card, with each race drawing a large, solid field, with many of the runners coming from Europe. At Keeneland, there is the grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, for three year old fillies. All of the above mentioned races are on turf.

This week’s feature race shall be the Canadian International, a $2,000,000 1-1/2 mile turf event.

FEATURE RACE ---- THE CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL (Can-I)

I won't go into a huge amount of detail here today (after all, post time for the Nearctic Stakes is in about an hour and a half!) but I'll try to cover as much as possible as quickly as possible.

A field of nine has turned out for the 73rd running of this historic race, with the favorite being Redwood, winner of the Northern Dancer Stakes last month. It was his first start in the United States, and his fourth win overall from ten starts. A group III winner in England, the win was a major improvement for the son of High Chaparral. A win here could set the colt up nicely for a start in the Breeders' Cup Turf, should his connections choose to take that route.

Fifty Proof, 10-1 on the morning line, offers excellent value in my opinion. He finished second in the Northern Dancer last time out, beaten only a half-length by Redwood. Amazingly, all eight of his starts have been at Woodbine, where he has won four of his eight starts while finishing second three times. It's entirely possible that he could turn the tables on Redwood this time around.

Chinchon is the second choice on the morning line, and definitely deserves to be. Two starts back, he turned in a monster performance, coming from last to win the grade I United Nations Stakes at Monmouth over Take the Points and Winchester. Returned to France, where he has done the majority of his racing, yielded a last-of-six finish in the grade II Prix Foy, but it was a very good field and there is no reason why he shouldn't rebound today.

Marsh Side, a seven year old son of Gone West, is the third choice on the morning line. He looked great winning the Sky Classic Stakes (Can-II) by five lengths two starts back, but finished an extremely disappointing eighth in the Northern Dancer last time out, beaten ten lengths. If the ground turns up soft today, he will relish it and will have every chance at rebounding.

Al Khali and Simmard, first and third respectively in the Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II), make their first starts since that race. However, I don't believe that either of them are at their best over a mile and a half, and their odds (6-1 and 15-1) reflect this opinion.

Memorial Maniac, the longshot at 20-1, is one horse who has proven to be effective at longer distances, winning the Stars and Stripes (gr. II) over a mile and five eighths two starts back, but he finished fifth at 23-1 in the Northern Dancer.

Mores Wells, yet another shipper from Europe, is 12-1 on the morning line. He comes off of a victory in the group III Stockholm Cup International in Sweden. However, he has shown nowhere near good enough form to win this race.

Finally, we come to my pick. Joshua Tree, a three year old son of Montjeu, has made only five starts, winning two of them. At two, he was the impressive winner of the group II Royal Lodge Stakes, where he defeated future Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York. As a three year old, he has made two starts, finishing third to Rwilding and Midas Touch in the group II Great Voltigeur Stakes and fifth in the group I St. Leger Stakes, beaten less than six lengths by an exceptional group of horses that included Arctic Cosmos, Midas Touch, and Snow Fairy. Based on the fine company he has been keeping, I do believe that he should relish the conditions here today and could become the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Turf if he runs there next month.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Joshua Tree
2 Redwood
3 Chinchon
4 Fifty Proof
5 Marsh Side
6 Simmard
7 Al Khali
8 Memorial Maniac
9 Mores Wells

OTHER PICKS

E.P. TAYLOR STAKES (Can-I)

It’s a rather difficult race to decipher, but the morning line favorite, Shalanaya, looks pretty good. She has been up against some very good competition and has beaten Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Midday in the past.

One horse I really like is Lahaleeb, winner of this race last year. She will be running on Lasix for the first time, but has not hit the board in her five starts since last year’s E.P. Taylor.

Miss Keller should be right there in the stretch, based on her recent form. In her last start, the Canadian Stakes, she turned in a sharp performance to win by a length and three quarters. She loves this course and I would not be surprised to see her late kick carry her to victory.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Shalanaya
2 Miss Keller
3 Lahaleeb

NEARCTIC STAKES (Can-I)

The field is large (not to mention good!), and is even harder to decipher than the E.P. Taylor. However, I was able to come up with my pick fairly quickly.

I’m going to go with the three year old Bridgetown. He has made two starts this year, winning both of them. The first was the 5-1/2 furlongs Latham Stakes at Saratoga, where he held off the late-charging Flamin’ Hot for a one length victory.

His second start came in the Gilded Time Stakes at about 5-1/2 furlongs, where he easily defeated Partyallnightlong by two and a half lengths. This will be his first start against older horses, but I believe that he can handle them.

Here are my top three picks. . .

1 Bridgetown
2 Towzee
3 Fatal Bullet

QUEEN ELIZABETH II CHALLENGE CUP STAKES (gr. I)

The morning line favorite is Evening Jewel, but I do believe that she can be beaten. The most obvious choice to beat her is second choice Check the Label, but the horse I like is Harmonious. She is a grade I winner, having won the American Oaks earlier this year, and just failed to catch Evening Jewel after a nightmare trip in the nine furlong Del Mar Oaks. With a little better trip today, she should prove more than capable of upending Evening Jewel.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Harmonious
2 Evening Jewel
3 Check the Label

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS - October 15th, 2010

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Quality Road
5 Richard's Kid

TURF

1 Winchester
2 Workforce
3 Paddy O'Prado
4 Champ Pegasus
5 Behkabad

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Gio Ponti
3 Proviso
4 Paco Boy
5 Rip Van Winkle

SPRINT

1 Big Drama
2 Wise Dan
3 Kinsale King
4 Girolamo
5 Riley Tucker

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Havre de Grace
3 Life at Ten
4 Unrivaled Belle
5 Persistently

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Red Desire
3 Eclair de Lune
4 Harmonious
5 Ave

DIRT MILE

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Tizway
3 Crown of Thorns
4 Etched
5 Vineyard Haven

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Dubai Majesty
2 Champagne d'Oro
3 Rightly So
4 Evening Jewel
5 Sara Louise

TURF SPRINT

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 Rose Catherine
3 Silver Timber
4 Bridgetown
5 California Flag

MARATHON

1 Rezif
2 Bright Horizon
3 Eldaafer
4 Atoned
5 A. U. Miner

JUVENILE

1 Uncle Mo
2 Boys at Tosconova
3 Jaycito
4 J P's Gusto
5 Pathfork

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Tell a Kelly
2 A Z Warrior
3 R Heat Lightning
4 Rigoletta
5 Awesome Feather

JUVENILE TURF

1 Rogue Romance
2 Air Support
3 Soldat
5 Biondetti
4 Bandbox

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 Winter Memories
2 New Normal
3 Together
4 Kathmanblu
5 More Than Real

GIO PONTI WINS THE SHADWELL TURF MILE!

Patiently ridden by Ramon Dominguez, Gio Ponti made a bold move in the homestretch to win the grade I Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes by a length.

60-1 Acting Zippy went right to the lead, followed closely by Enriched on his outside and Get Stormy along the rail. Courageous Cat found himself fourth early on, followed by Gio Ponti and Society's Chairman.

Through fractions of :24 1/5 and :47 4/5 the order remained unchanged. Enriched then made took the lead and cut three quarters of a mile in 1:11 and change. Courageous Cat was following him on the outside, and Gio Ponti was beginning his run as well.

As the field turned for home, Enriched had the lead, while second choice Get Stormy was going nowhere. It looked for a brief moment like Courageous Cat would win, but Gio Ponti just kept on coming. Society's Chairman rallied strongly for second at odds of 18-1, and Courageous Cat finished third. Get Stormy came home fourth.

-Keelerman

UNCLE MO WINS THE CHAMPAGNE!

In a performance reminiscent of Seattle Slew's victory in the Champagne thirty-four years ago, Uncle Mo went right to the front and turned back all challenges to win the grade I Champagne Stakes by an impressive five lengths, stopping the clock in a phenomenal 1:34 2/5.

Ridden by John Velezquez, the Todd Pletcher-trained two year old established himself as the heavy favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile next month.

Uncle Mo broke his maiden by fourteen lengths in his first start, and is now a perfect 2-for-2. In today's race, he set very challenging early fractions but still closed his final quarter in :24 seconds.

Mountain Town made a bold run on the outside to reach contention, but at no point threatened the winner. I'm Steppin' It Up finished third.

-Keelerman

A Z WARRIOR WINS THE FRIZETTE!

A Z Warrior drew off impressively in the stretch to win the grade I Frizette Stakes by four easy lengths.

Ridden by Alan Garcia, the Bob Baffert-trained filly sat just off the early pace set by longshot Coax Liberty before making a strong move on the far turn to take an easy lead. Favored R Heat Lightning, winner of the Spinaway last time out, rallied well for second but was no match for the winner.

Joyful Victory finished third, followed by Valiant Passion.

-Keelerman

PRINCE WILL I AM WINS THE JAMAICA!

Prince Will I Am rallied furiously from last to score a 9-1 upset victory in the grade I Jamaica Handicap.

Ridden by Jose Lezcano, Prince Will I Am sat far off the early pace set by Citrus Kid and Two Notch Road. Citrus Kid opened up a clear lead in the homestretch and appeared to be on his way to victory, but Prince Will I Am charged just a bit too fast.

Beau Choix finished tird, followed by Center Divider. Favored Krypton tired as the field turned for home.

-Keelerman

DUBAI MAJESTY WINS THE THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA!

Dubai Majesty outfought longshot Old Time Religion to score a narrow victory in the Throughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II).

Patiently ridden by Jamie Theriot, Dubai Majesty sat a few lengths off the early pace set by longshot Old Time Religion. Favorites Informed Decision and Champagne d'Oro were also racing just off the early lead.

Turning for home, Old Time Religion, at 69-1, still held the lead, but Dubai Majesty was launching her bid. An exciting stretch battle followed, a battle which Dubai Majesty won. This victory will likely make her the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint next month.

Old Time Religion finished second, a nose in front of Informed Decision, who rallied strongly from last to just miss the runner-up spot.

Champagne d'Oro finished a solid fourth. She didn't seem to handle the synthetic track very well.

One race earlier, Silver Timber scored a mild upset in the grade III Woodford Stakes. Favored California flag ran very poorly, and second choice Chamberlain Bridge failed to rally fast enough, finishing fourth. Silver Timber has established himself as one of the top contenders for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint with the victory. The winning jockey was Julien Leparoux.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- October 8th, 2010

It's now just four weeks until the Breeders' Cup. This weekend is the last major weekend of prep races. At Oak Tree, there is the grade I Ancient Title Breeders' Cup Stakes, and the grade II Oak Tree Mile. At Belmont Park, there is the Jamaica Handicap (gr. I), Frizette Stakes (gr. I), and Champagne Stakes (gr. I). At Keeneland, there is the Woodford Stakes (gr. III), Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (gr. I), Abu Dhabi First Lady Stakes (gr. I), and the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II). It wasn't easy picking from all these great races, but this week's Feature Race is the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes.

FEATURE RACE: SHADWELL TURF MILE STAKES (gr. I)
One Mile on the Turf at Keeneland

One of two major preps for the Breeders' Cup Mile being run this weekend, the Shadwell Turf Mile has drawn a small but brilliant field of six, led by the 7-5 morning line favorite Gio Ponti. But the favorite may be vulnerable in this spot, and there are plenty of good horses that have the ability to beat him.

#1: GET STORMY (3-1)

The co-second choice on the morning line, Get Stormy has found his niche as a versatile turf miler. He hasn't run a bad race since June 2009 and has turned into a monster this year.

In his last start, the Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II), the four year old son of Stormy Atlantic sat just off the early pace and showed a very strong turn of foot, blowing past the leader to win the nine furlong turf event by two and three quarter lengths, stopping the clock in 1:46 3/5.

As if that isn't good enough, two starts back he stumbled at the start of the Fourstardave Handicap (gr. II) but still went right to the front. He ended up winning by a length and a quarter. His final time for the mile and a sixteenth was a phenomenal 1:39 flat.

His only bad effort this year was in the King Edward Stakes (gr. II) at Woodbine back in June, when he ran fourth, beaten eight lengths. He obviously wasn't himself that day, although I'm not sure what happened.

He will carry 126 pounds today, the same as all of the other runners. He will be ridden by Javier Castellano, who is, in my opinion, one of the best jockeys in the country. One question remains --- is Get Stormy good enough to beat Gio Ponti?

I think that with the right conditions, yes.

He is trained by Thomas Bush.

#2: ACTING ZIPPY (20-1)

The morning line longshot, Acting Zippy has been a bit inconsistent. He has made six starts this year, beginning with an allowance win and a neck victory in the John B. Connally Handicap (gr. III). His luck turned sour after that, with three consecutive terrible finishes, being beaten a total of 55 1/4 lengths. In the Charles Town Classic he ran sixth, beaten nearly twenty lengths, and was given a break.

Returned to the races ten days ago, he came through with a win in a 5-1/2 furlong optional claiming event at Hoosier Park. It is unlikely that he is completely ready for this race, let alone ready to take on the likes of Gio Ponti, but he has back class and could pull through to earn a large piece of the purse. He will be ridden by E. Martin Jr. and is trained by William Bennett.

#3: COURAGEOUS CAT (3-1)

Of all the horses in this race, Courageous Cat is the most interesting. He has not raced since finishing a dismal ninth in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-I) back in March, but he had shown excellent form prior to that. In his prep for the Dubai race, the one mile Canadian Turf Stakes (gr. III) he sat just off of the early pace. The first quarter mile was run in :23 1/5. The half was run in :45 4/5. At this point, Courageous Cat was a length and a half off of the lead. Following three quarters of a mile in 1:08 2/5, Courageous Cat then made his bid for the lead. He won the race by a head, stopping the clock in a ridiculous 1:31 2/5. Despite this, his win in the Canadian Turf is overshadowed by his game second in the Breeders' Cup Mile last year to Goldikova, where he took the lead in the stretch, only to lose by a half-length.

Those two efforts show what a good horse Courageous Cat is, and that he is more than capable of defeating Gio Ponti. The only concern is that he has not raced since March. He may not be completely ready for a race of this caliber. But ready or not, he deserves a shot at earning his spot in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela and is trained by Bill Mott.

#4: GIO PONTI (7-5)
The overwhelming morning line favorite, Gio Ponti has turned in some tremendous efforts over the past year, but just keeps being beaten by small margins. This streak of bad luck began last October, when he ran second in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (gr. I) after taking the lead at the eighth pole. Two things beat him that day, the bog-like soft turf course and the mile and a half distance.

Another second place finish followed, in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Once again, Gio Ponti took the lead, but lost it to Zenyatta in the final strides. Given a bit of a rest, the dual champion returned in the Tampa Bay Stakes, where he finished second yet again, just failing to catch Karelian on the wire.

Then came a trip to Dubai, where he ran fourth, beaten only a lengths and a half after chasing a very slow pace. Returned to the United States, he took the lead for a brief moment in the stretch of the Manhattan Handicap (gr. I) but lost it to his stablemate Winchester, being beaten by a half-length.

Then came his only win of 2010, a hard fought neck victory in the Man o' War (gr. I). Last early through fractions of :52 1/5 and 1:18 flat, Gio Ponti had three lengths to make up on longshot Mission Approved in the final eighth of a mile. Amazingly, he pulled it off, closing his final quarter mile in less than 22 seconds to grab the victory.

A month later, it looked like Gio Ponti was going to score a repeat victory in the Arlington Million Stakes (gr. I) when he took the lead in the stretch, but previously unheralded European invader Debussy proved too good, rallying furiously along the rail to score a half-length upset victory.

This brings Gio Ponti to today's race. He has not raced in a one mile event since March 2009, when he beat Ventura by a nose in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap (gr. I). He should be flying late tomorrow, but if he can catch Courageous Cat and Get Stormy remains to be seen.

He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and is trained by Christopher Clement.

#5: SOCIETY'S CHAIRMAN (12-1)
A win here, a few losses there. That is the story of Society’s Chairman. It's not that he is a bad horse. On the contrary, he is a very good horse. He has amassed earnings of $533,033 and finished third in the grade I Makers Mark Mile earlier this year.

His last two races have been less than top class, however. In the small, restricted Halton Stakes, he took the lead in the stretch, only to be beaten by a half-length. Prior to that, he ran fifth, beaten over eight lengths, in the King Edward Stakes (gr. II). If he runs back to the form he showed in the Makers Mark, he'll be right in contention in the stretch. But under the circumstances, he doesn't appear to be good enough.

He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and is trained by Roger Attfield.

#6: ENRICHED (7-2)

Enriched has shown potential for a while now, but has had a bit of trouble showing it off. Known by many as "Lava Man's half-brother", Enriched will be making his tenth start of the year tomorrow. He began 2010 with some less than stellar performances in some state-restricted stakes races, the came through with a win in an allowance optional claiming event. Shipped to Churchill Downs and tried on dirt in the Alysheba Stakes, he ran a solid third. However, it was his next start that showed what a nice horse Enriched can be.

Sent off as the favorite in a one mile turf allowance race, Enriched sat just off the earlier pace and drew off impressively through the stretch to win by over nine lengths, stopping the clock in 1:33 1/5. A third place finish in the grade I Eddie Read Stakes followed, then a third in the grade II San Diego Handicap over Del Mar's synthetic track a week later. In his final start prior to tomorrow's race, he won the Del Mar Mile Handicap (gr. II) by three quarters of a length. If he runs his best race tomorrow, he'll be right there at the finish.


So, who are my picks? Well, it was a very difficult race to handicap. I don't believe that Gio Ponti will rally fast enough to win, but if this is the case, who will beat him?

My pick, after a lot of thought, is Get Stormy. His last two races have been very, very good. I think that he will get the jump on Gio Ponti turning for home and hold too large an advantage at the eighth pole for Gio Ponti to catch him.
Here are my fill picks. . .

1 Get Stormy
2 Gio Ponti
3 Courageous Cat
4 Enriched
5 Society's Chairman
6 Acting Zippy

It should be a good race, and the American favorite for the Breeders' Cup Mile will likely come out of this race.

OTHER PICKS

ANCIENT TITLE BREEDERS' CUP STAKES (gr. I)

A six furlong prep race for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, the grade I Ancient Title Stakes has drawn a very nice field of eight, led by grade I winners Cost of Freedom, E Z's Gentleman, Dancing in Silks, and Smiling Tiger. Dancing in Silks won the Breeders' Cup Sprint last year in a 25-1 upset, but has shown very little since then. In his most recent start, the state-restricted Pirates Bounty Stakes, he returned off of a six month layoff to finish a late running fourth in a race with very little pace. Obviously, if he gets a little more to run at today, he'll be flying late. But the question is, will he get that pace?

Several of the other runners here have shown early speed, including Smiling Tiger, but I don't see an all-out speed dual occurring here. That's why I'm going with Cost of Freedom. The seven year old gelding's biggest win came in the 2008 Ancient Title Stakes, but perhaps his best performance came in last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he finished third, beaten a head for all the money. He has made four starts this year, winning an optional claiming event and the grade III Los Angeles Handicap. He got off to a poor beginning in the Bing Crosby Stakes and was unable to get to the lead, which is why he ran fifth of sixth. Tried on turf in the Green Flash Handicap, he raced second most of the way but ended up finishing fourth. However, he was beaten only a half-length, and Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner California Flag is the horse that won the race, so it was by no means a poor performance.

Here are my picks. . .

1 Cost of Freedom
2 Smiling Tiger
3 E Z's Gentleman
4 Dancing in Silks
5 Supreme Summit
6 Gato Go Win
7 Truest Legend
8 New Bay

One or two Breeders' Cup Sprint contenders should emerge from this race. It would be great to see Dancing in Silks pull off a win, but I can't see it happening.

OAK TREE MILE (gr. II)

With Sidney's Candy scratched, the race lost much of its luster, as well as the morning line favorite. One horse I like is Victor's Cry. I think that his poor performance in the Woodbine Mile was because he sat too close to the early pace, leaving the confirmed closer empty when the field turned for home. If he runs like he did when he won the Shoemaker Mile (gr. I) earlier this year, he should win this race with no trouble.

Blue Chagall is another horse I like. Although disappointing in his last race, the Del Mar Mile (gr. II), he was closing in late there and has back class. His win in the Wickerr Stakes two starts back was very nice. However, he has yet to run a really nice race on the Hollywood Park turf course, which is concerning.

Tropic Storm is another obvious contender, based on his sharp win in the Windy Sands Handicap last time out. However, that race was on the synthetic main track at Del Mar, and I'm not sure if he is as good on turf. But he certainly has a shot.

If the pace is quick, which seems unlikely, expect to see Meteore coming late. He hasn't won in over a year, but he has shown a nice turn of foot from time to time.

But perhaps the most interesting runner in the race is Colgan's Chip. Last time out, in a one mile optional claiming event, he took the field wire-to-wire while rattling off fractions of :22 flat, :45 2/5, and 1:09 flat on his way to a 1:33 flat mile. If he should get a loose lead, he will be very hard to catch.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Colgan's Chip
2 Victor's Cry
3 Tropic Storm
4 Blue Chagall
5 Meteore
6 Liberian Freighter

It's worth a shot!

ABU DHABI FIRST LADY STAKES (gr. I)

Wasted Tears, Proviso, or Gotta Have Her? This race will likely come down to the three favorites.

It's hard not to like Proviso. After all, the five year old mare has won three consecutive grade I races, including the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap against males. Going a mile on turf is what she does best, and this race is practically designed for her.

On the other hand, it's hard not to like Wasted Tears. She has won eleven of her sixteen races, and has not lost a race on turf since March 15th. . . 2008. She has proven versatile, capable, and game. If you're going to beat her, you're going to have to run as fast as you possibly can.

Gotta Have Her is the third choice on the morning line. She has had a long, illustrious career, a career which is coming to a conclusion at the end of this year. Despite her excellent credentials (she has won more than her share of stakes races) she has never won a grade I race. Not ever. She finished second once, but has never seen her name marked in history as a winner of one of the most elite races in the world. A win here would forever secure her name in history, as well as enhance her resume when she becomes a broodmare. However, one mile is, perhaps, just a little bit beyond her very best distance.

Grade II stakes winner Dynaslew should be in with a chance too. The impressive winner of the Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) earlier this year, she comes off of a very sharp victory (albeit in surprise fashion) in the grade II Ballston Spa Stakes. She should be right in the mix tomorrow.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Proviso
2 Wasted Tears
3 Gotta Have Her
4 Dynaslew
5 C. S. Silk
6 Fantasia
7 Kiss Mine
8 Cure for Sale
9 West Hope

As much as I like Wasted Tears, I think that Proviso is slightly better. I'm looking forward to this race a lot, hoping that Proviso will stamp her ticket to the Breeders' Cup Mile next month. Who knows? If she wins here, Proviso could be America's best hope in the Mile!

QUICK PICKS

JAMAICA HANDICAP (gr. I)

1 Krypton
2 Two Notch Road
3 Lethal Combination

FRIZETTE STAKES (gr. I)

1 A Z Warrior
2 R Heat Lightning
3 Valiant Passion

CHAMPAGNE STAKES (gr. I)

1 Uncle Mo
2 Brother in Arms
3 Meridian Magic

WOODFORD STAKES (gr. III)

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 California Flag
3 Silver Timber

DIXIANA BREEDERS' FUTURITY (gr. I)

1 Major Gain
2 Santiva
3 J. B.'s Thunder

THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA STAKES (gr. II)

1 Dubai Majesty
2 Informed Decision
3 Champagne d’Oro

-Keelerman

PICKS FOR THE DARLEY ALCIBIADES

One of the two major preps remaining for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) has drawn a field of seven.

The morning line favorite is Wickedly Perfect, who comes off of a second place finish to Tell a Kelly in the Darley Debutante last time out. That was her first defeat, but it really wasn't a bad race. She set a very fast pace in that seven furlong race and held on well for second. She will likely be favored and deserves to be.

However, the filly I like is the undefeated Wonderlandbynight. Four starts, four victories, the most recent being her last-to-first win in the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr. III) over the Arlington Park synthetic track. It was a very sharp performance and she should be able to repeat it here.

The morning line third choice is Jordy Y, who won her first two races before finishing second to Wonderlandbynight in the Lassie.

Although it took Harlan's Ruby four starts to break her maiden, when she finally did, it was impressive. Sitting well off of the early pace, she rocketed home very quickly to score by two lengths.

Dos Lunas, 5-1 on the morning line, most recently finished fourth in the grade III Natalma Stakes at Woodbine.

Longshots Brushfirefairytale and Forest Legend complete the field.

Here are my picks. . .

1 Wonderlandbynight
2 Wickedly Perfect
3 Jordy Y
4 Harlan's Ruby
5 Dos Lunas
6 Forest Legend
7 Brushfirefairytale

-Keelerman

OPENING DAY PICKS FOR KEENELAND ---- October 8th, 2010

Today is an important day for horse racing. Today is the opening day of the Keeneland fall meet, one of the most prestigous meets in all of racing.

Two stakes races are to be run there today --- the grade I Darley Alcibiades Stakes and the grade III Phoenix Stakes. Both have drawn excellent fields and should turn out one or two top Breeders' Cup contenders.

The Phoenix Stakes, a six furlong main track prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint one month from now, has drawn a field of eleven, led by Carter Handicap winner Warrior's Reward. The four year old son of Medaglia d'Oro comes off of a fast-closing fourth place finish in the Forego Stakes (gr. I). He has run here at Keeneland only once before, running fifth in the Perryville Stakes (gr. III) last October. However, he had the early lead in that race, and it's apparent now that he is much more effective when coming from well off the pace.

Six furlongs may be just a bit too short for this colt, however, as he has proven best at seven furlongs.

The morning line second choice is Hollywood Hit. The four year old gelding by Cactus Ridge is coming off of a half length win in the six furlong King Corie Stakes just sixteen days ago. However, in that race, he closed his final furlong in a pedestrian 13.50 seconds. It is unlikely that he could hold off Warrior's Reward if he turns in a similar effort today.

On the other hand, he set a seven furlong track record of 1:20.07 earlier this year at Woodbine, defeating favored Fatal Bullet by three lengths.

Despite the presence of these very fine horses, my pick is Wise Dan. The three year old gelding by Wiseman's Ferry has not raced since May, but has won two of his three starts. He has proven effective while racing on the lead and just off of it, so he should be able to adapt to any pace scenario.

So my picks are. . .

1 Wise Dan
2 Warrior's Reward
3 Moralist

I shall be back later today with my picks for the Alcibiades.

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS ---- October 7th, 2010

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Blame
4 Quality Road
5 Richard's Kid

TURF

1 Fame and Glory
2 Winchester
3 Champ Pegasus
4 Paddy O'Prado
5 Workforce

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Sidney's Candy
3 Gio Ponti
4 Paco Boy
5 Court Vision

SPRINT

1 Big Drama
2 Kinsale King
3 Crown of Thorns
4 Girolamo
5 Riley Tucker

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Havre de Grace
3 Life at Ten
4 Unrivaled Belle
5 Switch

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Stacelita
3 Red Desire
4 Ave
5 Eclair de Lune

DIRT MILE

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Musket Man
3 Tizway
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Vineyard Haven

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Rightly So
4 Evening Jewel
5 My Jen

TURF SPRINT

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 Rose Catherine
3 California Flag
4 Bridgetown
5 Unzip Me

MARATHON

1 Rezif
2 Eldaafer
3 Atoned
4 A. U. Miner
5 Helicopter

JUVENILE

1 Boys at Tosconova
2 Uncle Mo
3 Jaycito
4 J P's Gusto
5 Pathfork

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Tell a Kelly
2 Rigoletta
3 Awesome Feather
4 R Heat Lightning
5 Wonderlandbynight

JUVENILE TURF

1 Air Support
2 Soldat
3 Bandbox
4 Major Gain
5 Bear's Future

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 Winter Memories
2 Theysken's Theory
3 New Normal
4 Together
5 More Than Real

WORKFORCE REDEEMS HIMSELF IN THE ARC!

Record-setting Epsom Derby winner Workforce redeemed himself this morning, outfighting Nakayama Festa to win the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe by a head.

The win helps restore the reputation of the winner, who was extremely disappointing is his last race, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

It was a roughly run race, with a good deal of bumping on the final turn, but the top two finishers did not appear to be involved. There is a steward's inquiry, however.

It was the first Arc victory for trainer Sir Michael Stoute and rider Ryan Moore.

Unofficial results are. . .

1. Workforce
2. Nakamaya Festa
3. Sarafina
4. Behkabad
5. Fame and Glory

Seven year old gelding Youmzain was all but eased in the final strides, as he had no chance to win. He had finished second in three consecutive runnings of the Arc.

The turf course was labled soft.

One race earlier, two time Breeders' Cup Mile champion Goldikova swept to victory in the Qatar Prix de la Foret, holding off the late charge of Paco Boy to win by a head.

Sent right to the lead by Olivier Peslier, the filly was passed by Regal Parade as the field approached the homestretch, but Goldikova came right back at him to claim her eleventh grade/group I victory.

A defense of her Breeders' Cup Mile title is next.

-Keelerman

RICHARD'S KID WINS THE GOODWOOD!

Patiently ridden by Alonso Quinonez, Richard's Kid rallied strongly along the rail to defeat Crown of Thorns by three quarters of a length in the $250,000 Goodwood Stakes.

Crown of Thorns broke sharply and dualed for the lead with heavy favorite Twirling Candy. The latter, undefeated in four starts, was sent off as the 3-5 and looked like he was on his way to the Breeders' Cup Classic as the field turned for home, but Crown of Thorns came right back at him and nearly got the job done in his first two turn race since 2008, but Richard's Kid proved just too good.

Dakota Phone finished third, followed by Twirling Candy.

-Keelerman

ZENYATTA WINS THE LADY'S SECRET!

Heavily favored Zenyatta made her typical late run on the far outside to win the Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I) by a perfectly timed half length.

Taken well off the pace by Mike Smith, Zenyatta was closer than usual on the far turn and just caught Switch to score her ninteenth consecutive victory, which equals the modern day North American record set by Pepper's Pride two years ago.

Moon de French set the early pace, followed by Emmy Darling and Switch. Switch, a three year old filly who had beaten Blind Luck at this track earlier this year, took the lead as the field turned for home, but was unable to hold off the great mare.

Moon de French finished in a dead-heat for that with Satan's Quick Chick. Emmy Darling trailed.

The final time was 1:42 4/5. Zenyatta was greeted in the winners circle by many cheers, and exited the winners circle to the cries of "Zenyatta! Zenyatta! Zenyatta!"

-Keelerman

JAYCITO WINS THE NORFOLK STAKES!

Despite being caught four wide on both turns, Jaycito made a steady move on the far outside to just wear down J. P.'s Gusto to win the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes (gr. I).

J. P.'s Gusto, the heavy favorite, tracked longshot leader Clearance Clarence in the early going and took the lead around the far turn, but was unable to hold off the winner.

Riveting Reason finished third, followed by Clearance Clarence.

-Keelerman

REDDING COLLIERY WINS THE HAWTHORNE GOLD CUP!

Redding Colliery went right to the front and held his lead to the wire in the 74th running of the Hawthorne Gold Cup.

Ridden by A. R. Napravnik, Redding Colliery had a ten length lead as they turned for home and just held off the game bids of Giant Oak and A. U. Miner to win by three quarters of a length.

Going Ballistic finished fourth.

-Keelerman

LOOKIN AT LUCKY WINS THE INDIANA DERBY!

Ridden patiently by Martin Garcia, Lookin at Lucky mounted a five wide bid to win the $500,000 Indiana Derby by a length.

91-1 longshot Indy Bull took the early lead and carved out testing fractions of :22 4/5 and :46 4/5 while battling with Wordly. Thiskyhasnolimit was right in behind them and made a strong move to take the lead in the stretch, but was unable to hold off the challenge of Lookin at Lucky.

The final time was 1:43 2/5 on a track labled muddy. St. Maximus Gato finished third, followed by Wordly.

-Keelerman

HAYNESFIELD WINS THE JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP!

Haynesfield went right to the lead and never looked back, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup an incredible six lengths in a 7-1 upset.

Allowed to set a fairly slow pace, Haynesfield, under Ramon Dominguez, rattled off fractions of :24, :48, and 1:13 before coasting home under absolutely no urging whatsoever.

Heavy favorite Blame outrallied Fly Down to finish second, although he never threatened the winner. Hold Me Back finished fourth.

The final time was 2:02 2/5.

-Keelerman

HAVRE DE GRACE UPSETS THE COTILLION!

Second choice Havre de Grace got the jump on Blind Luck in the stretch and held off the 3-5 favorite to win the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes by a neck.

Blind Luck, who was giving the winner ten pounds, made a very strong run in late stretch but was unable to overcome the winner.

It was a bit of revenge for Havre de Grace, who had finished second to Blind Luck in both the Delaware Oaks (gr. II) and the Alabama Stakes (gr. I).

Awesome Maria finished third, followed by Bonnie Blue Flag and Absinthe Minded.

-Keelerman

WINCHESTER WINS THE JOE HIRSCH!

Ridden patiently by Cornelio Velasquez, Winchester made a strong move in late stretch to nab favored Paddy O'Prado to win the $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Invitational Classic.

Paddy O'Prado made a very wide and very bold move on the far turn to take the lead, but was unable to withstand the winner's late charge.

Longshot Grassy finished third, followed by the mare Treat Gently. Pacesetter Interpatation, who won this race last year, set the pace and gave way in the stretch.

The final time was 2:36 flat.

-Keelerman

LIFE AT TEN WINS THE BELDAME!

Life at Ten made a strong move on the far turn to win the $350,000 Beldame Stakes (gr. I) by two lengths.

Rated just off the pacesetters by jockey John Velazquez, Life at Ten, sent off as the 7-5 second choice, rebounded strongly off of her poor performance in the Personal Ensign Stakes last time out and only made clearer how good Rachel Alexandra was that day.

Queen Martha and Unrivaled Belle set the early pace, rattling off fractions of :23 1/5, :47 2/5, and 1:12 1/5. Queen Martha gave way in the stretch, but the 6-5 Unrivaled Belle fought on down the stretch to finish second. Persistently finished a long way back in third, followed by Queen Martha and Miss Match.

-Keelerman

AVE WINS THE FLOWER BOWL!

Under a brilliant ride by Javier Castellano, Ave charged through in between horses to pull a 10-1 upset in the Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes.

On a course rated yielding, Gozzip Girl led the way through pedestrian fractions, getting three quarters of a mile in 1:19 flat. Favored Red Desire was getting a perfect trip just off the lead, and made a strong move in between horses to take the lead as the field turned for home.

Changing Skies was moving strongly on the outside and looked like a winner at the eighth pole, but Ave through in her late bid to score by a head.

The final time was 2:08 2/5.

-Keelerman

A TWO YEAR OLD TO WATCH

Although the final time wasn't very fast, Bellamy Jones looked very impressive while winning the Indiana Futurity at Hoosier Park today.

Sent off as the 9-2 second choice, the son of Bellamy Road took the early lead and never looked back, winning by at least seven or eight lengths on a track labled muddy.

He was ridden by Fernando De La Cruz, and is trained by Robert Gorham. The colt is owned by Mast Thoroughbreds, LLC.

The future looks bright for Bellamy Jones, who according to his trainer, will be prepped for the top notch Indiana Stakes program coming up shortly.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- October 1st, 2010

Call it what you like. Super Saturday, Breeders' Cup Preview Day, October 2nd ---- it doesn't matter. Every horse racing fan anticipates this day every year, this is the day that many of the top contenders make their final starts before heading to the Breeders' Cup.

Grade I winners running this Saturday include Zenyatta, Blame, Blind Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Life at Ten, Paddy O'Prado, Persistently, Unrivaled Belle, Rail Trip, Twirling Candy, Awesome Gem, Richard's Kid, Red Desire, Forever Together, Gozzip Girl --- need I go on?

There are five grade I races to be run at Belmont Park on Saturday. Five grade I races. Four more are to be run at the Oak Tree meet. Because of the number of quality grade I races, it made selecting this week's feature race nearly impossible. However, I had to choose one, so I chose the mile- and-a-quarter Jockey Club Gold Cup from Belmont Park.

FEATURE RACE: THE JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP (gr. I)
Ten Furlongs on the dirt

The 92nd running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup has attracted a solid field of eight runners, led by dual grade I winner Blame. The race has always been a major highlight of the Belmont Park fall meet. Past winners include Curlin, Skip Away, Cigar, Easy Goer, Creme Fraiche, Slew o'Gold, John Henry, Affirmed, Exceller, Forego, Prove Out, Shuvee, Arts and Letters, Buckpasser, Kelso (who won the race five times), Sword Dancer, Gallant Man, Nashua, Hill Prince, Citation, Whirlaway, War Admiral, Twenty Grand, Gallant Fox, and Man o' War. Now that is an incredible list of horses.

Here are the runners. . .

#1: FLY DOWN (9-2)
Tough. When I think of Fly Down I think tough. One minute you think he's a superstar, the next minute you think "Why was I excited about this colt?" But he's tough, I'll give him that.

Perhaps it's the fact that he never tires. You can beat him, but you can bet that he's not going to be losing ground at the finish. Give him a length of ground and he'll mow you down. If you intend to hold him off, you'd better have guts, like Afleet Express did in the Travers Stakes.

Fly Down, a three year old son of Mineshaft, is rapidly becoming one of the best three year olds in the country. Trained by Nick Zito, he began his career last October by finishing a late running third in a maiden special weight. A similar event one month later yielded a half-length victory over First Dude. This would be the first of four times that Fly Down would meet First Dude, and it's safe to say after watching Fly Down come out in front each time that Fly Down is a step above his front-running counterpart.

Given a bit of a break, Fly Down returned to competition toward the end of February, where he just got up to catch First Dude to win an allowance race by a head. This performance made him the promising third choice in the Louisiana Derby, but a bad trip compromised his chances, and he ran ninth behind Mission Impazible, beaten just under seven lengths. It should be noted, however, that he was fourteen lengths off the lead at the eighth pole, meaning that he closed an incredible seven lengths in the final eighth of a mile.

He returned to competition six weeks later in the nine furlong Dwyer Stakes, a prep for the Belmont Stakes, and won going away by six lengths. Perhaps the best horse in the Belmont Stakes a month later, he was forced to steady on the first turn and was kept in a bit of a pocket for much of the race by the eventual winner Drosselmeyer. When he finally extracted himself, he made a good run but was unable to catch the winner, falling three quarters of a length short, although he did beat First Dude by a neck.

Two months later he returned to competition in the Jim Dandy Stakes, Sent off as the favorite, he was forced to check sharply in the stretch and ended up fifth, beaten four and a half lengths by A Little Warm. Then came the Travers Stakes, where he fell a nose short of defeating Afleet Express, despite coming very wide into the stretch and not changing leads.

Based on his last performance, and his good runs in the Dwyer and Belmont, it's safe to say that Fly Down should be breathing down Blame's neck tomorrow, and may prove to be more than the Whitney winner can handle. He will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.

#2: BLAME (8-5)
He's on a five race win streak. He's never run worse than third. He hasn't lost in over a year. Blame is the deserving favorite for tomorrow's Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Just as “tough” sums up Fly Down, “relentless” sums up Blame. He turned a four length deficit at the eighth pole of the Stephen Foster into a three-quarter length victory. He managed to pull off the impossible last time out, defeating Quality Road in the Whitney Handicap. This was despite having two lengths to make up at the eight pole and the fact that Quality Road was allowed to crawl through the first half mile in :48 seconds flat. The four year old son of Arch appears to be nearly unbeatable here.

However, there is one worrying thing. Blame has never run at Belmont Park, commonly referred to as "Big Sandy." He's won on Keeneland's Polytrack, he's won at Churchill Downs, Pimlico, and Saratoga --- but he has never even run on Big Sandy.

Is this a big deal? Probably not. But Belmont Park is indeed sandier than the tracks Blame is accustomed to, and it is a mile-and-a-half track, not a little one-mile oval. The turns are huge.

Of course, even if Blame doesn't care for Big Sandy, it doesn't mean that he will lose. He has class to back him up. Victories in the Whitney and Stephen Foster were very impressive, but his win in the Clark Handicap last year was perhaps his best performance. In that race, he battled with fellow sophomore Misremembered the length of the stretch and just barely hung on to a neck victory. Misremembered would go on to win the Santa Anita Handicap.

Seven consecutive three digit Beyer speed figures back him up too. He has Garrett Gomez in the saddle. He has been training nicely and should be ready for a top effort tomorrow. He will carry 126 pounds --- the highest impost in his life --- and is trained by Albert Stall.

#3: MYTHICAL POWER (10-1)
Since I have already summed up Fly Down and Blame in one word, I might as well continue this new trend with Mythical Power. The first word that comes to mind is "inconsistent." There is no better way to describe going from a win in a grade III stakes race to a last place finish in a similar race a month later, beaten twenty-four lengths. He has done this for his entire career. One moment, the son of Congaree looks like a world beater. The next minute he looks like a lower lever allowance runner.

Despite this, he is one of my favorite colts, and I was very pleased to see him finish second, albeit a distant second, to Quality Road in the Woodward Stakes last time out. It was one of his better efforts, and should he repeat it today he is certainly capable of hitting the board. On the other hand, he will be ridden by a new jockey tomorrow, John Velezquez. Garrett Gomez, who rode Mythical Power in the Woodward, will be riding Blame.

Can Mythical Power handle Belmont Park? Like Blame, he has never run there before. We'll find out tomorrow. He will carry 126 pounds and is trained by Bob Baffert.

#4: TRANQUIL MANNER (15-1)
Tranquil Manner in one word: Belated. As in belated rally. As powerful as his late rally can be, it often comes too late.

However, I think that he could potentially win this race, despite his humble beginnings.

It took him three tries to break his maiden. Six consecutive allowance races followed, from which he "won" two. (He only finished first in one, but the winner of another was disqualified, moving him up to first.) Tried in the Brooklyn Handicap, he failed to mount a bid and finished fifth.

An optional claiming event was next. He won the race by a length with a late run, which seemed to signal better things to come.

Better things did come. A late closing third in the Woodward Stakes, beaten a half-length for second, proved that he could muster quite a charge if given the opportunity.

Now he gets his best chance yet. A mile and a quarter in a race that may have just a bit of pace in it. His sire is Belmont Stakes winner and Horse of the Year A.P. Indy. His dam is Composure, a winner of the Las Birgenes Stakes (gr. I), Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I), and the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. II), as well as being the runner up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) and Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I). Her sire is Touch Gold, who won the 1997 Belmont Stakes. I believe that Tranquil Manner will relish the mile and a quarter distance of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, as well as the sweeping turns. Can he beat Blame, Fly Down, and Rail Trip? Probably not. But if everything goes exactly right, I would not be surprised.

He will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. He is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.

#5: DRY MARTINI (15-1)
Thirty three times Dry Martini has gone to post. But the seven year old gelding, sired by Slew Gin Fizz, has not been in the best of form lately. Last year, his late runs got him to victory in a couple of stakes races, including the Suburban Handicap. This year, his runs haven't had quite as much pep. His best race of the year was likely the Donn Handicap, where he finished second, thirteen lengths behind Quality Road. The gelding's career will likely be coming to a close soon, but he's not going to step aside. Returning to the site of his Suburban victory, he's going to give his all to try and overthrow Blame.

The one word I would use to describe Dry Martini is "gutsy."

When handicapping this race, I would throw out his last two races. Both were on turf, and both were probably a bit too far for him. This will be his third start off his lengthy layoff following the Donn, and I would not be surprised to see him return to his Donn form. He has not shouldered the 126 pounds that he will carry tomorrow in a while, but the weight shouldn't stop him. Edgar Prado will ride him, and he is trained by Barclay Tagg.

#6: HAYNESFIELD (8-1)
In a word: Fast.

Twice in his twelve race career, Haynesfield has put together four race win streaks. The first one, which began over two years ago and ended in March 2009, comprised of a maiden special weight, the Damon Runyun Stakes, the Count Fleet Stakes, and the Whirlaway Stakes. His second streak, which began in October 2009 and ended in two months ago, comprised of the Empire Classic, the Discovery Handicap (gr. III), an optional claiming event, and the Suburban Handicap (gr. II). It appears as though the son of Speightstown has improved vastly over the last twenty-four months.

What makes his victories even more impressive is his running style. In the Empire Classic over a sloppy sealed track, he ran a half mile in :45 4/5 en route to a three-quarter length victory. He carries his speed very well.

His last effort should probably be thrown out. In the Whitney, he broke through the gate prior to the start and didn't seem to be himself during the race, fading to finish fourth, beaten slightly more than eleven lengths.

Is a mile and a quarter too far for him? Perhaps. But remember, he is the lone speed in the race. Should he find himself on an uncontested early lead, he may prove impossible to catch. He will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.

#7: HOLD ME BACK (15-1)
Let me say this --- if the track turns up sloppy tomorrow, Hold Me Back could very well dominate this race.

A son of Giant's Causeway, Hold Me Back has beaten Quality Road before. In the Travers Stakes last year over a sloppy track, he blew right past the multiple grade I winner like he had run into a brick wall. Hold Me Back, in turn, was beaten by Summer Bird, but it was the best effort of his career and he can repeat it tomorrow if everything goes his way.

In one word, I would describe this colt as “versatile.” He has won on synthetics and run well on both dirt and turf. His last effort was very disappointing, being an eighth place finish in the Pacific Classic, but he been running rather well before that and could surprise everyone tomorrow if he gets a perfect setup. He will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He is trained by Bill Mott.

#8: RAIL TRIP (5-2)
One word: Brilliant.

He's made twelve starts, and has never finished worse than third. He has never been beaten by more than a length and a quarter. He's a grade I winner. He's Rail Trip.

And now, for the first time ever, the West Coast Wonder leaves California to take on some of the best horses on the east coast. Can he top the likes of Blame and Fly Down off of a twelve week layoff and while trying dirt for the first time?

It will be only his fourth start of the year. He began his 2010 campaign in May, while trained by Ron Ellis, and won the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (gr. II) by just over three impressive lengths. He looked even better in the June 12th Californian Handicap (gr. II), where he won by just under three lengths with a sharp final time of 1:48 2/5. Heavily favored to win the Hollywood Gold Cup a month later, he was taken further off the pace than usual and was forced wide on the far turn. He took the lead at the eighth pole, but was unable to hold off the veteran gelding Awesome Gem, who snuck through along the rail to grab a half-length upset victory.

Sent to the barn of Richard Dutrow, he was training toward a start in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) but developed a minor foot problem that caused him to miss the race. Now, a month later, he makes his much-anticipated east coast debut.

I really like the dirt-to-synthetic angle here, an angle that has worked so well for so many west coast runners. In my opinion, Rail Trip will improve in his first start on dirt, and should have no trouble getting a perfect stalking trip behind Haynesfield. The one question that remains is this --- is he actually good enough to defeat Blame? That is a question that will be settled on the racetrack tomorrow. For now, we can only speculate. But I'm going to infer that Rail Trip is more than capable of handling Blame and would not be surprised to see him beat the Whitney winner.

Rail Trip will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by C. Velasquez. He is trained by Richard Dutrow.


Having gone over the eight runners thoroughly, the time has come to make my selections. In the days leading up to the race, I assumed that I would pick Blame. Obviously a very good colt, I couldn't find any reasons not to pick him.

However, upon further examination of the past performances, I realize that Blame has several chinks in his armor that could potentially cause a problem. He has never traversed ten furlongs before, although his pedigree and his late runs seem to say that he will have no trouble with the added distance. The fact that he has never run at Belmont Park is also worrisome, especially with Belmont masters Fly Down, Haynesfield, and Dry Martini in the race. Those three have proven themselves over the difficult course and know the territory well; if Blame does not take to the track then they will not hesitate to swallow him up and leave him floundering. Therefore, here are my picks. . .

1 Fly Down
2 Rail Trip
3 Blame
4 Haynesfield
5 Tranquil Manner
6 Hold Me Back
7 Dry Martini
8 Mythical Power

I could have gone several directions here. It would have been very easy to go with the chalk and pick Blame to win. However, I just have a nagging feeling that he is not quite ready for this race. Perhaps he will bounce off of his huge Whitney score just a tad. So I have picked Fly Down to win, hoping that his experience at Belmont Park will come in handy as they turn into the homestretch. I have put Rail Trip in front of Blame as well, hoping that the transition to dirt will allow him to run even better. He should also get a terrific trip as well.

Now, having completed my analysis of this week's feature race, I shall now move on to smaller discussions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup undercard; an undercard that includes four other grade I stakes races.

VOSBURGH (gr. I)

Nine horses, six furlongs, $350,000 purse. Despite its grade I status, the Vosburgh Stakes did not draw even one grade I winner. But that doesn't matter, because the field that has turned out is very good indeed and the winner of this race should have a major impact on the Breeders' Cup Sprint this November.

The morning line favorite is Girolamo, who looked to have an unlimited future one year ago, when he won the grade II Jerome Handicap by a length and a quarter after an awkward break, earning a Beyer speed figure of 107. Tried against some of the best older horses in the country in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Godolphin colt finished last of twelve, twenty-nine lengths behind victorious Zenyatta.

Given an extremely long layoff, he returned in last month’s Forego (gr. I), where he ran fourth after making a three wide bid. He seems to be a versatile colt distance-wise, but six furlongs may be a little too short for him.

However, despite his fine credentials, I'm not going to pick him. There are four other horses here that really intrigue me, and they are Driven by Success, Latigo Shore, Snapshot, and Riley Tucker.

The first horse, Driven by Success, has a lot of class. . . sometimes. He has run tremendous races in small stakes races and optional claiming events, but whenever he has stepped up to a really tough race he has falteredd completely. In the grade I Carter Handicap earlier this year, he was unable to get to the lead and finished last. In the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) last November, he was unable to get a clear lead and finished last. In the Forego (gr. I) of 2009, he was unable to get anywhere near the lead and finished eighth. This is important because his running style is to go right to the lead and draw off. Perhaps the reason why he is unable to win in grade I races is the fact that he is simply unable to get a clear lead, and gives up rather easily when challenged. Still, his victory in the Vic Ziegel Memorial Stakes last time out was extremely impressive. On the other hand, a fast pace seems likely here tomorrow, and I can only assume that this colt will have trouble getting a clear lead.

Latigo Shore is perhaps the most interesting horse in the race. Although his best race came in a mile and seventy yards allowance race, he has shown some decent form sprinting. In his last race, the seven furlong grade I King's Bishop Stakes, he broke slowly and was twelve lengths off the lead after the first quarter mile. Amazingly, he managed to get up for third, beaten only three and a quarter lengths by Discreetly Mine, who is considered one of the best sprinters in the country right now. What made this feat even more impressive was the speed bias at Saratoga that day. All of the main track races run that day, save the Travers, were won in wire-to-wire fashion. A couple races before the King's Biship, My Jen finished second to the front-running Rapport in the Victory Ride Stakes after failing to mount her late run. She returned last week to win the Gallent Bloom Handicap against her elders while coming from well of the pace. That is the kind of speed bias Latigo Shore was up against.

Snapshot has been running very well for a while now, finishing second to Bribon in the True North Handicap (gr. II) two starts back, His form at Belmont Park is excellent, and I'm willing to throw out his disappointing run in the Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II) and assume that he didn't care for the Calder surface. If he rebounds to his performance in the True North, he'll be right there at the finish.

Finally, I've been a big fan of Riley Tucker ever since he blew past Atta Boy Roy to win the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) four starts back. Although he has been disappointing since then, this race could set up for him well and he should have some pace to run at this time around, something he had in the Aristides but not in two of his three starts since then. He should be able to handle a sloppy track too, if it continues to pour rain in New York like is has been for the past two days.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Latigo Shore
2 Snapshot
3 Riley Tucker
4 Girolamo
5 Wildcat Brief
6 Wall Street Wonder
7 Driven by Success
8 Golden Spikes

I'm going to be very, very daring and pick Latigo Shore to win while leaving Girolamo out of the trifecta. I'm going with my hunch that Latigo Shore's run in the King's Bishop was better than it appeared to be and that he will be able to finish off his late run this time.

FLOWER BOWL INVITATIONAL (gr. I)

This is going to be a fun race to watch, for there are many interesting horses running. Any grade I race is exciting, but this one has added interest due to the fact that the brilliant Japanese filly, Red Desire, will be making her American debut. Her arrival has sent ripples of excitement through the racing world, for she is one of the best fillies in the world, having finished third in the Japan Cup last November and having beaten the Dubai World Cup winner Gloria de Campeao in the group II Maktoum Challenge Round 3 in Dubai. In the Dubai World Cup itself, she finished eleventh, but was beaten by less than six lengths.

However, she would not be here right now had she not bled in a workout back in June; she would have likely stayed in Japan to continue her racing career. But in Japan you cannot run on Lasix, so it was to the United States with the fine filly.

If she is to win the Flower Bowl tomorrow, it will put the exclamation point on the quality of the foreign turf horses and send a strong message back to the racing leaders in the United States. Already we have seen our best turf horses fall prey to moderate group III horses from Europe; and Red Desire, although a group I caliber filly in Japan, is not the best of her division. The recently retired Vodka and the still racing Buena Vista have both proven to be more than Red Desire can handle on the most part. Should Red Desire win tomorrow in a dominate effort, it would only make clearer how good Vodka and Buena Vista are.

Her main rivals in the Flower Bowl are, unfortunately, weak at best. Only two are coming off of wins, and three of them are coming off of very disappointing efforts. The morning line second choice, Forever Together, is coming off of a third place finish in the Glen Falls Handicap (gr. III) and has not won a race since August 2009. The third choice, Keertana, won the Glen Falls Handicap but hasn't done anything spectacular otherwise. Co-third choice Ave is coming off of an eighth place finish in the Beverly D (gr. I). Perhaps the strongest contender from the United States is Shared Account, who was beaten a head in the grade I Diana Handicap last time out.

I have always liked Forever Together, and I was glad to hear that she would not be retired at the end of 2009, but I don't think that she can win here. She doesn't seem to be the same mare that she was in 2008, when she was the Champion Turf Female, or even the same mare that she was last year.

One interesting thing to note though is that Garrett Gomez will replace Julien Leparoux on Forever Together. Leparoux has been her regular rider for a long time, but will ride Gozzip Girl tomorrow. Perhaps Garrett Gomez can help Forever Together find her best form.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Red Desire
2 Forever Together
3 Shared Account
4 Keertana
5 Ave
6 Changing Skies
7 Gozzip Girl
8 Tarrip

It will be very interesting to see Red Desire against Forever Together. If the latter even shows just a spark of her old self, just a little bit more than she has lately than she will have every opportunity to win. But on the whole, I think that Red Desire is in better form right now and will win with authority.

BELDAME (gr. I)

The Beldame Stakes, named for the great mare from the turn of the twentieth century, may be short on runners, but not on talent. Unfortunately, this year's running will likely be remembered as the race in which Rachel Alexandra was supposed to run. The 2009 Horse of the Year was retired a few days ago, however, leaving a nearly unfillable void in the entries. Will the six fillies that have turned out put on a show great enough to erase the memories of the filly that isn't running? They have every chance to, for it is a fascinating speed-oriented bunch that has turned out.

This race could very well come down to jockey strategies. These fillies are very evenly matched and four of them have done their best running on or near the lead. Two of them have beaten Rachel Alexandra; two of them have been left in her wake.

The morning line favorite is Unrivaled Belle, a four year old daughter of Unbridled's Song who has finished first or second in nine of her ten starts. Her biggest win to date came in the grade II La Troinne Stakes, where she outgamed Rachel Alexandra to score by a head. Two subsequent starts have yielded runner up performances in grade I races, so her win over Rachel was obviously not a fluke performance. This filly does her best running just off the lead.

The second choice is Life at Ten, who had rattled off six consecutive wins prior to finishing a well beaten third in the grade I Personal Ensign Stakes. In that race, she dueled with Rachel Alexandra for the early lead and gave way as they turned for home, finishing eleven lengths behind the winner and ten behind Rachel. Three starts back, however, she handed Unrivaled Belle a three-length beating in the grade I Odgen Phipps Handicap at this very track, where she blazed three quarters of a mile in 1:08 2/5 on her way to victory in 1:40 3/5 in the mile and a sixteenth.

The third choice is Persistently, who rallied furiously to defeat Rachel Alexandra by a length in the Personal Ensign last time out. She drops back to one turn tomorrow, which isn't the best thing, but she should have plenty of pace to run at and her trainer, Shug McGaughey, thinks that she is ready. Coincidentally, Shug McGaughey was the trainer of Personal Ensign.

The fourth choice is the three year old Bonnie Blue Flag. Although it took her five tries to break her maiden, she has really taken off since scoring by two lengths in a maiden special weight. Victories in an allowance race and the seven furlong Cinemine Stakes followed, then a third in the six furlong Prioress (gr. I) and a second in the seven furlong Test (gr. I). Stretching out to two turns again, she should add even more speed to this already speedy race should she run. She is entered in the $500,000 Fixt Dixon Cottillion Stakes at Philidelphia Park tomorrow as well, and her trainer Bob Baffert is leaning toward running her there.

The fifth choice is Queen Martha, who for a brief moment appeared to be on her way to upsetting Rachel Alexandra in the ungraded Lady's Secret Stakes, but relented in deep stretch to finish second to the champion filly, beaten three lengths. Well bet in her next start, the Molly Pitcher (gr. II) at Monmouth, she ran a very disappointing fifth, beaten nearly seventeen lengths. However, should she rebound to her Lady's Secret form tomorrow, she'll be more than able to hold her own against the favorites.

Finally, the longshot is Miss Match, who comes into the Beldame off of a win in an allowance optional claiming event. She appears to be outclassed here, but if the pace is blazingly fast she could come running with her late rally. She was a grade I winner in her native Argentina, so you never know what she might do.

Here are my picks. . .

1 Life at Ten
2 Persistently
3 Unrivaled Belle
4 Queen Martha
5 Miss Match
6 Bonnie Blue Flag

I realize that Life at Ten is going to have to be sent to the lead since she drew the rail, but I think that under these conditions she will win the dual and hang on for the victory. Persistently should benefit from the likely fast pace, and should be closing well at the finish.

JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC INVITATIONAL (gr. I)

Undoubtedly the toughest race to handicap on the entire card, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational has drawn a large field of eleven, led by the brilliant three year old Paddy O'Prado. Can he be beaten?

In short, yes.

Although he has been very impressive in all of his turf races this year --- he is the undisputed king of turf three year olds --- he will be attempting to do two things tomorrow that he has never done before. He has never run at a mile and a half, and he has never run against his elders. And the elders that he will be facing are no slouches.

First, there's Al Khali and Winchester. The former just won the grade II Bowling Green Handicap over the latter, and the latter beat Gio Ponti in a grade I race.

There there's Telling and Bearpath. The former just won the grade I Sword Dancer Invitational Handicap over the latter, and the latter has shown to be a very good horse time and time again.

Then there's the mare Treat Gently. She appears lacking in turn of foot. She prefers the more subtle approach of merely grinding her opponents into the dust. This mare is not going to blow past you in a matter of strides and win by ten lengths. Rather, she is going to just keep coming at you with a long, grinding run.

Then there is Never On Sunday. He has beaten Goldikova and likes wet ground, which he will very likely get tomorrow.

Then there is Interpatation. He has not won since pulling a stunning 44-1 upset over Gio Ponti in this race last year, but really hasn't been running all that badly lately. Interestingly, he finished fourth in this race in 2006, third in 2007, second in 2008, and first in 2009. How can he possibly improve on that? About the only thing he can do to top last year's performance is break the track record, which seems unlikely since the record is 2:24 1/5 and I don't think that Interpatation is going to come anywhere near that tomorrow.

Finally, there are three longshots, Grassy, Solitaire, and Strike a Deal. Grassy's best run came in the grade I Jamaica Hanidcap over this course last year, where he ran fourth behind Take the Points, beaten only a dimishing length and a half. Solitaire comes off of an eighth place finish in the John's Call Stakes, where he failed to reach contention at any point. He also hasn't won since August 2009. Finally, Strike a Deal won the Dixie Handicap (gr. II) earlier this year but has failed to hit the board in four starts since then, even though he led by two lengths at the eighth pole of his last race, the eleven furlong Bowling Green Handicap. A mile and a half is really too far for him.

So can Paddy O'Prado beat this lot? I feel that he would need to get a perfect set up to win, and I'm going to be very, very daring and pick Interpatation for a repeat win. Yes, he is 20-1 on the morning line, but I think that his last couple of races have been deceivingly good and should the turf turn up very wet, he is more than capable of taking this field wire-to-wire.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Interpatation
2 Never On Sunday
3 Paddy O'Prado
4 Bearpath
5 Winchester
6 Telling
7 Al Khali
8 Treat Gently
9 Grassy
10 Strike a Deal
11 Solitaire

Very daring indeed, but I think that the circumstances are right for a shocking repeat by the eight year old gelding. I would actually be a bit surprised if Paddy O'Prado wins this race. I think that he will be able to take on a mile and a half at some point in his career, but as a three year old going up against his elders, I'm afraid that I can't pick him.

OAK TREE AT HOLLYWOOD PARK ANALYSIS

LADY'S SECRET (gr. I)

Thirty-five months ago, a three year old filly named Zenyatta won a maiden special weight race at six and a half furlongs. She looked like a special filly, but who would have guessed that she would be undefeated nearly three years later?

When Zenyatta started racing, Curlin had just concluded his three year old campaign. Rachel Alexandra was a yearling. Blind Luck was a weanling, and Boys at Tosconova hadn't even been born yet.

Seventeen races followed that maiden race. Thirteen of them were grade I races. Zenyatta won them all, by as many as four and a half lengths or as little as a head. Along the way, she has won three consecutive Vanity Handicaps, three consecutive runnings of the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, a Breeders' Cup Classic, a Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, two Milady Handicaps, two Apple Blossoms, and others. She owns the mile-and-a-sixteenth track record at Hollywood Park, and her pre-race antics are famous everywhere.

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, and Zenyatta is nearing the end of her long and illustrious career. Just two more races are left on her agenda, and one of them is tomorrow.

In less than 24 hours, she will aim to add another incredible accomplishment to her résumé in the grade I Lady's Secret Stakes. Should she win, not only will she have flown to victory in three consecutive runnings of the race, but she will equal the mark of 19 consecutive wins set by the undefeated Pepper's Pride two years ago. It is a modern day North American record, and equaling it would further enhance Zenyatta's already incredible credentials.

Five fillies and mares have turned out to face her, and they are not a bad group. Perhaps the most intriguing of the lot is Switch. The three year old filly is trained by John Sadler, and has already beaten Blind Luck over this very same track in the Hollywood Oaks (gr. II). She comes off of a win in the Torrey Pines Stakes, and although it is unlikely that she can hold off Zenyatta, she should certainly give the big mare a run for her money.

Rinterval, one of two runners trained by Eric Reed, comes off of a second place finish in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes to Zenyatta. She was only beaten a neck there, but it was obvious that Zenyatta could have won by much more had she wanted to.

The other Eric Reed-trained filly is Satans Quick Chick, who won the Raven's Run Stakes (gr. II) in an upset last fall. However, she has only made one start since then, in the Manatee Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs back in January, where she ran late closing second. Unfortunately for her, she has the same running style as Zenyatta, which is going to make it very hard to beat her.

Moon de French and Emmy Darling are the two longshots, the former having won the one mile Adoration Stakes a month ago and Emmy Darling having just emerged victorious from an allowance optional claiming race.

Here are my picks. . .

1 Zenyatta
2 Switch
3 Rinterval
4 Satans Quick Chick
5 Moon de French
6 Emmy Darling

There is no way I'm going to go against Zenyatta. I'm positive that she will emerge victorious from the Lady's Secret Stakes 19-for-19 and continue on her way to the Breeders' Cup Classic. This is history in the making, and I'll be watching as one of the greatest mares of all time aims to take one step closer to retiring undefeated.

You can watch the race on www.calracing.com. Just scroll down until you find the Live Video link and sign up. It's free and fun!

GOODWOOD (gr. I)

Supposedly the feature race on Oak Tree's Saturday card, the Goodwood Stakes will likely be eclipsed by the Lady's Secret, but it had still drawn a tough field of seven and is definitely worth seeing.

The morning line favorite is Twirling Candy, fresh off of a convincing but controversial victory in the Del Mar Derby (gr. II). He was much the best that day, winning by over three lengths, but ducked out and interfered to a great extent with Summer Movie, who would go on to finish last. Although it was apparent that the interference cost Summer Movie quite a bit of ground, the stewards let the final results stand, noting that Summer Movie was beaten six lengths for fifth and it was unlikely that he would have finished much better even if he hadn't been interfered with.

Therefore, having not been disqualified, Twirling Candy enters the Goodwood undefeated in four starts and aims to add a grade I win to his list of accomplishments tomorrow when he takes on his elders.

His elders are a tough group though, and they aren't going to let him win without a fight. Richard's Kid is coming off of a half-length triumph in the Pacific Classic (gr. I) last time out and should be coming strongly at the finish. Awesome Gem returns to the sight of his Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) victory over Rail Trip back in June, and will attempt to rebound off of his last place finish in the Pacific Classic. Crowded House comes into the Goodwood off of a fourth place finish in the Woodbine Mile (gr. I) thirteen days ago, which seems a bit quick. Prior to that, he had finished second to Richard's Kid in the Pacific Classic, a race in which he may have moved a bit soon.

Dakota Phone is also in with a shot. He won the San Diego Handicap (gr. II) in late July, and finished third in the Santa Anita Handicap back in March. In his last start, he ran third in the Pacific Classic.

Informed, who drew the rail, scored his biggest win back in June 2009, when he defeated Rail Trip in the Californian (gr. II) over this track. However, he has only raced once since then, finishing fourth in the Windy Sands Handicap, beaten three and three quarter lengths by the victorious Tropic Storm.

But of all the horses running in the Goodwood, the most fascinating is Crown of Thorns. His future looked extremely bright after he swept to victory in the 2008 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) around two turns. Many injuries have followed, and he has only made three starts since that race. All have been late-closing runner-up performances in sprint races. He ran second to Gayego in the grade I Ancient Title Stakes last October, then ran second beaten a nose in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. An injury kept him sidelined until the Pat O'Brien Stakes on August 28th, where he ran second to El Brujo, although he was coming fast at the finish.

It's a tough race to decipher, but here are my picks. . .

1 Crown of Thorns
2 Awesome Gem
3 Twirling Candy
4 Richard's Kid
5 Crowded House
6 Dakota Phone
7 Informed

I'm hoping that Crown of Thorns proves tomorrow that he might have been a Triple Crown contender if not for his injuries. It's going to be tough, but I think that he can stretch back out to a mile and an eighth and route successfully. This is one of those situations where he is either going to win impressively or lose badly. Let's hope he wins impressively to give his trainer, Richard Mandella, a Breeders' Cup starter!

YELLOW RIBBON (gr. I)

The 2010 running of the Yellow Ribbon Stakes has brought out a field from all over the world. Gypsy's Warning is from South Africa. Hibaayeb is from England, as are Restless Soul and Princess Taylor. Turning Top is from Ireland. Sweet and Flawless, Lilly La Pootz, and Go Forth North are from Kentucky, and Princess Haya is from Texas.

You can't get much more international than that.

It's an interesting lot that has turned out for tomorrow's race, and it is fairly difficult race to handicap. The morning line favorite, Gypsy's Warning, has only made three starts in the United States, but they have been good ones. In her American debut, she won the grade III Eatontown Handicap by a nose after going three wide every step of the way. In her second start, the Dance Smartly Stakes (gr. II), she ran fifth but was beaten only a length and a half. In her most recent start, the Beverly D. Stakes, she ran a fast closing third, beaten only a length and three quarters. She should relish the mile and a quarter distance here.

Hibaayeb is the second choice on the morning line, making her first start outside of Europe. The three year old filly has only won twice from ten starts, but is a group I winner in England. Her last few races have been disappointing, but her trainer expects a better performance on the hard Hollywood turf course.

Another top contender is Turning Top. She has won four of seven races since coming to the United States, and her last two performances have been very good. A victory in the ten furlong Beverly Hills Handicap (gr. III) over Princess Taylor set her up for the John C. Mabee Stakes (gr. II) where she ran fifth, beaten just two and a half lengths.

One horse that I really like is Princess Haya. Although she is unplaced in four starts this year, she has back class and really hasn't been running that badly. In her 2010 debut, she ran fifth in the one mile Wilshire Handicap (gr. III) beaten just two and a quarter lengths. In her next start, the nine furlong Gamely Stakes (gr. I), she ran into Tuscan Evening and Forever Together. Attempting to stalk the pace, rather than come from way back, Princess Haya faded to finish last of seven.

Returned to her off-the-pace style of running, she finished fourth in the Beverly Hills Handicap, beaten four lengths while giving the rest of the runners weight. Her most recent start came in the John C. Mabee, where she ran a rapidly closing fourth to be beaten only two lengths by some very good horses.

Lilly La Pootz and Go Forth North are also interesting. The former had been running in one claiming race after another in 2008 and 2009, competing at tracks like Emerald Downs, Hastings, and Golden Gate Fields. Now she is a respected stakes winner. In her stakes debut, the Osunitas Stakes, she won by a head with a great rush at the end. Run back three weeks later in the John C. Mabee, she finished second, beaten just a nose by Wasted Tears. Another three weeks later she ran in the Palomar Handicap (gr. II) where she finished third, beaten a diminishing three-quarters of a length by Gotta Have Her and Go Forth North.

Go Forth North, a three year old filly facing her elders, has already had some success against older horses. Although she lost her first six races, she has been nearly perfect since then. She broke her maiden on August 7th, charging late to win a maiden special weight by three-quarters of a length. Taking a big step up in class, she was tried against stakes horses in the Sandy Blue Handicap, where she finished in a dead-heat for the victory with Warren's Jitterbug. The final time for the one mile event was 1:34 1/5. Taking an even bigger class hop in the grade II Palormar Handicap, she nearly pulled an 11-1 upset, falling just a neck short of upsetting the very nice mare Gotta Have Her.

Princess Taylor comes into the Yellow Ribbon off of a win in the CTT and Thoroughbred Owners of California Handicap, where she just held off Catsalot to win by a half-length, completing the mile and three eighths in 2:14 4/5. Prior to that race, she ran third against Zenyatta in the grade I Clement L. Hirsch Stakes and finished second in the Beverly Hills Handicap.

Longshots Restless Soul and Sweet and Flawless complete the field.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Lilly Fa Pootz
2 Gypsy's Warning
3 Go Forth North
4 Princess Haya
5 Hibaayeb
6 Turning Top
7 Restless Soul
8 Princess Taylor
9 Sweet and Flawless

It's a tough race to decipher, all right. Restless Soul could run very well here if she gets some pace to run at, and the same goes for Princess Haya. But I'm going to go with Lilly Fa Pootz, who I feel has proven herself capable of winning a race of this caliber and should enjoy the added distance.

NORFOLK (gr. I)

Without a doubt, the Norfolk Stakes is going to have some influence on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The morning line favorite is J. P.'s Gusto, and a win here would likely make him the favorite for the Juvenile. The ridgling has won four of his five starts, culminating with an impressive victory of Jaycito in the Del Mar Futurity. The only question is, can he stretch his speed around two turns?

Acaffella. Second choice on the morning line, the colt began his career by running second in a maiden special weight at Del Mar. Sent north to Golden Gate Fields, he destroyed his competition in the mile and a sixteenth Angle Island Stakes, winning by a ridiculously easy six lengths. Is he good enough to take on Jaycito? Perhaps not, but he has proven himself around two turns.

Jaycito looks like a colt who is crying for distance. The 3-1 third choice here has finished second in both of his starts, but one of those was in the Del Mar Futurity, where he came from last. He will be ridden for the first time tomorrow by Mike Smith, as his regular rider, Martin Garcia, opted to ride Lookin at Lucky in the Indiana Derby instead.

Perhaps the most interesting horse, however, is Boxeur de Rues. The Kentucky-bred is undefeated in one start, but that one start came at Kempton Park in England one month ago. It will be interesting to see how well he does tomorrow.

Riveting Reason, Clearance Clarence, and Lucky Mr. K complete the field. Riveting Reason finished in a dead-heat for third in the Del Mar Futurity, Clearance Clarence comes off of a win in a maiden claiming race, and Lucky Mr. K most recently ran third in the I'm Smokin Stakes.

So here are my picks. . .

1 J. P.'s Gusto
2 Jaycito
3 Acaffella
4 Riveting Reason
5 Boxeur de Rues
6 Lucky Mr. K
7 Clearance Clarence

I'm pretty confident that J. P.'s Gusto can stretch his speed around two turns, and his class should pull him through even if he does have a bit of trouble.

OAK LEAF (gr. I)

Sunday's Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) was won by Blind Luck last year. Although it is unlikely that a filly as good as Blind Luck will emerge from this race this year, it is certainly possible when you have a filly like Tell a Kelly running.

Tell a Kelly is already a grade I winner. She came from last in the Darley Debutante to win going away by four and a half lengths, despite the fact that she trailed by two and a half lengths at the eighth pole and had to catch the brilliant Wickedly Perfect in order to win. She did both, and without much urging. Two turns seems to be exactly what Tell a Kelly wants, and should she emerge from the Oak Leaf Stakes with yet another grade I win, she will likely head to Louisville as the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Her competition on Sunday will be good, but not spectacular. Alienation is coming off of a second place finish to R Heat Lightning in the grade I Spinaway Stakes, but doesn't seem to be the type that wants to go this far. Rigoletta is coming off of a third place finish to Tell a Kelly in the Darley Debutante, and Izshelegal is coming off of a fouth place effort in that same race.

Indian Gracey and Pacific Pride, both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, could step up and run huge here. The former broke her maiden last time out by a neck, and the latter broke hers by two and a half lengths in her last start.

Finally, there is True Way of Grace, who won the Barretts Debutante last time out at Fairplex Park two weeks ago to secure her first victory. In that race, she closed her final sixteenth in just over six seconds to get up by a half-length.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Tell a Kelly
2 Rigoletta
3 Pacific Pride
4 Izshelegal
5 Alienation
6 True Way of Grace
7 Indian Gracey

I can't wait to see how Tell a Kelly does with a little more distance.

OTHER PICKS

Unfortunately, I can't discuss every great race that is to be run this weekend, so I'll have to make some quick picks for some of the other races.

CLEMENT L. HIRSCH MEMORIAL TURF CHAMPIONSHIP STAKES (gr. I)

1 Champ Pegasus
2 Bourbon Bay
3 Marlang

INDIANA DERBY (gr. II)

1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Thiskyhasnolimit
3 Nacho Friend

KELSO HANDICAP (gr. II)

1 Tizway
2 Regal Ransom
3 Cool Coal Man

PILGRIM STAKES (gr. III)

1 Air Support
2 Soldat
3 Powhatan Country

MISS GRILLO STAKES (gr. III)

1 A Brilliant Idea
2 Winter Memories
3 Fancy Point

Of course, that's not all of the grand races. In France on Sunday, there is the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe to be run. Fame and Glory takes on Cape Blanco and others, Goldikova makes her final start before the Breeders' Cup Mile, and lots of other racing action. This is one of the greatest weekends of the year. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman