Call it what you like. Super Saturday, Breeders' Cup Preview Day, October 2nd ---- it doesn't matter. Every horse racing fan anticipates this day every year, this is the day that many of the top contenders make their final starts before heading to the Breeders' Cup.
Grade I winners running this Saturday include Zenyatta, Blame, Blind Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Life at Ten, Paddy O'Prado, Persistently, Unrivaled Belle, Rail Trip, Twirling Candy, Awesome Gem, Richard's Kid, Red Desire, Forever Together, Gozzip Girl --- need I go on?
There are five grade I races to be run at Belmont Park on Saturday. Five grade I races. Four more are to be run at the Oak Tree meet. Because of the number of quality grade I races, it made selecting this week's feature race nearly impossible. However, I had to choose one, so I chose the mile- and-a-quarter Jockey Club Gold Cup from Belmont Park.
FEATURE RACE: THE JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP (gr. I)
Ten Furlongs on the dirt
The 92nd running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup has attracted a solid field of eight runners, led by dual grade I winner Blame. The race has always been a major highlight of the Belmont Park fall meet. Past winners include Curlin, Skip Away, Cigar, Easy Goer, Creme Fraiche, Slew o'Gold, John Henry, Affirmed, Exceller, Forego, Prove Out, Shuvee, Arts and Letters, Buckpasser, Kelso (who won the race five times), Sword Dancer, Gallant Man, Nashua, Hill Prince, Citation, Whirlaway, War Admiral, Twenty Grand, Gallant Fox, and Man o' War. Now that is an incredible list of horses.
Here are the runners. . .
#1: FLY DOWN (9-2)
Tough. When I think of Fly Down I think tough. One minute you think he's a superstar, the next minute you think "Why was I excited about this colt?" But he's tough, I'll give him that.
Perhaps it's the fact that he never tires. You can beat him, but you can bet that he's not going to be losing ground at the finish. Give him a length of ground and he'll mow you down. If you intend to hold him off, you'd better have guts, like Afleet Express did in the Travers Stakes.
Fly Down, a three year old son of Mineshaft, is rapidly becoming one of the best three year olds in the country. Trained by Nick Zito, he began his career last October by finishing a late running third in a maiden special weight. A similar event one month later yielded a half-length victory over First Dude. This would be the first of four times that Fly Down would meet First Dude, and it's safe to say after watching Fly Down come out in front each time that Fly Down is a step above his front-running counterpart.
Given a bit of a break, Fly Down returned to competition toward the end of February, where he just got up to catch First Dude to win an allowance race by a head. This performance made him the promising third choice in the Louisiana Derby, but a bad trip compromised his chances, and he ran ninth behind Mission Impazible, beaten just under seven lengths. It should be noted, however, that he was fourteen lengths off the lead at the eighth pole, meaning that he closed an incredible seven lengths in the final eighth of a mile.
He returned to competition six weeks later in the nine furlong Dwyer Stakes, a prep for the Belmont Stakes, and won going away by six lengths. Perhaps the best horse in the Belmont Stakes a month later, he was forced to steady on the first turn and was kept in a bit of a pocket for much of the race by the eventual winner Drosselmeyer. When he finally extracted himself, he made a good run but was unable to catch the winner, falling three quarters of a length short, although he did beat First Dude by a neck.
Two months later he returned to competition in the Jim Dandy Stakes, Sent off as the favorite, he was forced to check sharply in the stretch and ended up fifth, beaten four and a half lengths by A Little Warm. Then came the Travers Stakes, where he fell a nose short of defeating Afleet Express, despite coming very wide into the stretch and not changing leads.
Based on his last performance, and his good runs in the Dwyer and Belmont, it's safe to say that Fly Down should be breathing down Blame's neck tomorrow, and may prove to be more than the Whitney winner can handle. He will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
#2: BLAME (8-5)
He's on a five race win streak. He's never run worse than third. He hasn't lost in over a year. Blame is the deserving favorite for tomorrow's Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Just as “tough” sums up Fly Down, “relentless” sums up Blame. He turned a four length deficit at the eighth pole of the Stephen Foster into a three-quarter length victory. He managed to pull off the impossible last time out, defeating Quality Road in the Whitney Handicap. This was despite having two lengths to make up at the eight pole and the fact that Quality Road was allowed to crawl through the first half mile in :48 seconds flat. The four year old son of Arch appears to be nearly unbeatable here.
However, there is one worrying thing. Blame has never run at Belmont Park, commonly referred to as "Big Sandy." He's won on Keeneland's Polytrack, he's won at Churchill Downs, Pimlico, and Saratoga --- but he has never even run on Big Sandy.
Is this a big deal? Probably not. But Belmont Park is indeed sandier than the tracks Blame is accustomed to, and it is a mile-and-a-half track, not a little one-mile oval. The turns are huge.
Of course, even if Blame doesn't care for Big Sandy, it doesn't mean that he will lose. He has class to back him up. Victories in the Whitney and Stephen Foster were very impressive, but his win in the Clark Handicap last year was perhaps his best performance. In that race, he battled with fellow sophomore Misremembered the length of the stretch and just barely hung on to a neck victory. Misremembered would go on to win the Santa Anita Handicap.
Seven consecutive three digit Beyer speed figures back him up too. He has Garrett Gomez in the saddle. He has been training nicely and should be ready for a top effort tomorrow. He will carry 126 pounds --- the highest impost in his life --- and is trained by Albert Stall.
#3: MYTHICAL POWER (10-1)
Since I have already summed up Fly Down and Blame in one word, I might as well continue this new trend with Mythical Power. The first word that comes to mind is "inconsistent." There is no better way to describe going from a win in a grade III stakes race to a last place finish in a similar race a month later, beaten twenty-four lengths. He has done this for his entire career. One moment, the son of Congaree looks like a world beater. The next minute he looks like a lower lever allowance runner.
Despite this, he is one of my favorite colts, and I was very pleased to see him finish second, albeit a distant second, to Quality Road in the Woodward Stakes last time out. It was one of his better efforts, and should he repeat it today he is certainly capable of hitting the board. On the other hand, he will be ridden by a new jockey tomorrow, John Velezquez. Garrett Gomez, who rode Mythical Power in the Woodward, will be riding Blame.
Can Mythical Power handle Belmont Park? Like Blame, he has never run there before. We'll find out tomorrow. He will carry 126 pounds and is trained by Bob Baffert.
#4: TRANQUIL MANNER (15-1)
Tranquil Manner in one word: Belated. As in belated rally. As powerful as his late rally can be, it often comes too late.
However, I think that he could potentially win this race, despite his humble beginnings.
It took him three tries to break his maiden. Six consecutive allowance races followed, from which he "won" two. (He only finished first in one, but the winner of another was disqualified, moving him up to first.) Tried in the Brooklyn Handicap, he failed to mount a bid and finished fifth.
An optional claiming event was next. He won the race by a length with a late run, which seemed to signal better things to come.
Better things did come. A late closing third in the Woodward Stakes, beaten a half-length for second, proved that he could muster quite a charge if given the opportunity.
Now he gets his best chance yet. A mile and a quarter in a race that may have just a bit of pace in it. His sire is Belmont Stakes winner and Horse of the Year A.P. Indy. His dam is Composure, a winner of the Las Birgenes Stakes (gr. I), Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I), and the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. II), as well as being the runner up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) and Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I). Her sire is Touch Gold, who won the 1997 Belmont Stakes. I believe that Tranquil Manner will relish the mile and a quarter distance of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, as well as the sweeping turns. Can he beat Blame, Fly Down, and Rail Trip? Probably not. But if everything goes exactly right, I would not be surprised.
He will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. He is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.
#5: DRY MARTINI (15-1)
Thirty three times Dry Martini has gone to post. But the seven year old gelding, sired by Slew Gin Fizz, has not been in the best of form lately. Last year, his late runs got him to victory in a couple of stakes races, including the Suburban Handicap. This year, his runs haven't had quite as much pep. His best race of the year was likely the Donn Handicap, where he finished second, thirteen lengths behind Quality Road. The gelding's career will likely be coming to a close soon, but he's not going to step aside. Returning to the site of his Suburban victory, he's going to give his all to try and overthrow Blame.
The one word I would use to describe Dry Martini is "gutsy."
When handicapping this race, I would throw out his last two races. Both were on turf, and both were probably a bit too far for him. This will be his third start off his lengthy layoff following the Donn, and I would not be surprised to see him return to his Donn form. He has not shouldered the 126 pounds that he will carry tomorrow in a while, but the weight shouldn't stop him. Edgar Prado will ride him, and he is trained by Barclay Tagg.
#6: HAYNESFIELD (8-1)
In a word: Fast.
Twice in his twelve race career, Haynesfield has put together four race win streaks. The first one, which began over two years ago and ended in March 2009, comprised of a maiden special weight, the Damon Runyun Stakes, the Count Fleet Stakes, and the Whirlaway Stakes. His second streak, which began in October 2009 and ended in two months ago, comprised of the Empire Classic, the Discovery Handicap (gr. III), an optional claiming event, and the Suburban Handicap (gr. II). It appears as though the son of Speightstown has improved vastly over the last twenty-four months.
What makes his victories even more impressive is his running style. In the Empire Classic over a sloppy sealed track, he ran a half mile in :45 4/5 en route to a three-quarter length victory. He carries his speed very well.
His last effort should probably be thrown out. In the Whitney, he broke through the gate prior to the start and didn't seem to be himself during the race, fading to finish fourth, beaten slightly more than eleven lengths.
Is a mile and a quarter too far for him? Perhaps. But remember, he is the lone speed in the race. Should he find himself on an uncontested early lead, he may prove impossible to catch. He will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.
#7: HOLD ME BACK (15-1)
Let me say this --- if the track turns up sloppy tomorrow, Hold Me Back could very well dominate this race.
A son of Giant's Causeway, Hold Me Back has beaten Quality Road before. In the Travers Stakes last year over a sloppy track, he blew right past the multiple grade I winner like he had run into a brick wall. Hold Me Back, in turn, was beaten by Summer Bird, but it was the best effort of his career and he can repeat it tomorrow if everything goes his way.
In one word, I would describe this colt as “versatile.” He has won on synthetics and run well on both dirt and turf. His last effort was very disappointing, being an eighth place finish in the Pacific Classic, but he been running rather well before that and could surprise everyone tomorrow if he gets a perfect setup. He will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He is trained by Bill Mott.
#8: RAIL TRIP (5-2)
One word: Brilliant.
He's made twelve starts, and has never finished worse than third. He has never been beaten by more than a length and a quarter. He's a grade I winner. He's Rail Trip.
And now, for the first time ever, the West Coast Wonder leaves California to take on some of the best horses on the east coast. Can he top the likes of Blame and Fly Down off of a twelve week layoff and while trying dirt for the first time?
It will be only his fourth start of the year. He began his 2010 campaign in May, while trained by Ron Ellis, and won the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (gr. II) by just over three impressive lengths. He looked even better in the June 12th Californian Handicap (gr. II), where he won by just under three lengths with a sharp final time of 1:48 2/5. Heavily favored to win the Hollywood Gold Cup a month later, he was taken further off the pace than usual and was forced wide on the far turn. He took the lead at the eighth pole, but was unable to hold off the veteran gelding Awesome Gem, who snuck through along the rail to grab a half-length upset victory.
Sent to the barn of Richard Dutrow, he was training toward a start in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) but developed a minor foot problem that caused him to miss the race. Now, a month later, he makes his much-anticipated east coast debut.
I really like the dirt-to-synthetic angle here, an angle that has worked so well for so many west coast runners. In my opinion, Rail Trip will improve in his first start on dirt, and should have no trouble getting a perfect stalking trip behind Haynesfield. The one question that remains is this --- is he actually good enough to defeat Blame? That is a question that will be settled on the racetrack tomorrow. For now, we can only speculate. But I'm going to infer that Rail Trip is more than capable of handling Blame and would not be surprised to see him beat the Whitney winner.
Rail Trip will carry 126 pounds and will be ridden by C. Velasquez. He is trained by Richard Dutrow.
Having gone over the eight runners thoroughly, the time has come to make my selections. In the days leading up to the race, I assumed that I would pick Blame. Obviously a very good colt, I couldn't find any reasons not to pick him.
However, upon further examination of the past performances, I realize that Blame has several chinks in his armor that could potentially cause a problem. He has never traversed ten furlongs before, although his pedigree and his late runs seem to say that he will have no trouble with the added distance. The fact that he has never run at Belmont Park is also worrisome, especially with Belmont masters Fly Down, Haynesfield, and Dry Martini in the race. Those three have proven themselves over the difficult course and know the territory well; if Blame does not take to the track then they will not hesitate to swallow him up and leave him floundering. Therefore, here are my picks. . .
1 Fly Down
2 Rail Trip
3 Blame
4 Haynesfield
5 Tranquil Manner
6 Hold Me Back
7 Dry Martini
8 Mythical Power
I could have gone several directions here. It would have been very easy to go with the chalk and pick Blame to win. However, I just have a nagging feeling that he is not quite ready for this race. Perhaps he will bounce off of his huge Whitney score just a tad. So I have picked Fly Down to win, hoping that his experience at Belmont Park will come in handy as they turn into the homestretch. I have put Rail Trip in front of Blame as well, hoping that the transition to dirt will allow him to run even better. He should also get a terrific trip as well.
Now, having completed my analysis of this week's feature race, I shall now move on to smaller discussions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup undercard; an undercard that includes four other grade I stakes races.
VOSBURGH (gr. I)
Nine horses, six furlongs, $350,000 purse. Despite its grade I status, the Vosburgh Stakes did not draw even one grade I winner. But that doesn't matter, because the field that has turned out is very good indeed and the winner of this race should have a major impact on the Breeders' Cup Sprint this November.
The morning line favorite is Girolamo, who looked to have an unlimited future one year ago, when he won the grade II Jerome Handicap by a length and a quarter after an awkward break, earning a Beyer speed figure of 107. Tried against some of the best older horses in the country in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Godolphin colt finished last of twelve, twenty-nine lengths behind victorious Zenyatta.
Given an extremely long layoff, he returned in last month’s Forego (gr. I), where he ran fourth after making a three wide bid. He seems to be a versatile colt distance-wise, but six furlongs may be a little too short for him.
However, despite his fine credentials, I'm not going to pick him. There are four other horses here that really intrigue me, and they are Driven by Success, Latigo Shore, Snapshot, and Riley Tucker.
The first horse, Driven by Success, has a lot of class. . . sometimes. He has run tremendous races in small stakes races and optional claiming events, but whenever he has stepped up to a really tough race he has falteredd completely. In the grade I Carter Handicap earlier this year, he was unable to get to the lead and finished last. In the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) last November, he was unable to get a clear lead and finished last. In the Forego (gr. I) of 2009, he was unable to get anywhere near the lead and finished eighth. This is important because his running style is to go right to the lead and draw off. Perhaps the reason why he is unable to win in grade I races is the fact that he is simply unable to get a clear lead, and gives up rather easily when challenged. Still, his victory in the Vic Ziegel Memorial Stakes last time out was extremely impressive. On the other hand, a fast pace seems likely here tomorrow, and I can only assume that this colt will have trouble getting a clear lead.
Latigo Shore is perhaps the most interesting horse in the race. Although his best race came in a mile and seventy yards allowance race, he has shown some decent form sprinting. In his last race, the seven furlong grade I King's Bishop Stakes, he broke slowly and was twelve lengths off the lead after the first quarter mile. Amazingly, he managed to get up for third, beaten only three and a quarter lengths by Discreetly Mine, who is considered one of the best sprinters in the country right now. What made this feat even more impressive was the speed bias at Saratoga that day. All of the main track races run that day, save the Travers, were won in wire-to-wire fashion. A couple races before the King's Biship, My Jen finished second to the front-running Rapport in the Victory Ride Stakes after failing to mount her late run. She returned last week to win the Gallent Bloom Handicap against her elders while coming from well of the pace. That is the kind of speed bias Latigo Shore was up against.
Snapshot has been running very well for a while now, finishing second to Bribon in the True North Handicap (gr. II) two starts back, His form at Belmont Park is excellent, and I'm willing to throw out his disappointing run in the Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II) and assume that he didn't care for the Calder surface. If he rebounds to his performance in the True North, he'll be right there at the finish.
Finally, I've been a big fan of Riley Tucker ever since he blew past Atta Boy Roy to win the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) four starts back. Although he has been disappointing since then, this race could set up for him well and he should have some pace to run at this time around, something he had in the Aristides but not in two of his three starts since then. He should be able to handle a sloppy track too, if it continues to pour rain in New York like is has been for the past two days.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Latigo Shore
2 Snapshot
3 Riley Tucker
4 Girolamo
5 Wildcat Brief
6 Wall Street Wonder
7 Driven by Success
8 Golden Spikes
I'm going to be very, very daring and pick Latigo Shore to win while leaving Girolamo out of the trifecta. I'm going with my hunch that Latigo Shore's run in the King's Bishop was better than it appeared to be and that he will be able to finish off his late run this time.
FLOWER BOWL INVITATIONAL (gr. I)
This is going to be a fun race to watch, for there are many interesting horses running. Any grade I race is exciting, but this one has added interest due to the fact that the brilliant Japanese filly, Red Desire, will be making her American debut. Her arrival has sent ripples of excitement through the racing world, for she is one of the best fillies in the world, having finished third in the Japan Cup last November and having beaten the Dubai World Cup winner Gloria de Campeao in the group II Maktoum Challenge Round 3 in Dubai. In the Dubai World Cup itself, she finished eleventh, but was beaten by less than six lengths.
However, she would not be here right now had she not bled in a workout back in June; she would have likely stayed in Japan to continue her racing career. But in Japan you cannot run on Lasix, so it was to the United States with the fine filly.
If she is to win the Flower Bowl tomorrow, it will put the exclamation point on the quality of the foreign turf horses and send a strong message back to the racing leaders in the United States. Already we have seen our best turf horses fall prey to moderate group III horses from Europe; and Red Desire, although a group I caliber filly in Japan, is not the best of her division. The recently retired Vodka and the still racing Buena Vista have both proven to be more than Red Desire can handle on the most part. Should Red Desire win tomorrow in a dominate effort, it would only make clearer how good Vodka and Buena Vista are.
Her main rivals in the Flower Bowl are, unfortunately, weak at best. Only two are coming off of wins, and three of them are coming off of very disappointing efforts. The morning line second choice, Forever Together, is coming off of a third place finish in the Glen Falls Handicap (gr. III) and has not won a race since August 2009. The third choice, Keertana, won the Glen Falls Handicap but hasn't done anything spectacular otherwise. Co-third choice Ave is coming off of an eighth place finish in the Beverly D (gr. I). Perhaps the strongest contender from the United States is Shared Account, who was beaten a head in the grade I Diana Handicap last time out.
I have always liked Forever Together, and I was glad to hear that she would not be retired at the end of 2009, but I don't think that she can win here. She doesn't seem to be the same mare that she was in 2008, when she was the Champion Turf Female, or even the same mare that she was last year.
One interesting thing to note though is that Garrett Gomez will replace Julien Leparoux on Forever Together. Leparoux has been her regular rider for a long time, but will ride Gozzip Girl tomorrow. Perhaps Garrett Gomez can help Forever Together find her best form.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Red Desire
2 Forever Together
3 Shared Account
4 Keertana
5 Ave
6 Changing Skies
7 Gozzip Girl
8 Tarrip
It will be very interesting to see Red Desire against Forever Together. If the latter even shows just a spark of her old self, just a little bit more than she has lately than she will have every opportunity to win. But on the whole, I think that Red Desire is in better form right now and will win with authority.
BELDAME (gr. I)
The Beldame Stakes, named for the great mare from the turn of the twentieth century, may be short on runners, but not on talent. Unfortunately, this year's running will likely be remembered as the race in which Rachel Alexandra was supposed to run. The 2009 Horse of the Year was retired a few days ago, however, leaving a nearly unfillable void in the entries. Will the six fillies that have turned out put on a show great enough to erase the memories of the filly that isn't running? They have every chance to, for it is a fascinating speed-oriented bunch that has turned out.
This race could very well come down to jockey strategies. These fillies are very evenly matched and four of them have done their best running on or near the lead. Two of them have beaten Rachel Alexandra; two of them have been left in her wake.
The morning line favorite is Unrivaled Belle, a four year old daughter of Unbridled's Song who has finished first or second in nine of her ten starts. Her biggest win to date came in the grade II La Troinne Stakes, where she outgamed Rachel Alexandra to score by a head. Two subsequent starts have yielded runner up performances in grade I races, so her win over Rachel was obviously not a fluke performance. This filly does her best running just off the lead.
The second choice is Life at Ten, who had rattled off six consecutive wins prior to finishing a well beaten third in the grade I Personal Ensign Stakes. In that race, she dueled with Rachel Alexandra for the early lead and gave way as they turned for home, finishing eleven lengths behind the winner and ten behind Rachel. Three starts back, however, she handed Unrivaled Belle a three-length beating in the grade I Odgen Phipps Handicap at this very track, where she blazed three quarters of a mile in 1:08 2/5 on her way to victory in 1:40 3/5 in the mile and a sixteenth.
The third choice is Persistently, who rallied furiously to defeat Rachel Alexandra by a length in the Personal Ensign last time out. She drops back to one turn tomorrow, which isn't the best thing, but she should have plenty of pace to run at and her trainer, Shug McGaughey, thinks that she is ready. Coincidentally, Shug McGaughey was the trainer of Personal Ensign.
The fourth choice is the three year old Bonnie Blue Flag. Although it took her five tries to break her maiden, she has really taken off since scoring by two lengths in a maiden special weight. Victories in an allowance race and the seven furlong Cinemine Stakes followed, then a third in the six furlong Prioress (gr. I) and a second in the seven furlong Test (gr. I). Stretching out to two turns again, she should add even more speed to this already speedy race should she run. She is entered in the $500,000 Fixt Dixon Cottillion Stakes at Philidelphia Park tomorrow as well, and her trainer Bob Baffert is leaning toward running her there.
The fifth choice is Queen Martha, who for a brief moment appeared to be on her way to upsetting Rachel Alexandra in the ungraded Lady's Secret Stakes, but relented in deep stretch to finish second to the champion filly, beaten three lengths. Well bet in her next start, the Molly Pitcher (gr. II) at Monmouth, she ran a very disappointing fifth, beaten nearly seventeen lengths. However, should she rebound to her Lady's Secret form tomorrow, she'll be more than able to hold her own against the favorites.
Finally, the longshot is Miss Match, who comes into the Beldame off of a win in an allowance optional claiming event. She appears to be outclassed here, but if the pace is blazingly fast she could come running with her late rally. She was a grade I winner in her native Argentina, so you never know what she might do.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Life at Ten
2 Persistently
3 Unrivaled Belle
4 Queen Martha
5 Miss Match
6 Bonnie Blue Flag
I realize that Life at Ten is going to have to be sent to the lead since she drew the rail, but I think that under these conditions she will win the dual and hang on for the victory. Persistently should benefit from the likely fast pace, and should be closing well at the finish.
JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC INVITATIONAL (gr. I)
Undoubtedly the toughest race to handicap on the entire card, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational has drawn a large field of eleven, led by the brilliant three year old Paddy O'Prado. Can he be beaten?
In short, yes.
Although he has been very impressive in all of his turf races this year --- he is the undisputed king of turf three year olds --- he will be attempting to do two things tomorrow that he has never done before. He has never run at a mile and a half, and he has never run against his elders. And the elders that he will be facing are no slouches.
First, there's Al Khali and Winchester. The former just won the grade II Bowling Green Handicap over the latter, and the latter beat Gio Ponti in a grade I race.
There there's Telling and Bearpath. The former just won the grade I Sword Dancer Invitational Handicap over the latter, and the latter has shown to be a very good horse time and time again.
Then there's the mare Treat Gently. She appears lacking in turn of foot. She prefers the more subtle approach of merely grinding her opponents into the dust. This mare is not going to blow past you in a matter of strides and win by ten lengths. Rather, she is going to just keep coming at you with a long, grinding run.
Then there is Never On Sunday. He has beaten Goldikova and likes wet ground, which he will very likely get tomorrow.
Then there is Interpatation. He has not won since pulling a stunning 44-1 upset over Gio Ponti in this race last year, but really hasn't been running all that badly lately. Interestingly, he finished fourth in this race in 2006, third in 2007, second in 2008, and first in 2009. How can he possibly improve on that? About the only thing he can do to top last year's performance is break the track record, which seems unlikely since the record is 2:24 1/5 and I don't think that Interpatation is going to come anywhere near that tomorrow.
Finally, there are three longshots, Grassy, Solitaire, and Strike a Deal. Grassy's best run came in the grade I Jamaica Hanidcap over this course last year, where he ran fourth behind Take the Points, beaten only a dimishing length and a half. Solitaire comes off of an eighth place finish in the John's Call Stakes, where he failed to reach contention at any point. He also hasn't won since August 2009. Finally, Strike a Deal won the Dixie Handicap (gr. II) earlier this year but has failed to hit the board in four starts since then, even though he led by two lengths at the eighth pole of his last race, the eleven furlong Bowling Green Handicap. A mile and a half is really too far for him.
So can Paddy O'Prado beat this lot? I feel that he would need to get a perfect set up to win, and I'm going to be very, very daring and pick Interpatation for a repeat win. Yes, he is 20-1 on the morning line, but I think that his last couple of races have been deceivingly good and should the turf turn up very wet, he is more than capable of taking this field wire-to-wire.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Interpatation
2 Never On Sunday
3 Paddy O'Prado
4 Bearpath
5 Winchester
6 Telling
7 Al Khali
8 Treat Gently
9 Grassy
10 Strike a Deal
11 Solitaire
Very daring indeed, but I think that the circumstances are right for a shocking repeat by the eight year old gelding. I would actually be a bit surprised if Paddy O'Prado wins this race. I think that he will be able to take on a mile and a half at some point in his career, but as a three year old going up against his elders, I'm afraid that I can't pick him.
OAK TREE AT HOLLYWOOD PARK ANALYSIS
LADY'S SECRET (gr. I)
Thirty-five months ago, a three year old filly named Zenyatta won a maiden special weight race at six and a half furlongs. She looked like a special filly, but who would have guessed that she would be undefeated nearly three years later?
When Zenyatta started racing, Curlin had just concluded his three year old campaign. Rachel Alexandra was a yearling. Blind Luck was a weanling, and Boys at Tosconova hadn't even been born yet.
Seventeen races followed that maiden race. Thirteen of them were grade I races. Zenyatta won them all, by as many as four and a half lengths or as little as a head. Along the way, she has won three consecutive Vanity Handicaps, three consecutive runnings of the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, a Breeders' Cup Classic, a Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, two Milady Handicaps, two Apple Blossoms, and others. She owns the mile-and-a-sixteenth track record at Hollywood Park, and her pre-race antics are famous everywhere.
Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, and Zenyatta is nearing the end of her long and illustrious career. Just two more races are left on her agenda, and one of them is tomorrow.
In less than 24 hours, she will aim to add another incredible accomplishment to her résumé in the grade I Lady's Secret Stakes. Should she win, not only will she have flown to victory in three consecutive runnings of the race, but she will equal the mark of 19 consecutive wins set by the undefeated Pepper's Pride two years ago. It is a modern day North American record, and equaling it would further enhance Zenyatta's already incredible credentials.
Five fillies and mares have turned out to face her, and they are not a bad group. Perhaps the most intriguing of the lot is Switch. The three year old filly is trained by John Sadler, and has already beaten Blind Luck over this very same track in the Hollywood Oaks (gr. II). She comes off of a win in the Torrey Pines Stakes, and although it is unlikely that she can hold off Zenyatta, she should certainly give the big mare a run for her money.
Rinterval, one of two runners trained by Eric Reed, comes off of a second place finish in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes to Zenyatta. She was only beaten a neck there, but it was obvious that Zenyatta could have won by much more had she wanted to.
The other Eric Reed-trained filly is Satans Quick Chick, who won the Raven's Run Stakes (gr. II) in an upset last fall. However, she has only made one start since then, in the Manatee Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs back in January, where she ran late closing second. Unfortunately for her, she has the same running style as Zenyatta, which is going to make it very hard to beat her.
Moon de French and Emmy Darling are the two longshots, the former having won the one mile Adoration Stakes a month ago and Emmy Darling having just emerged victorious from an allowance optional claiming race.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Zenyatta
2 Switch
3 Rinterval
4 Satans Quick Chick
5 Moon de French
6 Emmy Darling
There is no way I'm going to go against Zenyatta. I'm positive that she will emerge victorious from the Lady's Secret Stakes 19-for-19 and continue on her way to the Breeders' Cup Classic. This is history in the making, and I'll be watching as one of the greatest mares of all time aims to take one step closer to retiring undefeated.
You can watch the race on www.calracing.com. Just scroll down until you find the Live Video link and sign up. It's free and fun!
GOODWOOD (gr. I)
Supposedly the feature race on Oak Tree's Saturday card, the Goodwood Stakes will likely be eclipsed by the Lady's Secret, but it had still drawn a tough field of seven and is definitely worth seeing.
The morning line favorite is Twirling Candy, fresh off of a convincing but controversial victory in the Del Mar Derby (gr. II). He was much the best that day, winning by over three lengths, but ducked out and interfered to a great extent with Summer Movie, who would go on to finish last. Although it was apparent that the interference cost Summer Movie quite a bit of ground, the stewards let the final results stand, noting that Summer Movie was beaten six lengths for fifth and it was unlikely that he would have finished much better even if he hadn't been interfered with.
Therefore, having not been disqualified, Twirling Candy enters the Goodwood undefeated in four starts and aims to add a grade I win to his list of accomplishments tomorrow when he takes on his elders.
His elders are a tough group though, and they aren't going to let him win without a fight. Richard's Kid is coming off of a half-length triumph in the Pacific Classic (gr. I) last time out and should be coming strongly at the finish. Awesome Gem returns to the sight of his Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) victory over Rail Trip back in June, and will attempt to rebound off of his last place finish in the Pacific Classic. Crowded House comes into the Goodwood off of a fourth place finish in the Woodbine Mile (gr. I) thirteen days ago, which seems a bit quick. Prior to that, he had finished second to Richard's Kid in the Pacific Classic, a race in which he may have moved a bit soon.
Dakota Phone is also in with a shot. He won the San Diego Handicap (gr. II) in late July, and finished third in the Santa Anita Handicap back in March. In his last start, he ran third in the Pacific Classic.
Informed, who drew the rail, scored his biggest win back in June 2009, when he defeated Rail Trip in the Californian (gr. II) over this track. However, he has only raced once since then, finishing fourth in the Windy Sands Handicap, beaten three and three quarter lengths by the victorious Tropic Storm.
But of all the horses running in the Goodwood, the most fascinating is Crown of Thorns. His future looked extremely bright after he swept to victory in the 2008 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) around two turns. Many injuries have followed, and he has only made three starts since that race. All have been late-closing runner-up performances in sprint races. He ran second to Gayego in the grade I Ancient Title Stakes last October, then ran second beaten a nose in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. An injury kept him sidelined until the Pat O'Brien Stakes on August 28th, where he ran second to El Brujo, although he was coming fast at the finish.
It's a tough race to decipher, but here are my picks. . .
1 Crown of Thorns
2 Awesome Gem
3 Twirling Candy
4 Richard's Kid
5 Crowded House
6 Dakota Phone
7 Informed
I'm hoping that Crown of Thorns proves tomorrow that he might have been a Triple Crown contender if not for his injuries. It's going to be tough, but I think that he can stretch back out to a mile and an eighth and route successfully. This is one of those situations where he is either going to win impressively or lose badly. Let's hope he wins impressively to give his trainer, Richard Mandella, a Breeders' Cup starter!
YELLOW RIBBON (gr. I)
The 2010 running of the Yellow Ribbon Stakes has brought out a field from all over the world. Gypsy's Warning is from South Africa. Hibaayeb is from England, as are Restless Soul and Princess Taylor. Turning Top is from Ireland. Sweet and Flawless, Lilly La Pootz, and Go Forth North are from Kentucky, and Princess Haya is from Texas.
You can't get much more international than that.
It's an interesting lot that has turned out for tomorrow's race, and it is fairly difficult race to handicap. The morning line favorite, Gypsy's Warning, has only made three starts in the United States, but they have been good ones. In her American debut, she won the grade III Eatontown Handicap by a nose after going three wide every step of the way. In her second start, the Dance Smartly Stakes (gr. II), she ran fifth but was beaten only a length and a half. In her most recent start, the Beverly D. Stakes, she ran a fast closing third, beaten only a length and three quarters. She should relish the mile and a quarter distance here.
Hibaayeb is the second choice on the morning line, making her first start outside of Europe. The three year old filly has only won twice from ten starts, but is a group I winner in England. Her last few races have been disappointing, but her trainer expects a better performance on the hard Hollywood turf course.
Another top contender is Turning Top. She has won four of seven races since coming to the United States, and her last two performances have been very good. A victory in the ten furlong Beverly Hills Handicap (gr. III) over Princess Taylor set her up for the John C. Mabee Stakes (gr. II) where she ran fifth, beaten just two and a half lengths.
One horse that I really like is Princess Haya. Although she is unplaced in four starts this year, she has back class and really hasn't been running that badly. In her 2010 debut, she ran fifth in the one mile Wilshire Handicap (gr. III) beaten just two and a quarter lengths. In her next start, the nine furlong Gamely Stakes (gr. I), she ran into Tuscan Evening and Forever Together. Attempting to stalk the pace, rather than come from way back, Princess Haya faded to finish last of seven.
Returned to her off-the-pace style of running, she finished fourth in the Beverly Hills Handicap, beaten four lengths while giving the rest of the runners weight. Her most recent start came in the John C. Mabee, where she ran a rapidly closing fourth to be beaten only two lengths by some very good horses.
Lilly La Pootz and Go Forth North are also interesting. The former had been running in one claiming race after another in 2008 and 2009, competing at tracks like Emerald Downs, Hastings, and Golden Gate Fields. Now she is a respected stakes winner. In her stakes debut, the Osunitas Stakes, she won by a head with a great rush at the end. Run back three weeks later in the John C. Mabee, she finished second, beaten just a nose by Wasted Tears. Another three weeks later she ran in the Palomar Handicap (gr. II) where she finished third, beaten a diminishing three-quarters of a length by Gotta Have Her and Go Forth North.
Go Forth North, a three year old filly facing her elders, has already had some success against older horses. Although she lost her first six races, she has been nearly perfect since then. She broke her maiden on August 7th, charging late to win a maiden special weight by three-quarters of a length. Taking a big step up in class, she was tried against stakes horses in the Sandy Blue Handicap, where she finished in a dead-heat for the victory with Warren's Jitterbug. The final time for the one mile event was 1:34 1/5. Taking an even bigger class hop in the grade II Palormar Handicap, she nearly pulled an 11-1 upset, falling just a neck short of upsetting the very nice mare Gotta Have Her.
Princess Taylor comes into the Yellow Ribbon off of a win in the CTT and Thoroughbred Owners of California Handicap, where she just held off Catsalot to win by a half-length, completing the mile and three eighths in 2:14 4/5. Prior to that race, she ran third against Zenyatta in the grade I Clement L. Hirsch Stakes and finished second in the Beverly Hills Handicap.
Longshots Restless Soul and Sweet and Flawless complete the field.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Lilly Fa Pootz
2 Gypsy's Warning
3 Go Forth North
4 Princess Haya
5 Hibaayeb
6 Turning Top
7 Restless Soul
8 Princess Taylor
9 Sweet and Flawless
It's a tough race to decipher, all right. Restless Soul could run very well here if she gets some pace to run at, and the same goes for Princess Haya. But I'm going to go with Lilly Fa Pootz, who I feel has proven herself capable of winning a race of this caliber and should enjoy the added distance.
NORFOLK (gr. I)
Without a doubt, the Norfolk Stakes is going to have some influence on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The morning line favorite is J. P.'s Gusto, and a win here would likely make him the favorite for the Juvenile. The ridgling has won four of his five starts, culminating with an impressive victory of Jaycito in the Del Mar Futurity. The only question is, can he stretch his speed around two turns?
Acaffella. Second choice on the morning line, the colt began his career by running second in a maiden special weight at Del Mar. Sent north to Golden Gate Fields, he destroyed his competition in the mile and a sixteenth Angle Island Stakes, winning by a ridiculously easy six lengths. Is he good enough to take on Jaycito? Perhaps not, but he has proven himself around two turns.
Jaycito looks like a colt who is crying for distance. The 3-1 third choice here has finished second in both of his starts, but one of those was in the Del Mar Futurity, where he came from last. He will be ridden for the first time tomorrow by Mike Smith, as his regular rider, Martin Garcia, opted to ride Lookin at Lucky in the Indiana Derby instead.
Perhaps the most interesting horse, however, is Boxeur de Rues. The Kentucky-bred is undefeated in one start, but that one start came at Kempton Park in England one month ago. It will be interesting to see how well he does tomorrow.
Riveting Reason, Clearance Clarence, and Lucky Mr. K complete the field. Riveting Reason finished in a dead-heat for third in the Del Mar Futurity, Clearance Clarence comes off of a win in a maiden claiming race, and Lucky Mr. K most recently ran third in the I'm Smokin Stakes.
So here are my picks. . .
1 J. P.'s Gusto
2 Jaycito
3 Acaffella
4 Riveting Reason
5 Boxeur de Rues
6 Lucky Mr. K
7 Clearance Clarence
I'm pretty confident that J. P.'s Gusto can stretch his speed around two turns, and his class should pull him through even if he does have a bit of trouble.
OAK LEAF (gr. I)
Sunday's Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) was won by Blind Luck last year. Although it is unlikely that a filly as good as Blind Luck will emerge from this race this year, it is certainly possible when you have a filly like Tell a Kelly running.
Tell a Kelly is already a grade I winner. She came from last in the Darley Debutante to win going away by four and a half lengths, despite the fact that she trailed by two and a half lengths at the eighth pole and had to catch the brilliant Wickedly Perfect in order to win. She did both, and without much urging. Two turns seems to be exactly what Tell a Kelly wants, and should she emerge from the Oak Leaf Stakes with yet another grade I win, she will likely head to Louisville as the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Her competition on Sunday will be good, but not spectacular. Alienation is coming off of a second place finish to R Heat Lightning in the grade I Spinaway Stakes, but doesn't seem to be the type that wants to go this far. Rigoletta is coming off of a third place finish to Tell a Kelly in the Darley Debutante, and Izshelegal is coming off of a fouth place effort in that same race.
Indian Gracey and Pacific Pride, both trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, could step up and run huge here. The former broke her maiden last time out by a neck, and the latter broke hers by two and a half lengths in her last start.
Finally, there is True Way of Grace, who won the Barretts Debutante last time out at Fairplex Park two weeks ago to secure her first victory. In that race, she closed her final sixteenth in just over six seconds to get up by a half-length.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Tell a Kelly
2 Rigoletta
3 Pacific Pride
4 Izshelegal
5 Alienation
6 True Way of Grace
7 Indian Gracey
I can't wait to see how Tell a Kelly does with a little more distance.
OTHER PICKS
Unfortunately, I can't discuss every great race that is to be run this weekend, so I'll have to make some quick picks for some of the other races.
CLEMENT L. HIRSCH MEMORIAL TURF CHAMPIONSHIP STAKES (gr. I)
1 Champ Pegasus
2 Bourbon Bay
3 Marlang
INDIANA DERBY (gr. II)
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Thiskyhasnolimit
3 Nacho Friend
KELSO HANDICAP (gr. II)
1 Tizway
2 Regal Ransom
3 Cool Coal Man
PILGRIM STAKES (gr. III)
1 Air Support
2 Soldat
3 Powhatan Country
MISS GRILLO STAKES (gr. III)
1 A Brilliant Idea
2 Winter Memories
3 Fancy Point
Of course, that's not all of the grand races. In France on Sunday, there is the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe to be run. Fame and Glory takes on Cape Blanco and others, Goldikova makes her final start before the Breeders' Cup Mile, and lots of other racing action. This is one of the greatest weekends of the year. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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