As it is only three weeks until the Breeders' Cup, racing slows down quite a bit after this Saturday. However, because it is only three weeks until the Breeders' Cup, there are still a few last-minute preps available for those horses that didn't race over the last two weeks.
Four grade I races are scheduled for today, and three of them are at Woodbine. The Canadian International, the E.P. Taylor Stakes, and the Nearctic Stakes are the highlights of the Woodbine card, with each race drawing a large, solid field, with many of the runners coming from Europe. At Keeneland, there is the grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, for three year old fillies. All of the above mentioned races are on turf.
This week’s feature race shall be the Canadian International, a $2,000,000 1-1/2 mile turf event.
FEATURE RACE ---- THE CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL (Can-I)
I won't go into a huge amount of detail here today (after all, post time for the Nearctic Stakes is in about an hour and a half!) but I'll try to cover as much as possible as quickly as possible.
A field of nine has turned out for the 73rd running of this historic race, with the favorite being Redwood, winner of the Northern Dancer Stakes last month. It was his first start in the United States, and his fourth win overall from ten starts. A group III winner in England, the win was a major improvement for the son of High Chaparral. A win here could set the colt up nicely for a start in the Breeders' Cup Turf, should his connections choose to take that route.
Fifty Proof, 10-1 on the morning line, offers excellent value in my opinion. He finished second in the Northern Dancer last time out, beaten only a half-length by Redwood. Amazingly, all eight of his starts have been at Woodbine, where he has won four of his eight starts while finishing second three times. It's entirely possible that he could turn the tables on Redwood this time around.
Chinchon is the second choice on the morning line, and definitely deserves to be. Two starts back, he turned in a monster performance, coming from last to win the grade I United Nations Stakes at Monmouth over Take the Points and Winchester. Returned to France, where he has done the majority of his racing, yielded a last-of-six finish in the grade II Prix Foy, but it was a very good field and there is no reason why he shouldn't rebound today.
Marsh Side, a seven year old son of Gone West, is the third choice on the morning line. He looked great winning the Sky Classic Stakes (Can-II) by five lengths two starts back, but finished an extremely disappointing eighth in the Northern Dancer last time out, beaten ten lengths. If the ground turns up soft today, he will relish it and will have every chance at rebounding.
Al Khali and Simmard, first and third respectively in the Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II), make their first starts since that race. However, I don't believe that either of them are at their best over a mile and a half, and their odds (6-1 and 15-1) reflect this opinion.
Memorial Maniac, the longshot at 20-1, is one horse who has proven to be effective at longer distances, winning the Stars and Stripes (gr. II) over a mile and five eighths two starts back, but he finished fifth at 23-1 in the Northern Dancer.
Mores Wells, yet another shipper from Europe, is 12-1 on the morning line. He comes off of a victory in the group III Stockholm Cup International in Sweden. However, he has shown nowhere near good enough form to win this race.
Finally, we come to my pick. Joshua Tree, a three year old son of Montjeu, has made only five starts, winning two of them. At two, he was the impressive winner of the group II Royal Lodge Stakes, where he defeated future Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York. As a three year old, he has made two starts, finishing third to Rwilding and Midas Touch in the group II Great Voltigeur Stakes and fifth in the group I St. Leger Stakes, beaten less than six lengths by an exceptional group of horses that included Arctic Cosmos, Midas Touch, and Snow Fairy. Based on the fine company he has been keeping, I do believe that he should relish the conditions here today and could become the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Turf if he runs there next month.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Joshua Tree
2 Redwood
3 Chinchon
4 Fifty Proof
5 Marsh Side
6 Simmard
7 Al Khali
8 Memorial Maniac
9 Mores Wells
OTHER PICKS
E.P. TAYLOR STAKES (Can-I)
It’s a rather difficult race to decipher, but the morning line favorite, Shalanaya, looks pretty good. She has been up against some very good competition and has beaten Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Midday in the past.
One horse I really like is Lahaleeb, winner of this race last year. She will be running on Lasix for the first time, but has not hit the board in her five starts since last year’s E.P. Taylor.
Miss Keller should be right there in the stretch, based on her recent form. In her last start, the Canadian Stakes, she turned in a sharp performance to win by a length and three quarters. She loves this course and I would not be surprised to see her late kick carry her to victory.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Shalanaya
2 Miss Keller
3 Lahaleeb
NEARCTIC STAKES (Can-I)
The field is large (not to mention good!), and is even harder to decipher than the E.P. Taylor. However, I was able to come up with my pick fairly quickly.
I’m going to go with the three year old Bridgetown. He has made two starts this year, winning both of them. The first was the 5-1/2 furlongs Latham Stakes at Saratoga, where he held off the late-charging Flamin’ Hot for a one length victory.
His second start came in the Gilded Time Stakes at about 5-1/2 furlongs, where he easily defeated Partyallnightlong by two and a half lengths. This will be his first start against older horses, but I believe that he can handle them.
Here are my top three picks. . .
1 Bridgetown
2 Towzee
3 Fatal Bullet
QUEEN ELIZABETH II CHALLENGE CUP STAKES (gr. I)
The morning line favorite is Evening Jewel, but I do believe that she can be beaten. The most obvious choice to beat her is second choice Check the Label, but the horse I like is Harmonious. She is a grade I winner, having won the American Oaks earlier this year, and just failed to catch Evening Jewel after a nightmare trip in the nine furlong Del Mar Oaks. With a little better trip today, she should prove more than capable of upending Evening Jewel.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Harmonious
2 Evening Jewel
3 Check the Label
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment