Sure, it's only October, and the Breeders' Cup hasn't even been run yet, but I thought it would be fun to get a very (very!) early start on next year's Triple Crown Countdown. Therefore, I have compiled my top ten picks for next year's classics.
Of course, the chance of these ten horses all making it to the Kentucky Derby is remote, but it's always fun to compile a nice top ten list. Plus, after the 2011 classics have been run, it will be fun to go back and see where I had the winners ranked, if at all.
So here I go. . .
1. TO HONOR AND SERVE ---- Bernardini – Pilfer, by Deputy Minister. Trained by Bill Mott.
Out of all the horses on this list, this is the one that I am most excited about. He broke his maiden last time out by nearly nine lengths going a mile and a sixteenth on a sloppy track at Belmont, stopping the clock in 1:43.34 under a hand ride. The runner up came back to win a Maiden Special Weight at Monmouth Park, making To Honor and Serve a very exciting juvenile. The Nashua Stakes is next.
2. JAYCITO ---- Victory Gallop – Night Edition, by Ascot Knight. Trained by Mike Mitchell.
I was really impressed with his remarkable win in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) despite everything he had to overcome. He ran down a nice horse in J P's Gusto and Mike Smith is very high on him. Plus, he's bred to get a mile and a quarter.
3. UNCLE MO ---- Indian Charlie – Playa Maya, by Arch. Trained by Todd Pletcher.
His 1:34 2/5 clocking in the Champagne is perhaps the most impressive performance by a juvenile this year; but being by Indian Charlie—whose progeny have always had a bit of a distance limitation—worries me. But to set the fractions he set in the Champagne and still come home in :24 seconds is astonishing.
4. BOYS AT TOSCONOVA ---- Officer – Little Bonnet, by Coronado’s Quest. Trained by Rick Dutrow.
Boys at Tosconova got his career off to an excellent start when he finished second in the grade III Kentucky Juvenile Stakes back in April. However, he has become even better since then, winning the Hopeful (gr. I) in a hand ride most recently. However, like Uncle Mo, his pedigree is questionable for Classic distances.
5. CURLINELLO ---- Smart Strike – Colonella, by Pleasant Colony. Trained by Todd Pletcher.
Although he has yet to win a stakes race, he has been running very well at Monmouth Park and seems to have the same, slow grind which enabled Drosselmeyer to win the Belmont Stakes earlier this year. He is definitely one to watch.
6. STAY THIRSTY ---- Bernardini – Marozia, by Storm Bird. Trained by Todd Pletcher.
Like Curlinello, Stay Thirsty has only a maiden win to his credit, but unlike Curlinello, this colt is grade I stakes placed. Last time out, the promising son of Bernardini finished second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful Stakes. He seems like a colt who should relish additional distance and two turns.
7. J P'S GUSTO ---- Successful Appeal – Call Her Magic, by Caller I.D.. Trained by David Hofmans.
This fine juvenile had a stranglehold on the California two-year old division all summer long, but relented that position to Jaycito when he lost the Norfolk Stakes last time out. His pedigree does not scream classic distances and he had no excuse in the Norfolk except that he ran out of gas.
8. BUG JUICE ---- Mingun – Twilight Empress, by Twilight Agenda. Trained by Bruce Levine
Bug Juice has a lot of questions to answer, but he’s done everything right so far. Although he has yet to race beyond six furlongs, his two stakes victories have been very impressive. He won the Aspirant Stakes by seven lengths and the New York Breeders’ Futurity by ten. His victories have been coming at Finger Lakes, but he looks like a legitimately speedy colt.
9. BANDBOX ---- Tapit – Empty the Bases, by Grand Slam. Trained by Rodney Jenkins.
Undefeated in three starts, the New York-bred Bandbox won the Sleepy Hollow Stakes last time out, overcoming a poor break to win by a length and a quarter.
10. ROGUE ROMANCE ---- Smarty Jones – Lovington, by Afleet. Trained by Kenny McPeek.
Although he has yet to race on dirt, Rogue Romance turned in a dominating effort last time out, winning the Bourbon Stakes (gr. IIIT) by two and a half lengths in a last-to-first run. He ran his final sixteenth in about 5 2/5 seconds, and he has a pedigree that can take him places.
-Keelerman
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