It's now just four weeks until the Breeders' Cup. This weekend is the last major weekend of prep races. At Oak Tree, there is the grade I Ancient Title Breeders' Cup Stakes, and the grade II Oak Tree Mile. At Belmont Park, there is the Jamaica Handicap (gr. I), Frizette Stakes (gr. I), and Champagne Stakes (gr. I). At Keeneland, there is the Woodford Stakes (gr. III), Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (gr. I), Abu Dhabi First Lady Stakes (gr. I), and the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II). It wasn't easy picking from all these great races, but this week's Feature Race is the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes.
FEATURE RACE: SHADWELL TURF MILE STAKES (gr. I)
One Mile on the Turf at Keeneland
One of two major preps for the Breeders' Cup Mile being run this weekend, the Shadwell Turf Mile has drawn a small but brilliant field of six, led by the 7-5 morning line favorite Gio Ponti. But the favorite may be vulnerable in this spot, and there are plenty of good horses that have the ability to beat him.
#1: GET STORMY (3-1)
The co-second choice on the morning line, Get Stormy has found his niche as a versatile turf miler. He hasn't run a bad race since June 2009 and has turned into a monster this year.
In his last start, the Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II), the four year old son of Stormy Atlantic sat just off the early pace and showed a very strong turn of foot, blowing past the leader to win the nine furlong turf event by two and three quarter lengths, stopping the clock in 1:46 3/5.
As if that isn't good enough, two starts back he stumbled at the start of the Fourstardave Handicap (gr. II) but still went right to the front. He ended up winning by a length and a quarter. His final time for the mile and a sixteenth was a phenomenal 1:39 flat.
His only bad effort this year was in the King Edward Stakes (gr. II) at Woodbine back in June, when he ran fourth, beaten eight lengths. He obviously wasn't himself that day, although I'm not sure what happened.
He will carry 126 pounds today, the same as all of the other runners. He will be ridden by Javier Castellano, who is, in my opinion, one of the best jockeys in the country. One question remains --- is Get Stormy good enough to beat Gio Ponti?
I think that with the right conditions, yes.
He is trained by Thomas Bush.
#2: ACTING ZIPPY (20-1)
The morning line longshot, Acting Zippy has been a bit inconsistent. He has made six starts this year, beginning with an allowance win and a neck victory in the John B. Connally Handicap (gr. III). His luck turned sour after that, with three consecutive terrible finishes, being beaten a total of 55 1/4 lengths. In the Charles Town Classic he ran sixth, beaten nearly twenty lengths, and was given a break.
Returned to the races ten days ago, he came through with a win in a 5-1/2 furlong optional claiming event at Hoosier Park. It is unlikely that he is completely ready for this race, let alone ready to take on the likes of Gio Ponti, but he has back class and could pull through to earn a large piece of the purse. He will be ridden by E. Martin Jr. and is trained by William Bennett.
#3: COURAGEOUS CAT (3-1)
Of all the horses in this race, Courageous Cat is the most interesting. He has not raced since finishing a dismal ninth in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-I) back in March, but he had shown excellent form prior to that. In his prep for the Dubai race, the one mile Canadian Turf Stakes (gr. III) he sat just off of the early pace. The first quarter mile was run in :23 1/5. The half was run in :45 4/5. At this point, Courageous Cat was a length and a half off of the lead. Following three quarters of a mile in 1:08 2/5, Courageous Cat then made his bid for the lead. He won the race by a head, stopping the clock in a ridiculous 1:31 2/5. Despite this, his win in the Canadian Turf is overshadowed by his game second in the Breeders' Cup Mile last year to Goldikova, where he took the lead in the stretch, only to lose by a half-length.
Those two efforts show what a good horse Courageous Cat is, and that he is more than capable of defeating Gio Ponti. The only concern is that he has not raced since March. He may not be completely ready for a race of this caliber. But ready or not, he deserves a shot at earning his spot in the Breeders' Cup Mile.
He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela and is trained by Bill Mott.
#4: GIO PONTI (7-5)
The overwhelming morning line favorite, Gio Ponti has turned in some tremendous efforts over the past year, but just keeps being beaten by small margins. This streak of bad luck began last October, when he ran second in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (gr. I) after taking the lead at the eighth pole. Two things beat him that day, the bog-like soft turf course and the mile and a half distance.
Another second place finish followed, in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Once again, Gio Ponti took the lead, but lost it to Zenyatta in the final strides. Given a bit of a rest, the dual champion returned in the Tampa Bay Stakes, where he finished second yet again, just failing to catch Karelian on the wire.
Then came a trip to Dubai, where he ran fourth, beaten only a lengths and a half after chasing a very slow pace. Returned to the United States, he took the lead for a brief moment in the stretch of the Manhattan Handicap (gr. I) but lost it to his stablemate Winchester, being beaten by a half-length.
Then came his only win of 2010, a hard fought neck victory in the Man o' War (gr. I). Last early through fractions of :52 1/5 and 1:18 flat, Gio Ponti had three lengths to make up on longshot Mission Approved in the final eighth of a mile. Amazingly, he pulled it off, closing his final quarter mile in less than 22 seconds to grab the victory.
A month later, it looked like Gio Ponti was going to score a repeat victory in the Arlington Million Stakes (gr. I) when he took the lead in the stretch, but previously unheralded European invader Debussy proved too good, rallying furiously along the rail to score a half-length upset victory.
This brings Gio Ponti to today's race. He has not raced in a one mile event since March 2009, when he beat Ventura by a nose in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap (gr. I). He should be flying late tomorrow, but if he can catch Courageous Cat and Get Stormy remains to be seen.
He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and is trained by Christopher Clement.
#5: SOCIETY'S CHAIRMAN (12-1)
A win here, a few losses there. That is the story of Society’s Chairman. It's not that he is a bad horse. On the contrary, he is a very good horse. He has amassed earnings of $533,033 and finished third in the grade I Makers Mark Mile earlier this year.
His last two races have been less than top class, however. In the small, restricted Halton Stakes, he took the lead in the stretch, only to be beaten by a half-length. Prior to that, he ran fifth, beaten over eight lengths, in the King Edward Stakes (gr. II). If he runs back to the form he showed in the Makers Mark, he'll be right in contention in the stretch. But under the circumstances, he doesn't appear to be good enough.
He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and is trained by Roger Attfield.
#6: ENRICHED (7-2)
Enriched has shown potential for a while now, but has had a bit of trouble showing it off. Known by many as "Lava Man's half-brother", Enriched will be making his tenth start of the year tomorrow. He began 2010 with some less than stellar performances in some state-restricted stakes races, the came through with a win in an allowance optional claiming event. Shipped to Churchill Downs and tried on dirt in the Alysheba Stakes, he ran a solid third. However, it was his next start that showed what a nice horse Enriched can be.
Sent off as the favorite in a one mile turf allowance race, Enriched sat just off the earlier pace and drew off impressively through the stretch to win by over nine lengths, stopping the clock in 1:33 1/5. A third place finish in the grade I Eddie Read Stakes followed, then a third in the grade II San Diego Handicap over Del Mar's synthetic track a week later. In his final start prior to tomorrow's race, he won the Del Mar Mile Handicap (gr. II) by three quarters of a length. If he runs his best race tomorrow, he'll be right there at the finish.
So, who are my picks? Well, it was a very difficult race to handicap. I don't believe that Gio Ponti will rally fast enough to win, but if this is the case, who will beat him?
My pick, after a lot of thought, is Get Stormy. His last two races have been very, very good. I think that he will get the jump on Gio Ponti turning for home and hold too large an advantage at the eighth pole for Gio Ponti to catch him.
Here are my fill picks. . .
1 Get Stormy
2 Gio Ponti
3 Courageous Cat
4 Enriched
5 Society's Chairman
6 Acting Zippy
It should be a good race, and the American favorite for the Breeders' Cup Mile will likely come out of this race.
OTHER PICKS
ANCIENT TITLE BREEDERS' CUP STAKES (gr. I)
A six furlong prep race for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, the grade I Ancient Title Stakes has drawn a very nice field of eight, led by grade I winners Cost of Freedom, E Z's Gentleman, Dancing in Silks, and Smiling Tiger. Dancing in Silks won the Breeders' Cup Sprint last year in a 25-1 upset, but has shown very little since then. In his most recent start, the state-restricted Pirates Bounty Stakes, he returned off of a six month layoff to finish a late running fourth in a race with very little pace. Obviously, if he gets a little more to run at today, he'll be flying late. But the question is, will he get that pace?
Several of the other runners here have shown early speed, including Smiling Tiger, but I don't see an all-out speed dual occurring here. That's why I'm going with Cost of Freedom. The seven year old gelding's biggest win came in the 2008 Ancient Title Stakes, but perhaps his best performance came in last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he finished third, beaten a head for all the money. He has made four starts this year, winning an optional claiming event and the grade III Los Angeles Handicap. He got off to a poor beginning in the Bing Crosby Stakes and was unable to get to the lead, which is why he ran fifth of sixth. Tried on turf in the Green Flash Handicap, he raced second most of the way but ended up finishing fourth. However, he was beaten only a half-length, and Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner California Flag is the horse that won the race, so it was by no means a poor performance.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Cost of Freedom
2 Smiling Tiger
3 E Z's Gentleman
4 Dancing in Silks
5 Supreme Summit
6 Gato Go Win
7 Truest Legend
8 New Bay
One or two Breeders' Cup Sprint contenders should emerge from this race. It would be great to see Dancing in Silks pull off a win, but I can't see it happening.
OAK TREE MILE (gr. II)
With Sidney's Candy scratched, the race lost much of its luster, as well as the morning line favorite. One horse I like is Victor's Cry. I think that his poor performance in the Woodbine Mile was because he sat too close to the early pace, leaving the confirmed closer empty when the field turned for home. If he runs like he did when he won the Shoemaker Mile (gr. I) earlier this year, he should win this race with no trouble.
Blue Chagall is another horse I like. Although disappointing in his last race, the Del Mar Mile (gr. II), he was closing in late there and has back class. His win in the Wickerr Stakes two starts back was very nice. However, he has yet to run a really nice race on the Hollywood Park turf course, which is concerning.
Tropic Storm is another obvious contender, based on his sharp win in the Windy Sands Handicap last time out. However, that race was on the synthetic main track at Del Mar, and I'm not sure if he is as good on turf. But he certainly has a shot.
If the pace is quick, which seems unlikely, expect to see Meteore coming late. He hasn't won in over a year, but he has shown a nice turn of foot from time to time.
But perhaps the most interesting runner in the race is Colgan's Chip. Last time out, in a one mile optional claiming event, he took the field wire-to-wire while rattling off fractions of :22 flat, :45 2/5, and 1:09 flat on his way to a 1:33 flat mile. If he should get a loose lead, he will be very hard to catch.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Colgan's Chip
2 Victor's Cry
3 Tropic Storm
4 Blue Chagall
5 Meteore
6 Liberian Freighter
It's worth a shot!
ABU DHABI FIRST LADY STAKES (gr. I)
Wasted Tears, Proviso, or Gotta Have Her? This race will likely come down to the three favorites.
It's hard not to like Proviso. After all, the five year old mare has won three consecutive grade I races, including the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap against males. Going a mile on turf is what she does best, and this race is practically designed for her.
On the other hand, it's hard not to like Wasted Tears. She has won eleven of her sixteen races, and has not lost a race on turf since March 15th. . . 2008. She has proven versatile, capable, and game. If you're going to beat her, you're going to have to run as fast as you possibly can.
Gotta Have Her is the third choice on the morning line. She has had a long, illustrious career, a career which is coming to a conclusion at the end of this year. Despite her excellent credentials (she has won more than her share of stakes races) she has never won a grade I race. Not ever. She finished second once, but has never seen her name marked in history as a winner of one of the most elite races in the world. A win here would forever secure her name in history, as well as enhance her resume when she becomes a broodmare. However, one mile is, perhaps, just a little bit beyond her very best distance.
Grade II stakes winner Dynaslew should be in with a chance too. The impressive winner of the Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) earlier this year, she comes off of a very sharp victory (albeit in surprise fashion) in the grade II Ballston Spa Stakes. She should be right in the mix tomorrow.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Proviso
2 Wasted Tears
3 Gotta Have Her
4 Dynaslew
5 C. S. Silk
6 Fantasia
7 Kiss Mine
8 Cure for Sale
9 West Hope
As much as I like Wasted Tears, I think that Proviso is slightly better. I'm looking forward to this race a lot, hoping that Proviso will stamp her ticket to the Breeders' Cup Mile next month. Who knows? If she wins here, Proviso could be America's best hope in the Mile!
QUICK PICKS
JAMAICA HANDICAP (gr. I)
1 Krypton
2 Two Notch Road
3 Lethal Combination
FRIZETTE STAKES (gr. I)
1 A Z Warrior
2 R Heat Lightning
3 Valiant Passion
CHAMPAGNE STAKES (gr. I)
1 Uncle Mo
2 Brother in Arms
3 Meridian Magic
WOODFORD STAKES (gr. III)
1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 California Flag
3 Silver Timber
DIXIANA BREEDERS' FUTURITY (gr. I)
1 Major Gain
2 Santiva
3 J. B.'s Thunder
THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA STAKES (gr. II)
1 Dubai Majesty
2 Informed Decision
3 Champagne d’Oro
-Keelerman
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