Thursday, December 16, 2010

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- December 14th, 2010

RECAP OF LAST WEEK'S RACES

Hollywood Starlet Stakes

Last week, we saw a superstar in the making.

Turbulent Descent, ridden by David Flores, took the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I) in superstar fashion. No, she didn't win by double-digit lengths. No, her final time was nothing out of the ordinary.

It was the way that she won the race that mattered.

Sent off at 1.10-1, Turbulent Descent came into the Starlet undefeated; a perfect 2-for-2. An easy victory in the Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood Park made her the favorite for this year end test. She had never gone around two turns before, but there was very little doubt that she could do so.

David Flores rode her like she was a champion. He saved ground early before taking her three wide around the far turn. When he asked her for her run, the race was over. Under a hand ride, she easily took the lead from Nina Fever and May Day Rose, leaving those two rivals in her dust and easily turning back late runs from Big Tiz and Tell a Kelly. She closed her final sixteenth in 6.74 seconds, completing the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.18.

There was something about her performance that cannot be described with words. You had to see it to understand it. There seemed to be another layer to this filly; a layer of pure, untapped talent. It is a bit too early to tell, but I came away from the race feeling as though I had just watched Zenyatta's successor win the first of many grade I races. Time will tell if she can run like Zenyatta could, but don't underestimate this brilliant juvenile. I expect that we will be hearing a lot more about her in the coming months. Her next start will likely be in the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) in February at Santa Anita Park, where she will try dirt for the first time. If she can handle dirt as well as synthetics, she could become the favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Oaks.

As for the rest of the runners, Big Tiz, sent off at 37-1, was never too far off the pace and finished a strong second while never really challenging the winner. Tell a Kelly, sent off as the second choice under Joel Rosario, rallied from last to finish third. May Day Rose, second for much of the race, held on until the eighth pole before being swallowed up to finish fourth. Trained by Bob Baffert, her performance was actually very good and I will be watching her closely.

Zazu, second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes, failed to rally in the stretch and ended up fifth, beaten five lengths. True Way of Grace, reserved in sixth early, saved ground and didn't rally. Nina Fever set a testing pace of :23 2/5, :47 flat, and 1:12 flat before folding to finish seventh. Luna Grande ran last, never reaching contention at any point in the race.

Just a side note that means absolutely nothing, but four horses ran with blinkers on in the Starlet Stakes and ran 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th. Hmm. . . :)

The final results were as follows. . .

1 Turbulent Descent
2 Big Tiz
3 Tell a Kelly
4 May Day Rose
5 Zazu
6 True Way of Grace
7 Nina Fever
8 Victor Espinoza

Here were my picks. . .

1 Turbulent Descent
2 Nina Fever
3 Tell a Kelly
4 Zazu
5 May Day Rose
6 Big Tiz
7 Luna Grande
8 True Was of Grace

Turbulent Descent's pedigree is worth a lengthy discussion as well. Her sire is Congrats, winner of the grade II San Pasqual Handicap at five years of age. Although his best distance was likely a mile and a sixteenth (both of his stakes victories came at that distance) he did prove classy enough to finish second in the Santa Anita Handicap to Rock Hard Ten and third in the Hollywood Gold Cup to Lava Man and Borrego. No one can claim that he didn't keep good company!

Congrats' pedigree is also fascinating. His third dam, Glowing Tribute, was the dam of Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero, United Nations Handicap winner Hero's Honor, Diana Handicap winner Glowing Honor, and Mackie, winner of the Busher Stakes (gr. III) and dam ofg Seeing the Best, a group III winner in Japan, as well as Mr. Mellon, winner of the Arlington Classic Stakes (gr. II). From eleven foals, Glowing Tribute was the dam of seven stakes winners and was Broodmare of the Year in 1993.

Congrats’ sire line has done very well in the Triple Crown. By A.P. Indy, Congrats traces back to the great sire Bold Ruler, who, along with his sons and grandsons, accounted for seven of the ten Kentucky Derby winners in the 1970s. Congrats’ grandsire, Seattle Slew, sired many spectacular champions, including Swale, winner of the 1984 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

The dam of Turbulent Descent is Roger's Sue. Born in 2001, Roger's Sue never made it to the races but has had three foals thus far. All three have won races, but Turbulent Descent is her first black type runner. Roger's Sue is by Forestry, a grade I winning sprinter who has sired thirty-five stakes winners from his first seven crops, including grade I winners Discreet Cat, Diplomat Lady, and Forest Danger. He is a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Cash Run who also claimed victories in the Bonnie Miss Stakes (gr. II) and Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Forestry's dam, Shared Interest, was a grade I winner herself, with victories in the Ruffian Handicap (gr. I) and First Flight Handicap (gr. II) her biggest scores. However, her dam, Fabulous, made only one start and did not win, earning $300. Her best foal to date has been Bonay, a filly who never won a stakes races but ran third in both the Comely Stakes (gr. III) and Tempted Stakes (gr. III).

What do you think of Turbulent Descent's pedigree? Could it possibly carry her a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May? If you have an opinion, feel free to comment below!

OTHER RACE RECAPS

If you managed to hit the superfecta in the Springboard Mile Stakes. . . well, let's just say that you probably didn't even come close.

Whenever a heavy favorite fails to win, you can expect large payoffs. When the favorite runs seventh and the top four finishers are all 10-1 or higher, you can expect astronomical payoffs.

This happened on Saturday at Remington Park in the $250,000 Springboard Mile Stakes. For two-year-olds, the odds-one favorite was Caleb's Posse. The second choice was Twinspired at 4-1; the third choice was Chipshot at 7-1.

None of them hit the board.

The early pace was set by Brickyard Fast, a 54-1 shot who dueled with Aces N Kings (10-1) through very good fractions of :23 1/5, :47 flat, and 1:11 4/5. Grant Jack (14-1) sat directly behind them in third. Caleb's Posse was getting a perfect trip in fourth, just off of the solid pace. Surely Caleb's Posse could pass those three leaders at any time he wanted. After all, everyone knows that 54-1 shots don't dual with 10-1 shots through a :23 1/5 opening quarter and hang around for the finish, right?

Wrong!

As Caleb's Poose dropped out of contention in the stretch, it was Brickyard Fast and Aces N Kings who battled each other through the stretch. However, Grant Jack proved too much for both of them, passing them just past the eighth pole to win by a length. Amazingly, Brickyard Fast held second, with Aces N Kings a clear third. Trubs, a 16-1 shot who has raced in fifth for a good portion of the race, rallied for fourth, completing a superfecta of which a $2 bet returned $104,293.20.

Chipshot did best among the favorites, finishing a distant fifth. Caleb's Posse ended up seventh, beaten nearly twelve lengths. He did defeated Twinspired by a nose, however.

The final time over the fast main track was 1:37 4/5.

In the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields, the favorite was Luckarack. However, just like Caleb's Posse, he ran a non-threatening seventh. It was Positive Response who proved best, going straight to the lead and never looking back. He dominated the Gold Rush Stakes by an impressive six lengths. Although he wasn't pressured on the lead (he got away with fractions of :24 3/5 and :49 3/5) he did close his last two eighths in under twelve seconds for an impressive :23 4/5 final quarter mile. Grand Maneuver, sent off as the 6-1 fifth choice, ran second although he was no match for the winner. He was a neck in front of King Cola at the wire.

Interestingly, Eddie Coddana finished last after attempting to chase the pace set by Positive Response. Did a problem arise during the running of the race, or was it merely impossible to stay with Positive Response on the lead? I'm leaning toward the former, but if it was indeed the latter then Positive Response could be a better horse than we imagine.

I will be back with a Top Twenty within the day.

-Keelerman

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