Saturday, December 18, 2010

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- December 17th, 2010

Whenever ten stakes-caliber two-year-olds meet in the same race, it is worth watching. When ten stakes-caliber two-year-olds meet in a grade I race, vying for a piece of the $750,000 purse, it is a do-not-miss-for-anything.

The 30th running of the CashCall Futurity has drawn a field of ten stakes-caliber two-year-olds, and it should have a major impact on the 2011 Triple Crown Trail. That's why it is this week's feature race.

FEATURE RACE ---- CashCall Futurity (gr. I)

$750,000 purse. For two-year olds. 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

Drawing the rail in this year's futurity is Ronin Dax, a lightly raced son of Tapit. He began his career by winning a one mile turf maiden special weight at Del Mar, rallying five wide to score by a comfortable length and a quarter. However, his second start yielded a disappointing fifth, beaten eight lengths, in the grade III Summer Stakes at Woodbine. His most recent start came on dirt in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on October 31st, where he ran fifth once again, beaten nearly fifteen lengths by Astrology. He appears to be outclassed here, although he has recorded some decent workouts. He will carry 121 pounds, the same as all of the other entries, and will be racing with blinkers off. He is trained by Robert Troeger and will be ridden by Mike Smith.

The number two horse is J P's Gusto. A ridgling son of Successful Appeal, he was the unstoppable leader of the California-based two-year-olds earlier this year, but disappointing efforts going two-turns in the Norfolk Stakes and Breeders' Cup Juvenile have left many doubting how far he can run. He gets another chance to prove himself at longer distances here. His trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was rather rough, so I would not be surprised if he redeems himself here. He is trained by David Hofmans and will be ridden by Joe Talamo.

This brings us to Rustler Hustler. The son of Ecton Park has never finished worse than third in five starts and has won two stakes races. Trained by Rick Dutrow, he broke his maiden second time out going five furlongs at Presque Isle Downs before running second in an allowance race. Sent off at 14-1 in the Continental Mile at Monmouth Park, he charged late to win by a neck, completing the mile on turf in 1:35 1/5. In his most recent start, the Gnome’s Gold Stakes at Belmont Park on the last day of October, he won the mile and a sixteenth event by nearly two lengths with a rapid late run. Seeing that he broke his maiden on a synthetic track, I will be expecting a dramatic late charge from this colt, who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.

Number four in the gate will be Slammer Time. He broke his maiden on the third attempt going a mile on turf with a desperate late lunge, then graduated into stakes company to win the Bob Benoit California Cup Juvenile Stakes on October 30th. However, he is stepping way up in class here and may be in over his head. The son of Grand Slam is trained by Gary Mandella and will be ridden by David Flores.

High Level Jeff, the number five horse, looked like a star in the making when he broke his maiden by eight lengths at Calder Race Course going 5-1/2 furlongs in a sharp time. The son of Vindication looked brighter still when he won an allowance race going six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 over a sloppy Calder main track. However, when he shipped to Hollywood Park to run in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes, the star apparently burned out, as he ran fifth of six as the heavy favorite. Still, it was his first start on a synthetic track and he may run better second time out. He is trained by Doug O'Neill and will be ridden by Joel Rosario.

Then there is Clubhouse Rise, the number six horse. The son of Candy Ride will be making his tenth start in a career which has seen him improve with nearly every start. He began his career by running sixth, and then third, in a pair of maiden special weights. Entered in the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes at Hollywood Park, he ran a distant sixth to J P's Gusto. Returned to the maiden ranks, he ran second and fifth at Hollywood and Del Mar before finally breaking through with a half-length victory going six furlongs at Del Mar. He has been running great since then, winning the Barretts Juvenile Stakes by over two lengths and finishing third in both the Jack Goodman Stakes and the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot. Considering that he has raced over this track five times I'm sure that he will handle it just fine. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenquela and is trained by Craig Lewis.

This brings us to Gourmet Dinner. Trained by Steve Standbridge, the son of Trippi has won four of his five starts, his only loss being by a length and a half in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes. Last time out, he dominated in the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot Stakes, rallying strongly at 20-1 to score by over two lengths. However, this will be his first start on a synthetic track and I do wonder how he is going to take to it. He will be ridden by Sebastian Madrid.

Riveting Reason is the number eight horse. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as a maiden, setting the pace for six furlongs before ending up eighth. However, he came right back to score in a maiden special weight by nearly three lengths. He finished a close up third to Jaycito and J P's Gusto in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and may be underbet here. He is trained by Myung Cho and will be ridden by Alonso Quinonez.

The number nine horse is Industry Leader. The son of Cherokee Run broke his maiden at the Oak Tree meet by 2 1/4 lengths, but in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes could not catch Premier Pegasus, finishing a length and a half behind that one in second. However, I would not be surprised if he improves in his third start and may be good enough to hit the board. He is trained by Kristin Mulhall and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.

Finally, we come to Comma to the Top. The son of Bwana Charlie has won four consecutive races, including the Real Quiet Stakes by over six lengths and the Generous Stakes (gr. III) by nearly two. Considering how well he ran in the Real Quiet Stakes at this same track and distance, I expect him to run huge tomorrow. He is trained by Peter Miller and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.

Here are my picks. . .

1 Comma to the Top

2 J P's Gusto

3 Industry Leader

4 Clubhouse Ride

5 Gourmet Dinner

6 Riveting Reasons

7 Rustler Hustler

8 Slammer Time

9 High Level Jeff

10 Ronin Dax

As much as I like Gourmet Dinner, I worried that he won't be able to take to a synthetic track as well as he has taken to dirt. I do believe that Comma to the Top is a star in the making, and that he is capable of doing great things. J P's Gusto is a classy colt, but I don't think that he is capable of running this far effectively.

OTHER RACES OF NOTE

The CashCall Futurity is the only graded stakes race for two year olds this weekend, but there are a couple of interesting ungraded juvenile stakes races scheduled. They are the $60,000 Sugar Bowl Stakes and the $60,000 Letellier Memorial Stakes, the latter being restricted to fillies and both being at Fair Grounds.

The Sugar Bowl Stakes drew a field of seven, but three scratches have left the race with only four runners. The morning line favorite at 7-2 is Joe Hollywood. The son of Congrats has made two starts thus far, both in maiden special weight races. He ran third in the first one at Keeneland before winning a six furlong event at Fair Grounds by a length and a quarter in 1:11 flat.

The second choice at 7-2 is Archarcharch, who is a son of, guess who, Arch. He ran second in his only start, a maiden special weight, but it was a strong effort and I really like his chances here.

Hydro Power and B G Suavecito complete the field. Hydro Power won a maiden special weight second time but was very disappointing in the Sun Power Stakes. B G Suavecito won a maiden special weight and an allowance race before finishing a dismal eighth in the El Jovan Stakes at Retama Park.

The Letellier Memorial Stakes has drawn a fine field of six fillies. The morning line favorite is Fastation at 9-5. She has made seven starts, winning four of them and never finishing worse than second. Last time out, she won the Permian Basin Stakes by a half-length as the odds-on favorite. It was her fourth consecutive stakes victory, making her the deserving favorite here.

The second choice at 2-1 is Unbridled Praise. She won the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park, but was a disappointing fourth in the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity. I can’t seeing her beating Fastation here, but perhaps I have overlooked something.

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

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