TRAVERS STAKES THOUGHTS & PICKS

The 2011 edition of the Travers Stakes is being billed as the battle for the three-year-old male championship – just as the Haskell Stakes (gr.I) was four weeks ago. As we all recall, the Haskell was supposed to determine whether Preakness winner Shackleford or Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice was the superior three-year-old colt. In the end, Coil ran past them both to win by a neck and further muddle a division that has been wide-open all year long.

Hopefully, the Travers will go further in determining who the year-end champion should be. There are four horses in this race that could stamp themselves as leader of the division with a victory – Coil, Shackleford, Ruler On Ice, and Stay Thirsty. The latter finished a close second in the Belmont and returned to win the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) in impressive fashion. Should one of these colts win, they would not only lead the three-year-old division but would have at least a decent shot at taking Horse of the Year.

If any of the other colts win? Well, then the division stays in shambles.

The morning line favorite is Stay Thirsty, a well-bred son of Bernardini who can definitely get the mile and a quarter distance of the Travers. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the colt claims by far the highest last-out Beyer Speed figure in the races, but the question is: will he repeat it? He did get a pretty much dream trip in the Jim Dandy, but turned in a :23.41 third quarter to get himself into contention and stayed on very well from there to win by four lengths. He has two wins and a second from three starts at Saratoga, so we know he likes the track. Top rider Javier Castellano will be aboard, and from gate nine Stay Thirsty should be able to work out a good mid-pack trip.

Coil has been pretty consistent during his career, never failing to hit the board, and has won four of his last five starts. Up until the Haskell, he was known as a headstrong front runner/pace presser. However, when he bumped into the gate at the start of Haskell and ended up last early on, it didn’t matter. He just adjusted his style, relaxed, and came on to defeat Shackleford by a neck. He will likely have no trouble with this distance and turned in a bullet work in preparation for this, so he will definitely be right there in the stretch this afternoon.

Shackleford and Ruler On Ice each won a Triple Crown race as mentioned above, but can they win the Travers? Shackleford has had a long, hard campaign this year and I can’t help but think that he might be just a bit past his prime right now. In addition, the ten furlong distance of the Travers is probably just a tad bit too long for him. Granted, he has a lot of early speed and will probably be up front early on, but I think that he will be caught in the stretch while tiring to finish late.

As for Ruler On Ice, he is better the farther he runs, so he will have no trouble with this distance. He was beaten by just over two lengths in the Haskell while third, but his best race came over a sloppy track in the Belmont Stakes. Obviously, he will be a tough contender, but he still hasn’t proven that his Belmont win wasn’t just a fluke in the slop. On the other hand, he’s been racing very consistently and a win would not surprise me.

Best of the rest? I think that J W Blue has a good chance at hitting the board at a huge price. He has been running well in non-graded stakes races, most recently finishing a close second in the Barbaro Stakes, but is taking a huge step up in class. However, he has a potent late kick, should relish the distance, and his trainer Anthony Dutrow is not one to enter horses unless he believes they will run well. I think that he can hit the board without a doubt.

Rattlesnake Bridge won the Long Branch Stakes, but still has a lot to prove and is stepping way up in class. Raison d’Etat was second in the Curlin Stakes and likewise will be making his graded stakes debut. Malibu Glow’s two stakes attempts were less-than-stellar, but he won an allowance race here at Saratoga last time out. Moonshine Mullin was second to Stay Thirsty in the Jim Dandy after a win in the Victoria Stakes in Canada. Bowman’s Causeway was second in the Prince of Wales Stakes in Canada, but was no match for the likes of Dialed In, Shackleford, and Soldat in Florida this spring.

I really don’t love any of the big four in this spot – I feel that all still have some questions to answer – so I’ll go out on a limb and pick J W Blue. I have the feeling that he is sitting on a huge race and will not embarrass himself.

So my top four selections are:

1 J W Blue

2 Coil

3 Stay Thirsty

4 Ruler On Ice

This race shall also mark the first of the new “Breeders’ Cup Handicapping Contest” between J.R. and I, in similar style to the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest we contested during the spring. Here are J.R.’s Travers picks:

1 Rattlesnake Bridge

2 Stay Thirsty

3 Raison d’Etat

4 Ruler On Ice

Also, here are our picks for the other major weekend races:

King’s Bishop

Keelerman

1 Caleb’s Posse

2 Uncle Mo

3 Flashpoint

4 Dominus

J.R.

1 Flashpoint

2 Caleb’s Posse

3 Uncle Mo

4 Justin Phillip

Ballerina Stakes

Keelerman

1 Sassy Image

2 Hilda’s Passion

3 Tar Heel Mom

4 Tamarind Hall

J.R.

1 Hilda’s Passion

2 Sassy Image

3 Devil by Design

4 Tar Heel Mom

Pacific Classic

Keelerman

1 Twirling Candy

2 Game On Dude

3 Setsuko

4 Quindici Man

J.R.

1 Tres Borrachos

2 Twirling Candy

3 Game On Dude

4 Acclamation

Pat O’Brien Stakes

Keelerman

1 Crown of Thorns

2 Smiling Tiger

3 The Factor

4 Camp Victory

J.R.

1 The Factor

2 Smiling Tiger

3 Camp Victory

4 Crown of Thorns

(Selections for this race based on the assumption that Caracortado will scratch in favor of the Del Mar Mile Handicap the day before)

-Keelerman

TRAVERS-WINNING TRENDS

Out of curiosity, I decided to compile a list of all the Travers winners since 2000 in an attempt to recognize potential Travers-winning trends that have occurred in recent years. While for the most part my study was inconclusive -- it was more for fun than anything else -- here are a few interesting facts that I discovered.
To begin, here is a list of the last eleven Travers winners and their finishing positions in their final prep races:

2010: Afleet Express - 3rd Jim Dandy Stakes
2009: Summer Bird - 2nd Haskell Invitational Stakes
2008: Colonel John - 3rd Swaps Stakes
2007: Street Sense - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2006: Bernardini - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2005: Flower Alley - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2004: Birdstone - 1st Belmont Stakes
2003: Ten Most Wanted - 2nd Swaps Stakes
2002: Medaglia d'Oro - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2001: Point Given - 1st Haskell Invitational Stakes
2000: Unshaded - 3rd Jim Dandy Stakes

As you can see, there has been a tendency in recent years for the Travers winner to win the Midsummer Derby off of a losing effort. Afleet Express, Summer Bird, and Colonel John all entered the race off of losses -- two of them well-beaten defeats -- yet all managed to pull off a victory in the prestigious event.

Over the past eleven years, the Jim Dandy Stakes has produced the most winners, with a total of six. The Swaps and the Haskell have each produced two, with the Belmont Stakes one. This is, however, somewhat deceptive, for Summer Bird, Ten Most Wanted, Medaglia d'Oro, Point Given, and Unshaded all ran in the Belmont Stakes as well as Birdstone; they merely had additional prep races in between. So in theory, six of the last eleven Travers winners ran in the Belmont Stakes.

On a similar note, seven of those eleven Travers winners ran in the Kentucky Derby, including 2007 Derby winner Street Sense. It appears as though horses that competed in the Triple Crown have a better chance at winning the Travers than horses that skipped the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont. In fact, Afleet Express was the first Travers winner since Coronado's Quest in 1999 to win the Travers after not competing in the Triple Crown.

Based on these statistics, one would have to give Stay Thirsty a decent shot at winning the Travers. He is coming off of a decisive and impressive victory in the Jim Dandy, which was preceeded by a close second in the Belmont Stakes and an off-the-board finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Although his status for the race is somewhat in doubt, Coil would be either the first or second choice in the Travers if he were to run. After finishing second, beaten a head, in the Swaps Stakes, he made a last-to-first move in the Haskell Invitational to defeat Preakness winner Shackleford by a neck. The Swaps Stakes has had some luck in producing Travers winners, as has the Haskell, the two races in which he has most recently competed.

But both of those contenders are coming off of winning efforts, which has not proven successful in recent years for Travers winners. Of the major 2011 Travers contenders coming off of losses, one most respects Shackleford and Ruler On Ice, winners of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, respectively. They both ran in the Haskell, with Shackleford finishing a strong second and Ruler On Ice a good third.

Arlington Million Day Handicapping Thoughts

Today is the day of the Arlington Million at Arlington Park in Illinois. Three grade I stakes races are on the card: The Secretariat Stakes (For 3yos; 1 1/4 Miles), the Beverly D. Stakes (For fillies and mares age three and upward; 1 3/16th miles), and the Arlington Million (For three year olds and upward, 1 1/4 miles). The turf course is labeled yielding.

The first race on the card is the Secretariat, which will have a field of nine after the scratch of Crimson China. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Treasure Beach, a son of Galileo that has raced exclusively in Europe to date. He has been racing very well this year, with a victory in the group I Irish Derby and a close second in the English Derby (Eng-I) among his top performances. However, he is coming off of a sub-par fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I), and considering the long voyage he has made to get to Arlington, it's possible that he may not bring his very best. On the other hand, it's possible that even something less than his very best could be enough to secure a win in this race, for he is without a doubt an exceptionally good colt.

The top American-based colts in the race are Banned and Willcox Inn, the second and third choices, respectively. Banned is coming off of a neck defeat in the Virginia Derby (gr. II) over this same route of distance, and previously won the Jefferson Cup Stakes (gr. III) and American Turf Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. A late-running son of Kitten's Joy, he shouldn't mind the soft going and should be a serious contender. Willcox Inn has experience over this turf course, having won both the Arlington Classic Stakes and the American Derby (gr. II) here at Arlington. He too should not be affected by the yielding turf.

Suntracer is worth mentioning as well. 15-1 on the morning line, he finished second to Willcox Inn in both the Arlington Classic and the Arlington Derby. With a little more luck, the son of Kitten's Joy could definitely pull off an upset.

Derby Kitten, third in the American and Lone Star Derbies, is 15-1 on the morning line. He usually presents some form of late rally, but whether he is good enough to defeat a field of this caliber is the question. Nevertheless, he should be respected here, and if the pace is quick he could pull off a mild surprise.

My selections here are:

1 Treasure Beach
2 Banned
3 Willcox Inn

In the Beverly D. Stakes, the morning line favorite is Stacelita at 3-1. A four-time group I winner in Europe, she already has a start in the United States under her belt, that being a close third in the United Nations Stakes (gr. I) against colts despite a bad trip. A daughter of Monsun, she will be facing fillies and mares today and should be able to work out a ground saving trip under Ramon Dominguez.

River Jetez, and champion in South Africa, will be making her first start in the United States. An eight-year-old daughter of Jet Master, she has been in pretty good form and her best performance would put her right in contention here.

The third choice is Cheetah, who was hugely impressive when winning the Robert G. Memorial Stakes (gr. III) at Delaware Park by 3 3/4 lengths. She did have a fast pace in front of her that day, but at least expect her to be running late at the finish here.

Fantasia, 6-1 on the morning line, always rallies and is coming off of a victory in the Modesty Handicap (gr. III), the local prep for this race. While she might not be quite as good as Stacelita or River Jetez, a strong performance would not surprise me.

One filly that I really like is Dubawi Heights. She is 10-1 on the morning line, which actually surprises me a great deal. She lost her first eights starts, but has been four-for-four since then, culminating with a head victory in the Gamely Stakes (gr. I) going nine furlongs last time out. With Joel Rosario aboard, I believe that she could prove to be Stacelita's biggest challenger.

My selections are:

1 Stacelita
2 Dubawi Heights
3 River Jetez

Finally, there is the big race of the day -- the Arlington Million itself. This year's edition will be the 29th running of the famous international race, which was actually the first race in the world to offer a purse of one million dollar purse. The narrowest of morning line favorites at 9-5 is Cape Blanco, an Irish-bred son of Galileo who shipped to the United States to win the Man o' War Stakes (gr. I) over two-time defending winner Gio Ponti. He has traveled all over the world with success, but his shipping schedule recently has been very impressive. One has to wonder if the number of transatlantic flights he has made recently will keep him from running his best race today, but if he does bring his best he will be very hard to beat.

Gio Ponti, defeated by Cape Blanco last time out as mentioned above, won this race in 2009 and finished a close second in 2010. A three-time Eclipse award winner, the six-year-old son of Tale of the Cat hasn't won a race since October of last year but has run very well in all of his four starts since then. Unfortunately, he runs his best races on firm turf, and the conditions of the Arlington course today may keep him from running his very best race.

Mission Approved, fourth in the Man o' War after setting the pace, is the third choice on the morning line at 6-1. He loves yielding turf courses, having decisively defeated Gio Ponti over one in the Manhattan Handicap (gr. I) back in June. If he can get a clear lead, he will be very, very tough to catch.

Then there is Wigmore Hall, another European shipper. He finished a strong second to Paddy O'Prado in last year's Secretariat Stakes, so he does have some experience over this course. However, he ran very poorly in Singapore last time out, so it's hard to say if he will brings his best race to Arlington this year.

My top picks are:

1 Cape Blanco
2 Gio Ponti
3 Mission Approved

-Keelerman

Whitney Handicap Analysis

Later this afternoon, the historic $750,000 Whitney Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga will be run. The 2011 edition has drawn a magnificent field of eleven horses, all battling for leadership of the older males division. In a year with not stand out in that category, this race could go a long why in deciding the Eclipse award for the year -- as well as establishing an early favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The mildest of morning line favorites is Flat Out at 4-1. Various injuries have limited this five-year-old's career to only nine starts, but last time out he dominated in the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) and earned a huge speed figure. The question is, was that performance simply what he is capable of or was it a one-time thing that signals a dramatic bounce this time out? I'm inclined to believe in the figure, merely because he has been so lightly raced, and I think that he will run another large figure today.

But will a large figure be enough to handle this field? The second choice at 5-1 is Giant Oak, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February. He hasn't won since then, but he is always closing late -- often too late. He'll need a quick pace in front of him, but expect to see him charging hard late in the race.

A trio of horses are all pegged at 6-1: Tizway, Mission Impazible, and Apart. Tizway is entering this race off of the best race of his career, albeit at a one-turn mile. That was the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), where he tracked the pace before drawing away to win easily in 1:32.90, the second fastest clocking in the long history of the event. Whether he can stretch his blazing speed around two turns in open to question, but like Flat Out his career has been plagued by injuries and he may simply be in the best form of his career right now. We know that he can negotiate at least one-and-a-half turns -- for he finished a strong third in the 2009 Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) while traversing Belmont Park's unique system for running races at a mile and a quarter. But he'll have to bring his best to beat these.

Mission Impazible has done little wrong this year, defeating Giant Oak and Apart in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and finished second beaten a neck in the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) last time out -- while again defeating Giant Oak and Apart, as well as Flat Out and Duke of Mischief. He'll likely be on or near the lead today, but with a great deal of speed in this race one must wonder if a pace meltdown is imminent.

As for Apart, he ran third in the Stephen Foster, beaten just a length and a half despite encountering traffic in the stretch. Seeing that his Foster performance was coming off the heels of a sharp victory in the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes (gr. III) and three other graded stakes-placings, I believe that he could be a serious contender indeed. It is worth noting that Apart and Giant Oak have met three times before, with Apart coming out ahead of his older rival twice, his lone loss to Giant Oak coming as a three-year-old in the 2010 Clark Handicap (gr. I) when Apart failed to fire at all.

Friend or Foe and Duke of Mischief are both 8-1 on the morning line. The former is coming off of an extremely good effort in the Easy Goer Stakes, where he defeated fellow Whitney starter Rail Trip, and if he runs back to it he will be dangerous today. However, there are several worrying factors in his past performances that make me suspect he won't. For one thing, four of his five wins have come at Belmont Park -- his lone win that did not come over that track was in a maiden special weight at Gulfstream. For another thing, he has yet to run a particularly good race going two turns. Although I will admit that he had some excuses in his pair of two-turn attempts.

As for Duke of Mischief, he's been in pretty good form lately, with a win in the $1,000,000 Charles Town Classic (gr. III) over Game On Dude and Tizway his best performance. Last time out, he finished fourth in the Stephen Foster after taking the lead in the stretch. But this is a horse that has never run well at Churchill Downs, turning in dismal performances for absolutely no reason when racing there. When viewed in this light, his Stephen Foster loss could be viewed as a sign that he is in terrific form and ready to run a tremendous race.

It's pretty hard to believe that Morning Line is 10-1. Winner of the seven-furlong Carter Handicap (gr. I) back in April, he did finish a disappointing fifth in his only start since then, the Salvator Mile Stakes (gr. III), but he was coming off of an injury-induced layoff and was probably using the race as a tightener. Still, nine furlongs may be just a tad beyond his best distance, and the front-running colt will definitely not be encountering an easy lead today.

Rail Trip has only made one start this year, finishing second to Friend or Foe in the Easy Goer Stakes. While on the surface it might not seem like all that remarkable a performance, one must note that he set a blazingly fast pace that day, running three-quarters in 1:09.14 and a mile in 1:33.65 before being beaten a head while the winner stopped the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:40.13. Seeing that this will be his second start off of a long layoff, it's possible that he could run huge today and win decisively. Or, if he gets caught up in a speed duel, he could potentially fade very badly in the stretch.

The two longshots at 20-1 are Headache and Rodman. The former won the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III) last time out while defeating the classy Awesome Gem, while the latter finished a distant third to Flat Out in the Suburban after running a strong second in the Metropolitan to Tizway. Both would need to improve their performances to make an impact, but with the race being so wide open I would definitely not count them out. If Rodman should return to the closing style that saw him run second in the Met Mile -- rather than the front-running approach that served him so poorly in the Suburban -- he could especially have a shot at securing a sizable piece of the purse.

And so after a great deal of thought, here are my picks:

1 Flat Out
2 Apart
3 Tizway

-Keelerman

The Juveniles at Saratoga -- August 4th, 2011

Three promising-looking maiden races for juvenile fillies are on today's card at Saratoga. They will be run in a streak as the third, fourth, and fifth races on the card. Let's see who's running!

Saratoga Race 3
Maiden Special Weight
2yo Fillies
$50,000
Five Furlongs

Entries:

Program #/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Spring Breeze (Scratched)
2 Reservation Blues (Scratched)
3 Mi Vida 15-1
4 Stay Composed 10-1
5 Ribbon Taffy (Scratched)
6 Flashy in Pink 8-1
7 Good Deed 4-1
8 Zunlei 5-1
9 Alydarla (Scratched)
10 Grace Like Rain 15-1
11 Composition 6-1

The scratch of morning line favorite Reservation Blues has left original 4-1 second choice Good Deed as the favorite. An unraced son of Broken Vow, trained by Steve Margolis, she has been turning in some eye-catching bullet works and looks ready to run. A victory here in her first start would not surprise me at all. Shaun Bridgmohan has the mount.

Xunlei is the second choice at 5-1. Trained by Dale Romans, the daughter of D'wildcat finished second in her only start to date, a five-furlong main track maiden special weight at Belmont Park. But that was on July 7th, and she has recorded no workouts since then, which is a bit odd. She will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.

Then there is Composition, trained by Christophe Clement. A daughter of Malibu Moon, she is unraced but has been turning in some decent five-furlong workouts. Unlike many first-time starters, she will not be racing on Lasix today. Jose Lezcano has the mount.

Todd Pletcher has an intriguing contender here in the form of Flashy in Pink. By Flashy Bull, she has been working very consistently at Belmont Park, turning in nine workouts over the course of the last two months. None of them have been blazingly fast, but with top rider Ramon Domingiuz in the saddle I wouldn't count her out.

Stay Composed, a daughter of Bernstein, has been turning in three- and four-furlong workouts at Belmont Park and Saratoga. Trained by Bruce Brown, she will have the leading rider of the meet--Javier Castellano--aboard this afternoon in what could be a very good race for her.

This brings us to the two longest shots on the morning line at 15-1 apiece, Mi Vida and Grace Like Rain. The former, a daughter of Distorted Humor, has turned in a pair of exceptional half-mile works over the Saratoga main track and really looks ready to outrun her odds. Trained by Eric Guillot, David Cohen will ride her. Grace Like Rain's workouts haven't been anything phenomenal, but the daughter of Stormy Atlantic will have Alan Garcia aboard in what will be her debut race. D. Wayne Lukas is her trainer.

My picks are:

1 Stay Composed
2 Good Deed
3 Flashy in Pink

Saratoga Race 4
Maiden Special Weight
2yo Fillies
$40,000
5-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Entries:

Program #/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Read the Research 4-1
2 Dayatthespa 5-1
3 Mighty Reward 6-1
4 Stock Fund 15-1
5 Barrel of Joy 30-1
6 Quiet Ending 7-2
7 False Alibi 30-1
8 Ladywell Court 20-1
9 Satin Sheeks 3-1
10 Lisini 10-1
11 Darn That Trip (Scratched)

The mild morning line favorite is the Linda Rice-trained Satin Sheeks. A daughter of Elusive Quality, she has been breezing well over the Saratoga turf, and Rice is excellent at preparing horses for turf sprints. Cornelio Velasquez will be aboard this top contender.

The other favorites are Quiet Ending, Read the Research, and Dayatthespa. Quiet Ending, an unraced daughter of Langfuhr, is trained by Christophe Clement and has been training fairly well at Saratoga. John Velazquez has the mount.

Read the Research is an unraced daughter of Freud trained by William Mott. She too has been training pretty well and looks like a contender here. She will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.

The aptly-named Dayatthespa, trained by Chad Brown, really looks good in this spot. By City Zip, she has been training very consistently at Saratoga and has Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. I believe that she will run a good race.

My selections are:

1 Satin Sheeks
2 Dayatthespa
3 Quiet Ending

Saratoga Race 5
Maiden Claiming
2yo Fillies
$29,000
5-1/2 Furlongs

Entries:

Program #/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Victory Island (Scratched)
1A Not Close 7-2
2 Spark Will Fly (Scratched)
3 Cat On the Island 10-1
4 Sweet Moon 8-1
5 Ripley's Gold 10-1
6 Hall of Flame 6-1
7 For Her Eyes Only 9-2
8 Winning Case 8-1
9 Why Take a Chance 12-1
10 Harbor Mist 15-1
11 Tale of Utopia 20-1

Todd Pletcher has the morning line favorite in Not Close. A daughter of 2006 Wood Memorial winner Bob and John, the filly has been turning in some decent workouts at Saratoga and will be making her debut. Owned by Repole Stable, she will be ridden by John Velazquez.

For Her Eyes Only turned in a bullet half-mile breeze at Saratoga on July 28th, turning in the fastest of 72 workouts at that distance. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the son of Utopia will have Ramon Dominguez in the saddle and looks like a serious contender.

Hall of Flame could be an intriguing contender. Trained by Ramon Hernandez, she finished seventh in her only start to date, a 5-1/2 furlong main track special weight at Belmont Park. However, the daughter of Hook and Ladder finished just a half-length behind Bellacourt, who returned to win her next start impressively. Thus, Hall of Flame could prove to be a solid contender at a price. Eddie Castro has the mount.

Why Take a Chance could actually prove to be a contender here. Trained by Kenny McPeek, the filly--who is also a daughter of Hook and Ladder--has turned in three consecutive five-furlong works at Saratoga and looks fit and ready for this race. Manoel Cruz will ride her.

My picks are:

1 For Her Eyes Only
2 Not Close
3 Why Take a Chance

I shall post the results of the recent Saratoga juvenile races during tomorrow's post. Until then, enjoy the races everyone!

-Keelerman