The 2011 edition of the Travers Stakes is being billed as the battle for the three-year-old male championship – just as the Haskell Stakes (gr.I) was four weeks ago. As we all recall, the Haskell was supposed to determine whether Preakness winner Shackleford or Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice was the superior three-year-old colt. In the end, Coil ran past them both to win by a neck and further muddle a division that has been wide-open all year long.
Hopefully, the Travers will go further in determining who the year-end champion should be. There are four horses in this race that could stamp themselves as leader of the division with a victory – Coil, Shackleford, Ruler On Ice, and Stay Thirsty. The latter finished a close second in the Belmont and returned to win the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) in impressive fashion. Should one of these colts win, they would not only lead the three-year-old division but would have at least a decent shot at taking Horse of the Year.
If any of the other colts win? Well, then the division stays in shambles.
The morning line favorite is Stay Thirsty, a well-bred son of Bernardini who can definitely get the mile and a quarter distance of the Travers. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the colt claims by far the highest last-out Beyer Speed figure in the races, but the question is: will he repeat it? He did get a pretty much dream trip in the Jim Dandy, but turned in a :23.41 third quarter to get himself into contention and stayed on very well from there to win by four lengths. He has two wins and a second from three starts at Saratoga, so we know he likes the track. Top rider Javier Castellano will be aboard, and from gate nine Stay Thirsty should be able to work out a good mid-pack trip.
Coil has been pretty consistent during his career, never failing to hit the board, and has won four of his last five starts. Up until the Haskell, he was known as a headstrong front runner/pace presser. However, when he bumped into the gate at the start of Haskell and ended up last early on, it didn’t matter. He just adjusted his style, relaxed, and came on to defeat Shackleford by a neck. He will likely have no trouble with this distance and turned in a bullet work in preparation for this, so he will definitely be right there in the stretch this afternoon.
Shackleford and Ruler On Ice each won a Triple Crown race as mentioned above, but can they win the Travers? Shackleford has had a long, hard campaign this year and I can’t help but think that he might be just a bit past his prime right now. In addition, the ten furlong distance of the Travers is probably just a tad bit too long for him. Granted, he has a lot of early speed and will probably be up front early on, but I think that he will be caught in the stretch while tiring to finish late.
As for Ruler On Ice, he is better the farther he runs, so he will have no trouble with this distance. He was beaten by just over two lengths in the Haskell while third, but his best race came over a sloppy track in the Belmont Stakes. Obviously, he will be a tough contender, but he still hasn’t proven that his Belmont win wasn’t just a fluke in the slop. On the other hand, he’s been racing very consistently and a win would not surprise me.
Best of the rest? I think that J W Blue has a good chance at hitting the board at a huge price. He has been running well in non-graded stakes races, most recently finishing a close second in the Barbaro Stakes, but is taking a huge step up in class. However, he has a potent late kick, should relish the distance, and his trainer Anthony Dutrow is not one to enter horses unless he believes they will run well. I think that he can hit the board without a doubt.
Rattlesnake Bridge won the Long Branch Stakes, but still has a lot to prove and is stepping way up in class. Raison d’Etat was second in the Curlin Stakes and likewise will be making his graded stakes debut. Malibu Glow’s two stakes attempts were less-than-stellar, but he won an allowance race here at Saratoga last time out. Moonshine Mullin was second to Stay Thirsty in the Jim Dandy after a win in the Victoria Stakes in Canada. Bowman’s Causeway was second in the Prince of Wales Stakes in Canada, but was no match for the likes of Dialed In, Shackleford, and Soldat in Florida this spring.
I really don’t love any of the big four in this spot – I feel that all still have some questions to answer – so I’ll go out on a limb and pick J W Blue. I have the feeling that he is sitting on a huge race and will not embarrass himself.
So my top four selections are:
1 J W Blue
2 Coil
3 Stay Thirsty
4 Ruler On Ice
This race shall also mark the first of the new “Breeders’ Cup Handicapping Contest” between J.R. and I, in similar style to the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest we contested during the spring. Here are J.R.’s Travers picks:
1 Rattlesnake Bridge
2 Stay Thirsty
3 Raison d’Etat
4 Ruler On Ice
Also, here are our picks for the other major weekend races:
King’s Bishop
Keelerman
1 Caleb’s Posse
2 Uncle Mo
3 Flashpoint
4 Dominus
J.R.
1 Flashpoint
2 Caleb’s Posse
3 Uncle Mo
4 Justin Phillip
Ballerina Stakes
Keelerman
1 Sassy Image
2 Hilda’s Passion
3 Tar Heel Mom
4 Tamarind Hall
J.R.
1 Hilda’s Passion
2 Sassy Image
3 Devil by Design
4 Tar Heel Mom
Pacific Classic
Keelerman
1 Twirling Candy
2 Game On Dude
3 Setsuko
4 Quindici Man
J.R.
1 Tres Borrachos
2 Twirling Candy
3 Game On Dude
4 Acclamation
Pat O’Brien Stakes
Keelerman
1 Crown of Thorns
2 Smiling Tiger
3 The Factor
4 Camp Victory
J.R.
1 The Factor
2 Smiling Tiger
3 Camp Victory
4 Crown of Thorns
(Selections for this race based on the assumption that Caracortado will scratch in favor of the Del Mar Mile Handicap the day before)
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment