TRAVERS-WINNING TRENDS

Out of curiosity, I decided to compile a list of all the Travers winners since 2000 in an attempt to recognize potential Travers-winning trends that have occurred in recent years. While for the most part my study was inconclusive -- it was more for fun than anything else -- here are a few interesting facts that I discovered.
To begin, here is a list of the last eleven Travers winners and their finishing positions in their final prep races:

2010: Afleet Express - 3rd Jim Dandy Stakes
2009: Summer Bird - 2nd Haskell Invitational Stakes
2008: Colonel John - 3rd Swaps Stakes
2007: Street Sense - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2006: Bernardini - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2005: Flower Alley - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2004: Birdstone - 1st Belmont Stakes
2003: Ten Most Wanted - 2nd Swaps Stakes
2002: Medaglia d'Oro - 1st Jim Dandy Stakes
2001: Point Given - 1st Haskell Invitational Stakes
2000: Unshaded - 3rd Jim Dandy Stakes

As you can see, there has been a tendency in recent years for the Travers winner to win the Midsummer Derby off of a losing effort. Afleet Express, Summer Bird, and Colonel John all entered the race off of losses -- two of them well-beaten defeats -- yet all managed to pull off a victory in the prestigious event.

Over the past eleven years, the Jim Dandy Stakes has produced the most winners, with a total of six. The Swaps and the Haskell have each produced two, with the Belmont Stakes one. This is, however, somewhat deceptive, for Summer Bird, Ten Most Wanted, Medaglia d'Oro, Point Given, and Unshaded all ran in the Belmont Stakes as well as Birdstone; they merely had additional prep races in between. So in theory, six of the last eleven Travers winners ran in the Belmont Stakes.

On a similar note, seven of those eleven Travers winners ran in the Kentucky Derby, including 2007 Derby winner Street Sense. It appears as though horses that competed in the Triple Crown have a better chance at winning the Travers than horses that skipped the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont. In fact, Afleet Express was the first Travers winner since Coronado's Quest in 1999 to win the Travers after not competing in the Triple Crown.

Based on these statistics, one would have to give Stay Thirsty a decent shot at winning the Travers. He is coming off of a decisive and impressive victory in the Jim Dandy, which was preceeded by a close second in the Belmont Stakes and an off-the-board finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Although his status for the race is somewhat in doubt, Coil would be either the first or second choice in the Travers if he were to run. After finishing second, beaten a head, in the Swaps Stakes, he made a last-to-first move in the Haskell Invitational to defeat Preakness winner Shackleford by a neck. The Swaps Stakes has had some luck in producing Travers winners, as has the Haskell, the two races in which he has most recently competed.

But both of those contenders are coming off of winning efforts, which has not proven successful in recent years for Travers winners. Of the major 2011 Travers contenders coming off of losses, one most respects Shackleford and Ruler On Ice, winners of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, respectively. They both ran in the Haskell, with Shackleford finishing a strong second and Ruler On Ice a good third.