Today is the day of the Arlington Million at Arlington Park in Illinois. Three grade I stakes races are on the card: The Secretariat Stakes (For 3yos; 1 1/4 Miles), the Beverly D. Stakes (For fillies and mares age three and upward; 1 3/16th miles), and the Arlington Million (For three year olds and upward, 1 1/4 miles). The turf course is labeled yielding.
The first race on the card is the Secretariat, which will have a field of nine after the scratch of Crimson China. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Treasure Beach, a son of Galileo that has raced exclusively in Europe to date. He has been racing very well this year, with a victory in the group I Irish Derby and a close second in the English Derby (Eng-I) among his top performances. However, he is coming off of a sub-par fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I), and considering the long voyage he has made to get to Arlington, it's possible that he may not bring his very best. On the other hand, it's possible that even something less than his very best could be enough to secure a win in this race, for he is without a doubt an exceptionally good colt.
The top American-based colts in the race are Banned and Willcox Inn, the second and third choices, respectively. Banned is coming off of a neck defeat in the Virginia Derby (gr. II) over this same route of distance, and previously won the Jefferson Cup Stakes (gr. III) and American Turf Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. A late-running son of Kitten's Joy, he shouldn't mind the soft going and should be a serious contender. Willcox Inn has experience over this turf course, having won both the Arlington Classic Stakes and the American Derby (gr. II) here at Arlington. He too should not be affected by the yielding turf.
Suntracer is worth mentioning as well. 15-1 on the morning line, he finished second to Willcox Inn in both the Arlington Classic and the Arlington Derby. With a little more luck, the son of Kitten's Joy could definitely pull off an upset.
Derby Kitten, third in the American and Lone Star Derbies, is 15-1 on the morning line. He usually presents some form of late rally, but whether he is good enough to defeat a field of this caliber is the question. Nevertheless, he should be respected here, and if the pace is quick he could pull off a mild surprise.
My selections here are:
1 Treasure Beach
2 Banned
3 Willcox Inn
In the Beverly D. Stakes, the morning line favorite is Stacelita at 3-1. A four-time group I winner in Europe, she already has a start in the United States under her belt, that being a close third in the United Nations Stakes (gr. I) against colts despite a bad trip. A daughter of Monsun, she will be facing fillies and mares today and should be able to work out a ground saving trip under Ramon Dominguez.
River Jetez, and champion in South Africa, will be making her first start in the United States. An eight-year-old daughter of Jet Master, she has been in pretty good form and her best performance would put her right in contention here.
The third choice is Cheetah, who was hugely impressive when winning the Robert G. Memorial Stakes (gr. III) at Delaware Park by 3 3/4 lengths. She did have a fast pace in front of her that day, but at least expect her to be running late at the finish here.
Fantasia, 6-1 on the morning line, always rallies and is coming off of a victory in the Modesty Handicap (gr. III), the local prep for this race. While she might not be quite as good as Stacelita or River Jetez, a strong performance would not surprise me.
One filly that I really like is Dubawi Heights. She is 10-1 on the morning line, which actually surprises me a great deal. She lost her first eights starts, but has been four-for-four since then, culminating with a head victory in the Gamely Stakes (gr. I) going nine furlongs last time out. With Joel Rosario aboard, I believe that she could prove to be Stacelita's biggest challenger.
My selections are:
1 Stacelita
2 Dubawi Heights
3 River Jetez
Finally, there is the big race of the day -- the Arlington Million itself. This year's edition will be the 29th running of the famous international race, which was actually the first race in the world to offer a purse of one million dollar purse. The narrowest of morning line favorites at 9-5 is Cape Blanco, an Irish-bred son of Galileo who shipped to the United States to win the Man o' War Stakes (gr. I) over two-time defending winner Gio Ponti. He has traveled all over the world with success, but his shipping schedule recently has been very impressive. One has to wonder if the number of transatlantic flights he has made recently will keep him from running his best race today, but if he does bring his best he will be very hard to beat.
Gio Ponti, defeated by Cape Blanco last time out as mentioned above, won this race in 2009 and finished a close second in 2010. A three-time Eclipse award winner, the six-year-old son of Tale of the Cat hasn't won a race since October of last year but has run very well in all of his four starts since then. Unfortunately, he runs his best races on firm turf, and the conditions of the Arlington course today may keep him from running his very best race.
Mission Approved, fourth in the Man o' War after setting the pace, is the third choice on the morning line at 6-1. He loves yielding turf courses, having decisively defeated Gio Ponti over one in the Manhattan Handicap (gr. I) back in June. If he can get a clear lead, he will be very, very tough to catch.
Then there is Wigmore Hall, another European shipper. He finished a strong second to Paddy O'Prado in last year's Secretariat Stakes, so he does have some experience over this course. However, he ran very poorly in Singapore last time out, so it's hard to say if he will brings his best race to Arlington this year.
My top picks are:
1 Cape Blanco
2 Gio Ponti
3 Mission Approved
-Keelerman
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