Later this afternoon, the historic $750,000 Whitney Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga will be run. The 2011 edition has drawn a magnificent field of eleven horses, all battling for leadership of the older males division. In a year with not stand out in that category, this race could go a long why in deciding the Eclipse award for the year -- as well as establishing an early favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
The mildest of morning line favorites is Flat Out at 4-1. Various injuries have limited this five-year-old's career to only nine starts, but last time out he dominated in the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) and earned a huge speed figure. The question is, was that performance simply what he is capable of or was it a one-time thing that signals a dramatic bounce this time out? I'm inclined to believe in the figure, merely because he has been so lightly raced, and I think that he will run another large figure today.
But will a large figure be enough to handle this field? The second choice at 5-1 is Giant Oak, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February. He hasn't won since then, but he is always closing late -- often too late. He'll need a quick pace in front of him, but expect to see him charging hard late in the race.
A trio of horses are all pegged at 6-1: Tizway, Mission Impazible, and Apart. Tizway is entering this race off of the best race of his career, albeit at a one-turn mile. That was the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), where he tracked the pace before drawing away to win easily in 1:32.90, the second fastest clocking in the long history of the event. Whether he can stretch his blazing speed around two turns in open to question, but like Flat Out his career has been plagued by injuries and he may simply be in the best form of his career right now. We know that he can negotiate at least one-and-a-half turns -- for he finished a strong third in the 2009 Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) while traversing Belmont Park's unique system for running races at a mile and a quarter. But he'll have to bring his best to beat these.
Mission Impazible has done little wrong this year, defeating Giant Oak and Apart in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and finished second beaten a neck in the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) last time out -- while again defeating Giant Oak and Apart, as well as Flat Out and Duke of Mischief. He'll likely be on or near the lead today, but with a great deal of speed in this race one must wonder if a pace meltdown is imminent.
As for Apart, he ran third in the Stephen Foster, beaten just a length and a half despite encountering traffic in the stretch. Seeing that his Foster performance was coming off the heels of a sharp victory in the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes (gr. III) and three other graded stakes-placings, I believe that he could be a serious contender indeed. It is worth noting that Apart and Giant Oak have met three times before, with Apart coming out ahead of his older rival twice, his lone loss to Giant Oak coming as a three-year-old in the 2010 Clark Handicap (gr. I) when Apart failed to fire at all.
Friend or Foe and Duke of Mischief are both 8-1 on the morning line. The former is coming off of an extremely good effort in the Easy Goer Stakes, where he defeated fellow Whitney starter Rail Trip, and if he runs back to it he will be dangerous today. However, there are several worrying factors in his past performances that make me suspect he won't. For one thing, four of his five wins have come at Belmont Park -- his lone win that did not come over that track was in a maiden special weight at Gulfstream. For another thing, he has yet to run a particularly good race going two turns. Although I will admit that he had some excuses in his pair of two-turn attempts.
As for Duke of Mischief, he's been in pretty good form lately, with a win in the $1,000,000 Charles Town Classic (gr. III) over Game On Dude and Tizway his best performance. Last time out, he finished fourth in the Stephen Foster after taking the lead in the stretch. But this is a horse that has never run well at Churchill Downs, turning in dismal performances for absolutely no reason when racing there. When viewed in this light, his Stephen Foster loss could be viewed as a sign that he is in terrific form and ready to run a tremendous race.
It's pretty hard to believe that Morning Line is 10-1. Winner of the seven-furlong Carter Handicap (gr. I) back in April, he did finish a disappointing fifth in his only start since then, the Salvator Mile Stakes (gr. III), but he was coming off of an injury-induced layoff and was probably using the race as a tightener. Still, nine furlongs may be just a tad beyond his best distance, and the front-running colt will definitely not be encountering an easy lead today.
Rail Trip has only made one start this year, finishing second to Friend or Foe in the Easy Goer Stakes. While on the surface it might not seem like all that remarkable a performance, one must note that he set a blazingly fast pace that day, running three-quarters in 1:09.14 and a mile in 1:33.65 before being beaten a head while the winner stopped the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:40.13. Seeing that this will be his second start off of a long layoff, it's possible that he could run huge today and win decisively. Or, if he gets caught up in a speed duel, he could potentially fade very badly in the stretch.
The two longshots at 20-1 are Headache and Rodman. The former won the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III) last time out while defeating the classy Awesome Gem, while the latter finished a distant third to Flat Out in the Suburban after running a strong second in the Metropolitan to Tizway. Both would need to improve their performances to make an impact, but with the race being so wide open I would definitely not count them out. If Rodman should return to the closing style that saw him run second in the Met Mile -- rather than the front-running approach that served him so poorly in the Suburban -- he could especially have a shot at securing a sizable piece of the purse.
And so after a great deal of thought, here are my picks:
1 Flat Out
2 Apart
3 Tizway
-Keelerman
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