Breeders' Cup Friday 2012 Selections

It's hard to believe that the Breeders' Cup is finally here. It always seems as though it kind of sneaks up on you arrives before you've even finalized your selections . . .

That was the case this year as well -- when it comes to the Breeders' Cup, I'm pretty much still making picks just minutes before post time for a given race -- but here are my selections for Friday's races, which will be run later this afternoon. For added fun, J.R.'s selections will accompany mine and we can see who does better. Enjoy!

Juvenile Sprint

Keelerman: 1. Super Ninety Nine 2. Merit Man 3. Sweet Shirley Mae

J.R.: 1. Merit Man 2. Sweet Shirley Mae 3. Super Ninety Nine

Trained Bob Baffert won this race last year with the speedy Secret Circle, and now sends out the intriguing Super Ninety Nine. The son of Pulpit doesn't really have a early-maturing speed pedigree, but looked great breaking his maiden going seven furlongs by 1 1/4 lengths. Cutting back in distance a bit, expect him to settle just off the pace early on before finishing up well in the homestretch. Merit Man showed fine form breaking his maiden first time out and backed that up with a dominating 5 1/2-length victory in the Tim Conway Stakes. He does hold a tactical advantage over Super Ninety Nine in terms of early speed, but will surely face early pace pressure from South Floyd and possibly Hazardous, which could make things slightly difficult for him. For third, I like the Wesley Ward filly Sweet Shirley Mae, who rallied from well back to get second in the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. The daughter of Broken Vow has also show a great deal of early speed, and should be coming late for a major piece of the purse.
Update -- with Super Ninety Nine having scratched from the race, my new selection is Merit Man.

Marathon (gr. III)

Keelerman: 1. Calidoscopio 2. Juniper Pass 3. Eldaafer

J.R.: 1. Jaycito 2. Eldaafer 3. Grassy

To be perfectly honest, there are at least a half-dozen horses that I could have picked to win and been confident in my chances. Fame and Glory has been a top-notch horse in Europe for years, but hasn't been in great form recently and will have to prove he can handle the dirt. Atigun has established himself as a good three-year-old stayer by finishing third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and fourth in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I), but will have to prove himself against older horses. Commander has a great deal of speed and could potentially steal the race in gate-to-wire fashion if the pace is slow enough. Eldaafer won this race in 2010 and seems to be coming into this race in terrific form. Grassy is a nice graded stakes competitor on grass that will be trying dirt for the first time. Jaycito hails from the barn of Bob Baffert and seems to be rounding back into form following a so-so summer campaign. Juniper Pass won the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap (gr. II) at this obscure fourteen-furlong distance in 2011 and is proven over the Santa Anita main track. Not Abroad looked terrific winning the Maryland Millions Classic and has run well at twelve furlongs, but the distance may be a bit far for him. But the horse I find most intriguing is Calidoscopio, a nine-year-old group I winner that most recently won the group II General Belgrano in Argentina. Trained by Guillermo Frenkel, the veteran of thirty-nine starts has been training quite well at Santa Anita -- without a saddle on most occasions -- and while South American form can be questionable in America, there's no doubt that this guy can run all day, and traversing a mile and three-quarters, that should be a huge asset in his favor.

Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. Spring Venture 2. Sky Lantern 3. Oscar Party

J.R.: 1. Sky Lantern 2. Flashy Ways 3. Spring Venture

This is one of the deepest races of the entire Breeders' Cup, but in the end, I believe there are a couple of standouts. The filly I am most confident in is Spring Venture, who absolutely blew the doors off her rivals in the Natalma Stakes (gr. II) two starts back and is unchallenged in three starts. Her turn-of-foot is simply breathtaking, and while the competition will be tougher today, I feel she's up to the challenge. Remember, Natalma runner-up Spring in the Air came back to win the Darly Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland. Sky Lantern, shipping from Europe for trainer Richard Hannon, has never finished worse than second in five starts and looked terrific winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes (gr. I) last time out. Also, three starts back, she finished a good second to Europe's top two-year-old filly Certify in a group III at Newmarket, further establishing her credentials. The only reason I'm not picking her on top is because I just like Spring Venture's chances slightly better. For third place, Flashy Ways, Flotilla, Watsdachances, and Waterway Run are obvious possibilities, but I think Oscar Party can rally for a piece. Beaten a neck in the Jessmine Stakes (gr. III) after a tough trip, she certainly appears eligible to improve on that effort and is trained by Wayne Catalano, who won this race last year with Stephanie's Kitten. Also, you might want to take a look at 30-1 shot Nancy O, who finished a troubed third in the Natalma before being distanced in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I) over dirt.

Juvenile Fillies (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. Executiveprivilege 2. Beholder 3. Spring in the Air

J.R.: 1. Kauai Katie 2. Beholder 3. Dreaming of Julia

To me, this is a rather tricky race to decipher. It's hard not to like the chances of Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Katie, but both face the difficult task of shipping from the East coast to win a Breeders' Cup Juvenile race -- a feat that can be quite difficult. Of the pair, I actually prefer Kauai Katie, despite her lesser credentials, as I feel her victory in the Matron Stakes (gr. II) over a track somewhat unkind to speed was exceptional. But for the top spots, I like Beholder and Executiveprivilege -- but in which order is difficult to say. Executiveprivilege has terrific credentials, being unbeaten in five starts, but the Bob Baffert-trainee took advantage of a slow pace and a speed-favoring track to romp in the Chandelier Stakes (gr. I), and really doesn't have an edge over he rivals in terms of Beyer speed figures. Beholder was beaten a nose by Executiveprivilege in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante (gr. I), and returned to win a six-furlong allowance race by eleven lengths with a Beyer of 108, but is unproven at this distance and will be breaking from post one. My final selection may be influenced by how the track is playing, but I'm going to side with Executiveprivilege for the time being.

Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. The Fugue 2. Marketing Mix 3. Ridasiyna

J.R.: 1. Marketing Mix 2. Lady of Shamrock 3. The Fugue

This race has come up very deep, but I think The Fugue is close to being a standout. The John Gosden-trained three-year-old filly romped in the Nassau Stakes (Eng-I) two starts back under conditions similar to these, and was beaten just a beck last time out by the talented Shareta in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-I). A versatile filly, she should be able to adapt to just about any given pace scenario and finish up with a powerful three-eighths of a mile run. Marketing Mix is the top North American hopeful, as the Canadian-bred mare is coming off of a powerful victory in the Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita, but received a pretty much perfect setup that day and is now facing much tougher. Ridasiyna has won four of her five starts, including the Prix de l'Opera (Fr-I) last time out, but one could argue that she is a bit better over softer ground. In Lingerie has never run on turf before, but the daughter of Empire Maker is 3-for-3 on synthetic tracks, which includes a strong victory in the Spinster Stakes (gr. I) last time out. If she can transfer her form to turf, she'll most likely get first run at the leaders, and from there, they'll have to catch her to beat her. Nahrain, I'm A Dreamer, and Lady of Shamrock certainly warrant respect too, as both have one grade I races this year, but you can't pick them all!

Ladies' Classic (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. Royal Delta 2. Awesome Feather 3. Questing

J.R.: 1. Awesome Feather 2. Royal Delta 3. Love and Pride

Of all the races on either day of the Breeders' Cup, this is the one I am looking forward to most. The deep eight-horse field contains three Eclipse champions, seven grade I winners, and one eight-time stakes winner. But as strong as this field is, I can't really see past picking Royal Delta. Winner of this race last year, the Bill Mott-trained filly is coming off of a terrific victory in the Beldame Invitational Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park, in which she pressured three-time grade I winner It's Tricky through quick fractions before pulling away powerfully in the homestretch. Her subsequent training has been excellent, and I think she's sitting on another huge effort. Awesome Feather looked terrific in her most recent start, an 11 1/4 length victory in the Nasty Storm Stakes at Belmont Park, and should get a terrific trip just off the leaders. The only question is how she'll handle the rise is class while making only her second start since January. Questing won a pair of grade Is this summer in terrific fashion, including the ten-furlong Alabama Stakes, and had legitimate excuses for her head defeat in the Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) last time out. If the track is kind to speed -- which it usually is -- the daughter of Questing could take this field a long way on the front end. Love and Pride is a bit overlooked, but the two-time grade I winner has been at Santa Anita for weeks preparing for this race and has been training very well. Expect to see her Grace Hall fits with these on her best day, but is a bit inconsistent and had her travel schedule goofed up by Hurricane Sandy. Include Me Out is a two-time grade I winner and has run quite well here at Santa Anita, but a mile and a sixteenth may be her best distance, and this is a really deep field. My Miss Aurelia is unbeaten in six starts, including the Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) last time out over Questing, but faces a much tougher pace scenario today and will have to receive some racing luck to overcome breaking from post two. Class Included has never finished worse than second in sixteen starts, and turned in a good workout last week, but is taking a huge step up in class and may be in a bit deep.

-Keelerman