Happy Breeders' Cup Saturday, everyone! As good as
Friday's Breeders' Cup races were, today's promise to be even better, with
another nine terrific races on the schedule. Let's start handicapping!
Juvenile Turf
1. George Vancouver 2. Dundonnel 3. Noble Tune
There's no denying that Dundonnel is the horse to
beat, by merit of his win in the group III Acomb Stakes and subsequent
runner-up effort in the group II Champagne Stakes, but I'm going to take a
chance with George Vancouver. The Aidan O'Brien-trainee has only won one
of his six starts, but three back he finished a very strong second to the top
colt Reckless Abandon in the group I Prix Morny. Given his apparent fondness
for firm turf, I expect him to turn in a top performance today. I can see just
about any horse rounding out the trifecta, but I'll take a shot with Noble
Tune, who showcased brilliant turn-of-foot in winning the Pilgrim Stakes
(gr. III) last time out. Gervinho is also intriguing off of his solid win
in the Zuma Beach Stakes here at Santa Anita, and Brown Almighty looms a
potentially live longshot off of his troubled third in the Bourbon Stakes (gr.
III) last time out.
Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Groupie Doll 2. Musical Romance 3. Dust and Diamonds
The spectacular Groupie Doll may end up being the
heaviest favorite out of all the fifteen Breeders' Cup races, thanks to her
four straight graded stakes victories this year. Coming off of an exceptional
win in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II), which she won by 6 1/2
lengths, the four-year-old filly appears capable of adapting to any pace
scenario and should be able to work out a good trip from gate nine. Musical
Romance won this race last year, and has trained very well for a defense of
her title, but only time will tell if she can match strides with Groupie Doll. Dust
and Diamonds won the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II) last time out, but was
helped by the fact that the two favorites failed to fire and were giving her a
substantial weight break. Stretching out a sixteenth of a mile further, she
could potentially lead this field a long way if yesterday's speed bias shows up
again, but I don't think she can hold off Groupie Doll under even weights. Switch
has run second in two straight editions of this race, and although she may
not be in quite the same form this year as in years past, this is her home
track, and seven furlongs is her best distance.
Dirt Mile
1. Rail Trip 2. Jersey Town 3. Shackleford
I find this race rather tricky to interpret, so I'm going
to take a chance with a long shot. Rail Trip has been able to flash
brilliant speed in the past, and while he may be slightly better on synthetic
tracks than dirt, he has turned in good efforts over the latter surface in the
past. His last effort wasn't great, but he was fighting against a speed bias. I
envision him settling along the inside early on before shifting out and giving
his best shot in the homestretch. Shortening up from longer races, and with
plenty of two-turn experience, it might be enough to get him the win. Jersey
Town has had hoof issues in the past, but his terrific win in the Kelso
Handicap (gr. II) against a bias -- coupled with his subsequent training --
signal that he's back in top form. Note, however, that it's been a long time
since he's gone two-turns. Shackleford would be the one to beat in a
one-turn mile, but lost the Kelso despite having a bias in his favor and
although he did win the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) around two-turns last year, he
does seem to be simply better around one. Emcee should be able to work
out a good trip stalking Shackleford, but stretching out around two-turns for
the first time is a concern for him.
Turf Sprint
1. California Flag 2. Unbridled's Note 3. Reneesgotzip
I always tend to over-think this race and talk myself out
of a fairly obvious winner. I did it two years ago with Chamberlain Bridge, and
I did it last year with Regally Ready. So this year, I'll just go with my gut
feeling that California Flag is the best horse in the race over the
course and will not be beat. True, he has drawn post one, which may be a
disadvantage, and true, there are plenty of other front-runners in this race.
But he's 5-for-7 on the downhill turf, has run well off long layoffs before,
and has been training well. Perhaps he can end his career on a high note. Unbridled's
Note won the Eddie D Stakes (gr. III) over this course last time out, and
-- being a closer -- he should not be affected by the potentially blazing pace.
Reneesgotzip has never run on turf, much less downhill turf, but has a
strong turf pedigree and is an exceptionally fast sprinter. Word is that she's
trained well over turf, too.
Juvenile
1. Shanghai Bobby 2. Title Contender 3. Power Broker
Much like the Juvenile Fillies yesterday, I'm having trouble
figuring this race out. For the moment, I'm leaning toward Shanghai Bobby because
he should be able to work out an excellent trip stalking Title Contender during
the preliminary stages of the race, and from there, he should be able to finish
up strongly. But if speed on the rail is the bias again today, I may have to
formulate another plan that has Title Contender on top, as I can't
envision a scenario where he does get the lead from gate one. Power Broker was
exceptional in winning the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) under the same conditions
as today's race, but did have a bias in his favor and must now overcome
starting from gate nine. Capo Bastone looms an intriguing longshot off
of his rallying third in the FrontRunner, but would stand no chance if yesterday's
bias carries over to today. Should I change my selection, I'll be sure to post
it during one of my live updates.
Turf
1. Shareta 2. St Nicholas Abbey 3. Point of Entry
In the days leading up to this race, I was prepared to
pick Trailblazer for the win, based off of his terrific runner-up effort
in the Arroyo Seco Mile (gr. II) here at Santa Anita last time out. But he
apparently kicked his stall yesterday, and while he's sound this morning, my
confidence in him has been shaken. Thus, I'll go with Shareta. This
French filly absolutely relishes firm ground -- which she will get here -- and
has been running very well this year despite encountering less-than-ideal
conditions. In fact, two starts back, she beat subsequent Arc de Triomphe
winner Solemia by two lengths in a group I, signaling that she is certainly one
of the best turf horses in the world on her best day. St Nicholas Abbey won
this race last year, but comes into this year's edition at the end of a very
long and difficult campaign. Perhaps he can repeat, but it won't be easy. Point
of Entry has won three straight grade I races and should enjoy the
conditions, but has never faced horses of this caliber before. Slim Shadey
could potentially build up a big lead early on while spending the first couple
furlongs of the race on the downhill turf, and looms as an intriguing longshot
if he can maintain it long enough.
Sprint
1. Fast Bullet 2. Amazombie 3. Jimmy Creed
California sprinters are tough to beat in any given
Breeders' Cup, and when you give them a home-court advantage, they're just
about unstoppable. Thus, my selections shall reflect that. Fast Bullet has
only raced twice, and has not run since last November, but I think he's got the
speed to take the early advantage, seize command of the rail, and never look
back. With thirteen other horses behind him, there's bound to be some traffic
and many runners could suffer from rough trips. Amazombie won this race
last year and has run well this year too, but is coming off of a sub-par effort
in Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (gr. I). He's trained well since
then, but as a mid-pack runner, he'll have to get a clean trip. Jimmy Creed ran
well to be third in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, but will have to
overcome breaking from post two.
Mile
1. Moonlight Cloud 2. Excelebration 3. Wise Dan
After watching brilliant acceleration win both the
Juvenile Fillies Turf and the Filly and Mare Turf yesterday afternoon, I have
the feeling that the Europeans Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud will
be up to the task of denying the super-talented Wise Dan in the Mile.
Wise Dan deserves absolute and complete respect, for his victories in the
Woodbine Mile (gr. I), Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I), and Fourstardave Handicap
(gr. II) were exceptional. But, I don't think he has quite the same
turn-of-foot as the two Europeans, both of which are coming off of group I wins
against good company. Picking between them is hard, but I'll side with
Moonlight Cloud because I feel that her sprinters speed will enable her to get
the jump on Excelebration in the homestretch. Let's also give utmost respect to
Obviously, who has terrific early speed and the ability to sustain it a
long way. So long as he holds a large enough advantage turning for home,
catching him will be very, very difficult.
Classic
1. Game On Dude 2. Mucho Macho Man 3. Pool Play
Noting how the track played yesterday, I can't envision Game
On Dude losing. With his high cruising speed and the ability to blow races
wide open on the far turn, I think he may end up dominating the race. Mucho
Macho Man also has high cruising speed and has draw a perfect post for his
racing style, but catching Game On Dude is not going to be an easy task at all.
Pool Play is 2-for-2 on dirt, and should relish a mile and a quarter. If
the pace is quick, expect to see him making up ground at the finish. Let's also
take a moment to mention Nonios as a potential longshot candidate, as
the talented three-year-old has run well in very good company this year and is
training quite well.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment