Well, the big day is finally here! Time to make our final run through the nineteen contenders and try and piece together some selections. As usual, we will be breaking down the contenders into three groups, based on how well I like their chances. Enjoy!
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
#7 GIANT FINISH - Last-minute entry ran well when finishing third in the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway, but his only victories came against New York-breds, and by far the worst effort of his career came over a sloppy track. He has the speed to work out a stalking trip, but it's hard to envision him finish well enough to garner more than a minor share.
#11 LINES OF BATTLE - Irish-invader enters off of a solid victory in the UAE Derby (UAE-II) in Dubai, but while he is certainly bred to handle the distance, it's the surface that poses a bigger question. The Derby will mark his first start on dirt. Being a son of War Front out of an Arch mare, handling dirt isn't out of the question, but reports are that his stride seems better suited to turf. He could definitely be in the mix, especially if the track comes up sloppy, but that's a long trip from Dubai.
#13 FALLING SKY - Talented colt won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa back in February before finishing a distant third in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). He has the breeding to handle the mud, being by Lion Heart out of Sea Hero, but ten furlongs may be a bit beyond his best distance, especially facing a field of this caliber.
#15 CHARMING KITTEN - There aren't many colts I'd like to see win the Derby more than Charming Kitten, as I am very fond of the Kitten's Joy progeny and would enjoy seeing the Ramseys win the Derby. But as impressed as I was by Charming Kitten's Blue Grass run -- in which he got shuffled back after a decent start and still rallied to be beaten just a half-length -- the fact remains that he has never run on dirt, and probably has a brighter future on turf.
#17 WILL TAKE CHARGE - I rank him among the unlikely contenders simply because of the weather forecast; let's not forget that Will Take Charge was absolutely trounced when sixth in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), his lone start on an off track. There are other questions as well, such as the seven-week layoff and the slow five-furlong breeze on April 29th. Deserves respect off of his Rebel triumph, but of the two Lukas trainees, I prefer Oxbow.
#19 JAVA'S WAR - Hard to get a good idea of where this colt fits in. His Blue Grass run was exceptional, as he ran his last three-eighth in a simply spectacular :36 flat. Anything close to that in the Derby would put him right in contention. On the same note, he presented an eye-catching rally when second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby on dirt. On the other hand, he didn't really fire when sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill last fall, and his habit of breaking very slowly puts him at a disadvantage in what should be a moderate-paced Derby. Certainly can make an impact, but like others, his future is probably on turf and Polytrack.
MEDIUM CONTENDERS
#4 GOLDEN SOUL - Maybe I'm crazy, but I actually like this colt's chances pretty well. His sixth-place finish in the Risen Star (gr. II) was by no means bad, and he made a strong middle move in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) to crack the superfecta. Furthermore, he finished just 1 1/2 lengths behind Departing that day, and Departing came back to win the Illinois Derby (gr. III) in sharp fashion. He's had two nice workouts since then, and while he may be overlooked coming into the Derby, I think he can work out a decent trip from gate four and put in a good run late.
#5 NORMANDY INVASION - Wood Memorial runner-up has shown a lot of speed in recent workouts, which may or may not be a good thing. On the positive side, it should enable him to work out a good trip while breaking from gate five, and it should help him to get into the thick of things quicker than usual. On the negative side, he could wind up too close to the early lead, weakening his closing kick and stretching his already speed-oriented pedigree to the limit. Certainly deserves a ton of respect, but I'm leaning against him today.
#6 MYLUTE - When a trainer voices serious concerns about a horse handling nine furlongs, you have to question whether that horse is a good bet going another furlong farther. That is the case with Mylute, whose trainer Tom Amoss questioned the colt's ability to handle the distance of the Louisiana Derby. In the end, Mylute handled it just fine, losing by a neck to the very game Revolutionary. But what worries me is that Mylute looked like a winner at the eighth pole before flattening out just a bit and allowing Revolutionary to reclaim the lead. This is something that Mylute has done a few of other times in the past. In the Risen Star, he was just a length behind at the eighth pole before weakening to be beaten 3 1/4. In the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes last year, he made a spectacular rally around the turn to draw within a length of the lead before winding up third by three lengths. That said, Mylute is bred to handle the mud, and if the track comes up sloppy as expected, you can be pretty sure he'll relish it.
#9 OVERANALYZE - From a visual perspective, he was exceptional in the Arkansas Derby, racing wide throughout before pulling away to dominate by 4 1/4 lengths. However, from a speed figure perspective, it was a rather slow race, and from a final time perspective, it was the slowest Arkansas Derby since 1978. That said, his final eighth in about :12 3/5 was strong, and he showed a lot of grit last year winning the Remsen by a nose over Overanalyze. Of course, the fact that he tends to sandwich winning efforts around poor performances is concerning, as he enters the Derby poised for one of his sub-par races. On the other hand, Todd Pletcher called the colt's last workout his best ever, and I agree with that. So as you can see, I'm not really sure what to do with Overanalyze. Either he's going to run huge, or he's going to finish well behind. And I really don't know which.
#10 PALACE MALICE - He's never run a bad race, not even in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), where his seventh-place finish was the result of a disastrous trip. Last time out, he seemed to lose focus in the stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), which wound up costing him dearly as Java's War rallied to edge him by a neck. Returning now to dirt, where he is probably at his best, Palace Malice is bred to handle the slop and should be able to work out a nice mid-pack trip while starting from gate ten. Interestingly, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time today, an equipment change surely meant to keep him focused.
#12 ITSMYLUCKYDAY - He was as impressive as could be in his first two starts of the year, romping to victory in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). Interestingly, he regressed considerably when second in the Florida Derby (gr. I) off of a two-month layoff, the second time in his career that he failed to fire off a break. I think he got a lot out of that race and should be considerably sharper today, and since he has the tactical speed to stay in touch with the early leaders, he should be right in contention rounding the final turn. Also, don't forget that he won the Fasig-Tipton Turf Dash at Calder last year over a sloppy sealed track.
#14 VERRAZANO - What's not to like about an unbeaten Wood Memorial winner? Well, nothing, except that we were saying the same thing about Gemologist last year prior to his sixteenth-place finish. I expect Verrazano to perform a lot better than that, especially considering that he has drawn outside the primary speed and should work out a great trip. My main concern is that he may have peaked earlier this year. Todd Pletcher's Derby horses don't usually run four races in the span of little more than three months, and this busy schedule may be taking its toll on Verrazano, who couldn't shake Vyjack and Normandy Invasion in the Wood Memorial despite getting a very easy trip. Throw in the Apollo Curse -- no horse has won the Derby with racing as a two-year-old since Apollo in 1882 -- and you have yourself a legitimate, but vulnerable contender.
#18 FRAC DADDY - Runner-up in the Arkansas Derby has had a generally disappointing three-year-old season, but seems to be heading in the right direction now and could be sitting on a big effort. He's already run two good races at Churchill, including a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), and given the tactical speed he has displayed in the past, it wouldn't surprise me to see him racing just a few lengths off of the early lead.
#20 VYJACK - One of the best efforts of his career came over a sloppy sealed track in the Traskwood Stakes at Aqueduct last fall, so he shouldn't have any trouble with today's wet track. Drawing gate twenty certainly wasn't the best, but I think he's versatile enough to work out a decent trip, regardless of whether the pace is fast or slow. Perhaps he doesn't have the best breeding for ten furlongs, and perhaps his recent training hasn't been stellar, but I'm intrigued by his chances.
WIN CONTENDERS
#2 OXBOW - My decision to include him among the win contenders came just this morning. With the track likely to be sloppy, and with his strong breeding off-track breeding, I think this colt could be sitting on a gate-to-wire effort. Think about it -- with the scratch of Black Onyx, he's got enough room on the inside to speed away and take the lead, assuming he breaks well. And since he'll be on the inside, we won't have to worry about him getting hung wide on the turns, which has been the case in his last three starts. And of course, the Awesome Again/Tizamazing match-up should provide Oxbow with more than enough stamina to handle the distance. I can just see Oxbow bounding out of the starting gate, taking command of the lead, and running the stalkers off their feet while the closers struggle to get untracked as mud flies in their faces. We already saw Princess of Sylmar win yesterday's Oaks at 38-1. Can Oxbow do the same?
#3 REVOLUTIONARY - In my opinion, this is the colt to beat, especially if the track comes up sloppy. We have seen what jockey Calvin Borel is capable of doing in the Churchill slop -- remember Mine That Bird and Super Saver? And let's be honest, has there ever been a horse more perfectly suited to Borel's riding style than Revolutionary? This is a colt that surged through one hole after another in the Withers Stakes (gr. III), turning certain defeat into thrilling victory with a spectacular stretch rally. This is a colt that made a sustained rally down the backstretch and around the turn of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) to take command of the lead -- and then tenaciously hold off the rally of Mylute. This is a colt that earned a Beyer speed figure of 102 when breaking his maiden. Many people expect him to be well off of the early pace, but I don't see that happening. I think the only reason Revolutionary was so far behind in the Louisiana Derby was because of his sluggish start, and assuming Borel can get him out of the gate a bit quicker this afternoon, I envision Revolutionary sitting mid-pack early before riding the rail for yet another Bo-rail victory.
#8 GOLDENCENTS - I'll be the first to admit that I've never viewed this colt as one that could handle ten furlongs, but his Santa Anita Derby victory was visually impressive, and the 105 Beyer that he earned for that triumph is by far the highest last-out figure earned by any of the Derby horses. Taking into account the pace-tracking dimension that he showed in the Santa Anita Derby, I would think that Goldencents will try to settle just behind Oxbow and Falling Sky early on, then try and get first run on the final turn and open up as large a lead as possible before the closers come running. I have two concerns. One is the mud, over which he is untested. The other is the competitive nature he displayed in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) two starts back. Now, don't get me wrong, I like a colt with fire and determination, but the way he accepted Flashback's challenge -- resulting in a truly blazing speed duel that exhausted them both -- makes me wonder if the atmosphere of the Derby will rile him up and cause him to forget rating and sprint much too hard early on. In conclusion, I think Goldencents' Derby fate will be determined in the opening two or three furlongs.
#16 ORB - The incident two days ago where he got spooked in the paddock was concerning, but he seems to have emerged from the event without injury. He's probably been training the best of anyone coming into the Derby, and with his powerful late run, you have to think that he's going to be coming hard in the final quarter mile. The slop is a big question mark, but I'm feeling pretty good about his chances today.
Selections:
1 Revolutionary
2 Orb
3 Oxbow
4 Goldencents
-Keelerman
