Triple Crown Countdown 2-9-13

This weekend is a bit light in terms of Kentucky Derby prep races -- actually, there are no official preps on the agenda -- so instead of simply focusing on the day's best races, we shall begin today's Triple Crown Countdown with a quick look at the first Kentucky Derby future wager pool, which opened yesterday.

My first thought upon seeing the odds was that there are several severe overlays. Imagine this -- there are twenty-four betting interests. Fully eleven of them -- Capo Bastone, Code West, Delhomme, Den's Legacy, Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy, Mylute, Super Ninety Nine, Vyjack, and Will Take Charge -- are 99-1 or higher, and a twelfth -- Uncaptured -- currently sits at 96-1.

In my opinion, the best value in the pool is Code West. What's not to like? He's trained by Bob Baffert. He has a strong mile-and-a-quarter pedigree. He just finished second in a strong allowance race at Santa Anita Park, earning a Beyer speed figure of 94. In contrast, that is a higher figure than anything Flashback (20-1), Oxbow (48-1), and Violence (9-1) have earned. Furthermore, Code West is bound for a graded stakes race next time out, and a victory -- which is certainly not out of the question -- would drastically lower his odds in future wager pool #2.

Capo Bastone, Dynamic Sky, Frac Daddy, and Super Ninety Nine also look like exceptional values. The latter colt earned a Beyer of 100 when defeating Code West in that recent allowance race, and that 100 is among the highest figures earned by a member of this three-year-old crop. And Frac Daddy -- wasn't he on everyone's Derby lists prior to his defeat in the Holy Bull? If you're willing to forgive his poor effort, which was surely the result of a hoof injury suffered early in the race, then I think now would be the time to lock in a great price.

Another colt that looks a bit high-priced to me is Holy Bull winner Itsmyluckyday, who currently sits at 20-1. In contrast, Shanghai Bobby -- whom he defeated in the Holy Bull -- is 9-1. Assuming Itsmyluckyday wins the Florida Derby, or even finishes a close second, he'll likely be a lot lower than 20-1 on Derby day.

****

A couple of other things to add before we move on to handicapping today's races… First off, it has been confirmed that Uncaptured, who has been dealing with hoof issues since his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November, is pointing toward a start in either the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) or the Rushaway Stakes on March 23rd. He still isn't back on the work tab, but it shouldn't be long now before he turns in his first breeze of the year.

Also, Titletown Five, who broke his maiden in spectacular fashion for trainer D. Wayne Lukas last October, turned in his second breeze of the year this morning when he traversed a half-mile in :48.20 at Oaklawn Park. It was the second-fastest of sixty-two such morning works, signaling that the colt could be back to the races within the next month or so.

****

Time to start handicapping! We'll begin with the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel, the only stakes for three-year-old colts scheduled for this afternoon.

Miracle Wood Stakes

8 furlongs on the Laurel Park main track

As I write this, two of the eight entrants have been scratched, leaving a field of just six to contest the $125,000 stakes.

Heavily favored on the morning line at 7-5 is Vegas No Show, winner of the Dover Stakes and runner-up in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) last year. However, his two most recent efforts have been below par for him -- a 28 1/2-length defeat in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) was followed by a 5 3/4-length loss in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II). On the other hand, his last two workouts have been very sharp, including a bullet five-furlong breeze, and he looks poised to turn in a much-improved performance.

Alpha Mike Foxtrot has plenty of experience, having raced ten times as a juvenile, and enters this race off of a runner-up effort to the well-regarded Ore Pass in the Frank Whitely, Jr. Stakes here at Laurel. Previously, he had won the Maryland Juvenile Championship Stakes -- also at Laurel -- with a powerful late rally. Expect to see him rallying fast in the homestretch.

Dynamic Strike, a well-bred son of Smart Strike, has won two consecutive races at a mile in sharp fashion, but is taking a fairly substantial step up in class and will have to be sharp to beat the two favorites. Where's Dominic has won two of his three starts sprinting, but is now stretching beyond six furlongs for the first time. Lunar Rock has finished first, second, or third in nine of his ten starts, but has been beaten soundly by Alpha Mike Foxtrot in his last two starts. Rounding out the field is Yougotthatgoinforu, who wired a one-mile allowance race in December at Penn National. Obviously, he does possess some tactical speed, but this is a much tougher field than the ones he's been facing at Penn National, and he appears to be in a bit deep here.

Selections: Alpha Mike Foxtrot, Vegas No Show, Lunar Rock

Other Races of Note

At Fair Grounds . . .

Race 7: Hard to say if any Triple Crown candidates will emerge from this 8.5-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, but I'll be watching nonetheless to see if Hansen's full brother Gunderson can finally break his maiden. He lost his first two starts by a combined 30 1/2 lengths, but flashed much better form last time out to be beaten just 2 1/4 lengths on the main track here at Fair Grounds. Perhaps he won't win, but he has the speed to be a contender from the start.

Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race marks the return of Carson's Crown, a debut winner that hasn't run since finishing a troubled second in the Hollywood Juvenile Championships Stakes (gr. III) last July. Formerly trained by John Sadler, he will make his debut for Michael Stidham in this race. Favorite Uncle, third to Malibu High in a similar event to this one in December; sharp maiden claiming winner Take It Like a Man; and the experienced Tap and Trade are other well-regarded entrants.

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 5: Forget the wonderful quartet of graded stakes races later on the card! The highlight of the day for the Triple Crown-obsessed is the 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race that has drawn such promising names as Little Distorted (3rd in Spectacular Bid Stakes, beat Revolutionary in debut), Declan's Warrior (1st in debut at Belmont; unraced since), Park City (Pletcher-trained maiden winner at Saratoga; unraced since); John Gordon (5th in Sanford for Dale Romans; unraced since); Almost English (5th in Gulfstream Park Derby); and Jay Eye See (7th to Majestic Hussar and Palace Malice in recent allowance; previously broke maiden by daylight.)

Race 6: Todd Pletcher has the favorite in this mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight, the colt in question being Tapulous. A son of (who else!) Tapit, the colt has only run once, finishing a so-so fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight here at Gulfstream last month. Given that he flashed some good speed that day, I would think that Tapulous will have a good shot at stretching out and stealing this race on the front end. Wabbajack, third to Looking Cool and Doherty in a recent maiden special weight; Dyker Beach, beaten a half-length in a race similar to this one last month; the consistent O T B Bob; and the promising Chad Brown-trainee Saint Vigeur are the other main contenders, the latter colt looking especially strong.

Race 7: Todd Pletcher also has the favorite in this race, a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on the turf. His runner here is Jack Milton, who was highly impressive breaking his maiden under these same conditions last month. The possessor of an exceptional turn-of-foot, Jack Milton looks tough to beat in this spot. The speedy Play It Loud; the stakes-placed Newfound Zapper, and the well-bred stretch-out sprinter Sayaad are the other logical contenders.

At Santa Anita . . .

Race 7: Nine three-year-old colts have been entered in this six-furlong maiden special weight, with the morning line favorite being Bob Baffert's first-timer starter Zee Bros. A son of Brother Derek out of the Montbrook mare Nyanza -- a very different pedigree, don't you agree? -- Zee Bros has been training up a storm for months, and looks ready to win. To be perfectly honest, I think he may launch himself on to everyone's Derby lists tomorrow. Other notable entrants include Bench Press, third to the promising Cabello Del Cielo in a recent maiden special weight; Joelito, unraced since finishing second by a neck to Den's Legacy in a maiden race at Del Mar last summer; and Salutos Amigos, fourth to Let Em Shine sprinting six furlongs on January 19th.

-Keelerman

Frac Daddy breezes four furlongs

Frac Daddy, who finished sixth in last month's Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) after injuring his hoof early in the race, returned to the work tab on the morning of February 9th at Gulfstream Park.

The son of Scat Daddy was timed breezing a half-mile in :49.28 seconds, the twenty-third fastest of thirty-four works at that distance. Trained by Kenny McPeek, Frac Daddy's next race has yet to be determined, but the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. III) on February 23rd at Fair Grounds is probably not out of the question.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-8-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by Deputy Minister) Trained by Bob Baffert
Are you surprised? You had better be -- I myself couldn't believe it when I decided to put this colt at the top of my list. But his maiden victory on Saturday was other-worldly. Yes, the pace he set was definitely on the slow side, and it's not like there was a world-class field behind him. But what I just can't get over is that he closed his final two furlongs in :11.61 and :11.87 seconds. That is just mind-boggling. The last maiden I can remember doing something similar was Bodemeister. Furthermore, Tiz the Truth's final time of 1:36.28 was quicker than the one-mile fractions of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1:36.53) and the Strub Stakes (1:36.47) later in the day. Oh yeah, and as an added bonus, Gary Stevens is his rider. Imagine the excitement that would ensue should Gary make it to the Derby!

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He's up to five furlongs in his training, having breezed that distance in 1:01.23 seconds on February 3rd. Displacing him from the top spot has nothing to do with a change of opinion or heart -- I just really liked Tiz the Truth's effort and wanted to put him at #1.

3. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
He is to have just one more prep race before the Kentucky Derby, that coming in the Florida Derby (gr. I) on March 30th. However, it's interesting to note that he has only earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points -- and with that in mind, he's going to have to be sharp for the Florida Derby, because he can't afford a poor finish.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his Holy Bull conqueror Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby will use the Florida Derby as his only other stop on the road to Louisville. But unlike Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby is positioned a bit better in terms of qualification points, having already earned 24. A third-place finish should secure him a spot in the Derby, and even a fourth-place finish would probably suffice. Truth be told, the chances of him performing that badly are remote, but after what happened to Union Rags and El Padrino last year -- who knows?

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Forget the low Beyer speed figure. Forget the fact that he won by just a neck. Revolutionary's performance in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) last Saturday was among the most spectacular I have ever seen from a three-year-old colt. After breaking slowly and winding up dead-last rounding the final turn, Revolutionary weaved his way between horses in the homestretch, saw an opening between horses with about a sixteenth of a mile to go, and surged through to win in dramatic fashion. He had every right to lose that race, but he didn't. The guts to turn certain defeat into victory by rallying through tiny holes could prove useful in a race like the Derby.

6. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Tiz the Truth, Flashback got a very easy trip in his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) victory, but did finish up well to win by over six lengths. It was a very good performance, and he obviously had something left in the tank, but I didn't think it was quite as sharp as Tiz the Truth's maiden victory earlier on the card. Regardless, there's plenty of potential for Flashback, who is likely to use the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) in March as a prep for the Santa Anita Derby.

7. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Up until recently, I thought that Gunderman was a pretty decent horse. Then I watched him get beat nearly seventeen lengths by Verrazano. So . . . either Gunderman isn't the horse I thought he was, or this Verrazano colt is nothing short of amazing . . . I'll go with the latter. Words cannot describe how powerful Verrazano looked on Saturday, drawing off under virtually no urging to win a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park in 1:34.80. That was an unreal performance, and the scary part is that he clearly had something left in the tank.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Call me stubborn if you like, but I'm putting him back on my list. This morning, he breezed for the first time since breaking his maiden, going three furlongs in :37 1/5. I'll admit he's running out of time to join the Triple Crown trail, but if any trainer can get a horse like this to the Derby, it's Lukas.

9. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He still seems to be several works away from his first start, as his most recent breeze was five-eighths in 1:02.90, but I still think that his efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year were two deceptively good efforts. I'm looking forward to his return, whenever it may be.

10. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
With just a little more than two weeks remaining before his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth, I expect we'll be seeing a sharp workout from Violence this weekend. I'm still having a ton of trouble gauging just how good this colt is, so the Fountain of Youth should go a long way toward determining his future rankings.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Remember last week, when I noted in confusion that War Academy had breezed on turf? Well, he went back to dirt for his next work, traversing six furlongs in 1:12.60 from the gate on February 4th. He is nominated -- along with stablemates Belvin and Shakin It Up -- to the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on February 17th, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is entered.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like I've said in the past, I really don't know where to put this colt, and I won't until I see how he runs in the Gotham. There's no denying that his victory in the Remsen (gr. II) last fall was excellent. On the other hand, he seemed somewhat one-paced that day, and he's probably going to have to show a little better turn-of-foot to win a race like the Derby.

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Here's another colt that I'm not sure what to do with. His LeComte win was great. He seemed to have something left in the tank at the finish. But he set a slow pace -- can he go faster early and still finish strongly? This will be the key to his future success, and I hope to see him answer that question in the Risen Star.

14. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse
I thought his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) was good, but not quite what I was hoping for. True, he got hung wide around both turns, and he did finish up well in deep stretch. But I didn't like the way he was drifting in early stretch. Had he maintained a straight course, I am confident he could have won. Hopefully, he'll straighten out and keep his focus better in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

15. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds as though he'll make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, where we'll get a chance to see how he stacks up against Normandy Invasion and Oxbow. Breezed a half-mile in the good time of :48.19 seconds on February 3rd, so he should certainly be ready in time.

16. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
There are plenty of options available for this promising colt's next start, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 2nd and the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 6th. Both races would seem to fit his schedule well, and he certainly has the foundation to jump into graded stakes company. After all, he's already got six starts under his belt -- that's two more than Verrazano and Flashback combined! :)

17. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion
He'll get another big test on March 3rd, when he contests the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. From there, he'll head to the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park, where he will try and give Team Valor a three-peat following the victories of Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Went the Day Well in 2012.

18. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
It's beginning to look as though the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 9th could be one of the best Derby preps of the year, at least from an anticipation standpoint. Both Goldencents and Flashback are pointing toward the race, with He's Had Enough, Tiz the Truth, Demonic, Tiz a Minister, and others possible as well. It should be a very stiff test for Goldencents, who will have to prove that he can handle the presence of other quality front-runners and still hold off the closers.

19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Breezed five furlongs on February 4th in a very sharp 1:00.60 at Fair Grounds, signaling that a race like the Risen Star could be next on the agenda.

20. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
After months of wondering why he wasn't on the work tab, it hit me a few days ago. A Godolphin-owned three-year-old . . . why, he's probably in Dubai! That turned out to be the case, as it was recently announced that Fortify will make his three-year-old debut in the UAE 2,000 Guineas on February 14th. Hard to say if he's being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but he certainly turned in some nice efforts last year, and if he finds success in Dubai -- who knows?

21. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert
A full-brother to 2009 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) winner Charitable Man, this Bob Baffert-trainee recently returned from a three-month layoff to finish second in a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita, behind fellow Baffert-trainee Super Ninety Nine. While Super Ninety Nine was more impressive on the day, I like the overall impression that Code West has given during his career, and his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs will be well within his range.

*****

As you may have noticed, Dewey Square has been removed from my top twenty. I had originally intended to leave him on, but with so many impressive efforts from up-and-comers last week, not much to say about this colt until he gets back on the work tab. To the best of my knowledge, no next-race plans have been announced, so we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach with this colt until further notice.

Also disappearing from this week's rankings are He's Had Enough, Frac Daddy, Will Take Charge, and Tiz a Minister. The first-mentioned colt has been dropped off of his disappointing third in the Robert B. Lewis, while the other two have been removed to make way for other up-and-coming runners.

Narrowly failing to make this week's list is Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Give him a ton of credit -- he successfully stretched his speed around two turns and showed a lot of grit in holding off Dynamic Sky to win in good fashion. But while his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs could be within his range, he has given me the impression thus far that he may be at his best sprinting. We'll learn more about him in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

-Keelerman

Titletown Five returns to work tab

Titletown Five, who broke his maiden by nine lengths last October, returned to the work tab after a lengthy absence when he breezed three furlongs at Oaklawn Park this morning.

The son of Tiznow out of D' Wildcat Speed clocked the distance in :37 1/5, the fifth-fastest of the nine morning works at that distance.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Titletown Five lost the first three starts of his career while competing against horses such as CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence, recent Gulfstream allowance winner Orb, Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes winner Maybe So, and the impressive Gulfport. In his fourth start, a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, Titletown Five went straight to the lead and never looked back, winning by nine lengths over subsequent allowance winner Bradester and recent Fair Grounds maiden winner Proud Strike.

Titletown Five went to the sidelines shortly thereafter with an ankle chip. Today's breeze marks his first official workout since then. He is expected to return to the races sometime toward the end of March.

-Keelerman

Honorable Dillon makes the grade in Hutcheson Stakes

Honorable Dillon picked up the first graded stakes victory of his career when he rallied to the lead and held off Forty Tales to win the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park by a half-length.

Ridden to victory by Joseph Rocco Jr., Honorable Dillon was taken back to race in fourth early on, four lengths behind front-running Singanothersong. Undrafted and Merit Man were tracking the pace in second and third, while Weekend Hideaway, Forty Tales, Really Sharp, and Pataky Kid were the early trailers.

Through fractions of :22.07 and :44.64 Singanothersong led the way, but rounding the turn, Undrafted and Honorable Dillon moved up as a team to challenge for the lead. Undrafted was the first to gain the advantage, passing the eighth pole in front by a half-length following three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.40, but Honorable Dillon tenaciously rallied past to take command of the lead.

Forty Tales rallied quickly on the outside after racing along the rail for much of the race, but ran out of ground and fell a half-length short of Honorable Dillon, who reached the wire in 1:22.53 seconds.

Undrafted finished a nose behind Forty Tales in third, followed by Merit Man, Weekend Hideaway, Singanothersong, Pataky Kid, and Really Sharp.

Honorable Dillon is a son of Tapit out of Shy Greeting, by Shy Tom. He is trained by Eddie Keneally and owned by Joseph Brucci.

-Keelerman

Falling Sky goes gate-to-wire in Sam F. Davis Stakes

Despite obviously tiring in the homestretch, Falling Sky succeeded in stretching his speed around two turns and won the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs by a neck.

With Jose Espinoza aboard, Falling Sky went straight to the front while setting a moderate pace of :23.49, :47.68, and 1:12.61 seconds. Divine Ambition was tracking him in second, followed by Balino, Dynamic Sky, Silver Day, and Speak Logistics. Lightning Stone, My Name Is Michael, and Midnite Poppa were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Dynamic Sky moved up to challenge Falling Sky for the lead, but the front-runner had plenty left in the tank and spurted clear to a two-length lead passing the eighth pole. Dynamic Sky refused to give in, closing fast in the final sixteenth of a mile to cut the margin to just a neck, but Falling Sky held on gamely to win the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.79 seconds, a respectable time over the generally slow Tampa Bay Downs main track.

My Name Is Michael rallied belatedly for third, three lengths behind Dynamic Sky. Speak Logistics, Midnite Poppa, Divine Ambition, Silver Day, Lightning Stone, and Balino completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Lion Heart out of the Sea Hero mare Sea Dragoness, is trained by John Terranova II and owned by Newton Anner Stud, James Covello, and Joseph Bulger.

-Keelerman

Revolutionary overcomes terrible trip in Withers Stakes

3-4 favorite Revolutionary overcame a terrible trip to win the $200,000 Withers Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct by a neck, proving to all who saw his performance that he is among the finest three-year-old colts in the country.

With Javier Castellano aboard, Revolutionary broke a step slowly at the beginning of the mile and a sixteenth race, and thus found himself in sixth place early on as Siete de Oros led the way through an opening quarter mile of :24.22 seconds. Escapefromreality and Smooth Bert were his closest pursuers, followed by Amerigo Vespucci, Long River, Revolutionary, Champion Boy, and Valid, who stumbled to his knees at the start and caused his rider to lose an iron.

Siete de Oros continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :48.18, but behind him, there were several position changes. Smooth Bert moved up to draw within a head of the front, while Long River cruised up on the outside to secure third position. Amerigo Vespucci was maintaining his position in fourth, while Escapefromreality was back to fifth. Champion Boy and Valid were next, while Revolutionary was dead last with about 4-1/2 furlongs to go.

As the field moved around the far turn, Siete de Oros boldly clung to his advantage over Smooth Bert, getting three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.48 seconds to enter the stretch still narrowly in front. In the meantime, Revolutionary had only Valid beaten, and was down along the rail with nowhere to run.

Back up front, Siete de Oros had opened up a one-length lead past the eighth pole, but Escapefromreality was moving up strongly to challenge for the lead and appeared to be on his way to victory.

But behind them, Revolutionary was building up steam, working his way between horses to reach contention. With just seventy yards to go, he was third; only the two leaders were left to pass. There was a narrow gap between them. With unprecedented acceleration Revolutionary exploded through the opening, getting up in time to beat Escapefromreality by a head in 1:44.32 seconds.

Siete de Oros tired just a bit in deep stretch, finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind the top pair in third. Amerigo Vespucci, Champion Boy, Smooth Bert, Valid, and Long River completed the order of finish.

The winner is owned by WinStar Farm and trained by Todd Pletcher. A son of War Pass out of the A.P. Indy mare Runup The Colors, Revolutionary has now compiled a record of 2-1-2 from five starts, with earnings of $188,500.

-Keelerman

Flashback romps in Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Flashback established himself as one of the leaders of the three-year-old division in California -- and perhaps the country -- when he drew off for an unbelievably easy victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park.

Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Flashback got off to a very good beginning and was quickly sent to the lead, setting moderate fractions of :24.17, :48.69, and 1:12.17 while being tracked by He's Had Enough. Den's Legacy and Little Jerry were the trailers of the four-horse field.

Moving around the final turn, He's Had Enough came under pressure to try and stay with Flashback, while the latter colt was still under a hand ride from Leparoux. As it turned out, Flashback would remain under a hand ride for the rest of the race, for after disposing of He's Had Enough at the top of the stretch, Flashback began to draw away with ease. At the finish, he was in front by 6 1/4 lengths, stopping the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:42.95 seconds.

Den's Legacy stayed on mildly to edge He's Had Enough for second by a half-length, with Little Jerry another 5 1/2 lengths back in fourth.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Gary and Mary West. He is a son of Tapit out of Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley.

-Keelerman

Tiz the Truth breaks maiden under Gary Stevens

Tiz the Truth gave jockey Gary Stevens a possible mount for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) when the fine colt dominated a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by a spectacular 7 3/4 lengths, giving the impression that a graded stakes victory may be in the near future.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Tiz the Truth was entering the race off of a head defeat to the highly-regarded Demonic in a maiden sprint on January 13th. As a result of this performance, Tiz the Truth was sent off as the 1-2 favorite in today's race.

He definitely ran to his odds.

After getting off to a very quick start, Tiz the Truth went straight to the lead and was in front by two lengths following an opening quarter mile in :24.30. With Spirited Touch, Misdeed, Colburn, and Irish Surf tracking him throughout, Tiz the Truth continued to lead through moderate fractions of :48.39 and 1:12.80.

Then -- in the blink of an eye -- Tiz the Truth was five lengths in front.

Under a hand ride from Stevens, Tiz the Truth blazed the seventh furlong in a practically unheard of :11.61 seconds, giving him a five-length advantage with just an eighth of a mile to go. For an encore, he ran the final furlong in an equally jaw-dropping :11.87 seconds to hit the wire in 1:36.28, a very sharp time indeed given the moderate early pace!

Misdeed edged Spirited Touch for second, while Colburn and Irish Surf completed the order of finish.

Tiz the Truth is owned by Mercedes Stables and is a son of Tiznow out of the French Deputy mare Truly Blessed.

-Keelerman

Verrazano romps in Gulfstream allowance race

1-5 favorite Verrazano brought his record to an unbeaten 2-for-2 when he drew off to win a one-mile allowance race on Saturday at Gulfstream Park by a spectacular 16 1/4 lengths, stamping himself as a highly promising Kentucky Derby contender in the process.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Verrazano got off to a good start and quickly settled into second place as Gunderman led the way through fractions of :22.94 and :45.45 seconds. Eton Blue, Mr d'Oro, and Rossmoyne trailed the compact field.

Rounding the turn, Verrazano moved up to take command of the lead, running three-quarters of a mile in a very quick 1:09.98 in order to do so. And then just like, the race was over. Under a mere hand ride from Velazquez, Verrazano suddenly powered away from the rest of the field, pouring on speed throughout the homestretch to reach the finish line in the exceptional time of 1:34.80 seconds.

Eton Blue edged Gunderman by a neck for second, while Rossmoyne and Mr. d'Oro completed the order of  finish.

Verrazano is a son of More Than Ready out of Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway. Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Let's Go Stable, Verrazano has now earned $51,300 and appears bound for a graded stakes race.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-2-13

With three official Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this afternoon, as well as a host of other fascinating races, this weekend promises to be one of the most exciting thus far along the Triple Crown trail. As there is a lot to discuss, we won't waste time with an extensive introduction. Let's just start handicapping!

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)

1 1/16th miles on the Santa Anita main track

Only four horses have been entered in the second leg of California's Derby prep race schedule, meaning that every entrant is guaranteed to earn at least one Kentucky Derby qualification point.

The morning line favorite at 3-5 is Flashback, a highly promising Bob Baffert-trained son of Tapit. The colt has only run once, breaking his maiden in sharp fashion going seven furlongs on December 8th. Being that this will be both his first start on dirt and his first around two turns, one could question whether his 3-5 odds are two low. However, given that he is also the lone front-runner on a track that is kind to speed, the stretch-out and step up in class shouldn't prove much of an issue.

Baffert also trains the second choice on the morning line, 5-2 shot Den's Legacy. Winner of the Generous Stakes (gr. III) on turf last fall, he enters the Lewis off of a third-place finish in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and a runner-up effort in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). Give him some credit -- this horse is extremely versatile, and has decent tactical speed and a decent finishing kick. But he probably lacks the speed to contend with Flashback early, and may not have quite the same late run as He's Had Enough. If he is to win this race, he's going to have to time his challenge just right.

One of the more intriguing horses in the race is He's Had Enough, who races for the same connections as I'll Have Another, who won this race last year en route to victory in the Kentucky Derby. He is a rather inconsistent colt, finishing well back in three of his four stakes races, but the one time he ran on dirt, he was beaten just a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) -- a stellar performance indeed! Apparently, he's pretty lazy in the mornings, and it's difficult to get good works into him, but he went six furlongs in 1:10 4/5 on January 25th, which seems to say that he's coming into this race in good form.

Rounding out the field is Little Jerry, a son of Candy Ride trained by Richard Baltas. In his first start, he rallied from last to win a one-mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park by a neck, defeating subsequent winners Curly Top and Persuasive Paul. In his only start since then, he finished eighth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) while failing to mount a challenge of any kind. It's hard to say exactly why he performed so poorly, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt and assume that he will rebound today.

Now, as much as I like Flashback, and as good as I think he'll be further down the road, I'm going to side with He's Had Enough, in hopes that he will relish the return to dirt and return to his Breeders' Cup Juvenile form. That said, I can see any one of these four horses winning, and this is definitely one of those races that is best enjoyed for the sport of it, rather than as a handicapping challenge.

Selections: He's Had Enough, Flashback, Little Jerry

Withers Stakes (gr. III)

1 1/16th miles on the Aqueduct main track

This race marks the stakes debut of Revolutionary, Todd Pletcher's highly promising maiden winner that earned a Beyer speed figure of 102 in late December at Aqueduct. A well-bred son of War Pass, anything near a repeat of his maiden score should put Revolutionary in the winner's circle this afternoon.

However, should Revolutionary bounce a bit off of that huge effort, there are plenty of other colts that could steal the victory. First and foremost in my mind is Long River, a son of A.P. Indy out of the 2006 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) winner Round Pond. Owned by Darley Stable and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the colt broke his maiden third-time out in sharp fashion, then finished an even fourth in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) here at Aqueduct last month. However, he bled just a bit that day, so the additional of Lasix for today's race should greatly help his chances. And don't forget that his jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., has been on a real hot streak as of late.

Siete de Oros, beaten just a head in the Jerome, has proven to be a fairly consistent colt, and deserves respect for that reason alone. Amerigo Vespucci, third in the Jerome, made a nice middle move in that race before flattening out. It was a good effort for his first time around two turns, and improvement is definitely possible today for the son of Henrythenavigator. Escapefromreality has shown a great deal of talent sprinting, but is stretching out beyond six furlongs for the first time and doesn't have the strongest of route pedigree. Smooth Bert won the Damon Runyon Stakes last time out, but his recent workouts have been a bit on the slow side, and it's worth noting that both of his victories have come over wet, sealed tracks. Valid, a sharp maiden winner last time out, will run as a coupled entry with Long River and possesses a good finishing kick. Champion Boy has only run once, finishing third in a six-furlong maiden special weight on January 20th, and while he may improve with additional distance, it's hard to back a maiden in a race like this.

Selections: Revolutionary, Long River, Siete de Oros

Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)

1 1/16th miles on the Tampa Bay Downs main track

(Note: At the time of writing, Northern Lion has been scratched.)

This is a fairly deep and evenly-matched field, but Dynamic Sky looks like a very deserving favorite. Last month, he rallied for a convincing victory in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes, despite encountering a great deal of traffic at the top of the stretch. Trained by Mark Casse, he should only improve with the added distance, and should be even sharper than he was for the Pasco. I find it difficult to envision him not finishing in the exacta.

Speak Logistics also looks like a nice colt, and if anyone can beat Dynamic Sky, it's probably him. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr. -- who won the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) last week with Itsmyluckyday -- Speak Logistics won the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes with a Beyer speed figure of 90 last October, then finished just a half-length behind Dynamic Sky when seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). He hasn't raced since then, but he's training very sharply and appears ready to turn in a good effort.

My Name is Michael finished second in the Display Stakes at Woodbine last fall, stamping himself as a colt of fine quality, and has since been transferred to the barn of Bill Mott. He's training nicely for his dirt debut, and will have top jockey Joel Rosario in the saddle, so all signs seem to indicate that he's sitting on a good effort.

Divine Ambition finished third to Dynamic Sky in the Pasco after setting the pace, and while on the surface he doesn't appear to be the type that would appreciate the additional distance, the possibility exists that he could use his great speed to set a slow pace and hang on late.

On the other hand, that is probably the strategy that Falling Sky will attempt to employ. The winner of a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on December 15th, Falling Sky also has a great deal of early speed, and will likely use it to try and wire the race. Should he and Divine Ambition hook up in a speed duel, it will likely compromise the chances of both. On the other hand, if they both settle down and set a slow pace together, they could both have a great deal left in the tank for the stretch run -- perhaps even enough to hold off the favorites.

We won't go into detail on every horse in this race, for this post is getting long already, but let's take a moment to briefly mention Midnite Poppa. Trained by Nick Zito, the son of Unbridled's Song broke his maiden nicely here at Tampa on December 26th, and while he will have to overcome breaking from the far outside post position today, he seems to be a talented enough runner, and he will have top jockey Jose Lezcano in the saddle.

Selection: Dynamic Sky, Speak Logistics, Falling Sky

Other Races of Note

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 5: Hugely impressive debut winner Verrazano will attempt to stretch his speed to a mile in this allowance optional claiming race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of More Than Ready looks poised to join the Derby trail with another good performance. Gunderman, runner-up to Bradester in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on New Year's Day, and Eton Blue, a narrow maiden winner trained by Nick Zito, look like the next-best horses in the race, but it's difficult to envision Verrazano losing this afternoon.

Race 8: Air Squadron, who finished a troubled third to Eton Blue in a recent one-mile maiden special weight, looks like the one to beat in today's nearly identical race. Todd Pletcher's Doherty deserves respect off of a runner-up effort to Looking Cool in a race similar to this one, but doesn't look quite as good as Air Squadron.

Race 10: The nearly unbeaten Merit Man is the morning line favorite in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II), but I am intrigued by 8-1 shot Honorable Dillon, who rallied fast to finish second in a recent 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race here at Gulfstream. Forty Tales, sharp winner of an allowance at Parx Racing, should also be right in contention.

At Santa Anita Park . . .

Race 1: This one-mile maiden special weight has drawn a field of five, led by Bob Baffert's Tiz the Truth, who was beaten just a head by the highly-regarded Demonic last month. Colburn, late-running fourth to the good colts Curly Top and Footbridge in a recent maiden special weight, should be coming on fast at the finish.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-1-13

Tomorrow marks a very important day along the Triple Crown trail, with three official Kentucky Derby prep races on the schedule, as well as a multitude of other intriguing races. But before we delve into those races -- which we will be doing tomorrow -- here are a variety of thoughts that have been running through my head during the last week or so:

* Give Itsmyluckyday a ton of credit for his victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). He flashed enough early speed to avoid getting caught too wide on the first turn, then wore down the champion Shanghai Bobby to win in track record time. While he doesn't have the strongest of ten-furlong pedigrees, he's certainly not bred to be a sprinter either, and his recent performances give the impression that he'll run all day. Shanghai Bobby also ran very well -- the rail might not have been the place to be last Saturday, and those were very honest fractions he set. Given that it was his first start since the Breeders' Cup, I would think that a much-improved effort is possible next time out.

* Determining the exact reason why Dewey Square was beaten 28 1/2 lengths in the Holy Bull may be impossible -- it was probably a combination of things, including a dislike for getting dirt kicked in his face for the first time. But while it might be tempting to forget about him as a Derby contender, let us recall that his trainer, Dale Romans, was able to save the day with 2011 Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford after that colt was beaten 23 1/2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth.

* A quick look back at the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile reveals that only one runner, Dynamic Sky, has gone on to win a race. Dynamic Sky, of course, won the Pasco Stakes last month at Tampa Bay Downs and will look to continue his success at Tampa in Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III). However, it might be wise to keep an eye on Speak Logistics, who was beaten just a half-length by Dynamic Sky in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who sent out Itsmyluckyday to win the Holy Bull last week, Speak Logistics has been training sharply and will have Tampa's leading rider Angel Serpa aboard.

* It's beginning to sound as though Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) winner Uncaptured is playing catch-up along the Derby trail . . . a couple of foot issues have kept him out of serious training for many weeks, and while trainer Mark Casse does have the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) tentatively penciled in as Uncaptured's final Derby prep, his first race back remains undetermined. The Rushaway Stakes and the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) are options.

* Bob Baffert sent out a pair of good colts yesterday afternoon in Super Ninety Nine and Code West, who ran 1-2 in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita. After settling back in second and third, respectively, for the opening half-mile, Super Ninety Nine and Code West both made bids on the outside of front-running Appealing Tale, with Super Ninety Nine getting the jump on his stablemate and holding him off easily to win by 3 1/4 lengths in the very sharp time of 1:35.11. For Super Ninety Nine, it was a dramatically better performance than the one he turned in on December 28th, when he was a dull fourth behind Distinctiv Passion in a six-furlong allowance sprint. For Code West, it was a very encouraging effort for his first start since October, and he should only get better with additional distance.

* Not that this really means anything, but every horse entered in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) is guaranteed to earn a qualification point toward the Kentucky Derby. I'm surprised more didn't enter for that reason alone -- but then again, maybe running fourth and earning one point just isn't worth the trouble.

* That was quite a debut performance from Big Lute this afternoon at Oaklawn. The son of Midnight Lute settled into the three-path early on before taking command around the turn and drawing off powerfully to win by 4 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock for six furlongs in the quick time of 1:10.43 seconds. Trained by Steve Hobby, Big Lute looks bound for a stakes race.

* There hasn't been a lot of talk about him, but Tour Guide has been quietly compiling a very good record at tracks across the country. Feast your eyes on these statistics: He finished second in his debut at Monmouth Park, then broke his maiden there a few weeks later. Then he ran fifth in the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park. Then he shipped to Churchill Downs and won an allowance optional claiming race. Then he went down to Fair Grounds and took the Sugar Bowl Stakes. Most recently, he shipped to Sam Houston Race Park in Texas and won the seven-furlong Allen's Landing Stakes by a half-length. Hard to say if he wants to go any further than that, but he'll get a chance to stretch out in either the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) or Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) later this month.

* Treasury Bill stamped himself as a colt to watch on January 27th when he rallied from out of the clouds to win a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by 1 1/4 lengths. Trailing by eleven lengths after the opening quarter, and by 7 1/2 with just five-sixteenths of a mile to go, Treasury Bill gobbled up ground in the homestretch like he'd joined the race at the quarter pole and finished up under a long hold late. Given his pedigree, additional distance should not be an issue.

* Another promising Santa Anita maiden winner was Saticoy, who flashed breathtaking speed to win a six-furlong maiden special weight by 4 1/4 lengths last Saturday. With Julien Leparoux aboard, the Gary Mandella-trainee blazed through fractions of :21.50 and :44.16 en route to a final clocking of 1:08.55 seconds. Storm Fighter, from the barn of Bruce Headley, tracked the pace throughout and wound up clearly second best in a performance that suggests he'll be ready to break his own maiden next time out.

* I was highly disappointed by Mountain Eagle's performance in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Coming off of a sharp maiden victory, I was expecting a breakthrough performance that would launch him en route to a major Derby prep. Unfortunately, he never really fired, giving way readily to be beaten 7 1/2 lengths after tracking a slow early pace. In the meantime, Orb overcame a slightly troubled trip to rally for victory, but he was clearly tiring at the finish and ran the final eighth in a slow :13.36 seconds. However, it's hard to say what to make of that, since he had just run the previous quarter mile in a strong :24 flat.

* Cerro's victory in the other division of Orb's allowance race says a lot about the quality of Bradester and Gunderman, both of whom beat him soundly in different allowance race on January 1st. But in my opinion Cerro may be better than both of them, for he was running against a track bias when beaten on New Year's Day. On a different note, it was encouraging to see Cerro flash more early speed last Saturday, as the ability to go to the lead or take back and wait will be a useful asset further down the road.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-1-13

1. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

He inherits the top spot due to the disappointing effort from Dewey Square in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). Normandy Invasion continues to turn in easy half-mile works at Palm Meadows in preparation for the Risen Star, but with that race still several weeks off, it's very possible that some other colt could step up and displace him from my top spot before then.

2. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

His victory in the Holy Bull Stakes proves to me that he's the real deal. Not only did he flash a great deal of tactical speed, he also showed the ability to finish powerfully going two turns. The fact that he broke the track record in the process was icing on the cake.

3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

The juvenile champion was hardly disgraced in finishing second in the Holy Bull, given that he probably broke the track record as well in defeat. From a Beyer speed figure perspective, it was the best race of his career by a substantial margin. Some will say the Holy Bull proves he can't get ten furlongs, but I don't see it that way at all -- he was pulling away powerfully from the rest of the field, and even the best of stayers can lose.

4. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher

He's up to five furlongs in his training, having gone that distance in an easy 1:01.90 on January 27th, but he clearly has a ways to go yet before returning to the races.

5. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse

Due to a very unfortunate oversight, Dynamic Sky has been accidentally excluded from my recent Derby lists, despite his eye-catching victory in the Pasco Stakes last month. Perhaps ranking him #5 is a bit high, but given the way he finished in the Pasco, coupled with his grade I form as a juvenile, I think he warrants it. We'll learn more about him on Saturday, when he starts as the favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs.

6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

Now I'm stumped. Here is War Academy, a sharp debut winner trained by Bob Baffert that has been breezing half-miles on the main track. Then, out of the blue, he works five furlongs on . . . turf? Yes, turf. Now, there's enough turf in his pedigree to suggest that War Academy could prove a very good runner over the grass, but I must admit I'm surprised to see him breeze over it. I'm starting to wonder if it's the Kentucky Derby that this colt is pointing toward . . . being owned by Michael Tabor, John Magnier, and Derrick Smith, perhaps the English Derby is in War Academy's future! :)

7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Turned in his second work of the year on January 27th, going a half-mile in a rather sharp :48.09 seconds. It was a major step forward off of his previous breeze -- a half-mile in :50.90 -- which is good news, since he's scheduled to make his three-year-old debut on February 23rd.

8. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Like Violence, he's really starting to pick up his training, going a half-mile at Palm Meadows in :47.88 on January 27th, the third-fastest of the morning at that distance. Furthermore, it was nearly four seconds quicker than his work one week earlier.

9. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

LeComte winner is already back on the work tab, having gone four furlongs in :49.60 at Oaklawn on January 27th. There's been a lot of talk about his front-running style possibly being a detriment -- many feel he'll have to learn to rate in order to be a factor further down the road -- but I personally feel that he could be one of those rare types that can go to the front and just keep on going, grinding away opponents with never-ceasing speed and stamina. Please note how much his pedigree resembles that of Paynter.

10. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Gets a big test on Saturday when he starts as the projected heavy favorite in the Withers Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct, but anything close to the performance he showcased when breaking his maiden should get the job done. The lone concern is that he has had numerous starting gate issues in the past, and a poor start from post position three could severely compromise his chances. But assuming he gets off okay, it appears to be his race to win.

11. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

I haven't heard anything about his next-race plans, but a race in late February would seem to suit his schedule . . . the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star, both of which fall on the 23rd, seem like logical options, especially the latter since Pletcher is already pointing Violence to the Fountain of Youth.

12. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

He will make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on Saturday, a race won by I'll Have Another last year. It's a pretty big step up in class off of one seven-furlong maiden race, but he'll only be facing three rivals, and he looks like the lone front-runner, so he should get a fairly easy trip. The question is simply whether or not he is good enough.

13. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans

Some will be surprised that I still have Dewey Square ranked this high following his dismal Holy Bull performance, but I think the key to interpreting his effort was that it was just too bad to be believed. If he had made a decent challenge and then tired to be beaten ten or twelve lengths, I would accept it at face value and conclude he wasn't good enough. But to be beaten nearly thirty lengths says to me that something went wrong. Perhaps he didn't care for getting dirt kicked in his face for the first time. But whatever the reason, let us recall that 2011 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) winner Shackleford was able to rebound from a similarly bad effort in the 2011 Fountain of Youth (gr. II), so perhaps Romans can pull off a similar achievement with Dewey Square.

14. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin

Prior to last Saturday, Transparent was just an ordinary colt that had turned in a couple of decent efforts without ever finding the winner's circle. But on Saturday, he proved to the world that he is something special indeed when he won a two-turn maiden special weight at Aqueduct by nearly six lengths -- after being carried out fourteen or fifteen paths wide (no, that is not a typo!) when a fellow runner bolted entering the backstretch. Despite this horrendous trip, Transparent worked his way back toward the inner rail, and then proceeded to win the race as though nothing had happened. This well-bred colt seems to be finally figuring himself out, and it's very possible that more improvement is still to come.

15. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion

Flashed a new dimension in winning a nine-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream on Saturday, going to the lead and holding off all challenges to win in fairly decisive fashion. It was a large step forward off of his third-place finish in a similar race on New Year's Day, and this Irish-bred colt should only get better. It sounds as though a run in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) on turf could be next, followed by a start in the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. II) at Turfway Park.

16. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill

The Robert B. Lewis should tell us a lot about this colt. As inconsistent as he has been, the fact of the matter remains that his lone effort on dirt thus far resulted in a head defeat to Shanghai Bobby in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Forget his dismal efforts on turf and synthetic tracks -- if a return to dirt in the Lewis results in another Breeders' Cup-caliber performance, then He's Had Enough is going to be moving way up on just about everyone's Derby lists.

17. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Sham Stakes winner wasn't entered in the Robert B. Lewis and has only breezed once since then, which suggests that the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn on February 18th is a possible goal.

18. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek

Grabbed a quarter in the Holy Bull and raced greenly thereafter, so it's probably wise to forgive his distant defeat. Trainer Kenny McPeek has a number of changes planned for his next start, including the addition of blinkers. He also feels that a longer homestretch will help, so don't be surprised if Frac Daddy shows up at Fair Grounds sometime this winter.

19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen

He's breezed twice since his maiden victory, most recently clocking five-eighths in 1:03 on January 28th. I haven't heard anything in regards to where he will run next, but being that he's based in Louisiana, the Risen Star or the Southwest are probably on the radar.

20. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Oxbow's stablemate and fellow Derby prep race winner breezed a half-mile in :48.80 on the last day of January at Oaklawn Park, a very sharp work that was the second-fastest of the morning at that distance.

21. Tiz a Minister (Ministers Wild Cat - Tiz a Mistress, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by Paul Aguirre

I decided to extend this list to twenty-one horses again in order to include this highly promising colt who rallied from absolutely out of the clouds to win the California Breeders Champion Stakes at Santa Anita. Dead-last early on, he unleashed a simply tremendous rally rounding the far turn, gobbling up ground at an unprecedented rate to win in decisive fashion. I personally hand-timed his last-half mile in about :47 2/5 seconds, with splits of :11 2/5, :23 1/5, and :35 1/5. Maybe it was the result of the wet track, but any horse that can rally like that deserves a great deal of respect!

*****

There are several other notable colts entered to race this weekend, and big performances by any of them could launch them into my top twenty, or even my top ten. Among the ones I'm looking forward to watching most are Long River, who is entered in the Wither Stakes; Verrazano, who will contest an allowance race at Gulfstream Park; Forty Tales, an unbeaten Todd Pletcher-trained colt that is entered in the Hutcheson Stakes; Air Squadron, who will attempt to break his maiden at Gulfstream on Saturday; Tiz the Truth, who will be trying to do the same at Santa Anita; and Den's Legacy, runner-up in the Sham and an entrant in the Robert B. Lewis.

On a side note, you may have noticed that both Power Broker and Titletown Five have been removed from my top twenty. The reason is that these colts have not turned in works this year, and they are running out of time to get ready for the Derby. Should they return to the work tab within the next week or two, I will probably add them back in.

-Keelerman