TALES FROM THE PAST ---- The 1980 Eclipse Awards Debate

As many of you likely know, the Eclipse award ceremony is rapidly approaching --- it's less than three weeks away. With all of the debate and excitement over Horse of the Year, I thought it would be fun to "go back in time" to 1980, where there was another very tough decision in the Eclipse award voting. The argument was not over who would be Horse of the Year. (That honor went to Spectacular Bid, who went undefeated that year with nine brilliant victories.) Rather, the debate was over the champion three-year-old filly honors. Who would win: Genuine Risk or Bold 'n Determined?

Genuine Risk, a tough-as-nails daughter of Exclusive Native, had been a fine two-year-old, going undefeated in four starts while sweeping to victory in both the grade III Tempted Stakes and the grade II Demoiselle Stakes. Trained by Leroy Jolley, she began the 1980 season by winning a seven-furlong allowance race by 2 1/2 lengths as the odds-on favorite. Her second start, in a $35,000 handicap race, yielded similar results, as she took the lead after the opening quarter mile and won the one-mile event with ease.

A daring attempt to win the Wood Memorial against colts brought her undefeated streak to a conclusion, as she ran third behind Plugged Nickle, beaten 1 1/2 lengths. However, this performance was strong enough to warrant a start in the Kentucky Derby, where she was sent off at 13-1. The favorite, Rockhill Native, had been the 1979 Champion juvenile male based off of impressive victories in the Hopeful, Sapling, and Futurity Stakes (both grade I) as well a strong second in the Champagne Stakes. He was coming into the Kentucky Derby off of a sharp victory in the Blue Grass Stakes and appeared to be ready for a prime performance. Plugged Nickle was the second choice.

Despite the quality competition she was facing, Genuine Risk rallied from off the pace to score by a length, becoming the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby since Regret in 1915. She completed the ten-furlong event in 2:02 flat, earning her the status of favorite in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.

In a race that will forever be marred by controversy, the Santa Anita Derby winner Codex floated the filly wide on the final turn, putting a damper on her late run. Although Codex did prove his dominance by drawing off to a nearly five-length win, many felt that Genuine Risk's chances had been destroyed by Codex. However, the stewards allowed the results to stand, and Codex entered the history books as the winner of the 1980 Preakness Stakes. Although far behind Codex, Genuine Risk did place second.

The Belmont Stakes was next on the filly's agenda. Sent off at 5-1, she had a narrow lead at the eighth pole but relented to the rally of Temperance Hill, who stormed past to win by two lengths at the incredible odds of 53-1. However, he proved later that he was truly a good horse, as he swept to victories in the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Super Derby en route to honors as the Champion three year old male. Genuine Risk once again finished second, completing a remarkable Triple Crown run that may never again be matched by a filly.

Understandably, Genuine Risk earned a lengthy rest following the Belmont Stakes, returning to the races in September to run in the Maskette Stakes, a grade I races for fillies and mares. Sent off as the favorite, she held the lead at the eighth pole but was passed in deep stretch by Bold 'n Determined, from whom she was receiving four pounds. A nose victory in the Ruffian Handicap (gr. I) completed Genuine Risk's year.

This brings us to the 1980 season of Bold 'n Determined. A brilliant daughter of Bold and Brave who won stakes races at distances from six furlongs to a mile and a half, she lost only four races in her entire career, which comprised of twenty races. Like Genuine Risk, she went undefeated as a juvenile, culminating with a three-length victory in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. II). Trained by Neil Drysdale, she began 1980 by winning the Pasadena Stakes in impressive fashion. However, her winning ways were brought to a conclusion in the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes, where she rallied from far off the pace to finish fourth, beaten only two lengths.

Then came one of the most remarkable campaigns ever achieved by a sophomore filly.

A victory in the Santa Susana Stakes (gr. I) was first on the agenda. Rallying from just off the pace, she got up in the nick of time to win by a half-length in a sharp 1:41 1/5 for the mile and a sixteenth. Sent off as the favorite in the grade I Fantasy Stakes, she dominated with ease, winning by over two lengths as the favorite.

In the Kentucky Oaks one month later, Bold 'n Determined had to drive to the finish but won the historical race by a length and a half over Mitey Lively as the odds-on favorite. This came the day before Genuine Risk won the Kentucky Derby.

Sent off at .40-1 in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I), Bold 'n Determined set a fast pace of :44 4/5 for the half mile before drawing off to win the one-mile event by just under three lengths, once again defeating Mitey Lively. A head loss to Sugar and Spice in the Mother Goose Stakes raised her odds up just a tad in the Coaching Club American Oaks, where she would try running a mile and a half for the first time. In a driving finish, the game filly got her head home first in a three way photo finish, claiming yet another grade I victory.

This performance should have earned her favorite status in the grade I Maskette Stakes against older fillies and mares, but the presence of Genuine Risk drove her odds up to 10-1. In a dramatic stretch duel, Bold 'n Determined out fought the Kentucky Derby winner in the final strides to win by a desperate head while spotting Genuine Risk four pounds. Such a brilliant victory drove her odds down to 1-10 in an allowance race going seven furlongs at Keeneland, and she ran like a 1-10 shot should, winning by nearly seven lengths. Sent off at .30-1 in Keeneland's Spinster Stakes (gr. I) nine days later, she once again engaged in a thrilling stretch duel, this timing winning by a neck over Love Sign.

It seemed like there was nothing that the wonder filly couldn't do. However, an attempt at winning on turf in the Yellow Ribbon Invitational Stakes (gr. I) ended in a dismal fourth place finish, beaten five lengths by Kilijaro, who completed the ten-furlong event in a brilliant 1:59 1/5.

Let us now examine the 1980 campaigns of Genuine Risk and Bold 'n Determined in chart form. . .

GENUINE RISK

1st $17,000 allowance race
1st $35,000 handicap race
3rd Wood Memorial (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
2nd Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Maskette Stakes (gr. I)
1st Ruffian Handicap (gr. I)

BOLD 'N DETERMINED

1st Pasadena Stakes
4th Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II)
1st Santa Susana Stakes (gr. I)
1st Fantasy Stakes (gr. I)
1st Kentucky Oaks (gr. I)
1st Acorn Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I)
1st Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I)
1st Maskette Stakes (gr. I)
1st $29,750 allowance race
1st Spinster Stakes (gr. I)
4th Yellow Ribbon Stakes (gr. I)

Bold 'n Determined made twelve starts. Genuine Risk made eight. Bold 'n Determined lost three races. Genuine Risk lost four. Bold 'n Determined won seven grade I races. Genuine Risk won two. Both competed at five different racetracks. If Genuine Risk had not won the Kentucky Derby, she would have had no chance at winning the Eclipse award.

Yet, based on the strength of her Triple Crown campaign, Genuine Risk received the Eclipse award.

It's hard to say for sure who I would have voted for had I been an Eclipse award voter in 1980. It's a very tough decision. At the time, Genuine Risk was only the second filly to win the Kentucky Derby, and her Preakness and Belmont Stakes performances were admirable. But I feel that Bold 'n Determined's seven grade I races would have earned my vote.

Who would you have voted for?

-Keelerman

THE KEELERMAN HANDICAPS ---- 2010

I'm sure that many of you have heard of and looked at the Experimental Free Handicaps, released every year by the Jockey Club. A fascinating chart, one over which racing fans could argue for hours, it comprises two charts containing the names of all of the best juveniles from the previous year. On the first chart are the names of all the best males; on the other chart are the names of all the best females. The horses on the list are given a weight assignment for a hypothetical mile and a sixteenth handicap race, just like you would do for a real handicap. For example, last year, Lookin at Lucky and Vale of York, the 1-2 finishers in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, were assigned the standard high weight of 126 pounds, while Jackson Bend, winner of several stakes races in Florida, was assigned 116 pounds. Therefore, the people in charge of compiling the list felt that Lookin at Lucky was ten pounds better than Jackson Bend at that time.

When a juvenile is considered to be better than usual, such as War Pass was in 2007, they get assigned a higher-than-standard number. War Pass received 127 pounds on the 2007 Experimental Free Handicap. The record for the highest weight assignment goes to Count Fleet, who was given a massive 132 pounds in 1942.

I have always been fascinated by this list, which got me to thinking: Why don't I compile a similar list?

Finding no reason not to, I decided to undertake the monumental but fun task of handicapping all of the best horses from 2010. But I wouldn't stop at the juveniles! I would continue on and compile handicaps for the three year olds and the older horses! It wouldn't take all that long, and it sure would look impressive when I'm done!

Of course, reality soon set in. For example, when I sat down to compile a handicap for the best three year old fillies, I realized that I had no idea as to how to go about it. At what distance would this hypothetical race be? And tougher still, how do you compare a sprinting filly like Champagne d'Oro to the brilliant 9-10 furlong filly Blind Luck?

It soon became apparent that this task is considerably harder than it looks. However, I did my best and compiled several charts which I hope you will enjoy. Each list contains roughly ten horses; I go over that limit only to include horses involved in ties, as you will see below. Also, please note that these imaginary races are being run on an imaginary "super surface" upon which dirt, turf, and synthetic runners can run their best races. :-)

KEELERMAN HANDICAP FOR TWO-YEAR-OLD MALES
A hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles
Standard weight: 126 pounds

Weight (in pounds)/Horse

128 Uncle Mo
123 Boys at Tosconova
123 To Honor and Serve
121 Comma to the Top
120 Brethren
120 Jaycito
119 Clubhouse Ride
119 Gourmet Dinner
119 Pluck
119 Rogue Romance
119 Santiva
119 The Factor

KEELERMAN HANDICAP FOR TWO-YEAR-OLD FEMALES
A hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles
Standard weight: 123 pounds

Weight (in pounds)/Horse

123 Awesome Feather
122 Turbulent Descent
121 A Z Warrior
121 R Heat Lightning
120 Kathmanblu
119 Delightful Mary
119 Dixie City
118 More Than Real
118 Rigoletta
118 Wickedly Perfect
118 Winter Memories

KEELERMAN HANDICAP FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD MALES
A hypothetical race at 1 1/8 miles
Standard weight: 126 pounds

Weight (in pounds)/Horse

126 Lookin at Lucky
125 Eskendereya
123 Afleet Express
123 Fly Down
123 Super Saver
122 First Dude
120 Paddy O'Prado
119 Concord Point
119 Drosselmeyer
119 Morning Line
119 Sidney's Candy
119 Twirling Candy

(Honorable mentions go out to Discreetly Mine, Prince Will I Am, and Smiling Tiger. All three are brilliant colts, but would not relish the nine furlongs of this hypothetical race. If the race was 1 1/2 miles or longer, I would put Prince Will I Am on top. If the distance was six furlongs, Discreetly Mine and Smiling Tiger would sit 1-2.)

KEELERMAN HANDICAP FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD FEMALES
A hypothetical race at 1 1/8 miles
Standard weight: 123 pounds

Weight (in pounds)/Horse

123 Blind Luck
122 Evening Jewel
122 Havre de Grace
120 Devil May Care
118 Harmonious
118 No Such Word
118 Switch
117 Franny Freud
117 It's Tea time
116 Amen Hallelujah
116 Champagne d'Oro

(An honorable mention goes out to Rose Catherine, a brilliant turf sprinter who would have no chance at a nine-furlong dirt race but would be at the top of the list if running in her type of race.)

KEELERMAN HANDICAP FOR MALES FOUR-YEARS-OLD AND UP
A hypothetical race at 1 1/8 miles
Standard weight: 126 pounds

Weight (in pounds)/Horse

127 Blame
126 Quality Road
124 Gio Ponti
121 Haynesfield
121 Richard's Kid
121 Successful Dan
120 Giant Oak
120 Redding Colliery
119 Court Vision
119 Misremembered
119 Rail Trip

KEELERMAN HANDICAP FOR FEMALES FOUR-YEARS-OLD AND UP
A hypothetical race at 1 1/8 miles
Standard weight: 123 pounds

Weight (in pounds)/Horse

129 Zenyatta
125 Goldikova
123 Unrivaled Belle
123 Life at Ten
122 Rachel Alexandra
122 St. Trinians
120 Proviso
120 Shared Account
120 Tuscan Evening
118 Persistently
118 Malibu Prayer

(This was a very tough list to create, and the distance plays an important role. At a solid mile, Goldikova would defeat everyone in this field, including Zenyatta. However, going nine furlongs or farther, I do believe that Zenyatta would be able to rally with speed to spare.)

Did I forget anyone? Do you have any thoughts regarding my weight assignments? If so, feel free to leave a comment!

-Keelerman

Guest blog at BloodHorse.com

One more quick note... I am happy to say that I was a guest blogger today on Jason Shandler's "Triple Crown Talk" blog at BloodHorse.com.

Click here to read my post!

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- December 24th, 2010

(Here is the Top Twenty that I promised earlier this week. I had intended to include my typical thoughts on each horse, but I was unable to find time to do so admist all of my Christmas activities. But I didn't want to break my promise, so here are my current Top Twenty as of December 24th, without my usual descriptions. Enjoy, and Merry Christmas!)


1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott

2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher

3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller

4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy

5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher

6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo

7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow

8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert

9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek

10. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge

11. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher

12. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho

13. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype

14. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen

15. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
16. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown

17. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito

18. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans

19. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen

20. Read the Contract - Trained by Richard Violette



-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- December 21st, 2010

(Note: This will be my last Triple Crown Countdown of the year. I am taking a break from posting during Christmas and will resume in early January. I will, however, post a Top Twenty within the next day or so.)

RACE RESULTS

CashCall Futurity

On Saturday at Hollywood Park, favored Comma to the Top made 5-2 look like a steal.

On Saturday at Hollywood Park, favored Comma to the Top turned in one of the most impressive performances by a juvenile this year.

On a track that has never been kind to front runners, Comma to the Top, under Corey Nakatani, decided to try and beat the bias by going to the front. Despite breaking from the far outside, Comma to the Top had enough speed to challenge High Level Jeff for the early lead. As they entered the first turn, High Level Jeff held a small advantage over the favorite. Together, they ran a blazing :23 4/5 opening quarter mile. J P's Gusto was right behind them, with Rustler Hustler and Riveting Reason not far back either. Clubhouse Ride had to steady on the first turn and was ninth early on, with only longshot Ronin Dax behind him.

As impressive as the first quarter mile was, the second was even more so. With High Level Jeff still clinging to a narrow advantage, he and Comma to the Top ran their second quarter mile in :23 3/5, with only a half-length separating them. They had run a half mile in :47 2/5 with some quality closers behind them.

But it was at this point in the race that Comma to the Top put the field away. Following three quarters of a mile in 1:11 4/5, Comma to the Top and Nakatani made their move. In the blink of an eye, they had opened up a three length lead, which turned into six as the barreled down the homestretch. J P's Gusto, who had dropped back to seventh with five-sixteenths to run, rallied from nowhere on the far outside to reach contention but fell a good two lengths short of catching the favorite. In an amazing performance, Clubhouse Ride rallied strongly enough to finish third despite the traffic issues on the first turn. Gourmet Dinner, the second choice, finished fourth after making a mild move on the far turn.

It took :7 1/5 seconds to run that last sixteenth of a mile. But the fact that Comma to the Top was able to wire the race after setting those fractions says a lot for his ability. On a side note, High Level Jeff, who attempted to stay with Comma early, faded to finish last.

Here are the full results. . .

1 Comma to the Top
2 J P's Gusto
3 Clubhouse Ride
4 Gourmet Dinner
5 Riveting Reason
6 Rustler Hustler
7 Slammer Time
8 Ronin Dax
9 Industry Leader
10 High Level Jeff
Here were my picks. . .

1 Comma to the Top
2 J P's Gusto
3 Industry Leader
4 Clubhouse Ride
5 Gourmet Dinner
6 Riveting Reasons
7 Rustler Hustler
8 Slammer Time
9 High Level Jeff
10 Ronin Dax

Except for Industry Leader, I wasn't too far off!

Other Race Results

Things went as expected in the Letellier Memorial Stakes for two-year-old fillies at Fair Grounds. In the six furlong event, favored Fastation made a bold run from eight lengths back to score by three and a half lengths in 1:11.19. Fiscal Policy, the 5-1 fourth choice, also rallied strongly but was no match for the winner. Second choice Street Storm came from ten lengths back after the first quarter mile to finish third, although soundly beaten. Dimanche Pouliche never threatened while coming from last to snatch fourth. Big Sweets opened up a four length lead in the early stages of the race but could not sustain it, ending up fifth. Unbridled Praise, at 3-1 chased the pace but tired to finish last.

The winner, trained by Steven Asmussen, has now won five consecutive races. She was ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. I would not be surprised to see her traveling along the Kentucky Oaks trail next spring. Perhaps the Silverbulletday Stakes is next on her agenda.

In the Sugar Bowl Stakes, also a six furlong race for juveniles, there was a very mild upset. Joe Hollywood, the favorite at .90-1, was sent right to the lead in the four horse race and rattled off fractions of :22 1/5 and :46 flat while being pressed by Hydro Power. Archarcharch, at even money, was racing in third with B G Suavecito trailing the field.

As they turned for home, Archarcharch made his bid for the lead. He dueled with Joe Hollywood down the stretch and it appeared for a moment like Joe Hollywood might just hold him off. However, Archarcharch found something extra late and drew off to a 1 3/4 score, completing the six furlongs in 1:10 2/5. Joe Hollywood finished a clear second over B G Suavecito, with Hydro Power trailing the field.

It's rather rare to see a horse break his maiden in a stakes race, but that is what Archarcharch did. He had finished second in his only start prior to the Sugar Bowl and improved a great deal second time out. It will be interesting to see how good he is going two turns. If he can prove more effective at longer distances, he could be a legitimate Derby colt.

Archarcharch is trained by William Fires and was ridden by Jon Court.

As I stated above, I will resume posting in January. Until then, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

-Keelerman

COMMA TO THE TOP WINS THE CASHCALL FUTURITY!

Comma to the Top turned in a simply dominating in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), winning his fifth straight race in stunning fashion through pouring rain.

Under Corey Nakatina, Comma to the Top sat just off of the early pace set by High Level Jeff before taking the lead on the far turn under no urging. He drew off to an easy five length lead in the stretch before winning by an easy two lengths.

J P's Gusto sat just behind the early leaders and may a strong late run to finish a clear second. Clubhouse Ride at 20-1 rallied from far back to just nose out Gourmet Dinner for third.

The victory launches Comma to the Top into the Triple Crown Trail spotlight, as if he wasn't already. The son of Bwana Charlie was a grade III winner of turf prior to running in the CashCall Futurity and is now a grade I winner with graded earnings of over $500,000.

The final time was 1:44 3/5.

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- December 17th, 2010

Whenever ten stakes-caliber two-year-olds meet in the same race, it is worth watching. When ten stakes-caliber two-year-olds meet in a grade I race, vying for a piece of the $750,000 purse, it is a do-not-miss-for-anything.

The 30th running of the CashCall Futurity has drawn a field of ten stakes-caliber two-year-olds, and it should have a major impact on the 2011 Triple Crown Trail. That's why it is this week's feature race.

FEATURE RACE ---- CashCall Futurity (gr. I)

$750,000 purse. For two-year olds. 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

Drawing the rail in this year's futurity is Ronin Dax, a lightly raced son of Tapit. He began his career by winning a one mile turf maiden special weight at Del Mar, rallying five wide to score by a comfortable length and a quarter. However, his second start yielded a disappointing fifth, beaten eight lengths, in the grade III Summer Stakes at Woodbine. His most recent start came on dirt in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on October 31st, where he ran fifth once again, beaten nearly fifteen lengths by Astrology. He appears to be outclassed here, although he has recorded some decent workouts. He will carry 121 pounds, the same as all of the other entries, and will be racing with blinkers off. He is trained by Robert Troeger and will be ridden by Mike Smith.

The number two horse is J P's Gusto. A ridgling son of Successful Appeal, he was the unstoppable leader of the California-based two-year-olds earlier this year, but disappointing efforts going two-turns in the Norfolk Stakes and Breeders' Cup Juvenile have left many doubting how far he can run. He gets another chance to prove himself at longer distances here. His trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was rather rough, so I would not be surprised if he redeems himself here. He is trained by David Hofmans and will be ridden by Joe Talamo.

This brings us to Rustler Hustler. The son of Ecton Park has never finished worse than third in five starts and has won two stakes races. Trained by Rick Dutrow, he broke his maiden second time out going five furlongs at Presque Isle Downs before running second in an allowance race. Sent off at 14-1 in the Continental Mile at Monmouth Park, he charged late to win by a neck, completing the mile on turf in 1:35 1/5. In his most recent start, the Gnome’s Gold Stakes at Belmont Park on the last day of October, he won the mile and a sixteenth event by nearly two lengths with a rapid late run. Seeing that he broke his maiden on a synthetic track, I will be expecting a dramatic late charge from this colt, who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.

Number four in the gate will be Slammer Time. He broke his maiden on the third attempt going a mile on turf with a desperate late lunge, then graduated into stakes company to win the Bob Benoit California Cup Juvenile Stakes on October 30th. However, he is stepping way up in class here and may be in over his head. The son of Grand Slam is trained by Gary Mandella and will be ridden by David Flores.

High Level Jeff, the number five horse, looked like a star in the making when he broke his maiden by eight lengths at Calder Race Course going 5-1/2 furlongs in a sharp time. The son of Vindication looked brighter still when he won an allowance race going six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 over a sloppy Calder main track. However, when he shipped to Hollywood Park to run in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes, the star apparently burned out, as he ran fifth of six as the heavy favorite. Still, it was his first start on a synthetic track and he may run better second time out. He is trained by Doug O'Neill and will be ridden by Joel Rosario.

Then there is Clubhouse Rise, the number six horse. The son of Candy Ride will be making his tenth start in a career which has seen him improve with nearly every start. He began his career by running sixth, and then third, in a pair of maiden special weights. Entered in the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes at Hollywood Park, he ran a distant sixth to J P's Gusto. Returned to the maiden ranks, he ran second and fifth at Hollywood and Del Mar before finally breaking through with a half-length victory going six furlongs at Del Mar. He has been running great since then, winning the Barretts Juvenile Stakes by over two lengths and finishing third in both the Jack Goodman Stakes and the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot. Considering that he has raced over this track five times I'm sure that he will handle it just fine. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenquela and is trained by Craig Lewis.

This brings us to Gourmet Dinner. Trained by Steve Standbridge, the son of Trippi has won four of his five starts, his only loss being by a length and a half in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes. Last time out, he dominated in the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot Stakes, rallying strongly at 20-1 to score by over two lengths. However, this will be his first start on a synthetic track and I do wonder how he is going to take to it. He will be ridden by Sebastian Madrid.

Riveting Reason is the number eight horse. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as a maiden, setting the pace for six furlongs before ending up eighth. However, he came right back to score in a maiden special weight by nearly three lengths. He finished a close up third to Jaycito and J P's Gusto in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and may be underbet here. He is trained by Myung Cho and will be ridden by Alonso Quinonez.

The number nine horse is Industry Leader. The son of Cherokee Run broke his maiden at the Oak Tree meet by 2 1/4 lengths, but in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes could not catch Premier Pegasus, finishing a length and a half behind that one in second. However, I would not be surprised if he improves in his third start and may be good enough to hit the board. He is trained by Kristin Mulhall and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.

Finally, we come to Comma to the Top. The son of Bwana Charlie has won four consecutive races, including the Real Quiet Stakes by over six lengths and the Generous Stakes (gr. III) by nearly two. Considering how well he ran in the Real Quiet Stakes at this same track and distance, I expect him to run huge tomorrow. He is trained by Peter Miller and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.

Here are my picks. . .

1 Comma to the Top

2 J P's Gusto

3 Industry Leader

4 Clubhouse Ride

5 Gourmet Dinner

6 Riveting Reasons

7 Rustler Hustler

8 Slammer Time

9 High Level Jeff

10 Ronin Dax

As much as I like Gourmet Dinner, I worried that he won't be able to take to a synthetic track as well as he has taken to dirt. I do believe that Comma to the Top is a star in the making, and that he is capable of doing great things. J P's Gusto is a classy colt, but I don't think that he is capable of running this far effectively.

OTHER RACES OF NOTE

The CashCall Futurity is the only graded stakes race for two year olds this weekend, but there are a couple of interesting ungraded juvenile stakes races scheduled. They are the $60,000 Sugar Bowl Stakes and the $60,000 Letellier Memorial Stakes, the latter being restricted to fillies and both being at Fair Grounds.

The Sugar Bowl Stakes drew a field of seven, but three scratches have left the race with only four runners. The morning line favorite at 7-2 is Joe Hollywood. The son of Congrats has made two starts thus far, both in maiden special weight races. He ran third in the first one at Keeneland before winning a six furlong event at Fair Grounds by a length and a quarter in 1:11 flat.

The second choice at 7-2 is Archarcharch, who is a son of, guess who, Arch. He ran second in his only start, a maiden special weight, but it was a strong effort and I really like his chances here.

Hydro Power and B G Suavecito complete the field. Hydro Power won a maiden special weight second time but was very disappointing in the Sun Power Stakes. B G Suavecito won a maiden special weight and an allowance race before finishing a dismal eighth in the El Jovan Stakes at Retama Park.

The Letellier Memorial Stakes has drawn a fine field of six fillies. The morning line favorite is Fastation at 9-5. She has made seven starts, winning four of them and never finishing worse than second. Last time out, she won the Permian Basin Stakes by a half-length as the odds-on favorite. It was her fourth consecutive stakes victory, making her the deserving favorite here.

The second choice at 2-1 is Unbridled Praise. She won the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park, but was a disappointing fourth in the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity. I can’t seeing her beating Fastation here, but perhaps I have overlooked something.

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- December 17th, 2010

1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
His pedigree screams classic distances, being by a Preakness winner (Bernardini) out of the Deputy Minister mare Pilfer. He should have no trouble stretching out to a mile and a quarter, expecially since his victory in the Remsen going nine furlongs was so dominating.

2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Although I am still worried about his pedigree, I'm beginning to like Uncle Mo's chances more and more. The track at Churchill Downs during the Breeders' Cup seemed to be somewhat tiring, and to win the way he did was simply phenomenal.

3. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Interestingly, Santiva is a half-brother to Take Arms, who ran third in the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs in 2000.

4. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Unfortunately, this front-running colt drew the far outside in the CashCall Futurity. However, he may be the most talented colt in the field and should be able to overcome it. His Real Quiet victory at the same track and distance as the CashCall Futurity was his sharpest effort to date and he looks like a legitimate Triple Crown colt.

5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He will most likely head down to Florida with stablemates Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty to prep for the Kentucky Derby. It's much too early to tell, but he may end up being the best of the three.

6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He hasn't worked out since his runner-up performance in the Remsen. I'm not sure where he will prep for the Triple Crown, but Aqueduct wouldn't surprise me at all.

7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Will most likely receive two prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby, with the first one being the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) in late January. I am eagerly anticipating his 2011 debut.

8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
I am not sure quite where this colt is heading next. The Sham Stakes is a possibility, but I have a suspicion that he won't return to the races until March.

9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Although he was soundly beaten by Uncle Mo in the Breeders' Cup, I am beginning to like this colt more and more.

10. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Not much more to say about this colt until he returns to training. I highly doubt that he will run in the Holy Bull, as he probably needs more time to ready for his 2011 debut.

11. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
As I suspected, the colt passed on running in the CashCall Futurity. He has not run since winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes and I will not be surprised if the Sham Stakes is to be his next start.

12. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
Amazingly, he is not done for the year. A start in the CashCall Futurity is next for the son of Trippi. It will be his first start on a synthetic surface, but if he wins he will become one of the favorites for next year's Kentucky Derby. It would also give him an incredible total of $1,050,000 in graded earnings.

13. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
The undefeated filly has two stakes victories to her credit, including the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I) in easy fashion. A daughter of Congrats, she will most likely run in both the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) and Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) next spring.

14. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
Interestingly, Steve Asmussen intends to send Astrology to Santa Anita to prep for the Triple Crown. This will definitely add a little spark to the Triple Crown Trail next year.

15. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
I really liked the way that she outfought R Heat Lightning in the stretch of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. I’m not sure where she will prep in the spring, but Aqueduct wouldn’t surprise me.

16. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Broke his maiden in very impressive fashion at Churchill Downs on November 12th. He showed an amazing turn of foot in that race, coming from over eleven lengths back. He breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on December 13th.

17. Read the Contract - Trained by Richard Violette
Worked four furlongs in :51 3/5 on December 13th at Palm Meadows Training Center. I would not be surprised if he were to run in the Holy Bull Stakes at the end of January.

18. Mountain Town - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Returned to the work tab by breezing five furlongs in 1:04 flat at Gulfstream Park. Like Read the Contract, I expect to see him return to the races in the Holy Bull.

19. Major Gain - Trained by Wayne Catalano
Breezed a half-mile in an easy :50 flat at Gulfstream Park this morning.

20. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
Gets one more chance to prove himself going two turns in the CashCall Futurity on Saturday. Should he win, the Triple Crown Trail is in his future. Should he lose, he will likely return to one-turn races where he should win more than his fair share of races.

Other Notable Horses:

Bandbox - Disappointing after a rough trip in the Remsen.
Buffum - Disappointing in the Remsen.
Clubhouse Ride - Third in the Delta Jackpot; drew gate six for the CashCall Futurity.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Impressive maiden winner
Curlinello - I have a feeling that this colt may be something special.
Decisive Moment - The Smarty Jones Stakes is next.
Elite Alex - Broke his maiden earlier this year, but has not raced since.
Grant Jack - Hard fought victory in the Springboard Mile launches him into the picture.
Kathmanblu - Very impressive in the Golden Rod Stakes.
Positive Response - Six length winner of the Gold Rush Stakes deserves some respect.
R Heat Lightning - Game second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies; will likely prep in Florida.
Riveting Reason - Broke his maiden last time out; drew post eight for the CashCall Futurity.
Sweet Ducky - Will likely prep for the Triple Crown in Arkansas or Louisiana.

-Keelerman

GIANT'S CAUSEWAY VS. BROOMSTICK

(Note: The following is the first in a series of occasional posts concerning historical horse racing events, famous runners, stallions, and such. I hope you enjoy these posts, for I find them utterly fascinating and fun to write. Enjoy!)

While browsing through some very old leading sire lists a few days ago, I happened upon some startling facts which got me thinking about today's top stallions. The list in question is the "47 Prominent Stallions" chart contained within the reprint of A Quarter Century of American Racing and Breeding, by The Blood-Horse, Inc. Contained in this captivating chart are—as the name implies—forty-seven stallions and a detailed outline of their stud careers. The columns in this chart include number of crops, named foals, winners, two-year-old winners, stakes winners, earnings in U.S., sire list, year-starters, and average-earnings index. Although all of these columns could potentially make worthy blog posts themselves, the column of focus today is the “named foals column,” along with the closely-related “crops” column.

Examining this chart gave me an idea for a fascinating blog post comparing the 2009 leading general sire, Giant's Causeway, to Broomstick, who led the general sire list for three consecutive years during the early part of the 20th century and was in the top twenty for seventeen consecutive years.

(Before reading on, please note that these numbers are not entirely complete. For the purpose of simplicity, I have excluded Giant's Causeway's southern hemisphere foal crops and Broomstick's foreign foal crops from the following tabulations. In other words, Giant's Causeway's totals reflect only his northern hemisphere foals and Broomstick's reflect only his North American foals.)

We shall begin this analysis with Giant's Causeway, easily one of the best sires in the world. Thus far, Giant's Causeway has been represented by grade/group I winners in England, France, U.S.A., South Africa, and Australia, as well champions in Italy and England. He has sired grade I winners on dirt, turf, and synthetics. Through November 8th, 2010, he is the sire of 949 named foals, from which 713 (75%) have become winners and 79 (8%) have become stakes winners. His best foals include Shamardal, champion two-year old and three-year old in England; Heatseeker, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap; and Eskendereya, winner of the Wood Memorial in stunning fashion earlier this year.

All in all, Giant's Causeway's foals have earned $64,049,913. His average-earnings index is currently 1.95. This is a very good record; although his percentage of stakes winners does not quite match up with such sires as A.P. Indy (13%) and Distorted Humor (10%).

However, there is one final statistic that must be mentioned before moving on to an analysis of Broomstick. This is the number of foal crops of racing age which Giant's Causeway has sired thus far, which is 7. This is the key number; don't forget it!

That said, we can now move on to Broomstick. Broomstick was the sire of 280 named foals, from which 207 (74%) became winners and 69 (25%) became stakes winners. His stakes winners included Regret, winner of the Kentucky Derby; Whisk Broom II, winner of the Metropolitan, Brooklyn, and Suburban Handicaps; and Cudgel, leading older horse of 1918. Cudgel could make an entire blog post himself, for in 1918 he won the Pimlico Spring Handicap, Kings County Handicap under 130 pounds, the Kentucky Handicap under 132 pounds, the Brooklyn Handicap under 129, and the Dixie Handicap. Amazingly, Cudgel was the leading older horse in 1919 as well. Although he only won four of eleven starts that year, his victory over Exterminator in the Havre de Grace Handicap while carrying 129 pounds earned him the title. Also in his dust that day was Sir Barton and The Porter, both very nice horses; Sir Barton being a Triple Crown winner.

Altogether, Broomstick's foals earned $2,639,502, a very good total at the time. His average-earnings index was 2.22. But here is the key component of this analysis—he accomplished this from twenty-five crops.

Compare. . .

Horse                           Crops     Foals    Winners       Stakes Winners
GIANT'S CAUSEWAY        7            949       713 (75%)   79 (8%)
BROOMSTICK                 25           280       207 (74%)   69 (25%)

There seems to be something funny going on here. . . Giant's Causeway has sired over three times as many named foals as Broomstick; yet has done so from only seven crops! On the other hand, Broomstick managed to sire 69 stakes winners in his lifetime, while Giant's Causeway has only managed 79!

Going a little deeper into these statistics, we see that Giant's Causeway has averaged 135.57 foals per year, while Broomstick averaged 11.2. To garner 25% percent stakes winners is astronomical. No North American stallion has surpassed or equaled that number since then; with Bold Ruler, Nasrullah, and Northern Dancer all coming close with 23% but all failing to reach the 25% mark.

At first glance, it appears as though Broomstick is a better sire than Giant's Causeway, and that is possibly the case. 25% percent stakes winners is simply incredible; a nearly impossible feat to match. However, upon further examining the "47 Prominent Stallions" chart I noticed one other thing that is worth noting. All but 18 of the 47 stallions sired 10% stakes winners or better, and all but eleven equaled or surpassed Giant's Causeway's 8% stakes winners. Even Chance Shot, who never led the general sire list and ranked in the top twenty only three times managed to sire 10% stakes winners. All together, the 47 stallions averaged 11% stakes winners. Why did all of these sires have such high percentages of stakes winners when a fabulous sire like Giant's Causeway can only manage 8%? I have come up with three solutions which could explain this.

Explanation A is that the 47 prominent stallions were, on average, better sires than Giant's Causeway, which seems unlikely. Explanation B is it was easier to become a stakes winner during the time period in question. Finally, for Explanation C: Does siring over a hundred foals a year lessen any given horse’s chances of siring stakes winners? Does the quality of a stallion’s offspring actually decrease in accordance to an increase in total foals? This doesn’t seem possible; yet the statistics seem to say it is a possibility.

This is everything I have to say. I would love to hear your input regarding these statistics. Why do you think that, on average, stallions from about 1900 to 1950 managed to sire such a large percentage of stakes winners? Does it have something to do with the number of foals sired by a stallion? Or is there some other factor which I didn't mention that could be influencing the numbers? Feel free to leave your thoughts below!

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- December 14th, 2010

RECAP OF LAST WEEK'S RACES

Hollywood Starlet Stakes

Last week, we saw a superstar in the making.

Turbulent Descent, ridden by David Flores, took the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I) in superstar fashion. No, she didn't win by double-digit lengths. No, her final time was nothing out of the ordinary.

It was the way that she won the race that mattered.

Sent off at 1.10-1, Turbulent Descent came into the Starlet undefeated; a perfect 2-for-2. An easy victory in the Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood Park made her the favorite for this year end test. She had never gone around two turns before, but there was very little doubt that she could do so.

David Flores rode her like she was a champion. He saved ground early before taking her three wide around the far turn. When he asked her for her run, the race was over. Under a hand ride, she easily took the lead from Nina Fever and May Day Rose, leaving those two rivals in her dust and easily turning back late runs from Big Tiz and Tell a Kelly. She closed her final sixteenth in 6.74 seconds, completing the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.18.

There was something about her performance that cannot be described with words. You had to see it to understand it. There seemed to be another layer to this filly; a layer of pure, untapped talent. It is a bit too early to tell, but I came away from the race feeling as though I had just watched Zenyatta's successor win the first of many grade I races. Time will tell if she can run like Zenyatta could, but don't underestimate this brilliant juvenile. I expect that we will be hearing a lot more about her in the coming months. Her next start will likely be in the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) in February at Santa Anita Park, where she will try dirt for the first time. If she can handle dirt as well as synthetics, she could become the favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Oaks.

As for the rest of the runners, Big Tiz, sent off at 37-1, was never too far off the pace and finished a strong second while never really challenging the winner. Tell a Kelly, sent off as the second choice under Joel Rosario, rallied from last to finish third. May Day Rose, second for much of the race, held on until the eighth pole before being swallowed up to finish fourth. Trained by Bob Baffert, her performance was actually very good and I will be watching her closely.

Zazu, second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes, failed to rally in the stretch and ended up fifth, beaten five lengths. True Way of Grace, reserved in sixth early, saved ground and didn't rally. Nina Fever set a testing pace of :23 2/5, :47 flat, and 1:12 flat before folding to finish seventh. Luna Grande ran last, never reaching contention at any point in the race.

Just a side note that means absolutely nothing, but four horses ran with blinkers on in the Starlet Stakes and ran 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th. Hmm. . . :)

The final results were as follows. . .

1 Turbulent Descent
2 Big Tiz
3 Tell a Kelly
4 May Day Rose
5 Zazu
6 True Way of Grace
7 Nina Fever
8 Victor Espinoza

Here were my picks. . .

1 Turbulent Descent
2 Nina Fever
3 Tell a Kelly
4 Zazu
5 May Day Rose
6 Big Tiz
7 Luna Grande
8 True Was of Grace

Turbulent Descent's pedigree is worth a lengthy discussion as well. Her sire is Congrats, winner of the grade II San Pasqual Handicap at five years of age. Although his best distance was likely a mile and a sixteenth (both of his stakes victories came at that distance) he did prove classy enough to finish second in the Santa Anita Handicap to Rock Hard Ten and third in the Hollywood Gold Cup to Lava Man and Borrego. No one can claim that he didn't keep good company!

Congrats' pedigree is also fascinating. His third dam, Glowing Tribute, was the dam of Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero, United Nations Handicap winner Hero's Honor, Diana Handicap winner Glowing Honor, and Mackie, winner of the Busher Stakes (gr. III) and dam ofg Seeing the Best, a group III winner in Japan, as well as Mr. Mellon, winner of the Arlington Classic Stakes (gr. II). From eleven foals, Glowing Tribute was the dam of seven stakes winners and was Broodmare of the Year in 1993.

Congrats’ sire line has done very well in the Triple Crown. By A.P. Indy, Congrats traces back to the great sire Bold Ruler, who, along with his sons and grandsons, accounted for seven of the ten Kentucky Derby winners in the 1970s. Congrats’ grandsire, Seattle Slew, sired many spectacular champions, including Swale, winner of the 1984 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

The dam of Turbulent Descent is Roger's Sue. Born in 2001, Roger's Sue never made it to the races but has had three foals thus far. All three have won races, but Turbulent Descent is her first black type runner. Roger's Sue is by Forestry, a grade I winning sprinter who has sired thirty-five stakes winners from his first seven crops, including grade I winners Discreet Cat, Diplomat Lady, and Forest Danger. He is a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Cash Run who also claimed victories in the Bonnie Miss Stakes (gr. II) and Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Forestry's dam, Shared Interest, was a grade I winner herself, with victories in the Ruffian Handicap (gr. I) and First Flight Handicap (gr. II) her biggest scores. However, her dam, Fabulous, made only one start and did not win, earning $300. Her best foal to date has been Bonay, a filly who never won a stakes races but ran third in both the Comely Stakes (gr. III) and Tempted Stakes (gr. III).

What do you think of Turbulent Descent's pedigree? Could it possibly carry her a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May? If you have an opinion, feel free to comment below!

OTHER RACE RECAPS

If you managed to hit the superfecta in the Springboard Mile Stakes. . . well, let's just say that you probably didn't even come close.

Whenever a heavy favorite fails to win, you can expect large payoffs. When the favorite runs seventh and the top four finishers are all 10-1 or higher, you can expect astronomical payoffs.

This happened on Saturday at Remington Park in the $250,000 Springboard Mile Stakes. For two-year-olds, the odds-one favorite was Caleb's Posse. The second choice was Twinspired at 4-1; the third choice was Chipshot at 7-1.

None of them hit the board.

The early pace was set by Brickyard Fast, a 54-1 shot who dueled with Aces N Kings (10-1) through very good fractions of :23 1/5, :47 flat, and 1:11 4/5. Grant Jack (14-1) sat directly behind them in third. Caleb's Posse was getting a perfect trip in fourth, just off of the solid pace. Surely Caleb's Posse could pass those three leaders at any time he wanted. After all, everyone knows that 54-1 shots don't dual with 10-1 shots through a :23 1/5 opening quarter and hang around for the finish, right?

Wrong!

As Caleb's Poose dropped out of contention in the stretch, it was Brickyard Fast and Aces N Kings who battled each other through the stretch. However, Grant Jack proved too much for both of them, passing them just past the eighth pole to win by a length. Amazingly, Brickyard Fast held second, with Aces N Kings a clear third. Trubs, a 16-1 shot who has raced in fifth for a good portion of the race, rallied for fourth, completing a superfecta of which a $2 bet returned $104,293.20.

Chipshot did best among the favorites, finishing a distant fifth. Caleb's Posse ended up seventh, beaten nearly twelve lengths. He did defeated Twinspired by a nose, however.

The final time over the fast main track was 1:37 4/5.

In the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields, the favorite was Luckarack. However, just like Caleb's Posse, he ran a non-threatening seventh. It was Positive Response who proved best, going straight to the lead and never looking back. He dominated the Gold Rush Stakes by an impressive six lengths. Although he wasn't pressured on the lead (he got away with fractions of :24 3/5 and :49 3/5) he did close his last two eighths in under twelve seconds for an impressive :23 4/5 final quarter mile. Grand Maneuver, sent off as the 6-1 fifth choice, ran second although he was no match for the winner. He was a neck in front of King Cola at the wire.

Interestingly, Eddie Coddana finished last after attempting to chase the pace set by Positive Response. Did a problem arise during the running of the race, or was it merely impossible to stay with Positive Response on the lead? I'm leaning toward the former, but if it was indeed the latter then Positive Response could be a better horse than we imagine.

I will be back with a Top Twenty within the day.

-Keelerman

TURBULENT DESCENT WINS THE HOLLYWOOD STARLET STAKES!

Favored Turbulent Decsent made a sweeping in the homestretch to fly to victory in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I) at Hollywood Park tonight.

Ridden patiently by David Flores, the even-momey favorite sat just off the early pace while racing on the rail. Nina Fever and May Day Rose set the early pace, with Nina Fever maintaining a slight advantage through an opening quarter in :23 2/5 and a half in :47 flat. Then Turbulent Descent came three wide into the stretch and flew past the leaders, winning by about two lengths.

Big Tiz rallied strongly for second, with Tell a Kelly coming from about ten or twelve lengths back to grab third. May Day Rose finished fourth. True Way of Grace, Nina Fever, and Luna Grande trailed the field.

The final time was 1:44 flat.

Earlier in the day, trainer Melvin Stute won the first race of the day with Score for Fun, a 25-1 shot. It was his 2000th career victory. Congratulations to Melvin Stute!

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- December 10th, 2010

December is a bit of a dry spell in Thoroughbred horse racing. The Breeders' Cup is over, and the really interesting Triple Crown preps are still a ways off. However, Hollywood Park does its best to entertain racing fans during this long month, and on Saturday they have the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes for our enjoyment. As it is the only major race being run in the United States this weekend, it will be this week's feature race.

FEATURE RACE ---- Hollywood Starlet Stakes
For two-year-old fillies. 1 1/16 miles on main track.

The Hollywood Starlet Stakes is one of the more important races for two-year-old fillies in this country. Last year, the winner was Blind Luck, who went on to score victories in the Las Virgenes Stakes, Kentucky Oaks, and Alabama Stakes (all grade I). This year, there are several promising fillies heading to post, led by the undefeated Turbulent Descent.

Here are the post positions. . .

1 True Way of Grace
2 Nina Fever
3 May Day Rose
4 Luna Grande
5 Turbulent Descent
6 Big Tiz
7 Zazu
8 Tell a Kelly

We will begin our analysis of this race with True Way of Grace. The daughter of Yes It's True failed in a pair of maiden races but broke her maiden in a restricted stakes race at Fairplex Park. Sent off at 34-1 in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I), she ran a distant fifth of seven. However, in the Sharp Cat Stakes on November 7th, she ran a strong second to May Day Rose. Trained by Alexis Barba, she will be ridden by Paul Atkinson and will carry 120 pounds, the same as all of the other runners.

The number two horse is Nina Fever, who has had a long campaign. The daughter of Borrego has won seven of her eight starts, most recently finishing second in the Glorious Song Stakes, beaten only a head despite setting blazing fractions. Amazingly, she was competing in claiming races earlier this year. She has quite a bit of natural speed and will likely set the pace. She will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and is trained by Wesley Ward.

May Day Rose is the number three horse. The daughter of Rockport Harbor has made three starts thus far, winning two of them, including the Sharp Cat Stakes by a decisive 4 1/4 lengths. She is proven at this distance and recorded a brilliant six furlong workout in 1:11 4/5 on December 5th. Trained by Bob Baffert, she has an excellent chance at stealing this race. She will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.

Luna Grande in gate four intrigues me. She has made eight starts, winning only two of them, but last time out she won an allowance race at Calder Race Course by nearly six lengths. However, that was going 5-1/2 furlongs. In her one start at today's distance, she finished a distant second in an allowance race. The daughter of Mass Media is trained by Kristin Mulhall and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza.

This brings us to Turbulent Descent. She is undefeated in two starts, breaking her maiden first time out and winning the Moccasin Stakes in sharp fashion on November 21st. She may be coming back just a bit fast, but she will probably handle it without any trouble. The daughter of Congrats appears to have an unlimited future. She will be ridden by David Flores and is trained by Mike Puype.

The number six filly is Big Tiz. The daughter of Tiznow failed in maiden races three times before breaking through with a head victory going a mile and a sixteenth at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park. Sent off as the favorite in the Sharp Cat Stakes, she chased the pace before tiring to third. Trained by Mark Glatt, she will likely be near the lead but I doubt if she will finish on the board. She will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela.

Zazu is the number seven horse. Owner by Mr. & Mrs. Jerry Moss, she finished second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin but will get a chance to turn the tables here. She turned in a strong five furlong workout on December 6th and has an excellent chance at pulling off an upset. She is trained by John Sadler and will be ridden by Mike Smith.

Finally, we come to Tell a Kelly. The daughter of Tapit looked like a potential superstar when she rocketed past Wickedly Perfect to win the grade I Darley Debutante Stakes by 4 1/2 widening lengths, but could only manage a second in the Oak Leaf Stakes to Rigoletta. Well bet in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was never a factor while finishing seventh of twelve, beaten thirteen lengths. However, a return to the synthetic Hollywood Park main track could be just the thing she needs to turn in her best performance. She is trained by John Sadler and will be ridden by Joel Rosario.

It is a fairly difficult race to handicap, as there are many fine fillies in this race, but here are my picks. . .

1 Turbulent Descent
2 Nina Fever
3 Tell a Kelly
4 Zazu
5 May Day Rose
6 Big Tiz
7 Luna Grande
8 True Way of Grace

As much as Luna Grande intrigues me, I'm afraid that I don't think she will pull this off. I believe that Turbulent Descent could be a future star and that she will win impressively on Saturday. Nina Fever has a lot of early speed and may get to set a slower pace this time. Tell a Kelly may be the best horse in the race, but she may be better at seven furlongs than a mile and a sixteenth.

OTHER RACES OF NOTE

At Remington Park on Saturday, there is the $250,000 Springboard Mile Stakes for two-year-olds. As the name implies, the distance is one mile on the main track. It has drawn a field of twelve, with the morning line favorite being Caleb's Posse, winner of the Clever Trevor Stakes by five and a half lengths last time out. He also finished third in the Washington-Arlington Futurity (gr. III) earlier this year.

Chipshot, the 9-2 second choice, drew the far outside but should not be ignored. He has proven to be a solid stakes competitor, finishing third in the Sapling Stakes (gr. III), second in the Dover Stakes, and third in the Clever Trevor Stakes.

12-1 on the morning line is Aces N Kings. The gelding won his first five starts before finishing second in the Sunday Silence Stakes, beaten a nose. However, he lost his jockey last time out in the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) and didn't finish the race. However, he deserves recognition here as a solid young horse and could run better than expected.

On the west coast, there is the Gold Rush Stakes, a $75,000 stakes race for two-year-olds. A one mile race at Golden Gate Fields, it has drawn a field of eight. The favorite may end up being King Cola, who has never finished worse than third in six starts. Last time out, he ran third in an allowance race at this track, but was running well in stakes races earlier this year.

Also vying for favoritism will be Grand Maneuver, winner of three straight races. He won the allowance race in which King Cola finished third.

Finally, although this is "Triple Crown Countdown", I must at least briefly mention the spectacular card of Cathay Pacific International races at the Shat Tin Racecourse on Sunday in Hong Kong. There are many great international horses running in the four races, including Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes winner Winchester, Canadian International winner Joshua Tree, Northern Dancer Stakes winner Redwood, Melbourne Cup winner Americain, as well as Beethoven, Good Ba Ba, Vision d'Etat, Snow Fairy, Reggane, Stacelita, Paco Boy, Mastery, and others. Good Ba Ba will attempt to win the Hong Kong Mile for an unprecedented fourth consecutive time.

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY---- December 6th, 2010

1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
Still the top pick (and probably will be until at least a month from now), To Honor and Serve will likely prep for the Triple Crown in Florida. He has not worked out since his brilliant Remsen score.

2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Has not recorded a workout since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but will likely return to training in Florida early next year. The Wood Memorial is the early goal for the brilliant colt.

3. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Already grade I placed, the Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) winner has a lot of things going for him, including a unique pedigree. I'm really excited about this colt's potential.

4. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Worked four furlongs in :48 1/5 handily at Hollywood Park this morning and appears to be on course for the CashCall Futurity.

5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has a long way to go, and a lot of graded earnings to earn, but his pedigree is fascinating and he seems to have a lot of raw ability.

6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He has shown some good tactical speed and has never been very far back in any of his five starts. I really like the consistency that this colt has shown.

7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Breezed four furlongs in 1:04 4/5 at Aqueduct on November 26th. This colt has a lot of options for next spring, but I would not be surprised if he stayed in New York.

8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Uncle Mo, he has not recorded a workout since the Juvenile. If he learns to like dirt, his pedigree can take him great places. I would love to see him in the Santa Anita Derby in a few months.

9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
He has received a break since running third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, having not worked out since that race.

10. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his stablemate Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty is receiving a break. He has not recorded any workouts since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but will likely return to training early next year in Florida.

11. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
The undefeated Premier Pegasus looked like a star in the making when he took the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) in wire-to-wire fashion. I don't know if he will run in the CashCall Futurity, but run or not, he is a colt to watch.

12 Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
Stepped up and ran a huge race in the Delta Jackpot Stakes, and the $600,000 he earned there guarantees him a spot in the Kentucky Derby if he stays healthy. The son of Trippi has now won four of his five starts and will prep for the Triple Crown in Florida.

13. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
The Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) winner was the heavy favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club but could find nothing extra in the final strides and was unable to get past Santiva. However, it was still a very strong performance and he is eligible to improve off of it.

14. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
The undefeated filly showed grit when winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She has since been sold and although the possibility of running her in the Kentucky Derby is small, she definitely deserves to be in my top twenty.

15 Read the Contract - Trained by Richard Violette
Broke his maiden impressively at Aqueduct on November 26th. He has a long (long) way to go, but I wouldn't count him out.

16. Mountain Town - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Has run into some very good horses lately and run rather well, finishing a distant second in the Champagne Stakes to Uncle Mo and a distant third to To Honor and Serve in the Remsen. At this time he doesn't quite seem good enough for the Triple Crown, but he has a lot of potential.

17. Major Gain - Trained by Wayne Catalano
Finished a close third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and very nearly grabbed second. The winner of the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III), he took to the Churchill Downs main track just fine and may be one of the better juveniles out there, despite the fact that next to no one is talking about him.

18. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
He looked like a major force in California earlier this year, but disappointing efforts in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile have left him somewhat forgotten. He seems to be more of a sprinter than a classic-type runner.

19. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
Ran a very strong second to Gourmet Dinner in the Delta Jackpot. The $200,000 he earned there will greatly help his chances of making the Kentucky Derby. Time will tell how talented he is, but he looks like a legitimate contender.

20. Curlinello - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Ran second to Sweet Ducky twice at Monmouth Park earlier this year. He has not raced in a while, but has been working out at Belmont Park, his most recent work being a four furlong breeze in :48 1/5.

Other Notable Horses;

Bandbox
Buffum
Clubhouse Ride
Cool Blue Red Hot
Elite Alex
R Heat Lightning
Sweet Ducky

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S TOP TEN ---- November 29, 2010

(Due to the fact that it is only November and I am still compiling my 2011 three-year-olds-to-watch list, I have decided to make this week's "Top Twenty" a "Top Ten" instead. Enjoy!)

1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
His Remsen score was excellent and he appears to have unlimited talent. Time will tell just how good he is, but he may be the colt to give Mott his first Kentucky Derby victory.

2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
The undefeated Uncle Mo will most likely be voted champion two-year-old male in January off of his decisive victories in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). However, his pedigree does worry me just a bit.

3. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
I really liked the way this colt fought on in between horses to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). A win over the Churchill Downs main track is always useful, and he seems to have a lot of untapped potential.

4. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
The son of Bwana Charlie has won four straight races, topped by the grade III Generous Stakes last Saturday. He has made nine starts this year, but is not done yet--a start in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) remains. The sky is the limit with this promising juvenile.

5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
A half-brother to the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Brethren is undefeated in two starts, the most recent being an allowance race last Saturday, where he circled the field five wide to score convincingly. I would imagine that a debut in stakes company will be next.

6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Mucho Macho Man just seems to be getting better and better. He has twice in a row finished second to To Honor and Serve, in both the Nashua and the Remsen, and should be a force next year.

7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Obviously very talented, Boys at Tosconova won the Hopeful Stakes earlier this year and finished a distant second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Both performances shout ability, but his pedigree may catch up to him next year.

8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
The winner of the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) was extremely disappointing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, his pedigree warrants giving him a second chance. He seems to have a great deal of stamina and should be a force next year, especially if he can prove himself on a dirt surface.

9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Winner of the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on turf, the son of Smarty Jones ran huge in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to finish third and is one of the more exciting two-year-olds of 2010. I'm greatly anticipating his next start, for he seems to have a little something extra that a lot of colts don't have.

10. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Stay Thirsty finished a game second in the Hopeful to Boys at Tosconova, but could only manage a fifth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, his pedigree says that he will get better with distance and he should be a very nice three-year-old.

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- November 26th, 2010

Welcome back to Triple Crown Countdown! With the Breeders' Cup concluded and several great two-year-old races being run this weekend, I decided that now is as good a time as any to start thinking about the 2011 Triple Crown.

The heavy favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Derby at the moment is Uncle Mo, impressive winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, my pick for the Derby is currently To Honor and Serve. A son of Bernardini, the colt is running in the grade II Remsen Stakes on Saturday, which happens to be this week's Feature Race.

FEATURE RACE ---- Remsen Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/8 Miles at Aqueduct

The Remsen Stakes, a important early prep race for the 2011 Triple Crown series, has drawn a solid field of seven, led by the above-mentioned To Honor and Serve. The colt has won two of his three starts, breaking his maiden second time out at Belmont Park by almost nine lengths before easily winning the grade II Nashua Stakes by 4 lengths. Trained by Bill Mott, he has drawn gate five and will be ridden by John Velazquez. He will carry top weight of 120 pounds.

Bandbox, undefeated in three starts, has an excellent chance as well. Although he has never raced beyond seven furlongs, he has shown to be a very versatile colt and should be able to handle any pace scenario. Trained by Rodney Jenkins, Bandbox won the Charles Town Juvenile Stakes by nearly ten lengths before Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont Park by a length and a quarter. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.

Buffum, the 2-1 morning line second choice, looks like a colt with a lot of potential. The son of Bernardini has only raced once, desperately hanging on to win a one mile maiden special weight by a nose. The final time was a decent 1:36 4/5, and he has every chance to improve off of it here. I would not be surprised at all if he is a factor in the stretch.

He is trained by Thomas Albertraini, and will be ridden by David Cohen. He will carry 116 pounds.

Mountain Town, 6-1 on the morning line, has a big chance as well. The son of Cape Town overcome a tough trip to win a 5-1/2 furlong claiming race by a head, coming from ten lengths back. This impressive performance was enough to warrant a start in the grade I Champagne Stakes. Although he was no match for Uncle Mo, finishing five lengths behind the likely juvenile champion, he did finish second, ten lengths clear of the third place finisher. If he runs that well tomorrow, he is capable of winning this race. Trained by Rick Dutrow, he will be ridden by C. Velasquez and will carry 116 pounds.

This brings us to Mucho Macho Man, a son of Macho Uno. From four starts, he has recorded a win, two seconds, and a third. He began his career by finishing second to Gourmet Dinner in a maiden special weight race. Gourmet Dinner won the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot last week.

Mucho Macho Man then ran third to Curlinello in another maiden special weight. Curlinello has finished second in two stakes races since then. He then broke through with a victory over Bellamy's Boss in a maiden special weight. Stepped up into stakes company, he finished second to To Honor and Serve in the Nashua Stakes. He is trained by Katherine Ritvo and will be ridden by Eibar Coa. He will carry 116 pounds.

Pants On Fire and Economic Summit have scratched.

This race should have a large impact on the Triple Crown Trail next year, and I'm very excited about the potential these juveniles have shown.

My picks are. . .

1 To Honor and Serve
2 Mountain Town
3 Bandbox
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Buffum

Who do you like?

OTHER RACES OF NOTE

Another race which will likely have a major impact on the 2011 Triple Crown Trail is the grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Super Saver, this year's Kentucky Derby winner, proved best in the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club. Therefore, I will be paying close attention to the winner of this race, which has drawn a field of seven.

The 6-5 morning line favorite is Astrology. A son of A. P. Indy, he began his career by finishing third in a maiden special weight. He broke through with a win in a maiden special weight over To Honor and Serve, which definitely bodes well for his chances today. A third place finish in the Garden State Stakes to Sweet Ducky and Curlinello was followed up by a dominant win in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) over the Churchill Downs main track. The fact that he has a victory over this track makes him the deserving favorite here.

The second choice here is Santiva. He has yet to break his maiden, but he did finish second in the grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity. He has a very strong late run and should be charging in the stretch.

Major Gain, winner of the grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity, is the 4-1 co-third choice. However, he could only manage a fifth-place finish in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity and has never run on dirt.

Cane Garden Bay turned in a brilliant performance in the maiden special weight, winning the seven furlong event by a length and a quarter in a sharp 1:22 1/5. He has run well on both dirt and synthetic and his late kick appears to be very potent.

It is difficult to pick from this fine group of horses, but here are my selections. . .

1 Cane Garden Bay
2 Astrology
3 Santiva
4 Major Gain
5 Halo's Thunder
6 Prideofthechapter
7 Enable

One race prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is a one mile allowance race for two year olds. Brethren, a Todd Pletcher-trained son of Distorted Humor is a half-brother to Super Saver, and won a maiden special weight by a half-length, scorching six furlongs in 1:08 4/5. If he runs that well tomorrow, he is definitely a colt to watch next year.

For two-year-old fillies, there is the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) and the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II). Both have drawn good fields, with Kathmanblu the morning line favorite in the Golden Rod and Believe in A. P. the favorite in the Demoiselle. Both ran well in the Breeders' Cup, with Kathmanblu finishing third in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Believe in A. P. finishing fourth in the Juvenile Fillies. Both appear to have excellent chances at winning their respective races and although I won't make any official selections, I will be watching both races.

On Monday, I will post my first official "Keelerman's Top Twenty" of 2011, a list of my top twenty picks for the 2011 classics. Be sure to check back for it!

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

Greatness

What is greatness?

Greatness is a relative measurement; defined by one’s own opinion and views. Is a horse’s greatness defined by what they accomplish on the racetrack, what they accomplish off the racetrack, the competition they face, or the races in which they run?

Greatness can be any one of these and more.

Secretariat was a great horse. He won the Triple Crown and set records that still stand. By winning the Belmont Stakes by 31 magnificent lengths, he took the meaning of greatness to a whole new level. Along the way, he made memories for all who saw him and proved himself to be just as good--if not better--on the grass than he was on the dirt. He was perhaps the closest thing to the fictional Black Stallion as any horse could ever be.

Rachel Alexandra is a great horse. She was the epitome of brilliance; and she will likely remain the only filly to win the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward. She won the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose by twenty marvelous lengths each, the Mother Goose in a faster time and by more lengths than Ruffian, and the ease at which many of her victories were accomplished left all of her fans breathless.

Zenyatta is a great horse. Unlike the prior two runners, she is not famous for winning races by double-digit lengths; nor is she famous for breaking track records. She is famous for her patented late run, which has failed her only once despite the incredibly slow early fractions in many of her races. Her personality is endearing, her charisma undeniable, and her apparent ability to time her late run leaves one gasping in astonishment. And her pre-race dancing is equally show-stopping.

What about Silky Sullivan? Although no longer a household name, I’m positive that no other horse has ever existed who could come from forty-one lengths behind. . . in a sprint race. . . and still win. This incredible talent alone makes Silky Sullivan a great horse.

The exact opposite of Silky Sullivan is Presious Passion. The old gelding has many memorable performances on his resume, but perhaps the one that will be remembered most is his run in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last year, where he went out ten lengths in front of a quality field, rattling off fractions of :23 flat, :45 flat, 1:09 1/5, 1:34 2/5, and 1:59 3/5. The field caught him just after a mile and a quarter, and a lesser horse would have folded from the intense pace that he had set. Presious Passion? Why, the running had just begun! Closing his final quarter in :24 seconds, Presious Passion allowed only one horse to pass him, Conduit, the defending winner of the race. To run the first half-mile of a twelve-furlong race in :45 seconds and end up beaten only a half-length is true greatness.

Likewise, Danzig was a great horse. He was undefeated, yes, although he ran only three times, and never in a stakes race. He amassed a grand total of $32,400 in earnings. It is what he did as a sire that etched his name among horse racing’s immortals. He has given us many thrills in the form of Dance Smartly, Chief’s Crown, Danehill, Pine Bluff, Danzig Connection, and Hard Spun. Would racing be the same if Danzig had never been born? Absolutely not.

Equally great are mares like No Class. As a racehorse, No Class lived up to her name. She won 3 races from 29 starts, amassing a meager $37,543 in earnings. But when she became a broodmare, her name could have easily been All Class. She produced eight foals, of which seven made it to the races. All seven became winners. Six of them became stakes winners. Her 1981 foal, Classy ‘n Smart, went on to become the dam of Smart Strike. Without No Class, horses like Curlin, Lookin at Lucky, and English Channel would never have been born.

Even the claimers are great. Horses like Defender, Unstoppable Force, Bucky Came Home, and Challenged have never won a race, but they serve a very important purpose; without them, little claiming races wouldn’t fill. Race tracks would be unable to card enough races, and therefore would be unable to run big races like the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Hollywood Gold Cup and Vanity. The claimers, if you think about it, are crucial to horse racing.

Greatness is relative, limited only by one’s imagination. To me, all horses are great. What do you think?

--Keelerman

UNUSUAL SUSPECT WINS THE HOLLYWOOD TURF CUP!

Unusual Suspect wore down Temple City in the final stride to secure his first grade I win in the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes.

Sitting third early under Corey Nakatani, Unusual Suspect recieved a perfect ride to reach contention as the field turned for home, just getting up to catch front-running Temple City to win by a head.

Temple City went to the lead from the start and set fairly slow fractions. He was tracked by Marlang and Unusual Suspect. Longshot Big Shot Syd was racing in third. The two favorites, Where's the Remote and Treat Gently, were right together sixth and seventh with Buenos Dias sitting last.

Where's the Remote dropped back around the far turn and finished last. Treat Gently made a good run entering the stretch but flattened out. In the end, it was Buenos Dias who rallied for third. Treat Gently held on for fourth.

The final time was 2:25 4/5.

-Keelerman

THOUGHTS ON THE HOLLYWOOD TURF CUP

It is currently eleven minutes to post time for the grade I Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes, a mile and a half turf race for three year olds and up. Although none of the eight runners have won a grade I race, I find it a truly fascinating field of runners.

The current favorite is Where's the Remote, who finished second to Champ Pegasus in the Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship Stakes just over a month ago. Champ Pegasus came back to run second in the Breeders' Cup Turf, which is definitely a good sign for Where's the Remote.

Treat Gently, the second choice, is perhaps the most interesting runner of the group. A five year old mare, she ran fourth in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes last month and been a fairly consistent performer.

Unusual Suspect, a six year old male, is also running. One of my favorite horses, he has made fifty-four starts and comes into this race off of a runner-up finish in the California Cup Classic Stakes.

Temple City, currently 8-1, won the Cougar II Handicap on the Del Mar main track earlier this year. Marlang has proven to be a very nice horse and will likely attempt to go wire-to-wire. Longshots Buenos Dias, Worth Repeating, and Big Shot Syd complete the field.

My picks. . .

1 Where's the Remote
2 Treat Gently
3 Unusual Suspect
4 Buenos Dias
5 Marlang
6 Worth Repeating
7 Temple City
8 Big Shot Syd

-Keelerman

THANK YOU, ZENYATTA

When I first sat down to write this post, I wasn’t sure what to say. At first, I was going to write a recap of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But what could I say that hasn’t already been said?

I thought about writing out a list of the records that Zenyatta has set over the course of her long career. Most money earned by a female race horse in North America, most consecutive wins, most wins in the Vanity Handicap, most wins in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, most wins in the Lady's Secret Stakes, first filly or mare to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, etc., etc.

But let's be honest. Zenyatta is more than numbers and records. Much, much more.

She is unforgettable memories.

I remember when I first heard about Zenyatta. It was right after she won the Apple Blossom Handicap in 2008. I thought to myself, "Hmm, an undefeated filly. She'll be a fun horse to follow. She certainly has an unusual name. I hope I don't forget it. . ."

I didn't.

I remember when she won the 2008 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. I was cheering hard for her that day, and watching the replay later I remember thinking that she was one of the most amazing horses I had ever seen. There were some very nice horses behind her that day, including Ginger Punch, Cocoa Beach, and Music Note, but she just blew past them under a hand ride as if they were nothing. One must watch the race to believe it, for words do not do it justice.

I remember the 2008 Eclipse awards. Curlin was my favorite horse at the time, and I was desperately hoping that he had done enough to win his second consecutive Horse of the Year honor. I wasn't sure how winning the Dubai World Cup and losing the Breeders' Cup Classic would hold up against Zenyatta's undefeated season, but let's just say that I was more than happy when Curlin took home the award yet again.

That was the last (and only) time I would root against Zenyatta.
I remember the 2009 Vanity Handicap, where Zenyatta toted a remarkable 129 pounds to an easy victory. That same day, Rachel Alexandra won the Mother Goose Stakes by twenty lengths. Being a huge fan of both horses, it was a very exciting day. That was when I started comparing Zenyatta to Ruffian.

I remember the 2009 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, where Zenyatta's tremendous strides just got her up in time to win by a head on a track that she didn't care for. This was when I realized that Zenyatta was something more than just a great racehorse. She closed her last five sixteenths in about :28 2/5 seconds, which is simply amazing. But words once again don't do justice.

I remember the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic. Although I picked her to win, I had no idea as to if she could actually defeat the best males in the country. It would be the hardest task she had ever undertaken. Still, I just reminded myself that she still had a gear or two that she had never used before.

I remember when she turned for home on November 7th at Santa Anita Park, in what was to be her final career start. When Mike Smith guided her in between horses and steered her to the outside of Twice Over, I thought it was all over. No ordinary horse could have caught the leaders at that point.

But Zenyatta is no ordinary horse. She found another gear in the stretch and blew right past Gio Ponti to win by a neck. At the time, I had no idea who she had beaten. I thought for a moment that it was Einstein who had gamely finished second. But it didn't really matter to me, for the mare I had enjoyed for a year and a half had achieved the next-to-impossible. It remains the greatest race I have ever watched.

Zenyatta was retired after that. I remember feeling disappointed; as one always does when their favorite horse retires. I wondered what might have happened if Zenyatta had stayed in training one more year. Perhaps she could have broken Citation and Cigar's famous sixteen-win streak in unrestricted races. We would never know.

Or would we?

In early January 2010, the announcement came that Zenyatta would remain in training for one more year, to attempt a repeat victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic. I was elated. She was back for one more year.

I remember when she fought her way through traffic to win the Santa Margarita Handicap under 127 pounds. It was her first start in four months, and to do what she did in her first start back was incredible. The fact that it came on my birthday made it even more special.

I remember her hard-fought third-consecutive victory in the Vanity Handicap. Going into the race I wasn't sure if she was going to be able to spot St. Trinians 9 pounds, for St. Trinians is a very good racehorse. For a brief moment my heart stopped, as it appeared that St. Trinians was going to hold off Zenyatta, but the great big mare shifted gears and got up in the final yards for a half-length victory. I was ecstatic.

Almost lost in all of the excitement was the fact that she had broken Citation and Cigar's win streak. It took sixty-one years for it to fall, a time period that saw horses like Secretariat, Dr. Fager, Kelso, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, and others stake their claims as the greatest horses to have ever run. However, none of them could break the record. It took a horse like Zenyatta to do it.

It may take another sixty-one years before her record falls.

I remember when she won the Ladies' Secret Stakes for the third straight year just six weeks ago. It looked as though she couldn't possibly catch Switch, but she somehow managed to do so inside the final few yards. By winning her nineteenth consecutive race, she tied the modern-day North American record for most victories held by Pepper's Pride. However, Pepper's Pride's streak had been achieved while running in state-restricted races. Therefore, in unrestricted races, Zenyatta's record stands alone.

I remember her loss in the Breeders’ Cup Classic just a few days ago. Despite dropping nearly twenty lengths off the pace on the first turn, Zenyatta did what she always does, overcoming adversity to rally from impossibly far back in the stretch. Unfortunately, for the first time in her career, the finish line came before her colossal strides could carry her the final inches to victory.

I remember the feeling of disappointment immediately following her defeat, a feeling that disappeared when I realized what she had accomplished in defeat. Very few horses could have done what she did, and under the circumstances, I have my doubts that even Secretariat could have come that close.

But most of all I will remember her. Her dancing prior to a race, her charisma, her unbelievable ability, her personality. I will never forget the image of her turning for home under Mike Smith and flying to one victory after another. She created countless records over the course of her career, yes, but more importantly, she created countless memories.

Years from now, I will look back and fondly remember these last three summers, when the great big mare took a hold of horse racing and made it her own, dominating the sport like no other horse before her.

Many of her records stand alone. But numbers on a chart don't do justice to what she means to her vast legion of fans. She is something else entirely; something that cannot be expressed with numbers, charts, or words.

Perhaps someday her name will make it into dictionaries. If so, I know how I would define it.

ZENYATTA (adj) Cannot be described; beyond description.

Thanks for all of the memories, Zenyatta. You've made horse racing that much more special to me.

-Keelerman

BLAME WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC!

Blame pulled off a stunning upset in the Breeders' Cup Classic, holding off the previously undefeated Zenyatta to win by a short head.

Blame sat far off of the early pace set by Espoir City and Quality Road. He made a strong run in between horses to take the lead in the stretch and found just enough to hold off Zenyatta in the final strides.

Zenyatta dropped farther off of the pace than usual, sitting about twenty lengths from the front in the early going. Mike Smith started asking her for some run on the backstretch, and the six year old mare responded as the field turned into the homestretch. Steered to the outside by Smith, Zenyatta closed relentlessly in the final furlong but just could not get to the winner, although she passed him a couple strides after the wire.

Fly Down finished third, followed by Lookin at Lucky. Quality Road faded as the field turned for home.

The final time was 2:02 2/5.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP UPDATE SATURDAY #8

5:10;

Well, Dangerous Midge proved to be the best in the Breeders' Cup Turf, sitting just off of the early pace and out running Champ Pegasus in the stretch to score by far the biggest victory of his career.

The next race is the big one --- the 27th running of the Breeders' Cup Classic. It is currently 36 minutes away. Zenyatta has opened as the 3-5 favorite, with Lookin at Lucky the second choice at 4-1. Blame is 7-1; Quality Road 9-1. Haynesfield, 12-1 on the morning line, has doubled to 24-1.

This is much more than just a horse race --- this is history. No horse has ever been in the position Zenyatta is right now; undefeated with a chance to win her second consecutive Breeders' Cup Classic. Already Zenyatta has etched her name in among those of the greatest horses to have ever graced the American turf, and a victory here tonight would elevate her to the status of immortal; forever remembered as one of the all time greats. A win here tonight would rank her with Spectacular Bid, Seattle Slew --- even Secretariat. A victory here tonight would allow her to go out on her highest note yet; perfect, relatively unchallenged, and forever a part of history. Win or lose, this will likely go down in history as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, race in the history of the Breeders' Cup.

Win or lose, thanks for all of the great memories Zenyatta!

5:23;

Twenty-five minutes to post now. . . over $1,670,000 has been bet on Zenyatta to win. Roughly $570,000 has been placed on Lookin at Lucky to win. Therefore, Zenyatta is the favorite by $1,100,000. Wow.

The big four --- Zenyatta, Lookin at Lucky, Blame, and Quality Road --- are all 8-1 or less. The fifth choice, Haynesfield, is 21-1. If you like Musket Man, he's 30-1. Espoir City is 37-1. Etched? 59-1.

As I promised earlier, here are my picks. . .

1 Zenyatta
2 Musket Man
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Blame
5 Paddy O'Prado
6 Quality Road
7 Etched
8 First Dude
9 Haynesfield
10 Fly Down
11 Pleasant Prince
12 Espoir City

Whoever wins, it's going to be a fabulous race. A loss by Zenyatta here will not detract from her incredible career. She has probably done more for racing than any other horse over the last ten years and win, lose, or draw, she is a great champion.

5:35;

It's now just thirteen minutes to post time! This will be my last live update until after the race. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

DANGEROUS MIDGE WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP TURF!

Dangerous Midge sat just off of the early lead and outfought Champ Pegasus to the wire, winning the Breeders' Cup Turf in an 8-1 upset.

Champ Pegasus set the early pace, with Dangerous Midge tracking him on the outside. Behkabad was sitting third along the rail, with Telling and Debussy right behind him. The pace was slow, with fractions of :50 and 1:15 4/5.

As the field turned for home, Champ Pegasus still held the lead, but Dangerous Midge was coming hard on the outside and put the leader away to score by just over two lengths.

Heavily favored Behkabad finished third, followed by Winchester.

The final time was 2:29 2/5.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP UPDATE SATURDAY #7

4:33;

Well, Dakota Phone pulled off another major upset, just nosing out Morning Line is the final strides to win by a nose at odds of 37-1.

Does anyone else think that the odds of having a second carryover are pretty good?

The next race will be the Breeders' Cup Turf. The seventh of eight Breeders' Cup races today, the scratch of Workforce has allowed Behkabad to open as the 9-5 favorite. The 3-1 third choice is Winchester, with Al Khali at 7-2. The longshot is Telling at 18-1.

4:38;

Well, in a little more than an hour the Classic will have been run and the long anticipated results will finally be know. I'll say this much --- Mike Smith deserves a win, for he has had a pretty bad day today, finishing off the board on both Jaycito and Proviso.

4:46;

Behkabad has dropped to 3-2 now. Otherwise, the odds haven't changed much. Dangerous Midge is 8-1; Debussy is 6-1. Winchester and Al Khali have risen slightly, they are now 7-2 and 4-1, respectively.

4:55;

Three minutes to post now! Behkabad is now the 6-5 favorite. Interestingly, Champ Pegasus, despite having won two consecutive graded stakes races, is one of the longest shot in the field at 9-1.

It's post time now! I'll post the results momentarily.

-Keelerman