Welcome back to Triple Crown Countdown! With the Breeders' Cup concluded and several great two-year-old races being run this weekend, I decided that now is as good a time as any to start thinking about the 2011 Triple Crown.
The heavy favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Derby at the moment is Uncle Mo, impressive winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, my pick for the Derby is currently To Honor and Serve. A son of Bernardini, the colt is running in the grade II Remsen Stakes on Saturday, which happens to be this week's Feature Race.
FEATURE RACE ---- Remsen Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/8 Miles at Aqueduct
The Remsen Stakes, a important early prep race for the 2011 Triple Crown series, has drawn a solid field of seven, led by the above-mentioned To Honor and Serve. The colt has won two of his three starts, breaking his maiden second time out at Belmont Park by almost nine lengths before easily winning the grade II Nashua Stakes by 4 lengths. Trained by Bill Mott, he has drawn gate five and will be ridden by John Velazquez. He will carry top weight of 120 pounds.
Bandbox, undefeated in three starts, has an excellent chance as well. Although he has never raced beyond seven furlongs, he has shown to be a very versatile colt and should be able to handle any pace scenario. Trained by Rodney Jenkins, Bandbox won the Charles Town Juvenile Stakes by nearly ten lengths before Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont Park by a length and a quarter. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
Buffum, the 2-1 morning line second choice, looks like a colt with a lot of potential. The son of Bernardini has only raced once, desperately hanging on to win a one mile maiden special weight by a nose. The final time was a decent 1:36 4/5, and he has every chance to improve off of it here. I would not be surprised at all if he is a factor in the stretch.
He is trained by Thomas Albertraini, and will be ridden by David Cohen. He will carry 116 pounds.
Mountain Town, 6-1 on the morning line, has a big chance as well. The son of Cape Town overcome a tough trip to win a 5-1/2 furlong claiming race by a head, coming from ten lengths back. This impressive performance was enough to warrant a start in the grade I Champagne Stakes. Although he was no match for Uncle Mo, finishing five lengths behind the likely juvenile champion, he did finish second, ten lengths clear of the third place finisher. If he runs that well tomorrow, he is capable of winning this race. Trained by Rick Dutrow, he will be ridden by C. Velasquez and will carry 116 pounds.
This brings us to Mucho Macho Man, a son of Macho Uno. From four starts, he has recorded a win, two seconds, and a third. He began his career by finishing second to Gourmet Dinner in a maiden special weight race. Gourmet Dinner won the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot last week.
Mucho Macho Man then ran third to Curlinello in another maiden special weight. Curlinello has finished second in two stakes races since then. He then broke through with a victory over Bellamy's Boss in a maiden special weight. Stepped up into stakes company, he finished second to To Honor and Serve in the Nashua Stakes. He is trained by Katherine Ritvo and will be ridden by Eibar Coa. He will carry 116 pounds.
Pants On Fire and Economic Summit have scratched.
This race should have a large impact on the Triple Crown Trail next year, and I'm very excited about the potential these juveniles have shown.
My picks are. . .
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Mountain Town
3 Bandbox
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Buffum
Who do you like?
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
Another race which will likely have a major impact on the 2011 Triple Crown Trail is the grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Super Saver, this year's Kentucky Derby winner, proved best in the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club. Therefore, I will be paying close attention to the winner of this race, which has drawn a field of seven.
The 6-5 morning line favorite is Astrology. A son of A. P. Indy, he began his career by finishing third in a maiden special weight. He broke through with a win in a maiden special weight over To Honor and Serve, which definitely bodes well for his chances today. A third place finish in the Garden State Stakes to Sweet Ducky and Curlinello was followed up by a dominant win in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) over the Churchill Downs main track. The fact that he has a victory over this track makes him the deserving favorite here.
The second choice here is Santiva. He has yet to break his maiden, but he did finish second in the grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity. He has a very strong late run and should be charging in the stretch.
Major Gain, winner of the grade III Arlington-Washington Futurity, is the 4-1 co-third choice. However, he could only manage a fifth-place finish in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity and has never run on dirt.
Cane Garden Bay turned in a brilliant performance in the maiden special weight, winning the seven furlong event by a length and a quarter in a sharp 1:22 1/5. He has run well on both dirt and synthetic and his late kick appears to be very potent.
It is difficult to pick from this fine group of horses, but here are my selections. . .
1 Cane Garden Bay
2 Astrology
3 Santiva
4 Major Gain
5 Halo's Thunder
6 Prideofthechapter
7 Enable
One race prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is a one mile allowance race for two year olds. Brethren, a Todd Pletcher-trained son of Distorted Humor is a half-brother to Super Saver, and won a maiden special weight by a half-length, scorching six furlongs in 1:08 4/5. If he runs that well tomorrow, he is definitely a colt to watch next year.
For two-year-old fillies, there is the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) and the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II). Both have drawn good fields, with Kathmanblu the morning line favorite in the Golden Rod and Believe in A. P. the favorite in the Demoiselle. Both ran well in the Breeders' Cup, with Kathmanblu finishing third in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Believe in A. P. finishing fourth in the Juvenile Fillies. Both appear to have excellent chances at winning their respective races and although I won't make any official selections, I will be watching both races.
On Monday, I will post my first official "Keelerman's Top Twenty" of 2011, a list of my top twenty picks for the 2011 classics. Be sure to check back for it!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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