JUVENILE TURF THOUGHTS

Here are ten handicapping thoughts regarding the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, one of the trickier races to decipher of the fourteen Breeders' Cup races. . .

1. European colts have won two of the three runnings of this race, with Pounced in 2009 and Donativum in 2008. In 2007, the one year in which a European colt did not win the race, Archill Hill, a European, finished second, beaten by a half-length.

2. Soldat probably doesn't care for yielding turf. In the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) over a firm turf course, he won by three lengths, getting a mile and a sixteenth in 1:41.37. Seven lengths behind him, finishing fourth, was Air Support. In Soldat's next start, the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III) over a yielding turf course, he was beaten a length and a half by Air Support, who ran a mile and a sixteenth in 1:47 4/5.

3. Banned could run the best race of his life here, as he comes off of an impressive score in a $49,000 allowance race at Keeneland where he won by five lengths. Granted, the final time was only 1:38, but he is most likely capable of better.

4. Mantoba looks like a very good European colt after winning an allowance race at Newmarket last time out by an easy 2 1/4 lengths. He was carrying 129 pounds that day and gets into the Juvenile Turf carrying only 122 pounds. Hmm. . .

5. Although Madman Diaries has never gone beyond six furlongs, I would not be surprised to see him do what Bridgetown did last year, set a slow pace and hang around for second. Bridgetown has since become a very good sprinter. Can Madman Diaries do the same?

6. Humble and Hungry seems to a capable enough colt. He broke his maiden last time out in a one mile turf race at Belmont Park, winning by a length and a quarter after going three wide all the way. He could improve off of that race and seems to have some stamina.

7. Master of Hounds is coming into this race having raced in the group I Racing Post Trophy Stakes at Doncaster on October 23rd. He may be racing again a bit quickly, but he is bred to win this race and looks very classy.

8. Dux Scholar, another European invader, must not be ignored based off of his strong second to Klammer in the group III Horris Hill Stakes, where he was beaten a nose.

9. Utely looks like a possibility here. Although he faded in his last start, the group I Grand Criterium at Longchamp, that seven furlong race was run in a very good time (1:23) and looks very intriguing here.

10. Trainer John Gosden has won this race two years in a row, which make Utely even more interesting.

-Keelerman