This is the day that every horse racing fan has been waiting for ---- November 6th. The day that Zenyatta takes on the best in the world as she attempts to win her second consecutive Breeders' Cup Classic and retire undefeated, a perfect 20-for-20.
There are eight Breeders' Cup races to be run tomorrow, including the Classic. Several of them lack a heavy favorite. A couple of them will be nearly impossible to handicap. But it is comforting to know that someone has to win every race, and win or lose, it's going to be an exciting day of racing.
I'll begin by handicapping the Juvenile Turf, the first Breeders' Cup race on the Saturday card. . .
JUVENILE TURF
I'm fairly certain that the Europeans are the key to this thirteen horse field; they have been running against the best on the other side of the world and should have every chance at beating their American counterparts.
Of the three Europeans entered in this race, I like Utely best. Trained by John Gosden, he could only manage a fifth place finish in the Gran Criterium at Longchamp in France, but that was over a soft course. The son of Smart Strike is eligible to improve on a firmer surface.
As for the other Europeans, I believe that Master of Hounds is coming back from his last race a bit quick, but I do like Mantoba's chances. The latter won an allowance race in England by over two lengths going a mile, and looks like a serious contender.
From the United States, Soldat, Air Support, and Pluck will all be well bet. However, it is the 10-1 shot Banned who I like the most. He broke his maiden quite easily last time out and appears to be sitting on a big performance.
Here are my picks for this wide-open race. . .
1 Utely
2 Banned
3 Mantoba
4 Pluck
5 Master of Hounds
6 Soldat
7 Madman Diaries
8 Air Support
9 Humble and Hungry
10 Wilcox Inn
11 Rough Sailing
12 Deciphering Slew
13 Typhoon Slew
SPRINT
Another very difficult-to-handicap race, the Breeders' Cup Sprint has drawn a twelve horse field, with the morning line favorite being Girolamo. He won the Vosburgh Stakes last time out, but six furlongs may be just a bit too short for him.
Leading up to this race, I was fairly certain that I was going to go with Big Drama. Unfortunately, he drew the rail and I just don't think that he can overcome that kind of a handicap.
Therefore, I decided to look for value.
Wise Dan ran very well last time out in the Phoenix Stakes, defeating a couple of very good horses in Hollywood Hit and Warrior's Reward. He has a win over this track and should get a good trip.
Also interesting is Kinsale King, although he hasn't raced in several months. He won the Dubai Golden Shaheen earlier this year, but didn't run very well in two starts on turf in England. His task will be difficult, winning this race off of such a long layoff, but he should not be ignored.
Then there is Smiling Tiger, who has a brilliant workout here at Churchill Downs the other day and seems ready to run his absolute best race. The three-year-old has two grade I wins over his elders.
However, the horse that I am really anticipating watching is Pashito the Che. He ran very well in his last start, the Hard Spun Stakes at Delaware Park, but he is taking a large step up in class. I do believe that he is capable of hitting the board at a large price.
So after many days of thought, here are my picks. . .
1 Smiling Tiger
2 Wise Dan
3 Big Drama
4 Pashito the Che
5 Kinsale King
6 Warrior's Reward
7 Atta Boy Roy
8 Girolamo
9 Hamazing Destiny
10 Riley Tucker
11 Supreme Summit
12 Cash Refund
I could go all over the place here, picking any of my top seven picks. They appear to be very evenly matched and I just don't know who the best one is. But I was impressed with Smiling Tiger's last race and he has been training nicely. I almost picked Wise Dan on top, but I'm not exactly sure just how good his performance in the Phoenix really was.
But whoever wins, the Sprint is always a great race to watch and I'll be enjoying it.
TURF SPRINT
If you thought that the Juvenile Turf and Sprint were hard to handicap, this race is at least twice as difficult and four times as confusing. There are fourteen horses entered to run, and I would not be surprised if any of them won. They are very evenly matched and this is the kind of race where you just pick a name from a hat and hope for the best.
There are eight horses that I really, really like here ---- Central City, Chamberlain Bridge, Due Date, Quick Enough, Rose Catherine, Silver Timber, Stradivinsky, and Unzip Me. As you can see, narrowing this race down to one horse is nearly impossible.
Silver Timber won the Churchill Downs Turf Sprint Stakes by a neck here back in April, and won the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland last time out. However, he had lost his two starts prior to that and could only manage a sixth place finish in last year's Turf Sprint.
Rose Catherine, a three year old filly, has already run well in the Breeders' Cup. She ran second in last year's Juvenile Fillies Turf. Since then, she has proven herself to be a very fine turf sprinter and won the Turf Amazon Handicap over West Ocean and Canadian Ballet last time out. She is very quick and should get a perfect trip.
Chamberlain Bridge had won three straight races, including the Turf Monster Handicap, coming into the Woodford Stakes against Silver Timber. Dropping back to last, he rallied furiously but ended up fourth, beaten a length and a half.
On the other hand, he missed his final Breeders' Cup workout due to a foot abscess. His trainer is confident that it won't matter, but I can't help but wonder. Also, he drew the rail, making his task even more difficult.
Central City ran a great race in the Woodford, finishing second, beaten a half-length. It was his first start in several months, and he does have a good performance over the Churchill turf. He could offer some real value.
Due Date is one of the few horses in this race who comes from off the pace, and he could prove very dangerous here. He finished a late running third in the Woodford Stakes, a nose behind Central City, and will benefit from the expected quick pace.
Quick Enough won the Morvich Handicap last time out in a front running effort, Stradivinsky won the Jaipur Handicap at Belmont Park before running third to Chamberlain Bridge in the Turf Monster Handicap, and Unzip Me has been running fast times against fillies and mares in California and Canada.
I have gone back and forth between all of these horses for weeks, and here's what I finally came up with in the way of picks. . .
1 Silver Timber
2 Rose Catherine
3 Central City
4 Unzip Me
5 Chamberlain Bridge
6 Due Date
7 Stradivinsky
8 Grand Adventure
9 Quick Enough
10 California Flag
11 Bridgetown
12 Canadian Ballet
13 Tropic Storm
14 Waveline
JUVENILE
Boys against Mo ---- you are either a fan of one or the other. If you are part of the minority group that picked someone else. . . you're with me.
As impressive as Boys at Tosconova and Uncle Mo have been, I'm afraid that I just couldn't pick either of them. The colt I like is Jaycito, who overcame a horrible trip to win the Norfolk Stakes last time out over a very nice colt in J P's Gusto.
True, it's very difficult to pick against Uncle Mo. Any horse who can win the Champagne Stakes in 1:34 2/5 deserves immense respect. But this will be his first time on dirt, and Jaycito has the powerful synthetic-to-dirt angle going for him.
As for Boys at Tosconova, I'm worried about the fact that he is coming into this race having not raced since early September. In addition, this will be his first start beyond seven furlongs.
A couple of other interesting horses are J P's Gusto and Murjan. Like I mentioned above, J P's Gusto ran second to Jaycito in the Norfolk. Prior to that, he had won four consecutive stakes races. Like Jaycito, he is eligible to improve on dirt and may be overlooked in the betting. Murjan has won all three of his starts in Peru, is proven on dirt, but is taking a big step up in class. Still, at 30-1 on the morning line he is a very interesting colt.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Jaycito
2 Uncle Mo
3 Murjan
4 J P's Gusto
5 Boys at Tosconova
6 Stay Thirsty
7 Biondetti
8 Rogue Romance
9 J. B.'s Thunder
10 Riveting Reason
I'm afraid I just don't believe that Boys at Tosconova can win this race. I may switch my pick to Uncle Mo later today if he looks really good in the post parade or something similar, but for now my pick is Jaycito.
MILE
Almost as exciting as Zenyatta going for her second Classic victory is Goldikova's quest for her third consecutive Breeders' Cup Mile ---- a feat that has yet to be accomplished in twenty-six years of Breeders' Cup history.
To date, only one horse has even attempted to win three straight Breeders' Cup races ---- Lure won the Mile two consecutive times, but ran poorly in his attempt to win a third. Interestingly, the Breeders' Cup was being held at Churchill Downs the year he failed. . .
Hopefully, Goldikova will fare better.
She will have a tough task this year, perhaps her toughest yet. She drew gate ten of eleven for today's race, which is definitely not good. Attempting to steal the Mile out from under her will be her longtime rival Paco Boy, the ever-game Gio Ponti, a California speedball named Sidney's Candy, a winner of four consecutive grade I races in Proviso, and a host of other classy stakes winners.
However, it can be argued that Goldikova is better this year than ever before ---- and she will get the firm turf course that she loves. Therefore, I'm going to pick her to win even though she is likely vulnerable.
For second, it's tough to say. Proviso is a very nice mare, but drew gate eleven. Gio Ponti is a monster and was very impressive in his last start, but beating Goldikova is going to be a much tougher task.
Court Vision could offer a decent price and a good chance at stealing a piece of the money. At 12-1 on the morning line, he brings excellent credentials into the race. He ran a close fourth in last year's Mile and comes off of a sharp win in the Woodbine Mile in Canada. He should love Churchill's long homestretch and with a good trip, he'll be right there.
My picks are these. . .
1 Goldikova
2 Gio Ponti
3 Court Vision
4 Proviso
5 The Usual Q T
6 Paco Boy
7 Society's Chairman
8 Get Stormy
9 Beethoven
10 Sideny's Candy
11 Delegator
DIRT MILE
I think I have a pretty good idea on what's going to happen here, unlike most of these races. :)
My pick is Here Comes Ben, winner of the Forego Stakes last time out. He was running great at Churchill earlier this year in seven furlong races and should have no trouble stretching out to a one-turn mile. I do believe that this is his race to lose.
For second, I like Thiskyhasnolimit, who won the Iroquios Stakes here at Churchill last fall and has been training great. Overall, he is 3-for-4 at Churchill. He finished second to Lookin at Lucky last time out and should run better than his 10-1 morning line odds.
Tizway and Mad Flatter are also intriguing. Tizway ran huge in the Kelso Handicap last time out, dominating by five lengths in his first start off of a layoff, and may run even better this time. Mad Flatter ran the best race of his career last time out when he won the Spend a Buck Handicap at Calder over defending winner Mambo Meister. If he runs just as well today, he will be difficult to beat.
The morning line favorite in this race is a horse named Morning Line. Winner of the Pennsylvania Derby last time out, the lightly raced son of Tiznow looks like a very promising youngster but may be in a bit over his head.
Vineyard Haven is an interesting contender, but he did not run well in his last race, the Forego Stakes at seven furlongs, and seems to have a bit of stamina limitations. Also, he drew gate twelve, and the front-running colt may have to be used early to get good position.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Here Comes Ben
2 Thiskyhasnolimit
3 Tizway
4 Vineyard Haven
5 Gayego
6 Mad Flatter
7 Morning Line
8 Cool Coal Man
9 Hurricane Ike
10 Dakota Phone
11 Aikenite
12 Mine That Bird
TURF
The heavy favorite here is going to be Workforce, who won the Epsom Derby is record time earlier this year and last time out won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe by a neck. However, his connections have yet to guarantee that he will run, for they are concerned about the Churchill turf course being too firm due to lack of rain. Even if he does run, I'm not going to pick him. The debate over whether or not to run him leaves me wondering if he is vulnerable, and no Arc winner has ever come back to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.
I have thought long and hard about picking Behkabad, and perhaps this is being overcautious, but he has been running at Longchamp with its right-handed turns. He will probably adapt to the left-handed Churchill course just fine, but this fact does leave me with nagging doubts.
I have thought long and hard about picking Debussy. Winner of the Arlington Million back in August, he seemed to love American racing but a mile and a half may be out of his range.
I have thought long and hard about picking Dangerous Midge. The four year old colt by Lion Heart seems to be getting better and better, and was dominant in the Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial last time out, winning the eleven furlong event by four lengths. On the other hand, Lion Heart had distance limitations, which makes me wonder if Dangerous Midge has them too.
Winchester, Champ Pegasus, and Al Khali represent the best chance for the United States, but Winchester seems to do his best running at Belmont Park while Al Khali seems to have some distance limitations. Champ Pegasus seems to have a lot of talent, but really hasn't been tested yet.
Telling has talent, being a two-time winner of the Sword Dancer at Saratoga, but doesn't seem to run that great elsewhere.
So my picks are these. . .
1 Behkabad
2 Dangerous Midge
3 Workforce
4 Champ Pegasus
5 Winchester
6 Al Khali
7 Debussy
8 Telling
I really couldn't figure this race out. I almost picked Dangerous Midge on top, but felt that Behkabad has run better and more consistently.
Then, right as I am typing this, I check the horse racing news and find that Workforce has been scratched. This surprises and disappoints me, for I didn't think that they would scratch him after coming all this way. I was looking forward to seeing him run, but if his connections felt that it wasn't a good idea to run him, that's more important than any horse race.
So my new picks are these. . .
1 Behkabad
2 Dangerous Midge
3 Champ Pegasus
4 Winchester
5 Al Khali
6 Debussy
7 Telling
CLASSIC
This is the race that everyone has anticipated. For months, Zenyatta has been aimed for a repeat performance on the biggest stage in racing.
There is no way that I can pick against the spectacular mare, whom I feel is one of the greatest racehorses of all time. I do believe that she likes dirt better than synthetics, I do believe that her best distance is a mile and a quarter or further, and I do believe that she can beat Blame, Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky, and all of the other fine colts that will be running against her.
As I have not quite finished handicapping the race, I will not list my full picks. I will post them later today. But Zenyatta is my pick on top, as she nears the final start of her long, illustrious career. A victory here would allow her to retire 20-for-20 with three Breeders' Cup wins, including one of the Classic. In my opinion, that would rank her among the top ten racehorses of all time.
Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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