BREEDERS' CUP FRIDAY PICKS

At long last, the moment everyone has been waiting for has arrived.

The Breeders' Cup is finally here.

On Saturday, in the Breeders' Cup Classic, Zenyatta will take on the best males in the country as she attempts to retire undefeated with twenty wins. A few races prior, Goldikova will go for her unprecedented third consecutive Breeders' Cup Mile victory.

But before all that happens, there is Breeders' Cup Friday, which consists of the five races restricted to fillies & mares, as well as the Breeders' Cup Marathon. I shall handicap these races today and make my picks.

I'll begin with the Marathon.

MARATHON

I've gone back and forth here for a while now, and I'm still not certain who to pick. I love Prince Will I Am's pedigree, and he should relish the mile and three quarters distance, but I just can't convince myself to pick him, partly because his biggest success has come on turf.

The morning line favorite is Awesome Gem, and he certainly seems like a horse who would love the added distance, but I have this nagging feeling that fourteen furlongs is a bit out of his range.

One horse that intrigues me is the 10-1 shot Bright Horizon. A three year old shipper from Europe, he is trained by Aidan O'Brien and comes into the Breeders' Cup off of a very easy victory going two miles in Ireland. Now, that race was on turf, but because he has won over two miles, I'll take him over Prince Will I Am.

Then of course, there is the other European, Precision Break. He tired badly and finished sixteenth in his last start, the two and a quarter mile Totesport.com Cesarewitch Handicap, but that race is a half mile longer than the upcoming Marathon. However, I can't pick him over Bright Horizon.

Giant Oak and A. U. Miner are also interesting. The two-three finishers in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, the former is bred to run all day and seems to never tire, while the latter won the Greenwood Cup two starts back going a mile and a half. A. U. Miner will also be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is a big plus.

So after considerable thought, here are my top three picks. . .

1 Bright Horizon
2 A. U. Miner
3 Prince Will I Am
4 Giant Oak
5 Awesome Gem
6 Romp
7 Precision Break
8 Eldaafer
9 Alcomo
10 Atoned
11 Gabriel's Hill
12 Million Seller

Let me also take a moment to mention Romp. The six-year-old gelding won a ten furlong allowance race at Oak Tree last time out, which was his fourth win in forty-four starts. However, he has been in decent form this year and might handle the fourteen furlongs better than most. 50-1 is very interesting.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

The obvious standout here is Winter Memories, based off of her explosive victory in the Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. III) last time out and her sharp workouts since then. She will be very tough to beat indeed. However, there are plenty of fine fillies in this race that are capable of pulling off an upset.

First off, there is Wyomia. 12-1 on the morning line, her lone start on turf yielded a fifth place finish in her maiden race, but she has become quite a bit better since then. Her victory in the Mazarine Stakes (gr. III) on Woodbine's synthetic track was very sharp and she defeated a nice filly in Delightful Mary. She should be in contention at the top of the stretch.

Then there are the four European shippers: Flood Plain, Quiet Oasis, Tale Untold, and Together. It's hard to pick which one is best, for Tale Untold and Together seem to be pretty evenly matched and the others aren't too far behind.

Together finished second in the group I Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile Stakes, beaten a neck by White Moonstone while finishing a length and a quarter in front of Theysken's Theory. She ran third in her next start a week later, an allowance race over seven furlongs. However, she was only beaten a neck by Masaya and Tale Untold. Add that to the fact that she is trained by Aidan O'Brian and will be running on Lasix for the first time and you have yourself a very tough little contender. Unfortunately, she drew gate thirteen.

Tale Untold has made four starts, but has only emerged victorious from one of them. However, she has yet to be beaten by more than a length and three quarters and has lost her last two races by two noses, including the allowance race where she beat Together. Trained by Brian Meehan, she will be running with Lasix for the first time and could prove tough to beat at odds of 15-1.

New Normal could get the best trip, however, and it would not be surprising to see her win. Last time out, she went wire-to-wire in the one mile Natalma Stakes (gr. III) on the turf at Woodbine and has Javier Castellano in the saddle, which is a big plus.

So here are my picks. . .

1 New Normal
2 Winter Memories
3 Allure d'Amour
4 Together
5 Kathmanblu
6 Tale Untold
7 Wyomia
8 More Than Real
9 Quiet Oasis
10 Fancy Point
11 Flood Plain
12 Dos Lunas
13 Arch Support
14 Forest Legend

It's very difficult to pick against a horse like Winter Memories, and it's even harder to pick against the Europeans, but I was extremely impressed with New Normal's run in the Natalma Stakes and she should be just as tough to beat tomorrow.

On the other hand, I can make a strong case for Winter Memories and at this time, I’m not sure if I will actual stick with New Normal. If I do change my pick, I will post it here on my blog prior to the race.

As for the others, Allure d'Amour was very impressive breaking her maiden for Todd Pletcher and should only improve entering this race.

Together is likely the best of the Europeans, but I’m just not sure how well is going to handle gate thirteen.

On a side note, if Nina Fever draws into the Juvenile Turf, forget everything I just said. If she draws into the race, than I do believe that she is capable of a top three finish.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

This is practically a pick-a-name-from-a-hat-and-hope-for-the-best type of race. With fourteen runners and two also-eligibles, the race is wide open. Whoever wins will likely be voted the Champion Female Sprinter at the Eclipse awards.

Prior to the post-position draw, it was fairly obvious who the horses to beat were --- Rightly So, Dubai Majesty, and Champagne d'Oro. Unfortunately, those three drew post positions twelve, thirteen, and fourteen, respectively. So, if you want to take a stand against them, there is plenty of value available.

How about Gabby's Golden Gal? She has not raced since winning the Santa Monica Handicap (gr. I) in January, but in that race she defeated Proviso, who has won four consecutive grade I races since then. She has been training nicely and if she is ready to run, she will be dangerous.

Informed Decision, winner of this race last year at Santa Anita, seems to have lost a step this year and has never liked dirt as well as synthetics. But she may just get a good trip tomorrow and if so, I would not be surprised to see her rally for a piece of the money.

Then there is Evening Jewel. She has not sprinted in a while, but she finished second, beaten a nose, in the Kentucky Oaks here at Churchill Downs back in April and has shown early speed in the past. Seven furlongs may be exactly what she wants.

Sara Louise, from the powerful Godolphin Racing, is eligible to improve in her second start off of a length layoff. My Jen, who beat Sara Louise in the Gallant Bloom Handicap, should be running late if the pace is quick.

I have gone back and forth and back and forth with my picks here, but I finally came up with these. . .

1 Dubai Majesty
2 Champagne d'Oro
3 Gabby's Golden Gal
4 Evening Jewel
5 Sara Louise
6 Informed Decision
7 My Jen
8 Rightly So
9 Secret Gypsy
10 Rinterval
11 Moontune Missy
12 Jessica is Back
13 Sweet August Moon
14 Switch

It's very possible that Dubai Majesty can't get seven furlongs, and it's even more possible that she will get a poor trip due to her post position, but she ran so well here at Churchill Downs earlier this year and is in such great form that I have to pick her. Champagne d'Oro loves seven furlongs, but drew a terrible post position. I would pick Gabby's Golden Gal if she had just a bit more seasoning under her, but having not raced since January, I can't make her my top pick.

JUVENILE FILLIES

Like the Filly & Mare Sprint, this is a very difficult race to handicap, but at least here there are a few standouts to pick from.

The morning line favorite is A Z Warrior, winner of the Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park last time out. However, she has yet to run in a two-turn race, which makes her a little bit of a question mark.

Second choice on the morning line is R Heat Lightning, who finished second to A Z Warrior in the Frizette. Prior to that performance, she was the impressive winner of the Spinaway Stakes. Trained by Todd Pletcher, she also has never gone two turns.

However, I like the third and fourth choices, Awesome Feather and Tell a Kelly. Awesome Feather is undefeated in five starts, won her last race by eight lengths, and has traveled around two-turns before. However, she is taking a large step up in class. Tell a Kelly was extremely impressive while winning the Darley Debutante Stakes at Del Mar, but could manage only a second place finish in the Oak Leaf Stakes going two-turns for the first time. However, she does have what I call the Borel Factor in her favor, as she will be ridden by the King of Churchill Downs for the first time.

Also interesting are Delightful Mary and Believe in A. P. The former won her first two starts at Woodbine before running second in the Mazarine Stakes. She has been training very nicely at Churchill Downs. The latter broke her maiden by almost thirteen lengths last time out and seems to have a lot of untapped potential.

Like I said, handicapping this race is difficult, but here are my picks. . .

1 Tell a Kelly
2 Awesome Feather
3 A Z Warrior
4 Believe in A.P.
5 Indian Gracey
6 Delightful Mary
7 R Heat Lightning
8 Theysken's Theory
9 Joyful Victory
10 Izshelegal
11 Jordy Y
12 Harlan's Ruby
13 Soundwave

Although I did not pick her to finish in the top three, I do believe that Indian Gracey is capable of improving here on the Churchill Downs main track. The front-running filly ran third in the Oak Leaf Stakes last time out and may be able to take this field a long way on the lead from gate one.

FILLY & MARE TURF

This race is pretty much being billed as Midday against Red Desire and it will probably come down to that.

Midday, winner of this race last year, has won three of her four starts since then, including a sharp win over Plumania in the Qatar prix Vermeille (Fr-I). Red Desire defeated Dubai World Cup winner Gloria de Campeao at Meydan earlier this year, but ran third in the Flower Bowl in her United States debut. Can she upend the defending winner?

It should be very close, but I'm going to go with Midday. She loves firm turf courses like the one that Churchill Downs is going to have tomorrow and is probably better this year than she was last year. Also, she has been carrying quite a bit more weight than Red Desire has. (On average, about nine pounds more.)

As for the contenders from the United States, I do believe that Harmonious is the best and should relish the eleven furlong distance. She won the grade I American Oaks earlier this year and won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. I) last time out. Keertana and Miss Keller shouldn't be ignored either.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Midday
2 Red Desire
3 Harmonious
4 Plumania
5 Keertana
6 Forever Together
7 Eclair de Lune
8 Miss Keller
9 Shared Account
10 Hibaayeb
11 Hot Cha Cha

LADIES' CLASSIC

The highlight of Friday's card, the Ladies' Classic has drawn a solid field of eleven, with Kentucky Oaks winner Blind Luck the 9-5 morning line favorite. Havre de Grace, who upset Blind Luck in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes last time out, is back to see if she can do it again.

Among the older mares, Life At Ten is perhaps the most accomplished. She has won two grade I races this year, including the Beldame last time out. Unfortunately, she drew the rail, which does not suit her on the lead/stalk the pace running style.

One interesting longshot is Persistently, 12-1 on the morning line. Two starts back, she defeated Rachel Alexandra in the grade I Personal Ensign Stakes going a mile and a quarter. In her one start since then, she ran third to Life At Ten and Unrivaled Belle in the Beldame. However, the Beldame was a one-turn race, and Persistently is quite a bit better going two turns.

Unrivaled Belle has been training very well at Churchill Downs and upset Rachel Alexandra in the La Troinne Stakes here earlier this year. She was unable to make up any ground on Life At Ten in the stretch of the Beldame, but she certainly stands a chance here if she gets a good trip.

And of course, you mustn't ignore Seeking the Title. She did run poorly in her last start, the Indiana Oaks, but she was racing against a tremendous speed bias that day and will be ridden by Calvin Borel today. Yes, she's a longshot, but she might (might!) just hit the board at a big price.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Blind Luck
2 Havre de Grace
3 Life At Ten
4 Persistently
5 Unrivaled Belle
6 Seeking the Title
7 Malibu Prayer
8 Milwaukee Appeal
9 Acting Happy
10 Acoma
11 It's Tea Time

It's going to be a spectacular set of races! Who do you like? Are there any longshots that you feel have a good chance at winning? Feel free to comment below!

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman