RACHEL ALEXANDRA RETIRED!

2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra has been retired from racing.

http://www.drf.com/news/rachel-alexandra-2009-horse-year-retired

I will be back with a lengthy post on the subject within the week.

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS ---- September 28th, 2010

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Quality Road
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 Cape Blanco

TURF

1 Fame and Glory
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Champ Pegasus
4 Debussy
5 Grand Rapport

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Sidney's Candy
3 Gio Ponti
4 Court Vision
5 Mafki

SPRINT

1 Discreetly Mine
2 Big Drama
3 Kinsale King
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Atta Boy Roy

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Rachel Alexandra
3 Evening Jewel
4 Havre de Grace
5 Unrivaled Belle

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Red Desire
3 Stacelita
4 Keertana
5 Check the Label

DIRT MILE

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Musket Man
3 Vineyard Haven
4 Gayego
5 Morning Line

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Rightly So
4 My Jen
5 Secret Gypsy

TURF SPRINT

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 Rose Catherine
3 California Flag
4 Bridgetown
5 West Ocean

MARATHON

1 Cloudy's Knight
2 Rezif
3 Eldaafer
4 A. U. Miner
5 Helipcopter

JUVENILE

1 Boys at Tosconova
2 Uncle Mo
3 J P's Gusto
4 Pathfork
5 Stay Thirsty

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Tell a Kelly
2 Wonderlandbynight
3 Awesome Feather
4 R Heat Lightning
5 Wickedly Perfect

JUVENILE TURF

1 Soldat
2 Bandbox
3 Major Gain
4 Bear's Future
5 Pluck

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 Theysken's Theory
2 New Normal
3 Together
4 More Than Real
5 Winter Memories

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- SEPTEMBER 26th

Yesterday's races were supposed to clear up the Breeders' Cup picture, not muddle it even more than was already. Of all the races I mentioned on my last post, almost all were upset victories. Sara Louise, First Dude, Hurricane Ike, Aces N Kings, Astrology, and Big Red Mike all fell to defeat. Several new Breeders' Cup contenders emerged, and several others lost a bit of their luster.

I'll begin this post with a recap of the Turf Amazon Handicap, last Saturday's feature race.

Here are the results. . .

1 Rose Catherine
2 West Ocean
3 Canadian Ballet
4 Lady Rizzi
5 Ashton Girl

And here were my picks. . .

1 Rose Catherine
2 West Ocean
3 Canadian Ballet
4 Lady Rizzi
5 Ashton Girl

With the scratch of Dubai Majesty, the field was left with only five runners. West Ocean was the morning line favorite, but Rose Catherine was heavily bet and ended up being sent off as the odds-on favorite.

This race really showed just how good a filly Rose Catherine is. She broke slowest of all, but quickly raced up to take the early lead, battling with Ashton Girl and Canadian Ballet. However, the first quarter mile was a tepid :22 4/5, which was probably why Rose Catherine found herself on the lead. West Ocean, sent off as the second choice, found herself in fourth early on, followed by Lady Rizzi.

With a quarter mile to go, it was Rose Catherine who still led Canadian Ballet and Ashton Girl, and was beginning to pull away. West Ocean snuck through along the rail to reach contention, but Rose Catherine wasn't stopping. She got the half mile in :45 2/5 and finished up the five furlongs in :57 2/5, winning by just under two lengths. West Ocean finished second, another two lengths clear of Canadian Ballet. Lady Rizzi passed a tiring Ashton Girl to finish fourth, meaning that the five horses finished according to the odds --- Rose Catherine was the favorite, West Ocean the second choice, Canadian Ballet the third choice, Lady Rizzi the fourth choice, and Ashton Girl the longshot.

Seeing that Canadian Ballet ran fifth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint against males last year, so it seems likely that Rose Catherine and West Ocean both deserve to be in that race this year. Time will tell if they can handle California Flag and Chamberlain Bridge, but it for now they must be considered good enough to deserve a shot at it.

The Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont Park, however, turned out some major surprises. Here are the results. . .

1 My Jen
2 Moontune Missy
3 Sara Louise
4 Qualia
5 Pretty Prolific
6 Rapport
7 Lovely Lil
8 Devil by Design

And here were my quick picks. . .

1 Rapport
2 Sara Louise
3 Qualia

After seeing the race be run, everything clicked. My pick, Rapport, was coming off of a decisive win over My Jen in the grade III Victory Ride Stakes. I forgot the fact that Saratoga on Victory Ride day had a tremendous main track speed bias, which certainly helped Rapport go wire-to-wire. When faced with tougher competition on a fair track, she folded rather quickly. My Jen, who had closed well in the Victory Ride, came flying on the far outside in the Gallant Bloom to snatch the victory away from longshot Moontune Missy at odds of 12-1, with Sara Louise rallying late for third.

The race set up as expected, with Rapport going to the early lead. However, Qualia, who typically comes from off the pace, was right with her early and refused to give up the rail. The pair dueled through a :22 4/5 opening quarter and a :46 flat half mile, with Moontune Missy getting a nice stalking trip in third. My Jen and Lovely Lil were next, followed by Devil by Design and Sara Louise. Pretty Prolific was the trailer.

As they turned for home, Rapport gave way, leaving Qualia to dual with Moontune Missy, who was coming strongly on the outside. Moontune Missy looked home free at the eighth pole, but My Jen and Sara Louise were coming with their late bids. It took My Jen the length of the stretch to catch Moontune Missy, but she got her head down first at the wire.

The final time was 1:17 flat, well off the track record but a sharp performance nonetheless. My Jen closed her final sixteenth in about :5 4/5 seconds, so she was really flying home.

Qualia should rebound nicely in her next start should she return to her off-the-pace running style, and I wouldn't give up on Rapport yet.

The Super Derby really wasn't all that surprising, but the two favorites failed to run well, leaving the horse who won the Super Derby Prelude to snatch the Super Derby as well.

Here are the results. . .

1 Apart
2 Distorted Economy
3 Hurricane Ike
4 Ricky Tick
5 Golden Moka
6 Arctic Comet

And here were my quick picks. . .

1 Distorted Economy
2 Golden Moka
3 Hurricane Ike

In the early going, it was the favorite, Hurricane Ike, who led the way. Through a challenging quarter mile of :23 1/5, Hurricane Ike held a half-length lead over the second choice Golden Moka. Apart and Distorted Economy were racing together in third, followed by long shots Arctic Comet and Ricky Tick. They pretty much didn't change positions through a half mile in :49 flat and three quarters in 1:14 3/5. Hurricane Ike was doing his best to slow the pace down and was succeeding.

However, even the snail like pace could not enable Hurricane Ike to go on, as he was passed by Distorted Economy at the eighth pole following a mile in 1:39 2/5. The latter seemed to be on his way to victory, but Super Derby Prelude winner Apart had other ideas. Charging strongly in the middle of the track, he went from two lengths behind Distorted Economy to a length-and-a-half in front as he stormed under the wire. The final time was 1:52 1/5, more than four seconds off of the track record.

Distorted Economy finished a clear second, with Hurricane Ike finding enough to hold off Ricky Tick for third. Golden Moka was a disappointing fifth, although he was beaten less than four lengths, and Arctic Comet finished last.

The Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing added yet another bizarre chapter to the story of First Dude, the colt who has been incapable of winning a stakes race. His last six races have yielded a third in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), a second in the Preakness (gr. I), a third in the Belmont (gr. I), a third in the Haskell (gr. I) and a third in the Travers (gr. I). Surely he could win a six horse grade II race?

Incredibly, he encountered bad racing luck and was beaten yet again by a previously unheralded but promising Morning Line. The latter was coming off of an eleven length victory over older horses in an allowance race, and although he had been a bit inconsistent, he looked ready to turn in a nice effort.

Nice effort indeed. He stepped up to the task and came back when headed in the stretch to win.

Here are the results. . .

1 Morning Line
2 First Dude
3 A Little Warm
4 Exhi
5 Afleet Again
6 Severe Weather

And here were my picks. . .

1 Exhi
2 First Dude
3 Morning Line
4 A Little Warm
5 Afleet Again
6 Severe Weather

The field was reduced to six after the scratch of Friend or Foe. First Dude was sent off as the favorite at about 3-2, with A Little Warm the second choice at 3-1 and Morning Line at 4-1.

Morning Line, off a bit slowly, was quickly sent to the front, but would not be alone. First Dude was being sent to the front on the far outside and the two colts hooked up to cut the first quarter mile in :23 2/5. Although First Dude dropped back just a bit, Morning Line stilled reeled off a strong :47 1/5 half mile. Exhi, who broke inward at the start, was tracking them in third, with A Little Warm biding his time in fourth. Afleet Again was way off the pace in fifth, followed by the 76-1 longshot Severe Weather.

Following a testing three quarters in 1:10 4/5, it was still Morning Line who led the way, but only by a half-length. First Dude was making yet another run on the outside, but it was A Little Warm who seemed to be moving best of all. Following a mile in 1:35 flat, the Jim Dandy winner took the lead from Morning Line and shut off First Dude at the three sixteenths pole, looking like he was on his way to victory. First Dude seemed to be on his way to another third place finish, but instead of throwing in the towel, he showed just how good he is by turning in one final, determined bid.

Morning Line was also showing just how game he was. Despite having lost the lead to A Little Warm, he found one last gear and reclaimed the lead in the final yards, and had just enough guts to hold off First Dude for a neck win. First Dude closed very strongly to nose A Little Warm for second. It was eight lengths further back to Exhi, with Afleet Again and Severe Weather completing the order of finish.

The final time was a sharp 1:47 4/5, less than a second off of the track record. Morning Line is definitely a three year old to keep an eye on, perhaps as a contender for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

The Kent Stakes for three year olds on the turf was not a surprise. The favorite, although only the third choice on the morning line, was Grand Rapport. Working for Hops was sent off as the narrow second choice over Interactif, who is always well bet but rather inconsistent.

Here are the results. . .

1 Grand Rapport
2 Workin for Hops
3 Stormy Lord
4 They Call Me Giant
5 Thunder Brew
6 Interactif
7 Lentenor
8 Majestictroubadour

Although I did not post my picks on my discussion of Saturday's races, I selected Workin for Hops and did not think that Grand Rapport could win here. I felt he was a much better colt at a mile and a half and that he would finish a let closing fourth or third at nine furlongs.

It seemed logical, but apparently it wasn't, for Grand Rapport flew home with a tremendous late run to defeat Workin for Hops by a half-length.

In the early going, it was mild longshot Stormy Lord who led the way. Workin for Hops settled into a nice spot running second, followed by Majestictroubadour and Thunder Brew. Lentenor was rating nicely in fifth, three lengths off the lead, with Grand Rapport and Interactif racing together in sixth. They Call Me Giant, who hopped at the start, was back in last, eight lengths from the lead.

The first quarter mile was run in a very slow :25 2/5, which makes Grand Rapport's late run even more impressive. Stormy Lord and Workin for Hops had the race all to their own, carving out fractions of :49 3/5 and 1:13 flat. Working for Hops made his bid for the lead and had a head advantage after a mile in 1:36 3/5. It looked like he was on his way to victory. Thunder Brew was tiring. Majestictroubadour was giving way rapidly. Grand Rapport was still three lengths off the lead. Workin for Hops was home free!

I thought.

Then Grand Rapport switched from third to ninth gear, blowing past Grand Rapport to win the mile and an eighth race in 1:48 3/5. He ran his final three eighths in about :35 seconds. Many people believe that Paddy O'Prado is America's best chance at winning the Breeders' Cup Turf. After this performance, it is entirely possible that Grand Rapport is out best chance.

Workin for Hops held second over Stormy Lord, with They Call Me Giant rallying late to complete the superfecta. Thunder Brew, Interactif, Lentenor, and Majestictroubadour followed. Amazingly, despite finishing seventh, Lentenor was only beaten five lengths for everything.

In the tenth race at Louisiana Downs, the Sunday Silence Stakes, the undefeated Aces N Kinds fell to defeat for the first time. However, he proved yesterday just how much courage he has.

Sent off as the odds on favorite, Aces N Kings broke beautifully and settled in behind the leaders Unitas and Unbridled Sheriff. The fractions were honest ones, :23 2/5 for the first quarter mile and :48 4/5 for the half. Aces N Kings began to inch closer, drawing to within three quarters of a length after three quarters of a mile in 1:13 4/5. However, trouble quickly arose, and Aces N Kings found himself in traffic as they approached the quarter pole. Shuffled back to sixth, he looked done for. At the eight pole he was three and a half lengths from the lead. But those final 220 yards proved what a champion Aces N Kings is, as he shifted to the outside and hit the highest gear he could find. Inch by inch he made back the ground he had lost, hitting the wire together with four other colts.

The slow motion replay told the tale. Aces N Kings was making up ground at an alarming rate, and had the lead just yards from the finish, but Dreamsrunwild, a 12-1 shot, managed to put his head down on the wire first. Aces N Kings suffered his first defeat in what was perhaps his greatest race. It was another nose back to Unbridled Sheriff, another neck back to Majestic Knight, and a head to El Grayling.

Aces N Kings is a juvenile to watch. Perhaps he doesn't have the brilliance of Uncle Mo, Boys at Tosconova, or J P's Gusto, but he has shown more determination than his flashier counterparts. Perhaps he isn't good enough to compete in the Triple Crown, but I'm sure that we will be able to enjoy the gutsy gelding for a long time.

At Monmouth Park, there was another interesting two year old race. Curlinello was the morning line favorite, and was bet down to 3-5 in the early betting, but the promising Astrology was sent off as the narrow favorite. Neither of them would win, however, as it was Sweet Ducky who came away with the victory.

The early pace was set by Brave Romeo, who rattled off fractions of :24 2/5 and :49 3/5 while being pressed by Sweet Ducky. Astrology, Curlinello, and Loving Dove were right behind them, with Private Rules and Tiz Blessed trailing the field. The latter stumbled at the start and was never really in with a chance after that.

Sweet Ducky took over the lead as they turned for home, getting six furlongs in 1:14 2/5. Bravo Romeo was giving way, and Astrology and Curlinello were making their bids for the lead. Astrology weakened inside the final eighth of a mile, but Curlinello charged strongly along the inside, making up two lengths in the final eighth to finish second, beaten a half-length. Astrology held third, followed by Tiz Blessed, Loving Dove, Bravo Romeo, and Private Rules.

In the Ontario Derby up in Canada, it was Stately Victor who pulled a mild upset to claim his first victory since taking the Blue Grass Stakes back April. Rated about three to four lengths off the pace set by Kara's Orientation, he made a bold run to take the lead in the stretch and drew off to win by just over three lengths. So Elite also made a strong bid to finish a clear second, with Queen's Plate Stakes runner-up Hotep finishing third. Big Red Mike, winner of the Queen's Plate Stakes, finished a disappointing sixth after pressing the pace, beaten nearly eighteen lengths.

In the tenth race at Presque Isle Downs, the two and a quarter mile start allowance race that I mentioned, Helicopter, sent off as the narrowest of favorites, was rated about twenty lengths from the front in the early going, split horses at the top of the stretch, and drove away to win by a length and a quarter in track record time. Cursesandblessings finished second, followed by C R's Deputy and Spiritwood. I do believe that Helicopter is a very special horse and is a contender for the Breeders' Cup Marathon.

In England at Ascot race course, there was surprising upset in the one mile group I Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Mafki, who had upset two time Breeders' Cup Mile winner Goldikova in the Prix Jacques le Marois, was the heavy favorite over Rip Van Winkle. However, Poet's Voice, coming off of an impressive win in the group II Celebration Mile, proved best in the end. Last of eight early on, he made a very bold run under Frankie Dettori to just get up in time, defeating Rip Van Winkle, who had won the race in 2009, by a nose. The latter tracked his pacemaker in the early going and took the lead in the stretch, and just held second over 40-1 shot Red Jazz. Beethoven finished fourth, three quarters of a length in front of Mafki, who showed very little. Hearts of Fire, Bushman, and pace setter Air Chief Marshal completed the order of finish.

In the other grade I race at Ascot, the Fillies' Mile, the undefeated two year old White Moonstone battled gamely under Frankie Dettori to score a neck victory over Together and Theysken's Theory. However, she will not be raced again this year, which eliminates the Breeders' Cup from consideration, but she should be a major player in the 2011 European classics.

The most impressive performance at Ascot, however, came from the undefeated juvenile Frankel, named for the late Bobby Frankel. Coming from last under Tom Queally, he blew past the entire field on the turn and drew off to win by ten lengths. He is currently the heavy favorite for the 2011 Two Thousand Guineas and Epsom Derby, but is unlikely for the Breeders' Cup.

Be sure to join me next weekend for Breeders' Cup Preview weekend, as Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Blame, Twirling Candy, Awesome Gem, Richard's Kid, Fame and Glory, Cape Blanco, Youmzain, Goldikova, and others all take on grade I races on Saturday and Sunday. It's the biggest weekend of the fall and will definitely help sort out the muddled Breeders' Cup picture. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- September 24th, 2010

[My apologies for the delay in posting this; it was supposed to be up earlier]

Despite the fact that there are no grade I races to be run this weekend, there's still plenty of exciting racing action. At Louisiana Downs, the Super Derby (gr. II) and the ungraded Sunday Silence Stakes are among the eight stakes races to be run there on Saturday. At Belmont Park, Sara Louise will make her 2010 debut in the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II), but will have to beat the exciting three year old filly Rapport if she is to earn a starting berth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. At Parx Racing, Rose Catherine takes on Dubai Majesty and Canadian Ballet in the $200,000 Turf Amazon Handicap, while First Dude challenges Exhi, Afleet Again, A Little Warm, and others in the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) as he looks to score his first stakes win. Finally, at Monmouth Park, one mustn't forget to watch the promising juvenile Curlinello as he takes on seven rivals in the $100,000 Garden State Stakes. Are you excited? I know I am. It was very, very hard to pick this week’s feature race, but I finally chose the Turf Amazon Handicap.

FEATURE RACE ---- TURF AMAZON HANDICAP

It is not a graded stakes. It only drew six runners. But this race will likely be one of the best of the week and I would be shocked if the winner doesn't end up in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. This is an amazingly solid field and is going to be quite the race to see.

#1: ROSE CATHERINE (3-1)
It just goes to show how talented this field is when a filly like Rose Catherine, who is undefeated in turf sprints, is the 3-1 morning line third choice. The three year old daughter of Speightstown is riding a three race win streak that includes two stakes races, the $70,000 Lena Spencer Stakes and the $93,000 Mongo Queen Stakes. She has shown versatility, go wire-to-wire several times and showing the ability to rate just off the pace other times. This adaptability could prove useful tomorrow, for there is quite a bit of speed in the race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, she will be ridden by Javier Castellano and will carry 115 pounds.

#2: WEST OCEAN (8-5)
The 8-5 morning line favorite has a lot of things going for her. The four year old daughter of Elusive Quality has finished first or second in nine of her ten races, and has never been beaten by more than five and a half lengths. She had rattled of three straight wins starting in March, but fell to defeat last time out in the Incredible Revenge Stakes, where she took the lead in between calls only to be nailed on the wire by Dubai Majesty. With the amount of speed in tomorrow's race, West Ocean should have plenty of pace to set up her late bid. She will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by John Velazquez. She is trained by Todd Pletcher.

#3: ASHTON GIRL (20-1)
Two starts back, Ashton Girl was in a $25,000 claiming race. Three starts back the five year old daughter of Elnadim was in a $7,500 claiming race. Now she is taking on some of the best turf sprinters in the country.

I'm not sure exactly what has happened to Ashton Girl over the last two years, but it isn't too hard to piece her story together. She was running very well in early 2009, competing in allowance races, earning Beyer Speed Figures in the 80's, and ran a very good third on March 28th. This would be her last race until January 2010, and she has been disappointing since her return. Is some injury responsible for her long layoff and disappointing runs this year? I don’t know for sure. But fortunately, she appears to be getting better again, and comes into the Turf Amazon off of a neck win in a five furlong turf allowance race. She also gets into tomorrow's race with only 111 pounds, and if she is ever going to run huge in a stakes race this should be the one. She will be ridden by J. Bisono and is trained by Randy Allen.

#4: LADY RIZZI (8-1)
Lady Rizzi is one of those fillies who seems to be just a step below the top, capable of winning her fair share of stakes races but never quite getting there against the top horses in her division. On the other hand, the seven year old daughter of Rizzi holds the track record for five and a half furlongs on the turf at Saratoga, so she is certainly capable of picking up the pieces should the big guns misfire.

She began 2010 in an allowance race against males, running a strong second to the very nice horse Formidable. She then tried the $52,000 The Very One Stakes, where she ran fourth behind Starfish Bay, beaten less than three lengths.

Then it was on to Colonial Downs, wheres he got up to win the $50,000 Buckland Stakes by a head. An attempt at beating the best of her division in the Incredible Revenge Stakes yielded a third place finish behind Dubai Majesty and West Ocean, beaten four lengths. She then threw in a subpar performance in the Lena Spencer Stakes, tiring to finish ninth behind Rose Catherine. Should she rebound tomorrow, she'll be right there in the stretch. She will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by C. Velasquez. She is trained by Linda Rice.

#5: DUBAI MAJESTY (2-1)
Dubai Majesty is the ultimate picture of versatility. She has a huge win on dirt. She has a second in a grade I on synthetics. She has defeated West Ocean in a turf sprint. Among the horses she has beaten are Informed Decision, Dr. Zic, West Ocean, Lady Rizzi, Secret Gypsy, Hot Dixie Chick, and others.

However, the five year old daughter of Essence of Dubai has a new challenge to overcome tomorrow. Just two weeks ago, she finished second to Informed Decision, beaten a head, in the grade III Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes. Can she come back after only two weeks rest and run her best race? Anything's possible, but it's something to think about. Tomorrow, she will carry top weight of 123 pounds and will be ridden by regular rider Miguel Mena. She is trained by Bret Calhoun.

#6: CANADIAN BALLET (5-1)
Canadian Ballet always runs the same style of race. You go to the lead (or maybe drop into second place) and see how far you can go. This style of running has yielded great performances (victories in the 2009 Lena Spencer and Turf Amazon) and the not so great performances. (a fifth place finish in the The Very One Stakes and a fourth place finish in the Giant's Causeway Stakes.)

How far will the five year old daughter of City Zip go today? Well, she could fade to fifth like she did in her last start, the Lena Spencer Stakes, or she could go all the way to the wire, like she did in the Jenny Wade Handicap two starts back. She has to carry 120 pounds tomorrow, but I'm going to guess that she keeps going today. She will be ridden by Stewart Elliott and is trained by Linda Rice.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Rose Catherine
2 West Ocean
3 Dubai Majesty
4 Canadian Ballet
5 Ladi Rizzi
6 Ashton Girl

I see a very close finish tomorrow, with Rose Catherine narrowly holding off her elders. West Ocean should be absolutely flying late, as will Dubai Majesty, but the latter's kick may not be as effective at this very short distance and she'll miss by about a length. Canadian Ballet will finish fourth, but not badly beaten, followed by Ladi Rizzi and Ashton Girl.

At at least that's how I think it will happen.

QUICK PICKS

GALLANT BLOOM HANDICAP (gr. II)

Sara Louise should be very tough to beat here, but she hasn't raced since last November and may need this race to get her back to top form. If this is the case, than Rapport and Qualia should be able to pick up the pieces. Rapport, one of the three sophomores in the race, comes off of a sharp win in the grade III Victory Ride Stakes, while Qualia has shown fine form throughout her career.

My quick picks are. . .

1 Rapport
2 Sara Louise
3 Qualia

SUPER DERBY (gr. II)

Hurricane Ike is the morning line favorite at 5-2, but has yet to succeed around two turns and this may be a bit of a stretch for him. I like Apart, who comes off of a nice win in the Super Derby Prelude, and Golden Moka, who was very impressive in winning the Prince of Wales Stakes up in Canada. However, my pick is Distorted Economy, third in the El Cajon Stakes to Haimish Hy and Lions Story last time out.

My quick picks are. . .

1 Distorted Economy
2 Golden Moka
3 Hurricane Ike

PENNSYLVANIA DERBY (gr. II)

Despite its $1,000,000 purse, the Pennsylvania Derby drew only seven horses. The morning line favorite is First Dude, who has finished second or third in five consecutive grade I races, including the Preakness and Belmont. He's probably the best horse in the race, but should he fail to fire tomorrow, there are plenty of horses who can step up to grab the victory.

Obviously, Exhi, winner of four straight earlier this spring, is a top contender. His win streak was broken last time out when he finished second to Concord Point in the grade II West Virginia Derby, but he was nearly nine lengths clear of the third place finisher and should run huge tomorrow. A Little Warm, winner of the Jim Dandy, should also be in the mix if he rebounds off of his poor performance in the Travers Stakes.

So here are my quick picks. . .

1 Exhi
2 First Dude
3 Morning Line
4 A Little Warm
5 Afleet Again
6 Friend or Foe
7 Severe Weather

Another notable race this Saturday is the tenth at Presque Isle Downs, a two and a quarter mile (NOT a typo!) starter allowance race. The second choice, Helicopter, is one of my favorite horses. The race may be a bit long for him, but he has always been a nice horse and may end up in the Breeders' Cup Marathon later this year.

In Canada, Stately Victor takes on Queen's Plate Stakes top two finishers Big Red Mike and Hotep in the Ontario Derby, a nine furlong race run on the main track. In the Sunday Silence Stakes on the undercard of the Super Derby, the undefeated two year old colt Aces N Kings goes for his sixth victory. Bim Bam and Fly By Phil meet in the Needles Stakes at Calder Race Course, and at Delaware Park, Barbaro's full brother Lentenor takes on Interactif, Grand Rapport, and Workin for Hops in the (gr. III) Kent Stakes. There's all kinds of racing action this weekend, and more than a few Breeders' Cup runners should emerge from this Saturday's races. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS September 23rd, 2010

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Quality Road
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 Cape Blanco

TURF

1 Fame and Glory
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Champ Pegasus
4 Debussy
5 Arctic Cosmos

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Mafki
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Gio Ponti
5 Court Vision

SPRINT

1 Discreetly Mine
2 Big Drama
3 Kinsale King
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Atta Boy Roy

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Rachel Alexandra
3 Evening Jewel
4 Havre de Grace
5 Unrivaled Belle

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Red Desire
3 Stacelita
4 Keertana
5 Check the Label

DIRT MILE

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Musket Man
3 Vineyard Haven
4 Espoir City
5 Gayego

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Rightly So
4 Secret Gypsy
5 Informed Decision

TURF SPRINT

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 California Flag
3 Rose Catherine
4 Bridgetown
5 West Ocean

MARATHON

1 Cloudy's Knight
2 Rezif
3 Eldaafer
4 A. U. Miner
5 Unusual Suspect

JUVENILE

1 Boys at Tosconova
2 Uncle Mo
3 J P's Gusto
4 Pathfork
5 Stay Thirsty

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Tell a Kelly
2 Wonderlandbynight
3 Awesome Feather
4 R Heat Lightning
5 Wickedly Perfect

JUVENILE TURF

1 Soldat
2 Bandbox
3 Major Gain
4 Bear's Future
5 Pluck

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 Theysken's Theory
2 New Normal
3 More Than Real
4 Winter Memories
5 A Brilliant Idea

COURT VISION WINS THE WOODBINE MILE!

With a tremendous late run under Robby Albarado, Court Vision surged from the back of the pack to catch The Usual Q. T. in the final strides to win the $1,000,000 Woodbine Mile by a neck.

The Usual Q. T., taken back to about mid-pack by Victor Espinoza, looked home free when he took the lead in the stretch but was unable to hold off the winner.

52-1 Woodbourne finished third, followed by Crowded House and Zifzaf.

-Keelerman

WOODBINE MILE ANALYSIS

Thirteen horses. Thirteen jockeys. Twelve trainers. One mile. One million dollars.

Those are the conditions of the grade I, $1,000,000 Woodbine Mile, which should hold quite a bit of weight when the Breeders' Cup Mile rolls around. The winner of this race will likely be one of the favorites in Louisville, should the winner choose to take the route to the Breeders' Cup.

It is currently 28 minutes to post, and Famous Name is currently the favorite at 9-5, down from his 6-1 morning line odds. The five year old son of Dansili will break from gate twelve and is making his United States debut, having raced in Ireland and France his entire career. Although he finished last of six in his last start, the grade I Irish Champion Stakes, he was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths for second by Rip Van Winkle. Prior to that, he won three consectutive races, two of them under 138 pounds.

The second choice at 7-2 is the four year old The Usual Q. T. The dual grade I winning son of Unusual Heat won the Eddie Read Stakes two starts back but finished a disappointing fifth on the Polytrack in the grade I Pacific Classic after leading at the eighth pole. However, he returns to the surface on which he has done his best running and should appreciate the cut back in distance. On the other hand, he has to break from gate eleven.

Currently the third choice at 6-1 is Court Vision. The five year old son of Gulch showed promise at two when he swept to victory in both the grade III Iroquois Stakes and the grade II Remsen, but failed to imptessive along the Triple Crown Trail and ran thirteenth in the Kentucky Derby, beaten slightly over twenty-four lengths by Big Brown.

Then he was tried on turf and turned into a different horse.

Wins in the Jamaica Handicap and Hollywood Derby were followed by wins in the Shadwell Turf Mile and Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Throw in some narrowly beaten seconds and a fourth in the Breeders' Cup Mile and you have yourself a top grade I runner who is capable of being competitive at many distances.

On the other hand, he has not raced since early June and this one mile distance may be just a bit too short for him. But he should make his presence felt.

One longshot that I really like is Zifzaf, who is currently 17-1. The son of Breeders' Cup Mile winner War Chant won three straight before finishing a narrowly beaten third behind Get Stormy in the grade II Fourstardave Handicap. He should be able to get a perfect trip from gate three and will have every chance to tackle the leaders as they turn for home.

Victor's Cry should be right in the mix as well if he runs back to his Shoemaker Mile form. Last time out, he finished second to The Usual Q. T. in the Eddie Read and should get plenty of pace to run.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Victor's Cry
2 The Usual Q. T.
3 Famous Name
4 Zifzaf
5 Court Vision

-Keelerman

CHECK THE LABEL WINS THE GARDEN CITY!!!

Check the Label came flying from last to win the grade I Garden City Stakes by a length.

Ridden by Ramon Dominguez, Check the Label was taken about twelve lengths off the lead in the early going before making a huge move as they approached the far turn. Although they lacked running room and Ramon Dominguez had to swing his filly to the far outside, she charged strongly in the homestretch to take the lead from longshot Gitchee Goomie and then held off Snow Top Mountain for the win.

Persuading finished fourth.

-Keelerman

GARDEN CITY STAKES ANALYSIS

It is currently 19 minutes to post for the grade I, nine furlong on the turf Garden City Stakes. Here are the current odds. . .

1 Check the Label (Even)
2 Gitchee Goomie (14-1)
3 Persuading (16-1)
4 Queen of the Creek (3-1)
5 No Explaining (Scratched)
6 Negligee (9-2)
7 Snow Top Mountain (5-1)
8 Triple Cream (13-1)

Check the Label is fully expected to win her fourth staight graded stakes victory. However, she has not raced since July, when she won the grade III Virginia Oaks. Prior to that, she had swept to victory in the grade II Sands Point Stakes and grade III Appalachian Stakes.

Queen of the Creek is the second choice, and comes off of an impressive win in the one mile Riskaverse Stakes. However, that race was just sixteen days ago, and she may be coming back a bit quick.

Snow Top Mountain is another interesting filly. She has yet to finish first in a race since May, but has run second four times since then, including in the Arlington Park Oaks, where she was declared the winner upon the disqualification of first place finisher Upperline.

It's post time! Here are my picks. . .

1 Check the Label
2 Queen of the Creek
3 Gitchcee Goomie

-Keelerman

NEW NORMAL WINS THE NATALMA!!

New Normal took the lead from the start and held off all challengers under Javier Castellano to win the grade III Natalma Stakes by just over a length.

4-5 favorite More Than Real came from far back on the outside to finish second, but was unable to catch the winner.

Street Chimes finished third, just in front of Dos Lunas.

-Keelerman

NATALMA STAKES ANALYSIS

As I sit writing this, it is ten minutes to post for the grade III, one mile on the turf Natalma Stakes.

The $200,000 event had drawn a field of nine, led by the undefeated 7-5 favorite Roxy Gap, but she was scratched earlier today with a fever, leaving the field with eight horses.

The current favorite, at 3-5, is the number seven filly More Than Real. She has only raced once, breaking her maiden at Saratoga by a length and a quarter.

Another interesting filly is the number five, New Normal. Currently 7-1, she broke her maiden by nearly three lengths last time out over this course and should run even better today.

Then there is Sheba's Secret. 9-2 right now, she has yet to win a race but finished second to Roxy Gap last time out, although she was beaten nearly five lenghths.

Street Chimes (currently 4-1) and Dos Lunas (6-1) are also well bet. Street Chimes won her only start by just under a length and Dos Lunas comes off of a second place finish in a stakes race.

It's post time! My picks are. . .

1 New Normal
2 More Than Real
3 Sheba's Secret

-Keelerman

WHY THE FUTURITY?

There is a lot of great racing action going on this coming weekend. The Summer Stakes (gr. III) and Natalma Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine on Saturday. The Woodbine Mile (gr. I) and Northern Dancer Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I) at Woodbine on Sunday. Four state-restricted stakes races at Monmouth.

Then why is it that the most notable race of the weekend is the one that's not being run?

September 18th, 2010 will be remembered by some as the day that the Futurity Stakes would have been run if it had not been canceled due to lack of funds.

We all know the shape that New York racing is in—the lack of funds, the delayed Aqueduct casino, small fields in stakes races, etc., etc. It came as no surprise that several of the Belmont’s autumn stakes races were canceled.

But why the Futurity?

The Futurity Stakes is one of the oldest races run in the United States. It has been run every year since its inaugural running in 1888 with the exception of 2001. For years, it was the most important race in the United States, even more important than the Kentucky Derby. For over sixty years its purse was larger than that of the Belmont Stakes.

The list of winners is unbelievably impressive—Man o' War, Secretariat, Citation, Affirmed, Bold Ruler, Nashua, Native Dancer, Tom Fool, Colin, Riva Ridge, Domino, Bimelech, Top Flight, Jamestown, Gulch, Forty Niner, Holy Bull, Lemon Drop Kid, Swale, Intentionally, Mother Goose, Artful, and Maskette are among the many famous horses who have etched their names into history.

However, the race has been in a decline in recent years. It is currently a grade II race, having lost its grade I status a few years ago, and the field it has been drawing has been getting less and less impressive. Also, its position on the calendar has left it more or less useless as a Breeders' Cup Juvenile prep. Scheduled seven weeks before the Breeders' Cup, the winner of the Futurity has to either come into the championship race off of a seven week layoff or run in the Champagne Stakes three weeks after the Futurity and then head to the Breeders' Cup with a four week break.

It is because of this that many of the top two year olds are running in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) and then awaiting the Champagne five weeks later. The timing is better, they run for more money, and both races are grade I. Who would pass up on that?

Arguably the three greatest race horses in history have won the race. Many influential sires have come out of this race. Even though the race has been struggling, it is still turning out good horses. Last year's winner, D' Funnybone, is one of the top three year old sprinters in the country. 2007 winner Tale of Ekati returned at three to win the Wood Memorial (gr. I) and Cigar Mile (gr. I) as well as to run fourth in the Kentucky Derby. 2003 winner Cuvee failed to impress at three, but has gotten off to a good start as a sire, with six stakes winners to his credit including grade I winner Noble's Promise, who won the Breeders' Futurity and finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

What about Whywhywhy? The winner of the 2002 Futurity is the sire of five stakes winners, including Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Nownownow.

If that's not good enough, City Zip, who finished first in 2000 but was disqualified, scored in four stakes races the following year and placed in five others, including the King's Bishop (gr. I) and Fountain of Youth (gr. I). He has been a great success at stud, siring twenty stakes winners including the undefeated grade I winner Bustin Stones.

I'm having trouble seeing why a race of the caliber was canceled, when there were several other options for saving money that could have saved the race. For example, the purse of the Jockey Club Gold Cup could have been cut to a "meager" $500,000. That $250,000 purse cut could have been used as the purse for the Futurity.

Or perhaps some other stakes races could have been canceled. I have a feeling that fewer people would miss the Ashley T. Cole Stakes, with its $100,000 purse, or the $125,000 Hudson Stakes. Canceling those races would help pay to keep the Futurity alive.

Perhaps the race will be returned next year. If so, it would keep its grade II status and would have a chance at surviving. If not, it will join races like the Garden State Stakes, Pimlico Futurity, Laurel Futurity, Lawrence Realization Handicap, and Marlboro Cup Invitational Handicap, forever famous yet rarely remembered.

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS September 17th, 2010

(Rankings for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf will begin in early September.)

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Quality Road
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 Cape Blanco

TURF

1 Fame and Glory
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Champ Pegasus
4 Debussy
5 Arctic Cosmos

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Mafki
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Gio Ponti
5 Proviso

SPRINT

1 Discreetly Mine
2 Big Drama
3 Kinsale King
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Atta Boy Roy

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Rachel Alexandra
3 Evening Jewel
4 Havre de Grace
5 Unrivaled Belle

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Red Desire
3 Stacelita
4 Keertana
5 Sarafina

DIRT MILE

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Musket Man
3 Vineyard Haven
4 Concord Point
5 Espoir City

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Rightly So
4 Secret Gypsy
5 Informed Decision

TURF SPRINT

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 California Flag
3 Rose Catherine
4 Bridgetown
5 Fleeting Spirit

MARATHON

1 Cloudy's Knight
2 Rezif
3 Eldaafer
4 A. U. Miner
5 Unusual Suspect

JUVENILE

1 Boys at Tosconova
2 Uncle Mo
3 J P's Gusto
4 Stay Thirsty
5 Madman Diaries

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Tell a Kelly
2 Awesome Feather
3 R Heat Lightning
4 Wickedly Perfect
5 Roxy Gap

REZIF WINS THE KENTUCKY CUP TURF!

With a thrilling late run under jockey Greta Kuntzweiler, Rezif took revenge against Cloudy's Knight, winning the $150,000 Kentucky Cup Turf by daylight.

Rezif had finished second in this race last year, and scored a 18-1 upset this time around.

4-5 favorite Cloudy's Knight ran very well in his first start since his injury, taking the lead as they turned for home and holding on well to finish second. Free Fighter was third, followed by Celtic New Year.

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY CUP UPDATE 2

Four minutes to post now. Here are the odds. . .

CLOUDY'S KNIGHT: 6-5
FREE FIGHTER: 4-1
GUADALCANAL: 10-1
REZIF: 15-1
COOLCULLEN TIMES: 3-1
CELTIC NEW YEAR: 10-1
CLASS BOPPER: 25-1
IMPONENTE PURSE: 19-1
NEGRA DA GAITA: 34-1

Cloudy's Knight is the very heavy favorite. Can he repeat off of an eight month layoff? What about Rezif? Will he finish second again or will he win this time around?

Free Fighter and Coolcullen Times could use a win here. They are both trying to prove themselves Breeders' Cup worthy and a victory could set them up nicely for either the Breeders' Cup Turf or the Marathon. Cloudy's Knight used this race last year as one of his preps for Breeders' Cup Marathon, where he ran second after taking the lead in the stretch.

It's post time now! Cloudy's Knight is even money!

I'll be back with the results in a minute!

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY CUP TURF UPDATE 1

It is currently 16 minutes to post for the grade III Kentucky Cup Turf, where ten year old gelding Cloudy's Knight will try and begin a 2010 campaign that will hopefully end with a victory in the Breeders' Cup Marathon later this year.

He has not raced since December 2009. He was in training and ready to run in April, but a suspensory injury suffered during a workout nearly brought the grade I winner's career to a close.

Here are the current odds. . .

CLOUDY'S KNIGHT: 7-5
FREE FIGHTER: 9-2
GUADALCANAL: 10-1
REZIF: 13-1
COOLCULLEN TIMES: 5-2
CELTIC NEW YEAR: 9-2
CLASS BOPPER: 22-1
IMPONENTE PURSE: 27-1
NEGRA DA GAITA: 35-1

I'll be back with more updates shortly!

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- September 10th

Saratoga and Del Mar have completed their summer meets. The Woodward, Forego, Hopeful, Spinaway, Del Mar Futurity, and Darley Debutante are all in the history books. Several horses have taken another step closer to the Breeders' Cup, and a few others have shown that they may be vulnerable in November.

As there aren’t any grade I races this weekend, this week’s feature race will be the grade III Kentucky Cup Turf Stakes from Kentucky Downs. It's going to be a truly memorable race, for the defending winner and morning line favorite, Cloudy's Knight, is making his first start since suffering a serious injury several months ago that nearly caused him to be retired. Add that to the fact that he is at least twice as old as all of his competitors and you find a race that should not be missed for anything.

FEATURE RACE: KENTUCKY CUP TURF (gr. III)
12 furlongs on the turf

#1: CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (2-1)
The morning line favorite, Cloudy's Knight is ten years old. That's not a typo. He is ten years old. He broke his maiden in 2003, when Funny Cide was the talk of the racing world. He ran in his first stakes race in 2004, one month after Birdstone upset Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes. He won his first stakes race on September 18th 2004, one week after Ghostzapper outdueled Saint Liam in the Woodward Stakes.

On and off success followed, and it wasn't until 2007 that the gelding won his first graded stakes, sweeping past pace-setting Devilment to win the grade III Fair Grounds Breeders' Cup Handicap. The victory came just one week after Curlin made his debut.

His first and only grade I win came later that year, when he held off favored Ask to win the Canadian International by a nose at odds of 18-1. Six days later Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic.

In 2008, he showed very poor form, failing to hit the board in four starts. Given slightly more than a year's rest, he returned on September 19th, 2009 to win the grade III Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes by two and a half lengths. His form has been incredible since.

Wins in the grade III Sycamore Stakes, the grade II W. L. McKnight Handicap, and Valedictory Stakes followed, as well as a close second in the Breeders' Cup Marathon. In the W. L. McKight, the horses he disposed of included Spice Route, Winchester, and Presious Passion.

Following a routine five furlong workout on April 19th, 2010, a tendon injury was discovered that nearly brought his long career to a close. But the ten year old gelding is back yet again. He has recorded two workouts since returning to training, the first coming on September 2nd, a six furlong breeze in 1:19 2/5, the second being a five furlong breeze on the 8th in 1:01 1/5. He may not be ready for this race, but I'm sure he'll give it everything he has. He will carry top weight of 122 pounds and will be ridden by Rosemary Homeister Jr.

#2: FREE FIGHTER (3-1)

If Cloudy's Knight proves the least bit rusty tomorrow, it will likely be the second choice Free Fighter who takes advantage of the situation. The five year old gelding won the mile and a half Louisville Handicap (gr. III) earlier this year. However, his three efforts since then have not been very inspiring, although he did have the lead at the eighth pole of the thirteen furlong Stars and Stripes Turf Stakes (gr. III) last time out. He seems to do his best running at this mile and a half distance and should be right there at the finish. He will be ridden by E. Perez and will carry 118 pounds. He is trained by Chris Block.

#3: GUADALCANAL (8-1)

This five year old gelding made the headlines two years ago ---- when he was entered in the Belmont Stakes despite having never won a race. He ran seventh that day, beaten about twenty-five lengths.

Since then, he has won three races, a maiden special weight and two allowance races. His last win came on June 25th, 2009. His form this year has not been very good. From four starts, he has managed a sixth in an allowance race and a sixth, a fourth, and a second in allowance optional claiming events. Although this distance and surface appears to be his best, he does not seem to be good enough to win here.

He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by B. Blanc. He is trained by F. Seitz.

#4: REZIF (20-1)

Although on the surface Rezif appears to be nowhere near good enough to win here, it is fairly possible that Rezif is capable of making his presence felt. He came from last in this race last year to finish second at odds of 33-1 and has been known to muster powerful late charges in the past. The circumstances appear ideal for a sharp performance tomorrow, and I would not be surprised to see him flying late. He will be ridden by G. Kuntzweiler and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by Matthew Jacobson.

#5: COOLCULLEN TIMES (4-1)

The third choice on the morning line, Coolcullen Times has made four starts since coming to the United States. In his American debut, he ran a narrowly beaten fifth in an allowance race. This was followed by a ninth place finish, beaten five lengths, in the grade II Dixie Handicap. He then finished second in an allowance race and third in the John's Call Stakes, beaten a length after leading at the eighth pole. I believe that this gelding will get better with distance and should be right there in the stretch tomorrow. He will be ridden by Alex Solis and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by H. G. Motion.

#6: CELTIC NEW YEAR (20-1)

The only three year old in the field, Celtic New Year comes off of a win in a handicap race on the turf at Ellis Park. However, he seems to have some distance limitations and in his one appearance in a stakes race, the grade III Transylvania Stakes, he ran last of seven. He will be ridden by D. Mernagh and is trained by C. Peery. He will carry 112 pounds.

#7: CLASS BOPPER (30-1)

Class Bopper has had a very unusual career. After failing to win any kind of flat race, he was tried in a two and a quarter mile hurdle race, which he won by a length and a quarter. He came back a week later in the Gladstone Hurdle Stakes, he led to the three eighths pole before he ducked in and left the course, failing to finish the race.

Returned to flat races, he broke his maiden going one mile on the turf at Colonial Downs before finishing second in a similar allowance race. He then won an allowance race and finished second in an allowance optional claiming race before being returned to the hurdles in the Supreme Hurdle Stakes, which he won.

He was then given a length break, returning in a flat allowance race earlier this year, where he ran a well beaten ninth. A fourth in an optional claiming event was followed by a fifth in a similar event. In his final start prior to tomorrow's race, he won the two and a quarter mile grade III David L. (Zeke) Ferguson Memorial Hurdle Stakes by ten lengths. Although his future appears to be in hurdle races, it's possible that he has gotten better with age and might be able to handle this mile and a half flat race. He will be ridden by R. Boucher and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by L. Boucher.

#8: IMPONENTE PURSE (8-1)

The lightly raced Imponente Purse has only made eight starts, five of them coming in Brazil. Since coming to the United States, he has run three races, beginning with a runner up performance in a ten furlong turf allowance race. He then finished tenth in the grade III Arlington Handicap, beaten about twelve lengths, and third in a mile and a half allowance optional claiming race. If he is to someday win a graded stakes race, this looks like the perfect spot. He will be ridden by T. Pompell and is trained by E. Caramori.

#9: NEGRO DA GAITA (30-1)

Negro Da Gaita, the co-longest shot in the race, has only made one race in the United States, finishing seventh in an allowance optional claiming event. He has only won two races, both of them coming in his native Brazil. He does not seem likely to hit the board here, but you never know. He will be ridden by S. Gonzalez. and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by E. Caramori.

So who do I like? It's hard to say who is going to win this race. The favorite hasn't raced in months and is coming back from an injury and every other runner has some questions to answer.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Rezif
2 Cloudy's Knight
3 Coolcullen Times
4 Free Fighter
5 Guadalcanal
6 Imponente Purse
7 Class Bopper
8 Celtic New Year
9 Negro Da Gaita

Although I do think that Cloudy's Knight is going to eventually make a successful comeback, I don't think that he will be able to win his first start back. He has only two workouts to get him ready and the distance of this race may actually be just a little bit too short for him.

I like Rezif. I honestly think that he is one of the horses to beat and he should not be 20-1. He has been mustering some very good late runs and did finish second in this race last year.

OTHER PICKS

BOWLING GREEN HANDICAP (gr. II)

With Grand Coutrier scratching to run in the Northern Dancer Stakes at Woodbine, the complexion of the race has changed. After all, Grand Coutrier was the winner of this race last year.

Obviously the multiple grade I winner Winchester is the one to beat, seeing that he has already beaten 2009 dual Eclipse champion Gio Ponti, but I really like Interpatation. Although he has only won six races. . . from fifty-five starts. . . I thought he ran extremely well in the Sword Dancer last time out, getting trapped behind horses in the stretch and being bumped several times. He still managed to run fourth, beaten less than four lengths, and I believe he is ready for a top effort tomorrow.

So here are my picks. . .


1 Winchester
2 Interpatation
3 Al Khali
4 Jeune-Turc
5 Dry Martini
6 Southwest
7 Strike a Deal
8 Simmard
9 Gabriel's Hill
10 Followmyfootsteps

PRESQUE ISLE DOWNS MASTERS STAKES (gr. III)

It's hard not to like Informed Decision, who won this race last year on her way to earning the Eclipse award for champion female sprinter. However, she does not seem to be the same filly that she was last year.

Two weeks ago, in the Ballerina Stakes, she ran a dismal sixth of eight. Her two other grade I attempts this year have yielded third place finishes. Her record in 2009 was seven starts, six wins, one third. Her record this year is five starts, two wins, two thirds and a sixth.

Still, she is the Eclipse champion, and the Ballerina was on dirt, a surface she doesn't like as much as synthetics. If Informed Decision is going to try and piece her 2010 campaign back together, this is the spot to do it. However, coming back in two weeks may be just a little bit quick.

If anyone is going to upset Informed Decision it will likely be Dubai Majesty. She has been in fine form this year, beginning with a runner up effort, beaten a nose, in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint Stakes. She then finished second again, this time by a head, in the Pan Zareta Stakes. She was second yet again in the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes, although she did finish ahead of Informed Decision, but then ran last in the grade I Humana Distaff on a sloppy track.

Her next start came in the grade III Winning Colors Stakes, a race she won by four and a half impressive lengths, scorching the six furlong distance in 1:08 flat.

Then came the grade I Princess Rooney Handicap at Calder Race Course. Although she gave it everything she had, Dubai Majesty ran third behind Jessica is Back and Warbling. She then tried the turf in the Incredible Revenge Stakes and just got up to defeat West Ocean by a neck. This brings her to tomorrow's race. She does have to break from the rail, which isn't great, but I think that she can overcome everything to win here.

Another notable filly is Dr. Zic, who beat both Informed Decision and Dubai Majesty in the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes back in April. If she runs back to that form she will be dangerous, however, two subsequent starts have yielded a second in the grade III Hendrie Stakes and a dismal ninth in the Princess Rooney.

Then there is Red Hot Buddha, who had to check sharply when a hole closed in her last race, resulting in a fifth place finish. Prior to that, she won an allowance race at this track by eight lengths. If everything goes her way, she should be right there at the finish.

So here are my top five picks. . .

1 Dubai Majesty
2 Red Hot Buddha
3 Informed Decision
4 Dr. Zic
5 Mother Russia

It's an influential bunch of races out there, and at least a few of the horses running this weekend will be seen at the Breeders' Cup. Will they win? We'll know in November.

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS September 10th, 2010

(Rankings for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf will begin in early September.)

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Quality Road
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 Cape Blanco

TURF

1 Fame and Glory
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Gio Ponti
4 Debussy
5 Champ Pegasus

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Sidney's Candy
3 Proviso
4 Twirling Candy
5 Mafki

SPRINT

1 Discreetly Mine
2 Big Drama
3 Kinsale King
4 Crown of Thorns
5 Atta Boy Roy

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Rachel Alexandra
3 Evening Jewel
4 Havre de Grace
5 Persistently

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Stacelita
3 Keertana
4 Forever Together
5 Harmonious

DIRT MILE

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Musket Man
3 Vineyard Haven
4 Concord Point
5 A Little Warm

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Rightly So
4 Sweet August Moon
5 Jessica is Back

TURF SPRINT

1 Chamberlain Bridge
2 California Flag
3 Rose Catherine
4 Bridgetown
5 Silver Timber

MARATHON

1 Cloudy's Knight
2 A. U. Miner
3 Unusual Suspect
4 Eldaafer
5 Bourbon Bay

JUVENILE

1 Boys at Tosconova
2 Uncle Mo
3 J P's Gusto
5 Stay Thirsty
4 Madman Diaries

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Tell a Kelly
2 Position Limit
3 Awesome Feather
4 Wickedly Perfect
5 R Heat Lightning

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- SEPTEMBER 3rd

We're coming down to the finish now --- there are only three days of racing left at Saratoga this year. Fortunately, they are three great days. The Woodward, the Hopeful, the Forego, and the Spinaway are just a few of the great races left to be run. Therefore, Saratoga will be the site of this week's feature race.

FEATURE RACE: THE WOODWARD

Can Quality Road make amends? That is the main question surrounding this race. He looked nearly unstoppable earlier this year, flying to victory in the Hal's Hope, Donn, and Met Mile. In the Donn, he won by over twelve lengths in track record time.

However, his streak came to an end in last month's Whitney Handicap. Despite setting easy fractions, he was unable to quicken as they turned for home and was nailed by Blame on the wire. Many people felt that Quality Road should have gone faster early to try and run his opponents off their feet, and it's certainly possible that jockey John Velazquez will try that strategy this time.

The second leg of the "Handicap Triple Crown" is about to commence! Let's take a look at who's running. . .

#1: CONVOCATION (6-1)
The second choice on the morning line, Convocation is having a great year. He began the year by winning a one mile allowance race by five lengths before finishing second to Le Grand Cru in the grade III Westchester Stakes. He then threw in a less than stellar fourth behind Quality Road in the Met Mile, beaten seven lengths, but rebounded nicely to finish a fast closing second to Haynesfield in the Suburban Handicap. He prepped for this race in a nine furlong allowance optional claiming event at this track, which he won by a neck in the sharp time of 1:48.78. If Quality Road should falter again, Convocation is more than capable of giving trainer Jimmy Jerkens and jockey Javier Castellano another grade I win here at Saratoga. The pair teamed up last Saturday to win the Travers with Afleet Express. Tomorrow, Convocation will carry 126 pounds, the same as everyone else.

#2: MINE THAT BIRD (10-1)
Poor Mine That Bird has had a lot of trouble since winning last year's Kentucky Derby. Troubled trips and tracks he dislikes have left him winless since the Derby, but things may be different today. For one thing, he will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh tomorrow, rather than Calvin Borel. For another thing, he will wear blinkers for the first time. It's hard to say if these changes will be enough to improve his current form, however. In the gelding's last start, he ran fifth behind Blame and Quality Road in the Whitney, beaten twelve and a half lengths. Prior to that, he ran eighth in the Firecracker Handicap at one mile on turf, a surface he apparently dislikes. However, this will be his third start off of his long layoff and he should improve again tomorrow. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

#3: QUALITY ROAD (1-4)
The overwhelming favorite on the morning line, Quality Road, as I mentioned above, has a reputation to repair. Many people believe that the son of Elusive Quality has distance limitations after seeing him tire in the final strides of the Whitney, and they are probably correct. Although he may very well be unable to go a mile and a quarter, the Woodward is only a mile and an eighth, a distance that he has succeeded at before. Also, he won't have to spot the field weight tomorrow, for the Woodward is run under weight-for-age conditions. He will be ridden by regular rider John Velazquezs and is trained by Todd Pletcher.

#4: ARCODORO (30-1)
The longest shot in the field, Arcodoro was a maiden up until a few months ago. The four year old colt began his career last February, losing four consecutive maiden special weight races. Based on his close second place finish in the last of those four, he was stepped into stakes company in the grade III Cinema Handicap. He led by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but tired late to finish second, beaten a length. Returned to a maiden race, he finished a narrowly beaten fourth. Sent off at 21-1 in his next start, the grade II La Jolla Handicap, he finished a badly beaten ninth. He was then entered in another maiden special weight race, where he finished second, beaten less than two lengths. He was then given a lengthy layoff, returning on May 28th, 2010 in yet another maiden special weight. Finally breaking through with a win, he was stepped up to an allowance optional claiming event, where he finished third, beaten less than three lengths. He prepped for the Woodward with a win in an allowance race at this track. He will be ridden in tomorrow’s race by David Cohen and is trained by Eric Guillot.

#5: INDIAN DANCE (20-1)
Despite the fact that his morning line odds are 20-1, Indian Dance's credentials really aren't that bad. He has won four of his nine starts and is a stakes winner, having won the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes back in March. Since then, he has finished fourth in the Charles Town Classic, fifth in the Elkwood Stakes on turf, and fourth in the Majestic Light Stakes. His last workout was a sharp :59 1/5, and he may be ready to run his best race. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and is trained by Lawrence Murray.

#6: TRANQUIL MANNER (15-1)
Tranquil Manner is a bit of a mystery here. His only appearance in a stakes race yielded a fifth place finish in the grade II Brooklyn Handicap, beaten about eight lengths. However, he ran the best race of his career in his last start, an allowance optional claiming race, which he won by a length despite closing from last into slow fractions. If this pace is quick he could certainly rally for a piece of the money. He will be ridden by Alan Garcia and is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.

#7: MYTHICAL POWER (12-1)
As good as Mythical Power has been in the past, he seems to be in a bit of a slump right now. He has won but one race this year, taking the grade III Texas Mile Stakes by a neck. However, he finished last in his next start, the grade III Lone Star Park Handicap, beaten twenty-four lengths by victorious Redding Colliery. He then finished fourth in the Cornhusker Handicap and fifth in the San Diego Handicap. His best races have come at Lone Star Park, and doesn't seem to be good enough here. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and is trained by Bob Baffert.
So who are my picks? It's obvious a solid field of runners and it is hard to say who will finish second and third. But I cannot see Quality Road losing again tomorrow, as he looks just too tough here.

Here are my full selections. . .

1 Quality Road
2 Convocation
3 Tranquil Manner
4 Mine That Bird
5 Indian Dance
6 Mythical Power
7 Arcodoro

I see a quick pace set by Quality Road and Arcodoro setting up the late runs of Convocation, Tranquil Manner, and Mine That Bird. But I don't think that any of them will catch Quality Road.

OTHER PICKS

FOREGO STAKES (gr. I)

It's very hard to see past Vineyard Haven, who loves seven furlongs and Saratoga, but there are plenty of horses here who could win if he falters.

One horse that I really like is Here Comes Ben. 10-1 on the morning line, he has won three straight and just seems to be getting better and better. Seven furlongs seems to be his best distance and there should be enough pace here to set up his run.

Bribon is another interesting runner. Although he seldom runs at seven furlongs (he has run the distance only once since coming to the United States) it could very well be his best distance. His biggest win came in the Metropolitan Handicap at one mile, but arguably his second best win was in the grade II True North Handicap at six furlongs.

Big Drama should be one of the favorites based on his spectacular form as of late, but seven furlongs may be just a bit too far for him.

Warrior's Reward is the other horse I really like, and he seems to be a seven furlong specialist. He won the grade I Carter Handicap earlier this year, and although he ran poorly in his last start, the Met Mile, he should rebound nicely here if the pace is quick enough to set up his late run.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Vineyard Haven
3 Warrior's Reward
4 Bribon
5 Big Drama
6 Girolamo
7 Checklist
8 You and I Forever
9 Starforaday
10 Omniscient
11 Charitable Man

SPINAWAY STAKES (gr. I)

It's Todd Pletcher's four against everyone else's four in the Spinaway Stakes. On raw numbers alone, Todd Pletcher has a 50% chance of winning the race, and when you take into account the fact that his four are the four favorites you have to give him at least a 90% chance of winning.

The morning line favorite is Valiant Passion, who broke her maiden impressively first time out last earlier this month, winning a five and a half furlong maiden special weight by over nine lengths. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, she should definitely be in contention as they turn for home.

However, despite the huge force that Todd Pletcher has, it's very possible that the winner will be Alienation. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has raced twice, winning a maiden special weight by a nose and finishing second to Position Limit in the grade II Adirondack Stakes. If Valiant Passion runs greenly on Sunday, Alienation pull off a mild upset.

If the track should turn up sloppy, Le Mi Geaux should not be forgotten. Although she is the second longest shot in the field, she has won two of her three races (finishing third in the other) and was very impressive in the grade III Schuylerville, which she won by a length and a half over Stopspendingmaria.

Another filly I really like is Abide. The Steve Asmussen-trained filly won her only start by 3 1/2 lengths in an impressive time. She looks ready to run huge on Sunday.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Abide
2 Alienation
3 Valiant Passion
4 Stopspendingmaria
5 Le Mi Geaux
6 R Heat Lightning
7 Sky Hosoya
8 Coax Liberty

DARLEY DEBUTANTE STAKES (gr. I)

1 Wickedly Perfect
2 Avid
3 A Z Warrior
4 Tell a Kelly
5 Sugarinthemorning
6 Izshelegal
7 She'll Heir
8 Riboletta
9 Gone Rebel
10 Righteous Renee

I'll be back with more picks and analysis later. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS September 1st, 2010

(Rankings for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf & Juvenile Fillies Turf will begin in early September.)

CLASSIC

1 Zenyatta
2 Blame
3 Quality Road
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 Twice Over

TURF

1 Fame and Glory
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Debussy
4 Gio Ponti
5 Champ Pegasus

MILE

1 Goldikova
2 Sidney's Candy
3 Paco Boy
4 Proviso
5 Get Stormy

SPRINT

1 Majesticperfection
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Big Drama
4 Kinsale King
5 Crown of Thorns

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Blind Luck
2 Rachel Alexandra
3 Evening Jewel
4 Devil May Care
5 Havre de Grace

FILLY & MARE TURF

1 Midday
2 Forever Together
3 Dar Re Mi
4 Stacelita
5 Danzon

DIRT MILE

1 Vineyard Haven
2 Musket Man
3 A Little Warm
4 Twirling Candy
5 Concord Point

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

1 Champagne d'Oro
2 Dubai Majesty
3 Rightly So
4 Sweet August Moon
5 Jessica is Back

TURF SPRINT

1 California Flag
2 Chamberlain Bridge
3 Silver Timber
4 Rose Catherine
5 Fleeting Spirit

MARATHON

1 Cloudy's Knight
2 A. U. Miner
3 Unusual Suspect
4 Eldaafer
5 Helicopter

JUVENILE

1 Uncle Mo
2 Boys at Tosconova
3 J P's Gusto
4 Maybesomaybenot
5 Wine Police

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Position Limit
2 Wickedly Perfect
3 Awesome Feather
4 Final Mesa
5 Le Mi Geaux