BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- SEPTEMBER 3rd

We're coming down to the finish now --- there are only three days of racing left at Saratoga this year. Fortunately, they are three great days. The Woodward, the Hopeful, the Forego, and the Spinaway are just a few of the great races left to be run. Therefore, Saratoga will be the site of this week's feature race.

FEATURE RACE: THE WOODWARD

Can Quality Road make amends? That is the main question surrounding this race. He looked nearly unstoppable earlier this year, flying to victory in the Hal's Hope, Donn, and Met Mile. In the Donn, he won by over twelve lengths in track record time.

However, his streak came to an end in last month's Whitney Handicap. Despite setting easy fractions, he was unable to quicken as they turned for home and was nailed by Blame on the wire. Many people felt that Quality Road should have gone faster early to try and run his opponents off their feet, and it's certainly possible that jockey John Velazquez will try that strategy this time.

The second leg of the "Handicap Triple Crown" is about to commence! Let's take a look at who's running. . .

#1: CONVOCATION (6-1)
The second choice on the morning line, Convocation is having a great year. He began the year by winning a one mile allowance race by five lengths before finishing second to Le Grand Cru in the grade III Westchester Stakes. He then threw in a less than stellar fourth behind Quality Road in the Met Mile, beaten seven lengths, but rebounded nicely to finish a fast closing second to Haynesfield in the Suburban Handicap. He prepped for this race in a nine furlong allowance optional claiming event at this track, which he won by a neck in the sharp time of 1:48.78. If Quality Road should falter again, Convocation is more than capable of giving trainer Jimmy Jerkens and jockey Javier Castellano another grade I win here at Saratoga. The pair teamed up last Saturday to win the Travers with Afleet Express. Tomorrow, Convocation will carry 126 pounds, the same as everyone else.

#2: MINE THAT BIRD (10-1)
Poor Mine That Bird has had a lot of trouble since winning last year's Kentucky Derby. Troubled trips and tracks he dislikes have left him winless since the Derby, but things may be different today. For one thing, he will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh tomorrow, rather than Calvin Borel. For another thing, he will wear blinkers for the first time. It's hard to say if these changes will be enough to improve his current form, however. In the gelding's last start, he ran fifth behind Blame and Quality Road in the Whitney, beaten twelve and a half lengths. Prior to that, he ran eighth in the Firecracker Handicap at one mile on turf, a surface he apparently dislikes. However, this will be his third start off of his long layoff and he should improve again tomorrow. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

#3: QUALITY ROAD (1-4)
The overwhelming favorite on the morning line, Quality Road, as I mentioned above, has a reputation to repair. Many people believe that the son of Elusive Quality has distance limitations after seeing him tire in the final strides of the Whitney, and they are probably correct. Although he may very well be unable to go a mile and a quarter, the Woodward is only a mile and an eighth, a distance that he has succeeded at before. Also, he won't have to spot the field weight tomorrow, for the Woodward is run under weight-for-age conditions. He will be ridden by regular rider John Velazquezs and is trained by Todd Pletcher.

#4: ARCODORO (30-1)
The longest shot in the field, Arcodoro was a maiden up until a few months ago. The four year old colt began his career last February, losing four consecutive maiden special weight races. Based on his close second place finish in the last of those four, he was stepped into stakes company in the grade III Cinema Handicap. He led by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but tired late to finish second, beaten a length. Returned to a maiden race, he finished a narrowly beaten fourth. Sent off at 21-1 in his next start, the grade II La Jolla Handicap, he finished a badly beaten ninth. He was then entered in another maiden special weight race, where he finished second, beaten less than two lengths. He was then given a lengthy layoff, returning on May 28th, 2010 in yet another maiden special weight. Finally breaking through with a win, he was stepped up to an allowance optional claiming event, where he finished third, beaten less than three lengths. He prepped for the Woodward with a win in an allowance race at this track. He will be ridden in tomorrow’s race by David Cohen and is trained by Eric Guillot.

#5: INDIAN DANCE (20-1)
Despite the fact that his morning line odds are 20-1, Indian Dance's credentials really aren't that bad. He has won four of his nine starts and is a stakes winner, having won the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes back in March. Since then, he has finished fourth in the Charles Town Classic, fifth in the Elkwood Stakes on turf, and fourth in the Majestic Light Stakes. His last workout was a sharp :59 1/5, and he may be ready to run his best race. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and is trained by Lawrence Murray.

#6: TRANQUIL MANNER (15-1)
Tranquil Manner is a bit of a mystery here. His only appearance in a stakes race yielded a fifth place finish in the grade II Brooklyn Handicap, beaten about eight lengths. However, he ran the best race of his career in his last start, an allowance optional claiming race, which he won by a length despite closing from last into slow fractions. If this pace is quick he could certainly rally for a piece of the money. He will be ridden by Alan Garcia and is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.

#7: MYTHICAL POWER (12-1)
As good as Mythical Power has been in the past, he seems to be in a bit of a slump right now. He has won but one race this year, taking the grade III Texas Mile Stakes by a neck. However, he finished last in his next start, the grade III Lone Star Park Handicap, beaten twenty-four lengths by victorious Redding Colliery. He then finished fourth in the Cornhusker Handicap and fifth in the San Diego Handicap. His best races have come at Lone Star Park, and doesn't seem to be good enough here. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and is trained by Bob Baffert.
So who are my picks? It's obvious a solid field of runners and it is hard to say who will finish second and third. But I cannot see Quality Road losing again tomorrow, as he looks just too tough here.

Here are my full selections. . .

1 Quality Road
2 Convocation
3 Tranquil Manner
4 Mine That Bird
5 Indian Dance
6 Mythical Power
7 Arcodoro

I see a quick pace set by Quality Road and Arcodoro setting up the late runs of Convocation, Tranquil Manner, and Mine That Bird. But I don't think that any of them will catch Quality Road.

OTHER PICKS

FOREGO STAKES (gr. I)

It's very hard to see past Vineyard Haven, who loves seven furlongs and Saratoga, but there are plenty of horses here who could win if he falters.

One horse that I really like is Here Comes Ben. 10-1 on the morning line, he has won three straight and just seems to be getting better and better. Seven furlongs seems to be his best distance and there should be enough pace here to set up his run.

Bribon is another interesting runner. Although he seldom runs at seven furlongs (he has run the distance only once since coming to the United States) it could very well be his best distance. His biggest win came in the Metropolitan Handicap at one mile, but arguably his second best win was in the grade II True North Handicap at six furlongs.

Big Drama should be one of the favorites based on his spectacular form as of late, but seven furlongs may be just a bit too far for him.

Warrior's Reward is the other horse I really like, and he seems to be a seven furlong specialist. He won the grade I Carter Handicap earlier this year, and although he ran poorly in his last start, the Met Mile, he should rebound nicely here if the pace is quick enough to set up his late run.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Here Comes Ben
2 Vineyard Haven
3 Warrior's Reward
4 Bribon
5 Big Drama
6 Girolamo
7 Checklist
8 You and I Forever
9 Starforaday
10 Omniscient
11 Charitable Man

SPINAWAY STAKES (gr. I)

It's Todd Pletcher's four against everyone else's four in the Spinaway Stakes. On raw numbers alone, Todd Pletcher has a 50% chance of winning the race, and when you take into account the fact that his four are the four favorites you have to give him at least a 90% chance of winning.

The morning line favorite is Valiant Passion, who broke her maiden impressively first time out last earlier this month, winning a five and a half furlong maiden special weight by over nine lengths. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, she should definitely be in contention as they turn for home.

However, despite the huge force that Todd Pletcher has, it's very possible that the winner will be Alienation. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has raced twice, winning a maiden special weight by a nose and finishing second to Position Limit in the grade II Adirondack Stakes. If Valiant Passion runs greenly on Sunday, Alienation pull off a mild upset.

If the track should turn up sloppy, Le Mi Geaux should not be forgotten. Although she is the second longest shot in the field, she has won two of her three races (finishing third in the other) and was very impressive in the grade III Schuylerville, which she won by a length and a half over Stopspendingmaria.

Another filly I really like is Abide. The Steve Asmussen-trained filly won her only start by 3 1/2 lengths in an impressive time. She looks ready to run huge on Sunday.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Abide
2 Alienation
3 Valiant Passion
4 Stopspendingmaria
5 Le Mi Geaux
6 R Heat Lightning
7 Sky Hosoya
8 Coax Liberty

DARLEY DEBUTANTE STAKES (gr. I)

1 Wickedly Perfect
2 Avid
3 A Z Warrior
4 Tell a Kelly
5 Sugarinthemorning
6 Izshelegal
7 She'll Heir
8 Riboletta
9 Gone Rebel
10 Righteous Renee

I'll be back with more picks and analysis later. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman