[My apologies for the delay in posting this; it was supposed to be up earlier]
Despite the fact that there are no grade I races to be run this weekend, there's still plenty of exciting racing action. At Louisiana Downs, the Super Derby (gr. II) and the ungraded Sunday Silence Stakes are among the eight stakes races to be run there on Saturday. At Belmont Park, Sara Louise will make her 2010 debut in the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II), but will have to beat the exciting three year old filly Rapport if she is to earn a starting berth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. At Parx Racing, Rose Catherine takes on Dubai Majesty and Canadian Ballet in the $200,000 Turf Amazon Handicap, while First Dude challenges Exhi, Afleet Again, A Little Warm, and others in the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) as he looks to score his first stakes win. Finally, at Monmouth Park, one mustn't forget to watch the promising juvenile Curlinello as he takes on seven rivals in the $100,000 Garden State Stakes. Are you excited? I know I am. It was very, very hard to pick this week’s feature race, but I finally chose the Turf Amazon Handicap.
FEATURE RACE ---- TURF AMAZON HANDICAP
It is not a graded stakes. It only drew six runners. But this race will likely be one of the best of the week and I would be shocked if the winner doesn't end up in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. This is an amazingly solid field and is going to be quite the race to see.
#1: ROSE CATHERINE (3-1)
It just goes to show how talented this field is when a filly like Rose Catherine, who is undefeated in turf sprints, is the 3-1 morning line third choice. The three year old daughter of Speightstown is riding a three race win streak that includes two stakes races, the $70,000 Lena Spencer Stakes and the $93,000 Mongo Queen Stakes. She has shown versatility, go wire-to-wire several times and showing the ability to rate just off the pace other times. This adaptability could prove useful tomorrow, for there is quite a bit of speed in the race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, she will be ridden by Javier Castellano and will carry 115 pounds.
#2: WEST OCEAN (8-5)
The 8-5 morning line favorite has a lot of things going for her. The four year old daughter of Elusive Quality has finished first or second in nine of her ten races, and has never been beaten by more than five and a half lengths. She had rattled of three straight wins starting in March, but fell to defeat last time out in the Incredible Revenge Stakes, where she took the lead in between calls only to be nailed on the wire by Dubai Majesty. With the amount of speed in tomorrow's race, West Ocean should have plenty of pace to set up her late bid. She will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by John Velazquez. She is trained by Todd Pletcher.
#3: ASHTON GIRL (20-1)
Two starts back, Ashton Girl was in a $25,000 claiming race. Three starts back the five year old daughter of Elnadim was in a $7,500 claiming race. Now she is taking on some of the best turf sprinters in the country.
I'm not sure exactly what has happened to Ashton Girl over the last two years, but it isn't too hard to piece her story together. She was running very well in early 2009, competing in allowance races, earning Beyer Speed Figures in the 80's, and ran a very good third on March 28th. This would be her last race until January 2010, and she has been disappointing since her return. Is some injury responsible for her long layoff and disappointing runs this year? I don’t know for sure. But fortunately, she appears to be getting better again, and comes into the Turf Amazon off of a neck win in a five furlong turf allowance race. She also gets into tomorrow's race with only 111 pounds, and if she is ever going to run huge in a stakes race this should be the one. She will be ridden by J. Bisono and is trained by Randy Allen.
#4: LADY RIZZI (8-1)
Lady Rizzi is one of those fillies who seems to be just a step below the top, capable of winning her fair share of stakes races but never quite getting there against the top horses in her division. On the other hand, the seven year old daughter of Rizzi holds the track record for five and a half furlongs on the turf at Saratoga, so she is certainly capable of picking up the pieces should the big guns misfire.
She began 2010 in an allowance race against males, running a strong second to the very nice horse Formidable. She then tried the $52,000 The Very One Stakes, where she ran fourth behind Starfish Bay, beaten less than three lengths.
Then it was on to Colonial Downs, wheres he got up to win the $50,000 Buckland Stakes by a head. An attempt at beating the best of her division in the Incredible Revenge Stakes yielded a third place finish behind Dubai Majesty and West Ocean, beaten four lengths. She then threw in a subpar performance in the Lena Spencer Stakes, tiring to finish ninth behind Rose Catherine. Should she rebound tomorrow, she'll be right there in the stretch. She will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by C. Velasquez. She is trained by Linda Rice.
#5: DUBAI MAJESTY (2-1)
Dubai Majesty is the ultimate picture of versatility. She has a huge win on dirt. She has a second in a grade I on synthetics. She has defeated West Ocean in a turf sprint. Among the horses she has beaten are Informed Decision, Dr. Zic, West Ocean, Lady Rizzi, Secret Gypsy, Hot Dixie Chick, and others.
However, the five year old daughter of Essence of Dubai has a new challenge to overcome tomorrow. Just two weeks ago, she finished second to Informed Decision, beaten a head, in the grade III Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes. Can she come back after only two weeks rest and run her best race? Anything's possible, but it's something to think about. Tomorrow, she will carry top weight of 123 pounds and will be ridden by regular rider Miguel Mena. She is trained by Bret Calhoun.
#6: CANADIAN BALLET (5-1)
Canadian Ballet always runs the same style of race. You go to the lead (or maybe drop into second place) and see how far you can go. This style of running has yielded great performances (victories in the 2009 Lena Spencer and Turf Amazon) and the not so great performances. (a fifth place finish in the The Very One Stakes and a fourth place finish in the Giant's Causeway Stakes.)
How far will the five year old daughter of City Zip go today? Well, she could fade to fifth like she did in her last start, the Lena Spencer Stakes, or she could go all the way to the wire, like she did in the Jenny Wade Handicap two starts back. She has to carry 120 pounds tomorrow, but I'm going to guess that she keeps going today. She will be ridden by Stewart Elliott and is trained by Linda Rice.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Rose Catherine
2 West Ocean
3 Dubai Majesty
4 Canadian Ballet
5 Ladi Rizzi
6 Ashton Girl
I see a very close finish tomorrow, with Rose Catherine narrowly holding off her elders. West Ocean should be absolutely flying late, as will Dubai Majesty, but the latter's kick may not be as effective at this very short distance and she'll miss by about a length. Canadian Ballet will finish fourth, but not badly beaten, followed by Ladi Rizzi and Ashton Girl.
At at least that's how I think it will happen.
QUICK PICKS
GALLANT BLOOM HANDICAP (gr. II)
Sara Louise should be very tough to beat here, but she hasn't raced since last November and may need this race to get her back to top form. If this is the case, than Rapport and Qualia should be able to pick up the pieces. Rapport, one of the three sophomores in the race, comes off of a sharp win in the grade III Victory Ride Stakes, while Qualia has shown fine form throughout her career.
My quick picks are. . .
1 Rapport
2 Sara Louise
3 Qualia
SUPER DERBY (gr. II)
Hurricane Ike is the morning line favorite at 5-2, but has yet to succeed around two turns and this may be a bit of a stretch for him. I like Apart, who comes off of a nice win in the Super Derby Prelude, and Golden Moka, who was very impressive in winning the Prince of Wales Stakes up in Canada. However, my pick is Distorted Economy, third in the El Cajon Stakes to Haimish Hy and Lions Story last time out.
My quick picks are. . .
1 Distorted Economy
2 Golden Moka
3 Hurricane Ike
PENNSYLVANIA DERBY (gr. II)
Despite its $1,000,000 purse, the Pennsylvania Derby drew only seven horses. The morning line favorite is First Dude, who has finished second or third in five consecutive grade I races, including the Preakness and Belmont. He's probably the best horse in the race, but should he fail to fire tomorrow, there are plenty of horses who can step up to grab the victory.
Obviously, Exhi, winner of four straight earlier this spring, is a top contender. His win streak was broken last time out when he finished second to Concord Point in the grade II West Virginia Derby, but he was nearly nine lengths clear of the third place finisher and should run huge tomorrow. A Little Warm, winner of the Jim Dandy, should also be in the mix if he rebounds off of his poor performance in the Travers Stakes.
So here are my quick picks. . .
1 Exhi
2 First Dude
3 Morning Line
4 A Little Warm
5 Afleet Again
6 Friend or Foe
7 Severe Weather
Another notable race this Saturday is the tenth at Presque Isle Downs, a two and a quarter mile (NOT a typo!) starter allowance race. The second choice, Helicopter, is one of my favorite horses. The race may be a bit long for him, but he has always been a nice horse and may end up in the Breeders' Cup Marathon later this year.
In Canada, Stately Victor takes on Queen's Plate Stakes top two finishers Big Red Mike and Hotep in the Ontario Derby, a nine furlong race run on the main track. In the Sunday Silence Stakes on the undercard of the Super Derby, the undefeated two year old colt Aces N Kings goes for his sixth victory. Bim Bam and Fly By Phil meet in the Needles Stakes at Calder Race Course, and at Delaware Park, Barbaro's full brother Lentenor takes on Interactif, Grand Rapport, and Workin for Hops in the (gr. III) Kent Stakes. There's all kinds of racing action this weekend, and more than a few Breeders' Cup runners should emerge from this Saturday's races. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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