Saratoga and Del Mar have completed their summer meets. The Woodward, Forego, Hopeful, Spinaway, Del Mar Futurity, and Darley Debutante are all in the history books. Several horses have taken another step closer to the Breeders' Cup, and a few others have shown that they may be vulnerable in November.
As there aren’t any grade I races this weekend, this week’s feature race will be the grade III Kentucky Cup Turf Stakes from Kentucky Downs. It's going to be a truly memorable race, for the defending winner and morning line favorite, Cloudy's Knight, is making his first start since suffering a serious injury several months ago that nearly caused him to be retired. Add that to the fact that he is at least twice as old as all of his competitors and you find a race that should not be missed for anything.
FEATURE RACE: KENTUCKY CUP TURF (gr. III)
12 furlongs on the turf
#1: CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (2-1)
The morning line favorite, Cloudy's Knight is ten years old. That's not a typo. He is ten years old. He broke his maiden in 2003, when Funny Cide was the talk of the racing world. He ran in his first stakes race in 2004, one month after Birdstone upset Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes. He won his first stakes race on September 18th 2004, one week after Ghostzapper outdueled Saint Liam in the Woodward Stakes.
On and off success followed, and it wasn't until 2007 that the gelding won his first graded stakes, sweeping past pace-setting Devilment to win the grade III Fair Grounds Breeders' Cup Handicap. The victory came just one week after Curlin made his debut.
His first and only grade I win came later that year, when he held off favored Ask to win the Canadian International by a nose at odds of 18-1. Six days later Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic.
In 2008, he showed very poor form, failing to hit the board in four starts. Given slightly more than a year's rest, he returned on September 19th, 2009 to win the grade III Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes by two and a half lengths. His form has been incredible since.
Wins in the grade III Sycamore Stakes, the grade II W. L. McKnight Handicap, and Valedictory Stakes followed, as well as a close second in the Breeders' Cup Marathon. In the W. L. McKight, the horses he disposed of included Spice Route, Winchester, and Presious Passion.
Following a routine five furlong workout on April 19th, 2010, a tendon injury was discovered that nearly brought his long career to a close. But the ten year old gelding is back yet again. He has recorded two workouts since returning to training, the first coming on September 2nd, a six furlong breeze in 1:19 2/5, the second being a five furlong breeze on the 8th in 1:01 1/5. He may not be ready for this race, but I'm sure he'll give it everything he has. He will carry top weight of 122 pounds and will be ridden by Rosemary Homeister Jr.
#2: FREE FIGHTER (3-1)
If Cloudy's Knight proves the least bit rusty tomorrow, it will likely be the second choice Free Fighter who takes advantage of the situation. The five year old gelding won the mile and a half Louisville Handicap (gr. III) earlier this year. However, his three efforts since then have not been very inspiring, although he did have the lead at the eighth pole of the thirteen furlong Stars and Stripes Turf Stakes (gr. III) last time out. He seems to do his best running at this mile and a half distance and should be right there at the finish. He will be ridden by E. Perez and will carry 118 pounds. He is trained by Chris Block.
#3: GUADALCANAL (8-1)
This five year old gelding made the headlines two years ago ---- when he was entered in the Belmont Stakes despite having never won a race. He ran seventh that day, beaten about twenty-five lengths.
Since then, he has won three races, a maiden special weight and two allowance races. His last win came on June 25th, 2009. His form this year has not been very good. From four starts, he has managed a sixth in an allowance race and a sixth, a fourth, and a second in allowance optional claiming events. Although this distance and surface appears to be his best, he does not seem to be good enough to win here.
He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by B. Blanc. He is trained by F. Seitz.
#4: REZIF (20-1)
Although on the surface Rezif appears to be nowhere near good enough to win here, it is fairly possible that Rezif is capable of making his presence felt. He came from last in this race last year to finish second at odds of 33-1 and has been known to muster powerful late charges in the past. The circumstances appear ideal for a sharp performance tomorrow, and I would not be surprised to see him flying late. He will be ridden by G. Kuntzweiler and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by Matthew Jacobson.
#5: COOLCULLEN TIMES (4-1)
The third choice on the morning line, Coolcullen Times has made four starts since coming to the United States. In his American debut, he ran a narrowly beaten fifth in an allowance race. This was followed by a ninth place finish, beaten five lengths, in the grade II Dixie Handicap. He then finished second in an allowance race and third in the John's Call Stakes, beaten a length after leading at the eighth pole. I believe that this gelding will get better with distance and should be right there in the stretch tomorrow. He will be ridden by Alex Solis and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by H. G. Motion.
#6: CELTIC NEW YEAR (20-1)
The only three year old in the field, Celtic New Year comes off of a win in a handicap race on the turf at Ellis Park. However, he seems to have some distance limitations and in his one appearance in a stakes race, the grade III Transylvania Stakes, he ran last of seven. He will be ridden by D. Mernagh and is trained by C. Peery. He will carry 112 pounds.
#7: CLASS BOPPER (30-1)
Class Bopper has had a very unusual career. After failing to win any kind of flat race, he was tried in a two and a quarter mile hurdle race, which he won by a length and a quarter. He came back a week later in the Gladstone Hurdle Stakes, he led to the three eighths pole before he ducked in and left the course, failing to finish the race.
Returned to flat races, he broke his maiden going one mile on the turf at Colonial Downs before finishing second in a similar allowance race. He then won an allowance race and finished second in an allowance optional claiming race before being returned to the hurdles in the Supreme Hurdle Stakes, which he won.
He was then given a length break, returning in a flat allowance race earlier this year, where he ran a well beaten ninth. A fourth in an optional claiming event was followed by a fifth in a similar event. In his final start prior to tomorrow's race, he won the two and a quarter mile grade III David L. (Zeke) Ferguson Memorial Hurdle Stakes by ten lengths. Although his future appears to be in hurdle races, it's possible that he has gotten better with age and might be able to handle this mile and a half flat race. He will be ridden by R. Boucher and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by L. Boucher.
#8: IMPONENTE PURSE (8-1)
The lightly raced Imponente Purse has only made eight starts, five of them coming in Brazil. Since coming to the United States, he has run three races, beginning with a runner up performance in a ten furlong turf allowance race. He then finished tenth in the grade III Arlington Handicap, beaten about twelve lengths, and third in a mile and a half allowance optional claiming race. If he is to someday win a graded stakes race, this looks like the perfect spot. He will be ridden by T. Pompell and is trained by E. Caramori.
#9: NEGRO DA GAITA (30-1)
Negro Da Gaita, the co-longest shot in the race, has only made one race in the United States, finishing seventh in an allowance optional claiming event. He has only won two races, both of them coming in his native Brazil. He does not seem likely to hit the board here, but you never know. He will be ridden by S. Gonzalez. and will carry 116 pounds. He is trained by E. Caramori.
So who do I like? It's hard to say who is going to win this race. The favorite hasn't raced in months and is coming back from an injury and every other runner has some questions to answer.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Rezif
2 Cloudy's Knight
3 Coolcullen Times
4 Free Fighter
5 Guadalcanal
6 Imponente Purse
7 Class Bopper
8 Celtic New Year
9 Negro Da Gaita
Although I do think that Cloudy's Knight is going to eventually make a successful comeback, I don't think that he will be able to win his first start back. He has only two workouts to get him ready and the distance of this race may actually be just a little bit too short for him.
I like Rezif. I honestly think that he is one of the horses to beat and he should not be 20-1. He has been mustering some very good late runs and did finish second in this race last year.
OTHER PICKS
BOWLING GREEN HANDICAP (gr. II)
With Grand Coutrier scratching to run in the Northern Dancer Stakes at Woodbine, the complexion of the race has changed. After all, Grand Coutrier was the winner of this race last year.
Obviously the multiple grade I winner Winchester is the one to beat, seeing that he has already beaten 2009 dual Eclipse champion Gio Ponti, but I really like Interpatation. Although he has only won six races. . . from fifty-five starts. . . I thought he ran extremely well in the Sword Dancer last time out, getting trapped behind horses in the stretch and being bumped several times. He still managed to run fourth, beaten less than four lengths, and I believe he is ready for a top effort tomorrow.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Winchester
2 Interpatation
3 Al Khali
4 Jeune-Turc
5 Dry Martini
6 Southwest
7 Strike a Deal
8 Simmard
9 Gabriel's Hill
10 Followmyfootsteps
PRESQUE ISLE DOWNS MASTERS STAKES (gr. III)
It's hard not to like Informed Decision, who won this race last year on her way to earning the Eclipse award for champion female sprinter. However, she does not seem to be the same filly that she was last year.
Two weeks ago, in the Ballerina Stakes, she ran a dismal sixth of eight. Her two other grade I attempts this year have yielded third place finishes. Her record in 2009 was seven starts, six wins, one third. Her record this year is five starts, two wins, two thirds and a sixth.
Still, she is the Eclipse champion, and the Ballerina was on dirt, a surface she doesn't like as much as synthetics. If Informed Decision is going to try and piece her 2010 campaign back together, this is the spot to do it. However, coming back in two weeks may be just a little bit quick.
If anyone is going to upset Informed Decision it will likely be Dubai Majesty. She has been in fine form this year, beginning with a runner up effort, beaten a nose, in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint Stakes. She then finished second again, this time by a head, in the Pan Zareta Stakes. She was second yet again in the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes, although she did finish ahead of Informed Decision, but then ran last in the grade I Humana Distaff on a sloppy track.
Her next start came in the grade III Winning Colors Stakes, a race she won by four and a half impressive lengths, scorching the six furlong distance in 1:08 flat.
Then came the grade I Princess Rooney Handicap at Calder Race Course. Although she gave it everything she had, Dubai Majesty ran third behind Jessica is Back and Warbling. She then tried the turf in the Incredible Revenge Stakes and just got up to defeat West Ocean by a neck. This brings her to tomorrow's race. She does have to break from the rail, which isn't great, but I think that she can overcome everything to win here.
Another notable filly is Dr. Zic, who beat both Informed Decision and Dubai Majesty in the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes back in April. If she runs back to that form she will be dangerous, however, two subsequent starts have yielded a second in the grade III Hendrie Stakes and a dismal ninth in the Princess Rooney.
Then there is Red Hot Buddha, who had to check sharply when a hole closed in her last race, resulting in a fifth place finish. Prior to that, she won an allowance race at this track by eight lengths. If everything goes her way, she should be right there at the finish.
So here are my top five picks. . .
1 Dubai Majesty
2 Red Hot Buddha
3 Informed Decision
4 Dr. Zic
5 Mother Russia
It's an influential bunch of races out there, and at least a few of the horses running this weekend will be seen at the Breeders' Cup. Will they win? We'll know in November.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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