Yesterday's races were supposed to clear up the Breeders' Cup picture, not muddle it even more than was already. Of all the races I mentioned on my last post, almost all were upset victories. Sara Louise, First Dude, Hurricane Ike, Aces N Kings, Astrology, and Big Red Mike all fell to defeat. Several new Breeders' Cup contenders emerged, and several others lost a bit of their luster.
I'll begin this post with a recap of the Turf Amazon Handicap, last Saturday's feature race.
Here are the results. . .
1 Rose Catherine
2 West Ocean
3 Canadian Ballet
4 Lady Rizzi
5 Ashton Girl
And here were my picks. . .
1 Rose Catherine
2 West Ocean
3 Canadian Ballet
4 Lady Rizzi
5 Ashton Girl
With the scratch of Dubai Majesty, the field was left with only five runners. West Ocean was the morning line favorite, but Rose Catherine was heavily bet and ended up being sent off as the odds-on favorite.
This race really showed just how good a filly Rose Catherine is. She broke slowest of all, but quickly raced up to take the early lead, battling with Ashton Girl and Canadian Ballet. However, the first quarter mile was a tepid :22 4/5, which was probably why Rose Catherine found herself on the lead. West Ocean, sent off as the second choice, found herself in fourth early on, followed by Lady Rizzi.
With a quarter mile to go, it was Rose Catherine who still led Canadian Ballet and Ashton Girl, and was beginning to pull away. West Ocean snuck through along the rail to reach contention, but Rose Catherine wasn't stopping. She got the half mile in :45 2/5 and finished up the five furlongs in :57 2/5, winning by just under two lengths. West Ocean finished second, another two lengths clear of Canadian Ballet. Lady Rizzi passed a tiring Ashton Girl to finish fourth, meaning that the five horses finished according to the odds --- Rose Catherine was the favorite, West Ocean the second choice, Canadian Ballet the third choice, Lady Rizzi the fourth choice, and Ashton Girl the longshot.
Seeing that Canadian Ballet ran fifth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint against males last year, so it seems likely that Rose Catherine and West Ocean both deserve to be in that race this year. Time will tell if they can handle California Flag and Chamberlain Bridge, but it for now they must be considered good enough to deserve a shot at it.
The Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont Park, however, turned out some major surprises. Here are the results. . .
1 My Jen
2 Moontune Missy
3 Sara Louise
4 Qualia
5 Pretty Prolific
6 Rapport
7 Lovely Lil
8 Devil by Design
And here were my quick picks. . .
1 Rapport
2 Sara Louise
3 Qualia
After seeing the race be run, everything clicked. My pick, Rapport, was coming off of a decisive win over My Jen in the grade III Victory Ride Stakes. I forgot the fact that Saratoga on Victory Ride day had a tremendous main track speed bias, which certainly helped Rapport go wire-to-wire. When faced with tougher competition on a fair track, she folded rather quickly. My Jen, who had closed well in the Victory Ride, came flying on the far outside in the Gallant Bloom to snatch the victory away from longshot Moontune Missy at odds of 12-1, with Sara Louise rallying late for third.
The race set up as expected, with Rapport going to the early lead. However, Qualia, who typically comes from off the pace, was right with her early and refused to give up the rail. The pair dueled through a :22 4/5 opening quarter and a :46 flat half mile, with Moontune Missy getting a nice stalking trip in third. My Jen and Lovely Lil were next, followed by Devil by Design and Sara Louise. Pretty Prolific was the trailer.
As they turned for home, Rapport gave way, leaving Qualia to dual with Moontune Missy, who was coming strongly on the outside. Moontune Missy looked home free at the eighth pole, but My Jen and Sara Louise were coming with their late bids. It took My Jen the length of the stretch to catch Moontune Missy, but she got her head down first at the wire.
The final time was 1:17 flat, well off the track record but a sharp performance nonetheless. My Jen closed her final sixteenth in about :5 4/5 seconds, so she was really flying home.
Qualia should rebound nicely in her next start should she return to her off-the-pace running style, and I wouldn't give up on Rapport yet.
The Super Derby really wasn't all that surprising, but the two favorites failed to run well, leaving the horse who won the Super Derby Prelude to snatch the Super Derby as well.
Here are the results. . .
1 Apart
2 Distorted Economy
3 Hurricane Ike
4 Ricky Tick
5 Golden Moka
6 Arctic Comet
And here were my quick picks. . .
1 Distorted Economy
2 Golden Moka
3 Hurricane Ike
In the early going, it was the favorite, Hurricane Ike, who led the way. Through a challenging quarter mile of :23 1/5, Hurricane Ike held a half-length lead over the second choice Golden Moka. Apart and Distorted Economy were racing together in third, followed by long shots Arctic Comet and Ricky Tick. They pretty much didn't change positions through a half mile in :49 flat and three quarters in 1:14 3/5. Hurricane Ike was doing his best to slow the pace down and was succeeding.
However, even the snail like pace could not enable Hurricane Ike to go on, as he was passed by Distorted Economy at the eighth pole following a mile in 1:39 2/5. The latter seemed to be on his way to victory, but Super Derby Prelude winner Apart had other ideas. Charging strongly in the middle of the track, he went from two lengths behind Distorted Economy to a length-and-a-half in front as he stormed under the wire. The final time was 1:52 1/5, more than four seconds off of the track record.
Distorted Economy finished a clear second, with Hurricane Ike finding enough to hold off Ricky Tick for third. Golden Moka was a disappointing fifth, although he was beaten less than four lengths, and Arctic Comet finished last.
The Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing added yet another bizarre chapter to the story of First Dude, the colt who has been incapable of winning a stakes race. His last six races have yielded a third in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), a second in the Preakness (gr. I), a third in the Belmont (gr. I), a third in the Haskell (gr. I) and a third in the Travers (gr. I). Surely he could win a six horse grade II race?
Incredibly, he encountered bad racing luck and was beaten yet again by a previously unheralded but promising Morning Line. The latter was coming off of an eleven length victory over older horses in an allowance race, and although he had been a bit inconsistent, he looked ready to turn in a nice effort.
Nice effort indeed. He stepped up to the task and came back when headed in the stretch to win.
Here are the results. . .
1 Morning Line
2 First Dude
3 A Little Warm
4 Exhi
5 Afleet Again
6 Severe Weather
And here were my picks. . .
1 Exhi
2 First Dude
3 Morning Line
4 A Little Warm
5 Afleet Again
6 Severe Weather
The field was reduced to six after the scratch of Friend or Foe. First Dude was sent off as the favorite at about 3-2, with A Little Warm the second choice at 3-1 and Morning Line at 4-1.
Morning Line, off a bit slowly, was quickly sent to the front, but would not be alone. First Dude was being sent to the front on the far outside and the two colts hooked up to cut the first quarter mile in :23 2/5. Although First Dude dropped back just a bit, Morning Line stilled reeled off a strong :47 1/5 half mile. Exhi, who broke inward at the start, was tracking them in third, with A Little Warm biding his time in fourth. Afleet Again was way off the pace in fifth, followed by the 76-1 longshot Severe Weather.
Following a testing three quarters in 1:10 4/5, it was still Morning Line who led the way, but only by a half-length. First Dude was making yet another run on the outside, but it was A Little Warm who seemed to be moving best of all. Following a mile in 1:35 flat, the Jim Dandy winner took the lead from Morning Line and shut off First Dude at the three sixteenths pole, looking like he was on his way to victory. First Dude seemed to be on his way to another third place finish, but instead of throwing in the towel, he showed just how good he is by turning in one final, determined bid.
Morning Line was also showing just how game he was. Despite having lost the lead to A Little Warm, he found one last gear and reclaimed the lead in the final yards, and had just enough guts to hold off First Dude for a neck win. First Dude closed very strongly to nose A Little Warm for second. It was eight lengths further back to Exhi, with Afleet Again and Severe Weather completing the order of finish.
The final time was a sharp 1:47 4/5, less than a second off of the track record. Morning Line is definitely a three year old to keep an eye on, perhaps as a contender for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
The Kent Stakes for three year olds on the turf was not a surprise. The favorite, although only the third choice on the morning line, was Grand Rapport. Working for Hops was sent off as the narrow second choice over Interactif, who is always well bet but rather inconsistent.
Here are the results. . .
1 Grand Rapport
2 Workin for Hops
3 Stormy Lord
4 They Call Me Giant
5 Thunder Brew
6 Interactif
7 Lentenor
8 Majestictroubadour
Although I did not post my picks on my discussion of Saturday's races, I selected Workin for Hops and did not think that Grand Rapport could win here. I felt he was a much better colt at a mile and a half and that he would finish a let closing fourth or third at nine furlongs.
It seemed logical, but apparently it wasn't, for Grand Rapport flew home with a tremendous late run to defeat Workin for Hops by a half-length.
In the early going, it was mild longshot Stormy Lord who led the way. Workin for Hops settled into a nice spot running second, followed by Majestictroubadour and Thunder Brew. Lentenor was rating nicely in fifth, three lengths off the lead, with Grand Rapport and Interactif racing together in sixth. They Call Me Giant, who hopped at the start, was back in last, eight lengths from the lead.
The first quarter mile was run in a very slow :25 2/5, which makes Grand Rapport's late run even more impressive. Stormy Lord and Workin for Hops had the race all to their own, carving out fractions of :49 3/5 and 1:13 flat. Working for Hops made his bid for the lead and had a head advantage after a mile in 1:36 3/5. It looked like he was on his way to victory. Thunder Brew was tiring. Majestictroubadour was giving way rapidly. Grand Rapport was still three lengths off the lead. Workin for Hops was home free!
I thought.
Then Grand Rapport switched from third to ninth gear, blowing past Grand Rapport to win the mile and an eighth race in 1:48 3/5. He ran his final three eighths in about :35 seconds. Many people believe that Paddy O'Prado is America's best chance at winning the Breeders' Cup Turf. After this performance, it is entirely possible that Grand Rapport is out best chance.
Workin for Hops held second over Stormy Lord, with They Call Me Giant rallying late to complete the superfecta. Thunder Brew, Interactif, Lentenor, and Majestictroubadour followed. Amazingly, despite finishing seventh, Lentenor was only beaten five lengths for everything.
In the tenth race at Louisiana Downs, the Sunday Silence Stakes, the undefeated Aces N Kinds fell to defeat for the first time. However, he proved yesterday just how much courage he has.
Sent off as the odds on favorite, Aces N Kings broke beautifully and settled in behind the leaders Unitas and Unbridled Sheriff. The fractions were honest ones, :23 2/5 for the first quarter mile and :48 4/5 for the half. Aces N Kings began to inch closer, drawing to within three quarters of a length after three quarters of a mile in 1:13 4/5. However, trouble quickly arose, and Aces N Kings found himself in traffic as they approached the quarter pole. Shuffled back to sixth, he looked done for. At the eight pole he was three and a half lengths from the lead. But those final 220 yards proved what a champion Aces N Kings is, as he shifted to the outside and hit the highest gear he could find. Inch by inch he made back the ground he had lost, hitting the wire together with four other colts.
The slow motion replay told the tale. Aces N Kings was making up ground at an alarming rate, and had the lead just yards from the finish, but Dreamsrunwild, a 12-1 shot, managed to put his head down on the wire first. Aces N Kings suffered his first defeat in what was perhaps his greatest race. It was another nose back to Unbridled Sheriff, another neck back to Majestic Knight, and a head to El Grayling.
Aces N Kings is a juvenile to watch. Perhaps he doesn't have the brilliance of Uncle Mo, Boys at Tosconova, or J P's Gusto, but he has shown more determination than his flashier counterparts. Perhaps he isn't good enough to compete in the Triple Crown, but I'm sure that we will be able to enjoy the gutsy gelding for a long time.
At Monmouth Park, there was another interesting two year old race. Curlinello was the morning line favorite, and was bet down to 3-5 in the early betting, but the promising Astrology was sent off as the narrow favorite. Neither of them would win, however, as it was Sweet Ducky who came away with the victory.
The early pace was set by Brave Romeo, who rattled off fractions of :24 2/5 and :49 3/5 while being pressed by Sweet Ducky. Astrology, Curlinello, and Loving Dove were right behind them, with Private Rules and Tiz Blessed trailing the field. The latter stumbled at the start and was never really in with a chance after that.
Sweet Ducky took over the lead as they turned for home, getting six furlongs in 1:14 2/5. Bravo Romeo was giving way, and Astrology and Curlinello were making their bids for the lead. Astrology weakened inside the final eighth of a mile, but Curlinello charged strongly along the inside, making up two lengths in the final eighth to finish second, beaten a half-length. Astrology held third, followed by Tiz Blessed, Loving Dove, Bravo Romeo, and Private Rules.
In the Ontario Derby up in Canada, it was Stately Victor who pulled a mild upset to claim his first victory since taking the Blue Grass Stakes back April. Rated about three to four lengths off the pace set by Kara's Orientation, he made a bold run to take the lead in the stretch and drew off to win by just over three lengths. So Elite also made a strong bid to finish a clear second, with Queen's Plate Stakes runner-up Hotep finishing third. Big Red Mike, winner of the Queen's Plate Stakes, finished a disappointing sixth after pressing the pace, beaten nearly eighteen lengths.
In the tenth race at Presque Isle Downs, the two and a quarter mile start allowance race that I mentioned, Helicopter, sent off as the narrowest of favorites, was rated about twenty lengths from the front in the early going, split horses at the top of the stretch, and drove away to win by a length and a quarter in track record time. Cursesandblessings finished second, followed by C R's Deputy and Spiritwood. I do believe that Helicopter is a very special horse and is a contender for the Breeders' Cup Marathon.
In England at Ascot race course, there was surprising upset in the one mile group I Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Mafki, who had upset two time Breeders' Cup Mile winner Goldikova in the Prix Jacques le Marois, was the heavy favorite over Rip Van Winkle. However, Poet's Voice, coming off of an impressive win in the group II Celebration Mile, proved best in the end. Last of eight early on, he made a very bold run under Frankie Dettori to just get up in time, defeating Rip Van Winkle, who had won the race in 2009, by a nose. The latter tracked his pacemaker in the early going and took the lead in the stretch, and just held second over 40-1 shot Red Jazz. Beethoven finished fourth, three quarters of a length in front of Mafki, who showed very little. Hearts of Fire, Bushman, and pace setter Air Chief Marshal completed the order of finish.
In the other grade I race at Ascot, the Fillies' Mile, the undefeated two year old White Moonstone battled gamely under Frankie Dettori to score a neck victory over Together and Theysken's Theory. However, she will not be raced again this year, which eliminates the Breeders' Cup from consideration, but she should be a major player in the 2011 European classics.
The most impressive performance at Ascot, however, came from the undefeated juvenile Frankel, named for the late Bobby Frankel. Coming from last under Tom Queally, he blew past the entire field on the turn and drew off to win by ten lengths. He is currently the heavy favorite for the 2011 Two Thousand Guineas and Epsom Derby, but is unlikely for the Breeders' Cup.
Be sure to join me next weekend for Breeders' Cup Preview weekend, as Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Blame, Twirling Candy, Awesome Gem, Richard's Kid, Fame and Glory, Cape Blanco, Youmzain, Goldikova, and others all take on grade I races on Saturday and Sunday. It's the biggest weekend of the fall and will definitely help sort out the muddled Breeders' Cup picture. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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