TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 27th, 2010

For some, the results of the Triple Crown prep races on February 20th went absolutely perfect. For others, it could not have turned out worst. For me, the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) turned out to be a nightmare. Let's take a look at what happened over the past couple of days. . .

To begin with, there was the highly anticipated Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Buddy's Saint. He was my selection to win the race, (I also liked Jackson Bend) but more importantly he was my early selection for the Kentucky Derby. I could even picture the promising colt sweeping the Triple Crown.

The race turned out exactly how I hoped it wouldn't. At the start, Buddy's Saint was a step slow, but the worst was what happened going into the first turn. He was bumped multiple times by Aikenite and forced to check as Aikenite continued to bump him around. He dropped back to seventh after a quarter of a mile, and failed to threaten after that, ending up ninth. Fortunately, he was not injured, but he may not make the Triple Crown. We will know in a week or two.

Of course, it wasn't all gloom in the Fountain of Youth, for another potential Triple Crown contender emerged from the shadows. Sitting second for the first five furlongs or so, Eskendereya, a son of Giant's Causeway, took over the lead from a fading Lost Aptitude and drew off from there, winning by eight and a half lengths at odds of about 4-1. He performance was hugely impressive, and he has loudly announced that any colt who dares mess with him better be a monster himself. Ridden by John Velazquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, he looks tough to beat in the Florida Derby a month from now. He has the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter and beyond. His dam is by Seattle Slew, and the remainder of his pedigree contains such great names as Storm Cat, Rahy, Blushing Groom, Glorious Song, Secretariat, Northern Dancer (twice), Bold Ruler (twice), Halo, Hail to Reason (twice), Native Dancer, Raise a Native, Round Table, Poker, and Ribot are the first names that catch my eye.

This next fact has absolutely nothing to do with his ability, but I find it interesting that he won the Fountain of Youth the day before his birthday. . . Happy Birthday Eskendereya!

That said, I shall return to the details of the race.

Jackson Bend, who sat in fourth for about five furlongs, moved up to second with three furlongs to go but could not stay with Eskendereya, but he did hang on to second place. Aikenite, who came away from the bumping incident unscathed, sat sixth early on but moved up throught the race to just miss second by three quarters of a length. It was another length back to Pleasant Prince, who grabbed fourth as the longest shot in the field. Following him was Ice Box, who raced last for a half mile before making a five wide run. He was unable to continue his advance, but did outfight Pulsion for the fifth spot. The latter raced far back through out and failed to rally. One and one quarter lengths behind him was Positive Split, who raced up close early before fading. Then it was Prince Will I Am, nearly four lengths Positive Split, but a good five lengths in front of Buddy's Saint. Finally, Lost Aptitude, who set the pace for the first half mile, ended up dead last, trailing the field by forty-five and a half lengths. He was twenty-three and three quarter lengths behind Buddy's Saint alone.

So here are the results of the race. . .

1 Eskendereya
2 Jackson Bend
3 Aikenite
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Ice Box
6 Pulsion
7 Positive Split
8 Prince Will I Am
9 Buddy's Saint
10 Lost Aptitude

. . . versus my selections.

1 Buddy's Saint
2 Jackson Bend
3 Pulsion
4 Prince Will I Am
5 Eskendereya
6 Aikenite
7 Ice Box
8 Positive Split
9 Pleasant Prince
10 Lost Aptitude

As you can see, I was very wrong about everything. Eskendereya ran a huge race, much better than I thought he would. I knew he had a shot at winning, but I figured the finish would be closer than it was. Obviously, I could not predict that Buddy's Saint would get bumped on the first turn, but I did have Jackson Bend pegged correctly. Still, I figured that he would run a better race than he did. Pulsion just didn't present the needed rally, and the same thing happened with Prince Will I Am. Aikenite ran better than I thought he would, as did Ice Box and Pleasant Prince. Finally, Positive Split ran about how I expected, and so did Lost Aptitude.

So getting back to Eskendereya, he appears to be the real deal. His pedigree is terrific, and he should have no problems going a mile and a half. I would not be surprised if Todd Pletcher finally got his first Kentucky Derby win. That said, let’s move on to the Risen Star Stakes. The race was a mile and a sixteenth in distance, and was run at Fair Grounds racetrack in Louisiana.

After much consideration, I selected Discreetly Mine as my choice for the race. I knew that he might not get the distance, but I thought that he had the class to pull it off.

As they broke from the gates, (I was listening to radio coverage of the race) I was surprised to hear that Discreetly Mine was being rushed up to take the lead. I had been positive that he would sit just off of the lead. I was concerned that he might run out of gas long before the finish, but when I heard the fractions of :24 3/5, :48 3/5, and 1:13 2/5 I realized two things: Discreetly Mine was going to be tough to catch and Ron the Greek wasn’t going to be coming from the clouds this time. At the wire, it was Discreetly Mine by a length and a half with Ron the Greek about four lengths back in sixth. Drosselmeyer just didn’t have the needed rally and finished fourth, but he was only beaten one and three quarter lengths for all the money. He should keep improving with more distance. Northern Giant, sent off at odds of nearly 54-1, ran a huge race, going three wide on both turns to finish third, a head in front of Drosselmeyer and a neck behind Tempted to Tapit, who at odds of 8-1 stalked in second the entire race and just managed to hang on to the runner up spot.

So here are the final results. . .

1 Discreetly Mine
2 Tempted to Tapit
3 Northern Giant
4 Drosselmeyer
5 Stay Put
6 Ron the Greek
7 Worldly
8 Letsgetitonmon
9 Mountain Justice
10 Hotep
11 Random Move
12 Bravo Whiskey

. . . versus my selections.

1 Discreetly Mine
2 Hotep
3 Ron the Greek
4 Tempted to Tapit
5 Stay Put
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Letsgetitonmon
8 Northern Giant
9 Worldly
10 Bravo Whiskey
11 Mountain Justice
12 Random Move

So, I was close in some ways and not close in others. I was completely wrong about Hotep, who was obviously not ready for this level of competition. Stay Put ran a really nice race, closing well off of the slow fractions while wide, and Northern Giant could potentially make it to the Kentucky Derby, which would give D. Wayne Lukas a second runner in that race if Dublin comes along as planned. Welcome back Lukas!

So here is how the race unfolded. . .

The gates opened and Northern Giant broke fastest of all. Discreetly Mine also broke alertly, with Random Move off to a good start as well. Tempted to Tapit broke just a step slowly, while Ron the Greek got off last of them all.

After the first quarter of a mile, it was Discreetly Mine on the lead by one and a half lengths, followed closely by Tempted to Tapit and Northern Giant. Sitting fourth was Worldly, with Random Move right behind him. Stay Put, Letsgetitonmon, and Ron the Greek were the trailers.

After the half mile pole, the top three positions were unchanged, with Tempted to Tapit inching closer to Discreetly Mine with and Random Move up into the fourth spot. Drosselmeyer, sixth after a quarter of a mile, was now fifth, while Ron the Greek had passed only Letsgetitonmon. Stay Put was still tenth, while Hotep was going nowhere. Worldly was beginning to retreat just a bit.

With only five sixteenths left to go, Drosselmeyer was continuing his advance, while Discreetly Mine’s lead had shrunken to a half of a length. Ron the Greek was floundering in eleventh, with a monumental 11 ¾ lengths to make up, while Stay Put had moved up to ninth. Meanwhile, Northern Giant was still running the race of his life, still a clear cut third.

As they turned for home, Discreetly Mine repelled the challenge presented by Tempted to Tapit, but Northern Giant and Drosselmeyer were both moving in, fully intending to snatch the victory from the front runner. Despite everything being against him, Ron the Greek was still managing to close off the insanely slow fractions, and was now only eight lengths off of the lead. Stay Put was also putting in a rally, moving into the fifth position, but while closing through the stretch, was unable to get up for fourth.

So that was how the race unfolded. As I said before, Discreetly Mine held on for the win, while Ron the Greek still managed to get sixth, beaten only four and a quarter lengths. So I greatly look forward to seeing Ron the Greek race again, perhaps next time with a little more distance and pace to chase.

Just an interesting note, of the twelve starters, four of them had made their last starts in other states, and eight of them had made their last start at Fair Grounds. The four shippers were Discreetly Mine, Tempted to Tapit, Northern Giant, and Drosselmeyer.

Now I shall move on to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The biggest question surrounding this race was whether or not Dublin could turn in a good effort after having a breathing problem corrected. He proved to everyone there that he could, and that he was back to the form that saw him win the grade I Hopeful Stakes last year.

Unfortunately, he didn’t quite secure the win. Conveyance, the favorite, was undefeated in three starts prior to the Southwest Stakes and upped his record to four for four, registering a front running victory over Dublin, who closed fast late to grab second. It is now obvious that Dublin needs just a bit more ground, and that he should, barring another problem, be one of the main contenders for the Triple Crown. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the son of Afleet Alex looks bred to get at least a mile and a quarter, if not a mile and a half.

Getting back to Conveyance, the Bob Baffert trained son of Indian Charlie was very impressive, running the first three quarters of a mile in 1:10 3/5, but it looks as though he doesn’t want to go much farther than a mile. Still, he could be a menace if left alone on the lead. It was good to see him digging in at the finish to hold off Dublin by three quarters of a length. It showed that he has the courage to repel challenges, which is good to see in any horse, and is especially good if the horse is a candidate for the Triple Crown.

The big disappointment of the race was Dryfly, who was sent off as the second choice. The gelded son of Jump Start was coming off of a win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at one mile. He sat in third for three quarters of a mile before fading in the drive to finish ninth of ten. The big surprise of the race was Cardiff Giant, who made a good rally at odds of nearly 26-1 to secure a comfortable third. Mission Impazible, sent off at just under 8-1, was fourth at every call, raced three wide for much of the race and just didn’t have the needed rally. Still, it was a good race after breaking from post position ten.

So here are the final results of the race. . .

1 Conveyance
2 Dublin
3 Cardiff Giant
4 Mission Impazible
5 Crider
6 Domonation
7 Pleasant Storm
8 Cool Bullet
9 Dryfly
10 Kitty’s Turn

. . . versus my selections.

1 Dublin
2 Dryfly
3 Pleasant Storm
4 Convenyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 Domonation
7 Cariff Giant
8 Kitty's Turn
9 Cool Bullet
10 Crider


So I believe that this race was a good one and it proves to me that Dublin is the horse I thought he was, while it also showed that Dryfly may not be as good as I had suspected. Finally, congratulations to Conveyance, who succeeded in wiring the race when I though he couldn’t. If he can carry his speed beyond a mile, he could be dangerous at Churchill Downs.

OTHER RACE RESULTS


Of course, the three races that I discussed above were not the only races run last week that could have an influence on the Triple Crown. First off, there was the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The race was won rather easily by the heavy favorite Connemara, who came from last after the first quarter of a mile to secure a length and a quarter victory over 26-1 Haimish Hy. Connemara, coming off of a second place finish in the California Derby, rebounded from that race to once again prove that he should be watched on the way to the Triple Crown. 10-1 Posse Power came in third, with Fog Alert coming home fourth. Finishing fifth was the 3-1 California Derby winner Ranger Heartley, who set the pace for much of the race before tiring in the drive. Still, he was only beaten by three and a quarter lengths. 4-1 Thomas Baines, third behind Ranger Heartley and Connemara in the California Derby, came home sixth. Very Fair, Bert’ N the Group, and Our Minesweeper trailed the field.

The second race of note was the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth. The winner was D’ Funnybone, who sat third for the first half mile before taking the lead to win by a length over second choice A Little Warm. 12-1 Ibboyee rallied to grab third, while Hear Ye Hear Ye, at 35-1, ended up in fourth after dueling for the lead. City Trooper, who stumbled at the start, came from last after a half mile to finish fifth at odds of 7-1. Wildcat Frankie, perhaps a bit tired after his hard fought allowance win only two weeks prior to the Hutcheson, set the pace for a half mile and faded to end up sixth at 4-1. Sum Champ never really threatened at 50-1. Radiohead scratched. D’ Funnybone, who looks like he could become an excellent sprinter, doesn’t exactly look like a Triple Crown horse, but you never know. A Little Warm presented a nice rally for second, but really never threatened the winner.

The third race that could influence the outcome of the Triple Crown was the Jim’s Orbit Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park in Texas. The winner was Coyote Legend, who ran a big race as the heavy favorite to win by eight and a half lengths. Finishing second was Big Texas Daddy, who also made a winning rally but just couldn’t go with Coyote Legend. The final time was nothing to rave about, being almost two seconds slower than the Southwest Stakes, but he did close his final eighth of a mile faster than Conveyance did while being virtually unchallenged. So Coyote Legend is definitely one to watch.

The fourth race of interest was the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise in Arizona. Dixie Commander emerged victorious in that race, defeating Indian Firewater. Dixie Commander seems to have a nice late run, and I would not really be surprised if he ran in the rich Sunland Derby in late March. Should he win, he could sneak into the Kentucky Derby a virtual unknown and surprise everyone. We’ll see what happens.

The fifth race of note was a nine furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 21st. The heavy favorite was Colizeo, but he stumbled badly at the start. Still, he managed to race up on the lead for three quarters of a mile before he faded to finish fourth. The winner was Fly Down, a Nick Zito trained son of Mineshaft. He raced last for the first half mile before launching a three wide bid, just getting up to defeat First Dude. Both horses were sent off at just lower than 5-1. Thunder Perfect, who was the slight second choice, raced evenly to come in third. Last in the field of five was 10-1 Lonesome Street, who raced in third for a half mile before giving way. He ended up nearly forty-three lengths behind the fourth place finisher, and almost fifty behind the winner. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with him.

The sixth race probably won’t affect the Triple Crown, but is still worth mentioning. The Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds, for three year old fillies, was won by Jody Slew, who just got up to beat Quiet Temper by a head. Devil May Care raced close up before fading. Chances are that none of the fillies will even start in a Triple Crown race, but they are still worth watching. 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra wasn’t even nominated to the Triple Crown at this point last year, and she came away with a victory in the Preakness Stakes.

Then of course there was a seven furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. I was desperately hoping that Afleet Express would prove to everyone that he is a top class horse, but he ended up fifth, beaten four lengths by victorious Soaring Empire. And he wasn’t even closing. I’m positive that he will get better with more distance, but today was quite disappointing.

Although I didn’t discuss this race on my last post, it’s worth mentioning that last year’s Sanford Stakes winner Backtalk made a successful return to the races on Friday, winning the one mile Sportsman's Paradise Stakes at Delta Downs by a half length as the favorite. It was only a four horse field, but he had to come five wide to snag the victory. It was a good effort, and I would not be surprised if he makes it to one of the Triple Crown races. I can see him running well in the Kentucky Derby at impressive odds.

Last but not least, on my last post I mentioned that a horse named Gothic’s Peak would be running in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park. Unfortunately, he scratched. However, it couldn’t have been anything too serious because he is entered in another maiden race at Gulfstream Park this Saturday. Maybe everything will go right this time.

Now, I shall discuss what races will be run this Saturday, beginning with the. . .

SHAM STAKES (gr. III, Santa Anita Park, Race 8, January 27th)
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)


This is perhaps the most interesting race of the weekend, as it drew several promising colts who intend to prove that they are of Triple Crown caliber.

First off, there is The Program, a son of Harlan’s Holiday. The colt is coming off of a fine allowance victory over Indian Firewater, who in his next start finished second in the Turf Paradise Derby.

The Program, who is trained by Bob Baffert, should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. He will carry co-high weight of 118 pounds and will be ridden by Martin Garcia. He will start from post one.

But he won’t be alone, and the extremely promising Nextdoorneighbor figures to make him earn it. The son of Lido Palace comes into the Sham off of an unbelievable six furlong workout on January 15th. The colt was timed going the distance in 1:10 3/5 handily. He has already shown that he can go two turns, breaking his maiden on the third attempt going a mile and a sixteenth by four lengths in 1:43 4/5. I would not be surprise if he won the race. Still, he will have to break from post ten, and there is always the possibility that he could be caught wide going into the first turn. But perhaps he is talented enough to overcome it. He will carry 116 pounds, two less than The Program, and will be ridden by Mike Smith.

But Kettle River should also make his presence felt. The son of Congaree comes off of a win in a mile and a sixteenth allowance race in which he came from behind to score a three quarters of a length victory with The Program finishing third. He will carry the top weight of 118 pounds, along with The Program, and will be ridden by Brice Blanc. He has turned in some excellent workouts and should be coming late. He will break from post two.

Starting from post three will be Straightomidnight, who has already made eleven starts. He has only had one workout during the past sixty days, but it was a good one. He might be able to get a piece of the money.

In post four is Outlaw Man, who I can’t help but pull for. A short while back, I randomly selected him from the 366 horses nominated to the Triple Crown. The plan was that I would follow the selected horse wherever he went. I figured that the odds of him turning up anywhere along the Triple Crown Trail were fairly small, so imagine my surprise when I learned that he has been entered in a grade III prep race at Santa Anita! I was thrilled, and I was even more thrilled when I realized that he might actually have a chance at winning today. He comes into the Sham off of a nose victory in a nine furlong turf race on January 27th. Maybe he will get a piece of the money, and perhaps he could even pull off the upset and win the race. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Garrett Gomez, who should be able to get the most out of him.

Moving on, there is Setsuko, who has been very consistent so far. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is trained by Richard Mandella and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He has turned in some better than average workouts and may be able to get a piece of the money.

Finally, we come down to Wolf Tail, Viva Macho, El Mirage King, an Alphie’s Bet. All will carry 116 pounds, and all have had average workouts. Everyone one seems capable of finishing on the board, but I also feel that El Mirage King could be in the mix. He comes into the race off of a win in a turf race, he will be ridden by Tyler Baze, and his workouts have been very good, the last one in particular. I can see him running an excellent race, and maybe even winning.

So here are my selections. . .

1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Wolf Tail
8 Alphie’s Bet
9 Straightomidnight
10 Viva Macho


It was very tough deciding who to put on top, but I finally chose Nextdoorneighbor because his workouts have been amazing and he has shown some great talent so far. The Program should run a nice race, and the finish should be very close. Kettle River has beaten The Program before, but I don't think this is his day. Outlaw Man should be making up some ground in the stretch, while El Mirage King should run a good race as well. As I am running out of time, I won't discuss the race any further, but my final thought is that I may have Setsuko too low, and that he is probably capable of winning the race. We'll see what happens.

JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL STAKES (Turfway Park, Race 11, February 27th)
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)


This is a race that I have been eagerly anticipating. As I had been hoping, Kera’s Kitten is entered to run. The winner of the WEBN Stakes last month should make his presence felt, and I feel that he has a good shot at winning, and possibly becoming the favorite for next month’s Lane’s End Stakes. Still, seven horses have turned out to challenge him, and I think that several of them have the potential to upset him.

First off, there is Lucky Chuck, whose workouts have been phenomenal. I would not be surprised at all if he won impressively. He is one to watch . . .very closely.

In the Paint is another horse that has a good shot at winning. The son of Tiznow comes off of a win in a maiden race at this track, and has had some fairly nice workouts to back him up. Not quite the level of workouts that Lucky Chuck has turned in, but he could at least grab some of the money.

Then there is Codoy, who is expected to be one of the favorites. The son of Bernstein placed in a graded stakes race last year, but has only a maiden win to his credit. His workouts have not been very impressive. Still, his one win did come at this track, so it’s possible that he just prefers this track to others.

Slewzoom, second to Kera’s Kitten in the WEBN Stakes, is back for another try. He has not had very impressive workouts, but they have been on dirt, and it’s possible that he is a better horse on the synthetic track at Turfway Park.

Then there is Vow to Wager, a son of Broken Vow. He had made three unplaced starts prior to winning impressively in a one mile maiden race at this track last month. If he continues to improve, he could be in the mix.

Finally, this brings us to Pathoki and Fish. Pathoki comes off of an allowance optional claiming race two weeks ago, while Fish comes into the race off of a poor showing in the WEBN Stakes. Fish has not had very good workouts, but they have been at Keeneland, and Keeneland has always had an unusual track surface, be it dirt or synthetics. Pathoki’s workouts haven’t been that bad, but they have been on dirt. We’ll see how he performs tomorrow.

So here are my selections for the race. . .

1 Kera’s Kitten
2 Lucky Chuck
3 Vow to Wager
4 In the Paint
5 Codoy
6 Slewzoom
7 Pathoki
8 Fish


Of course, it’s hard to say just how good Kera’s Kitten is, just as it’s hard to gauge Vow to Wager. I feel confident that Lucky Chuck is ready to run a big one, but I don’t think that Codoy is going to get it done today. He might, but I just don’t think so. This should be a good race, and I would not be surprised if the winner is the favorite for next month’s Lane’s End Stakes. I have the feeling that one of the horses entered here will end up in one of the Triple Crown races.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH


Also on Saturday is the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park in New Mexico. Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird finished second in this race last year, so it’s possible that a runner from this race could at least end up in one of the Triple Crown races.

The race is headlined by Tango Tango, who came home last of five in the February 13th Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He will only receive a two week gap between races, which seems a little bit fast. He’ll have eight rivals facing him, including Guiltbyassociation, who has only one win from five starts, and Chuchuluco, who won the six furlong Pepsi Cola Handicap last time out. I feel that the race is going to be very close, but I’m not sure that Tango Tango is capable of winning the race. He should be there at the finish, but perhaps not in front. We’ll see what happens.

Next up is an allowance race at Gulfstream Park, the third race on Saturday. The one mile race has drawn the Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris, who comes off of a poor effort behind Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes last month. Also in the field is the promising General Maximus, who is undefeated in two starts sprinting. The question is: Can he get the one mile distance? It’s hard to say.

Then there is Radiohead, who scratched last week’s Hutcheson Stakes because of reasons I do not know. He should be in the mix.

Thomas Got Even could also have a shot at stealing the race. Gesu, Call Shot, and Quick Ride complete the field.

Of course, the second race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday should be watched as well. The morning line favorite in this one mile maiden special weight is Game On Dude, but I would not be surprised if Our Dark Knight was sent off as the favorite. Ridden by Julian Leparoux and trained by Nick Zito, I can see this horse winning big here and running in the Wood Memorial as a prep for the Kentucky Derby. Somehow, I think that Our Dark Knight may be something special. Still, he has to overcome post position nine, but at least he has a long run to the first turn. His workouts have been great.

Very little time left before I need to post this, so although I meant to discuss the following race in detail, I'm afraid I won't be able to. The race is the Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The eighth race on Saturday's card, the race is strictly for fillies, but who knows? One of them might end up in a Triple Crown race!

Anyway, the race drew eight entries, and they look pretty evenly matched. Bickersons, who comes off of a seven length win in last month's Forward Gal Stakes, should run a good race, but there is still the question of distance, can she get the extra furlong? We'll find out.

Then there is Christine Daae, who will carry only 116 pounds. She has had some great workouts and comes off of a nine length win in a seven furlong maiden race last month. The final time was 1:21 3/5, an incredibly fast time. She will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.

Sassy Image, who I believe is a very special filly, has not been received the way I thought she would be. If I recall correctly, she is the third choice on the morning line odds. I feel that her wins in the Golden Rod and the Pocahontas Stakes were excellent, and she has already proven herself in a one turn mile race. I think that she has an excellent shot at winning.

But don't forget Amen Hallelujah, who won the Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita Park last month before shipping to Florida for this race. She has turned in some excellent workouts since her arrival.

So it should be a great race. Moving on, there is the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. Turbo Speed and Turf Melody should be able to run good races. However, Turf Melody's workouts have been very slow, but perhaps Fair Hills, where he has been training, is a slow track. Turbo Speed's workouts have been better, but still not great.

Then there is the Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklwan Park. Backwater Blues comes into the race off of a win at Oaklawn Park last month. His workouts haven't been too bad. I also have a feeling that the colt Don't Put It Back is sitting on a big one, carrying only 115 pounds. Can't wait to see what happens.

Finally, Richiegirlgonewild, who's last race was a ninth place finish behind Bickersons in the Forward Gal, is entered to run in a five furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 28th. Her workouts have been quite good lately. She should run a good one.

And last but not least, here is a list of horses who have worked out over the past several days.

February 22nd

Fast Alex breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5 at Fair Grounds, the fastest of 81 workouts at that distance.
Concord Point worked six furlongs in 1:13 2/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Lookin at Lucky worked six furlongs in 1:15 2/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.

February 23rd

Backwater Blues breezed four furlongs in :49 flat at Oaklawn Park.
Amen Hallelujah breezed four furlongs in :48 flat at Gulfstream Park.
Gothic's Peak breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Crisp worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Hollywood Park.

February 24th

Homeboykris breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
She Be Wild breezed five furlongs in 1:01 flat at Gulfstream Park.
American Lion worked four furlongs in :48 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Bulls and Bears breezed six furlongs in 1:15 4/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Evening Jewel worked five furlongs in 1:02 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Macias worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.

February 25th

Colonel Mustard worked four furlongs in :49 3/5 handily at Hollywood Park.

February 26th

Schoolyard Dreams breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Uptowncharlybrown breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat at Tampa Bay Downs.
Windy City Cat breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Nordic Truce breezed five furlongs in 1:02 4/5 at Payson Park Training Center.
Sidney's Candy worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Caracortado worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.

February 27th

Day of Destiny worked five furlongs in 1:01 flat handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Best Actor worked five furlongs in :59 3/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Noble's Promise worked five furlongs in :59 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Dave in Dixie worked five furlongs in :59 3/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Outquest breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 at Laurel Park.
Bim Bam worked four furlongs in :48 3/5 handily at Calder Race Course.
Turf Melody breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat at Fair Hill.

-Keelerman

THE TWENTY, as of February 24th, 2010

1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
He proved to me in the Southwest Stakes that he is back full force, running a grand race to finish second. I'm confident that he will improve with more time and distance. Isn't about time for Lukas to get his record fourteenth victory in a Triple Crown race?
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He's been training nicely and should have no trouble running a good race in the San Felipe. He'll only have two preps in him prior to the Kentucky Derby, but then so did Big Brown and Mine That Bird. As long as he doesn't get in the same kind of trouble Buddy's Saint did, he should be ready.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
Turns out that he skipped the Fountain of Youth for a possible start in the Gotham on March 6th or the Rebel on March 13th. He'll be a force to deal with in either location, but he still needs to prove he can go a mile and a quarter. His pedigree says he can, but then, so did Charitable Man's last year.
4 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
He's going to be one to reckon with in California, and it's possible that he's good enough to dethrone Lookin at Lucky. I think the last California bred to win the Kentucky Derby was Morvich in 1922. But Big Brown was the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby off of three starts since Regret in 1915, so I'm not worried.
5. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
His win in the Fountain of Youth proved that he has Triple Crown potential. If he should win the Florida Derby or a similar race, I may have to put him at the top of the list. His pedigree is spectacular.
6. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
I really can't see him getting a mile and a quarter at this time, but who knows how good he is? He'll get a chance to take on a mile and an eighth prior to the Triple Crown, so we should have a better idea of how far he wants to go soon.
7. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
I'm still trying to figure out where he will appear next. To me, he looks like the type of colt who will come from the clouds to spoil the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. He could show up in the Rebel, or even the Gotham, but I think that the Tampa Bay Derby is the most likely target.
8. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
The Fountain of Youth was really disappointing, not so much because he lost the race, but more because he got absolutely nothing out of the race. If he bounces back okay, it's still possible that he could make the Tampa Bay Derby, and then fly to New York for the Wood Memorial.
9. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
He really didn't run all that bad in the Risen Star. After they went a half mile in 48 3/5, I knew he was cooked. He still managed to grab sixth, and he was only beaten 4 1/4 lengths for all the money. I haven't given up on him yet.
10 DAVE IN DIXIE
He really made a good run in the Robert B. Lewis, coming from behind after having not started since last October. He should only improve in his next race, and should be really coming with more distance.
11. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I still think that she is a very good filly and is capable of taking on colts in the Triple Crown. Her run in the Las Virgenes was better than it looked. The Santa Anita Oaks is next, so we'll get to see at a slightly longer distance soon.
12. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
Proved once again that he is in the mix for the Triple Crown with his fine victory in the El Camino Real Derby. I still wonder whether he is a top class colt, but everything seems to say that he is. I would love to see him race on dirt, but I don't think it will happen until the Kentucky Derby, should he get there.
13. ODYSSEUS
I was very impressed by his win down at Tampa Bay Downs, a fifteen length victory. It's possible that he could turn up again soon and become a major Triple Crown contender. I like his name, goes good with Assault, Whirlaway, Affirmed, Secretariat, War Admiral, etc.
14. AFLEET EXPRESS Afleet Alex - Expanse, by Distant View James A. Jerkens
He didn't start in the Fountain of Youth, but he has found an allowance race at Gulfstream Park to try. I'm still positive that he is a high class colt who is capable of winning the Florida Derby and possibly even taking a Triple Crown race. I really like his name.
15. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
It sounds as though the Santa Anita Derby is a possible target. He's going to have to show more if he is going to remain a Triple Crown contender.
16. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN
I still think that he is capable of running with the best of them, and that he can win the Tampa Bay Derby in March. Musket Man disappointed in last year's Sam F. Davis, but rebounded to take the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby. Don't give up on him yet.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
He has already shown that he has guts, but the question is still whether he can get the longer distances. He could show up for the Gotham, which would be terrific. It's possible that he could like dirt more than synthetics, just as I Want Revenge did last year. We'll see what he does next.
18. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
He really ran a great race in the Southwest Stakes, setting a solid pace the entire race and digging in to hold off Dublin. Still, I don't think that he wants to go a mile and a quarter.
19. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Unfortunately, he had the perfect trip in the Fountain of Youth and proved that he just couldn't do it. I'm afraid that the stamina to get the Triple Crown distances just isn't in him. He has the potential to keep improving, but I just don't think he can do it.
20. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet
He ran a good race to finish fourth in the Risen Star, but he just couldn't get up in time. I find it interesting that the three horses who beat him sat one two three throughout the entire race, which says something about how slow the pace was. He should improve with more ground and more pace to chase.

NOTABLE OTHER HORSES

AFLEET AGAIN The Gotham would be great. Wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown.
AIKENITE Ran a nice race in the Fountain of Youth, but he was no match for Eskendereya.
A LITTLE WARM Didn't quite get there in the Hutcheson, probably a sprinter.
AMERICAN LION Can he get the distance?
BACKTALK Set to go at Delta Downs.
CONCORD POINT Don't count him out yet.
COYOTE LEGEND Jim's Orbit was visually impressive. He could surprise everyone and make the Derby.
D’FUNNYBONE Nice win in the Hutcheson, but he seems to be a sprinter.
DISCREETLY MINE Nice win in the Risen Star, but was all out after slow fractions.
DIXIE COMMANDER Nice win in the Turf Paradise Derby.
DOUBLES PARTNER One to watch after beating Lentenor following a bad trip.
DRYFLY Just plain faded in the Southwest Stakes.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY Perhaps he'll recover in time for the Gotham.
FLY BY PHIL I'm not sure where he is right now.
GENERAL MAXIMUS He has got the speed, but can he carry it a distance?
HOMEBOYKRIS Seems to be a sprinter.
HOTEP Didn't fire the way I thought he would in the Risen Star.
KERA’S KITTEN I can see this colt winning the Lane's End.
LENTENOR Couldn't quite win his allowance race, but I don't think he saw the winner coming. With more experience?!?
LETSGETITONMON Didn't fire in the Risen Star.
LAUS DEO Would not be surprised to see him in the Gotham.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME I'm just wondering where he'll show up next.
MAXIMUS RULER He looks like a miler. But who knows?
PULSION Didn'ts fire in the Fountain of Youth.
SASSY IMAGE Wasn't nominated to Triple Crown.
SIDNEY'S CANDY Possible for the Gotham.
STAY PUT Actually didn't run that badly in the Risen Star. One to watch next time out.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Ran a nice race in the Risen Star, but needs more experience.
THE PROGRAM Will he tackle Lookin at Lucky and Caracortado in the San Felipe?
TIZ CHROME He appears to be a sprinter, but he'll get another shot at distance in the Gotham.
VALE OF YORK He may run in a mile and three sixteenths race at Meydan this March.
WILDCAT FRANKIE Ran a poor race in the Hutcheson Stakes.

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 19th, 2010

Well, the weekend was good and bad for the Triple Crown. Several contenders took the next step forward, and several contenders proved that they were not all that they were supposed to be. And one set of ten failed to prove anything at all, as the Southwest Stakes was postponed due to ice. So Dublin, Conveyance, Dryfly, and others will have to wait until the 20th. Because of this, I will be reposting my selections for the Southwest Stakes today. So get ready, this is a long post covering everything that happened last week and everything that will happen this week.

WRAPPING UP LAST WEEK:

SAN VINCENTE (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 15th
7 Furlongs (Synthetic)

This race ended about how I thought it would, but the running of the race was far from what I had imagined. My selection, Sidney's Candy, won the race is good fashion. I had expected him to sit third early on, but he surprised me by taking the early lead and never losing it, winning by an impressive 4 1/4 lengths. Tiny Woods, whom I had selected to be the runner up, did indeed finish second, but instead of setting the pace, he chased it throughout. Classical Slew made a mild rally from mid pack to snag third, with Runaway Bandido coming from last at the half mile pole to finish fourth. Quiet Invader raced mid pack throughtout, but couldn't sustain his run, while Gilligan and Raging Wit failed to threaten.

So, here are the actual results. . .

1 Sidney's Candy
2 Tiny Woods
3 Classical Slew
4 Runaway Bandido
5 Quiet Invader
6 Gilligan
7 Raging Wit

. . . versus my selections.

1 Sidney's Candy
2 Tiny Woods
3 Gilligan
4 Quiet Invader
5 Classical Slew
6 Runaway Bandido
7 Raging Wit

So, I correctly selected the exacta, but I was off after that. (Although I did pick Raging Wit to finish last!) This race probably won't send out a Triple Crown caliber horse, but I would not be surprised to see Sidney's Candy make it to the Kentucky Derby. If he does, and assuming Rule and Super Saver get there as well, it's going to be one battle for the lead. Getting back to the San Vicente, Tiny Woods ran a good race, but it just wasn't good enough. Quiet Invader seemed to be just a bit outclassed. Gilligan didn't run the race I thought he would, while Runaway Bandido ran better than I expected. So, Sidney's Candy will be one to watch along the California trail, while it's pretty safe to say that Tiny Woods won't be stretching out much farther than this.

So moving on, this brings us to the. . .

SAM F. DAVIS STAKES ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10, February 12th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)

This race did not turn out the way I thought it would at all. My thought on this one was that Rule wouldn't be able to quite get the distance against this company, while Uptowncharlybrown would romp to an easy win. In reality, it was Rule who wired the field impressively, with Schoolyard Dreams coming home second over Uptowncharlybrown. African Moon scratched.
Here are the actual results. . .

1 Rule
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Silver Craft
5 Middle of the Nite
6 Tristen's Mambo

. . . and here are my selections from last week.

1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Rule
3 Tristen's Mambo
4 Schoolyard Dreams
6 Middle of the Nite
7 Silver Craft

So as you can see, I was wrong about Rule, who proved he is one to be reckoned with. Wiring the field and winning by three lengths is nothing to sneeze at. Still, he needs to show that he can sit off the lead too, not because I'm against front runners, but because it's hard to get into a good position in a race like the Kentucky Derby where there are twenty horses stumbling over each other in their attempts to find the rail. So, it would be nice to see Rule content in behind horses in a future race. Perhaps if he tries the Florida Derby about a month from now, we'll see him rate off of the lead. But getting back to the Sam F. Davis. . .

Schoolyard Dreams ran a nice race to finish second, a half length in front of Uptowncharlybrown after racing close to the pace throughout. Uptowncharlybrown ran a decent race, but the nice thing was that he was only really starting to get rolling at the finish, and he looked like he wanted more ground. If he gets to the Triple Crown, he'll have lots of it, and a little more pace up front as well.

Silver Craft ran much better than I expected him to, while Middle of the Nite ran the race I thought he would. I was completely wrong about Tristen's Mambo, who came in last of the six.

The results of this race helped make the Triple Crown Trail much clearer, as it is now very obvious that Rule is a horse to watch very, very closely, while Uptowncharlybrown should be given a second chance at a race with a little more distance. Still, when I think about Rule, I can't help but think back to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, where favored Bellamy Road chased the insane fractions of Spanish Chestnut and faded to finish seventh. The winner, Giacomo, came from eighteenth, while the runner up, Closing Argument, sat nearly six lengths off of the lead before making his run. Third place finisher Afleet Alex came from eleventh. So, when there is a lot of speed in the Kentucky Derby, it is typically the horses who come from way back who do the best. Which is why Uptowncharlybrown is still one to watch. If he was to get the fractions Giacomo got in his Derby, it would be really hard to catch him. So, both Rule and Uptowncharlybrown are ones to watch very closely, while Schoolyard Dreams should be watched to some extent.

Moving on to the next race, I shall wrap up the. . .

LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)


This was a really great race, with a terrific photo finish. It was one of those races where you can't tell who won even in the slow motion replays. This was especially fun for me because I was actually able to watch it, thanks to California Racing's great web site. And best of all, Blind Luck won.

So here are the results. . .

1 Blind Luck
2 Evening Jewel
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Summer Games

. . . versus my selections.

1 Blind Luck
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Games

As it turned out, the horse I had picked to run second, La Nez, scratched from the race. I don't know any of the details, but hopefully she's alright. The race unfolded much like I expected it to, with Blind Luck dropping back to last while the other four entries raced fairly close together up front. Still, the pace was a slow one, and as they moved into the final turn with Blind Luck still last, I realized that it would take a Zenyatta-like move to get Blind Luck home in front. I was worried.

But not for long.

Down the homestretch they came, with Evening Jewel and Switch battling for the lead, Blind Luck slowly closing ground on the outside but it appeared that she was moving too slowly. Finally, Evening Jewel took a short lead from Switch, but Blind Luck poured it on in the shadow of the wire to win by a very short nose, with Evening Jewel an excellent second, with Switch third, Crisp fourth, and Summer Games last. After the finish, Switch dumped her rider, but both were okay.

So Blind Luck really ran a great race, even if it wasn't as impressive as I had hoped. This really proves to me that she is capable of taking on colts in the Santa Anita Derby, and perhaps even in one of the Triple Crown races, seeing that she would be getting a faster pace in any of them. Blind Luck could quite possibly be one of the best fillies in some time. Whether she is on the same level as Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, or Ouija Board is unknown. But hopefully she will have a chance to show us just how good she really is.

So now this brings us to the. . .

ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)

This was definitely the most pleasing race of the week, and without a doubt the most influential. The race was supposed to be a battle between Tiz Chrome and American Lion, both of who had the credentials to become top class Triple Crown horses.
For much of the race, it looked as though that battle would occur. Tiz Chrome set the early pace with American Lion glued to his outside, pushing him all the way. Caracortado sat right behind them, patiently biding his time, waiting for the right moment to pounce on the two runaway leaders. Turning for him, he made his move on the outside, powering past the two tiring Tiznow's. From that point on, the race was his. Dave in Dixie, who hadn't raced since October, made a huge rally to grab second from American Lion, with Tiz Chrome fading to finish fourth. Tango Tango came home last. And best of all, Caracortado keeps his undefeated streak alive. He is now five for five. Will he become the second horse to win the Triple Crown undefeated? Many have tried, but only Seattle Slew was able to do it.

So, here are the actual results. . .

1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Tango Tango

. . . versus my selections.

1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Tango Tango

So if Dave in Dixie hadn't nipped American Lion for second, I would have had the race in order, completely. However, it was not to be. Still, I greatly enjoyed seeing Caracortado begin to get respect, and he has now launched himself into the upper parts of the Triple Crown picture. At the very least, Lookin at Lucky will have someone to tangle with out in California.

OTHER RACE RESULTS

Along with the stakes races mentioned above, there were several less important races run over the past few days which may or may not have an influence on this year's Triple Crown. I'll begin with the OBS Championship (Colts and Geldings Division) Stakes, run on the 15th. As I expected, Thank U Philippe was possibly still a bit tired from his run in the Holy Bull, and ended up fifth after making a brief rally. I expect him to improve in his next race.

The second race that warrants discussion is a five furlong allowance race on the turf, run on the 17th. Family Holiday and Peace at Dawn were the two entries I mentioned. Peace at Dawn came three wide and put in a mild rally to finish fourth, but Family Holiday came through with the win, going wire-to-wire as the second choice at 4-1. It was very interesting to find him in the race, as he was coming off a mile and an eighth allowance race on the dirt. But perhaps he'll return to the dirt soon.

The third race was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park, where Letenor was the heavy favorite, and I thought he deserved it to be too. But he was nabbed at the wire by Doubles Partner. Still, it was a solid effort, and Letenor should improve off of that race.

Race number four was a claiming race at Laurel Park. As I expected, Outquest ran a poor race, coming seven wide into the stretch and ended up ninth, beaten seven lengths. I have now officially removed him from my "Horses to Watch" list.

Race number five was an allowance optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs, run on the 17th. The winner was Odysseus, who was also the heavy favorite. The race was amazing, as he sat behind the leader in the early going and then blew past him, drawing off at will to win by fifteen lengths. Incredible. All of a sudden, I think it's possible that he is Triple Crown caliber and could make it into the Kentucky Derby. He is definitely one to watch now.

Race number six was the Baffle Stakes, an about six and a half furlongs turf race down the chute at Santa Anita Park. As was expected, the Bob Baffert trained Macias won by two and a half lengths as the heavy favorite. I imagine that he will stick to turf races from now on.

And finally, race number seven was the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park. I didn't discuss it last week, but I did know that Decelerator, runner up to Sassy Image in both the grade II Golden Rod and the grade III Pocahontas, was running. She ran an excellent race, waiting on the rail until they moved into the final turn, where she snuck through on the inside to take the lead and never give it back, winning by one length. She was ridden by Terry Thompson and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. I just thought I would mention it because Rachel Alexandra won this race last year in her seasonal bow. . .

And so now that I have recapped everything that happened over the last week, now it's time to discuss what might happen this week. I'll begin by reposting what I posted last week about the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

SOUTHWEST STAKES (gr. III) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 10, February 20th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)

Momentum is picking up along the Triple Crown Trail, with several great preps on the 13th, and the 2010 debut of Buddy's Saint on the 20th. But the following race could end up being more important than any of them, as it drew a much deeper field than I thought it would.

The race drew ten entires, and all have great potential and a shot at winning the race, but perhaps none will be more thoroughly scrutinized as last year's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Dublin, a son of Afleet Alex.

Dublin had some problems last year. After winning the Hopeful, he turned in poor efforts in the grade I Champagne Stakes and the grade III Iroquis Stakes. As it turns out, he was suffering from an entrapped epiglottis, which was corrected at the end of last year. He now looks ready for a huge effort, based off of his workouts and the words of his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, who feels this horse could be something really, really special. Dublin will be ridden for the first time by Terry Thompson, and will carry 117 pounds.

Of, course, Dublin will have plenty of competition, as this is probably the deepest field of three year olds I have seen assembled this year. Dryfly, a son of Jump Start, won the Smarty Jones Stakes last month at this track and at this distance and should turn in a nice race. He will be ridden once again by Calvin Borel, who won the Kentucky Derby last year with 50-1 Mine That Bird and the Preakness Stakes with Rachel Alexandra. He also has a win in the 2007 Kentucky Derby with Street Sense. So, Calvin Borel definitely knows Churchill Downs, which is always a good thing. Dryfly will carry 122 pounds, which is five more than Dublin will carry, and a pretty large disadvantage.

Also having a huge shot at stealing the win is Conveyance, winner of the San Rafael Stakes last month at Santa Anita. The son of Indian Charlie is expected to be on or near the lead, and has the speed to wire the race. But Dryfly runs the same way, and will probably be breathing down his neck the entire way. Only time will tell who will finish in front of the other. Conveyance will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and carry 122 pounds. He will also be making his first start on dirt.

Cardiff Giant and Domonation have also shipped out from California. In his last race, Cardiff Giant finished second in the San Rafael, 1 3/4 lengths behind Conveyance. Domonation finished third in that same race, less than one length behind Cardiff Giant. Neither of them have never raced on dirt before.

Mission Impazible, ridden by John Velazquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, could also be in the mix. Carrying only 115 pounds, he comes off of a runner up performance in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 9th. Still, he was only beaten by a head on a sloppy track, so it's possible that he just doesn't like mud. His workouts have been nothing spectacular, but it's possible that he wasn't really being pushed.

The brings us to Cool Bullet, who will be ridden by B. Hernandez. Carrying 117 pounds, he comes into the race off of a fourth place finish in the LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds. His workouts have been rather slow. I suspect that Fair Grounds may be a little slow right now, but it's still something to think about.

Now we move on to Pleasant Storm, who will be ridden by L. McNeil. Carrying 117 pounds, he comes off of a second place finish to Dryfly in the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. Although he has only had one workout since that race, it was a good one, breezing six furlongs in 1:13 1/5. I have seen much faster, but I think that Oaklawn Park is very, very slow right now, so it's probably a much better workout than it appears to be.

Finally, this brings us to Kitty's Turn and Crider. Both will carry 115 pounds, the former being ridden by Robby Albarado and the latter by L. Quinonez. Crider is trained by Steve Asmussen, who definitely knows what he is doing, while Kitty's Turn is trained by G. Thomas. The latter finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Dryfly and Pleasant Storm, while Crider was fourth in that same race. Both are unknowns, but could surprise everyone. Still, I don't think they are quite on the same level as the rest of the field.

Son, my final selections for the Southwest Stakes are. . .

1 Dublin
2 Dryfly
3 Pleasant Storm
4 Convenyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 Domonation
7 Cariff Giant
8 Kitty's Turn
9 Cool Bullet
10 Crider

Of course, this race is very hard to figure out. So much class, and so evenly matched. I feel confident that Dublin is the best horse in the race, but I'm not sure that I have Dryfly in the right place. He could be any kind of horse. I think that having Calvin Borel as a jockey will help.

I'm also not sure that Pleasant Storm is in the right spot. He certainly has good credentials, but he is still a bit of an unknown. I have the feeling that Conveyance isn't going to like Oaklawn as well as he likes Santa Anita, but I could be wrong. Mission Impazible hasn't really impressed me so far, but he could run a huge race. Domonation could run a big one under 115 pounds, but I doubt it. Cariff Giant, Kitty's Turn, Cool Bullet, and Crider just don't appear to be good enough. I could be very wrong, but those are my thoughts. I suspect that Conveyance will set the early pace with Dryfly challenging him from the outside. Dublin will race up close, perhaps three to five lengths off of the lead, with Mission Impazible quite close as well. Pleasant Home will race closer to the back of the pack than the front. Turning for home, it should still be Conveyance with a short lead, but Dryfly will collar him inside the three sixteenth pole. Dublin and Pleasant Home will be closing powerfully on the outside, while Mission Impazible will be making a mild rally. Inside the eighth pole, Dublin will take the lead, but Dryfly will find something extra and battle him to the sixteenth pole, where Dublin draws away to win by a length and a half. Pleasant Home's rally will just fall short of Dryfly by about a half length. Conveyance will hold off Mission Impazible for fourth, while Domonation passes tiring horse in the stretch to snag sixth. Those are my final thoughts.

(Just a little update, when the post positions were redrawn, Dublin, instead of starting from gate ten, will actually start from gate three, and Conveyance, instead of getting gate two, will start from number nine. These changes could drastically affect the outcome of the race. And to boot, Conveyance loses Garrett Gomez as his jockey.)

And so now I shall discuss the much anticipated. . .

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES (gr. II) ---- Gulfstream Park, Race 10, February 20th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)

This is going to be, without a doubt, the most influential, most exciting, most important Triple Crown prep race this year. A field of ten was drawn, and if having Buddy's Saint making his three year old debut wasn't enough, we also have Jackson Bend, second in the Holy Bull Stakes of January 23rd, Pulsion, second to Champion 2yo Male Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk last year, and Eskendereya, who comes off of a nice allowance race.

This race could go virtually anywhere. Obviously, Buddy's Saint will be the favored off of his Nashua and Remsen wins last year, the former by twelve lengths and the latter by almost five lengths with Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris and Whirlaway Stakes winner Peppi Knows behind him. He has been working out nicely and should run a very good race. He will carry top weight of 122 pounds and be ridden by Jose Lezcano.

But he won't be alone, and Jackson Bend fully intends to give it everything he's got. The Nick Zito trained runner has put in some incredible workouts, the most recent being a half mile in :47 flat. Really, really sharp. He looks ready to run a spectacular race, and I would not be surprised if he won. In the long run, I think Buddy's Saint will perform better in the Triple Crown, but I think that Jackson Bend could provide a stiff challenge at this distance. He will be ridden by Jeremy Rose, who rode Afleet Alex to his wins in the Preakness and Belmont of 2005. He will carry 120 pounds, two less than Buddy's Saint.

Then there is Pulsion, who will get into the race with only 116 pounds. Ridden by Mike Smith, he will be making his 2010 debut, as well as his first start on dirt. He was scheduled to make his debut on January 31st, but was scratched by the vet. There is still the question of whether or not he is in the same class as Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend, but his closing second to Lookin at Lucky says that he should be able to handle them okay. He has been turning in some spectacular workouts, and he looks ready to turn in an amazing race. If the pace is fast up front, expect him to be flying late.

But then there is also Eskendereya, whose big win last year came in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park. The race was supposed to be on turf, but was rained on to the dirt. He won by seven lengths in the slop. He comes into the race off of a wire-to-wire win in an allowance race on January 7th at Gulfstream Park. He will carry 120 pounds and be ridden by John Velazquez. He is by Giant's Causeway, leading sire of 2009. Giant's Causeway is a good source of stamina, his foals including French Derby/French 2,000 Guineas winner Shamardal, Heatseeker, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap, Red Giant, who holds the world record for a mile and a quarter, Frost Giant, winner of the Suburban Handicap, Maids Causeway, winner of the Coronation Stakes, Man of Iron, winner of the Breeders' Cup Marathon at a mile and three quarters, and Noble Causeway, runner up to Afleet Alex in the 2005 Belmont Stakes. So, Eskendereya should be able to stretch out okay. So now the only question is can Eskendereya step up to this level of competition? We'll find out soon.

The next competitors are Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, one two finishers in a January 18th nine furlong allowance race at this track. Both could run exceptional races while carrying only 116 pounds each. Pleasant Prince will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, winner of the 2009 Eclipse award for outstanding jockey.

Now this brings us to Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. After a good but not great two year old season during which he was twice grade I placed and fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he returned for the Holy Bull Stakes, where he uncharacteristically chased the early pace and faded. He should be able to rebound off of that effort, but it must be remembered that Thank U Philippe, coming out of the speed dual in the Holy Bull, threw in a sub par effort in the OBS Championship (Colts and Geldings Division) Stakes. Just something to remember.

The next entry is Prince Will I Am, coming off of a late running second to highly respected Drosselmeyer in a nine furlongs allowance race on this same track. Closing from last in that small field as fast as he did makes him one to watch, especially when he's only carrying 116 pounds. He should be closing fast inside the final furlong, and if he actually has a good pace to run at, he could get to the wire first.

Now we move on to Positive Split, who will carry 116 pounds and be ridden by Edgar Prado. He has turned in several good workouts, and could put in a good run.

Last of all is Lost Aptitude, who will be ridden by R. Maragh and carry 118 pounds. His workouts have been decent ones, but not quite on the same level as those turned in by Jackson Bend and Pulsion. The son of Aptitude will likely be on or near the lead, and if he is left alone long enough, just might have enough left to wire the field.

So now I have finished discussing every horse in the race, and now I must make my selections. If I was to go strictly by workouts, I would have to go with Pulsion, whose workouts just keep improving. There is no reason why he won't like the dirt, but the question is can he close off of a slow pace? He is known to come from behind, so it would be nice for him if Jackson Bend and Buddy's Saint would hook up for the early lead, which seems unlikely. Still, I expect the pace of this race to be a solid one, so he should have something to run down. He comes off of a long layoff, but then so does Buddy's Saint. If you were to go with who is primed for a personal best I would have to select Jackson Bend. But when you get down to sheer class alone, Buddy's Saint seems to have the race. The only question is could this race be too short for him? It's possible, but the best can adapt to a less than perfect distance. He will break from post position two, so he shouldn't have any trouble getting to the rail. The run from the starting gate to the first turn in the Fountain of Youth is a very short one, so I would not be surprised to see Ice Box, breaking from post ten, to get hung wide going into that first turn.

So, if I was to select a longshot to win this race, in other words, not Buddy's Saint, Jackson Bend, Eskendereya, and Pulsion, I would go with Prince Will I Am. He has proven that he has a good late kick, he has run at this track at this distance, and should be able to get a good pace to run out. Breaking from gate six, he should have no trouble dropping back and getting to the rail.

Then of course you have Lost Aptitude, who comes off of a runner up finish to Fly By Phil in a nine furlongs turf race at this track. He just failed to wire the field in that race, and he has had nearly two months to recover from his grueling run. He has had three workouts since then, none of them being very impressive. As if that isn't enough, he will also have to break from post nine, which means he's going to have to gun it early if doesn't want to be caught wide. This means that the first quarter mile may be a little faster than you would expect, which means the deep closers like Pulsion and Prince Will I Am could have a shot at closing like rockets. Of course, we don't know where Aikenite will be early on, he could take back or he could gun for it and try to put away everyone early. The latter doesn't seem possible, but the former method may at least secure him a piece of the money.

Ice Box, who will be making his stakes debut, could also have a piece of it, but he will have to break from gate ten. He's going to have to either drop way back or pull off a miracle if he doesn't want to be wide on the first turn. But then again, if he was to turn into a colt like Big Brown, maybe it won't matter, After all, Big Brown took the first turn of the Kentucky Derby something like four wide and came home five lengths in front. Still, that's a rare performance, and Ice Box had better be careful in that first furlong.

Looking over the stats for Pleasant Prince, I see that his workouts have been less than spectacular, although they have been improving. On January 31st, he breezed five furlongs in 1:04 4/5 at Gulfstream Park, the slowest of thirty-nine workouts at that distance that day. A week later he breezes the same distance in 1:01 flat. Another week later he goes out and does it in 1:00 1/5 handily, the second fastest of thirty works at five furlongs. He looks ready to run, but I don't think he's quite in the same class as some of the more highly touted entries.

Positive Split, as I said before, has turned in several good workouts of excellent time, the most recent being a handy five furlongs at Gulfstream Park in 1:00 flat, the fastest of eleven workouts at that distance on that day. Prior to that he had three four furlongs workouts, all of which were under fifty second, the fastest being a handy :47 3/5.

And now for Buddy's Saint. I expect a huge effort from him. His workouts haven't been as fast as Pulsion's, but his trainer says he is on track and ready for the race. He is my current pick for the Kentucky Derby, and I'm dreaming of seeing him become the first colt to win the Triple Crown in thirty-two years. Of course, he still has to get to the Kentucky Derby, which the Fountain of Youth will help him do. Still, as good as he looks for the Triple Crown races, I think this race is just a tad short for him, and that Jackson Bend should be able to provide a stiff challenge for him, based off of his workouts and his past performances. Jackson Bend shouldn't have any trouble getting to the rail today.

So, my final selections are. . .


1 Buddy's Saint
2 Jackson Bend
3 Pulsion
4 Prince Will I Am
5 Eskendereya
6 Aikenite
7 Ice Box
8 Positive Split
9 Pleasant Prince
10 Lost Aptitude

Still, this race could go in just about any direction. As much as I like Buddy's Saint, I have the feeling that Jackson Bend is going to be the better horse at this distance tomorrow. Pulsion will be there if the pace is hot, and if they run a half a mile in under forty-seven seconds, I expect to see him flying in the final furlong, with Prince Will Am I right on his tail. Of course, if the pace is slower than a forty-seven second half, I can't see anybody catching Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend.

So here's how I think the race will unfold. . .

The gates open, and Lost Aptitude charges away first, with Jackson Bend and Ice Box both moving after him. Into the first turn, it is Lost Aptitude with a narrow lead on the outside of Jackson Bend, with Ice Box in the three path. They are less than a length apart. Two lengths behind them sits Buddy's Saint on the rail, with Positive Split on his outside. Pleasant Prince is right on their tails. Then it's another gap of two back to Aikenite on the rail, with Eskendereya on his outside. Finally, Pulsion runs in ninth position with Prince Will I Am last of them all. Moving into the backstretch Jackson Bend shakes off Lost Aptitude, but Ice Box remains stubborn on his outside. Buddy's Saint is beginning to inch up on the inside with Positive Split staying with him. Meanwhile, Aikenite is beginning to move close while Pleasant Prince, Eskendereya, Pulsion, and Prince Will I Am sit chilly at the back of the pack. Into the final turn, Ice Box retreats, leaving Jackson Bend alone on the lead, but only for a moment as Buddy's Saint explodes through on the fence to challenge on the inside. Positive Split, unable to go with Buddy's Saint, begins to drop back as Aikenite moves up to threaten in the three path while Eskendereya, Pulsion, and Prince Will I Am begin their runs. Into the homestretch, it is Buddy's Saint with a half length lead over a stubborn Jackson Bend, with Pulsion and Prince Will I Am bearing down in the middle of the track. Eskendereya is charging as well, but not quite as fast. At the wire, it is Buddy's Saint by a half length, with Jackson Bend second, just holding off Pulsion by another half length, with Prince Will I Am a length behind him in fourth. Eskendereya succeeds in passing a tiring Aikenite for fifth. Ice Box, Positive Split, Pleasant Prince, and Lost Aptitude trail the field.

So, that said, my final thought on the race is that Eskendereya could run a much better race than I think he will. He's bred to get distance, he has a nice win on sloppy dirt, and if the track is sloppy tomorrow, I would not be surprised at all if he won convincingly.


That is all. Now we can move on to the. . .

HUTCHESON STAKES (gr. II) ---- Gulfstream Park, Race 8, February 20th
7 Furlongs (Dirt)

This should be a really good race, even though the winner of a Triple Crown race probably won't come out of it. Still, you never know where the next Triple Crown winner will come from, so the best you can do is pay attention to every race for three year olds leading up to the big three.

The big name here is D' Funnybone, winner of dual grade II races last year, when he won the Saratoga Special and the Futurity Stakes at Saratoga and Belmont Park, respectively. One hundred years ago, winning the Futurity was the biggest accomplishment in horse racing, it was the Kentucky Derby of its day. Well, the race still exists, but winning it means little to nothing anymore. Still, it's worth mentioning that the Futurity is the same seven furlongs distance at the Hutcheson tomorrow, so the race should be just perfect for D' Funnybone.

D' Funnybone, a son of D'wildcat, will carry co-top weight of 122 pounds, along with group II winner in England Radiohead. Both are trained by Richard Dutrow, who trained Big Brown to his Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins two years ago. D' Funnybone has been very impressive in all of his races except for one, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he finished last, beaten something like thirty lengths. This seems to say that he does not care for synthetic tracks, but it also seems to say that he has trouble stretching out, which would mean no Triple Crown for him. Still, it's possible that there was something else bothering him that day, and that synthetics and/or two turns had nothing to do with his poor showing. He'll probably get a chance at two turns later this year, but for now, all he has to do is run well in a one turn seven furlong race and everyone will be happy. He will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.

But he will have solid competition. A Little Warm, a son of Stormin Fever, comes into the race off of a win in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this same track. That race was run on very sloppy conditions, so he should have little trouble handling an off track should one turn up tomorrow. His last workout was excellent, and he seems primed for a good effort. He will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose.

Wildcat Frankie, a son of Wildcat Heir, could also make his presence felt. After finishing second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes, one and a half lengths behind A Little Warm, he returned on February 4th to score a win in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. He doesn't seem to be crying for distance, as he barely held on to the win. He will also be coming back off that trying effort only two weeks later, with no workouts since then, and he will be facing stiffer competition. Still, it's a step down in distance, and if he can handle everything I mentioned, he could easily turn the tables and come away with a solid win.

Then of course, there is Radiohead, whom I mentioned before. As I said, he will carry 122 pounds. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Radiohead was a solid colt over in England last year prior to being shipped into the United States. In his first start in the U.S., he finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf behind fellow European Pounced. This will be his first start since then, and his debut on a dirt track.

Then there is Ibboyee, coming off of a fourth place finish in the January 2nd Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct as the heavy favorite. He will be carrying 120 pounds and will be ridden by John Velazquez.

Starting from gate six if Hear Ye Hear Ye, winner of the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes last November. He will also carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by J. Sanchez.

City Trooper, with 116 pounds on his back, could get a piece of the money. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez. I'm not sure why Gomez is in Florida right now, typically he rides out in California.

Finally, we come to Sum Champ, who will be ridden by C. Velasquez. Carrying only 116 pounds, he could turn in a good effort.

So, my final selections for this race are. . .

1 A Little Warm
2 D' Funnybone
3 Hear Ye Hear Ye
4 Radiohead
5 Wildcat Frankie
6 Ibboyee
7 City Trooper
8 Sum Champ

I was very impressed with A Little Warm's performance in last month Spectacular Bid Stakes. The time was sharp considering how sloppy the track was, and he defeated Wildcat Frankie fairly easily. D' Funnybone will likely be favored, and I would not be surprised to see him win, but I think that at this time A Little Warm is the better horse. This will be especially so if the track turns up sloppy. Still, he will be starting from post eight, and it's possible that he could be caught wide on the turn. If so, he's going to have to run a spectacular race to defeat D' Funnybone. If he does get caught wide, it's entirely possible that D' Funnybone could snatch the win from him. However, D' Funnybone isn't going to be in a much better position than A Little Warm, as the former will be breaking from gate seven. In that case, it's entirely possible that a longshot with the rail could go wire-to-wire. Hopefully, everyone will get a clean trip, but it's possible that this won't happen.

I'm going with a hunch that Hear Ye Hear Ye is going to run a good race and grab third. I suspect that Radiohead just isn't quite good enough, but I could be wrong. Radiohead was an excellent two year old in England, competing with the best of them. Vale of York, who upset last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, came into that race with similar credentials to Radiohead. I suspect that Radiohead will put on a better performance than he did in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, just because he has had some time to adjust to the United States, get used to the different climate, and get a little more practice on the American tracks. So I would not be surprised if the news comes that Radiohead pulled off the win. Moving on to Wildcat Frankie, I think he's coming back just a bit too soon off of his allowance win two weeks ago. I think he's still going to be a bit tired from that one mile effort and just won't run his race. Ibboyee could get a piece of it, but I really don't think so. City Trooper doesn't look quite good enough here, and the same goes for Sun Champ. So here's how I think the race will unfold. . .

The gates open, and D' Funnybone breaks running and races up for the early lead. City Trooper and Wildcat Frankie also break alertly, and take up the chase, both of them intent on keeping D' Funnybone wide. Meanwhile, A Little Warm has broken just a step slowly, and he drops back to fourth on the outside of Radiohead, who is down along the fence in fifth. They are about three lengths off of the lead. Sitting sixth is Ibboyee, with Hear Ye Hear Ye and Sum Champ trailing the field.

Into the turn, Wildcat Frankie has a narrow lead over City Trooper and D' Funnybone. A Little Warm is beginning to rally, while Radiohead decides to wait a little longer before making his move. Hear Ye Hear Ye is also beginning his run, while Ibboyee begins to drop back. Sum Champ still trails the field, and isn't going anywhere fast.

Turning for home, D' Funnybone takes over as City Trooper and Wildcat Frankie begin to retreat. Suddenly, A Little Warm explodes on the outside with a sweeping move to snatch the lead from D' Funnybone. Hear Ye Hear Ye puts in an excellent late run to grab third, while Radiohead doesn't really get going until inside the sixteenth pole. He rallies for fourth, just in front of Wildcat Frankie. Ibboyee finishes up sixth, with City Trooper and Sun Champ trailing the field.

Those are my final thoughts. Now I shall turn to the. . .

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (gr. III) ---- Golden Gate Fields, Race 7, February 20th
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)

This race should be a good one, with a couple of good Triple Crown contenders getting ready for a rematch. They are Ranger Heartley and Connemara, the one-two finishers in last month's California Derby at this same track.

Ranger Heartly, who wired the field in the aforementioned race, should have a good shot at tomorrow's race. He will be ridden by Julio Garcia and will carry 121 pounds, the same as all of the other entries. His workouts have been good, but not spectacular.

Connemara, a son of Giant's Causeway, will be back for another try. Runner up in the California Derby, he should improve off of that race. His workouts have been excellent, and he seems primed for a huge effort. He will be ridden by Russell Baze.

Then there is Haimish Hy, who has turned in some good workouts. He could run a good race, but it's hard to say. He will be ridden by Michael Martinez.

So that brings us to Thomas Baines, third place in the California Derby behind Ranger Heartley and Connemara. His workouts have been quite good, and he will be ridden by Tyler Baze.

Now we move on to Posse Power, who is making his stakes debut. His workouts have been average, nothing to write home about. He will be ridden by Leslie Mawing.

This brings us to Very Fair, who has already started eight times. This will be his third start of the year. His workouts have been slowish, but not all that bad. His most recent was a rather good one, but still questionable. He will be ridden by William Antongeorgi III.

Next up is Fog Alert, who has turned in some really good workouts, the most recent being a handy five furlongs in :59 2/5. He will be ridden by Chad Schvaneveldt.

Our Minesweeper is the next colt to discuss. He has made seven starts so far, six of them in stakes competition. His workouts have been better than average, and he will be ridden by Frank Alvarado.

Last but not least, we come to Bert' N The Group, who will be ridden by Juan Hernandez. His workouts have been not all that bad and he could run an excellent race. Jairzihno, who might have had a good shot at stealing the race, was scratched today.

So my final selections for this race are. . .


1 Connemara
2 Ranger Heartley
3 Fog Alert
4 Thomas Baines
5 Our Minesweeper
6 Bert' N The Group
7 Haimish Hy
8 Posse Power
9 Very Fair

I think that Connemara will redeem himself after his first stakes try in the California Derby, where he was only beaten a half length. Ranger Heartley certainly has ability, but I think that this will be a tougher race to win. He will likely set the pace and relent the lead inside the final furlong. Fog Alert has had some great workouts and will likely turn in a big effort. Thomas Baines could run another good race, but I like the other three better. Our Minesweeper could surprise everyone, Bert' N The Group could run a much better race than I think he will, and Haimish Hy, Posse Power, and Very Fair just don't look good enough here. Those are my final thoughts.

And so now we move on to the. . .

RISEN START STAKES (gr. II) ---- Fair Grounds, February 20th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)

This race is going to be a tough one to figure out, as nearly every entry brings credentials that say he can pull off the win and rocket himself to the top of the Triple Crown picture.

A field of twelve was drawn for this mile and a sixteenth event, held at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. Last year, this race was won by Friesan Fire, who went on to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

As I have said, there are some great horses in this race, beginning with Ron the Greek, impressive winnner of the LeComte Stakes at this same track last month. In that race, he got an insane pace to chase as he closed from last place, but I still think that he is capable of closing off of slower fractions. The son of Full Mandate has been working out nicely, and he will carry 120 pounds, four more than the rest of the field. He will be ridden by John Graham.

Of course, there's no way you can throw out Letsgetitonmon, third place finisher in the LeComte. The son of Maria's Mon has had several average workouts since then, and will be ridden by Shaun Brigmohan.

Fifth place in the LeComte was Wordly, who was expected to run a much better race than he did. He should be able to rebound off of that race and come back with a good effort tomorrow. His workouts have been rather slow, but I suspect that Fair Ground has a rather slow track right now. The son of A.P. Indy will be ridden by Pat Valenzuela.

Tempted to Tapit, who will be making his stakes debut, could run a huge race based on his maiden win about a month ago. The son of Tapit destroyed the field by eleven and a half lengths, which seems to say he'll be ready to run. His workouts have been very impressive, and he will be ridden by David Cohen.

Then of course there is Discreetly Mine, a son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft. The colt was runner up to Homeboykris in last year's Champagne Stakes, but finished fourth in his 2010 debut. Still, the race was only six furlongs, and it was run in horrible slop. So along with the fact that the race was too short for him, he probably doesn't care for mud. I expect him to run a good one tomorrow. He has had some very good workouts, and he will be ridden by Javier Castellano.

But we must not ignore Hotep, a full brother to Queen's Plate winner Eye of the Leopard, who comes into the race off of a very impressive allowance win at this same track. Still, that race was only nineteen days ago, and it's possible that he's coming back a little bit fast. He will also be starting from post twelve. But I still think he is capable of winning the race if everything sets up right for him. The son of A.P. Indy will be ridden by Robby Albarado, who is best known as the rider of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

Then of course there is Drosselmeyer, winner of a mile and an eighth allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 31st. That race was only twenty days ago, but he should still be able to run a good race. The son of Distorted Humor will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He is supposed to run a fantastic race, but I'm not sure that he is as good as everyone thinks. His last workout wasn't as good as some of the others I have seen. It's very possible that he could pull off the win, but I'm just not sure. We'll see how he runs tomorrow.

Stay Put, a son of Broken Vow, should also put on a good show. He seems to have a good closing kick, but we'll see if it is as good as Ron the Greek's. His workouts haven't been terrible, but they certainly haven't been great. He will be ridden by Jamie Theriot.

Then there is Northern Giant, who comes off of a win at Oaklawn Park on February 4th. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and will be ridden by John Jacinto. His workouts have been rather good, and he should be able to run a big race.

Bravo Whiskey, Mountain Justice, and Random Move complete the field. Bravo Whiskey has had some better than average workouts and could run an excellent race. Mountain Justice has also had good works, and Random Move's have been a little slow. I imagine they will be the longshots, but all of them have the potential to upset the race.

So my final selections are. . .

1 Discreetly Mine
2 Hotep
3 Ron the Greek
4 Tempted to Tapit
5 Stay Put
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Letsgetitonmon
8 Northern Giant
9 Worldly
10 Bravo Whiskey
11 Mountain Justice
12 Random Move

As much as I like Ron the Greek, and as well as I think he'll do in the longer races, I just can't see him getting there tomorrow. He has a really fast pace to chase in the LeComte, and despite the fact that his move was very impressive; I just don't like him here. Add the fact that he will be carrying four pounds more than everyone else and I think he will be beaten. He'll be closing, but he just won't get there. I think that Discreetly Mine is a better horse going two turns, and that Hotep will race a bit greenly and just not get it done. Tempted to Tapit has the ability to win the race easily, but I think he lacks the experience that some of the others do. Stay Put should be coming late, and he could win if the pace is hot. Drosselmeyer didn't really impress me in his allowance win late last month, but he is definitely a classy horse and should not be ignored. He could pull off the win as well. This is an extremely tough race, and as much as I like Letsgetitonmon, I just don't think he's quite good enough here. Northern Giant could run a big one, but it's hard to gauge him. Finally, Bravo Whiskey, Mountain Justice, and Random Move appear to be just a bit outclassed here. We'll see, but I think they'll fill the bottom three spots.

So getting back to Ron the Greek, I think that he has just a bit too much to overcome. Still, I will be cheering him on and I would love to see him win the race. He is the horse that I will be pulling for. If he does manage to close fast enough to grab the win from this field, hats off to him, he's a better horse than I thought. If he can win this race tomorrow, he is going to be moving up on my "Top Twenty" list. And even if he only manages to grab third or fourth, I'll still keep him on my Top Twenty, as I think that he is built for Churchill Downs and is capable of running a big race on the first Saturday in May.

So here's how I think the race will unfold. . .

The gates open and Northen Giant breaks running, with Bravo Whiskey and Worldy also getting off to good starts. They race right up for the early lead as Tempted to Tapit and Hotep run together in fourth and fifth. Drosselmeyer runs patiently in sixth, while Discreetly Mine bides his time in seventh. Letsgetitonmon waits in eighth, Mountain Justice is close behind him in ninth, while Random Move and Stay Put sit together in tenth and eleventh. Finally, Ron the Greek trails the field.

Moving into the backstretch, it's still Northern Giant by about a length with Bravo Whiskey and Wordly racing close behind him. Tempted to Tapit is moving a bit closer, while Hotep waits in fifth. Drosselmeyer is right there in sixth, while Discreetly Mine and Letsgetitonmon are beginning to edge closer. Meanwhile, the positions are unchanged in the back of the pack.

Into the final turn, Northern Giant relents to the lead to Worldly as Bravo Whiskey plummeting to the back of the pack. Tempted to Tapit is coming with a big run on the outside while Hotep explodes through on the rail to take the lead. Discreetly Mine and Letsgetitonmon are moving together, with the former slightly stronger. Mountain Justice is failing to rally while Random Move has dropped back to last. Stay Put and Ron the Greek are beginning to uncoil, and both are passing horses on the outside.

Turning for home, it is Hotep on the lead by a length and a half, but Discreetly Mine is coming with a rush on the outside. Tempted to Tapit is beginning to flatten out as Ron the Greek and Stay Put pour it on from the rear. Drosselmeyer is making a mild rally but it is no where near strong enough. Letsgetitonmon is passing fading horses while the rest are tiring badly.

At the wire, it is Discreetly Mine by one length, with Hotep holding off Ron the Greek for second by a neck. It's another two lengths back to Tempted to Tapit, with Stay Put a neck behind him. Drosselmeyer is about a half length behind Stay Put, with Letsgetitonmon, Northern Giant, Wordly, Bravo Whiskey, Mountain Justice, and Random Move trailing the field. I could be wrong, but those are my final thoughts on the race.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

As I come to the conclusion of this unusually long post, I must mention a few other races that must be watched this weekend, as who knows where the next Triple Crown winner could come from.

Race number one is a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. Gothics Peak will try to redeem himself after a six place finish in his last race just three weeks ago. His workouts haven't been hugely impressive, but he should be watched just the same.

Race number two is the Jim's Orbit Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park in. . . Texas? Texas isn't exactly the top place to prep horses for the Triple Crown, but it must be remember that Assault, winner of the 1946 Triple Crown, was a Texas bred. It must also be remembered that last year's Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird prepped for the Derby in New Mexico. I think he was the first horse ever to even race in the Kentucky Derby after racing in New Mexico. So that's why every race for three year olds in the country, and preferably the world, should be watched closely. Of course, this is a monumental task that is not to be tried at home, for it would require spending twenty-four hours a day pouring over charts of race entries and results, as well as analyzing and memorizing names and statistics. And chances are, you still wouldn't find the Derby winner.

So getting back to the race, Coyote Legend, who comes off of a win at Delta Downs on January 15th, appears to be a solid contender for the Jim's Orbit. His last workout was great, going a half mile in a handy :47 3/5. The only concern is that it was in the mud, and it may possibly leave him a bit tired. Still, I think that he could have an excellent chance at winning.

Then of course there is the Silverbulletday Stakes (gr. III) for three year old fillies at Fair Grounds. The race is a mile and a sixteenth in distance, and it drew a seven horse field. The big names are Quiet Temper, winner of the Delta Princess last December, and Devil May Care, winner of the grade I Frizette Stakes last October before finishing up eleventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Still, that poor showing can be attributed to a poor trip and the synthetic surface, which she may not care for. But Fair Grounds is a dirt track, so it's nothing to worry about. Quiet Temper, a daughter of Quiet American, won the Delta Princess by an impressive seven and three quarter lengths. It was her first win four starts, the other three had been runner up performances. Following her big win, she won an allowance/optional claiming race on January 3rd for her 2010 debut, before fading to finish fifth in the Tiffany Lass Stakes behind Jody Slew, who his also in the Silverbulletday.

So, either of the two fillies I mentioned could win the race impressively, while I don't think that any of the other entries are capable of winning. Still, you never know.

Race number four is an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 21st. The race has drawn several promising colts in Colizeo, Fly Down, and First Dude. All are coming off of wins, and all have has nice workouts. Any one of them could run a good race and emerge as a possible Triple Crown horse.

Finally, there is the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise in Arizona. Although the chances of a Triple Crown contender coming from this race are small, it still bears watching. A mile and a sixteenth in distance, it drew a field of nine horses. As I am running low on time, (It would be nice if I posted this before the races are run, right?) I won't dive into a deep analysis of the race, but I will say that the name Indian Firewater rings a bell, as does Dixie Commander, Majestic Afleet, and Raton Pass. I have no idea who will come out of this race victorious, but I will be anxiously awaiting the results. I found it interesting that six of the nine entries are geldings.

This is going to be a great weekend!!!

-Keelerman

THE TWENTY, as of February 16th, 2010

1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
The more I examine him the better I like him. He's ready for a huge effort in the Fountain of Youth. Still wondering whether two nine furlongs prep races is going to get him ready for the Triple Crown, but Big Brown had even less preparation.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
Just keeps working and waiting. Could come out for the San Felipe in March, which would be great, but perhaps a little late in the spring? He's going to have to really show the stuff he did last year to stay where he is.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Had his opportunity to move up on this list, but the Southwest was postponed due to snow and ice. Will try again on the 20th. Workouts have been great.
4. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
As far as I know, he'll run in the Fountain of Youth. Seems to be ready, but his running style doesn't lend itself to winning the twenty horse Kentucky Derby. Still needs to prove that he can carry his speed a distance.
5. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
His workouts have been spectacular. He is going to be tough to beat in the Fountain of Youth, if he runs. Pedigree still says shorter distances, but who knows.
6 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams, Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
His victory in the Robert B. Lewis was an excellent one, and he beat two highly regarded colts in American Lion and Tiz Chrome. He's undefeated in five starts, and finished the race in a nice time. Got the perfect trip, sitting just off of two dueling horses, but he should get a similar pace in the Kentucky Derby, if he makes it there.
7. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Well, what can I say? He ran a really good race in the Sam F. Davis, better than I expected, and looks to be a legitimate Triple Crown Horse. Already has the earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby. Still the question of whether he can meet a horse like Super Saver and shake him off, but he looks really good.
8. DRYFLY Jump Start - Creeksider, by Topsider Lynn S, Whiting
Now that the Southwest Stakes has been postponed, he'll have to wait five more days. No big deal, but he may lose Calvin Borel if Calvin decided to ride Super Saver in the Fountain of Youth, like he did in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Another front runner who needs to show he can go a distance.
9. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
Has been entered in the Risen Star Stakes and should run a good race. He may have a little stiffer competition, but he looks like a really good closer, if he can get good fractions up front.
10. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
He didn't go to the Sam F. Davis, he didn't enter in the Risen Star, I guess that means that the Fountain of Youth is next. A return to two turns would be great. He could still be in the mix by the time the Kentucky Derby rolls around.
11. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
She succeeded in winning the Las Virgenes, if only by a nose. Closing from last in a six horse field with those slow fractions says she's something special. The Santa Anita Oaks in March should be next.
12. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
Ran a good but not great race in the Robert B. Lewis. I'm afraid that he didn't quite show Triple Crown caliber in that race. He's still one to watch, but not quite as closely.
13. AFLEET EXPRESS Afleet Alex - Expanse, by Distant View James A. Jerkens
He could surprise everyone with a shocking win if he runs in the Fountain of Youth. I still think that this horse could be something amazingly good.
14. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
His workouts have been great. I would not be surprised to see him run in the Fountain of Youth. If he does, look out. Still has the question of class, but his second to Lookin at Lucky last year says he should be able to run with the best.
15. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
I don't quite think that he is Triple Crown caliber. He just doesn't seem to be able to go that far. He looks more like a future Breeders' Cup Mile winner than a future Belmont Stakes winner. Racing on dirt would help find out.
16. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN
Well, his third in the Sam F. Davis was not what I expected from him. Still, if he has a bit more distance, he could turn out okay. If he follows up with the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby, his trail couldn't be much better.
17. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
Another horse that was set to go in the Southwest and now has to wait. He's got the speed to be in the Triple Crown, but stamina is still a question. His pedigree doesn't say distance, but he could run beyond what it says.
18. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
If he runs in the Fountain of Youth, the field he will be racing will be incredible. He has shown that he is a top class horse, but there's something about him that doesn't say Triple Crown.
19. DAVE IN DIXIE
Ran a really good race in the Robert B. Lewis, closing from far back in the five horse field after a six month layoff. He should improve with more distance.
19. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet
Interesting to see him show up in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Thinking about it, this is a better place for him than Florida. He'll get the chance to slowly build up along what looks to be a really nice pathway to the Triple Crown.


NOTABLE OTHER HORSES

VALE OF YORK Hard to gauge when in Dubai, may race out there soon.
BACKTALK Has been working towards return, when is unknown.
CONNEMARA Will run in the El Camino Real Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Is he waiting for the San Felipe?
FLY BY PHIL Wondering when he'll race again.
LAUS DEO Won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct, perhaps he’ll run in the Gotham.
STAY PUT All set to run in the Risen Star.
A LITTLE WARM Good workouts, should run in Hutcheson if all goes well.
AIKENITE Just doesn't seem to be good enough.
LENTENOR Wait until the 17th. We'll see what he does.
MAXIMUS RULER Will miss Risen Star due to slight injury.
GENERAL MAXIMUS He has got the speed, but can he carry it a distance?
KERA’S KITTEN May run in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on the 27th.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY Perhaps he'll recover in time for the Gotham.
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
HOMEBOYKRIS Seems to be a sprinter.
TIZ CHROME Did not get it done in the Robert B. Lewis, looks like a sprinter.
ESKENDEREYA Who knows how good he is. Perhaps the FOY is in his future.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Will run in the Risen Star.
HOTEP Impressive win at Fair Grounds.
CONCORD POINT Lost his whip in an allowance race on the 12th, finishing fourth, but could still be something special.
SIDNEY'S CANDY Good win in the San Vincente, maybe too much of a sprinter.
THE PROGRAM Nice workouts, impressive win, could be a nice one.
DISCREETLY MINE Will run in the Risen Star.
LETSGETITONMON Could run a big one in the Risen Star.
SASSY IMAGE Wasn't nominated to Triple Crown.
AFLEET AGAIN The Gotham would be great. Wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown.
A PLUS TOPPER On here because of his maiden win, wasn't nominated to TC.
WILDCAT FRANKIE Will try Hutcheson Stakes

Now for a few little updates to close this post. Outlaw Man worked four furlongs in 48 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park on February 13th, which was the sixteenth fastest of twenty-nine works at that distance. As far as I know, he is no where near being a Triple Crown horse, but quite often it's the horses who are virtually unknown at this time of year who end up winning the major stakes races. Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Giacomo, Jazil, Bernardini, Curlin, Big Brown, Da'Tara, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide all come to mind. And now, just for fun, here are twenty horses off of the "Notable Other Horses" list of mine that I believe have a shot at becoming big names later this year. Also note, I will not be including horses who have not been nominated to the Triple Crown, just like on the main twenty list. (The following list is organized the same way as my main list of twenty, with the horses I feel have the best chance of winning a Triple Crown race at the top of the list.)

1 Stay Put
2 The Program
3 Lentenor
4 Make Music for Me
5 Hotep
6 Connemara
7 A Little Warm
8 Kera's Kitten
9 Tempted to Tapit
10 Discreetly Mine
11 Vale of York
12 Eskendereya
13 Maximus Ruler
14 Backtalk
15 Sidney's Candy
16 Eightfiveinafifty
17 Concord Point
18 Aikenite
19 Laus Deo
20 Homeboykris

And finally, here is a list of horses who have worked out over the past couple days. . .

February 14th

Drosselmeyer breezed four furlongs in :50 flat at Payson Park Training Center.

February 15th

Tempted to Tapit breezed four furlongs in :48 4/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Fast Alex breezed six furlongs in 1:16 4/5 in the slop at Fair Grounds.
Letsgetitonmon breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 in the slop at Fair Grounds.
Speedy Mon breezed five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 on a good track at Fair Grounds.
Outquest breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 at Laurel Park.
Uh Oh Bango worked seven furlongs in 1:29 handily at Turf Paradise.
Colizeo worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.

posted by Keelerman