Well, the weekend was good and bad for the Triple Crown. Several contenders took the next step forward, and several contenders proved that they were not all that they were supposed to be. And one set of ten failed to prove anything at all, as the Southwest Stakes was postponed due to ice. So Dublin, Conveyance, Dryfly, and others will have to wait until the 20th. Because of this, I will be reposting my selections for the Southwest Stakes today. So get ready, this is a long post covering everything that happened last week and everything that will happen this week.
WRAPPING UP LAST WEEK:
SAN VINCENTE (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 15th
7 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race ended about how I thought it would, but the running of the race was far from what I had imagined. My selection, Sidney's Candy, won the race is good fashion. I had expected him to sit third early on, but he surprised me by taking the early lead and never losing it, winning by an impressive 4 1/4 lengths. Tiny Woods, whom I had selected to be the runner up, did indeed finish second, but instead of setting the pace, he chased it throughout. Classical Slew made a mild rally from mid pack to snag third, with Runaway Bandido coming from last at the half mile pole to finish fourth. Quiet Invader raced mid pack throughtout, but couldn't sustain his run, while Gilligan and Raging Wit failed to threaten.
So, here are the actual results. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Tiny Woods
3 Classical Slew
4 Runaway Bandido
5 Quiet Invader
6 Gilligan
7 Raging Wit
. . . versus my selections.
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Tiny Woods
3 Gilligan
4 Quiet Invader
5 Classical Slew
6 Runaway Bandido
7 Raging Wit
So, I correctly selected the exacta, but I was off after that. (Although I did pick Raging Wit to finish last!) This race probably won't send out a Triple Crown caliber horse, but I would not be surprised to see Sidney's Candy make it to the Kentucky Derby. If he does, and assuming Rule and Super Saver get there as well, it's going to be one battle for the lead. Getting back to the San Vicente, Tiny Woods ran a good race, but it just wasn't good enough. Quiet Invader seemed to be just a bit outclassed. Gilligan didn't run the race I thought he would, while Runaway Bandido ran better than I expected. So, Sidney's Candy will be one to watch along the California trail, while it's pretty safe to say that Tiny Woods won't be stretching out much farther than this.
So moving on, this brings us to the. . .
SAM F. DAVIS STAKES ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10, February 12th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
This race did not turn out the way I thought it would at all. My thought on this one was that Rule wouldn't be able to quite get the distance against this company, while Uptowncharlybrown would romp to an easy win. In reality, it was Rule who wired the field impressively, with Schoolyard Dreams coming home second over Uptowncharlybrown. African Moon scratched.
Here are the actual results. . .
1 Rule
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Silver Craft
5 Middle of the Nite
6 Tristen's Mambo
. . . and here are my selections from last week.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Rule
3 Tristen's Mambo
4 Schoolyard Dreams
6 Middle of the Nite
7 Silver Craft
So as you can see, I was wrong about Rule, who proved he is one to be reckoned with. Wiring the field and winning by three lengths is nothing to sneeze at. Still, he needs to show that he can sit off the lead too, not because I'm against front runners, but because it's hard to get into a good position in a race like the Kentucky Derby where there are twenty horses stumbling over each other in their attempts to find the rail. So, it would be nice to see Rule content in behind horses in a future race. Perhaps if he tries the Florida Derby about a month from now, we'll see him rate off of the lead. But getting back to the Sam F. Davis. . .
Schoolyard Dreams ran a nice race to finish second, a half length in front of Uptowncharlybrown after racing close to the pace throughout. Uptowncharlybrown ran a decent race, but the nice thing was that he was only really starting to get rolling at the finish, and he looked like he wanted more ground. If he gets to the Triple Crown, he'll have lots of it, and a little more pace up front as well.
Silver Craft ran much better than I expected him to, while Middle of the Nite ran the race I thought he would. I was completely wrong about Tristen's Mambo, who came in last of the six.
The results of this race helped make the Triple Crown Trail much clearer, as it is now very obvious that Rule is a horse to watch very, very closely, while Uptowncharlybrown should be given a second chance at a race with a little more distance. Still, when I think about Rule, I can't help but think back to the 2005 Kentucky Derby, where favored Bellamy Road chased the insane fractions of Spanish Chestnut and faded to finish seventh. The winner, Giacomo, came from eighteenth, while the runner up, Closing Argument, sat nearly six lengths off of the lead before making his run. Third place finisher Afleet Alex came from eleventh. So, when there is a lot of speed in the Kentucky Derby, it is typically the horses who come from way back who do the best. Which is why Uptowncharlybrown is still one to watch. If he was to get the fractions Giacomo got in his Derby, it would be really hard to catch him. So, both Rule and Uptowncharlybrown are ones to watch very closely, while Schoolyard Dreams should be watched to some extent.
Moving on to the next race, I shall wrap up the. . .
LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This was a really great race, with a terrific photo finish. It was one of those races where you can't tell who won even in the slow motion replays. This was especially fun for me because I was actually able to watch it, thanks to California Racing's great web site. And best of all, Blind Luck won.
So here are the results. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Evening Jewel
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Summer Games
. . . versus my selections.
1 Blind Luck
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Games
As it turned out, the horse I had picked to run second, La Nez, scratched from the race. I don't know any of the details, but hopefully she's alright. The race unfolded much like I expected it to, with Blind Luck dropping back to last while the other four entries raced fairly close together up front. Still, the pace was a slow one, and as they moved into the final turn with Blind Luck still last, I realized that it would take a Zenyatta-like move to get Blind Luck home in front. I was worried.
But not for long.
Down the homestretch they came, with Evening Jewel and Switch battling for the lead, Blind Luck slowly closing ground on the outside but it appeared that she was moving too slowly. Finally, Evening Jewel took a short lead from Switch, but Blind Luck poured it on in the shadow of the wire to win by a very short nose, with Evening Jewel an excellent second, with Switch third, Crisp fourth, and Summer Games last. After the finish, Switch dumped her rider, but both were okay.
So Blind Luck really ran a great race, even if it wasn't as impressive as I had hoped. This really proves to me that she is capable of taking on colts in the Santa Anita Derby, and perhaps even in one of the Triple Crown races, seeing that she would be getting a faster pace in any of them. Blind Luck could quite possibly be one of the best fillies in some time. Whether she is on the same level as Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, or Ouija Board is unknown. But hopefully she will have a chance to show us just how good she really is.
So now this brings us to the. . .
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This was definitely the most pleasing race of the week, and without a doubt the most influential. The race was supposed to be a battle between Tiz Chrome and American Lion, both of who had the credentials to become top class Triple Crown horses.
For much of the race, it looked as though that battle would occur. Tiz Chrome set the early pace with American Lion glued to his outside, pushing him all the way. Caracortado sat right behind them, patiently biding his time, waiting for the right moment to pounce on the two runaway leaders. Turning for him, he made his move on the outside, powering past the two tiring Tiznow's. From that point on, the race was his. Dave in Dixie, who hadn't raced since October, made a huge rally to grab second from American Lion, with Tiz Chrome fading to finish fourth. Tango Tango came home last. And best of all, Caracortado keeps his undefeated streak alive. He is now five for five. Will he become the second horse to win the Triple Crown undefeated? Many have tried, but only Seattle Slew was able to do it.
So, here are the actual results. . .
1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Tango Tango
. . . versus my selections.
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Tango Tango
So if Dave in Dixie hadn't nipped American Lion for second, I would have had the race in order, completely. However, it was not to be. Still, I greatly enjoyed seeing Caracortado begin to get respect, and he has now launched himself into the upper parts of the Triple Crown picture. At the very least, Lookin at Lucky will have someone to tangle with out in California.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Along with the stakes races mentioned above, there were several less important races run over the past few days which may or may not have an influence on this year's Triple Crown. I'll begin with the OBS Championship (Colts and Geldings Division) Stakes, run on the 15th. As I expected, Thank U Philippe was possibly still a bit tired from his run in the Holy Bull, and ended up fifth after making a brief rally. I expect him to improve in his next race.
The second race that warrants discussion is a five furlong allowance race on the turf, run on the 17th. Family Holiday and Peace at Dawn were the two entries I mentioned. Peace at Dawn came three wide and put in a mild rally to finish fourth, but Family Holiday came through with the win, going wire-to-wire as the second choice at 4-1. It was very interesting to find him in the race, as he was coming off a mile and an eighth allowance race on the dirt. But perhaps he'll return to the dirt soon.
The third race was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park, where Letenor was the heavy favorite, and I thought he deserved it to be too. But he was nabbed at the wire by Doubles Partner. Still, it was a solid effort, and Letenor should improve off of that race.
Race number four was a claiming race at Laurel Park. As I expected, Outquest ran a poor race, coming seven wide into the stretch and ended up ninth, beaten seven lengths. I have now officially removed him from my "Horses to Watch" list.
Race number five was an allowance optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs, run on the 17th. The winner was Odysseus, who was also the heavy favorite. The race was amazing, as he sat behind the leader in the early going and then blew past him, drawing off at will to win by fifteen lengths. Incredible. All of a sudden, I think it's possible that he is Triple Crown caliber and could make it into the Kentucky Derby. He is definitely one to watch now.
Race number six was the Baffle Stakes, an about six and a half furlongs turf race down the chute at Santa Anita Park. As was expected, the Bob Baffert trained Macias won by two and a half lengths as the heavy favorite. I imagine that he will stick to turf races from now on.
And finally, race number seven was the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park. I didn't discuss it last week, but I did know that Decelerator, runner up to Sassy Image in both the grade II Golden Rod and the grade III Pocahontas, was running. She ran an excellent race, waiting on the rail until they moved into the final turn, where she snuck through on the inside to take the lead and never give it back, winning by one length. She was ridden by Terry Thompson and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. I just thought I would mention it because Rachel Alexandra won this race last year in her seasonal bow. . .
And so now that I have recapped everything that happened over the last week, now it's time to discuss what might happen this week. I'll begin by reposting what I posted last week about the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
SOUTHWEST STAKES (gr. III) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 10, February 20th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
Momentum is picking up along the Triple Crown Trail, with several great preps on the 13th, and the 2010 debut of Buddy's Saint on the 20th. But the following race could end up being more important than any of them, as it drew a much deeper field than I thought it would.
The race drew ten entires, and all have great potential and a shot at winning the race, but perhaps none will be more thoroughly scrutinized as last year's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Dublin, a son of Afleet Alex.
Dublin had some problems last year. After winning the Hopeful, he turned in poor efforts in the grade I Champagne Stakes and the grade III Iroquis Stakes. As it turns out, he was suffering from an entrapped epiglottis, which was corrected at the end of last year. He now looks ready for a huge effort, based off of his workouts and the words of his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, who feels this horse could be something really, really special. Dublin will be ridden for the first time by Terry Thompson, and will carry 117 pounds.
Of, course, Dublin will have plenty of competition, as this is probably the deepest field of three year olds I have seen assembled this year. Dryfly, a son of Jump Start, won the Smarty Jones Stakes last month at this track and at this distance and should turn in a nice race. He will be ridden once again by Calvin Borel, who won the Kentucky Derby last year with 50-1 Mine That Bird and the Preakness Stakes with Rachel Alexandra. He also has a win in the 2007 Kentucky Derby with Street Sense. So, Calvin Borel definitely knows Churchill Downs, which is always a good thing. Dryfly will carry 122 pounds, which is five more than Dublin will carry, and a pretty large disadvantage.
Also having a huge shot at stealing the win is Conveyance, winner of the San Rafael Stakes last month at Santa Anita. The son of Indian Charlie is expected to be on or near the lead, and has the speed to wire the race. But Dryfly runs the same way, and will probably be breathing down his neck the entire way. Only time will tell who will finish in front of the other. Conveyance will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and carry 122 pounds. He will also be making his first start on dirt.
Cardiff Giant and Domonation have also shipped out from California. In his last race, Cardiff Giant finished second in the San Rafael, 1 3/4 lengths behind Conveyance. Domonation finished third in that same race, less than one length behind Cardiff Giant. Neither of them have never raced on dirt before.
Mission Impazible, ridden by John Velazquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, could also be in the mix. Carrying only 115 pounds, he comes off of a runner up performance in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 9th. Still, he was only beaten by a head on a sloppy track, so it's possible that he just doesn't like mud. His workouts have been nothing spectacular, but it's possible that he wasn't really being pushed.
The brings us to Cool Bullet, who will be ridden by B. Hernandez. Carrying 117 pounds, he comes into the race off of a fourth place finish in the LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds. His workouts have been rather slow. I suspect that Fair Grounds may be a little slow right now, but it's still something to think about.
Now we move on to Pleasant Storm, who will be ridden by L. McNeil. Carrying 117 pounds, he comes off of a second place finish to Dryfly in the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. Although he has only had one workout since that race, it was a good one, breezing six furlongs in 1:13 1/5. I have seen much faster, but I think that Oaklawn Park is very, very slow right now, so it's probably a much better workout than it appears to be.
Finally, this brings us to Kitty's Turn and Crider. Both will carry 115 pounds, the former being ridden by Robby Albarado and the latter by L. Quinonez. Crider is trained by Steve Asmussen, who definitely knows what he is doing, while Kitty's Turn is trained by G. Thomas. The latter finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Dryfly and Pleasant Storm, while Crider was fourth in that same race. Both are unknowns, but could surprise everyone. Still, I don't think they are quite on the same level as the rest of the field.
Son, my final selections for the Southwest Stakes are. . .
1 Dublin
2 Dryfly
3 Pleasant Storm
4 Convenyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 Domonation
7 Cariff Giant
8 Kitty's Turn
9 Cool Bullet
10 Crider
Of course, this race is very hard to figure out. So much class, and so evenly matched. I feel confident that Dublin is the best horse in the race, but I'm not sure that I have Dryfly in the right place. He could be any kind of horse. I think that having Calvin Borel as a jockey will help.
I'm also not sure that Pleasant Storm is in the right spot. He certainly has good credentials, but he is still a bit of an unknown. I have the feeling that Conveyance isn't going to like Oaklawn as well as he likes Santa Anita, but I could be wrong. Mission Impazible hasn't really impressed me so far, but he could run a huge race. Domonation could run a big one under 115 pounds, but I doubt it. Cariff Giant, Kitty's Turn, Cool Bullet, and Crider just don't appear to be good enough. I could be very wrong, but those are my thoughts. I suspect that Conveyance will set the early pace with Dryfly challenging him from the outside. Dublin will race up close, perhaps three to five lengths off of the lead, with Mission Impazible quite close as well. Pleasant Home will race closer to the back of the pack than the front. Turning for home, it should still be Conveyance with a short lead, but Dryfly will collar him inside the three sixteenth pole. Dublin and Pleasant Home will be closing powerfully on the outside, while Mission Impazible will be making a mild rally. Inside the eighth pole, Dublin will take the lead, but Dryfly will find something extra and battle him to the sixteenth pole, where Dublin draws away to win by a length and a half. Pleasant Home's rally will just fall short of Dryfly by about a half length. Conveyance will hold off Mission Impazible for fourth, while Domonation passes tiring horse in the stretch to snag sixth. Those are my final thoughts.
(Just a little update, when the post positions were redrawn, Dublin, instead of starting from gate ten, will actually start from gate three, and Conveyance, instead of getting gate two, will start from number nine. These changes could drastically affect the outcome of the race. And to boot, Conveyance loses Garrett Gomez as his jockey.)
And so now I shall discuss the much anticipated. . .
FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES (gr. II) ---- Gulfstream Park, Race 10, February 20th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
This is going to be, without a doubt, the most influential, most exciting, most important Triple Crown prep race this year. A field of ten was drawn, and if having Buddy's Saint making his three year old debut wasn't enough, we also have Jackson Bend, second in the Holy Bull Stakes of January 23rd, Pulsion, second to Champion 2yo Male Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk last year, and Eskendereya, who comes off of a nice allowance race.
This race could go virtually anywhere. Obviously, Buddy's Saint will be the favored off of his Nashua and Remsen wins last year, the former by twelve lengths and the latter by almost five lengths with Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris and Whirlaway Stakes winner Peppi Knows behind him. He has been working out nicely and should run a very good race. He will carry top weight of 122 pounds and be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
But he won't be alone, and Jackson Bend fully intends to give it everything he's got. The Nick Zito trained runner has put in some incredible workouts, the most recent being a half mile in :47 flat. Really, really sharp. He looks ready to run a spectacular race, and I would not be surprised if he won. In the long run, I think Buddy's Saint will perform better in the Triple Crown, but I think that Jackson Bend could provide a stiff challenge at this distance. He will be ridden by Jeremy Rose, who rode Afleet Alex to his wins in the Preakness and Belmont of 2005. He will carry 120 pounds, two less than Buddy's Saint.
Then there is Pulsion, who will get into the race with only 116 pounds. Ridden by Mike Smith, he will be making his 2010 debut, as well as his first start on dirt. He was scheduled to make his debut on January 31st, but was scratched by the vet. There is still the question of whether or not he is in the same class as Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend, but his closing second to Lookin at Lucky says that he should be able to handle them okay. He has been turning in some spectacular workouts, and he looks ready to turn in an amazing race. If the pace is fast up front, expect him to be flying late.
But then there is also Eskendereya, whose big win last year came in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park. The race was supposed to be on turf, but was rained on to the dirt. He won by seven lengths in the slop. He comes into the race off of a wire-to-wire win in an allowance race on January 7th at Gulfstream Park. He will carry 120 pounds and be ridden by John Velazquez. He is by Giant's Causeway, leading sire of 2009. Giant's Causeway is a good source of stamina, his foals including French Derby/French 2,000 Guineas winner Shamardal, Heatseeker, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap, Red Giant, who holds the world record for a mile and a quarter, Frost Giant, winner of the Suburban Handicap, Maids Causeway, winner of the Coronation Stakes, Man of Iron, winner of the Breeders' Cup Marathon at a mile and three quarters, and Noble Causeway, runner up to Afleet Alex in the 2005 Belmont Stakes. So, Eskendereya should be able to stretch out okay. So now the only question is can Eskendereya step up to this level of competition? We'll find out soon.
The next competitors are Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, one two finishers in a January 18th nine furlong allowance race at this track. Both could run exceptional races while carrying only 116 pounds each. Pleasant Prince will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, winner of the 2009 Eclipse award for outstanding jockey.
Now this brings us to Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. After a good but not great two year old season during which he was twice grade I placed and fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he returned for the Holy Bull Stakes, where he uncharacteristically chased the early pace and faded. He should be able to rebound off of that effort, but it must be remembered that Thank U Philippe, coming out of the speed dual in the Holy Bull, threw in a sub par effort in the OBS Championship (Colts and Geldings Division) Stakes. Just something to remember.
The next entry is Prince Will I Am, coming off of a late running second to highly respected Drosselmeyer in a nine furlongs allowance race on this same track. Closing from last in that small field as fast as he did makes him one to watch, especially when he's only carrying 116 pounds. He should be closing fast inside the final furlong, and if he actually has a good pace to run at, he could get to the wire first.
Now we move on to Positive Split, who will carry 116 pounds and be ridden by Edgar Prado. He has turned in several good workouts, and could put in a good run.
Last of all is Lost Aptitude, who will be ridden by R. Maragh and carry 118 pounds. His workouts have been decent ones, but not quite on the same level as those turned in by Jackson Bend and Pulsion. The son of Aptitude will likely be on or near the lead, and if he is left alone long enough, just might have enough left to wire the field.
So now I have finished discussing every horse in the race, and now I must make my selections. If I was to go strictly by workouts, I would have to go with Pulsion, whose workouts just keep improving. There is no reason why he won't like the dirt, but the question is can he close off of a slow pace? He is known to come from behind, so it would be nice for him if Jackson Bend and Buddy's Saint would hook up for the early lead, which seems unlikely. Still, I expect the pace of this race to be a solid one, so he should have something to run down. He comes off of a long layoff, but then so does Buddy's Saint. If you were to go with who is primed for a personal best I would have to select Jackson Bend. But when you get down to sheer class alone, Buddy's Saint seems to have the race. The only question is could this race be too short for him? It's possible, but the best can adapt to a less than perfect distance. He will break from post position two, so he shouldn't have any trouble getting to the rail. The run from the starting gate to the first turn in the Fountain of Youth is a very short one, so I would not be surprised to see Ice Box, breaking from post ten, to get hung wide going into that first turn.
So, if I was to select a longshot to win this race, in other words, not Buddy's Saint, Jackson Bend, Eskendereya, and Pulsion, I would go with Prince Will I Am. He has proven that he has a good late kick, he has run at this track at this distance, and should be able to get a good pace to run out. Breaking from gate six, he should have no trouble dropping back and getting to the rail.
Then of course you have Lost Aptitude, who comes off of a runner up finish to Fly By Phil in a nine furlongs turf race at this track. He just failed to wire the field in that race, and he has had nearly two months to recover from his grueling run. He has had three workouts since then, none of them being very impressive. As if that isn't enough, he will also have to break from post nine, which means he's going to have to gun it early if doesn't want to be caught wide. This means that the first quarter mile may be a little faster than you would expect, which means the deep closers like Pulsion and Prince Will I Am could have a shot at closing like rockets. Of course, we don't know where Aikenite will be early on, he could take back or he could gun for it and try to put away everyone early. The latter doesn't seem possible, but the former method may at least secure him a piece of the money.
Ice Box, who will be making his stakes debut, could also have a piece of it, but he will have to break from gate ten. He's going to have to either drop way back or pull off a miracle if he doesn't want to be wide on the first turn. But then again, if he was to turn into a colt like Big Brown, maybe it won't matter, After all, Big Brown took the first turn of the Kentucky Derby something like four wide and came home five lengths in front. Still, that's a rare performance, and Ice Box had better be careful in that first furlong.
Looking over the stats for Pleasant Prince, I see that his workouts have been less than spectacular, although they have been improving. On January 31st, he breezed five furlongs in 1:04 4/5 at Gulfstream Park, the slowest of thirty-nine workouts at that distance that day. A week later he breezes the same distance in 1:01 flat. Another week later he goes out and does it in 1:00 1/5 handily, the second fastest of thirty works at five furlongs. He looks ready to run, but I don't think he's quite in the same class as some of the more highly touted entries.
Positive Split, as I said before, has turned in several good workouts of excellent time, the most recent being a handy five furlongs at Gulfstream Park in 1:00 flat, the fastest of eleven workouts at that distance on that day. Prior to that he had three four furlongs workouts, all of which were under fifty second, the fastest being a handy :47 3/5.
And now for Buddy's Saint. I expect a huge effort from him. His workouts haven't been as fast as Pulsion's, but his trainer says he is on track and ready for the race. He is my current pick for the Kentucky Derby, and I'm dreaming of seeing him become the first colt to win the Triple Crown in thirty-two years. Of course, he still has to get to the Kentucky Derby, which the Fountain of Youth will help him do. Still, as good as he looks for the Triple Crown races, I think this race is just a tad short for him, and that Jackson Bend should be able to provide a stiff challenge for him, based off of his workouts and his past performances. Jackson Bend shouldn't have any trouble getting to the rail today.
So, my final selections are. . .
1 Buddy's Saint
2 Jackson Bend
3 Pulsion
4 Prince Will I Am
5 Eskendereya
6 Aikenite
7 Ice Box
8 Positive Split
9 Pleasant Prince
10 Lost Aptitude
Still, this race could go in just about any direction. As much as I like Buddy's Saint, I have the feeling that Jackson Bend is going to be the better horse at this distance tomorrow. Pulsion will be there if the pace is hot, and if they run a half a mile in under forty-seven seconds, I expect to see him flying in the final furlong, with Prince Will Am I right on his tail. Of course, if the pace is slower than a forty-seven second half, I can't see anybody catching Buddy's Saint and Jackson Bend.
So here's how I think the race will unfold. . .
The gates open, and Lost Aptitude charges away first, with Jackson Bend and Ice Box both moving after him. Into the first turn, it is Lost Aptitude with a narrow lead on the outside of Jackson Bend, with Ice Box in the three path. They are less than a length apart. Two lengths behind them sits Buddy's Saint on the rail, with Positive Split on his outside. Pleasant Prince is right on their tails. Then it's another gap of two back to Aikenite on the rail, with Eskendereya on his outside. Finally, Pulsion runs in ninth position with Prince Will I Am last of them all. Moving into the backstretch Jackson Bend shakes off Lost Aptitude, but Ice Box remains stubborn on his outside. Buddy's Saint is beginning to inch up on the inside with Positive Split staying with him. Meanwhile, Aikenite is beginning to move close while Pleasant Prince, Eskendereya, Pulsion, and Prince Will I Am sit chilly at the back of the pack. Into the final turn, Ice Box retreats, leaving Jackson Bend alone on the lead, but only for a moment as Buddy's Saint explodes through on the fence to challenge on the inside. Positive Split, unable to go with Buddy's Saint, begins to drop back as Aikenite moves up to threaten in the three path while Eskendereya, Pulsion, and Prince Will I Am begin their runs. Into the homestretch, it is Buddy's Saint with a half length lead over a stubborn Jackson Bend, with Pulsion and Prince Will I Am bearing down in the middle of the track. Eskendereya is charging as well, but not quite as fast. At the wire, it is Buddy's Saint by a half length, with Jackson Bend second, just holding off Pulsion by another half length, with Prince Will I Am a length behind him in fourth. Eskendereya succeeds in passing a tiring Aikenite for fifth. Ice Box, Positive Split, Pleasant Prince, and Lost Aptitude trail the field.
So, that said, my final thought on the race is that Eskendereya could run a much better race than I think he will. He's bred to get distance, he has a nice win on sloppy dirt, and if the track is sloppy tomorrow, I would not be surprised at all if he won convincingly.
That is all. Now we can move on to the. . .
HUTCHESON STAKES (gr. II) ---- Gulfstream Park, Race 8, February 20th
7 Furlongs (Dirt)
This should be a really good race, even though the winner of a Triple Crown race probably won't come out of it. Still, you never know where the next Triple Crown winner will come from, so the best you can do is pay attention to every race for three year olds leading up to the big three.
The big name here is D' Funnybone, winner of dual grade II races last year, when he won the Saratoga Special and the Futurity Stakes at Saratoga and Belmont Park, respectively. One hundred years ago, winning the Futurity was the biggest accomplishment in horse racing, it was the Kentucky Derby of its day. Well, the race still exists, but winning it means little to nothing anymore. Still, it's worth mentioning that the Futurity is the same seven furlongs distance at the Hutcheson tomorrow, so the race should be just perfect for D' Funnybone.
D' Funnybone, a son of D'wildcat, will carry co-top weight of 122 pounds, along with group II winner in England Radiohead. Both are trained by Richard Dutrow, who trained Big Brown to his Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins two years ago. D' Funnybone has been very impressive in all of his races except for one, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he finished last, beaten something like thirty lengths. This seems to say that he does not care for synthetic tracks, but it also seems to say that he has trouble stretching out, which would mean no Triple Crown for him. Still, it's possible that there was something else bothering him that day, and that synthetics and/or two turns had nothing to do with his poor showing. He'll probably get a chance at two turns later this year, but for now, all he has to do is run well in a one turn seven furlong race and everyone will be happy. He will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
But he will have solid competition. A Little Warm, a son of Stormin Fever, comes into the race off of a win in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this same track. That race was run on very sloppy conditions, so he should have little trouble handling an off track should one turn up tomorrow. His last workout was excellent, and he seems primed for a good effort. He will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose.
Wildcat Frankie, a son of Wildcat Heir, could also make his presence felt. After finishing second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes, one and a half lengths behind A Little Warm, he returned on February 4th to score a win in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. He doesn't seem to be crying for distance, as he barely held on to the win. He will also be coming back off that trying effort only two weeks later, with no workouts since then, and he will be facing stiffer competition. Still, it's a step down in distance, and if he can handle everything I mentioned, he could easily turn the tables and come away with a solid win.
Then of course, there is Radiohead, whom I mentioned before. As I said, he will carry 122 pounds. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Radiohead was a solid colt over in England last year prior to being shipped into the United States. In his first start in the U.S., he finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf behind fellow European Pounced. This will be his first start since then, and his debut on a dirt track.
Then there is Ibboyee, coming off of a fourth place finish in the January 2nd Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct as the heavy favorite. He will be carrying 120 pounds and will be ridden by John Velazquez.
Starting from gate six if Hear Ye Hear Ye, winner of the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes last November. He will also carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by J. Sanchez.
City Trooper, with 116 pounds on his back, could get a piece of the money. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez. I'm not sure why Gomez is in Florida right now, typically he rides out in California.
Finally, we come to Sum Champ, who will be ridden by C. Velasquez. Carrying only 116 pounds, he could turn in a good effort.
So, my final selections for this race are. . .
1 A Little Warm
2 D' Funnybone
3 Hear Ye Hear Ye
4 Radiohead
5 Wildcat Frankie
6 Ibboyee
7 City Trooper
8 Sum Champ
I was very impressed with A Little Warm's performance in last month Spectacular Bid Stakes. The time was sharp considering how sloppy the track was, and he defeated Wildcat Frankie fairly easily. D' Funnybone will likely be favored, and I would not be surprised to see him win, but I think that at this time A Little Warm is the better horse. This will be especially so if the track turns up sloppy. Still, he will be starting from post eight, and it's possible that he could be caught wide on the turn. If so, he's going to have to run a spectacular race to defeat D' Funnybone. If he does get caught wide, it's entirely possible that D' Funnybone could snatch the win from him. However, D' Funnybone isn't going to be in a much better position than A Little Warm, as the former will be breaking from gate seven. In that case, it's entirely possible that a longshot with the rail could go wire-to-wire. Hopefully, everyone will get a clean trip, but it's possible that this won't happen.
I'm going with a hunch that Hear Ye Hear Ye is going to run a good race and grab third. I suspect that Radiohead just isn't quite good enough, but I could be wrong. Radiohead was an excellent two year old in England, competing with the best of them. Vale of York, who upset last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, came into that race with similar credentials to Radiohead. I suspect that Radiohead will put on a better performance than he did in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, just because he has had some time to adjust to the United States, get used to the different climate, and get a little more practice on the American tracks. So I would not be surprised if the news comes that Radiohead pulled off the win. Moving on to Wildcat Frankie, I think he's coming back just a bit too soon off of his allowance win two weeks ago. I think he's still going to be a bit tired from that one mile effort and just won't run his race. Ibboyee could get a piece of it, but I really don't think so. City Trooper doesn't look quite good enough here, and the same goes for Sun Champ. So here's how I think the race will unfold. . .
The gates open, and D' Funnybone breaks running and races up for the early lead. City Trooper and Wildcat Frankie also break alertly, and take up the chase, both of them intent on keeping D' Funnybone wide. Meanwhile, A Little Warm has broken just a step slowly, and he drops back to fourth on the outside of Radiohead, who is down along the fence in fifth. They are about three lengths off of the lead. Sitting sixth is Ibboyee, with Hear Ye Hear Ye and Sum Champ trailing the field.
Into the turn, Wildcat Frankie has a narrow lead over City Trooper and D' Funnybone. A Little Warm is beginning to rally, while Radiohead decides to wait a little longer before making his move. Hear Ye Hear Ye is also beginning his run, while Ibboyee begins to drop back. Sum Champ still trails the field, and isn't going anywhere fast.
Turning for home, D' Funnybone takes over as City Trooper and Wildcat Frankie begin to retreat. Suddenly, A Little Warm explodes on the outside with a sweeping move to snatch the lead from D' Funnybone. Hear Ye Hear Ye puts in an excellent late run to grab third, while Radiohead doesn't really get going until inside the sixteenth pole. He rallies for fourth, just in front of Wildcat Frankie. Ibboyee finishes up sixth, with City Trooper and Sun Champ trailing the field.
Those are my final thoughts. Now I shall turn to the. . .
EL CAMINO REAL DERBY (gr. III) ---- Golden Gate Fields, Race 7, February 20th
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race should be a good one, with a couple of good Triple Crown contenders getting ready for a rematch. They are Ranger Heartley and Connemara, the one-two finishers in last month's California Derby at this same track.
Ranger Heartly, who wired the field in the aforementioned race, should have a good shot at tomorrow's race. He will be ridden by Julio Garcia and will carry 121 pounds, the same as all of the other entries. His workouts have been good, but not spectacular.
Connemara, a son of Giant's Causeway, will be back for another try. Runner up in the California Derby, he should improve off of that race. His workouts have been excellent, and he seems primed for a huge effort. He will be ridden by Russell Baze.
Then there is Haimish Hy, who has turned in some good workouts. He could run a good race, but it's hard to say. He will be ridden by Michael Martinez.
So that brings us to Thomas Baines, third place in the California Derby behind Ranger Heartley and Connemara. His workouts have been quite good, and he will be ridden by Tyler Baze.
Now we move on to Posse Power, who is making his stakes debut. His workouts have been average, nothing to write home about. He will be ridden by Leslie Mawing.
This brings us to Very Fair, who has already started eight times. This will be his third start of the year. His workouts have been slowish, but not all that bad. His most recent was a rather good one, but still questionable. He will be ridden by William Antongeorgi III.
Next up is Fog Alert, who has turned in some really good workouts, the most recent being a handy five furlongs in :59 2/5. He will be ridden by Chad Schvaneveldt.
Our Minesweeper is the next colt to discuss. He has made seven starts so far, six of them in stakes competition. His workouts have been better than average, and he will be ridden by Frank Alvarado.
Last but not least, we come to Bert' N The Group, who will be ridden by Juan Hernandez. His workouts have been not all that bad and he could run an excellent race. Jairzihno, who might have had a good shot at stealing the race, was scratched today.
So my final selections for this race are. . .
1 Connemara
2 Ranger Heartley
3 Fog Alert
4 Thomas Baines
5 Our Minesweeper
6 Bert' N The Group
7 Haimish Hy
8 Posse Power
9 Very Fair
I think that Connemara will redeem himself after his first stakes try in the California Derby, where he was only beaten a half length. Ranger Heartley certainly has ability, but I think that this will be a tougher race to win. He will likely set the pace and relent the lead inside the final furlong. Fog Alert has had some great workouts and will likely turn in a big effort. Thomas Baines could run another good race, but I like the other three better. Our Minesweeper could surprise everyone, Bert' N The Group could run a much better race than I think he will, and Haimish Hy, Posse Power, and Very Fair just don't look good enough here. Those are my final thoughts.
And so now we move on to the. . .
RISEN START STAKES (gr. II) ---- Fair Grounds, February 20th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
This race is going to be a tough one to figure out, as nearly every entry brings credentials that say he can pull off the win and rocket himself to the top of the Triple Crown picture.
A field of twelve was drawn for this mile and a sixteenth event, held at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. Last year, this race was won by Friesan Fire, who went on to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
As I have said, there are some great horses in this race, beginning with Ron the Greek, impressive winnner of the LeComte Stakes at this same track last month. In that race, he got an insane pace to chase as he closed from last place, but I still think that he is capable of closing off of slower fractions. The son of Full Mandate has been working out nicely, and he will carry 120 pounds, four more than the rest of the field. He will be ridden by John Graham.
Of course, there's no way you can throw out Letsgetitonmon, third place finisher in the LeComte. The son of Maria's Mon has had several average workouts since then, and will be ridden by Shaun Brigmohan.
Fifth place in the LeComte was Wordly, who was expected to run a much better race than he did. He should be able to rebound off of that race and come back with a good effort tomorrow. His workouts have been rather slow, but I suspect that Fair Ground has a rather slow track right now. The son of A.P. Indy will be ridden by Pat Valenzuela.
Tempted to Tapit, who will be making his stakes debut, could run a huge race based on his maiden win about a month ago. The son of Tapit destroyed the field by eleven and a half lengths, which seems to say he'll be ready to run. His workouts have been very impressive, and he will be ridden by David Cohen.
Then of course there is Discreetly Mine, a son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft. The colt was runner up to Homeboykris in last year's Champagne Stakes, but finished fourth in his 2010 debut. Still, the race was only six furlongs, and it was run in horrible slop. So along with the fact that the race was too short for him, he probably doesn't care for mud. I expect him to run a good one tomorrow. He has had some very good workouts, and he will be ridden by Javier Castellano.
But we must not ignore Hotep, a full brother to Queen's Plate winner Eye of the Leopard, who comes into the race off of a very impressive allowance win at this same track. Still, that race was only nineteen days ago, and it's possible that he's coming back a little bit fast. He will also be starting from post twelve. But I still think he is capable of winning the race if everything sets up right for him. The son of A.P. Indy will be ridden by Robby Albarado, who is best known as the rider of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.
Then of course there is Drosselmeyer, winner of a mile and an eighth allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 31st. That race was only twenty days ago, but he should still be able to run a good race. The son of Distorted Humor will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He is supposed to run a fantastic race, but I'm not sure that he is as good as everyone thinks. His last workout wasn't as good as some of the others I have seen. It's very possible that he could pull off the win, but I'm just not sure. We'll see how he runs tomorrow.
Stay Put, a son of Broken Vow, should also put on a good show. He seems to have a good closing kick, but we'll see if it is as good as Ron the Greek's. His workouts haven't been terrible, but they certainly haven't been great. He will be ridden by Jamie Theriot.
Then there is Northern Giant, who comes off of a win at Oaklawn Park on February 4th. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and will be ridden by John Jacinto. His workouts have been rather good, and he should be able to run a big race.
Bravo Whiskey, Mountain Justice, and Random Move complete the field. Bravo Whiskey has had some better than average workouts and could run an excellent race. Mountain Justice has also had good works, and Random Move's have been a little slow. I imagine they will be the longshots, but all of them have the potential to upset the race.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Discreetly Mine
2 Hotep
3 Ron the Greek
4 Tempted to Tapit
5 Stay Put
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Letsgetitonmon
8 Northern Giant
9 Worldly
10 Bravo Whiskey
11 Mountain Justice
12 Random Move
As much as I like Ron the Greek, and as well as I think he'll do in the longer races, I just can't see him getting there tomorrow. He has a really fast pace to chase in the LeComte, and despite the fact that his move was very impressive; I just don't like him here. Add the fact that he will be carrying four pounds more than everyone else and I think he will be beaten. He'll be closing, but he just won't get there. I think that Discreetly Mine is a better horse going two turns, and that Hotep will race a bit greenly and just not get it done. Tempted to Tapit has the ability to win the race easily, but I think he lacks the experience that some of the others do. Stay Put should be coming late, and he could win if the pace is hot. Drosselmeyer didn't really impress me in his allowance win late last month, but he is definitely a classy horse and should not be ignored. He could pull off the win as well. This is an extremely tough race, and as much as I like Letsgetitonmon, I just don't think he's quite good enough here. Northern Giant could run a big one, but it's hard to gauge him. Finally, Bravo Whiskey, Mountain Justice, and Random Move appear to be just a bit outclassed here. We'll see, but I think they'll fill the bottom three spots.
So getting back to Ron the Greek, I think that he has just a bit too much to overcome. Still, I will be cheering him on and I would love to see him win the race. He is the horse that I will be pulling for. If he does manage to close fast enough to grab the win from this field, hats off to him, he's a better horse than I thought. If he can win this race tomorrow, he is going to be moving up on my "Top Twenty" list. And even if he only manages to grab third or fourth, I'll still keep him on my Top Twenty, as I think that he is built for Churchill Downs and is capable of running a big race on the first Saturday in May.
So here's how I think the race will unfold. . .
The gates open and Northen Giant breaks running, with Bravo Whiskey and Worldy also getting off to good starts. They race right up for the early lead as Tempted to Tapit and Hotep run together in fourth and fifth. Drosselmeyer runs patiently in sixth, while Discreetly Mine bides his time in seventh. Letsgetitonmon waits in eighth, Mountain Justice is close behind him in ninth, while Random Move and Stay Put sit together in tenth and eleventh. Finally, Ron the Greek trails the field.
Moving into the backstretch, it's still Northern Giant by about a length with Bravo Whiskey and Wordly racing close behind him. Tempted to Tapit is moving a bit closer, while Hotep waits in fifth. Drosselmeyer is right there in sixth, while Discreetly Mine and Letsgetitonmon are beginning to edge closer. Meanwhile, the positions are unchanged in the back of the pack.
Into the final turn, Northern Giant relents to the lead to Worldly as Bravo Whiskey plummeting to the back of the pack. Tempted to Tapit is coming with a big run on the outside while Hotep explodes through on the rail to take the lead. Discreetly Mine and Letsgetitonmon are moving together, with the former slightly stronger. Mountain Justice is failing to rally while Random Move has dropped back to last. Stay Put and Ron the Greek are beginning to uncoil, and both are passing horses on the outside.
Turning for home, it is Hotep on the lead by a length and a half, but Discreetly Mine is coming with a rush on the outside. Tempted to Tapit is beginning to flatten out as Ron the Greek and Stay Put pour it on from the rear. Drosselmeyer is making a mild rally but it is no where near strong enough. Letsgetitonmon is passing fading horses while the rest are tiring badly.
At the wire, it is Discreetly Mine by one length, with Hotep holding off Ron the Greek for second by a neck. It's another two lengths back to Tempted to Tapit, with Stay Put a neck behind him. Drosselmeyer is about a half length behind Stay Put, with Letsgetitonmon, Northern Giant, Wordly, Bravo Whiskey, Mountain Justice, and Random Move trailing the field. I could be wrong, but those are my final thoughts on the race.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As I come to the conclusion of this unusually long post, I must mention a few other races that must be watched this weekend, as who knows where the next Triple Crown winner could come from.
Race number one is a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. Gothics Peak will try to redeem himself after a six place finish in his last race just three weeks ago. His workouts haven't been hugely impressive, but he should be watched just the same.
Race number two is the Jim's Orbit Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park in. . . Texas? Texas isn't exactly the top place to prep horses for the Triple Crown, but it must be remember that Assault, winner of the 1946 Triple Crown, was a Texas bred. It must also be remembered that last year's Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird prepped for the Derby in New Mexico. I think he was the first horse ever to even race in the Kentucky Derby after racing in New Mexico. So that's why every race for three year olds in the country, and preferably the world, should be watched closely. Of course, this is a monumental task that is not to be tried at home, for it would require spending twenty-four hours a day pouring over charts of race entries and results, as well as analyzing and memorizing names and statistics. And chances are, you still wouldn't find the Derby winner.
So getting back to the race, Coyote Legend, who comes off of a win at Delta Downs on January 15th, appears to be a solid contender for the Jim's Orbit. His last workout was great, going a half mile in a handy :47 3/5. The only concern is that it was in the mud, and it may possibly leave him a bit tired. Still, I think that he could have an excellent chance at winning.
Then of course there is the Silverbulletday Stakes (gr. III) for three year old fillies at Fair Grounds. The race is a mile and a sixteenth in distance, and it drew a seven horse field. The big names are Quiet Temper, winner of the Delta Princess last December, and Devil May Care, winner of the grade I Frizette Stakes last October before finishing up eleventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Still, that poor showing can be attributed to a poor trip and the synthetic surface, which she may not care for. But Fair Grounds is a dirt track, so it's nothing to worry about. Quiet Temper, a daughter of Quiet American, won the Delta Princess by an impressive seven and three quarter lengths. It was her first win four starts, the other three had been runner up performances. Following her big win, she won an allowance/optional claiming race on January 3rd for her 2010 debut, before fading to finish fifth in the Tiffany Lass Stakes behind Jody Slew, who his also in the Silverbulletday.
So, either of the two fillies I mentioned could win the race impressively, while I don't think that any of the other entries are capable of winning. Still, you never know.
Race number four is an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 21st. The race has drawn several promising colts in Colizeo, Fly Down, and First Dude. All are coming off of wins, and all have has nice workouts. Any one of them could run a good race and emerge as a possible Triple Crown horse.
Finally, there is the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise in Arizona. Although the chances of a Triple Crown contender coming from this race are small, it still bears watching. A mile and a sixteenth in distance, it drew a field of nine horses. As I am running low on time, (It would be nice if I posted this before the races are run, right?) I won't dive into a deep analysis of the race, but I will say that the name Indian Firewater rings a bell, as does Dixie Commander, Majestic Afleet, and Raton Pass. I have no idea who will come out of this race victorious, but I will be anxiously awaiting the results. I found it interesting that six of the nine entries are geldings.
This is going to be a great weekend!!!
-Keelerman
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