1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
The more I examine him the better I like him. He's ready for a huge effort in the Fountain of Youth. Still wondering whether two nine furlongs prep races is going to get him ready for the Triple Crown, but Big Brown had even less preparation.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
Just keeps working and waiting. Could come out for the San Felipe in March, which would be great, but perhaps a little late in the spring? He's going to have to really show the stuff he did last year to stay where he is.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Had his opportunity to move up on this list, but the Southwest was postponed due to snow and ice. Will try again on the 20th. Workouts have been great.
4. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
As far as I know, he'll run in the Fountain of Youth. Seems to be ready, but his running style doesn't lend itself to winning the twenty horse Kentucky Derby. Still needs to prove that he can carry his speed a distance.
5. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
His workouts have been spectacular. He is going to be tough to beat in the Fountain of Youth, if he runs. Pedigree still says shorter distances, but who knows.
6 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams, Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
His victory in the Robert B. Lewis was an excellent one, and he beat two highly regarded colts in American Lion and Tiz Chrome. He's undefeated in five starts, and finished the race in a nice time. Got the perfect trip, sitting just off of two dueling horses, but he should get a similar pace in the Kentucky Derby, if he makes it there.
7. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Well, what can I say? He ran a really good race in the Sam F. Davis, better than I expected, and looks to be a legitimate Triple Crown Horse. Already has the earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby. Still the question of whether he can meet a horse like Super Saver and shake him off, but he looks really good.
8. DRYFLY Jump Start - Creeksider, by Topsider Lynn S, Whiting
Now that the Southwest Stakes has been postponed, he'll have to wait five more days. No big deal, but he may lose Calvin Borel if Calvin decided to ride Super Saver in the Fountain of Youth, like he did in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Another front runner who needs to show he can go a distance.
9. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
Has been entered in the Risen Star Stakes and should run a good race. He may have a little stiffer competition, but he looks like a really good closer, if he can get good fractions up front.
10. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
He didn't go to the Sam F. Davis, he didn't enter in the Risen Star, I guess that means that the Fountain of Youth is next. A return to two turns would be great. He could still be in the mix by the time the Kentucky Derby rolls around.
11. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
She succeeded in winning the Las Virgenes, if only by a nose. Closing from last in a six horse field with those slow fractions says she's something special. The Santa Anita Oaks in March should be next.
12. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
Ran a good but not great race in the Robert B. Lewis. I'm afraid that he didn't quite show Triple Crown caliber in that race. He's still one to watch, but not quite as closely.
13. AFLEET EXPRESS Afleet Alex - Expanse, by Distant View James A. Jerkens
He could surprise everyone with a shocking win if he runs in the Fountain of Youth. I still think that this horse could be something amazingly good.
14. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
His workouts have been great. I would not be surprised to see him run in the Fountain of Youth. If he does, look out. Still has the question of class, but his second to Lookin at Lucky last year says he should be able to run with the best.
15. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
I don't quite think that he is Triple Crown caliber. He just doesn't seem to be able to go that far. He looks more like a future Breeders' Cup Mile winner than a future Belmont Stakes winner. Racing on dirt would help find out.
16. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN
Well, his third in the Sam F. Davis was not what I expected from him. Still, if he has a bit more distance, he could turn out okay. If he follows up with the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby, his trail couldn't be much better.
17. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
Another horse that was set to go in the Southwest and now has to wait. He's got the speed to be in the Triple Crown, but stamina is still a question. His pedigree doesn't say distance, but he could run beyond what it says.
18. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
If he runs in the Fountain of Youth, the field he will be racing will be incredible. He has shown that he is a top class horse, but there's something about him that doesn't say Triple Crown.
19. DAVE IN DIXIE
Ran a really good race in the Robert B. Lewis, closing from far back in the five horse field after a six month layoff. He should improve with more distance.
19. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet
Interesting to see him show up in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Thinking about it, this is a better place for him than Florida. He'll get the chance to slowly build up along what looks to be a really nice pathway to the Triple Crown.
NOTABLE OTHER HORSES
VALE OF YORK Hard to gauge when in Dubai, may race out there soon.
BACKTALK Has been working towards return, when is unknown.
CONNEMARA Will run in the El Camino Real Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Is he waiting for the San Felipe?
FLY BY PHIL Wondering when he'll race again.
LAUS DEO Won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct, perhaps he’ll run in the Gotham.
STAY PUT All set to run in the Risen Star.
A LITTLE WARM Good workouts, should run in Hutcheson if all goes well.
AIKENITE Just doesn't seem to be good enough.
LENTENOR Wait until the 17th. We'll see what he does.
MAXIMUS RULER Will miss Risen Star due to slight injury.
GENERAL MAXIMUS He has got the speed, but can he carry it a distance?
KERA’S KITTEN May run in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on the 27th.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY Perhaps he'll recover in time for the Gotham.
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
HOMEBOYKRIS Seems to be a sprinter.
TIZ CHROME Did not get it done in the Robert B. Lewis, looks like a sprinter.
ESKENDEREYA Who knows how good he is. Perhaps the FOY is in his future.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Will run in the Risen Star.
HOTEP Impressive win at Fair Grounds.
CONCORD POINT Lost his whip in an allowance race on the 12th, finishing fourth, but could still be something special.
SIDNEY'S CANDY Good win in the San Vincente, maybe too much of a sprinter.
THE PROGRAM Nice workouts, impressive win, could be a nice one.
DISCREETLY MINE Will run in the Risen Star.
LETSGETITONMON Could run a big one in the Risen Star.
SASSY IMAGE Wasn't nominated to Triple Crown.
AFLEET AGAIN The Gotham would be great. Wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown.
A PLUS TOPPER On here because of his maiden win, wasn't nominated to TC.
WILDCAT FRANKIE Will try Hutcheson Stakes
Now for a few little updates to close this post. Outlaw Man worked four furlongs in 48 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park on February 13th, which was the sixteenth fastest of twenty-nine works at that distance. As far as I know, he is no where near being a Triple Crown horse, but quite often it's the horses who are virtually unknown at this time of year who end up winning the major stakes races. Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Giacomo, Jazil, Bernardini, Curlin, Big Brown, Da'Tara, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide all come to mind. And now, just for fun, here are twenty horses off of the "Notable Other Horses" list of mine that I believe have a shot at becoming big names later this year. Also note, I will not be including horses who have not been nominated to the Triple Crown, just like on the main twenty list. (The following list is organized the same way as my main list of twenty, with the horses I feel have the best chance of winning a Triple Crown race at the top of the list.)
1 Stay Put
2 The Program
3 Lentenor
4 Make Music for Me
5 Hotep
6 Connemara
7 A Little Warm
8 Kera's Kitten
9 Tempted to Tapit
10 Discreetly Mine
11 Vale of York
12 Eskendereya
13 Maximus Ruler
14 Backtalk
15 Sidney's Candy
16 Eightfiveinafifty
17 Concord Point
18 Aikenite
19 Laus Deo
20 Homeboykris
And finally, here is a list of horses who have worked out over the past couple days. . .
February 14th
Drosselmeyer breezed four furlongs in :50 flat at Payson Park Training Center.
February 15th
Tempted to Tapit breezed four furlongs in :48 4/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Fast Alex breezed six furlongs in 1:16 4/5 in the slop at Fair Grounds.
Letsgetitonmon breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 in the slop at Fair Grounds.
Speedy Mon breezed five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 on a good track at Fair Grounds.
Outquest breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 at Laurel Park.
Uh Oh Bango worked seven furlongs in 1:29 handily at Turf Paradise.
Colizeo worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
posted by Keelerman
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