Get ready --- it's a big weekend coming up. We're going to get a chance to see Rule, Uptowncharlybrown, Sassy Image, Blind Luck, American Lion, Caracortado, Tiz Chrome, La Nez, and quite possibly Dublin, all racing on February 13th, 14th, and 15th. When the racing is done, the trail to the Triple Crown will be considerably clearer.
So, let's take a look at what's brewing in Florida. . .
SAM F. DAVIS STAKES ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10, February 12th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
This race looks like it will be an extremely influential race, as it drew two highly regarded colts in Uptowncharlybrown and Rule. Rule, a son of Roman Ruler, already has enough graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby, but he still has to prove that he can get longer distances, and rate off of the pace. His pedigree doesn't shout distance, but it certainly doesn't say SPRINT either. So the question is will Rule take the lead in tomorrow's race and if so, can he hold off the rest of the field? His credentials say that he should be able to, he broke the track record for a mile at Delta Downs last year when he was only two, and he is proven in slop, and he has shown he can turn back challenges. Of course, I don't think he's ever taken on horses as good as the ones he'll face tomorrow. And he'll have to carry 122 pounds, which is four to six pounds more than the rest of his rivals.
So let's look at his opponents. Uptowncharlybrown looks to have the biggest chance at upsetting Rule. Undefeated in two starts, he broke his maiden last year at this track by nine lengths, and followed that up with a nice win in the Pasco Stakes on January 16th. He's got a lot of things going for him, including his name. Of course, it doesn't quite sound like Secretariat, Assault, Whirlaway, War Admiral, Affirmed, etc. etc., but I like it better than Omaha. Also, he will be carrying four pounds less than Rule.
Schoolyard Dreams, a son of Stephen Got Even, should also make his presence felt. He comes off of a maiden win at Philadelphia Park and an allowance race at this same track. He will carry six pounds less than Rule and two less than Uptowncharlybrown.
African Moon, runner up behind Schoolyard Dreams in the latter's allowance win, could improve off of that race. Tristen's Mambo was a very impressive maiden winner at this track late last year. Silver Craft, who finished fourth in the Pasco Stakes, is back for another go at Uptowncharlybrown, and Middle of the Nite comes off a third to highly regarded Eskendereya in a one mile allowance race. All will carry 116 pounds.
Now, looking at workouts alone, I would say that Uptowncharlybrown and Rule are pretty evenly matched. Both have had several nice workouts since January 24th, Uptowncharlybrown at Tampa Bay Downs and Rule at Palm Meadows Training Center.
So, it appears that there are several capable horses in this race. Here are my final selections. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Rule
3 Tristen's Mambo
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 African Moon
6 Middle of the Nite
7 Silver Craft
I feel that Rule just won't be able to get this distance against the likes of Uptowncharlybrown. I could be wrong, but that's my thought. Tristen's Mambo has a nice win on this track last year, year so it's quite possible that he will run well, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was to win. Schoolyard Dreams looks to have a chance at this race, but I like the other three slightly better. African Moon could definitely run a huge race, but I somehow don't think so. Middle of the Nite is a mystery, and so is Silver Craft. We'll see who's in front at the finish tomorrow.
Next up, I'll discuss the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I). This race was supposed to be run last week, but was canceled due to rain. However, all six horses have returned to race tomorrow, so I'll just repost what I posted last week.
LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is going to be a really great race to see, and a highly influential one at that. Blind Luck, two time grade I winner and Eclipse finalist last year makes her three year old debut. If she wins big tomorrow, and if she continues to win big, perhaps the Kentucky Derby is in her future.
But for now, it is the Las Virgenes Stakes, the first grade I race for three year olds this year. Six fillies have turned out for the race, and all have raced at Santa Anita before. Blind Luck is the obvious favorite, and appears to be almost unstoppable here. I hard to see her being beat, but if anyone can do it, it will be La Nez. She has won over this course before, has a third to the fine colt Caracortado, and has Mike Smith as her rider. In her most recent workout, she went five furlongs in a snappy :59 3/5.
Crisp, a daughter of El Corredor, should also run a fine race. She is coming off a win in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III) on January 10th. Her last workout was also pretty good, going six furlongs in 1:13 4/5.
Also coming from the Santa Ysabel is the runner up Evening Jewel and the third place finisher Switch. Both have better than average shots at grabbing second money, but don't seem to be quite good enough to handle Blind Luck. Still, Switch has turned in some incredible workouts, and could have a huge shot in this race, if she runs like she does in training.
Finally, there is Summer Games, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Of course, I always respect maiden winners, as you never know what they might do after they break their maiden. But, in this case, I would say that Summer Games doesn't quite look up to the task of taking on Blind Luck. Of course, it is wide open for second money, and Summer Games could snatch that away. Or, she could prove me wrong and come away with the victory. We'll find out tomorrow.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 La Nez
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Games
Of course, the results could very well be different from my selections above. It is very possible that La Nez could pull off the upset. The way I see it, any horse here is capable of taking the win, there is no real longshot here. But, unless there is a dead heat, which is unlikely, there can only be one winner. And I think the winner will be Blind Luck.
And those remain my final thoughts on the race. Now for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). It was on the same card as the Las Virgenes, so again, I'll just repost what I posted last week.
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 6, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race was perhaps the hardest to try and figure out for this weekend, and I'm still not sure that I got it right. The two favorites, American Lion and Tiz Chrome, have never started in a two turn race, and every other horse in the field brings credentials that say "I can win this race!".
It is a toss up between American Lion and Tiz Chrome on which will finish in front of the other. They are both by Tiznow, twice winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic and both times by a nose. This says that Tiznow had some stamina, the ability to stay at the top of his game for a long time, and great courage. Hopefully he has passed this on to American Lion and Tiz Chrome. Getting back to those two, it would appear that American Lion has the slight advantage, but Tiz Chrome has the ability as well. American Lion has lost one race, while Tiz Chrome has lost none. On February 1st, both colts worked five furlongs, with Tiz Chrome finishing up in :59 1/5 handily while American Lion went in 1:00 handily. Based on their workouts alone, it would seem that Tiz Chrome is faster, and perhaps he is, but I believe that American Lion can run farther than the former can. Both of their pedigrees are good ones, but I give the slight edge to American Lion in this catagory. American Lion became a grade III winner after winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, while Tiz Chrome won the six an a half furlong Stuka Stakes in 1:14 2/5, which happens to be only 1 2/5 seconds off of the world record set by seven year old Sabertooth five years ago. So, to sum it all up, both of the favorites have the potential to become excellent horses, and both have the talent to win tomorrow.
On the other hand, there are other horses in this race, five to be exact. And they include the undefeated Caracortado, winner of all four of his starts. This is a big step up for him, but at least he's proven on this track at this distance. His pedigree isn't anything to write home about, but there is certainly nothing wrong with it. He could definately threaten the big two.
Also trying to secure his spot in the Triple Crown is Dave in Dixie, who has not raced since finishing a fast closing sixth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). He has only made to starts, but could definately run huge tomorrow and leap on to the Triple Crown Trail. His workouts have been brilliant, including a six furlong workout timed in 1:11 flat, handily.
Domonation, Macias, and Tango Tango complete the field. Domonation seems to be improving with every race, finishing second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes and then getting up for third in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) three weeks ago. Macias showed speed in winning the one mile Eddie Logan on the turf last December, so he could set the pace tomorrow, and if no one challenges him he could very well go wire to wire. Finally, Tango Tango comes off of an optional claiming race a month ago at Golden Gate Fields. I know little about him, but he definately has a shot at the race.
So, my final decisions? I'm not sure. This race is wide open and any one of the seven entries could win. I guess if I was going to place a bet, which I'm not, I would put it on Caracortado. I can't see him being favored, but I also can't see why American Lion and Tiz Chrome are supposed to be better than he is.
So I suppose my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Macias
6 Domonation
7 Tango Tango
Of course, this should be close coming down to the final sixteenth. I expect Tix Chrome to have some good early speed, while American Lion waits just a few lengths off the pace. Macias could also put the pressure on up front, and Tango Tango could be anywhere. I'm going with Caracortado because he's been proven at this track and at this distance. He seems to be more experienced than American Lion and Tiz Chrome. I have selected Dave in Dixie to finish third, but the more I think about it, the more I think he could win. His workouts have been nothing short of spectacular. Finally, I just don't like Tiz Chrome here. He could be in the mix, but I just can't see him winning this race. I could be wrong, but that's my final thought.
However, in the case of the Robert B. Lewis, two of the horses, Macias and Domonation, have decided not to run this week. So the updated list of my selections. .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Tango Tango
Looking strictly at workouts, Tiz Chrome looks the best, his last work being five furlongs in :59 3/5. American Lion looks good as well, going five furlongs in 1:00 2/5, and Caracortado had a nearly identical workout, going five furlongs in 1:00 3/5. Tango Tango worked six furlongs in 1:13 1/5. All four of those works were at Santa Anita Park. Finally, Dave in Dixie worked six furlongs in 1:14 1/5. So, despite all of these workouts, I still think that Caracortado will pull off the surprise win, with American Lion second and Dave in Dixie third. Tiz Chrome will likely set the pace and fade on the final turn. I could be wrong, but those are my final thoughts. (Unless the race gets canceled again. . .)
More updates to come over the next few days. Tomorrow, I shall discuss the Coconut Grove Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where Sassy Image will try once again to make a start on turf. She was supposed to make her three year old debut on turf, but the race was rained on to the dirt. Finally, I'm not sure when the entries for the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) will be announced, but I assume that Dublin will start, and I expect a big effort from him, perhaps enough to move him into the #2 position on my Top Twenty. It's also possible that he could move on to the top of the list, if he runs really well and Buddy's Saint turns in a poor effort in the Fountain of Youth, which hopefully won't happen. It's also possible that the race could draw Dryfly, winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, could come out for the race. If so, it should be a good one.
And last but not least, here is a list of workouts over the past couple days.
February 11th
Coyote Legend worked four furlongs in :47 3/5 handily at Sam Houston Race Park in the mud.
Dublin breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Oaklawn Park.
Sassy Image breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Amen Hallelujah breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Stay Put breezed six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Fair Grounds.
February 12th
Lentenor worked four furlongs in :48 flat handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bulls and Bears breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Northern Giant breezed four furlongs in :51 2/5 at Oaklawn Park.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
posted by Keelerman
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