Just thought I would do a quick update before the Southwest Stakes is run, post my selections, and list some workouts. So far, the weekend has gone great, but I won't get into it all until later this week. For now, I must leap directly into discussing the Southwest Stakes, which could have a huge influence on what happens later along the Triple Crown Trail.
SOUTHWEST STAKES (gr. III) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 9, February 15th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
Momentum is picking up along the Triple Crown Trail, with several great preps on the 13th, and the 2010 debut of Buddy's Saint on the 20th. But the following race could end up being more important than any of them, as it drew a much deeper field than I thought it would.
The race drew ten entries, and all have great potential and a shot at winning the race, but perhaps none will be more thoroughly scrutinized as last year's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner, Dublin, a son of Afleet Alex.
Dublin had some problems last year. After winning the Hopeful, he turned in poor efforts in the grade I Champagne Stakes and the grade III Iroquis Stakes. As it turns out, he was suffering from an entrapped epiglottis, which was corrected at the end of last year. He now looks ready for a huge effort, based off of his workouts and the words of his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, who feels this horse could be something really, really special. Dublin will be ridden for the first time by Terry Thompson, and will carry 117 pounds.
Of, course, Dublin will have plenty of competition, as this is probably the deepest field of three year olds I have seen assembled this year. Dryfly, a son of Jump Start, won the Smarty Jones Stakes last month at this track and at this distance, should turn in a nice race. He will be ridden once again by Calvin Borel, who won the Kentucky Derby last year with 50-1 Mine That Bird and the Preakness Stakes with Rachel Alexandra. He also has a win in the 2007 Kentucky Derby with Street Sense. So, Calvin Borel definitely knows Churchill Downs, which is always a good thing. Dryfly will carry 122 pounds, which is five more than Dublin will carry, and a pretty large disadvantage.
Also having a huge shot at stealing the win is Conveyance, winner of the San Rafael Stakes last month at Santa Anita. The son of Indian Charlie is expected to be on or near the lead, and has the speed to wire the race. But Dryfly runs the same way, and will probably be breathing down his neck the entire race. Only time will tell who will finish in front of the other. Conveyance will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and carry 122 pounds. He will also be making his first start on dirt.
Cardiff Giant and Domonation have also shipped out from California. In his last race, Cardiff Giant finished second in the San Rafael, 1 3/4 lengths behind Conveyance. Domonation finished third in that same race, less than one length behind Cardiff Giant. Neither of them have raced on dirt before.
Mission Impazible, ridden by John Velazquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, could also be in the mix. Carrying only 115 pounds, he comes off of a runner up performance in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 9th. Still, he was only beaten by a head on a sloppy track, so it's possible that he just doesn't like mud. His workouts have been nothing spectacular, but it's possible that he wasn't really being pushed.
The brings us to Cool Bullet, who will be ridden by B. Hernandez. Carrying 117 pounds, he comes into the race off of a fourth place finish in the LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds. His workouts have been rather slow. I suspect that Fair Grounds may be a little slow right now, but it's still something to think about.
Now we move on to Pleasant Storm, who will be ridden by L. McNeil. Carrying 117 pounds, he comes off of a second place finish to Dryfly in the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. Although he has only had one workout since that race, it was a good one, breezing six furlongs in 1:13 1/5. I have seen much faster, but I think that Oaklawn Park is very, very slow right now, so it's probably a much better workout than you would think.
Finally, this brings us to Kitty's Turn and Crider. Both will carry 115 pounds, the former being ridden by Robby Albarado and the latter by L. Quinonez. Crider is trained by Steve Asmussen, who definitely knows what he is doing, while Kitty's Turn is trained by G. Thomas. The latter finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Dryfly and Pleasant Storm, while Crider was fourth in that same race. Both are unknowns, but could surprise everyone. Still, I don't think they are quite on the same level as the rest of the field.
So, my predicted order of finish for the Southwest Stakes is. . .
1 Dublin
2 Dryfly
3 Pleasant Storm
4 Convenyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 Domonation
7 Cariff Giant
8 Kitty's Turn
9 Cool Bullet
10 Crider
Of course, this race is very hard to figure out. So much class, and so evenly matched. I feel confident that Dublin is the best horse in the race, but I'm not sure that I have Dryfly in the right place. He could be any kind of horse. I think that having Calvin Borel as a jockey will help.
I'm also not sure that Pleasant Storm is in the right spot. He certainly has good credentials, but he is still sort of an unknown. I have the feeling that Conveyance isn't going to like Oaklawn as well as he likes Santa Anita, but I could be wrong. Mission Impazible hasn't really impressed me so far, but he could run a huge race. Domonation could run a big one under 115 pounds, but I doubt it. Cariff Giant, Kitty's Turn, Cool Bullet, and Crider just don't appear to be good enough. I could be very wrong, but those are my thoughts. I suspect that Conveyance will set the early pace with Dryfly challenging him from the outside. Dublin will race up close, perhaps three to five lengths off of the lead, with Mission Impazible quite close as well. Pleasant Home will race closer to the back of the pack than the front. Turning for home, it should still be Conveyance with a short lead, but Dryfly will collar him inside the three sixteenth pole. Dublin and Pleasant Home will be closing powerfully on the outside, while Mission Impazible will be making a mild rally. Inside the eighth pole, Dublin will take the lead, but Dryfly will find something extra and battle him to the sixteenth pole, where Dublin draws away to win by a length and a half. Pleasant Home's rally will just fall short of Dryfly by about a half length. Conveyance will hold off Mission Impazible for fourth, while Domonation passes tiring horse in the stretch to snag sixth. Those are my final thoughts.
SAN VINCENTE (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 15th
7 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This should be an interesting race, as there is no real standout. The seven furlong race probably won't produce the winner of a Triple Crown race, but it's possible that one of the runners could find himself along the trail somewhere, and perhaps even make it to the Kentucky Derby. The race drew a field of seven, of which only one entry has won a stakes race. That horse is Classical Slew, who won the Willard Proctor Memorial Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs. He has not raced in six months, but had enough time to prove that he was not at the top of the two year old rankings. Still, he could be in the mix.
Trainer Bob Baffert has two in this race. The first is Tiny Woods, a front running son of Roman Ruler who comes off of a wire-to-wire win in a six furlong allowance race at this same track. His final time was 1:08 4/5. He has huge potential, but he doesn't look like a Triple Crown horse. Of course, if he can get a mile and a half, which seems unlikely, he could turn out to be the next Secretariat.
The second Baffert horse is Quiet Invader, a son of Songandaprayer. He also likes to set the pace, and he has already shown that he can't carry his speed two turns. Therefore, it is fairly obvious that he is not a Triple Crown horse, but he definitely has a shot in this race.
Sidney's Candy, a son of Candy Ride, should also run a huge race. Trained by John Sadler, his workouts have been great. This is a great place for him. He will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
Completing the field are Gilligan, ridden by Tyler Baze, Raging Fit, ridden by Kent Desormeaux, and Runaway Bandido, ridden by A. Quinonez. All could run excellent races, but all are unknowns.
So, my final selections are. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Tiny Woods
3 Gilligan
4 Quiet Invader
5 Classical Slew
6 Runaway Bandido
7 Raging Wit
I could be wrong, but I think that Sidney's Candy is the best horse in the race. He has the potential to turn into a high caliber Triple Crown horse. I would not be surprised at all to see him in the Kentucky Derby. Tiny Woods seems to be just slightly too much of a sprinter, and with Quiet Invader also in the race, it's possible that they could run each other into the ground. Seeing that they're both trained by Bob Baffert, I doubt he'll let that happen, but it's always possible. Gilligan could also run a huge race, and could possibly pull off the upset. Classical Slew doesn't look good enough, while Runaway Bandido and Raging Wit just look outclassed. I imagine that the race will unfold with Tiny Woods and Quiet Invader being rushed up to battle for the early lead, while Sidney's Candy will break cleanly and wait in third, two to three lengths behind them. Classical Slew will sit in fourth, while Runaway Bandido, Raging Wit, and Gilligan all wait bunched together at the back of the pack. About five sixteenths from home, Quiet Invader will give in and begin his retreat, leaving Tiny Woods alone on the lead. Meanwhile, Sidney's Candy will make a strong move in the three path to blow into the lead nearing the eighth pole. Gilligan will rally strongly from the rear, but much too late to threaten the top two. Classical Slew will be unable to make a serious move, while Runaway Bandido and Raging Wit will never rally. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO LOOK OUT FOR
Of course, the two races discussed above are not the only good races over the next few days. Also racing on the fifteenth is Thank U Philippe, who runs in the OBS Championship (Colts and Geldings Division) Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth. Coming off of a fourth to Winslow Homer, Jackson Bend, and William's Kitten on the Holy Bull after setting the pace, he should be able to run well here. However, he will be starting only 23 days after his last race, and it's possible it left him a little tired. We'll see.
Family Holiday, third behind General Maximus and Afleet Express in an allowance race just over two weeks ago, will try another allowance race on the 17th. However, this race will be only five furlongs, and it will be on the turf. Several big question marks there, but we'll see how he does.
Peace at Dawn is scheduled to run in the same race as Family Holiday. He comes off of a fourth place finish behind General Maximus, Afleet Express, and Family Holiday in the same allowance race as before. He could run a good race too.
Lentenor, a full brother to 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, is set to go in a nine furlong allowance race on the turf at Gulfstream Park. He should be able to run a good one, and should be able to win without a lot of trouble. He will carry top weight of 124 pounds.
Outquest, whom I have followed for a couple of months now, is set to go in a claiming race at Laurel Park. His workouts have been fine, not great. I don't think he will be favored, and I sort of don't think he'll run that well. But he could prove me wrong.
Finally, Odysseus is entered to run in an allowance optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downson the 17th. His workouts have been. . . not great. Still, he is coming off of a win, and he could very well win the race and step up into a stakes race soon afterwards. I don't think he'll be ready for the Kentucky Derby, but he is still one to watch for the Belmont Stakes.
And last but not least, here is a list of workouts over the past couple days.
February 13th
Jackson Bend worked four furlongs in :47 flat handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Ice Box worked five furlongs in 1:01 flat handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Our Dark Knight worked four furlongs in :47 1/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Hotep breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat at Fair Grounds.
Wordly breezed five furlongs in 1:03 flat at Fair Grounds.
Family Holiday breezed three furlongs in :37 flat at Calder Race Course.
In The Paint breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat at Keeneland.
Outlaw Man worked four furlongs in :48 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
General Maximus breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5 at Goldmark.
February 14th
Aikenite worked 1:00 3/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Super Saver worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bickersons worked four furlongs in :48 flat handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Prince Will Am I worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Buddy's Saint breezed six furlongs in 1:13 2/5 at Gulfstream Park.
She Be Wild breezed four furlongs in :50 2/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Odysseus worked five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Soaring Empire worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Eskendereya worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Discreetly Mine worked four furlongs in :48 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Fly Down worked four furlongs in :48 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
A Little Warm worked four furlongs in :47 2/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Connemara worked four furlongs in :49 flat handily at Santa Anita Park.
Backtalk breezed six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 at Fair Grounds.
Maximus Ruler breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Fair Grounds.
The Program worked five furlongs in :59 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Lookin at Lucky worked four furlongs in :48 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Make Music for Me worked six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
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