TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010

(This was actually supposed to be posted yesterday, Feb 6th--sorry for the delay!)

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010

Well, it's hard to believe that it's been almost two weeks since a graded stakes race for three year old colts was run. But now, a couple of good Triple Crown Preps have finally arrived, along with the first grade I stakes for three year old fillies. It's going to be an exciting weekend, and to begin, I'll dive into the details of each prep, race by race, starting with the Whirlaway Stakes in New York.

WHIRLAWAY STAKES ---- Aqueduct, Race 3, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Inner dirt track)

The big question in this race is can Eightyfiveinafifty, the morning line favorite, stretch out to two turns, going a mile and a sixteenth against winners for the first time. Eightyfiveinafifty, a son of Forest Camp, broke his maiden on January 9th at this same track going six furlongs. Normally, this wouldn't be any big deal, except that he won by 17 1/4 lengths. Any horse who can win any race by that much should be watched closely.

If Eightyfiveinafifty does succeed in taking Saturday's race, he could become a very dangerous horse to deal with. If he can carry his blazing speed two turns, he could have New York all to himself. If he does win, he will head to the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) followed by the Wood Memorial (gr. I) as final preps for the Triple Crown. Of course, he still has to win on Saturday. His workouts say that he's ready, his most recent being a three furlongs breeze where he went in :34 1/5. Still, he'll have plenty of competition tomorrow. Let's see who his opponents are. . .

Five horses have turned out to try and stop him. They are, in alphabetical order, Afleet Again, Papa's Nice Cat, Peppi Knows, Three Day Rush, and Turf Melody.

Afleet Again, a son of Afleet Alex, was supplemented into the race. He is owned by Cash is King Stable, the same stable that raced Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, and third in the Kentucky Derby. Wouldn't it be nice if Cash is King could win another Triple Crown race with a son of Afleet Alex? Perhaps Afleet Again will win the Kentucky Derby, the race his sire couldn't quite capture.

Of course, Afleet Again comes with his own credentials. He began 2010 with a fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct, then shipped to Philidelphia Park and won an allowance race on January 17th, just fifteen days after the Count Fleet. Now, twenty days later, he turns out again to make his third start in five weeks. If he wins on Saturday, he will have proven that he can race three times in five weeks, just as the Triple Crown demands. So, should Afleet Again win, it will definately put him on the right track for the Triple Crown, and set him up perfectly for the Gotham Stakes. His workouts have also been excellent, his most recent being a four furlong breeze in :48 flat at Philidelphia Park. He should be ready.

Contender number two is Papa's Nice Cat, a son of One Nice Cat who is technically making his three year old debut. His last race was a runner up performance at Aqueduct on December 31st, so it was really more like his first start at three. He has been working out at Belmont Park, his most recent work being a four furlong breeze where he went :50 flat. Not quite the works that Afleet Again and Eightyfiveinafifty have been turning in, but solid nonetheless.

Contender number three is Peppi Knows, a gelding by Stephen Got Even, who has not raced since finishing second to Buddy's Saint in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct. So he has been proven over this track, and at two turns. His workouts have been unlike anything I've seen lately. His last two have been at one mile, both at Penn National in Pennsylvania. Still, they have been good works, and prior to them he worked five furlongs in :59 2/5 handily. So Peppi Knows seems ready to run a huge race.

Contender number four is Three Day Rush, a son of Harlan's Holiday who comes off of a six furlong allowance victory on January 9th. Prior to that he faded to finish fifth in the Iroquois (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. His workouts have been average workouts, nothing spectacular. It's possible that he may challenge Eightyfiveinafifty in the early going.

Contender number five, the last one, is Turf Melody, a son of Maria's Mon. Turf Melody has made eight starts already, which includes a win in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park to close out his two year old season. In his last race, he finished sixth in the grade III LeComte at Fair Grounds. His last three workouts were all at five furlongs, all have been 1:02 or slower, and he has had none since the LeComte. Not great workouts, but perhaps that was the plan.

Now that I've rattled off all of the entries, I shall give out my selections for the race. In the order I think they will finish. . .

1 Eightyfiveinafifty
2 Afleet Again
3 Peppi Knows
4 Three Day Rush
5 Turf Melody
6 Papa's Nice Cat

It appears to me that Eightyfiveinafifty is the deserving favorite, and that he should be able to carry his speed the over the distance. I have selected Afleet Again to finish second, due partly to his workouts. Peppi Knows certainly has class, finishing second to Buddy's Saint, and he could very well win this race. Three Day Rush will likely race close to the lead and tire in the final furlong, while Turf Melody may just not be good enough. Finally, Papa's Nice Cat will most likely be towards the rear at the conclusion of the race, not because he is a bad horse, but because the others seem to be just a bit better. Still, he's run well at this track, so it is very possible that he could surprise me and run very well. That concludes my analysis on the Whirlaway Stakes. Now I shall move on to the. . .

ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)

This race was perhaps the hardest to try and figure out for this weekend, and I'm still not sure that I got it right. The two favorites, American Lion and Tiz Chrome, have never started in a two turn race, and every other horse in the field brings credentials that say "I can win this race!".

It is a toss up between American Lion and Tiz Chrome on which will finish in front of the other. They are both by Tiznow, twice winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic and both times by a nose. This says that Tiznow had some stamina, the ability to stay at the top of his game for a long time, and great courage. Hopefully he has passed this on to American Lion and Tiz Chrome. Getting back to those two, it would appear that American Lion has the slight advantage, but Tiz Chrome has the ability as well. American Lion has lost one race, while Tiz Chrome has lost none. On February 1st, both colts worked five furlongs, with Tiz Chrome finishing up in :59 1/5 handily while American Lion went in 1:00 handily. Based on their workouts alone, it would seem that Tiz Chrome is faster, and perhaps he is, but I believe that American Lion can run farther than the former can. Both of their pedigrees are good ones, but I give the slight edge to American Lion in this catagory. American Lion became a grade III winner after winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, while Tiz Chrome won the six and a half furlong Stuka Stakes in 1:14 2/5, which happens to be only 1 2/5 seconds off of the world record set by seven year old Sabertooth five years ago. So, to sum it all up, both of the favorites have the potential to become excellent horses, and both have the talent to win tomorrow.

On the other hand, there are other horses in this race, five to be exact. And they include the undefeated Caracortado, winner of all four of his starts. This is a big step up for him, but at least he's proven on this track at this distance. His pedigree isn't anything to write home about, but there is certainly nothing wrong with it. He could definitely threaten the big two.

Also trying to secure his spot in the Triple Crown is Dave in Dixie, who has not raced since finishing a fast closing sixth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). He has only made two starts, but could definitely run huge tomorrow and leap on to the Triple Crown Trail. His workouts have been brilliant, including a six furlong workout timed in 1:11 flat, handily.

Domonation, Macias, and Tango Tango complete the field. Domonation seems to be improving with every race, finishing second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes and then getting up for third in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) three weeks ago. Macias showed speed in winning the one mile Eddie Logan on the turf last December, so he could set the pace tomorrow, and if no one challenges him he could very well go wire to wire. Finally, Tango Tango comes off of an optional claiming race a month ago at Golden Gate Fields. I know little about him, but he definitely has a shot at the race.

So, my final decisions? I'm not sure. This race is wide open and any one of the seven entries could win. I guess if I was going to place a bet, which I'm not, I would put it on Caracortado. I can't see him being favored, but I also can't see why American Lion and Tiz Chrome are supposed to be better than he is.

So I suppose my final selections are. . .

1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Macias
6 Domonation
7 Tango Tango

Of course, this should be close coming down to the final sixteenth. I expect Tix Chrome to have some good early speed, while American Lion waits just a few lengths off the pace. Macias could also put the pressure on up front, and Tango Tango could be anywhere. I'm going with Caracortado because he's been proven at this track and at this distance. He seems to be more experienced than American Lion and Tiz Chrome. I have selected Dave in Dixie to finish third, but the more I think about it, the more I think he could win. His workouts have been nothing short of spectacular. Finally, I just don't like Tiz Chrome here. He could be in the mix, but I just can't see him winning this race. I could be wrong, but that's my final thought.

LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)

This is going to be a really great race to see, and a highly influential one at that. Blind Luck, two time grade I winner and Eclipse finalist last year makes her three year old debut. If she wins big tomorrow, and if she continues to win big, perhaps the Kentucky Derby is in her future.

But for now, it is the Las Virgenes Stakes, the first grade I race for three year olds this year. Six fillies have turned out for the race, and all have raced at Santa Anita before. Blind Luck is the obvious favorite, and appears to be almost unstoppable here. It’s hard to see her being beat, but if anyone can do it, it will be La Nez. She has won over this course before, has a third to the fine colt Caracortado, and has Mike Smith as her rider. In her most recent workout, she went five furlongs in a snappy :59 3/5.

Crisp, a daughter of El Corredor, should also run a fine race. She is coming off a win in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III) on January 10th. Her last workout was also pretty good, going six furlongs in 1:13 4/5.

Also coming from the Santa Ysabel is the runner up Evening Jewel and the third place finisher Switch. Both have better than average shots at grabbing second money, but don't seem to be quite good enough to handle Blind Luck. Still, Switch has turned in some incredible workouts, and could have a huge shot in this race, if she runs like she does in training.

Finally, there is Summer Games, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Of course, I always respect maiden winners, as you never know what they might do after they break their maiden. But, in this case, I would say that Summer Games doesn't quite look up to the task of taking on Blind Luck. Of course, it's wide open for second money, and Summer Games could snatch that away. Or, she could prove me wrong and come away with the victory. We'll find out tomorrow.

So my final selections are. . .

1 Blind Luck
2 La Nez
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Game

Of course, the results could very well be different from my selections above. It is very possible that La Nez could pull off the upset. The way I see it, any horse here is capable of taking the win, there is no real longshot here. But, unless there is a dead heat, which is unlikely, there can only be one winner. And I think the winner will be Blind Luck.

OTHER RACES OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND

Of course, the three races above aren't the only race this Saturday. There are many more good races, some of them for three year old colts.

The first race I will discuss is the Hallandale Beach Stakes on February 7th. The big name here is Interactif, a son of Broken Vow who was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and winner of two grade III races on the turf last year. His pedigree screams stamina, but there is a question as to whether he likes dirt. Of course, that will not be a concern on Sunday for the Hallandale Beach Stakes is run on the turf, but it could be a concern if Interactif is to try and become a Triple Crown horse. He will be ridden by regular rider Kent Desormeaux.

Of course, Interactif is not the only horse in the race. Seven additional horses have turned out to challenge him, and several of them look like they could steal the victory. Cat Park, a son of Tale of the Cat, is an allowance race winner and has placed in a couple of graded stakes on the turf. Dean's Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy, is a stakes winner on the turf, although he doesn't seem to be quite as good as Interactif, finishing behind him on two different occasions. However, Cat Park will carry six pounds less than Interactif, and Dean's Kitten will carry two less. Not a huge difference, but it always helps.

Bim Bam, a son of Deputy Wild Cat, could also have a shot at the race. Since he switched to turf races, he has won the Arthur Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last November and finished second in the Dania Beach Stakes on January 16th. Carrying 120 pounds, he could be in the mix.

Finally, we have Asphalt, Thunder Brew, Lucas Brady, and Our Champion. Of these, I would say that Asphalt has had the best workouts, Thunder Brew and Lucas Brady could run a big race, and Our Champion doesn't look quite good enough here. So, my final thoughts on this race are that Interactif looks like a solid favorite, while Cat Park, Bim Bam, and Asphalt could all run huge. If I was to bet a longshot, I would go with Asphalt. But I really like Interactif here.

Also on Saturday is a $48,000 allowance at Gulfstream Park. The race drew eight entries, with Overcommunication and Wildcat Frankie looking like the two big names. Rickyontherun, Enigmatic, Soldier Field, Bank the Eight, Barry's Money, and Tuvia's Force complete the field. Wildcat Frankie is coming off a second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this same track, so he looks to be the deserving favorite. Overcommunication is a promising maiden winner who has the potential to step up to the task. His workouts have also been pretty good. Based off his works, Tuvia's Force could run a big one, and Bank the Eight looks good too. This race could mean absolutely nothing, but it's always good to watch those maiden winners. Final selection: Overcommunication, with Wildcat Frankie to finish second.

Finally, here is a list of horses who worked out over the past few days.

February 4th

D'Funnybone breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Tempted to Tapit went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Conveyance went six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.

February 5th

Fly Down breezed four furlongs in 50:00 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Soaring Empire went five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Uptowncharlybrown breezed six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Amen Hallelujah breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Turbo Speed breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 at Penn National.

February 6th

Jackson Bend went four furlongs in :47 1/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bulls and Bears went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
A Little Warm breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Lentenor went three furlongs in :36 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Maximus Ruler breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Homeboykris went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
William's Kitten breezed four furlongs in :48 flat at Gulfstream Park.
Noble's Promise breezed three furlongs in :37 flat at Gulfstream Park.

posted by Keelerman