Things are really starting to get hot along the Triple Crown Trail. Last week, the Florida Derby was run. This week, the Lane's End Stakes, the Louisiana Derby, the UAE Derby in Dubai, and the Sunland Derby are all going to be influential prep races that will likely turn up a sleeper or two. We're going to thoroughly examine several races, but to begin this post, I shall recap what happened last week, beginning with the Florida Derby.
Wow. . . what an upset. Well, I guess I'm not really surprised. I guessed that Rule was not going to go a mile and an eighth in this company, and that someone was going to catch him inside the final eighth. I figured that Miner's Reserve was going to be some sort of Big Brown type horse who comes from the allowance ranks to grab a grade I and launch himself into the Derby picture. Well, Miner's Reserve didn't quite get it done, but I had the right idea.
The winner was Ice Box. The son of Pulpit tried four times to break his maiden last year, finally getting the job done on the fourth attempt. In January, he made his three year old debut in an allowance race, winning by a half length, with Pleasant Prince finishing second. Then he made a big move in the Fountain of Youth before fading in the drive after a tough trip and finishing fifth, twelve lengths behind victorious Eskendereya.
That brought him to the Florida Derby, and boy did he put on a show. Sitting last for six furlongs, he began his bid with three furlongs to go and got home a nose in front of his old friend Pleasant Prince. With Ice Box winning at almost 21-1, and Pleasant Prince finishing second at 29-1, a $2.00 exacta paid an incredible $509.60. A $1 trifecta paid $1,222.90, while the Superfecta paid a ridiculous $15,228.10. Congratulations to anyone who hit it.
Getting back to the race, it seemed to defy logic. Everyone expected Rule to be the pace setter, and he was. . . sort of. However, for nearly a mile, he was second, a head behind Pulsion, who has always been a closer. For a solid mile those two were heads apart, cutting out solid fractions of :23 1/5, :46 2/5, and 1:10 3/5. With those fractions, I'm sort of surprised that Rule held third, four and a half lengths clear of Lentenor. As for my official selection, Miner's Reserve, he ran nicely but wide for about five furlongs and then steadily dropped back to end up tenth. So much for the Big Brown angle.
So here are the results. . .
1 Ice Box
2 Pleasant Prince
3 Rule
4 Lentenor
5 First Dude
6 Pulsion
7 Game On Dude
8 Soaring Empire
9 Radiohead
10 Miner's Reserve
11 Best Actor
. . . versus my selections…
1 Miner's Reserve
2 Lentenor
3 Rule
4 Soaring Empire
5 Radiohead
6 Game On Dude
7 First Dude
8 Ice Box
9 Pulsion
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Best Actor
So, things didn't quite go the way I though they would. It is obvious that Miner's Reserve was not ready for the level of competition. Lentenor ran a great race considering the huge step up in class he took, but it's hats off to Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, who are beginning to develop perhaps just a bit of a rivalry. . .
OTHER RACE RESULTS
As usual, there were other great races that I discussed briefly last week that could affect the outcome of the Triple Crown. So of course, I should mention the results, beginning with the seven furlong Swale Stakes.
On the undercard of the Florida Derby, the heavy favorite was D' Funnybone, who ran like a heavy favorite. Sitting right behind Hear Ye Hear Ye after a quarter of a mile, he quickly took the lead and opened up a two and a half length advantage turning for home. However, Ibboyee made him earn it, closing ground late and falling just over a length short of D' Funnybone. Privilaged, at 35-1, took third, while Hear Ye Hear Ye ended up fourth. D' Funnybone is being pointed to the Preakness Stakes. It's hard to say if he will have any success there, but we'll find out in about seven weeks.
Then there was the six furlong Cicada Stakes at Aqueduct. Postponed one week due to bad weather, the heavy favorite was Bickersons. Female Drama was respected, as was Liam's Dream. I didn't like Bickersons here, although I couldn't really say why. I just had a feeling that this wasn't her day. I liked Liam's Dream.
So how pleasing it was when Liam's Dream claimed a length and a half victory! The daughter of Saint Liam raced towards the back of the pack early, while Southern Truth and Bickersons dueled for the early lead. Approaching the homestretch, Liam's Dream burst through on the rail to grab her victory, while Romantic Hideaway rallied for second. Indian Burn came home third after making a six wide move, Fuzzy Britches finished fourth, Southern Truth fifth, and Bickersons was sixth, finishing in front of only Female Drama. I'm not really sure what to think of Bickersons, but it's obvious to me that Liam's Dream is one to watch on the way to the Kentucky Oaks.
Finally, we come to the nine furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes, also on the undercard of the Florida Derby. The slightest of favorites was Christine Daae, with Amen Hallelujah the second choice. I greatly respected Joanie's Catch, despite her odds of 12-1, but didn't really like Switch. I felt that Devil May Care might have a shot at winning the race, but I didn't like her as much as I liked Amen Hallelujah.
Who do you think won? Devil May Care, of course. And rather easily in fact, by nearly three lengths. Amen Hallelujah came in second, five lengths in front of Joanie's Catch. Switch finished fourth, with Christine Daae in fifth, beaten almost fourteen lengths by the winner. Danny's Friend was another twenty seven lengths back. So, Devil May Care has made it very clear that she has Kentucky Oaks potential, while Amen Hallelujah also cemented her reputation. Joanie's Catch is definitely one to watch, while I'm not sure what to think of Christine Daae. She may be able to rebound off of this effort, but when the real running began today, she just didn't have what it takes. Interestingly, Devil May Care completely her nine furlongs slightly faster than Ice Box did in the Florida Derby four races later. Just thought I'd mention it, perhaps Devil May Care will turn out to be the next Rachel Alexandra!
Now I believe that it is time to discuss what is going to happen this week, beginning with the. . .
LOUISIANA DERBY (gr. II) ---- Fair Grounds, Race 10, March 27th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
With only five weeks left before the Kentucky Derby, the battle for first and second in this race is very important. The runners in this race will not be getting another opportunity to secure graded earnings. Of course, they can always go to the Preakness Stakes, or the Belmont Stakes, but there is only one Kentucky Derby. And due to this race's position on the calendar, five weeks until the Derby, it is possibly the best Kentucky Derby prep time wise. Let's take a look at who's running. . .
The number one horse is Hotep. The son of A.P. Indy has won two of five starts, but has yet to show any great talent against this level of competition. He comes into tomorrow’s race off of a tenth place finish in the Risen Star, beaten ten and a half lengths by Discreetly Mine. He will carry 122 pounds, and will be ridden by P. Husbands.
Then there is the number two horse, Discreetly Mine. The son of Unbridled’s Song has shown some ability, but comes into the race off of a fourth place finish behind Conveyance, Dublin, and Cardiff Giant in the Southwest Stakes last month. He will likely be a major contender here tomorrow, and will be ridden by R. Maragh.
Another major contender is Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft has really been improving, and comes into the Louisiana Derby off of a win in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park where he defeated First Dude by a head. First Dude went on to finish fifth in the Florida Derby. Ridden tomorrow by Jose Lezcano, this will be his first try at a stakes race. As he is a late closer, he will need a solid pace up front if he is to present his rally.
But we can’t ignore the number four horse The Program. The son of Harlan’s Holiday comes off of a third place finish behind Alphie’s Bet and Setsuko in the Sham Stakes three weeks ago. He has already started eight times, and this will be his first start outside of California. I think that he is ready to run a huge race. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani. I think that his morning line odds of 10-1 are a little high. I think that he has a good shot at finishing in the top three.
Then there is the number five horse A Little Warm. The son of Stormin Fever has morning line odds of 4-1, but I think that he has a huge chance at winning tomorrow. There are still questions about how far he can go, but if stamina is no problem, he’ll be right there. He comes into the Louisiana Derby off of a second place finish to D’ Funnybone in the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes. Prior to that, he won the six furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes. This will be his longest race to date. He will be ridden by D. Cohen.
This brings us to the number six horse Ron the Greek. The son of Full Mandate won the grade III Lecomte Stakes at this track before finishing sixth in the Risen Star Stakes, despite closing fast after incredibly slow fractions. If the pace is decent here tomorrow, he’ll be flying late. I’m confident that he is ready for a huge effort. He will be ridden by J. Graham.
But we cannot forget the number seven horse, Discreetly Mine. The son of Mineshaft had been racing against, and defeating, many good horses last year, beating Super Saver and Aspire while finishing behind the likes of Dublin, D’ Funnybone, and Homeboykris. He established himself as a major Triple Crown contender with a win in the mile and a sixteenth Risen Star Stakes at this track, although he was able to get away with a ridiculously slow pace in that race while racing unchallenged on the lead. It’s tough to say how well he will run if the pace is hot, but it is believed that he can rate off the pace if necessary. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow.
Then there is the number eight horse Island Soul. The son of Perfect Soul comes into the Louisiana Derby off of a runner up performance behind Fast Alex in an allowance optional claiming race at this same track. He doesn’t seem to be quite on the same level as some of the other entries here tomorrow, but with Robby Albarado in the saddle, you never know.
But don’t forget the number nine horse Stay Put. The son of Broken Vow ran fifth in the Risen Star, but like Ron the Greek, closed a lot of ground despite the slow pace. If the pace is a good one tomorrow, he’ll be coming late. He will be ridden by H. Theriot.
Now we come to the number ten horse, Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow comes into tomorrow’s race off of an eighth place finish behind Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, he has been very inconsistent, sometimes running great, sometimes running terrible. However, his workouts have been very sharp, and he may be coming into this race fit and ready for a huge effort. He will likely set the pace tomorrow, and will probably make sure that Discreetly Mine doesn’t go too slow early on.
This brings us to the number eleven horse, Mister Marti Gras. This is a big step up in class for him, but he may be a contender if the pace is fast. This late closing son of Belong to Me will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. Who knows? This colt could be the one who launches himself into the Triple Crown picture late.
Then there is the number twelve horse Backtrack. The son of Grand Slam is undefeated in two starts so far, but has never started at any distance other than six furlongs. Still, he has the potential to run a big one, and is not to be ignored. He might just get there. He will be ridden by S. Sellers.
Finally, we come to the number thirteen horse Drosselmeyer. The third choice on the morning line odds, I would not be surprised if he is sent off as the favorite. The son of Distorted Humor comes into the Lousiana Derby off of a fourth place finish behind Discreetly Mine, Tempted to Tapit, and Northern Giant in the Risen Start Stakes, but this closer, like every other in that race, was unable to close into the slow pace. I think he is ready to run a good race, but perhaps not a winning one. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.
So, here are my selections. . .
1 Ron the Greek
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 Stay Put
6 The Program
7 A Little Warm
8 Backtrack
9 Mission Impazible
10 Mister Marti Gras
11 Wow Wow Wow
12 Island Soul
13 Hotep
Now, this was a really tough race to figure out. It was very similar to the Florida Derby, with many unproven colts to try and figure out. Now, I believe that Ron the Greek is ready to rebound off of his sixth place finish in the Risen Star Stakes, partly because the pace is going to be faster tomorrow and partly because I think he is improving. Discreetly Mine has shown talent, and I think that he is a very good three year old, but I just don’t think that he is going to completely get this distance against this field. It should be close, but that’s what I think. Drosselmeyer should be a huge contender, but he will have to break from post thirteen, which is going to make things hard for him. I can’t believe that I’m putting The Program in the sixth spot, because I think that he is ready to run the race of his life, but I’m concerned that he just isn’t good enough. If I was going to go with a longshot to win the race, I would pick Backtrack. With morning line odds of 30-1, I think he is capable of running a winning race. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
I’m going to make this quick because I’m low on time, but there are many other great Triple Crown prep races this week, including the Lane’s End Stakes, which I will briefly discuss right now.
The nine furlong Lane’s End Stakes has drawn several great runners, all with great potential. To begin with, there is the heavy favorite, Connemara. He comes into the race off of a win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields and is a potential sleeper on the Triple Crown Trail. I think that he is the deserving favorite and will run a great race tomorrow. Other top contenders include Double’s Partner, who beat Florida Derby fourth place finisher Lentenor last time out, Ranger Heartly, wire-to-wire winner of the California Derby, Outlaw Man, fourth in the Sham Stakes earlier this month, Northern Giant, third in the Risen Star Stakes last month, Letsgetitonmon, and Vow to Wager, winner of the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last month via disqualification. It should be a great race, and I think that a major Triple Crown contender could come from this race. Watch Northern Giant carefully!
Then there is the UAE Derby out in Dubai. It’s about the same distance as the Preakness Stakes, and with a two million dollar purse, it might just send out a Kentucky Derby contender.
Now, I haven’t heard of every entry in the race, but I really like Mendip, and I respect Frozen Power and Musir. It should be a great race.
But don’t forget the the Sunland Derby in New Mexico. Graded for the first time ever, the race, with its $800,000 purse, has drawn a very nice field with several good contenders. The heavy morning line favorite is Conveyance, with Tempted to Tapit and Nacho Friend given some respect as well. Howver, I feel that the 8-1 fifth choice, Stormin Saint, has an excellent shot at securing the win. He comes into the race off of a narrow loss in the Borderland Derby, but was placed first via disqualification of the “winner”. It should be a great race. Just remember that Mine That Bird finished fourth here last year before heading to Kentucky. . .
Finally, I should mention that the Dubai World Cup is tomorrow, along with all of the undercard races. Of course, I’ll be cheering on Gio Ponti in his quest to tackle Curlin’s North American earnings record, and I’ll be really cheering for Presious Passion in the Dubia Sheema Classic.
It’s going to be a great weekend of racing. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 27, 2010
THE TWENTY, as of March 22nd, 2010
1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
It's still a toss up between the Arkansas Derby and the Santa Anita Derby. Personally, I would like to see him prep once again on dirt, but the Santa Anita Derby has slightly better timing.
2. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
His connections aren't sure if they should run in the Wood Memorial or train up to the Kentucky Derby. Going into the Derby off of a seven week layoff doesn't sound like a great idea, but it's hard to say for sure.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I still think that he is going to run big in the Kentucky Derby. He reminds me of Giacomo, never winning any of his prep races, but running the race of his life when it really mattered. I think Dublin can do the same.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
His pedigree says that he will be a major contender in the Triple Crown, but there's just something about him that bothers me. He ran so huge in the Fountain of Youth that he couldn't possibly match that effort. Unless of course, he is a superhorse.
5 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
I've liked this colt for several months, and I think that he is going to run huge in the Santa Anita Derby. He hasn’t worked out since his last race, but I’m sure he’ll be ready.
6. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
The plan for her is to run in the Fantasy Stakes on April 2nd and then go on to the Kentucky Oaks. I am confident that she is the best three year old filly around, and that she is capable of defeating just about any three year old colt in the United States.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
All he needs to do is run a good race in the Wood Memorial and he will be one of the favorites for the Triple Crown. I love the move he made to take the lead in the Gotham.
8. ICE BOX
His run in the Florida Derby was very impressive, even though he had a lot of pace to chase. He has made it very clear that he is to be considered.
9. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
It’s hard to say if he can get the Triple Crown distances, but he is obviously a very classy colt. Finishing second, a head behind Lookin at Lucky, is nothing to sneeze at.
10. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
One of the many colts this year who seems to need the lead. His pedigree says he can go a mile and a quarter, but I'm still left wondering if he actually can.
11. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
His pedigree says he can go just about any distance, but we still don't know how good he is on dirt. I like this colt a lot, but something about him bothers me.
12. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
He's entered to run in the Louisiana Derby this Saturday. There's a tough field lined up to face him, but if he gets a good fast pace to chase, he can get there. His chances at the Kentucky Derby depend on how fast they go up front.
13. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
This is one colt that seems to be under the radar. Who knows? He may be Todd Pletcher's best shot at the Kentucky Derby. With so many front runners heading for the Triple Crown, it's impossible to imagine how fast they might go. Which would be just fine for this colt.
14. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
The pace he ran in the San Felipe wasn't exactly testing, but it was a good effort all the same. He won't be going that slow in the Kentucky Derby, but perhaps he is a truly good front runner.
15. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
Well, he wasn't entered in the Louisiana Derby, so I'm hoping that he goes for the Wood Memorial. I don't think that the Arkansas Derby is the right place for him, but I'm sure Bob Baffert will do the right thing.
16. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
As I was worried, he just couldn't go the Florida Derby distance after setting very trying fractions. He just got too tired. It's hard to say what he might be able to do in the Kentucky Derby, but I don't think he can go the distance.
17. ALPHIE'S BET Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie, by Candi's Gold Alexis Barba
He could be a sleeper, and he may be one of the many three year old stakes winners who do nothing after the Kentucky Derby. I'm going to wait for the Santa Anita Derby before I make a final decision.
18. MENDIP Harlan's Holiday - Well Spring, by Coronado Quest
He'll be running in less than a week, and then we will know if he is to be considered in the Triple Crown. Stablemate Vale of York is off the Triple Crown Trail and won't be running in the UAE Derby, so that will make it a bit easier for Mendip.
19. BACKTALK Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed Thomas M. Amoss
He was not entered in the Louisiana Derby, but I'm sure he will get a shot at making the Triple Crown. I've also felt that he has talent, and he may finally get a chance to prove it on the big stage.
20. PLEASANT PRINCE
I meant to put him on my "Watch Very Closely" list last week but just plain forgot. He ran a great race in the Florida Derby, being beaten only by a nose, and may actually be better than the winner. We'll find out more in the Kentucky Derby.
-Keelerman
It's still a toss up between the Arkansas Derby and the Santa Anita Derby. Personally, I would like to see him prep once again on dirt, but the Santa Anita Derby has slightly better timing.
2. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
His connections aren't sure if they should run in the Wood Memorial or train up to the Kentucky Derby. Going into the Derby off of a seven week layoff doesn't sound like a great idea, but it's hard to say for sure.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I still think that he is going to run big in the Kentucky Derby. He reminds me of Giacomo, never winning any of his prep races, but running the race of his life when it really mattered. I think Dublin can do the same.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
His pedigree says that he will be a major contender in the Triple Crown, but there's just something about him that bothers me. He ran so huge in the Fountain of Youth that he couldn't possibly match that effort. Unless of course, he is a superhorse.
5 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
I've liked this colt for several months, and I think that he is going to run huge in the Santa Anita Derby. He hasn’t worked out since his last race, but I’m sure he’ll be ready.
6. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
The plan for her is to run in the Fantasy Stakes on April 2nd and then go on to the Kentucky Oaks. I am confident that she is the best three year old filly around, and that she is capable of defeating just about any three year old colt in the United States.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
All he needs to do is run a good race in the Wood Memorial and he will be one of the favorites for the Triple Crown. I love the move he made to take the lead in the Gotham.
8. ICE BOX
His run in the Florida Derby was very impressive, even though he had a lot of pace to chase. He has made it very clear that he is to be considered.
9. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
It’s hard to say if he can get the Triple Crown distances, but he is obviously a very classy colt. Finishing second, a head behind Lookin at Lucky, is nothing to sneeze at.
10. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
One of the many colts this year who seems to need the lead. His pedigree says he can go a mile and a quarter, but I'm still left wondering if he actually can.
11. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
His pedigree says he can go just about any distance, but we still don't know how good he is on dirt. I like this colt a lot, but something about him bothers me.
12. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
He's entered to run in the Louisiana Derby this Saturday. There's a tough field lined up to face him, but if he gets a good fast pace to chase, he can get there. His chances at the Kentucky Derby depend on how fast they go up front.
13. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
This is one colt that seems to be under the radar. Who knows? He may be Todd Pletcher's best shot at the Kentucky Derby. With so many front runners heading for the Triple Crown, it's impossible to imagine how fast they might go. Which would be just fine for this colt.
14. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
The pace he ran in the San Felipe wasn't exactly testing, but it was a good effort all the same. He won't be going that slow in the Kentucky Derby, but perhaps he is a truly good front runner.
15. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
Well, he wasn't entered in the Louisiana Derby, so I'm hoping that he goes for the Wood Memorial. I don't think that the Arkansas Derby is the right place for him, but I'm sure Bob Baffert will do the right thing.
16. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
As I was worried, he just couldn't go the Florida Derby distance after setting very trying fractions. He just got too tired. It's hard to say what he might be able to do in the Kentucky Derby, but I don't think he can go the distance.
17. ALPHIE'S BET Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie, by Candi's Gold Alexis Barba
He could be a sleeper, and he may be one of the many three year old stakes winners who do nothing after the Kentucky Derby. I'm going to wait for the Santa Anita Derby before I make a final decision.
18. MENDIP Harlan's Holiday - Well Spring, by Coronado Quest
He'll be running in less than a week, and then we will know if he is to be considered in the Triple Crown. Stablemate Vale of York is off the Triple Crown Trail and won't be running in the UAE Derby, so that will make it a bit easier for Mendip.
19. BACKTALK Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed Thomas M. Amoss
He was not entered in the Louisiana Derby, but I'm sure he will get a shot at making the Triple Crown. I've also felt that he has talent, and he may finally get a chance to prove it on the big stage.
20. PLEASANT PRINCE
I meant to put him on my "Watch Very Closely" list last week but just plain forgot. He ran a great race in the Florida Derby, being beaten only by a nose, and may actually be better than the winner. We'll find out more in the Kentucky Derby.
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 20, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 19th, 2010
Beginning tomorrow, the Triple Crown Trail is going to really sort itself out. The first grade I race for three year old colts of 2010, the Florida Derby, has drawn a huge field of eleven. But Eskendereya will not be among them. Along with discussing what will happen this week, I must also recap what happened last week, including the 2010 debuts of Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. One went right, and one went wrong.
To begin, I’ll discuss this Saturday’s racing, beginning with the. . .
FLORIDA DERBY (gr. I) ---- Gulfstream Park, Race 11, March 20th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Finally! The first grade I race for three year old colts is here! And don't forget, for some, this may be the last stop on the way to the Kentucky Derby. I can smell the roses now! It's only six weeks away! Every Saturday from now until April 10th there will be major Derby prep races. On the 17th, there is the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, as well as the first two year old races of 2010. When that happens, it may be time to start another Top Twenty! And on the 24th, there is The Cliff's Edge Derby Trail Stakes as well as the Whithers Stakes. Both might turn out a potential Preakness starter. And on the 30th, there will be the Kentucky Oaks, and of course, everybody knows what happens on May 1st. . .
But let's get back to this Saturday. The Florida Derby, one of five graded stakes races that will be run at Gulfstream Park tomorrow, drew a tough field of eleven entries. Laying before me is a wealth of great information from a variety of places, including Speed and Class Graphs from Equibase, which I will be trying for the first time. So let's take a look at who’s running, starting with the number one horse, Soaring Empire.
Soaring Empire, who is the longshot on the morning line odds (along with Best Actor), proves how tough tomorrow's field is. With odds of 20-1, he really doesn't look that bad here. I believe that this son of Empire Maker will not only be in the mix, but will run fairly well. He's never tried two turns before, but I wouldn't throw him out. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other runner. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro. He comes into the race off of a three quarter length win in a seven furlong allowance race, in which he defeated Allez Reef. His workouts haven't been brilliant, but they haven't been bad either. He has been improving, and I think he has a big chance at hitting the board tomorrow.
Then there is the number two horse, which I will be personally pulling for, regardless of who my final selection is. His name is Lentenor, and he is the very popular full brother to the ill-fated 2006 Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby winner, Barbaro. He is owned by Barbaro's owner, and is trained by Barbaro's trainer. The only thing he didn't get is Barbaro's jockey, who will be riding Radiohead in this race. The son of Dynaformer has only a maiden win from four starts, but just keeps improving. With morning line odds of 6-1, I believe that he will be the second choice by the time the race is run. This will be his first try at a stakes race, and he comes into the race off of a runner up performance, beaten only a half of a length, in a nine furlong allowance race. However, in that allowance race, they ran faster than Eskendereya did in the Fountain of Youth. Of course, Lentenor's race was on turf, which is typically faster than dirt. But it's still worth noting. If Lentenor takes to the dirt, I think that he will be in the mix, and is capable of winning. He will be ridden for the first time by Alan Garcia.
Moving on, we come to the number three horse, Pulsion. The son of Include failed to put in a rally while running sixth in last month's Fountain of Youth Stakes, but will likely turn in a better effort this time around. He will be ridden for the first time by Corey Nakatani. At 12-1 on the morning line odds, I think that he will be down to something like 9-1 before the race is run. Still, he needs to prove than he can run well on dirt, which he failed to do in the Fountain of Youth. It's hard to say if he is ready for a best effort. I don't think that he's quite on the same level as some of the other entries in this race, but I do think that he has a shot at hitting the board.
But don't forget about Pleasant Prince. In his stakes debut, the son of Indy King finished fourth to Eskenderaya, Jackson Bend, and Aikenite in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Prior to that, he had run second to Ice Box in an allowance race, and fifth to Eskendereya in another allowance race. He has only ever won one race, that being a maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs, but he seems to be improving. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, who rode him in the Fountain of Youth, and may be able to turn in another good run. His last workout was great. With morning line odds of 15-1, I think he's worth taking a chance on.
Now I come to the two “dudes.” The five horse, Game on Dude, enters the race off of a three length maiden win at this track. In that race, the son of Awesome Again broke in the air, but still came home easily the best. I think that he will be in the mix here. His workouts have been sharp, and he appears to have an unlimited future. He will be ridden by Jeremy Rose, who jockeyed Afleet Alex to his wins in the 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. His morning line odds are 12-1.
The number six horse, First Dude, brings similar credentials into today's race. The son of Stephen Got Even enters the race off of a runner up performance to Fly Down in a nine furlong allowance race. In that race, he was beaten only a head, and will likely challenge for the early lead tomorrow. This will be his stakes debut, and he will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He is the 8-1 fifth choice on the morning line odds.
This brings us to the 5-2 morning line favorite Rule. The son of Roman Ruler has always been a classy colt, never finishing worse than third in six starts. He brings a four race winning streak into today's race, and this will likely be his toughest race to date. He comes into this race off of a decisive three length wire-to-wire win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes over highly regarded Schoolyard Dreams and Uptowncharlybrown. He has a track record to his credit (even if it was at Delta Downs) but his running style does leave questions as to whether or not he can get the Triple Crown distances. In his four wins, he has gone wire-to-wire in each one. However, he wasn't slowing down in the mile and a sixteenth Sam F. Davis, so it's possible that he is just a truly good front runner who can go any distance. I find that hard to believe, but it is possible. He will be ridden by regular jockey John Velazquez.
Then of course, there is Ice Box. The son of Pulpit made a strong run in last month's Fountain of Youth Stakes before fading and ending up fifth, beaten twelve lengths by Eskendereya. However, he was five wide on one of the turns, and he did not get the best of trips. I think he could run a good race. His morning line odds are 15-1, and he will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
Then there is the number nine horse, Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft has morning line odds of 6-1, but those will likely be down to 4-1 by the time the race is run. He comes into tomorrow's race off of a five and a half length win in a maiden special weight race at this same track. On that day, he ran his mile in 1:35 4/5, which was the same time that Radiohead ran in an allowance race that same day, at that same track, at that same distance. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who rode Big Brown to victory in this race two years ago. As everybody knows, Big Brown went on to win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stake.
This brings us to the number ten horse, Best Actor. The son of Rock Hard Ten comes into the Florida Derby off of a third place finish, beaten just over three lengths, behind Drosselmeyer and Prince Will I Am. His morning line odds of 20-1 are probably accurate, but you never know how well he might run. He will be ridden by J. Castellano.
Finally, we come to the number eleven horse, Radiohead. The son of Johannesburg has been very consistent, his only poor run coming in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile, where he had to steady on the first turn before finishing seventh. Still, he was only four lengths by the winner, and he rebounded off of that race to score a win in a one mile allowance race at this same track late last February. Finishing second in that race, beaten three lengths, was the Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris. But unfortunately for Radiohead, he has drawn the far outside post position. Considering the very short run to the first turn, it's possible that he could be caught very wide. However, Big Brown was able to overcome the same problem in the 2008 Florida Derby, and was extremely wide while winning the Kentucky Derby, so it just goes to show that the best horses can overcome wide trips. We'll see what Radiohead can do. He will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
So, here are my selections for the Florida Derby.
1 Miner's Reserve
2 Lentenor
3 Rule
4 Soaring Empire
5 Radiohead
6 Game On Dude
7 First Dude
8 Ice Box
9 Pulsion
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Best Actor
It was a tough decision. I can see any one of these entries winning this race, and I am dead serious. I don't think that anyone here is completely outclassed. All bring excellent credentials, and all have show great ability. I finally decided to go with Miner's Reserve, but it's entirely possible that he and Rule could run themselves out in a speed dual. It's going to test both of them, for I believe that the early pace is going to be stiff. Lentenor has also shown early speed, but seems to prefer to wait just off of the pace before making his move. I think it's possible that he is the best horse in the race, but I suspect that he is just too green to win the race. However, I will be cheering him on. If they turn for home and it's Miner's Reserve on the lead with Lentenor charging after him, believe me, I'll be pulling for Lentenor.
Now, I know that Rule is an excellent horse, and I have liked him for a couple of months now, but I'm just not convinced that he can get the distance. I just don't think he can. I have that feeling that if he is forced to go fast early he may fold in the drive. I'm probably wrong, but that's what I think. Finally, as I said before, I think that any horse here can win, even Best Actor. I would not be surprised to see Pulsion come under the wire first, or Ice Box, or Game On Dude, or First Dude, or anybody. This is going to be a tough race to win, and whoever does will be on of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Of that I am sure.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although I won't be deeply discussing any of the other races that are to be run this Saturday, I will make note of a few good ones that could affect the Triple Crown.
To begin with, I'll mention the Swale Stakes. The seven furlong race is on the undercard of the Florida Derby, and is for three year olds only. The likely favorite is D' Funnybone, winner of the Hutcheson Stakes at this same distance and track last February. However, a tough field of colts is set to face him, including the third, fourth, and fifth place finishers from the Hutcheson. They are, respectively, Ibboyee, Hear Ye Hear Ye, and City Trooper. Then there is Gary D, winner of the OBS Sprint Stakes at Ocala Training Center last month, grade III winner Dixie Band, who will be making his 2010 debut and his first start on dirt. Fearless Cowboy, also making his 2010 debut, could also be in the mix. Silver Craft and Privilaged complete the field. The former comes off of a fourth to Rule, Schoolyard Dreams, and Uptowncharlybrown in last month's Sam F. Davis Stakes, and the latter will be making his 2010 debut. I feel that D' Funnybone is the deserving favorite, but I also think that there is a good chance for him to be upset. I'm not really sure who would do it, but I think that Gary D, Dixie Band, and Fearless Cowboy all deserve respect, and that Hear Ye Hear Ye and Ibboyee will both be capable of threatening the favorite. It's going to be a good race.
It is interesting to note that D'Funnybone is not being aimed to the Kentucky Derby, rather, he intends to wait for the Preakness Stakes. I think it's a better spot for him, as it would allow him to prep in the Whithers Stakes three weeks before. I think that it is a better spot for him, as he definitely does not look like a mile and a quarter horse.
Then there is the nine furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes, also on the undercard of the Florida Derby. The race for three year old fillies drew a tough field, with Amen Hallelujah, who has already won a grade III and a grade II this year, the probable favorite. She comes into tomorrow's race off of an impressive win in the one mile Davona Dale Stakes. She has been very consistent, and should run a great race. I don't think the distance will be too far for her, but she will have to carry co-top weight of 122 pounds. She will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
But perhaps the most fascinating entry is Christine Daae, who will be making her first start in a stakes race. The daughter of Giant's Causeway has been very impressive so far, and was actually nominated to the Florida Derby, but decided to come here instead. With only 116 pounds on her back, and with Corey Nakatani riding her, she should be able to turn in a great run.
The other four runners are Danny's Friend, Switch, Devil May Care, and Joanie's Catch. Devil May Care is the only grade I winner in the field, being the winner of the Frizette Stakes, but she has turned in two terrible runs since then. However, I believe that she is ready to rebound. Switch should also be in the mix, having already finished third to Amen Hallelujah in the Santa Ynez and third to Blind Luck, beaten a half length, in the Las Virgenes. Joanie's Catch can't seem to get any respect, despite finishing second to Bickersons in the Forward Gal Stakes and second to Amen Hallelujah in the Davona Dale. This is one filly who looks ready to run better than her odds. Finally, there is Danny's Friend, who has already started eleven times, winning twice, finishing second twice, and third three times. This will be her first attempt at stakes company.
And last but not least, there is the nine furlong grade III Rampart Stakes. Part of the Florida Derby undercard, this race looks to be very important to next month's Apple Blossom Handicap. Although the Rampart is only open to fillies and mares four and upward, it's still worth mentioning here because Bambera, the 2009 Horse of the Year in Venezuela, fully intends to challenge Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom. So, tomorrow's race is actually the big test for Bambera, to find out how she compares to the American mares. She is the 8-1 fifth choice on the morning line odds, but she comes into the race off of something like thirteen, maybe more, consecutive victories down in South America, many of them over colts. Her regular rider has come to ride her, and I think that she'll run way better than her odds. The morning line favorite for the Rampart is Unrivaled Belle, with Aurora Lights the second choice. However, I don't think they are quite on the same level as Bambera, who will probably provide the stiffest challenge to Zenyatta two weeks from now. It does seem odd that Bambera will race Zenyatta with only two weeks rest, but then again, she raced thirteen times last year alone, winning all of them, so I don't think that she'll be affected.
RECAPPING LAST WEEK
To begin, I'll discuss the Tampa Bay Derby. As you know, I actually had two picks for this race, as I couldn't make up my mind between Odysseus and Uptowncharlybrown. I liked them both equally, and I felt that both of them could win impressively. I felt that Super Saver wasn't ready for a top effort, and didn't think that Schoolyard Dreams was capable of winning. As it turned out, three horses ran winning races, but Uptowncharlybrown was not one of them.
In the early going, Super Saver, as expected, rushed up to take the early lead. Odysseus got off to a fine start as well, and sat just behind the former for about five furlongs. Uptowncharlybrown checked early and failed to seriously menace from then on. After the field had gone about five furlongs, I heard the call that I didn't expect to here --- Schoolyard Dreams was making a huge run on the outside! When I watched the replay later, I was very impressed. His move was very strong, very fast, and very impressive. He took the lead from Super Saver, but ran into a brick wall. Super Saver wasn't going down without a fight. Into the stretch, they were only a head apart, as Gleam of Hope came with a tremendous late run! Odysseus, meanwhile, had dropped back to fourth, and looked completely out of the race. Uptowncharlybrown was going nowhere, as he had no room to run. But inside the final furlong, Odysseus found something extra. Despite considerable traffic problems, he rallied up the fence, and in a dramatic photo finish, fell a nose short of Schoolyard Dreams.
Or at least that's what it looked like.
After the photo finish had been examined, it was announced that Odysseus had won the race by the smallest of margins! Schoolyard Dreams ran a great race to finish second, and Super Saver was only a half length back in third.
So here are the results. . .
1 Odysseus
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Super Saver
4 Gleam of Hope
5 Uptowncharlybrown
6 Slammy Boy
7 Tuvia's Force
. . . versus my selections.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
1 Odysseus
3 Super Saver
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Tuvia's Force
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Slammy Boy
So I was satisfied with the results. It's obvious that Odysseus is a good colt, as is Schoolyard Dreams. Super Saver probably wasn't ready for a best effort, and should improve in his next start. Gleam of Hope also ran better than I thought he would, as he was beaten by only one length. Uptowncharlybrown just didn't have it today. Whether or not the traffic incidents were the cause of his poor showing is unknown. But I'm pleased with the results, and I hope that Odysseus heads to the Wood Memorial next. That would be a great race to see.
That said, I believe it's time to move on to the San Felipe Stakes. This race was perhaps the toughest to figure out last Saturday, and it did not turn out at all the way I thought it would. For one thing, Sidney's Candy proved he could go two turns. And for another, Interactif showed that he was not affected by running on synthetics.
So let's take a look at what happened. Out of the gate, it was Sidney's Candy who broke running and snatched the early lead. Interactif, also off to a good start, raced just behind him. American Lion also showed his typical early speed, and after a quarter of a mile had been run, passed Interactif to set his sights on the leader. Caracortado raced in fourth for the first six furlongs, with Erbeia, Dave in Dixie, and Stephen's Got Hope behind him.
As I looked at the fractions, I was amazed. How on earth were they letting Sidney's Candy get away with and opening quarter of :24 1/5, and a half mile in :48 2/5? It was obvious to me right then that Sidney's Candy was going to be tough to catch. And considering that Dave in Dixie was more than seven lengths behind him, I knew that he wouldn't be closing very strongly.
So as they turned into the stretch, it was Sidney's Candy with a two and a half length lead. Interactif was in second, just a head in front of Caracortado. American Lion had dropped back considerably, and Dave in Dixie was last. Stephen’s Got Hope and Erbeia where not threatening. When Sidney's Candy turned in a fourth quarter of :22 3/5, it was obvious that no one was going to catch him. But inside the sixteenth pole, Interactif found another gear, and cut into Candy's lead. At the wire, he fell just a half length short. Sidney's Candy has his first two turn win. Caracortado was two lengths behind the winner, with American Lion two and a half lengths behind Caracortado. Stephen’s Got Hope just missed fourth, while Dave in Dixie just managed to get up for sixth. Erbeia finished last.
So here are the results. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Interactif
3 Caracortado
4 American Lion
5 Stephen's Got Hope
6 Dave in Dixie
7 Erbeia
. . . versus my selections.
1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Interactif
5 Sidney's Candy
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Erbeia
So, I was quite wrong. I figured that the opening quarter mile would be something like :22 4/5, which it wasn't. His opening quarter was :24 1/5, almost :24 2/5, which was a half second slower than they went in the grade I Santa Margarita Handicap two races prior. And Zenyatta was in that race! As for the half mile fraction, Sidney's Candy got it in :48 2/5, which was nearly a second slower than in the Santa Margarita! Then, as if Sidney's Candy wasn't going slow enough already, he managed to get six furlongs in 1:13 2/5. In the Santa Margarita, they went that distance in 1:11 flat. So, now you have an idea of how slow they went in the San Felipe. Basically, this means that Sidney's Candy got an easy trip and won. I think that any horse who can set such a slow pace in a race of this caliber deserves to win. Now, I'm not sure that he is Triple Crown caliber, but I think that he will improve on dirt. I'm hoping that he comes east for the Wood Memorial, or perhaps the Illinois Derby. Either race would be great. I would just like to see him on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, should he make it that far.
Now I believe that I shall move on to the Rebel Stakes. Except for the Santa Margarita, this was the race that I was most looking forward to. With Lookin at Lucky and Dublin in the same race, I knew it was going to be a great match. Throw in Noble's Promise and things got a whole lot more interesting.
As the gates opened, it was Royal Express who took the early lead. As I expected, Uh Oh Bango raced forwardly, but was content to sit in second, just over a length behind Royal Express. Cardiff Giant, much to my surprise, was third. As for Noble's Promise, who I felt was sitting on a huge race, he was fourth in the early going. Lookin at Lucky was fifth, with Dublin in sixth. Pleasant Storm was last.
But things weren't looking good for Dublin. The colt was five wide on the first turn, and then made an early move to grab fourth, and then took the final turn four wide. As for Noble's Promise, he had been steadily moving up, and took the lead as they moved into the stretch. Lookin at Lucky, the favorite, had run into some slight traffic problems, but was still making a strong challenge. Uh Oh Bango had dropped back to fourth, while none of the others were threatening. Down the homestretch they came, with Noble's Promise still gamely holding on to the lead. Dublin was beginning to tire after the horrendous trip, while Lookin at Lucky began to close in on Noble's Promise. In an exciting photo finish, Lookin at Lucky got up to win by a head, with Noble's Promise second. Dublin was three lengths back in third.
So here are the results. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Noble's Promise
3 Dublin
4 Uh Oh Bango
5 Cardiff Giant
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
. . . versus my selections.
1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Noble's Promise
4 Cardiff Giant
5 Uh Oh Bango
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
So I was close, but not quite on. I had the first three right, just not in the right order. I was correct in thinking that Royal Express would finish last, and the Pleasant Prince would run sixth, but I had Cardiff Giant and Uh Oh Bango reversed. But, I'm satisfied, and I was still very impressed with Dublin. Lookin at Lucky has now raced on dirt, and will hopefully stay for the Arkansas Derby. Noble's Promise should continue to run good races, and he really looks like a Triple Crown contender to me. Perhaps the Preakness will suit him best, but who knows? Perhaps he'll be the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner! We'll find out soon.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Well, first off, there was the Cicada Stakes, run at Aqueduct. Or at least it was supposed to be run. Instead, it was canceled due to bad weather and postponed until this Saturday. My thoughts on that race remain the same. I still like Bickersons, Fuzzy Britches, and Female Drama, but I do believe that any one of the seven fillies are capable of winning. Can't wait for the results.
Then there was the Florida Oaks, run at Tampa Bay Downs. My pick was She Be Wild, but she chose to scratch for reasons I do not know. So I switched over to Diva Delight, who won impressively. I think that Diva Delight is one to watch on the way to the Kentucky Oaks.
But even more important than any of the races mentioned above were two races for fillies and mares, one in California, one in Louisiana. One was a grade I, one was an ungraded stakes. They were the most important because Zenyatta was in the California race, and Rachel Alexandra was in the Louisiana race. Both fillies were preparing for a match up in the Apple Blossom Handicap on April ninth. But what happened last week changed everything.
Out in California, in the Santa Margarita Handicap, Zenyatta would be making her first start since becoming the first filly or mare to win the Breeders' Cup Classic. Because of this, she would have to carry 127 pounds, eleven to sixteen pounds more than the other seven entries. Could she win the race, despite giving away so much weight in her first start back? No one knew for sure. But just the same, Zenyatta was sent off as the overwhelming favorite. Striking Dancer was the second choice at 7-1, and Gripsholm Castle was the third choice at 10-1.
Out of the gates, it was 52-1 shot Dance to My Tune who broke running and set the early pace. She was tracked by Made for Magic, with Gripsholm Castle racing in third. After the first quarter of a mile, run in :24 3/5, Zenyatta was last, trailing the leader by eight lengths. After a half mile in :47 3/5, she was nine lengths behind. After three quarters of a mile in 1:11 flat, Zenyatta was ten and a quarter lengths behind, and there was only three furlongs left to run. Up front, the positions were unchanged, with Dance to My Tune leading by two lengths.
That was when Zenyatta made her move.
From the three eighths pole to the time they turned for home, Zenyatta came between horses, moved to the rail, and made up seven and a half lengths. But she was running out of time and room. Zenyatta, full of run, was trapped on the rail and it was not looking good. Dance to My Tune was still the leader, battling with Made for Magic and Floating Heart! But somewhere around the sixteenth pole, Zenyatta fought her way to the outside and inhaled the leaders. Under a hand ride, she won by a length and a quarter to claim her fifteen win. Dance to my Tune hung on for second, just a nose in front of Floating Heart.
So one of the great fillies was ready for the Apple Blossom. Now as long as Rachel Alexandra ran well in the New Orleans Ladies out in Louisiana, it would be on to the Apple Blossom.
It wasn't to be.
Rachel Alexandra didn't have a lot to do. Only four fillies had turned out to face her, and if Rachel Alexandra was at her best, she was going to have no trouble winning by ten. But the 2009 Horse of the Year was not at her best. Everybody knew it. Her fitness had been questioned by many, and her trainer admitted that he was concerned. But still, Rachel Alexandra, even if she wasn't at her peak, should have been able to win the race. She would have had to be seriously out of shape to lose.
Out of the gates, it was Fighter Wing who raced up to take the early lead. Rachel Alexandra was right there on her outside, waiting to pounce. Zardana, at 10-1, was patiently waiting in third. Unforgotten was fourth, while Clear Sailing was last.
As the field move into the far turn, Rachel Alexandra made her move. With little effort, she blew past Fighter Wing to snatch a one length lead after six furlongs. But Zardana was not far behind, and as they turned into the stretch, the six year old stablemate of Zenyatta tackled Rachel and took the lead. But the race wasn't over yet. Rachel Alexandra gave it everything she had, but just couldn't get to Zardana, even losing a little ground as they came down the stretch. So in a spectacular upset, Zardana claimed the New Orleans Ladies, with Rachel Alexandra eleven lengths in front of Unforgotten. Fighter Wing came in fourth, with Clear Sailing last, beaten slightly more than twenty five lengths.
The next day, all dreams of a five million dollar super race were dashed. The connections of Rachel Alexandra decided not to run, for she obviously needs more time before taking on a mare like Zenyatta.
Perhaps they'll meet later in the year. But I'm afraid that there will never be another chance like this again.
But let’s forget about what could have been. Instead, let’s look forward to what will happen this Saturday. It’s going to be a great weekend. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
To begin, I’ll discuss this Saturday’s racing, beginning with the. . .
FLORIDA DERBY (gr. I) ---- Gulfstream Park, Race 11, March 20th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Finally! The first grade I race for three year old colts is here! And don't forget, for some, this may be the last stop on the way to the Kentucky Derby. I can smell the roses now! It's only six weeks away! Every Saturday from now until April 10th there will be major Derby prep races. On the 17th, there is the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, as well as the first two year old races of 2010. When that happens, it may be time to start another Top Twenty! And on the 24th, there is The Cliff's Edge Derby Trail Stakes as well as the Whithers Stakes. Both might turn out a potential Preakness starter. And on the 30th, there will be the Kentucky Oaks, and of course, everybody knows what happens on May 1st. . .
But let's get back to this Saturday. The Florida Derby, one of five graded stakes races that will be run at Gulfstream Park tomorrow, drew a tough field of eleven entries. Laying before me is a wealth of great information from a variety of places, including Speed and Class Graphs from Equibase, which I will be trying for the first time. So let's take a look at who’s running, starting with the number one horse, Soaring Empire.
Soaring Empire, who is the longshot on the morning line odds (along with Best Actor), proves how tough tomorrow's field is. With odds of 20-1, he really doesn't look that bad here. I believe that this son of Empire Maker will not only be in the mix, but will run fairly well. He's never tried two turns before, but I wouldn't throw him out. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other runner. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro. He comes into the race off of a three quarter length win in a seven furlong allowance race, in which he defeated Allez Reef. His workouts haven't been brilliant, but they haven't been bad either. He has been improving, and I think he has a big chance at hitting the board tomorrow.
Then there is the number two horse, which I will be personally pulling for, regardless of who my final selection is. His name is Lentenor, and he is the very popular full brother to the ill-fated 2006 Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby winner, Barbaro. He is owned by Barbaro's owner, and is trained by Barbaro's trainer. The only thing he didn't get is Barbaro's jockey, who will be riding Radiohead in this race. The son of Dynaformer has only a maiden win from four starts, but just keeps improving. With morning line odds of 6-1, I believe that he will be the second choice by the time the race is run. This will be his first try at a stakes race, and he comes into the race off of a runner up performance, beaten only a half of a length, in a nine furlong allowance race. However, in that allowance race, they ran faster than Eskendereya did in the Fountain of Youth. Of course, Lentenor's race was on turf, which is typically faster than dirt. But it's still worth noting. If Lentenor takes to the dirt, I think that he will be in the mix, and is capable of winning. He will be ridden for the first time by Alan Garcia.
Moving on, we come to the number three horse, Pulsion. The son of Include failed to put in a rally while running sixth in last month's Fountain of Youth Stakes, but will likely turn in a better effort this time around. He will be ridden for the first time by Corey Nakatani. At 12-1 on the morning line odds, I think that he will be down to something like 9-1 before the race is run. Still, he needs to prove than he can run well on dirt, which he failed to do in the Fountain of Youth. It's hard to say if he is ready for a best effort. I don't think that he's quite on the same level as some of the other entries in this race, but I do think that he has a shot at hitting the board.
But don't forget about Pleasant Prince. In his stakes debut, the son of Indy King finished fourth to Eskenderaya, Jackson Bend, and Aikenite in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Prior to that, he had run second to Ice Box in an allowance race, and fifth to Eskendereya in another allowance race. He has only ever won one race, that being a maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs, but he seems to be improving. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, who rode him in the Fountain of Youth, and may be able to turn in another good run. His last workout was great. With morning line odds of 15-1, I think he's worth taking a chance on.
Now I come to the two “dudes.” The five horse, Game on Dude, enters the race off of a three length maiden win at this track. In that race, the son of Awesome Again broke in the air, but still came home easily the best. I think that he will be in the mix here. His workouts have been sharp, and he appears to have an unlimited future. He will be ridden by Jeremy Rose, who jockeyed Afleet Alex to his wins in the 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. His morning line odds are 12-1.
The number six horse, First Dude, brings similar credentials into today's race. The son of Stephen Got Even enters the race off of a runner up performance to Fly Down in a nine furlong allowance race. In that race, he was beaten only a head, and will likely challenge for the early lead tomorrow. This will be his stakes debut, and he will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He is the 8-1 fifth choice on the morning line odds.
This brings us to the 5-2 morning line favorite Rule. The son of Roman Ruler has always been a classy colt, never finishing worse than third in six starts. He brings a four race winning streak into today's race, and this will likely be his toughest race to date. He comes into this race off of a decisive three length wire-to-wire win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes over highly regarded Schoolyard Dreams and Uptowncharlybrown. He has a track record to his credit (even if it was at Delta Downs) but his running style does leave questions as to whether or not he can get the Triple Crown distances. In his four wins, he has gone wire-to-wire in each one. However, he wasn't slowing down in the mile and a sixteenth Sam F. Davis, so it's possible that he is just a truly good front runner who can go any distance. I find that hard to believe, but it is possible. He will be ridden by regular jockey John Velazquez.
Then of course, there is Ice Box. The son of Pulpit made a strong run in last month's Fountain of Youth Stakes before fading and ending up fifth, beaten twelve lengths by Eskendereya. However, he was five wide on one of the turns, and he did not get the best of trips. I think he could run a good race. His morning line odds are 15-1, and he will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
Then there is the number nine horse, Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft has morning line odds of 6-1, but those will likely be down to 4-1 by the time the race is run. He comes into tomorrow's race off of a five and a half length win in a maiden special weight race at this same track. On that day, he ran his mile in 1:35 4/5, which was the same time that Radiohead ran in an allowance race that same day, at that same track, at that same distance. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who rode Big Brown to victory in this race two years ago. As everybody knows, Big Brown went on to win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stake.
This brings us to the number ten horse, Best Actor. The son of Rock Hard Ten comes into the Florida Derby off of a third place finish, beaten just over three lengths, behind Drosselmeyer and Prince Will I Am. His morning line odds of 20-1 are probably accurate, but you never know how well he might run. He will be ridden by J. Castellano.
Finally, we come to the number eleven horse, Radiohead. The son of Johannesburg has been very consistent, his only poor run coming in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile, where he had to steady on the first turn before finishing seventh. Still, he was only four lengths by the winner, and he rebounded off of that race to score a win in a one mile allowance race at this same track late last February. Finishing second in that race, beaten three lengths, was the Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris. But unfortunately for Radiohead, he has drawn the far outside post position. Considering the very short run to the first turn, it's possible that he could be caught very wide. However, Big Brown was able to overcome the same problem in the 2008 Florida Derby, and was extremely wide while winning the Kentucky Derby, so it just goes to show that the best horses can overcome wide trips. We'll see what Radiohead can do. He will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
So, here are my selections for the Florida Derby.
1 Miner's Reserve
2 Lentenor
3 Rule
4 Soaring Empire
5 Radiohead
6 Game On Dude
7 First Dude
8 Ice Box
9 Pulsion
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Best Actor
It was a tough decision. I can see any one of these entries winning this race, and I am dead serious. I don't think that anyone here is completely outclassed. All bring excellent credentials, and all have show great ability. I finally decided to go with Miner's Reserve, but it's entirely possible that he and Rule could run themselves out in a speed dual. It's going to test both of them, for I believe that the early pace is going to be stiff. Lentenor has also shown early speed, but seems to prefer to wait just off of the pace before making his move. I think it's possible that he is the best horse in the race, but I suspect that he is just too green to win the race. However, I will be cheering him on. If they turn for home and it's Miner's Reserve on the lead with Lentenor charging after him, believe me, I'll be pulling for Lentenor.
Now, I know that Rule is an excellent horse, and I have liked him for a couple of months now, but I'm just not convinced that he can get the distance. I just don't think he can. I have that feeling that if he is forced to go fast early he may fold in the drive. I'm probably wrong, but that's what I think. Finally, as I said before, I think that any horse here can win, even Best Actor. I would not be surprised to see Pulsion come under the wire first, or Ice Box, or Game On Dude, or First Dude, or anybody. This is going to be a tough race to win, and whoever does will be on of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Of that I am sure.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although I won't be deeply discussing any of the other races that are to be run this Saturday, I will make note of a few good ones that could affect the Triple Crown.
To begin with, I'll mention the Swale Stakes. The seven furlong race is on the undercard of the Florida Derby, and is for three year olds only. The likely favorite is D' Funnybone, winner of the Hutcheson Stakes at this same distance and track last February. However, a tough field of colts is set to face him, including the third, fourth, and fifth place finishers from the Hutcheson. They are, respectively, Ibboyee, Hear Ye Hear Ye, and City Trooper. Then there is Gary D, winner of the OBS Sprint Stakes at Ocala Training Center last month, grade III winner Dixie Band, who will be making his 2010 debut and his first start on dirt. Fearless Cowboy, also making his 2010 debut, could also be in the mix. Silver Craft and Privilaged complete the field. The former comes off of a fourth to Rule, Schoolyard Dreams, and Uptowncharlybrown in last month's Sam F. Davis Stakes, and the latter will be making his 2010 debut. I feel that D' Funnybone is the deserving favorite, but I also think that there is a good chance for him to be upset. I'm not really sure who would do it, but I think that Gary D, Dixie Band, and Fearless Cowboy all deserve respect, and that Hear Ye Hear Ye and Ibboyee will both be capable of threatening the favorite. It's going to be a good race.
It is interesting to note that D'Funnybone is not being aimed to the Kentucky Derby, rather, he intends to wait for the Preakness Stakes. I think it's a better spot for him, as it would allow him to prep in the Whithers Stakes three weeks before. I think that it is a better spot for him, as he definitely does not look like a mile and a quarter horse.
Then there is the nine furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes, also on the undercard of the Florida Derby. The race for three year old fillies drew a tough field, with Amen Hallelujah, who has already won a grade III and a grade II this year, the probable favorite. She comes into tomorrow's race off of an impressive win in the one mile Davona Dale Stakes. She has been very consistent, and should run a great race. I don't think the distance will be too far for her, but she will have to carry co-top weight of 122 pounds. She will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
But perhaps the most fascinating entry is Christine Daae, who will be making her first start in a stakes race. The daughter of Giant's Causeway has been very impressive so far, and was actually nominated to the Florida Derby, but decided to come here instead. With only 116 pounds on her back, and with Corey Nakatani riding her, she should be able to turn in a great run.
The other four runners are Danny's Friend, Switch, Devil May Care, and Joanie's Catch. Devil May Care is the only grade I winner in the field, being the winner of the Frizette Stakes, but she has turned in two terrible runs since then. However, I believe that she is ready to rebound. Switch should also be in the mix, having already finished third to Amen Hallelujah in the Santa Ynez and third to Blind Luck, beaten a half length, in the Las Virgenes. Joanie's Catch can't seem to get any respect, despite finishing second to Bickersons in the Forward Gal Stakes and second to Amen Hallelujah in the Davona Dale. This is one filly who looks ready to run better than her odds. Finally, there is Danny's Friend, who has already started eleven times, winning twice, finishing second twice, and third three times. This will be her first attempt at stakes company.
And last but not least, there is the nine furlong grade III Rampart Stakes. Part of the Florida Derby undercard, this race looks to be very important to next month's Apple Blossom Handicap. Although the Rampart is only open to fillies and mares four and upward, it's still worth mentioning here because Bambera, the 2009 Horse of the Year in Venezuela, fully intends to challenge Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom. So, tomorrow's race is actually the big test for Bambera, to find out how she compares to the American mares. She is the 8-1 fifth choice on the morning line odds, but she comes into the race off of something like thirteen, maybe more, consecutive victories down in South America, many of them over colts. Her regular rider has come to ride her, and I think that she'll run way better than her odds. The morning line favorite for the Rampart is Unrivaled Belle, with Aurora Lights the second choice. However, I don't think they are quite on the same level as Bambera, who will probably provide the stiffest challenge to Zenyatta two weeks from now. It does seem odd that Bambera will race Zenyatta with only two weeks rest, but then again, she raced thirteen times last year alone, winning all of them, so I don't think that she'll be affected.
RECAPPING LAST WEEK
To begin, I'll discuss the Tampa Bay Derby. As you know, I actually had two picks for this race, as I couldn't make up my mind between Odysseus and Uptowncharlybrown. I liked them both equally, and I felt that both of them could win impressively. I felt that Super Saver wasn't ready for a top effort, and didn't think that Schoolyard Dreams was capable of winning. As it turned out, three horses ran winning races, but Uptowncharlybrown was not one of them.
In the early going, Super Saver, as expected, rushed up to take the early lead. Odysseus got off to a fine start as well, and sat just behind the former for about five furlongs. Uptowncharlybrown checked early and failed to seriously menace from then on. After the field had gone about five furlongs, I heard the call that I didn't expect to here --- Schoolyard Dreams was making a huge run on the outside! When I watched the replay later, I was very impressed. His move was very strong, very fast, and very impressive. He took the lead from Super Saver, but ran into a brick wall. Super Saver wasn't going down without a fight. Into the stretch, they were only a head apart, as Gleam of Hope came with a tremendous late run! Odysseus, meanwhile, had dropped back to fourth, and looked completely out of the race. Uptowncharlybrown was going nowhere, as he had no room to run. But inside the final furlong, Odysseus found something extra. Despite considerable traffic problems, he rallied up the fence, and in a dramatic photo finish, fell a nose short of Schoolyard Dreams.
Or at least that's what it looked like.
After the photo finish had been examined, it was announced that Odysseus had won the race by the smallest of margins! Schoolyard Dreams ran a great race to finish second, and Super Saver was only a half length back in third.
So here are the results. . .
1 Odysseus
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Super Saver
4 Gleam of Hope
5 Uptowncharlybrown
6 Slammy Boy
7 Tuvia's Force
. . . versus my selections.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
1 Odysseus
3 Super Saver
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Tuvia's Force
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Slammy Boy
So I was satisfied with the results. It's obvious that Odysseus is a good colt, as is Schoolyard Dreams. Super Saver probably wasn't ready for a best effort, and should improve in his next start. Gleam of Hope also ran better than I thought he would, as he was beaten by only one length. Uptowncharlybrown just didn't have it today. Whether or not the traffic incidents were the cause of his poor showing is unknown. But I'm pleased with the results, and I hope that Odysseus heads to the Wood Memorial next. That would be a great race to see.
That said, I believe it's time to move on to the San Felipe Stakes. This race was perhaps the toughest to figure out last Saturday, and it did not turn out at all the way I thought it would. For one thing, Sidney's Candy proved he could go two turns. And for another, Interactif showed that he was not affected by running on synthetics.
So let's take a look at what happened. Out of the gate, it was Sidney's Candy who broke running and snatched the early lead. Interactif, also off to a good start, raced just behind him. American Lion also showed his typical early speed, and after a quarter of a mile had been run, passed Interactif to set his sights on the leader. Caracortado raced in fourth for the first six furlongs, with Erbeia, Dave in Dixie, and Stephen's Got Hope behind him.
As I looked at the fractions, I was amazed. How on earth were they letting Sidney's Candy get away with and opening quarter of :24 1/5, and a half mile in :48 2/5? It was obvious to me right then that Sidney's Candy was going to be tough to catch. And considering that Dave in Dixie was more than seven lengths behind him, I knew that he wouldn't be closing very strongly.
So as they turned into the stretch, it was Sidney's Candy with a two and a half length lead. Interactif was in second, just a head in front of Caracortado. American Lion had dropped back considerably, and Dave in Dixie was last. Stephen’s Got Hope and Erbeia where not threatening. When Sidney's Candy turned in a fourth quarter of :22 3/5, it was obvious that no one was going to catch him. But inside the sixteenth pole, Interactif found another gear, and cut into Candy's lead. At the wire, he fell just a half length short. Sidney's Candy has his first two turn win. Caracortado was two lengths behind the winner, with American Lion two and a half lengths behind Caracortado. Stephen’s Got Hope just missed fourth, while Dave in Dixie just managed to get up for sixth. Erbeia finished last.
So here are the results. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Interactif
3 Caracortado
4 American Lion
5 Stephen's Got Hope
6 Dave in Dixie
7 Erbeia
. . . versus my selections.
1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Interactif
5 Sidney's Candy
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Erbeia
So, I was quite wrong. I figured that the opening quarter mile would be something like :22 4/5, which it wasn't. His opening quarter was :24 1/5, almost :24 2/5, which was a half second slower than they went in the grade I Santa Margarita Handicap two races prior. And Zenyatta was in that race! As for the half mile fraction, Sidney's Candy got it in :48 2/5, which was nearly a second slower than in the Santa Margarita! Then, as if Sidney's Candy wasn't going slow enough already, he managed to get six furlongs in 1:13 2/5. In the Santa Margarita, they went that distance in 1:11 flat. So, now you have an idea of how slow they went in the San Felipe. Basically, this means that Sidney's Candy got an easy trip and won. I think that any horse who can set such a slow pace in a race of this caliber deserves to win. Now, I'm not sure that he is Triple Crown caliber, but I think that he will improve on dirt. I'm hoping that he comes east for the Wood Memorial, or perhaps the Illinois Derby. Either race would be great. I would just like to see him on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, should he make it that far.
Now I believe that I shall move on to the Rebel Stakes. Except for the Santa Margarita, this was the race that I was most looking forward to. With Lookin at Lucky and Dublin in the same race, I knew it was going to be a great match. Throw in Noble's Promise and things got a whole lot more interesting.
As the gates opened, it was Royal Express who took the early lead. As I expected, Uh Oh Bango raced forwardly, but was content to sit in second, just over a length behind Royal Express. Cardiff Giant, much to my surprise, was third. As for Noble's Promise, who I felt was sitting on a huge race, he was fourth in the early going. Lookin at Lucky was fifth, with Dublin in sixth. Pleasant Storm was last.
But things weren't looking good for Dublin. The colt was five wide on the first turn, and then made an early move to grab fourth, and then took the final turn four wide. As for Noble's Promise, he had been steadily moving up, and took the lead as they moved into the stretch. Lookin at Lucky, the favorite, had run into some slight traffic problems, but was still making a strong challenge. Uh Oh Bango had dropped back to fourth, while none of the others were threatening. Down the homestretch they came, with Noble's Promise still gamely holding on to the lead. Dublin was beginning to tire after the horrendous trip, while Lookin at Lucky began to close in on Noble's Promise. In an exciting photo finish, Lookin at Lucky got up to win by a head, with Noble's Promise second. Dublin was three lengths back in third.
So here are the results. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Noble's Promise
3 Dublin
4 Uh Oh Bango
5 Cardiff Giant
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
. . . versus my selections.
1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Noble's Promise
4 Cardiff Giant
5 Uh Oh Bango
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
So I was close, but not quite on. I had the first three right, just not in the right order. I was correct in thinking that Royal Express would finish last, and the Pleasant Prince would run sixth, but I had Cardiff Giant and Uh Oh Bango reversed. But, I'm satisfied, and I was still very impressed with Dublin. Lookin at Lucky has now raced on dirt, and will hopefully stay for the Arkansas Derby. Noble's Promise should continue to run good races, and he really looks like a Triple Crown contender to me. Perhaps the Preakness will suit him best, but who knows? Perhaps he'll be the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner! We'll find out soon.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Well, first off, there was the Cicada Stakes, run at Aqueduct. Or at least it was supposed to be run. Instead, it was canceled due to bad weather and postponed until this Saturday. My thoughts on that race remain the same. I still like Bickersons, Fuzzy Britches, and Female Drama, but I do believe that any one of the seven fillies are capable of winning. Can't wait for the results.
Then there was the Florida Oaks, run at Tampa Bay Downs. My pick was She Be Wild, but she chose to scratch for reasons I do not know. So I switched over to Diva Delight, who won impressively. I think that Diva Delight is one to watch on the way to the Kentucky Oaks.
But even more important than any of the races mentioned above were two races for fillies and mares, one in California, one in Louisiana. One was a grade I, one was an ungraded stakes. They were the most important because Zenyatta was in the California race, and Rachel Alexandra was in the Louisiana race. Both fillies were preparing for a match up in the Apple Blossom Handicap on April ninth. But what happened last week changed everything.
Out in California, in the Santa Margarita Handicap, Zenyatta would be making her first start since becoming the first filly or mare to win the Breeders' Cup Classic. Because of this, she would have to carry 127 pounds, eleven to sixteen pounds more than the other seven entries. Could she win the race, despite giving away so much weight in her first start back? No one knew for sure. But just the same, Zenyatta was sent off as the overwhelming favorite. Striking Dancer was the second choice at 7-1, and Gripsholm Castle was the third choice at 10-1.
Out of the gates, it was 52-1 shot Dance to My Tune who broke running and set the early pace. She was tracked by Made for Magic, with Gripsholm Castle racing in third. After the first quarter of a mile, run in :24 3/5, Zenyatta was last, trailing the leader by eight lengths. After a half mile in :47 3/5, she was nine lengths behind. After three quarters of a mile in 1:11 flat, Zenyatta was ten and a quarter lengths behind, and there was only three furlongs left to run. Up front, the positions were unchanged, with Dance to My Tune leading by two lengths.
That was when Zenyatta made her move.
From the three eighths pole to the time they turned for home, Zenyatta came between horses, moved to the rail, and made up seven and a half lengths. But she was running out of time and room. Zenyatta, full of run, was trapped on the rail and it was not looking good. Dance to My Tune was still the leader, battling with Made for Magic and Floating Heart! But somewhere around the sixteenth pole, Zenyatta fought her way to the outside and inhaled the leaders. Under a hand ride, she won by a length and a quarter to claim her fifteen win. Dance to my Tune hung on for second, just a nose in front of Floating Heart.
So one of the great fillies was ready for the Apple Blossom. Now as long as Rachel Alexandra ran well in the New Orleans Ladies out in Louisiana, it would be on to the Apple Blossom.
It wasn't to be.
Rachel Alexandra didn't have a lot to do. Only four fillies had turned out to face her, and if Rachel Alexandra was at her best, she was going to have no trouble winning by ten. But the 2009 Horse of the Year was not at her best. Everybody knew it. Her fitness had been questioned by many, and her trainer admitted that he was concerned. But still, Rachel Alexandra, even if she wasn't at her peak, should have been able to win the race. She would have had to be seriously out of shape to lose.
Out of the gates, it was Fighter Wing who raced up to take the early lead. Rachel Alexandra was right there on her outside, waiting to pounce. Zardana, at 10-1, was patiently waiting in third. Unforgotten was fourth, while Clear Sailing was last.
As the field move into the far turn, Rachel Alexandra made her move. With little effort, she blew past Fighter Wing to snatch a one length lead after six furlongs. But Zardana was not far behind, and as they turned into the stretch, the six year old stablemate of Zenyatta tackled Rachel and took the lead. But the race wasn't over yet. Rachel Alexandra gave it everything she had, but just couldn't get to Zardana, even losing a little ground as they came down the stretch. So in a spectacular upset, Zardana claimed the New Orleans Ladies, with Rachel Alexandra eleven lengths in front of Unforgotten. Fighter Wing came in fourth, with Clear Sailing last, beaten slightly more than twenty five lengths.
The next day, all dreams of a five million dollar super race were dashed. The connections of Rachel Alexandra decided not to run, for she obviously needs more time before taking on a mare like Zenyatta.
Perhaps they'll meet later in the year. But I'm afraid that there will never be another chance like this again.
But let’s forget about what could have been. Instead, let’s look forward to what will happen this Saturday. It’s going to be a great weekend. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
THE TWENTY, as of March 19th, 2010
(note: I decided that this week, just for fun, I would extend my "Top Twenty" to a "Top Thirty". I felt like talking about some of the horses who are just out of my Top Twenty.)
1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
His run in the Rebel Stakes was excellent. He has answered every question so far. Will Bob Baffert snatch that elusive fourth Kentucky Derby win? We'll find out on May 1st. . .
2. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
Stepped up and ran a great race in the Tampa Bay Derby, overcoming a lot of traffic to get the win. I suspect that he will be one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Really didn't run all that badly in the Rebel. I can see this colt losing the Arkansas Derby and winning the Kentucky Derby at huge odds. I think he'll be ready in May.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
Now that he's going to wait for the Wood Memorial, I like him even better. With a final prep four weeks before the Kentucky Derby, the timing seems a bit better. Would love to see him and Odysseus meet.
5 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
Didn't quite run as well in the San Felipe as he did in the Robert B. Lewis, but I suspect that he will rebound in the Santa Anita Derby. It's tough to say if he is ready for the Triple Crown, but I think that he is a good one.
6. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I really think that she could win one of the Triple Crown races if she was to enter. She looks like a really nice filly who can challenge the colts. She reminds me a lot of Zenyatta.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
Should he make the Derby, I wonder how the American colts will respond to his European style. It could be just what it takes to win the Triple Crown.
8. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
I just don't think this one is going to get the distance. He looks like a great miler, but not a mile and a quarter horse. The Florida Derby will tell us more.
9. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
I think that he ran the best race of his career in the Rebel Stakes, coming so close to defeating Lookin at Lucky. I can see him being a very major contender in the Kentucky Derby, and especially the Preakness.
10. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He ran a great race in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I'm still left wondering how far he can really go. He will likely improve off of this effort, but I'm not quite sure that he is ready for the Triple Crown.
11. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Very impressive in the San Felipe, despite staying close to the front. The Blue Grass Stakes would be a nice spot for him.
12. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
I imagine that he will be entered in the Louisiana Derby. I think he run a great race there. He needs a lot of pace to get him home, but who knows how fast it will be in the Kentucky Derby.
13. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
Can't wait to see him run in the Lane's End Stakes just a little more than a week from now.
14. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
I'm not sure where he's going to run next, but I do think he'll run better on dirt. Perhaps the Wood Memorial is next. That would be a great test.
15. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
I hope that he doesn't wait for the Arkansas Derby. Seven weeks without a race is a long time. And then he would only have three weeks before the Kentucky Derby.
16. ALPHIE'S BET Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie, by Candi's Gold Alexis Barba
I'm going to wait until he runs again before moving him up. He looked good winning the Sham, but I'm still not convinced that he is Triple Crown caliber.
17. DAVE IN DIXIE Dixie Union - Risk, by Wavering Monarch John W. Sadler
He didn't fire like I thought he would in the San Felipe, but he certainly didn't have any pace to chase. With a little more speed up front, his late run should return.
18. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN Limehouse - La Iluminada, by Langfuhr Alan S. Seewald
Unfortunately, he had a few traffic problems in the Tampa Bay Derby and wound up fifth. There isn't a lot of time left before the Kentucky Derby, so I'm starting to worry. But perhaps he'll be ready for the Preakness.
19. MENDIP Harlan's Holiday - Well Spring, by Coronado Quest
He'll get his next test in the UAE Derby, and will once again take on Vale of York. I would not be surprised if both of them came for the Kentucky Derby.
20. BACKTALK Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed Thomas M. Amoss
I would love to see this one in the Louisiana Derby. Looked good winning the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes despite everything.
21. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Bernstein - Miss Cheers, by Carson City Alexis Barba
I had been anticipating his debut for some time, and he came through in a big way. Now he just needs to switch back to synthetic/dirt. I would love to see him in the Santa Anita Derby.
22. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
With Calvin Borel riding him in the Wood Memorial, it's possible that he could make the Kentucky Derby yet. I don't think he has the pedigree to back him up, but you never know what might happen.
23. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet William I. Mott
I'm expecting improvement in his next start. His run in the Risen Star really wasn't that bad, but he needs to show another gear in the stretch.
24. RADIOHEAD Johannesburg - Security Interest, by Belong to Me Richard Dutrow
Unfortunately, he drew the far outside in the Florida Derby, which is never a good thing. If he can overcome it, hats off. He's great.
25. LENTENOR Dynaformer - La Ville Rouge, by Micheal Matz
I think the fact that they're running him in the Florida Derby is a good sign. If he finishes first or second, he should be rich enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. If he winds up third or worse, he can come back three weeks later for the Arkansas Derby, Lexington Stakes, or something similar.
26. FAST ALEX Afleet Alex - Unaffordable, by Unbridled Greg Geier
Has a nice win down at Fair Grounds. If he comes through in the Louisiana Derby, he'll be near the top of everyone's lists. His pedigree looks ready for the Triple Crown.
27. STORMING SAINT Sweetsouthernsaint - Tomisue's Storm, by Storm Cat Henry Dominguez
Decided to include this one off of his win in the Borderland Derby. With the Sunland Derby graded this year, I would not be surprised if this colt makes it to the Kentucky Derby.
28. MINER'S RESERVE Mineshaft - Royal Reserves, by Forty Niner Nick Zito
I think he's going to run huge in the Florida Derby. If he wins, or even finishes second, he should make the Kentucky Derby. I think he looks like a Triple Crown horse.
29. COYOTE LEGEND Gold Legend - Coyote Cafe, by Seeking the Gold W. Bret Calhoun
With his win in the Jim's Orbit Stakes, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Sunland Derby field. His pedigree is very interesting.
30. AIKENITE Yes It's True - Silverlado, by Saint Ballado Todd Pletcher
I imagine that he will show up in the Blue Grass Stakes next. I think that he will run well there, but I don't think that he is quite ready for the Triple Crown.
Well, the bad news finally came. I had the suspicion that it would come eventually, and it did. Buddy's Saint has dropped off of the Triple Crown Trail due to an ankle chip suffered during a workout. A terribly unfortunate turn of events, as I do believe that he has incredible talent. But perhaps he will recover in time for the great summer and fall races such as the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
AFLEET EXPRESS I'm still not sure whether this colt is anything or not.
COLIZEO Entered to run in a one mile turf allowance race on the undercard of the Florida Derby.
DISCREETLY MINE I just don't see him going a mile and a quarter, or even a mile and three sixteenths.
DOUBLES PARTNER Not sure how he's going to get the graded earnings in time.
FLY DOWN Where will he go next?
ICE BOX He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE The Louisiana Derby would be great.
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Ran huge in the Tampa Bay Derby, just wasn't quite enough.
SOARING EMPIRE He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
STAY PUT The Louisiana Derby would be great.
VALE OF YORK He'll get another shot at making the Triple Crown.
VOW TO WAGER One to watch in the Lane's End Stakes.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Is he off the Triple Crown Trail?
YAWANNA TWIST Might be a potential Wood Memorial threat.
KEEP AN EYE ON
AFLEET AGAIN I don't think that he's quite ready for the Triple Crown.
A LITTLE WARM Appears to be a sprinter.
AMERICAN LION Ran rather poorly in the San Felipe, not sure what to think now.
BEST ACTOR He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
BULLS AND BEARS Didn't quite get it done in a March 19th allowance race.
BIM BAM I don't think that he's quite ready for the Triple Crown.
CODOY Will probably get his chance in the Lane's End Stakes.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
COOL BULLET Where will he start next?
D’FUNNYBONE Will run in the Swale on the 20th.
DIXIE COMMANDER Nice win in the Turf Paradise Derby.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY He's had a couple of workouts, so perhaps he's back on track.
FIRST DUDE He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
FLY BY PHIL No news about him lately.
GAME ON DUDE He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
GENERAL MAXIMUS Appears to have little stamina.
HOMEBOYKRIS Will train up to the Kentucky Derby.
HOTEP Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
KERA’S KITTEN Will probably get another chance in the Lane's End.
LETSGETITONMON Looking to redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER He looks like a miler.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR Ran a disappointing race in the Sham.
NORTHERN GIANT Not sure what to think of him.
OUTLAW MAN Not sure what to think of him.
PADDY O'PRADO I imagine he'll go to the Blue Grass.
PEPPI KNOWS I don't think he has the ability.
PULSION Get's a chance to redeem himself in the Florida Derby.
SASSY IMAGE I expect that she'll rebound in her next start.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Needs more experience.
THE PROGRAM He doesn't look ready for the Triple Crown
TIZ CHROME Where will he run next?
WILDCAT FRANKIE Appears to be a sprinter.
-Keelerman
1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
His run in the Rebel Stakes was excellent. He has answered every question so far. Will Bob Baffert snatch that elusive fourth Kentucky Derby win? We'll find out on May 1st. . .
2. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
Stepped up and ran a great race in the Tampa Bay Derby, overcoming a lot of traffic to get the win. I suspect that he will be one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Really didn't run all that badly in the Rebel. I can see this colt losing the Arkansas Derby and winning the Kentucky Derby at huge odds. I think he'll be ready in May.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
Now that he's going to wait for the Wood Memorial, I like him even better. With a final prep four weeks before the Kentucky Derby, the timing seems a bit better. Would love to see him and Odysseus meet.
5 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
Didn't quite run as well in the San Felipe as he did in the Robert B. Lewis, but I suspect that he will rebound in the Santa Anita Derby. It's tough to say if he is ready for the Triple Crown, but I think that he is a good one.
6. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I really think that she could win one of the Triple Crown races if she was to enter. She looks like a really nice filly who can challenge the colts. She reminds me a lot of Zenyatta.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
Should he make the Derby, I wonder how the American colts will respond to his European style. It could be just what it takes to win the Triple Crown.
8. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
I just don't think this one is going to get the distance. He looks like a great miler, but not a mile and a quarter horse. The Florida Derby will tell us more.
9. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
I think that he ran the best race of his career in the Rebel Stakes, coming so close to defeating Lookin at Lucky. I can see him being a very major contender in the Kentucky Derby, and especially the Preakness.
10. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He ran a great race in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I'm still left wondering how far he can really go. He will likely improve off of this effort, but I'm not quite sure that he is ready for the Triple Crown.
11. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Very impressive in the San Felipe, despite staying close to the front. The Blue Grass Stakes would be a nice spot for him.
12. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
I imagine that he will be entered in the Louisiana Derby. I think he run a great race there. He needs a lot of pace to get him home, but who knows how fast it will be in the Kentucky Derby.
13. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
Can't wait to see him run in the Lane's End Stakes just a little more than a week from now.
14. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
I'm not sure where he's going to run next, but I do think he'll run better on dirt. Perhaps the Wood Memorial is next. That would be a great test.
15. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
I hope that he doesn't wait for the Arkansas Derby. Seven weeks without a race is a long time. And then he would only have three weeks before the Kentucky Derby.
16. ALPHIE'S BET Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie, by Candi's Gold Alexis Barba
I'm going to wait until he runs again before moving him up. He looked good winning the Sham, but I'm still not convinced that he is Triple Crown caliber.
17. DAVE IN DIXIE Dixie Union - Risk, by Wavering Monarch John W. Sadler
He didn't fire like I thought he would in the San Felipe, but he certainly didn't have any pace to chase. With a little more speed up front, his late run should return.
18. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN Limehouse - La Iluminada, by Langfuhr Alan S. Seewald
Unfortunately, he had a few traffic problems in the Tampa Bay Derby and wound up fifth. There isn't a lot of time left before the Kentucky Derby, so I'm starting to worry. But perhaps he'll be ready for the Preakness.
19. MENDIP Harlan's Holiday - Well Spring, by Coronado Quest
He'll get his next test in the UAE Derby, and will once again take on Vale of York. I would not be surprised if both of them came for the Kentucky Derby.
20. BACKTALK Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed Thomas M. Amoss
I would love to see this one in the Louisiana Derby. Looked good winning the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes despite everything.
21. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Bernstein - Miss Cheers, by Carson City Alexis Barba
I had been anticipating his debut for some time, and he came through in a big way. Now he just needs to switch back to synthetic/dirt. I would love to see him in the Santa Anita Derby.
22. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
With Calvin Borel riding him in the Wood Memorial, it's possible that he could make the Kentucky Derby yet. I don't think he has the pedigree to back him up, but you never know what might happen.
23. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet William I. Mott
I'm expecting improvement in his next start. His run in the Risen Star really wasn't that bad, but he needs to show another gear in the stretch.
24. RADIOHEAD Johannesburg - Security Interest, by Belong to Me Richard Dutrow
Unfortunately, he drew the far outside in the Florida Derby, which is never a good thing. If he can overcome it, hats off. He's great.
25. LENTENOR Dynaformer - La Ville Rouge, by Micheal Matz
I think the fact that they're running him in the Florida Derby is a good sign. If he finishes first or second, he should be rich enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. If he winds up third or worse, he can come back three weeks later for the Arkansas Derby, Lexington Stakes, or something similar.
26. FAST ALEX Afleet Alex - Unaffordable, by Unbridled Greg Geier
Has a nice win down at Fair Grounds. If he comes through in the Louisiana Derby, he'll be near the top of everyone's lists. His pedigree looks ready for the Triple Crown.
27. STORMING SAINT Sweetsouthernsaint - Tomisue's Storm, by Storm Cat Henry Dominguez
Decided to include this one off of his win in the Borderland Derby. With the Sunland Derby graded this year, I would not be surprised if this colt makes it to the Kentucky Derby.
28. MINER'S RESERVE Mineshaft - Royal Reserves, by Forty Niner Nick Zito
I think he's going to run huge in the Florida Derby. If he wins, or even finishes second, he should make the Kentucky Derby. I think he looks like a Triple Crown horse.
29. COYOTE LEGEND Gold Legend - Coyote Cafe, by Seeking the Gold W. Bret Calhoun
With his win in the Jim's Orbit Stakes, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Sunland Derby field. His pedigree is very interesting.
30. AIKENITE Yes It's True - Silverlado, by Saint Ballado Todd Pletcher
I imagine that he will show up in the Blue Grass Stakes next. I think that he will run well there, but I don't think that he is quite ready for the Triple Crown.
Well, the bad news finally came. I had the suspicion that it would come eventually, and it did. Buddy's Saint has dropped off of the Triple Crown Trail due to an ankle chip suffered during a workout. A terribly unfortunate turn of events, as I do believe that he has incredible talent. But perhaps he will recover in time for the great summer and fall races such as the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
AFLEET EXPRESS I'm still not sure whether this colt is anything or not.
COLIZEO Entered to run in a one mile turf allowance race on the undercard of the Florida Derby.
DISCREETLY MINE I just don't see him going a mile and a quarter, or even a mile and three sixteenths.
DOUBLES PARTNER Not sure how he's going to get the graded earnings in time.
FLY DOWN Where will he go next?
ICE BOX He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE The Louisiana Derby would be great.
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Ran huge in the Tampa Bay Derby, just wasn't quite enough.
SOARING EMPIRE He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
STAY PUT The Louisiana Derby would be great.
VALE OF YORK He'll get another shot at making the Triple Crown.
VOW TO WAGER One to watch in the Lane's End Stakes.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Is he off the Triple Crown Trail?
YAWANNA TWIST Might be a potential Wood Memorial threat.
KEEP AN EYE ON
AFLEET AGAIN I don't think that he's quite ready for the Triple Crown.
A LITTLE WARM Appears to be a sprinter.
AMERICAN LION Ran rather poorly in the San Felipe, not sure what to think now.
BEST ACTOR He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
BULLS AND BEARS Didn't quite get it done in a March 19th allowance race.
BIM BAM I don't think that he's quite ready for the Triple Crown.
CODOY Will probably get his chance in the Lane's End Stakes.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
COOL BULLET Where will he start next?
D’FUNNYBONE Will run in the Swale on the 20th.
DIXIE COMMANDER Nice win in the Turf Paradise Derby.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY He's had a couple of workouts, so perhaps he's back on track.
FIRST DUDE He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
FLY BY PHIL No news about him lately.
GAME ON DUDE He'll get his chance in the Florida Derby.
GENERAL MAXIMUS Appears to have little stamina.
HOMEBOYKRIS Will train up to the Kentucky Derby.
HOTEP Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
KERA’S KITTEN Will probably get another chance in the Lane's End.
LETSGETITONMON Looking to redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER He looks like a miler.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR Ran a disappointing race in the Sham.
NORTHERN GIANT Not sure what to think of him.
OUTLAW MAN Not sure what to think of him.
PADDY O'PRADO I imagine he'll go to the Blue Grass.
PEPPI KNOWS I don't think he has the ability.
PULSION Get's a chance to redeem himself in the Florida Derby.
SASSY IMAGE I expect that she'll rebound in her next start.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Needs more experience.
THE PROGRAM He doesn't look ready for the Triple Crown
TIZ CHROME Where will he run next?
WILDCAT FRANKIE Appears to be a sprinter.
-Keelerman
Friday, March 12, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 12th, 2010
Get ready ---- March 13th is going to be the greatest day of 2010 racing so far. With Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta ready to make their returns, Dublin to take another shot at returning to the winners circle, and Super Saver making his three year old debut, it's going to be a spectacular day. But before we examine any of the upcoming races, let us first take a look at what happened last week, beginning with the Gotham Stakes.
Here are the results. . .
1 Awesome Act
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Nacho Friend
4 Turf Melody
5 Shrimp Dancer
6 Peppi Knows
7 I've Got the Fever
8 Wow Wow Wow
9 Three Day Rush
10 Afleet Again
. . . versus my selections.
1 Afleet Again
2 Wow Wow Wow
3 Awesome Act
4 Three Day Rush
5 Peppi Knows
6 I've Got the Fever
7 Turf Melody
8 Nacho Friend
9 Shrimp Dancer
10 Yawanna Twist
Wow. . . was I wrong, or was I wrong!? It's obvious that Awesome Act was not affected by the plane flight from Europe four days before the race, nor did he care that he was racing on dirt. He made a great run from behind to grab a 1 1/4 length win, although Yawanna Twist was definitely flying at the finish. Speaking of Yawanna Twist, I had him picked to run last. When making the selections, I was a bit low on time, and failed to seriously examine him. Big mistake.
As I said on my last post, my pick was Afleet Again, although I knew that I would be taking a chance. Sent off at odds of 25-1, he ran last, beaten twenty-four lengths by the winner.
Nacho Friend, like Yawanna Twist, was a horse I failed to seriously examine. He ran an excellent race, but tired in the drive to finish third at odds of 8-1. Wow Wow Wow failed to run the race I thought he would, as did Three Day Rush. So I learned my lesson: When you see a name you don't know, find out who it is. . . fast.
Moving on, we come to the Sham Stakes. I assume that the race is named after Sham, runner up to Secretariat in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in 1973.
Here are the results. . .
1 Alphie's Bet
2 Setsuko
3 The Program
4 Outlaw Man
5 Boulder Creek
6 Marcello
7 Nextdoorneighbor
8 Kettle River
9 El Mirage King
10 Wolf Tail
. . . versus my selections.
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Marcello
8 Wolf Tail
9 Boulder Creek
10 Alphie's Bet
After this race was run, I truly realized that I need to pay more attention to the horses I haven't heard of. I always try to find out who they are prior to making my picks, but occasionally I just plain run out of time and fail to find all the information I need.
So, taking a look at how the race was run, Nextdoorneighbor took the early lead, which I thought was odd. I figured he would be farther back, but perhaps his jockey didn't want to be caught wide. But after a half mile in :47 3/5, I realized that Nextdoorneighbor would have to be a really, really good horse to win. After about three quarters of a mile had been run, I saw The Program make his move, and turning for home I thought it was the winning move.
But perhaps it came too early. Coming into the homestretch, it looked for a moment as though Nextdoorneighbor might accept the challenge and turn The Program back. But although the former gave it everything he had, he just couldn't stop The Program. Fading somewhat rapidly, Nextdoorneighbor finished seventh.
Still, The Program's worries weren't over yet. The favorite, Setsuko, was making a strong challenge on the outside, as was Alphie's Bet. The Program, who seemed to be running out of gas, finished third, three and a half lengths behind Alphie's Bet, and one and a quarter lengths behind Setsuko.
As for Outlaw Man, he really ran a good race, finishing fourth, beaten only a head for third. I wouldn't give up on him yet. Perhaps he will improve in his next start, or perhaps he will improve on dirt.
So my final thoughts? Nextdoorneighbor should try dirt. It appears to me that front runners don't do very well on synthetic tracks, and if that's the way he likes to run, he might find that he has better luck on a good old dirt. Perhaps the Sunland Derby is next? We'll find out soon.
Now it's time to discuss the Santa Anita Oaks. The grade I race for three year old fillies was headlined by Blind Luck, who was trying for her third straight grade I win. Sent off at the heavy favorite, she came from last after a half mile to finish. . . third.
On the surface, this looks like a poor effort. But considering what Blind Luck was forced to overcome, it was really an incredible effort.
To begin with, the pace was snail-like. All Due Respect, ridden by Garrett Gomez, broke fastest and got away with an opening quarter mile in :24 4/5. And if that wasn’t slow enough, she managed to run a still slower half mile fraction, :49 3/5. At this point, Blind Luck needed to turn in the type of run only Zenyatta can do to get the win. Incredibly, she did it.
Despite going three quarters of a mile in a pedestrian 1:13 4/5, Blind Luck began a rally. Her jockey made the decision to come up the rail, and it nearly worked. Blind Luck, full of run, willingly charged between horses but could find no openings. Finally, at the last possible moment, she and her jockey made a desperate move to the outside and Blind Luck made an incredible surge that startled me. She missed second by a neck, and the win by only a length. The winner, take nothing away from her, was Crisp. At odds of nearly 6-1, she was the third choice in the seven horse field. She sat second for most of the race before taking the lead from All Due Respect in the stretch. An excellent run, but she did get a much better trip than Blind Luck did.
As for All Due Respect, give credit to her and Garrett Gomez for setting such a slow pace. How they got away with it, I don't know. A great race for both of them.
Finally, Sister Dawn was scratched by her trainer before the race. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with her.
So here are the results. . .
1 Crisp
2 All Due Respect
3 Blind Luck
4 Warren's Jitterbug
5 Cozi Rosie
6 Zilva
7 Riviera Chic
. . . versus my selections.
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 All Due Respect
4 Zilva
5 Warren's Jitterbug
6 Cozi Rosie
7 Riveria Chic
So I was closer here than I was in the prior two races. I had the top three right, just not in order, and I had Riviera Chic to run last. As for fourth, fifth, and sixth, I was somewhat off, but not too badly.
One final note, it was announced that Blind Luck will ship to Arkansas and run in the Fantasy Stakes next month as her final prep for the Kentucky Oaks. Or will she run in the Kentucky Derby? I doubt it. But it's fun to think about.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Now, the three races I discussed above were not the only races run last week. Although the next two races I shall mention were run on turf, you never know where a Triple Crown contender will come from.
The first race was the Pasadena Stakes, run on the undercard of the Santa Anita Oaks and Sham Stakes. The heavy favorite was Macias, and rightfully so. But I had the suspicion that he might not want to go a mile, and that he might just tire inside the final eighth. After carefully analyzing all of the entries, I decided that Make Music for Me would catch him at the wire. I knew that he had been placing behind some very good horses, and that he seemed ready for a great run. I also liked Straightomidnight and Runaway Bandido.
Fortunately for me, I was able to see this race live, along with the Santa Anita Oaks, Sham Stakes, Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap, and Santa Anita Handicap. This also meant that I could see what the odds were. I figured that Macias would be the slight favorite with Make Music for Me the second choice. I knew that Alfarabia would get some play, and I assumed that Runaway Bandido would be something like 15-1. How wrong I was. Macias was the heavy favorite, Alfarabi was the second choice at about 4-1, Make Music for Me was about 7-1, and Runaway Bandido was sent off at 80-1.
But at least I had the race figured out. Macias set the pace and led into the stretch, but Make Music for Me passed him late to snatch a one length victory. Finishing third was Albaradi, Fantastic Pick was fourth, and Runaway Bandido came home fifth. As for Straightomidnight, I could tell watching him in the post parade that he was going to challenge Macias early and fade in the end. He just looked wound up and anxious to run. He finished last of ten.
So, I hit the exacta, and I was a very happy person the rest of the day.
Moving on, I must mention the Palm Beach Stakes, which was run last Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Bim Bam, who was coming off of a nose victory over Triple Crown hopeful Interactif. Looking over the entries, I felt that Bim Bam wasn't going to run a top race, but I wasn't sure who was going to beat him. In the end, I couldn't decide, so I decided not to make any picks. At the wire, it was Paddy O'Prado in front by two and a half lengths. Dean's Kitten finished second, Our Champion third, and Asphalt fourth. Bim Bam finished fifth after being bumped at the start. The final time was excellent, 1:45 2/5 for the mile and an eighth. Of course, it was still a good second and a half off of the world record, but it was still an incredible time. Who knows? Perhaps Paddy O'Prado will some day be known as the world record holder for a mile and an eighth. We'll see where he goes from here.
Then there was the Herecomesthebride Stakes, identical to the Palm Beach Stakes except that it was for fillies. I liked Upperline and In the Rough, but both were defeated by Khancord Kid, who went wire-to-wire to win by a half of a length. Finishing second was Apple Charlotte, with Upperline in third. In the Rough finished up seventh.
Finally, there was the Santa Anita Handicap and the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. Both were for four year olds and up, but I mentioned them on my last post anyway. In the former, I went with St. Trinians, with Neko Bay to finish second and Misremembered to run third. St. Trinians ended up sixth, but Misremembered just held off Neko Bay for the win. In the latter, I went with the five year old mare Proviso, with Awesome Gem to finish second and Fluke to run third. As I watched, I could see that Fluke had the lead, and I could see where Awesome Gem was, but I couldn't find Proviso. As they turned for home, I was watching Awesome Gem, and I totally didn't see Proviso until I heard her name called. I looked back at Fluke and there she was, cutting into his lead with little ground remaining. Imagine how thrilled I was when she nailed him on the wire for a nose victory. With that win, she became the first filly or mare ever to win the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. And I saw it!
Now, with all of last week's races discussed, it's time to look at what's to come, beginning with the. . .
TAMPA BAY DERBY (gr. III) ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Wow ---- that's what I thought when I looked at the entries for this race. I thought there couldn't possibly be a race as tough to figure out as this one. Then I saw the entries for the Rebel Stakes. But we'll discuss that one later.
For now, let's stick to the Tampa Bay Derby. This mile and a sixteenth race drew Super Saver, impressive winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. It also attracted the impressive optional claiming race winner Odysseus, the improving Uptowncharlybrown, and the interesting colt Schoolyard Dreams. So let's take a closer look at the entries, beginning with the number one horse, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was victorious in his first two starts before making a huge class jump in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. In that race, he met up with top Triple Crown hopeful Rule, and ended up third, four lengths behind the winner, Rule, and one length behind the runner up, Schoolyard Dreams. Although it wasn't a win, it was a good race, and he was really closing at the finish. He should continue to improve, and should be a major threat on Saturday, especially with only 116 pounds on his back. As if that wasn't enough, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
The number two horse is Tuvia's Force. The son of Mineshaft comes off of a third to Wildcat Frankie and Bank the Eight in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The competition that beat him wasn't that great, but he was making up considerable ground late. He will likely improve off of that race. He'll have to really step up in class, but he'll only have to carry 116 pounds. His workouts have been great. He could run a huge race.
The number three horse is Gleam of Hope. This City Zip colt seems to run either really well or really badly. He doesn't appear to be on the same level as some of the other entries, but he could have a shot at the money. However, he will have to carry 122 pounds, which is the co-top weight with Super Saver. He will have to give away six pounds to all of the other entries. This could affect the outcome of the race. Still, I think he has a shot at hitting the board.
The number four horse is Slammy Boy. A son of Grand Slam, this will be his fifth race, and his first in stakes company. He has been against some decent competition, including Prince Will I Am, Outlaw Man, and Doubles Partner, but he doesn't look quite ready for this level of competition. He will carry 116 pounds.
This brings us to the number five horse, Schoolyard Dreams. In his first race, he finished third behind Afleet Again and Laus Deo. In his next start, he defeated Tempted to Tapit. In his first start of 2010, he won an optional claiming race, and then finished second to Rule in the Sam F. Davis Stakes while defeating Uptowncharlybrown. Carrying 116 pounds, he should be in the mix. It's also possible that he could provide some pace, as he likes to race near the lead. His workouts have been excellent.
Then there is the number six horse, the morning line favorite Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon likes to have the lead, a style that possibly cost him the Champagne Stakes last year. However, the colt redeemed himself by going wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. I believe that if he is to have any shot at the race, he is going to have to set a slow pace. Not necessarily snail like, but slower than in the Champagne. I think that if he goes three quarters of a mile in 1:10 3/5 tomorrow, he's going to be tough to catch. However, if he goes that same distance in 1:09 2/5, like he did in the Champagne, he's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he's going to hang on.
And so finally, we come to the number seven horse, Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon has the biggest question to answer. How good is he? In his last race, and Optional Claiming race, he exploded as they turned for home and drew off at will to win by fifteen lengths. It was a huge performance, his best so far. And it was at this same track, at this same distance. With only 116 pounds on his back, he looks ready to fire another big one. And it would be crazy if a horse with a name like his didn't turn out to be something special. Odysseus? That's a name that goes with the rest of the Triple Crown winners.
So, here are my selections for the race.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Odysseus
3 Super Saver
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Tuvia's Force
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Slammy Boy
That said, let me contradict everything. I think that Odysseus is capable of winning the race. He just keeps improving and should be able to handle the competition. It looks to me like Uptowncharlybrown is sitting on a big one, and he should be really closing late. As for Super Saver, I think that this is going to be a tough spot back, and that he may not be completely primed for a best effort. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts.
Getting back to the top two, I just couldn't decide whether Uptowncharlybrown or Odysseus looked better here. I had actually written Odysseus into the top spot when I remembered that Uptowncharlybrown would be wearing blinkers for the first time. So, after much thought, I reluctantly removed Odysseus from the top spot and put Uptowncharlybrown in his place. However, if I was going to bet the race, which I won't, I would go with both of them. Maybe place two exactas, one with Uptowncharlybrown on the top, the other with Odysseus in that place. Of course, it's hard to ignore Super Saver, but I guess that I just don't think that he's ready. Last of all, I think that Schoolyard Dreams has the potential to win the race, but I just don't like him here as well as I like the other three.
That said, I think that it is time to move on to the. . .
SAN FELIPE STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita Park, Race 9, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
A few days before the entries for this race were released, I sat down and thought about who might show up. I figured that I would see the names Caracortado, Dave in Dixie, and if I was lucky, American Lion. I couldn't imagine the race getting any better.
It did.
When the entries were announced, I was amazed to see Interactif among them, and even more surprised to see Sidney's Candy. All of a sudden, the race got just that much harder to figure out.
First off, I shall discuss the number one horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even has won no races so far, and appears to be out of place here. But after Paddy O'Prado won the Palm Beach Stakes for his first win last week, who knows? He will carry 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Tyler Baze. One final interesting fact, he is a Texas-bred, which I don't see all that often. Or maybe I've just never noticed them before. . .
Then there is the number two horse, Interactif. The son of Broken Vow won two grade III races on the turf last year before finishing third in a very tight Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He was then given a rest until February before reemerging for the Hallandale Beach Stakes. In that race, he tracked the pace set by Bim Bam, overtook the latter in the stretch, but lost the race when Bim Bam came back at him to grab a nose victory. He has not raced since then. As for tomorrow's race, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. If he likes the synthetics, he should be able to run a good race.
This brings us to the number three horse, Erbeia. The son of Pulpit has only a maiden win to his credit, and he looks a bit outclassed here. Tomorrow, he will carry 115 pounds and will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Then there is the number four horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow has won two of his four races. In 2009, he won the seven furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). In his 2010 debut, he tracked the pace set by Tiz Chrome in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and gave way late, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie. Tomorrow, he will wear blinkers for the first time. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and will carry 117 pounds. It's hard to say whether he will race close to the pace, as he did in the Robert B. Lewis, or try racing farther back. If he chooses the former, he'll have to prove that he can stay with Sidney's Candy. If he chooses the latter, he'll have to catch Sidney's Candy.
Moving on, we come to the number five horse, Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride will be making his two turn debut. He was very impressive in his last start, going wire-to-wire in the San Vincente Stakes to win by four and a half lengths. If he can carry his speed two turns, watch out. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
The number six horse is perhaps the most intriguing. In that gate will be Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union was the runner up in last month's Robert B. Lewis Stakes. In that race, he was perhaps the most impressive of everyone running, rocketing from behind with a late run in his first start since October 4th, 2009. I suspect that he will run even better tomorrow than he did last month. He will be ridden by Joel Rosario, and will carry only 115 pounds, four less than Caracortado will.
Speaking of Caracortado, he is the number seven horse. The impressive winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is undefeated in five starts so far, and is looking to make it six. A son of Cat Dreams, he is a gelding, so it would be really cool if he continues to improve. Perhaps he will become the next Kelso! Getting back to tomorrow's race, he will be ridden by Paul Atkinson and will carry 119 pounds, the high weight of the seven entries.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Interactif
5 Sidney's Candy
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Erbeia
Well, it was a tough race to figure out, but I guess I think that Caracortado is ready for another great performance. I feel that Dave in Dixie is only going to improve now that he has a prep under him. American Lion should also improve, based on the addition of blinkers and a two turn race under his belt. Interactif has been running very consistently, but I'm concerned that he just isn't good enough. Sidney's Candy definitely has talent, and I'm sure he will run a good race, but I suspect that the pace in this race may be a bit fast, and I've also noticed that closers do better at Santa Anita than front runners. As for Stephen's Got Hope and Erbeia, I feel that they just aren't capable of beating this field. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts. One final note, if Interactif races off the pace tomorrow, than ignore everything I said about him not being good enough. I think that if he goes back to coming from behind, he'll finish in the top three. Maybe he'll even win.
Now I believe that it is time to move on to the. . .
REBEL STAKES (gr. II) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 10, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Wow . . . what a race this is going to be. Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble's Promise. Three grade I winners. This is going to be exciting . . . and influential.
To begin with, Dublin and Lookin at Lucky are my top two picks for the Triple Crown, in that order. I also greatly respect Noble's Promise, and will not forget about Uh Oh Bango. The winner of this race, if he wins it the right way, will likely top my "The Twenty" list. So get ready. Let's take a look at who's running.
First off, there is the number one horse, Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman was most recently third in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. Carrying only 115 pounds, he should be in the mix. His style of coming from behind should benefit him in this race. The question is, can he out close Dublin?
Then there is the number two horse, Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won five of six starts, his only loss coming in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he finished second, beaten only a head by longshot Vale of York. In that race, Vale of York raced along the rail, while Lookin at Lucky was caught extremely wide on both turns. So it further proves how good a colt Lookin at Lucky is. He returned later that year to capture the CashCall Futurity by three quarters of a length, sewing up the Eclipse Award for champion two year old colt. However, he does have a habit of easing up when he takes the lead, which could lead to trouble if a colt like Dublin was to coming rocketing from behind and catch him off guard. So Bob Baffert, Lookin at Lucky's trainer, has added blinkers for the first time. He believes that they will help his talented colt stay focused. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and will carry 119 pounds.
Now we move on to the number three horse, Royal Express. The son of Royal Academy comes off of a runner up performance in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes behind Backtalk. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by P. Compton.
This brings us to the number four horse, Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit has not raced since finishing a neck behind top Kentucky Derby hopeful Rule in last December's Delta Jackpot Stakes. He has never finished worse than second, and should really be in the mix tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by G. W. Corbett.
But of course, we must not forget Pleasant Storm. The late-running son of Pleasant Tap failed to put in a rally while finishing seventh in last month's Southwest Stakes, but prior to that, he finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by J. K. Court. He doesn't appear to be as good as some of the other colts in this race, but if he's lucky, he could get a piece of the money.
Next up for discussion is the number six horse, Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been very consistent his entire career, winning three races, finishing second in two, and third in one from six starts. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity last fall, his best race probably cam in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he ran an incredible race to be beaten only a length by Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky. Following that performance, he finished second to Lookin at Lucky after making a big move in the CashCall Futurity. Like the latter, he will be making his first start since then. I believe that he is ready to run the best race of his career. He will carry 119 pounds, and will be ridden for the first time by Robby Albarado.
Finally, we come to the number seven horse, Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex was my early Kentucky Derby pick after he won the Hopeful Stakes, but I eventually switched over to Buddy's Saint. After Buddy's Saint ran into disaster in the Fountain of Youth, Dublin once again reclaimed the top spot as my pick for the Triple Crown. I was very proud of him when he ran second in the Southwest Stakes, and I think that he's ready for an even better effort tomorrow. With the extra sixteenth of a mile, as well as the presence of more pace, he should be flying late. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
So here are my selections for the Rebel Stakes. . .
1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Noble's Promise
4 Cardiff Giant
5 Uh Oh Bango
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
I think that the pace is going to be very fast tomorrow, and I think that Lookin at Lucky will be pushing it. With Noble's Promise, Royal Express, and Uh Oh Bango all interested in the lead, I think that the race is going to set up perfectly for Dublin. The latter already raced once this year, and should be ready for an excellent effort. Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise should be able to run great races, but I think that neither of them a primed to run their best. As for Cardiff Giant, he's already raced twice this year, and seems to be improving. Uh Oh Bango seems to be a fine colt, but I think that he will be cooked by the early pace. I could be wrong, but that's what I think. Pleasant Storm might be able to get a piece of the money, but I don't think he's quite good enough. Finally, I think that Royal Express will set the pace and tire in the drive. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although it's going to be fabulous watching all of the great races tomorrow, it's also unfortunate that I can't discuss all of them as thoroughly as I would like. So I will just quickly mention a few of the better races that shall be run this Saturday, beginning with the six furlong Cicada Stakes, held at Aqueduct.
The race is headlined by Bickersons, who is returning only two weeks after her fourth place finish in last month's Davona Dale Stakes. That race was perhaps a bit long for her, being one mile, and she should be able to rebound tomorrow. If anybody is going to beat her, I feel it will be either Female Drama, Liam's Dream, or Fuzzy Britches. It should be a good race.
Then of course, there is the Florida Oaks, run at Tampa Bay Downs. The big name here is She Be Wild, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Eclipse Award for champion two year old filly. In her last start, she was soundly beaten by Bickersons in the seven furlong Forward Gal Stakes. Also in the race is Diva Delight, winner of the Gasparilla and Suncoast Stakes this year. Both of those wins came at this track.
It looks like a tough race to win, but I feel that She Be Wild is ready to rebound, and has an excellent shot at winning. Diva Delight should also be in the mix, as will Cuff Me and Awesome Vow. I respect Miss Afleet Alex and Imaginary Saint as well. I can't wait for the results.
Finally, there are the two races that I have been waiting for the most: The Santa Margarita Invitational and the New Orleans Ladies. In the latter, 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Zenyatta will make her return, and in the former, Rachel Alexandra will make hers. Both fillies will likely be sent off as the favorites, but both have questions to answer. Can Zenyatta give away eight to twelve pounds in her first start since the early November? And is Rachel Alexandra fit enough to defeat her four rivals, having not raced since early September? I think that both of them will win rather easily. Zenyatta has the harder race to win, but I feel that she is better prepared and will run one of the best races of her life. Rachel Alexandra probably won't win by twenty, but she should win with relative ease. Zardana will likely be in the mix, as will Clear Sailing. They are going to have to work for their wins, but they are two of the greatest fillies of all time. I have no doubts that both of them will find a way to win. Twenty-six days until the Apple Blossom. . . let's hope it works out.
-Keelerman
Here are the results. . .
1 Awesome Act
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Nacho Friend
4 Turf Melody
5 Shrimp Dancer
6 Peppi Knows
7 I've Got the Fever
8 Wow Wow Wow
9 Three Day Rush
10 Afleet Again
. . . versus my selections.
1 Afleet Again
2 Wow Wow Wow
3 Awesome Act
4 Three Day Rush
5 Peppi Knows
6 I've Got the Fever
7 Turf Melody
8 Nacho Friend
9 Shrimp Dancer
10 Yawanna Twist
Wow. . . was I wrong, or was I wrong!? It's obvious that Awesome Act was not affected by the plane flight from Europe four days before the race, nor did he care that he was racing on dirt. He made a great run from behind to grab a 1 1/4 length win, although Yawanna Twist was definitely flying at the finish. Speaking of Yawanna Twist, I had him picked to run last. When making the selections, I was a bit low on time, and failed to seriously examine him. Big mistake.
As I said on my last post, my pick was Afleet Again, although I knew that I would be taking a chance. Sent off at odds of 25-1, he ran last, beaten twenty-four lengths by the winner.
Nacho Friend, like Yawanna Twist, was a horse I failed to seriously examine. He ran an excellent race, but tired in the drive to finish third at odds of 8-1. Wow Wow Wow failed to run the race I thought he would, as did Three Day Rush. So I learned my lesson: When you see a name you don't know, find out who it is. . . fast.
Moving on, we come to the Sham Stakes. I assume that the race is named after Sham, runner up to Secretariat in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in 1973.
Here are the results. . .
1 Alphie's Bet
2 Setsuko
3 The Program
4 Outlaw Man
5 Boulder Creek
6 Marcello
7 Nextdoorneighbor
8 Kettle River
9 El Mirage King
10 Wolf Tail
. . . versus my selections.
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Marcello
8 Wolf Tail
9 Boulder Creek
10 Alphie's Bet
After this race was run, I truly realized that I need to pay more attention to the horses I haven't heard of. I always try to find out who they are prior to making my picks, but occasionally I just plain run out of time and fail to find all the information I need.
So, taking a look at how the race was run, Nextdoorneighbor took the early lead, which I thought was odd. I figured he would be farther back, but perhaps his jockey didn't want to be caught wide. But after a half mile in :47 3/5, I realized that Nextdoorneighbor would have to be a really, really good horse to win. After about three quarters of a mile had been run, I saw The Program make his move, and turning for home I thought it was the winning move.
But perhaps it came too early. Coming into the homestretch, it looked for a moment as though Nextdoorneighbor might accept the challenge and turn The Program back. But although the former gave it everything he had, he just couldn't stop The Program. Fading somewhat rapidly, Nextdoorneighbor finished seventh.
Still, The Program's worries weren't over yet. The favorite, Setsuko, was making a strong challenge on the outside, as was Alphie's Bet. The Program, who seemed to be running out of gas, finished third, three and a half lengths behind Alphie's Bet, and one and a quarter lengths behind Setsuko.
As for Outlaw Man, he really ran a good race, finishing fourth, beaten only a head for third. I wouldn't give up on him yet. Perhaps he will improve in his next start, or perhaps he will improve on dirt.
So my final thoughts? Nextdoorneighbor should try dirt. It appears to me that front runners don't do very well on synthetic tracks, and if that's the way he likes to run, he might find that he has better luck on a good old dirt. Perhaps the Sunland Derby is next? We'll find out soon.
Now it's time to discuss the Santa Anita Oaks. The grade I race for three year old fillies was headlined by Blind Luck, who was trying for her third straight grade I win. Sent off at the heavy favorite, she came from last after a half mile to finish. . . third.
On the surface, this looks like a poor effort. But considering what Blind Luck was forced to overcome, it was really an incredible effort.
To begin with, the pace was snail-like. All Due Respect, ridden by Garrett Gomez, broke fastest and got away with an opening quarter mile in :24 4/5. And if that wasn’t slow enough, she managed to run a still slower half mile fraction, :49 3/5. At this point, Blind Luck needed to turn in the type of run only Zenyatta can do to get the win. Incredibly, she did it.
Despite going three quarters of a mile in a pedestrian 1:13 4/5, Blind Luck began a rally. Her jockey made the decision to come up the rail, and it nearly worked. Blind Luck, full of run, willingly charged between horses but could find no openings. Finally, at the last possible moment, she and her jockey made a desperate move to the outside and Blind Luck made an incredible surge that startled me. She missed second by a neck, and the win by only a length. The winner, take nothing away from her, was Crisp. At odds of nearly 6-1, she was the third choice in the seven horse field. She sat second for most of the race before taking the lead from All Due Respect in the stretch. An excellent run, but she did get a much better trip than Blind Luck did.
As for All Due Respect, give credit to her and Garrett Gomez for setting such a slow pace. How they got away with it, I don't know. A great race for both of them.
Finally, Sister Dawn was scratched by her trainer before the race. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with her.
So here are the results. . .
1 Crisp
2 All Due Respect
3 Blind Luck
4 Warren's Jitterbug
5 Cozi Rosie
6 Zilva
7 Riviera Chic
. . . versus my selections.
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 All Due Respect
4 Zilva
5 Warren's Jitterbug
6 Cozi Rosie
7 Riveria Chic
So I was closer here than I was in the prior two races. I had the top three right, just not in order, and I had Riviera Chic to run last. As for fourth, fifth, and sixth, I was somewhat off, but not too badly.
One final note, it was announced that Blind Luck will ship to Arkansas and run in the Fantasy Stakes next month as her final prep for the Kentucky Oaks. Or will she run in the Kentucky Derby? I doubt it. But it's fun to think about.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Now, the three races I discussed above were not the only races run last week. Although the next two races I shall mention were run on turf, you never know where a Triple Crown contender will come from.
The first race was the Pasadena Stakes, run on the undercard of the Santa Anita Oaks and Sham Stakes. The heavy favorite was Macias, and rightfully so. But I had the suspicion that he might not want to go a mile, and that he might just tire inside the final eighth. After carefully analyzing all of the entries, I decided that Make Music for Me would catch him at the wire. I knew that he had been placing behind some very good horses, and that he seemed ready for a great run. I also liked Straightomidnight and Runaway Bandido.
Fortunately for me, I was able to see this race live, along with the Santa Anita Oaks, Sham Stakes, Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap, and Santa Anita Handicap. This also meant that I could see what the odds were. I figured that Macias would be the slight favorite with Make Music for Me the second choice. I knew that Alfarabia would get some play, and I assumed that Runaway Bandido would be something like 15-1. How wrong I was. Macias was the heavy favorite, Alfarabi was the second choice at about 4-1, Make Music for Me was about 7-1, and Runaway Bandido was sent off at 80-1.
But at least I had the race figured out. Macias set the pace and led into the stretch, but Make Music for Me passed him late to snatch a one length victory. Finishing third was Albaradi, Fantastic Pick was fourth, and Runaway Bandido came home fifth. As for Straightomidnight, I could tell watching him in the post parade that he was going to challenge Macias early and fade in the end. He just looked wound up and anxious to run. He finished last of ten.
So, I hit the exacta, and I was a very happy person the rest of the day.
Moving on, I must mention the Palm Beach Stakes, which was run last Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Bim Bam, who was coming off of a nose victory over Triple Crown hopeful Interactif. Looking over the entries, I felt that Bim Bam wasn't going to run a top race, but I wasn't sure who was going to beat him. In the end, I couldn't decide, so I decided not to make any picks. At the wire, it was Paddy O'Prado in front by two and a half lengths. Dean's Kitten finished second, Our Champion third, and Asphalt fourth. Bim Bam finished fifth after being bumped at the start. The final time was excellent, 1:45 2/5 for the mile and an eighth. Of course, it was still a good second and a half off of the world record, but it was still an incredible time. Who knows? Perhaps Paddy O'Prado will some day be known as the world record holder for a mile and an eighth. We'll see where he goes from here.
Then there was the Herecomesthebride Stakes, identical to the Palm Beach Stakes except that it was for fillies. I liked Upperline and In the Rough, but both were defeated by Khancord Kid, who went wire-to-wire to win by a half of a length. Finishing second was Apple Charlotte, with Upperline in third. In the Rough finished up seventh.
Finally, there was the Santa Anita Handicap and the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. Both were for four year olds and up, but I mentioned them on my last post anyway. In the former, I went with St. Trinians, with Neko Bay to finish second and Misremembered to run third. St. Trinians ended up sixth, but Misremembered just held off Neko Bay for the win. In the latter, I went with the five year old mare Proviso, with Awesome Gem to finish second and Fluke to run third. As I watched, I could see that Fluke had the lead, and I could see where Awesome Gem was, but I couldn't find Proviso. As they turned for home, I was watching Awesome Gem, and I totally didn't see Proviso until I heard her name called. I looked back at Fluke and there she was, cutting into his lead with little ground remaining. Imagine how thrilled I was when she nailed him on the wire for a nose victory. With that win, she became the first filly or mare ever to win the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. And I saw it!
Now, with all of last week's races discussed, it's time to look at what's to come, beginning with the. . .
TAMPA BAY DERBY (gr. III) ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Wow ---- that's what I thought when I looked at the entries for this race. I thought there couldn't possibly be a race as tough to figure out as this one. Then I saw the entries for the Rebel Stakes. But we'll discuss that one later.
For now, let's stick to the Tampa Bay Derby. This mile and a sixteenth race drew Super Saver, impressive winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. It also attracted the impressive optional claiming race winner Odysseus, the improving Uptowncharlybrown, and the interesting colt Schoolyard Dreams. So let's take a closer look at the entries, beginning with the number one horse, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was victorious in his first two starts before making a huge class jump in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. In that race, he met up with top Triple Crown hopeful Rule, and ended up third, four lengths behind the winner, Rule, and one length behind the runner up, Schoolyard Dreams. Although it wasn't a win, it was a good race, and he was really closing at the finish. He should continue to improve, and should be a major threat on Saturday, especially with only 116 pounds on his back. As if that wasn't enough, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
The number two horse is Tuvia's Force. The son of Mineshaft comes off of a third to Wildcat Frankie and Bank the Eight in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The competition that beat him wasn't that great, but he was making up considerable ground late. He will likely improve off of that race. He'll have to really step up in class, but he'll only have to carry 116 pounds. His workouts have been great. He could run a huge race.
The number three horse is Gleam of Hope. This City Zip colt seems to run either really well or really badly. He doesn't appear to be on the same level as some of the other entries, but he could have a shot at the money. However, he will have to carry 122 pounds, which is the co-top weight with Super Saver. He will have to give away six pounds to all of the other entries. This could affect the outcome of the race. Still, I think he has a shot at hitting the board.
The number four horse is Slammy Boy. A son of Grand Slam, this will be his fifth race, and his first in stakes company. He has been against some decent competition, including Prince Will I Am, Outlaw Man, and Doubles Partner, but he doesn't look quite ready for this level of competition. He will carry 116 pounds.
This brings us to the number five horse, Schoolyard Dreams. In his first race, he finished third behind Afleet Again and Laus Deo. In his next start, he defeated Tempted to Tapit. In his first start of 2010, he won an optional claiming race, and then finished second to Rule in the Sam F. Davis Stakes while defeating Uptowncharlybrown. Carrying 116 pounds, he should be in the mix. It's also possible that he could provide some pace, as he likes to race near the lead. His workouts have been excellent.
Then there is the number six horse, the morning line favorite Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon likes to have the lead, a style that possibly cost him the Champagne Stakes last year. However, the colt redeemed himself by going wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. I believe that if he is to have any shot at the race, he is going to have to set a slow pace. Not necessarily snail like, but slower than in the Champagne. I think that if he goes three quarters of a mile in 1:10 3/5 tomorrow, he's going to be tough to catch. However, if he goes that same distance in 1:09 2/5, like he did in the Champagne, he's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he's going to hang on.
And so finally, we come to the number seven horse, Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon has the biggest question to answer. How good is he? In his last race, and Optional Claiming race, he exploded as they turned for home and drew off at will to win by fifteen lengths. It was a huge performance, his best so far. And it was at this same track, at this same distance. With only 116 pounds on his back, he looks ready to fire another big one. And it would be crazy if a horse with a name like his didn't turn out to be something special. Odysseus? That's a name that goes with the rest of the Triple Crown winners.
So, here are my selections for the race.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Odysseus
3 Super Saver
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Tuvia's Force
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Slammy Boy
That said, let me contradict everything. I think that Odysseus is capable of winning the race. He just keeps improving and should be able to handle the competition. It looks to me like Uptowncharlybrown is sitting on a big one, and he should be really closing late. As for Super Saver, I think that this is going to be a tough spot back, and that he may not be completely primed for a best effort. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts.
Getting back to the top two, I just couldn't decide whether Uptowncharlybrown or Odysseus looked better here. I had actually written Odysseus into the top spot when I remembered that Uptowncharlybrown would be wearing blinkers for the first time. So, after much thought, I reluctantly removed Odysseus from the top spot and put Uptowncharlybrown in his place. However, if I was going to bet the race, which I won't, I would go with both of them. Maybe place two exactas, one with Uptowncharlybrown on the top, the other with Odysseus in that place. Of course, it's hard to ignore Super Saver, but I guess that I just don't think that he's ready. Last of all, I think that Schoolyard Dreams has the potential to win the race, but I just don't like him here as well as I like the other three.
That said, I think that it is time to move on to the. . .
SAN FELIPE STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita Park, Race 9, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
A few days before the entries for this race were released, I sat down and thought about who might show up. I figured that I would see the names Caracortado, Dave in Dixie, and if I was lucky, American Lion. I couldn't imagine the race getting any better.
It did.
When the entries were announced, I was amazed to see Interactif among them, and even more surprised to see Sidney's Candy. All of a sudden, the race got just that much harder to figure out.
First off, I shall discuss the number one horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even has won no races so far, and appears to be out of place here. But after Paddy O'Prado won the Palm Beach Stakes for his first win last week, who knows? He will carry 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Tyler Baze. One final interesting fact, he is a Texas-bred, which I don't see all that often. Or maybe I've just never noticed them before. . .
Then there is the number two horse, Interactif. The son of Broken Vow won two grade III races on the turf last year before finishing third in a very tight Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He was then given a rest until February before reemerging for the Hallandale Beach Stakes. In that race, he tracked the pace set by Bim Bam, overtook the latter in the stretch, but lost the race when Bim Bam came back at him to grab a nose victory. He has not raced since then. As for tomorrow's race, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. If he likes the synthetics, he should be able to run a good race.
This brings us to the number three horse, Erbeia. The son of Pulpit has only a maiden win to his credit, and he looks a bit outclassed here. Tomorrow, he will carry 115 pounds and will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Then there is the number four horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow has won two of his four races. In 2009, he won the seven furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). In his 2010 debut, he tracked the pace set by Tiz Chrome in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and gave way late, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie. Tomorrow, he will wear blinkers for the first time. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and will carry 117 pounds. It's hard to say whether he will race close to the pace, as he did in the Robert B. Lewis, or try racing farther back. If he chooses the former, he'll have to prove that he can stay with Sidney's Candy. If he chooses the latter, he'll have to catch Sidney's Candy.
Moving on, we come to the number five horse, Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride will be making his two turn debut. He was very impressive in his last start, going wire-to-wire in the San Vincente Stakes to win by four and a half lengths. If he can carry his speed two turns, watch out. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
The number six horse is perhaps the most intriguing. In that gate will be Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union was the runner up in last month's Robert B. Lewis Stakes. In that race, he was perhaps the most impressive of everyone running, rocketing from behind with a late run in his first start since October 4th, 2009. I suspect that he will run even better tomorrow than he did last month. He will be ridden by Joel Rosario, and will carry only 115 pounds, four less than Caracortado will.
Speaking of Caracortado, he is the number seven horse. The impressive winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is undefeated in five starts so far, and is looking to make it six. A son of Cat Dreams, he is a gelding, so it would be really cool if he continues to improve. Perhaps he will become the next Kelso! Getting back to tomorrow's race, he will be ridden by Paul Atkinson and will carry 119 pounds, the high weight of the seven entries.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Interactif
5 Sidney's Candy
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Erbeia
Well, it was a tough race to figure out, but I guess I think that Caracortado is ready for another great performance. I feel that Dave in Dixie is only going to improve now that he has a prep under him. American Lion should also improve, based on the addition of blinkers and a two turn race under his belt. Interactif has been running very consistently, but I'm concerned that he just isn't good enough. Sidney's Candy definitely has talent, and I'm sure he will run a good race, but I suspect that the pace in this race may be a bit fast, and I've also noticed that closers do better at Santa Anita than front runners. As for Stephen's Got Hope and Erbeia, I feel that they just aren't capable of beating this field. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts. One final note, if Interactif races off the pace tomorrow, than ignore everything I said about him not being good enough. I think that if he goes back to coming from behind, he'll finish in the top three. Maybe he'll even win.
Now I believe that it is time to move on to the. . .
REBEL STAKES (gr. II) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 10, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Wow . . . what a race this is going to be. Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble's Promise. Three grade I winners. This is going to be exciting . . . and influential.
To begin with, Dublin and Lookin at Lucky are my top two picks for the Triple Crown, in that order. I also greatly respect Noble's Promise, and will not forget about Uh Oh Bango. The winner of this race, if he wins it the right way, will likely top my "The Twenty" list. So get ready. Let's take a look at who's running.
First off, there is the number one horse, Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman was most recently third in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. Carrying only 115 pounds, he should be in the mix. His style of coming from behind should benefit him in this race. The question is, can he out close Dublin?
Then there is the number two horse, Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won five of six starts, his only loss coming in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he finished second, beaten only a head by longshot Vale of York. In that race, Vale of York raced along the rail, while Lookin at Lucky was caught extremely wide on both turns. So it further proves how good a colt Lookin at Lucky is. He returned later that year to capture the CashCall Futurity by three quarters of a length, sewing up the Eclipse Award for champion two year old colt. However, he does have a habit of easing up when he takes the lead, which could lead to trouble if a colt like Dublin was to coming rocketing from behind and catch him off guard. So Bob Baffert, Lookin at Lucky's trainer, has added blinkers for the first time. He believes that they will help his talented colt stay focused. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and will carry 119 pounds.
Now we move on to the number three horse, Royal Express. The son of Royal Academy comes off of a runner up performance in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes behind Backtalk. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by P. Compton.
This brings us to the number four horse, Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit has not raced since finishing a neck behind top Kentucky Derby hopeful Rule in last December's Delta Jackpot Stakes. He has never finished worse than second, and should really be in the mix tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by G. W. Corbett.
But of course, we must not forget Pleasant Storm. The late-running son of Pleasant Tap failed to put in a rally while finishing seventh in last month's Southwest Stakes, but prior to that, he finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by J. K. Court. He doesn't appear to be as good as some of the other colts in this race, but if he's lucky, he could get a piece of the money.
Next up for discussion is the number six horse, Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been very consistent his entire career, winning three races, finishing second in two, and third in one from six starts. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity last fall, his best race probably cam in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he ran an incredible race to be beaten only a length by Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky. Following that performance, he finished second to Lookin at Lucky after making a big move in the CashCall Futurity. Like the latter, he will be making his first start since then. I believe that he is ready to run the best race of his career. He will carry 119 pounds, and will be ridden for the first time by Robby Albarado.
Finally, we come to the number seven horse, Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex was my early Kentucky Derby pick after he won the Hopeful Stakes, but I eventually switched over to Buddy's Saint. After Buddy's Saint ran into disaster in the Fountain of Youth, Dublin once again reclaimed the top spot as my pick for the Triple Crown. I was very proud of him when he ran second in the Southwest Stakes, and I think that he's ready for an even better effort tomorrow. With the extra sixteenth of a mile, as well as the presence of more pace, he should be flying late. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
So here are my selections for the Rebel Stakes. . .
1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Noble's Promise
4 Cardiff Giant
5 Uh Oh Bango
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
I think that the pace is going to be very fast tomorrow, and I think that Lookin at Lucky will be pushing it. With Noble's Promise, Royal Express, and Uh Oh Bango all interested in the lead, I think that the race is going to set up perfectly for Dublin. The latter already raced once this year, and should be ready for an excellent effort. Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise should be able to run great races, but I think that neither of them a primed to run their best. As for Cardiff Giant, he's already raced twice this year, and seems to be improving. Uh Oh Bango seems to be a fine colt, but I think that he will be cooked by the early pace. I could be wrong, but that's what I think. Pleasant Storm might be able to get a piece of the money, but I don't think he's quite good enough. Finally, I think that Royal Express will set the pace and tire in the drive. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although it's going to be fabulous watching all of the great races tomorrow, it's also unfortunate that I can't discuss all of them as thoroughly as I would like. So I will just quickly mention a few of the better races that shall be run this Saturday, beginning with the six furlong Cicada Stakes, held at Aqueduct.
The race is headlined by Bickersons, who is returning only two weeks after her fourth place finish in last month's Davona Dale Stakes. That race was perhaps a bit long for her, being one mile, and she should be able to rebound tomorrow. If anybody is going to beat her, I feel it will be either Female Drama, Liam's Dream, or Fuzzy Britches. It should be a good race.
Then of course, there is the Florida Oaks, run at Tampa Bay Downs. The big name here is She Be Wild, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Eclipse Award for champion two year old filly. In her last start, she was soundly beaten by Bickersons in the seven furlong Forward Gal Stakes. Also in the race is Diva Delight, winner of the Gasparilla and Suncoast Stakes this year. Both of those wins came at this track.
It looks like a tough race to win, but I feel that She Be Wild is ready to rebound, and has an excellent shot at winning. Diva Delight should also be in the mix, as will Cuff Me and Awesome Vow. I respect Miss Afleet Alex and Imaginary Saint as well. I can't wait for the results.
Finally, there are the two races that I have been waiting for the most: The Santa Margarita Invitational and the New Orleans Ladies. In the latter, 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Zenyatta will make her return, and in the former, Rachel Alexandra will make hers. Both fillies will likely be sent off as the favorites, but both have questions to answer. Can Zenyatta give away eight to twelve pounds in her first start since the early November? And is Rachel Alexandra fit enough to defeat her four rivals, having not raced since early September? I think that both of them will win rather easily. Zenyatta has the harder race to win, but I feel that she is better prepared and will run one of the best races of her life. Rachel Alexandra probably won't win by twenty, but she should win with relative ease. Zardana will likely be in the mix, as will Clear Sailing. They are going to have to work for their wins, but they are two of the greatest fillies of all time. I have no doubts that both of them will find a way to win. Twenty-six days until the Apple Blossom. . . let's hope it works out.
-Keelerman
Thursday, March 11, 2010
THE TWENTY, as of March 11th, 2010
1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
He's entered to run in the Rebel Stakes this Saturday. All questions should be answered there. The competition will be tough, but I believe that he's up to it.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
I was quite surprised to learn that he was going to run in the Rebel Stakes, as I assumed that the San Felipe would be his goal. We'll truly find out how good he is. It will also be his first start with blinkers on.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
The Tampa Bay Derby looks like a nice spot for him, but I'm thinking that it's going to be a tough one to win. If he can duplicate his performance in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club, he'll be hard to beat. If not, there are plenty of other entries who are capable of winning.
4 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
Looks primed for a huge effort in the San Felipe. He's already proven to be versatile, and he has won on dirt, even if it was at Fairplex Park. It will be tough competition, but I think he's up to the task. I think he may run even better than he did last time out.
5. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
I imagine that he is waiting for the Florida Derby just over a week from now. If he runs like he did in the Fountain of Youth, he'll be dangerous at Churchill.
6. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
He still has to answer the question of distance. Can he get a mile and a quarter, or even a mile and three-sixteenths, in the company he'll be facing? We'll find out soon enough. The Florida Derby may be next.
7. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
Her run in the Santa Anita Oaks, even though she finished third, was extremely impressive. And now that she intends to ship east for the Fantasy Stakes on dirt, I like her even more.
8. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
I guess that the Wood Memorial is next. I would love to see how he compares to Awesome Act. I still think he's got the pedigree to win a Triple Crown race, but the main question is will he be fit enough? Even if he doesn't make the Kentucky Derby, let's not forget that he could in the Preakness.
9 DAVE IN DIXIE Dixie Union - Risk, by Wavering Monarch John W. Sadler
He'll got another shot at Caracortado in the San Felipe. He should keep improving, but I think Caracortado will too. Can he run on dirt as well as he can on synthetics? We may not know until the first Saturday in May.
10. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
He gets the big test in the Tampa Bay Derby. Should he win, or even run a close second, expect to see him move up. If he wins impressively, expect to see him in my top five. Should he win without being pushed, MOVE OVER DUBLIN!!!
11. AWESOME ACT
Ran a big race in the Gotham, extremely impressive. He should be able to get a mile and a quarter without any problems. I would love to see him in the Wood Memorial. A match up with Buddy's Saint would really tell a lot.
12. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
I think that he ran a really good race in the Risen Star, maybe even improving off of the Lecomte. I don't think he is quite as strong a closer as Blind Luck, but he's more likely to start in the Kentucky Derby. The Louisiana Derby should tell us more.
13. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
I'm still trying to figure out where his next race will be. The Santa Anita Derby seems to be a possibility, but I think that the Lane's End Stakes is a more likely target. The date is perfect, and it might be a better place to get the experience that I think he still needs.
14. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
It appears that he will skip the Rebel and wait for a future race. He might run in the Arkansas Derby, but that's seven solid weeks of no racing. The Louisiana Derby looks like a good spot for him.
15. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
The San Felipe should tell us a lot about him. If he goes back to waiting off the pace, rather than pressing it, he could be dangerous. It depends on how fast they go up front. If he should finish up strongly, expect to see him move up a bit.
16. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN Limehouse - La Iluminada, by Langfuhr Alan S. Seewald
I think that he's ready for a huge effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. The question is, does he have the ability? We'll find out. Cute name.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
Wow, Noble's Promise, Lookin at Lucky, and Dublin all in the same race. Noble's Promise is going to have to run a huge race to win, but he does have one thing going for him. Front runners from California, like him, typically improve when they switch to dirt. Dublin and Lookin at Lucky are going to have to try and catch him.
18. ALPHIE'S BET
Hard to ignore his great run in the Sham Stakes. Sounds like the Blue Grass Stakes may be next. He also looks bred to get the distance of the Triple Crown races.
19. MENDIP
Ran a great race to defeat Vale of York and others out in Dubai. Should he run a big one in the UAE Derby later this month, he could turn into a real Triple Crown contender.
20. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
I had been anticipating his debut for some time, and he came through in a big way. Now he just needs to switch back to synthetic/dirt. I would love to see him in the Santa Anita Derby.
Now, due to the fact that my "Notable Other Horses" list has grown to extensive proportions, I think that it's time to seperate it into two lists, one labeled "Watch very closely" and the other labeled "Keep an eye on". The former is for horses who are sitting just out of my top twenty, horses that, with a good run, could make it into my top twenty. The latter is for horses who I don't really think are capable of winning a Triple Crown race but are worth watching anyway. So here are the two lists. . .
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
AFLEET EXPRESS I was disappointed by his last race, but I still think he needs more distance.
AIKENITE He's shown he can run on dirt, but I think that he is a bit below the best of his crop.
AMERICAN LION With blinkers on, he should improve in the San Felipe.
BACKTALK He's really in the #21 spot.
COYOTE LEGEND The Sunland Derby should be next. This colt may be something special.
DISCREETLY MINE I'm afraid that he may not be capable of going the Triple Crown distances.
DOUBLES PARTNER Not sure how he's going to get the graded earnings in time.
DROSSELMEYER Just needs to turn in a good effort in his next start.
FAST ALEX Everybody in Louisiana! Do not ignore this one!
FLY DOWN Where will he go next?
JACKSON BEND Will be ridden by Calvin Borel in the Wood Memorial. Who knows what that might do.
LENTENOR Will he go for glory in the Florida Derby?
MINER'S RESERVE Might just be something special.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE The Louisiana Derby would be great.
RADIOHEAD The Wood Memorial would be fantastic, and so would the Louisiana Derby.
SIDNEY'S CANDY Will take the next step in the San Felipe.
SOARING EMPIRE Where will he show up next?
STAY PUT Ran a good race in the Risen Star.
STORMING SAINT I think that he is ready for another good race. I think he could be another Mine That Bird type horse.
VALE OF YORK He'll get another shot at making the Triple Crown.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Had to drop him out of the Top Twenty when I realized that he hasn't had a workout in over a month. Is there something wrong with him?
YAWANNA TWIST Good run in the Gotham. I can just see him winning the Kentucky Derby at huge odds.
KEEP AN EYE ON
AFLEET AGAIN Ran a poor race in the Gotham.
A LITTLE WARM Appears to be a sprinter.
BIM BAM Disappointing in the Palm Beach.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
DIXIE COMMANDER Nice win in the Turf Paradise Derby.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY He's had a couple of workouts, so perhaps he's back on track.
FLY BY PHIL No news about him lately.
GENERAL MAXIMUS Appears to have little stamina.
HOMEBOYKRIS Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
HOTEP Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
KERA’S KITTEN I'm afraid that his possible lack of stamina, rather than the bumping, was the reason for his poor showing in the John Battaglia.
LETSGETITONMON Didn't fire in the Risen Star.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER He looks like a miler.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR Ran a disappointing race in the Sham.
NORTHERN GIANT Not sure what to think of him.
OUTLAW MAN Not sure what to think of him.
PADDY O'PRADO Ran a great race in the Palm Beach, perhaps the Blue Grass Stakes is next.
PEPPI KNOWS Disappointing in the Gotham, I don't think he has the ability.
PULSION I wonder where he'll go next.
SASSY IMAGE I expect that she'll rebound in her next start.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Needs more experience.
THE PROGRAM Finished third in the Sham, didn't run a great race.
TIZ CHROME He didn't enter the Gotham, so who knows where he'll go next.
WILDCAT FRANKIE Appears to be a sprinter.
-Keelerman
He's entered to run in the Rebel Stakes this Saturday. All questions should be answered there. The competition will be tough, but I believe that he's up to it.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
I was quite surprised to learn that he was going to run in the Rebel Stakes, as I assumed that the San Felipe would be his goal. We'll truly find out how good he is. It will also be his first start with blinkers on.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
The Tampa Bay Derby looks like a nice spot for him, but I'm thinking that it's going to be a tough one to win. If he can duplicate his performance in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club, he'll be hard to beat. If not, there are plenty of other entries who are capable of winning.
4 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
Looks primed for a huge effort in the San Felipe. He's already proven to be versatile, and he has won on dirt, even if it was at Fairplex Park. It will be tough competition, but I think he's up to the task. I think he may run even better than he did last time out.
5. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
I imagine that he is waiting for the Florida Derby just over a week from now. If he runs like he did in the Fountain of Youth, he'll be dangerous at Churchill.
6. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
He still has to answer the question of distance. Can he get a mile and a quarter, or even a mile and three-sixteenths, in the company he'll be facing? We'll find out soon enough. The Florida Derby may be next.
7. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
Her run in the Santa Anita Oaks, even though she finished third, was extremely impressive. And now that she intends to ship east for the Fantasy Stakes on dirt, I like her even more.
8. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
I guess that the Wood Memorial is next. I would love to see how he compares to Awesome Act. I still think he's got the pedigree to win a Triple Crown race, but the main question is will he be fit enough? Even if he doesn't make the Kentucky Derby, let's not forget that he could in the Preakness.
9 DAVE IN DIXIE Dixie Union - Risk, by Wavering Monarch John W. Sadler
He'll got another shot at Caracortado in the San Felipe. He should keep improving, but I think Caracortado will too. Can he run on dirt as well as he can on synthetics? We may not know until the first Saturday in May.
10. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
He gets the big test in the Tampa Bay Derby. Should he win, or even run a close second, expect to see him move up. If he wins impressively, expect to see him in my top five. Should he win without being pushed, MOVE OVER DUBLIN!!!
11. AWESOME ACT
Ran a big race in the Gotham, extremely impressive. He should be able to get a mile and a quarter without any problems. I would love to see him in the Wood Memorial. A match up with Buddy's Saint would really tell a lot.
12. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
I think that he ran a really good race in the Risen Star, maybe even improving off of the Lecomte. I don't think he is quite as strong a closer as Blind Luck, but he's more likely to start in the Kentucky Derby. The Louisiana Derby should tell us more.
13. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
I'm still trying to figure out where his next race will be. The Santa Anita Derby seems to be a possibility, but I think that the Lane's End Stakes is a more likely target. The date is perfect, and it might be a better place to get the experience that I think he still needs.
14. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
It appears that he will skip the Rebel and wait for a future race. He might run in the Arkansas Derby, but that's seven solid weeks of no racing. The Louisiana Derby looks like a good spot for him.
15. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
The San Felipe should tell us a lot about him. If he goes back to waiting off the pace, rather than pressing it, he could be dangerous. It depends on how fast they go up front. If he should finish up strongly, expect to see him move up a bit.
16. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN Limehouse - La Iluminada, by Langfuhr Alan S. Seewald
I think that he's ready for a huge effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. The question is, does he have the ability? We'll find out. Cute name.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
Wow, Noble's Promise, Lookin at Lucky, and Dublin all in the same race. Noble's Promise is going to have to run a huge race to win, but he does have one thing going for him. Front runners from California, like him, typically improve when they switch to dirt. Dublin and Lookin at Lucky are going to have to try and catch him.
18. ALPHIE'S BET
Hard to ignore his great run in the Sham Stakes. Sounds like the Blue Grass Stakes may be next. He also looks bred to get the distance of the Triple Crown races.
19. MENDIP
Ran a great race to defeat Vale of York and others out in Dubai. Should he run a big one in the UAE Derby later this month, he could turn into a real Triple Crown contender.
20. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
I had been anticipating his debut for some time, and he came through in a big way. Now he just needs to switch back to synthetic/dirt. I would love to see him in the Santa Anita Derby.
Now, due to the fact that my "Notable Other Horses" list has grown to extensive proportions, I think that it's time to seperate it into two lists, one labeled "Watch very closely" and the other labeled "Keep an eye on". The former is for horses who are sitting just out of my top twenty, horses that, with a good run, could make it into my top twenty. The latter is for horses who I don't really think are capable of winning a Triple Crown race but are worth watching anyway. So here are the two lists. . .
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
AFLEET EXPRESS I was disappointed by his last race, but I still think he needs more distance.
AIKENITE He's shown he can run on dirt, but I think that he is a bit below the best of his crop.
AMERICAN LION With blinkers on, he should improve in the San Felipe.
BACKTALK He's really in the #21 spot.
COYOTE LEGEND The Sunland Derby should be next. This colt may be something special.
DISCREETLY MINE I'm afraid that he may not be capable of going the Triple Crown distances.
DOUBLES PARTNER Not sure how he's going to get the graded earnings in time.
DROSSELMEYER Just needs to turn in a good effort in his next start.
FAST ALEX Everybody in Louisiana! Do not ignore this one!
FLY DOWN Where will he go next?
JACKSON BEND Will be ridden by Calvin Borel in the Wood Memorial. Who knows what that might do.
LENTENOR Will he go for glory in the Florida Derby?
MINER'S RESERVE Might just be something special.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE The Louisiana Derby would be great.
RADIOHEAD The Wood Memorial would be fantastic, and so would the Louisiana Derby.
SIDNEY'S CANDY Will take the next step in the San Felipe.
SOARING EMPIRE Where will he show up next?
STAY PUT Ran a good race in the Risen Star.
STORMING SAINT I think that he is ready for another good race. I think he could be another Mine That Bird type horse.
VALE OF YORK He'll get another shot at making the Triple Crown.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Had to drop him out of the Top Twenty when I realized that he hasn't had a workout in over a month. Is there something wrong with him?
YAWANNA TWIST Good run in the Gotham. I can just see him winning the Kentucky Derby at huge odds.
KEEP AN EYE ON
AFLEET AGAIN Ran a poor race in the Gotham.
A LITTLE WARM Appears to be a sprinter.
BIM BAM Disappointing in the Palm Beach.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
DIXIE COMMANDER Nice win in the Turf Paradise Derby.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY He's had a couple of workouts, so perhaps he's back on track.
FLY BY PHIL No news about him lately.
GENERAL MAXIMUS Appears to have little stamina.
HOMEBOYKRIS Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
HOTEP Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
KERA’S KITTEN I'm afraid that his possible lack of stamina, rather than the bumping, was the reason for his poor showing in the John Battaglia.
LETSGETITONMON Didn't fire in the Risen Star.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER He looks like a miler.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR Ran a disappointing race in the Sham.
NORTHERN GIANT Not sure what to think of him.
OUTLAW MAN Not sure what to think of him.
PADDY O'PRADO Ran a great race in the Palm Beach, perhaps the Blue Grass Stakes is next.
PEPPI KNOWS Disappointing in the Gotham, I don't think he has the ability.
PULSION I wonder where he'll go next.
SASSY IMAGE I expect that she'll rebound in her next start.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Needs more experience.
THE PROGRAM Finished third in the Sham, didn't run a great race.
TIZ CHROME He didn't enter the Gotham, so who knows where he'll go next.
WILDCAT FRANKIE Appears to be a sprinter.
-Keelerman
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)