1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
He's entered to run in the Rebel Stakes this Saturday. All questions should be answered there. The competition will be tough, but I believe that he's up to it.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
I was quite surprised to learn that he was going to run in the Rebel Stakes, as I assumed that the San Felipe would be his goal. We'll truly find out how good he is. It will also be his first start with blinkers on.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
The Tampa Bay Derby looks like a nice spot for him, but I'm thinking that it's going to be a tough one to win. If he can duplicate his performance in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club, he'll be hard to beat. If not, there are plenty of other entries who are capable of winning.
4 CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
Looks primed for a huge effort in the San Felipe. He's already proven to be versatile, and he has won on dirt, even if it was at Fairplex Park. It will be tough competition, but I think he's up to the task. I think he may run even better than he did last time out.
5. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
I imagine that he is waiting for the Florida Derby just over a week from now. If he runs like he did in the Fountain of Youth, he'll be dangerous at Churchill.
6. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
He still has to answer the question of distance. Can he get a mile and a quarter, or even a mile and three-sixteenths, in the company he'll be facing? We'll find out soon enough. The Florida Derby may be next.
7. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
Her run in the Santa Anita Oaks, even though she finished third, was extremely impressive. And now that she intends to ship east for the Fantasy Stakes on dirt, I like her even more.
8. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
I guess that the Wood Memorial is next. I would love to see how he compares to Awesome Act. I still think he's got the pedigree to win a Triple Crown race, but the main question is will he be fit enough? Even if he doesn't make the Kentucky Derby, let's not forget that he could in the Preakness.
9 DAVE IN DIXIE Dixie Union - Risk, by Wavering Monarch John W. Sadler
He'll got another shot at Caracortado in the San Felipe. He should keep improving, but I think Caracortado will too. Can he run on dirt as well as he can on synthetics? We may not know until the first Saturday in May.
10. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
He gets the big test in the Tampa Bay Derby. Should he win, or even run a close second, expect to see him move up. If he wins impressively, expect to see him in my top five. Should he win without being pushed, MOVE OVER DUBLIN!!!
11. AWESOME ACT
Ran a big race in the Gotham, extremely impressive. He should be able to get a mile and a quarter without any problems. I would love to see him in the Wood Memorial. A match up with Buddy's Saint would really tell a lot.
12. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
I think that he ran a really good race in the Risen Star, maybe even improving off of the Lecomte. I don't think he is quite as strong a closer as Blind Luck, but he's more likely to start in the Kentucky Derby. The Louisiana Derby should tell us more.
13. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
I'm still trying to figure out where his next race will be. The Santa Anita Derby seems to be a possibility, but I think that the Lane's End Stakes is a more likely target. The date is perfect, and it might be a better place to get the experience that I think he still needs.
14. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
It appears that he will skip the Rebel and wait for a future race. He might run in the Arkansas Derby, but that's seven solid weeks of no racing. The Louisiana Derby looks like a good spot for him.
15. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
The San Felipe should tell us a lot about him. If he goes back to waiting off the pace, rather than pressing it, he could be dangerous. It depends on how fast they go up front. If he should finish up strongly, expect to see him move up a bit.
16. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN Limehouse - La Iluminada, by Langfuhr Alan S. Seewald
I think that he's ready for a huge effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. The question is, does he have the ability? We'll find out. Cute name.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
Wow, Noble's Promise, Lookin at Lucky, and Dublin all in the same race. Noble's Promise is going to have to run a huge race to win, but he does have one thing going for him. Front runners from California, like him, typically improve when they switch to dirt. Dublin and Lookin at Lucky are going to have to try and catch him.
18. ALPHIE'S BET
Hard to ignore his great run in the Sham Stakes. Sounds like the Blue Grass Stakes may be next. He also looks bred to get the distance of the Triple Crown races.
19. MENDIP
Ran a great race to defeat Vale of York and others out in Dubai. Should he run a big one in the UAE Derby later this month, he could turn into a real Triple Crown contender.
20. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
I had been anticipating his debut for some time, and he came through in a big way. Now he just needs to switch back to synthetic/dirt. I would love to see him in the Santa Anita Derby.
Now, due to the fact that my "Notable Other Horses" list has grown to extensive proportions, I think that it's time to seperate it into two lists, one labeled "Watch very closely" and the other labeled "Keep an eye on". The former is for horses who are sitting just out of my top twenty, horses that, with a good run, could make it into my top twenty. The latter is for horses who I don't really think are capable of winning a Triple Crown race but are worth watching anyway. So here are the two lists. . .
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
AFLEET EXPRESS I was disappointed by his last race, but I still think he needs more distance.
AIKENITE He's shown he can run on dirt, but I think that he is a bit below the best of his crop.
AMERICAN LION With blinkers on, he should improve in the San Felipe.
BACKTALK He's really in the #21 spot.
COYOTE LEGEND The Sunland Derby should be next. This colt may be something special.
DISCREETLY MINE I'm afraid that he may not be capable of going the Triple Crown distances.
DOUBLES PARTNER Not sure how he's going to get the graded earnings in time.
DROSSELMEYER Just needs to turn in a good effort in his next start.
FAST ALEX Everybody in Louisiana! Do not ignore this one!
FLY DOWN Where will he go next?
JACKSON BEND Will be ridden by Calvin Borel in the Wood Memorial. Who knows what that might do.
LENTENOR Will he go for glory in the Florida Derby?
MINER'S RESERVE Might just be something special.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE The Louisiana Derby would be great.
RADIOHEAD The Wood Memorial would be fantastic, and so would the Louisiana Derby.
SIDNEY'S CANDY Will take the next step in the San Felipe.
SOARING EMPIRE Where will he show up next?
STAY PUT Ran a good race in the Risen Star.
STORMING SAINT I think that he is ready for another good race. I think he could be another Mine That Bird type horse.
VALE OF YORK He'll get another shot at making the Triple Crown.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Had to drop him out of the Top Twenty when I realized that he hasn't had a workout in over a month. Is there something wrong with him?
YAWANNA TWIST Good run in the Gotham. I can just see him winning the Kentucky Derby at huge odds.
KEEP AN EYE ON
AFLEET AGAIN Ran a poor race in the Gotham.
A LITTLE WARM Appears to be a sprinter.
BIM BAM Disappointing in the Palm Beach.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
DIXIE COMMANDER Nice win in the Turf Paradise Derby.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY He's had a couple of workouts, so perhaps he's back on track.
FLY BY PHIL No news about him lately.
GENERAL MAXIMUS Appears to have little stamina.
HOMEBOYKRIS Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
HOTEP Doesn't seem to quite have the ability.
KERA’S KITTEN I'm afraid that his possible lack of stamina, rather than the bumping, was the reason for his poor showing in the John Battaglia.
LETSGETITONMON Didn't fire in the Risen Star.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER He looks like a miler.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR Ran a disappointing race in the Sham.
NORTHERN GIANT Not sure what to think of him.
OUTLAW MAN Not sure what to think of him.
PADDY O'PRADO Ran a great race in the Palm Beach, perhaps the Blue Grass Stakes is next.
PEPPI KNOWS Disappointing in the Gotham, I don't think he has the ability.
PULSION I wonder where he'll go next.
SASSY IMAGE I expect that she'll rebound in her next start.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Needs more experience.
THE PROGRAM Finished third in the Sham, didn't run a great race.
TIZ CHROME He didn't enter the Gotham, so who knows where he'll go next.
WILDCAT FRANKIE Appears to be a sprinter.
-Keelerman
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