Well, nothing went as was expected last week. The Sham Stakes was canceled due to rain, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes was a traffic disaster with a disqualification, and there was a disqualification in the Borderland Derby. But looking ahead, there are some great Triple Crown prep races this Saturday. So let's take a look at what happened last week, and what will happen this week.
To begin with, I'll recap the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, run at Turfway Park. The race was an absolute mess, with much bumping, swerving, and blocking. Watching the replay, it was nearly impossible to figure out who started it all, but under the wire first was Codoy, who was promptly disqualified and placed second. The heavy favorite, Kera's Kitten, came home last after encountering heavy traffic. It's hard to say whether or not he would have presented a winning rally had he not been bumped, as he was beaten by twenty lengths, but I think he could have at least gotten a piece of the money.
So, after the disqualification, the winner turned out to be Vow to Wager, who as the longest shot in the field at odds of 23-1. He was one length behind Codoy at the wire, but had been bumped by the latter at the quarter pole. Finishing third was In the Paint, who really made a good run to come from last with only five sixteenths to go. He was four and a quarter lengths in front of Slewzoom, who raced evenly through out. Following him was Fish, who also suffered from traffic, Pathoki, who was bumped and couldn't sustain his rally, and Lucky Chuck, who was the leader with five sixteenths to go before being bumped and running out of gas in the stretch.
So here are the final results. . .
1 Vow to Wager
2 Codoy
3 In the Paint
4 Slewzoom
5 Fish
6 Pathoki
7 Lucky Chuck
8 Kera's Kitten
. . . versus my selections.
1 Kera’s Kitten
2 Lucky Chuck
3 Vow to Wager
4 In the Paint
5 Codoy
6 Slewzoom
7 Pathoki
8 Fish
So I didn't do too well. It's impossible to say whether my picks would have done better had there been no traffic issues, but the fact is Vow to Wager got his first stakes win and should only keep improving. He will likely be one of the favorites for next month's Lane's End Stakes, should he start.
Moving on to the next race, there was the Borderland Derby, at Sunland Park. The narrowest of favorites was Storming Saint, with Tango Tango the second choice. The latter was coming off of a last place finish to Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. In the end, it was Raise the Bridle who came under the wire first, but only a neck in front of Storming Saint. However, Storming Saint had been bumped hard by Raise the Bridle coming into stretch, and was impeded by him all the way to the wire. After a steward's inquiry, Storming Saint was declared the winner, with Raise the Bridle disqualified to second. It was nearly nine lengths back to the third place finisher, Amen Baby, who just barely held off Haitian Hero for the show. Guiltbyassociation finished fifth, with Tango Tango coming home sixth after failing to present the needed rally. In seventh was McKenna's Justice, with Chuchuluco in eigth. It was another fifty six and a half lengths back to longshot Nicky Boy, who was eased turning for home. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with him. So, Storming Saint is definitely one to watch for this month's Sunland Derby, and I would not be surprised if he made it to the Kentucky Derby.
The next race of note was a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Radiohead, and he ran to his odds, drawing off in the stretch to win by just over three lengths. Finishing second was last year's Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris, who just couldn't quite handle the winner. It was another half length back to Call Shot who raced third for much of the race and just couldn't keep with the first two finishers. Coming home fourth was General Maximus, who set the pace for three quarters of a mile before fading in the stretch. Still, he was only beaten one and a quarter lengths for second. It was another three lengths back to Quick Ride, and another three and a half back to Thomas got Even, who was last from the start. So although Radiohead is running out of time to make the Kentucky Derby, if he was to go for it in the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, or something similar, he might just make his presence felt, perhaps just enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby. It would be hard, but not impossible. We'll have to wait and see what happens.
Then of course, there was the Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Bickersons, who was coming off of a seven length win over last year's Champion 2yo Filly She Be Wild, who finished fifth. Also back from that race was the runner up Joanie's Catch. The second choice in the Davona Dale at odds of 2-1 was Amen Hallelujah, who had shipped out from California after winning the seven furlong Santa Ynez Stakes. The third choice was Sassy Image, winner of the Pocahontas and Golden Rod Stakes last fall at Churchill Downs. Comic Marvel and Mambo Fever completed the field.
Nobody ran like their odds said they would. First off, Bickersons ran the race I thought she would, setting the pace and tiring as they approached the quarter pole. She ended up fourth. Sassy Image, sent off at 3-1, race three wide into the first turn and faltered. She came home fifth. Mambo Fever, at odds of 15-1, rallied from last to grab third, with Joanie's Catch once again rallying for second at long odds, 27-1 to be exact. Comic Marvel was soundly beaten.
The impressive winner? Amen Hallelujah! With Julien Leparoux aboard, she proved that she may be a Kentucky Oaks contender, racing fourth after the first quarter of a mile before moving up to take the lead approaching the stretch. From there on, the race was hers, as she drew off to a six and a quarter length win.
It's hard to say why Sassy Image didn't run her race. I'm left wondering if there was something wrong with her. We'll find out more when she race again.
Now I shall quickly recap a few other little races that I discussed on my last "Triple Crown Countdown" post.
On that post, I mentioned that Gothics Peak would be running in a one mile maiden race on February 27th. I did not think that he would win, but for some reason, I had him in my Equibase Virtual Stable, so I thought I would mention it. He finished seventh, beaten nearly twenty lengths by the impressive winner Miner's Reserve, who won by five and a half lengths at odds of 3-1. His final time was 1:35 4/5, which was the same, actually slightly faster, than the time turned in by Radiohead one race prior. So Miner's Reserve may be one to watch.
Also on Gulfstream's Saturday card was another one mile maiden race. This one was won by favored Game On Dude, who broke in the air at the start, but moved up strongly through out to win by an easy three lengths over Our Dark Knight, who was my selection. Game On Dude appeared to win with something left, and I would say that he is one to watch.
Moving on, I mentioned that Richiegirlgonewild, upset winner of the Old Hat Stakes in January, would be competing in a five furlong turf allowance race. I wasn't sure what to think of this, but I was fairly certain that she wasn't going to win. Sent off as the fifth choice in the seven horse field, she failed to really threaten while racing four wide on the turn before giving way. The winner was the sixth choice Bernie the Maestro, who won at odds of only 5-1. It wasn't until after the race was run that I realized it was open to colts.
Of course, I must mention this next race, even if I didn't discuss it on my prior post. It was an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds. I felt confident that Fast Alex would come away the winner, and he did, passing favored Island Sould in the stretch to win by a length and a half. Both of them should be watched in their next starts, the winner especially. I believe that Fast Alex may be a serious Louisiana Derby contender. We'll see.
Then there was the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The favorite was Comedero, and he ran like a favorite should, drawing off impressively in the stretch to win by four and a half after leading the entire way around. The final time was 1:10 1/5, which is not a bad time at all. It could have been a bit faster, but it was still an excellent effort. He doesn't exactly look like a Triple Crown horse, but perhaps we saw a future Breeders' Cup Sprint winner. Finishing second was Backwater Blues, who just barely hung on to the place. Finishing third was Activity Report. I don't think that either of them will become Triple Crown horses, but they're worth watching just the same.
Of course, I mustn’t forget to mention the seven furlong Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. I mentioned that Turbo Speed would be running, but I really didn't think that he would run that well. At the wire, it was favored Don't Blame the Cat who was in front by a length. Regal Warrior, at almost 48-1, rallied from far back to snatch second, a half length in front of third place finisher Colt T. It was another half length back to Turbo Speed in fourth, beaten only two lengths for all the money. Turf Melody scratched.
Finally, I must note that Vale of York, upset winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, made his first start since then in a race out in Dubai. He ended up fifth, behind his talented stablemate Mendip. I was vaguely aware that the latter existed, and the he might have some talent, but I didn't realize that it was anything like this. Mendip is without a doubt one to watch, for he may make a name for himself in the Triple Crown this year.
Now I shall move on to discussing what will happen this Saturday, beginning with the. . .
GOTHAM STAKES (gr. III, Aqueduct, Race 10, March 6th)
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
This is going to be a tough race to figure out, for there is a lot of class and ability in this race. The one-two-three finishers in last month's Whirlaway Stakes are back for a rematch, but several shippers are here to take a shot at earning a spot in next month's Wood Memorial.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Three Day Rush. He finished third in the Whirlaway Stakes after being taken extremely wide by the heavy favorite Eightyfiveinfifty. Considering that he was beaten by a very small amount, it's possible that going wide cost him the race. His workouts have been just a bit slow, but he should be able to run a good race tomorrow. He will carry 116 pounds.
Then there is the number two horse Yawanna Twist, who is undefeated in two starts. His workouts have been rather slow, and this will be his first start around two turns. He has several questions to answer, but he could surprise everyone and run a nice race. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
The number three horse is Nacho Man, who has not raced since last August. It's possible that he could run well off of such a long layoff, but it's more likely that he will not be ready for a top effort. He will also carry 116 pounds.
The number four horse is perhaps the most interesting of the ten entries, being a shipper from England. His name is Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since finishing fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. I believe that he is ready for a good effort under only 116 pounds. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Still, he only arrived in New York a few days ago, and it's possible that he may be a little tired from the long trip. We'll find out for sure tomorrow. If he likes dirt as much as he liked Santa Anita's synthetic surfaces, he could be very dangerous on the Triple Crown Trail, as he seems to have a very good late run.
The number five horse is the very unlucky I've Got A Fever, who has been running in the shadow of some very good horses. Under 116 pounds, it's possible that he could turn in a break through performance. It's possible that he could set the early pace.
The number six horse is Peppi Knows, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes by one length. Carrying the co-high weight of 120 pounds, it's possible that he is not ready for another winning run. But it's also possible that he has improved since his last race. He will be ridden by Richard Migliore.
The number seven horse is Shrimp Dancer, whom I know very little about. He will carry 116 pounds.
The number eight horse is Turf Melody, who will be carrying co-top weight of 120 pounds. The colt has shown that he has ability, but may not be quite as good as some of the other horses in this race. He could turn in a winning performance, but I think it's more likely that he won't.
The number nine horse is Afleet Again, runner up in the Whirlaway Stakes after closing a lot of ground. The son of Afleet Alex in not nominated to the Triple Crown, but that may change if he turns in a good effort tomorrow. Carrying only 116 pounds, I think that he's ready for an excellent performance.
Finally, there is the number ten horse, Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and looks ready to turn in an excellent run, based on his last race and his most recent workouts. With only 116 pounds on his back, he should run huge. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
So here are my selections for the race. . .
1 Afleet Again
2 Wow Wow Wow
3 Awesome Act
4 Three Day Rush
5 Peppi Knows
6 I've Got the Fever
7 Turf Melody
8 Nacho Friend
9 Shrimp Dancer
10 Yawanna Twist
I know that I'm taking a chance on Afleet Again, but I really think that he is capable of winning this race. Awesome Act seems to have a good late run, but I'm a little concerned about him not having a start on dirt, and I'm really concerned about him shipping to New York only a few days ago. I think that Wow Wow Wow is ready for a huge effort, but I think that Peppi Knows is not. Those are my final thoughts on this race.
Now it is time to move on to the Sham Stakes. This race was supposed to be run on the 27th of February, but was postponed due to rain. So I'll just repost what I posted last week and update it a bit.
SHAM STAKES (gr. III, Santa Anita Park, Race 7, March 6th)
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is perhaps the most interesting race of the weekend, as it drew several regarded colts who intend to prove that they are of Triple Crown caliber.
First off, there is The Program, a son of Harlan’s Holiday. The colt is coming off of a fine allowance victory over Indian Firewater, who in his next start finished second in the Turf Paradise Derby.
The Program, who is trained by Bob Baffert, should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. He will carry co-high weight of 118 pounds and will be ridden by Martin Garcia. He will start from post one.
But he won’t be alone, and the extremely promising Nextdoorneighbor figures to make him earn it. The son of Lido Palace comes into the Sham off of an unbelievable six furlong workout on January 15th. The colt was timed going the distance in 1:10 3/5 handily. He has already shown that he can go two turns, breaking his maiden on the third attempt going a mile and a sixteenth by four lengths in 1:43 4/5. I would not be surprise if he won the race. Still, he will have to break from post ten, and there is always the possibility that he could be caught wide going into the first turn. But perhaps he is talented enough to overcome it. He will carry 116 pounds, two less than The Program, and will be ridden by Mike Smith.
But Kettle River should also make his presence felt. The son of Congaree comes off of a win in a mile and a sixteenth allowance race in which he came from behind to score a three quarters of a length victory with The Program finishing third. He will carry the top weight of 118 pounds, along with The Program, and will be ridden by Brice Blanc. He has turned in some excellent workouts and should be coming late. He will break from post two.
Starting from post three will be Straightomidnight, who has already made eleven starts. He has only had one workout during the past sixty days, but it was a good one. He might be able to get a piece of the money.
In post four is Outlaw Man, who I can’t help but pull for. A short while back, I randomly selected from the 366 horses nominated to the Triple Crown. The plan was that I would follow the selected horse wherever he went. I figured that the odds of him turning up anywhere along the Triple Crown Trail were fairly small, so imagine my surprise when I learn that he has been entered in a grade III prep race at Santa Anita! I was thrilled, and I was even more thrilled when I realized that he might actually have a chance at winning today. He comes into the Sham off of a nose victory in a nine furlong turf race on January 27th. Maybe he will get a piece of the money, and perhaps he could even pull off the upset and win the race. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Garrett Gomez, who should be able to get the most out of him.
Moving on, there is Setsuko, who has been very consistent so far. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is trained by Richard Mandella and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He has turned in some better than average workouts and may be able to get a piece of the money.
Finally, we come down to Wolf Tail, Viva Macho, El Mirage King, an Alphie’s Bet. All will carry 116 pounds, and all have had average workouts. Everyone one seems capable of finishing on the board, but I also feel that El Mirage King could be in the mix. He comes into the race off of a win in a turf race, he will be ridden by Tyler Baze, and his workouts have been very good, the last one in particular. I can see him running an excellent race, and maybe even winning.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Wolf Tail
8 Alphie’s Bet
9 Straightomidnight
10 Viva Macho
It was very tough deciding who to put on top, but I finally chose Nextdoorneighbor because his workouts have been amazing and he has show some great talent so far. The Program should run a nice race, and the finish should be very close. Kettle River has beaten The Program before, but I don't think this is his day. Outlaw Man should be making up some ground in the stretch, while El Mirage King should run a good race as well. As I am running out of time, I won't discuss the race any further, but my final thought is that I may have Setsuko too low, and that he is probably capable of winning the race. We'll see what happens.
Now for my update. I see that Viva Macho and Straightomidnight have decided not to run this time around. This allowed Marcello and Boulder Creek to get into the race. Also, the post positions have been adjusted. So this week, the post positions are as follow:
#1 Marcello
#2 The Program
#3 Outlaw Man
#4 El Mirage King
#5 Boulder Creek
#6 Kettle River
#7 Setsuko
#8 Wolf Tail
#9 Nextdoorneighbor
#10 Alphie's Bet
So along with that, my updated selections are as follow. . .
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Marcello
8 Wolf Tail
9 Boulder Creek
10 Alphie's Bet
Still. . . I have this feeling that Outlaw Man is capable of winning the race. I'm not sure why, but I just think that he may be a better horse than many think. I feel the same way about El Mirage King, although not as strongly. Every time I look at the entries, all I can think is "Outlaw Man has an excellent chance here. . ." but I'm basing this off of nothing. Did I read something somewhere about him? I don't remember. It reminds me of last November, when I had the feeling that there was going to be a huge upset in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I was positive that Zensational was not going to win the race, but I wasn't really sure who was going to beat him. Finally, I went with Gayego, and although he did finish in front of Zensational, he came home fourth, beaten only a head for the win by three other longshots. The winner was 25-1 Dancing in Silks. So I had the right idea, but the wrong horse.
That said, I shall now move on to the. . .
SANTA ANITA OAKS (gr. I, Santa Anita Park, Race 8, March 6th)
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race is going to be fascinating, and extremely important. The favorite will likely be Blind Luck, and should she win nicely here tomorrow, she may be Santa Anita Derby bound. And if she was to win nicely there, perhaps she'll start in the Kentucky Derby. . .
. . . but that's getting a bit too far ahead. Let's take a look at the Santa Anita Oaks first and figure out what her chances of winning are, before we discuss the Triple Crown.
The Santa Anita Oaks, only the second grade I race for three year olds run this year, has drawn a tough field of eight, including Blind Luck. Her most worthy challenger will likely by Crisp, who disappointed in last month's Las Virgenes by running fourth behind Blind Luck. She will likely rebound off of the effort, but it's hard to say for sure. Crisp will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other filly in the race, and will be ridden by J. Rosario. She is one of the three entries trained by John Sadler in this race.
But we must not ignore Zilva. Zilva comes off of a poor finish behind Crisp in January's Santa Ysabel Stakes as the heavy favorite. Prior to that, she had finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. She was only 1 3/4 lengths behind Blind Luck. She may be able to turn in an excellent run, perhaps even upset the race.
Of course, no race at Santa Anita of any prestige is complete without Garrett Gomez riding someone. He will be on All Due Respect. I can't quite remember where I have heard her name before, but it's entirely possible that she could hit the board at long odds. And with Gomez riding, who knows?
Now I must discuss Blind Luck. Runner up for Champion 2yo Filly last year, she was the impressive winner of the Hollywood Starlet Stakes at the end of 2009. She kicked of her 2010 season by winning the Las Virgenes by a hard fought nose. Still, the fractions of the Las Virgenes were snail like, and I would not have been surprised if she had been unable to close. But she did. I imagine that the fractions tomorrow will be slightly faster, so Blind Luck should have a little easier time.
Sister Dawn, Riviera Chic, Warren's Jitterbug, and Cozi Rosie complete the field. Sister Dawn and Cozi Rosie are the other two John Sadler entries. I can't help but wonder if they are here to set up the race for Crisp. Perhaps they will help set the right fractions for her? It's hard to say. We'll find out tomorrow.
So here are my final selections. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 All Due Respect
4 Sister Dawn
5 Zilva
6 Warren's Jitterbug
7 Cozi Rosie
8 Riveria Chic
Of course, this is a really tough race to figure out. I think that Blind Luck will win the race fairly easily, with Crisp rebounding off of her poor effort in the Las Virgenes. I'm really not sure why Zilva was favored so heavily in the Santa Ysabel, as she didn't seem that much better to me. I don't think she is quite ready for this race here today. I believe that Garrett Gomez will ride an excellent race on All Due Respect, and Sister Dawn will run a nice one as well. My final thought is that I may be ignoring Zilva, as it's very possible that she could run a great race. We'll see what happens.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As I come to the end of this post, I must mention a few others races that may affect the outcome of the Triple Crown.
The first one is the $60,000 Pasadena Stakes, for three year olds. It is a one mile turf race at Santa Anita Park. It has actually drawn a very good field, including Macias, Make Music for Me, Straightomidnight, and Jairzihno. Macias is coming off of a nice win in the Baffle Stakes last month at this same track, while Make Music for Me is making his highly anticipated three year old debut. The way I see it, this race is wide open. Any one of the ten entries seem to have the ability to win. I find it interesting to see that Make Music for Me is making his first start back on the turf, but perhaps there were no other good synthetic races that fit his schedule.
The second race is the nine furlong grade III Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Bim Bam, who upset Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes last December, is expected the keep on winning. Asphalt, Dean's Kitten, Our Champion, and Cat Park have returned from the Hallandale to try him again, while newcomers Paddy O'Prado, Lethal Combination, Center Divider, and Mutiny will try and get a piece of it. I feel that Bim Bam has an excellent shot at winning, as he has been a very consistent colt. He should be able to finish in the top three without any trouble. However, if he should win the race, I don't think it will be by much. He doesn't seem to tower over the other entries. But like I said, he should run a great race.
The third race is the grade III Herecomesthebride Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It is identical to the Palm Beach Stakes, except that it is for fillies. I would go into a deep discussion, but I like Upperline, In the Rough, and Check the Label. This race probably won't turn out a Triple Crown contender, but who knows? Maybe one of them will win the Kentucky Oaks!
Now, I believe that I should mention this race next race, even if it is not a Triple Crown prep race. It is the Santa Anita Handicap, for four year olds and up. The most interesting horse in the race is St. Trinians, a five year old mare who will attempt to become the first filly or mare in history to win the Santa Anita Handicap. However, several good horses have turned out to challenge her, including Misremembered, Jeranimo, Delightful Kiss, Marsh Side, Mast Track, Loup Breton, and Neko Bay. That's how tough the field is. I feel that every horse in this race has a shot at winning, there is no horse here who appears completely outclassed. I've got to say that St. Trinians looks good, but it's going to be a tough race to win. If she can do it, I'll write up an entire post about the race, for it would be a race worth remembering.
Finally, it's worth noting that the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap is run tomorrow, even if it is not a Triple Crown prep. This should be a great race to watch, for the five year old mare Tucsan Evening will be trying males for the first time. Also in the race is another five year old mare in Proviso, who should be able to run a nice race. But there will be several old geldings here to try and stop them, including the seven year old warrior Awesome Gem, who is still searching for his first grade I win. Monzante may have a shot at the race as well, while Acclamation and Battle of Hastings should make their presence felt as well. Finally, there is Fluke, who is not a gelding, but a very good five year old. He upset the grade I Citation Handicap late last November, and will be dangerous if he repeats that effort today.
In conclusion, it should be a great day of races. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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