Things are really starting to get hot along the Triple Crown Trail. Last week, the Florida Derby was run. This week, the Lane's End Stakes, the Louisiana Derby, the UAE Derby in Dubai, and the Sunland Derby are all going to be influential prep races that will likely turn up a sleeper or two. We're going to thoroughly examine several races, but to begin this post, I shall recap what happened last week, beginning with the Florida Derby.
Wow. . . what an upset. Well, I guess I'm not really surprised. I guessed that Rule was not going to go a mile and an eighth in this company, and that someone was going to catch him inside the final eighth. I figured that Miner's Reserve was going to be some sort of Big Brown type horse who comes from the allowance ranks to grab a grade I and launch himself into the Derby picture. Well, Miner's Reserve didn't quite get it done, but I had the right idea.
The winner was Ice Box. The son of Pulpit tried four times to break his maiden last year, finally getting the job done on the fourth attempt. In January, he made his three year old debut in an allowance race, winning by a half length, with Pleasant Prince finishing second. Then he made a big move in the Fountain of Youth before fading in the drive after a tough trip and finishing fifth, twelve lengths behind victorious Eskendereya.
That brought him to the Florida Derby, and boy did he put on a show. Sitting last for six furlongs, he began his bid with three furlongs to go and got home a nose in front of his old friend Pleasant Prince. With Ice Box winning at almost 21-1, and Pleasant Prince finishing second at 29-1, a $2.00 exacta paid an incredible $509.60. A $1 trifecta paid $1,222.90, while the Superfecta paid a ridiculous $15,228.10. Congratulations to anyone who hit it.
Getting back to the race, it seemed to defy logic. Everyone expected Rule to be the pace setter, and he was. . . sort of. However, for nearly a mile, he was second, a head behind Pulsion, who has always been a closer. For a solid mile those two were heads apart, cutting out solid fractions of :23 1/5, :46 2/5, and 1:10 3/5. With those fractions, I'm sort of surprised that Rule held third, four and a half lengths clear of Lentenor. As for my official selection, Miner's Reserve, he ran nicely but wide for about five furlongs and then steadily dropped back to end up tenth. So much for the Big Brown angle.
So here are the results. . .
1 Ice Box
2 Pleasant Prince
3 Rule
4 Lentenor
5 First Dude
6 Pulsion
7 Game On Dude
8 Soaring Empire
9 Radiohead
10 Miner's Reserve
11 Best Actor
. . . versus my selections…
1 Miner's Reserve
2 Lentenor
3 Rule
4 Soaring Empire
5 Radiohead
6 Game On Dude
7 First Dude
8 Ice Box
9 Pulsion
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Best Actor
So, things didn't quite go the way I though they would. It is obvious that Miner's Reserve was not ready for the level of competition. Lentenor ran a great race considering the huge step up in class he took, but it's hats off to Ice Box and Pleasant Prince, who are beginning to develop perhaps just a bit of a rivalry. . .
OTHER RACE RESULTS
As usual, there were other great races that I discussed briefly last week that could affect the outcome of the Triple Crown. So of course, I should mention the results, beginning with the seven furlong Swale Stakes.
On the undercard of the Florida Derby, the heavy favorite was D' Funnybone, who ran like a heavy favorite. Sitting right behind Hear Ye Hear Ye after a quarter of a mile, he quickly took the lead and opened up a two and a half length advantage turning for home. However, Ibboyee made him earn it, closing ground late and falling just over a length short of D' Funnybone. Privilaged, at 35-1, took third, while Hear Ye Hear Ye ended up fourth. D' Funnybone is being pointed to the Preakness Stakes. It's hard to say if he will have any success there, but we'll find out in about seven weeks.
Then there was the six furlong Cicada Stakes at Aqueduct. Postponed one week due to bad weather, the heavy favorite was Bickersons. Female Drama was respected, as was Liam's Dream. I didn't like Bickersons here, although I couldn't really say why. I just had a feeling that this wasn't her day. I liked Liam's Dream.
So how pleasing it was when Liam's Dream claimed a length and a half victory! The daughter of Saint Liam raced towards the back of the pack early, while Southern Truth and Bickersons dueled for the early lead. Approaching the homestretch, Liam's Dream burst through on the rail to grab her victory, while Romantic Hideaway rallied for second. Indian Burn came home third after making a six wide move, Fuzzy Britches finished fourth, Southern Truth fifth, and Bickersons was sixth, finishing in front of only Female Drama. I'm not really sure what to think of Bickersons, but it's obvious to me that Liam's Dream is one to watch on the way to the Kentucky Oaks.
Finally, we come to the nine furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes, also on the undercard of the Florida Derby. The slightest of favorites was Christine Daae, with Amen Hallelujah the second choice. I greatly respected Joanie's Catch, despite her odds of 12-1, but didn't really like Switch. I felt that Devil May Care might have a shot at winning the race, but I didn't like her as much as I liked Amen Hallelujah.
Who do you think won? Devil May Care, of course. And rather easily in fact, by nearly three lengths. Amen Hallelujah came in second, five lengths in front of Joanie's Catch. Switch finished fourth, with Christine Daae in fifth, beaten almost fourteen lengths by the winner. Danny's Friend was another twenty seven lengths back. So, Devil May Care has made it very clear that she has Kentucky Oaks potential, while Amen Hallelujah also cemented her reputation. Joanie's Catch is definitely one to watch, while I'm not sure what to think of Christine Daae. She may be able to rebound off of this effort, but when the real running began today, she just didn't have what it takes. Interestingly, Devil May Care completely her nine furlongs slightly faster than Ice Box did in the Florida Derby four races later. Just thought I'd mention it, perhaps Devil May Care will turn out to be the next Rachel Alexandra!
Now I believe that it is time to discuss what is going to happen this week, beginning with the. . .
LOUISIANA DERBY (gr. II) ---- Fair Grounds, Race 10, March 27th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
With only five weeks left before the Kentucky Derby, the battle for first and second in this race is very important. The runners in this race will not be getting another opportunity to secure graded earnings. Of course, they can always go to the Preakness Stakes, or the Belmont Stakes, but there is only one Kentucky Derby. And due to this race's position on the calendar, five weeks until the Derby, it is possibly the best Kentucky Derby prep time wise. Let's take a look at who's running. . .
The number one horse is Hotep. The son of A.P. Indy has won two of five starts, but has yet to show any great talent against this level of competition. He comes into tomorrow’s race off of a tenth place finish in the Risen Star, beaten ten and a half lengths by Discreetly Mine. He will carry 122 pounds, and will be ridden by P. Husbands.
Then there is the number two horse, Discreetly Mine. The son of Unbridled’s Song has shown some ability, but comes into the race off of a fourth place finish behind Conveyance, Dublin, and Cardiff Giant in the Southwest Stakes last month. He will likely be a major contender here tomorrow, and will be ridden by R. Maragh.
Another major contender is Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft has really been improving, and comes into the Louisiana Derby off of a win in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park where he defeated First Dude by a head. First Dude went on to finish fifth in the Florida Derby. Ridden tomorrow by Jose Lezcano, this will be his first try at a stakes race. As he is a late closer, he will need a solid pace up front if he is to present his rally.
But we can’t ignore the number four horse The Program. The son of Harlan’s Holiday comes off of a third place finish behind Alphie’s Bet and Setsuko in the Sham Stakes three weeks ago. He has already started eight times, and this will be his first start outside of California. I think that he is ready to run a huge race. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani. I think that his morning line odds of 10-1 are a little high. I think that he has a good shot at finishing in the top three.
Then there is the number five horse A Little Warm. The son of Stormin Fever has morning line odds of 4-1, but I think that he has a huge chance at winning tomorrow. There are still questions about how far he can go, but if stamina is no problem, he’ll be right there. He comes into the Louisiana Derby off of a second place finish to D’ Funnybone in the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes. Prior to that, he won the six furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes. This will be his longest race to date. He will be ridden by D. Cohen.
This brings us to the number six horse Ron the Greek. The son of Full Mandate won the grade III Lecomte Stakes at this track before finishing sixth in the Risen Star Stakes, despite closing fast after incredibly slow fractions. If the pace is decent here tomorrow, he’ll be flying late. I’m confident that he is ready for a huge effort. He will be ridden by J. Graham.
But we cannot forget the number seven horse, Discreetly Mine. The son of Mineshaft had been racing against, and defeating, many good horses last year, beating Super Saver and Aspire while finishing behind the likes of Dublin, D’ Funnybone, and Homeboykris. He established himself as a major Triple Crown contender with a win in the mile and a sixteenth Risen Star Stakes at this track, although he was able to get away with a ridiculously slow pace in that race while racing unchallenged on the lead. It’s tough to say how well he will run if the pace is hot, but it is believed that he can rate off the pace if necessary. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow.
Then there is the number eight horse Island Soul. The son of Perfect Soul comes into the Louisiana Derby off of a runner up performance behind Fast Alex in an allowance optional claiming race at this same track. He doesn’t seem to be quite on the same level as some of the other entries here tomorrow, but with Robby Albarado in the saddle, you never know.
But don’t forget the number nine horse Stay Put. The son of Broken Vow ran fifth in the Risen Star, but like Ron the Greek, closed a lot of ground despite the slow pace. If the pace is a good one tomorrow, he’ll be coming late. He will be ridden by H. Theriot.
Now we come to the number ten horse, Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow comes into tomorrow’s race off of an eighth place finish behind Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, he has been very inconsistent, sometimes running great, sometimes running terrible. However, his workouts have been very sharp, and he may be coming into this race fit and ready for a huge effort. He will likely set the pace tomorrow, and will probably make sure that Discreetly Mine doesn’t go too slow early on.
This brings us to the number eleven horse, Mister Marti Gras. This is a big step up in class for him, but he may be a contender if the pace is fast. This late closing son of Belong to Me will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. Who knows? This colt could be the one who launches himself into the Triple Crown picture late.
Then there is the number twelve horse Backtrack. The son of Grand Slam is undefeated in two starts so far, but has never started at any distance other than six furlongs. Still, he has the potential to run a big one, and is not to be ignored. He might just get there. He will be ridden by S. Sellers.
Finally, we come to the number thirteen horse Drosselmeyer. The third choice on the morning line odds, I would not be surprised if he is sent off as the favorite. The son of Distorted Humor comes into the Lousiana Derby off of a fourth place finish behind Discreetly Mine, Tempted to Tapit, and Northern Giant in the Risen Start Stakes, but this closer, like every other in that race, was unable to close into the slow pace. I think he is ready to run a good race, but perhaps not a winning one. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.
So, here are my selections. . .
1 Ron the Greek
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 Stay Put
6 The Program
7 A Little Warm
8 Backtrack
9 Mission Impazible
10 Mister Marti Gras
11 Wow Wow Wow
12 Island Soul
13 Hotep
Now, this was a really tough race to figure out. It was very similar to the Florida Derby, with many unproven colts to try and figure out. Now, I believe that Ron the Greek is ready to rebound off of his sixth place finish in the Risen Star Stakes, partly because the pace is going to be faster tomorrow and partly because I think he is improving. Discreetly Mine has shown talent, and I think that he is a very good three year old, but I just don’t think that he is going to completely get this distance against this field. It should be close, but that’s what I think. Drosselmeyer should be a huge contender, but he will have to break from post thirteen, which is going to make things hard for him. I can’t believe that I’m putting The Program in the sixth spot, because I think that he is ready to run the race of his life, but I’m concerned that he just isn’t good enough. If I was going to go with a longshot to win the race, I would pick Backtrack. With morning line odds of 30-1, I think he is capable of running a winning race. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
I’m going to make this quick because I’m low on time, but there are many other great Triple Crown prep races this week, including the Lane’s End Stakes, which I will briefly discuss right now.
The nine furlong Lane’s End Stakes has drawn several great runners, all with great potential. To begin with, there is the heavy favorite, Connemara. He comes into the race off of a win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields and is a potential sleeper on the Triple Crown Trail. I think that he is the deserving favorite and will run a great race tomorrow. Other top contenders include Double’s Partner, who beat Florida Derby fourth place finisher Lentenor last time out, Ranger Heartly, wire-to-wire winner of the California Derby, Outlaw Man, fourth in the Sham Stakes earlier this month, Northern Giant, third in the Risen Star Stakes last month, Letsgetitonmon, and Vow to Wager, winner of the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last month via disqualification. It should be a great race, and I think that a major Triple Crown contender could come from this race. Watch Northern Giant carefully!
Then there is the UAE Derby out in Dubai. It’s about the same distance as the Preakness Stakes, and with a two million dollar purse, it might just send out a Kentucky Derby contender.
Now, I haven’t heard of every entry in the race, but I really like Mendip, and I respect Frozen Power and Musir. It should be a great race.
But don’t forget the the Sunland Derby in New Mexico. Graded for the first time ever, the race, with its $800,000 purse, has drawn a very nice field with several good contenders. The heavy morning line favorite is Conveyance, with Tempted to Tapit and Nacho Friend given some respect as well. Howver, I feel that the 8-1 fifth choice, Stormin Saint, has an excellent shot at securing the win. He comes into the race off of a narrow loss in the Borderland Derby, but was placed first via disqualification of the “winner”. It should be a great race. Just remember that Mine That Bird finished fourth here last year before heading to Kentucky. . .
Finally, I should mention that the Dubai World Cup is tomorrow, along with all of the undercard races. Of course, I’ll be cheering on Gio Ponti in his quest to tackle Curlin’s North American earnings record, and I’ll be really cheering for Presious Passion in the Dubia Sheema Classic.
It’s going to be a great weekend of racing. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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