1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
His final prep is going to come in the Santa Anita Derby. I would like to see him really fight for the win, to get him fit and ready for the Triple Crown. If he wins it, he will become the first two year old champion to win the race since. . . Affirmed.
2. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
His final prep will come in the Blue Grass Stakes. I'm not sure if he can win it, but I do believe that it will get him ready. I think he is going to keep improving.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I can't wait to see this colt in the Arkansas Derby. First, second, or third, I think he is Kentucky Derby caliber and is going to run the race of his life May 1st.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
He doesn't need to win the Wood Memorial, and can even regress a little off of the Fountain of Youth, but I need to see him run a good race again before I move him up any higher. I want proof that he can turn in those efforts with consistency.
5. CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
He did lose his last start, but let's get serious. He's five for six, and obviously has talent. I think that he and Lookin at Lucky are going to run 1-2, but I'm not sure who will come home on top. Graded earnings are a bit of a concern, but even a third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby should do the job.
6. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
Ran a great race in the Fantasy Stakes, overcoming a pretty slow pace and a lot of ground to grab a three length win. Just remember that Rachel Alexandra won this race last year, and Eight Belles the year before. . .
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
It's hard to say if the Euro-bounce will affect him in the Wood Memorial, but I think that he is legitimate. Graded earnings aren't a concern, and as long as he finishes in the top three tomorrow, I'll be satisfied.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
He won't be getting any more preps before the Kentucky Derby, so I'm left wondering if he is Triple Crown caliber or not. It's possible that he is a bit below top three year old form, but he was very impressive in the Florida Derby.
9. ENDORSEMENT Distorted Humor - Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy Shannon Ritter
He came within one fifth of a second of breaking the Sunland Park track record as he mowed down Conveyance to win by three lengths. When Rule faltered, Endorsement stepped up. I think that he's better than most people think.
10. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
I'm not sure how far he wants to go, but he'll give us an idea in the Arkansas Derby. With Dublin, and possibly Uh Oh Bango and Super Saver running against him, it's going to be a great race. And it will tell us everything.
11. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
Looked good winning the Louisiana Derby, but I don't think that he is quite as good as the above ten. Still, it was a breakthrough performance, and he could be in the mix this May.
12. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He failed his first test in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I'm sure he will get one more shot. I'm hoping that he will run in the Arkansas Derby. In that case, we would really get a feel for how good he truly is.
13. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
This colt is going to present his case in the Blue Grass Stakes, but I just don't think that he is Triple Crown caliber. He would need to win very easily next week to be one of the main contenders at Churchill.
14. BACKTALK Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed Thomas M. Amoss
I'm concerned that his 1:09 3/5 workout the other day might have been a bit fast, but perhaps he can overcome it. If he is truly great, he will. In 1955, the great Nashua was set to run in the Arlington Classic. Five days before the race, he worked five furlongs in :56 3/5, which was faster than the world record at that time. He won the Classic by a half of a length.
15. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Stephen Got Even - Hear This, by Prospector's Music Derek Ryan
His last workout was brilliant, but let's wait and see how he does in the Wood Memorial. Obviously, his workout might have been a little fast, but everything I said about Backtalk applies here too. If anyone is going to beat Eskendereya, I think it will be this colt.
16. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
Nobody pressed him in the San Felipe, but he was still losing ground at the finish. It's going to be a lot tougher to wire the Santa Anita Derby, but if he can do it, he is a major, major contender.
17. PLEASANT PRINCE Indy King - Archduchess, by Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward
This colt is possibly under the radar a bit. Finishing a nose behind Ice Box in the Florida Derby is nothing to sneeze at. I have the feeling that this colt may be the better of the two.
18. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
This is one colt who I believe is ready to run the race of his life when given a chance to run on dirt. He raced in the shadow of Lookin at Lucky last year, and perhaps this year is when he will truly show his ability.
19. ALPHIE'S BET Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie, by Candi's Gold Alexis Barba
He get's his chance to prove himself against the Kentucky Derby favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. I'm not hooked on this colt yet, but I may be after tomorrow.
20. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
He has one final shot at proving himself to be a Triple Crown contender. I don't think that he has the stamina to go a mile and a quarter, or even a mile and three sixteenths, but if he was to win the Illinois Derby by daylight tomorrow I'll have to move him back into the top twelve.
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
CARDIFF GIANT Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
CARNIVORE One to watch in the Wood Memorial.
CODOY Heading to the Blue Grass.
CONNEMARA Disappointing in the Lane's End.
CONVEYANCE Disappointing in the Sunland Derby.
COOL BULLET Very impressive in the Hansel Stakes last week.
DAVE IN DIXIE Gets his chance in the Illinois Derby.
DEAN'S KITTEN Impressive in the Lane's End.
D’FUNNYBONE May lack the stamina.
DISCREETLY MINE Not crying for distance.
DISTORTED DAVE Might have a shot if he wins the Lexington.
DROSSELMEYER He's short on graded earnings. May run in the Lexington.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY He's entered to run in the Bay Shore Stakes, might be a Preakness contender.
GAME BALL Longshot in the Illinois Derby, but might be in the mix.
HOMEBOYKRIS I don't think he has the stamina.
JACKSON BEND With Calvin Borel riding him in the Wood Memorial, he is one to watch.
MENDIP Third in the UAE Derby, he probably won't come here.
MOST HAPPY FELLA Gets his chance in the Wood Memorial.
NORDIC TRUCE Three-for-three after Transylvania win.
NORTHERN GIANT Second in the Lane's End, graded earnings are a concern.
POSSE POWER Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
PULSION Plans to run back in the Arkansas Derby. We'll see.
RON THE GREEK Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby, graded earnings are a concern.
RULE I don't think that he can get the distance.
SETSUKO Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
SKIPSHOT Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
STAY PUT Graded earnings are a concern.
THOMAS BAINES Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
TIZ THE ONE Perhaps the Arkansas Derby?
WHO'S UP Get's his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Is he off the Triple Crown Trail?
YAWANNA TWIST Just got nominated to the TC, gets his shot in the Illinois Derby.
KEEP AN EYE ON
A LITTLE WARM Ran a tremondous race in the Lousiana Derby, but he just couldn't hold off the winner.
BULLS AND BEARS Perhaps the Preakness or Belmont.
BIM BAM Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Blue Grass.
COLIZEO I don't think he has the ability.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
DIXIE COMMANDER Out of opportunities.
EXHI Interesting win in the Rushaway, probably doesn't have the ability.
FIRST DUDE Ran fifth in the Florida Derby.
FLY DOWN Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
GAME ON DUDE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER I don't think that he can get the distance.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR I don't think that he can get the distance.
OUTLAW MAN Disappointing in the Lane's End.
PADDY O'PRADO Possible for the Blue Grass.
PEPPI KNOWS He has just about run out of opportunities.
RADIOHEAD Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
SASSY IMAGE I expect that she'll rebound in her next start.
SOARING EMPIRE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Ran third in the Sunland Derby, I don't think that he is quite ready.
THE PROGRAM Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby, but ran a sneaky good race.
TIZ CHROME Where will he run next?
WORKING FOR HOPS Nice win in the Grindstone.
-Keelerman
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