As I am typing this, it is just eight hours and seventeen minutes until Kentucky Oaks day. Of course, that is how many hours it is until midnight, and it will be at least another twenty-four hours or so before the big race is actually run. But that's good, because it gives me plenty of time to make my picks for the day.
THE KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD --- RACE 1-10
I'll begin with the first race on the Kentucky Oaks card, and that is a seven furlong $52,500 allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won $7,500 twice other then maiden, claming, or starter or which have never won three races. Yes, it is a very specific set of conditions, but it still drew a field of eight, led by the morning line favorite Ravi's Song.
Ravi's Song, a four year old daughter of Unbridled's Song, has a record of 2-2-0 from five starts. Although she has not raced since September 19th of last year, she had been racing very well up to that point. In her last race, she ran second to Best Lass in the Prairie Meadows Oaks. It wasn't exactly a grade I race, but she looks like a deserving favorite here.
Diamond Song is another well liked mare. The five year old daughter of Unbridled's Song has never run in a stakes race, but has been fairly consistent. She will be ridden by Robby Albarado, and may have a shot at pulling the minor upset.
Also well liked is the D. Wayne Lukas trained Color Me Up. The five year old daughter of Aptitude has started twenty-nine times, but has won only twice. But she has finished second seven times and third six times. She has also competed in ten graded stakes races, including four grade ones. I wouldn't ignore her either.
My picks? Well, I don't exactly have a really good opinion, as I have never heard of anyone other than Ravi's Song. But hey, it's Kentucky Derby weekend and who cares if I have no idea who's going to win! I'll put the field in order anyway!
Here I go. . .
1 Ravi's Song
2 Color Me Up
3 Dixie Pixie
4 Yonakee
5 Diamond Song
6 Fortune Play
7 Irish Wish
8 Zone
There they are, my picks for the first race at Churchill. I can't wait to see how I do!
Moving on, we come to the second race, a one mile Maiden Special Weight race for fillies and mares three and up which have never won a race.
In this race, I'm afraid that I know even less. But I'll look up some information and see what I think. . .
Okay, I did some research. The morning line favorite is the number seven horse Azurite, a three year old daughter of Rock Hard Ten. She has raced only once, finishing second in a Maiden Special Weight race at Fair Grounds. Smarty's Dream, a three year old daughter of. . . Smarty Jones? I'm not sure. But she is the 9-2 second choice, and has raced four times, all in Maiden Special Weight races. She has finished second once and third once. She could be in the mix.
Then there is Island Bound. The three year old daughter of someone is the 6-1 morning line co-fourth choice. She has started twice, and has finished second once. She will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
But don't forget English Girl! The only older horse in the field, the daughter of Broken Vow will have to carry seven pounds more than all of the other entries, but will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who is a master here at Churchill Downs.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Azurite
2 English Girl
3 Island Bound
4 Smarty's Dream
5 Shirley She Can
6 Crown the Cat
7 Rigamaro
8 Officer's Glory
9 Rendition
10 Karen Ann
11 Up and Away
Ahh. . . I'm feel so good when I'm confident about my picks. . . even when I had never heard of my picks until a few days ago. . . :)
Moving on, we come to the third race, a one mile turf Maiden Special Weight race for three year olds and upward which have never won a race.
The morning line favorite is Quick Delivery, a gelded son of Distorted Humor. He has Garrett Gomez in the saddle, which is never a bad thing, but will have to carry seven pounds more than all of the three year olds in the race.
The morning line second choice is Hybrid. The three year old son of Dixie Union has only started once, in a maiden race at Keeneland. He did not finish in the top three. But he will be ridden by Robby Albarado. However, he has to break from gate ten.
Gigantos is another colt with a shot. The four year old son of someone has Julien Leparoux in the saddle, and is 6-1 on the morning line odds. He has only raced once, finishing off the board, but has been training really well and looks ready for a big effort.
15-1 on the morning line is Kildare Cat. The unraced three year old is 15-1 on the morning line, but has Calvin Borel as a rider. He may have a big chance at winning.
So here are my picks. I've included the four Also Eligibles, just in case one or more get in.
1 Quick Delivery
2 Kildare Cat
3 Gigantos
4 Hybrid
5 Bird Empire
6 Soldero
7 My Piano Man
8 Belgrave Square
9 Bascom Hall
10 Admiral Benbow
11 Tonto Fontenot
12 Spoon River Lew
13 Sudden Interest
14 Infamous Spin
15 Win It
16 Sneaky Dreams
And that's all for the third race. Moving on, we come to the fourth race, which is a six furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race for fillies three years old which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter or which have never won two races.
The morning line favorite is Fuzzy Britches, and I agree that she is probably the best horse here. But she has to break from get eleven, and at six furlongs, it may cost her the race.
Elusive Jozi comes to mind as a potential upset horse. Although she was pretty well beaten in her last start, the grade III Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Ground back in February, she looks like she has a chance here.
Mallory Square could also spring the surprise. Last March, she ran third, beaten two and a half lengths, in the Florida Oaks behind Diva Delite. She comes into tomorrow's race off of an allowance race at Keeneland. I don't know what place she got, but I think that she hit the board.
Souma might also be in the mix. She comes into tomorrow's race off of a win in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park on March 5th. But she has to break from gate eight.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Mallory Square
2 Elusive Jozi
3 Fuzzy Britches
4 Souma
5 Oscar de La Thorn
6 Go for Jan
7 Water of Life
8 All Country
10 Funny Feeling
9 Kantstopdancin
11 Glowing Report
12 Bringingdown Babel
I think that Fuzzy Britches won't be able to overcome gate eleven, leaving Mallory Square and Elusive Jozi to battle it out. Souma will finish fourth, with Calvin Borel and Oscar de La Thorn fifth.
Now we come to the fifth race, a one mile turf Allowance Optional Claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won $8,990 three times other than maidens, claiming, starter, or state bred or which have never won four races or claiming price $80,000.
The morning line favorite of those guaranteed to get in is 7-2 Danzon, a veteran seven year old mare who has been racing since 2005. She competed in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf of 2007, finishing tenth, and I feel is without a doubt the horse to beat. However, she has drawn gate eleven and may be caught a bit wide on the turns.
In that case, Missit and Forest Trail will be right there to challenge her. The former, a five year old daughter of Orpen, has only won three times in fifteen starts, but that include a grade II win in her United States debut. That was in 2008, and I don't believe that she has won since. The latter, a five year old daughter of Forest Wildcat, has competed in four stakes races, two of the graded, but I don't believe that she has won any of them.
But don't forget the Also Eligible filly Multipass. The four year old daughter of Olmodavor is actually the morning line favorite at 3-1, but would need someone to scratch before she could get into the race. She has started thirteen times, winning four, finishing second three times, and third once. She has competed in two stakes races, both of them last year. They were Remington Park Oaks and the grade I Gazelle Stakes. She won neither of them, but did run second, beaten a length by Payton d'Oro, in the former. Interesting, Julien Leparoux, who is slated to ride Multipass, is also set to ride Forest Trail. Either one horse is going to be scratched or a replacement jockey will be found for one of them.
Calvin Borel does not have a mount in this race.
So here are my selections. (Including Multipass. . .)
1 Danzon
2 Missit
3 Multi Pass
4 Forest Trail
5 Rinterval
6 War Tigress
7 Grand Annee
8 Coulee
9 Deputy Darling
10 Kiss Mine
11 Flaming Gal
12 Susies Gal
13 Absolutely Cindy
I feel confident that Danzon is the best horse and won't get caught too wide. Missit looks ready to run a good race, and Multi Pass should also run well.
Now we come to the first stakes race on the card, the grade II La Troienne Stakes for fillies and mares three years old and up. The field is small, only six horses, but the mile and a sixteenth event has drawn reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Be Fair. The four year old daughter of Exchange Rate is coming off of a third place finish to the undefeated Zenyatta about three weeks ago. Although her record of 15-4-0-2 isn't very good, she did compete in an incredible twelve races last year, ten of them graded stakes, and seven of them in grade ones! Trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Terry Thompson, she may run better than her 20-1 morning line odds say she will. She will carry 118 pounds.
Speaking of 20-1, those are the same morning line odds that have been given to the number two horse, Morena. The six year old daughter of Privately Held has made twenty-one starts, starting with her dabut in March 2007. Racing in Peru until mid 2009, she scored ten wins, two seconds, and one third from fifteen starts in that country. However, when shipped to the United States, her luck seemed to go bad.
In her United States debut, she ran second while well beaten in the Obeah Stakes, won by Unbridled Belle. She then ran fourth in the Delaware Handicap, third in the Personal Ensign Stakes, second in the Falls Cuty Handicap, fourth in the Stage Door Betty, and seventh in the The Very One Stakes. She hasn't been nearly as good here as she was in Peru, but perhaps she will return to form tomorrow. She is trained by Michael Matz, who trained Barbaro to win the 2006 Kentucky Derby, and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano. She will carry 118 pounds.
Now we come to Zardana, who blew up any plans for a Rachel Alexandra/Zenyatta match up in the 2010 Apple Blossom Handicap by defeating the former in last month's New Orleans Ladies at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. In that race, the six year old daughter of Crimson Tide sat just behind the champion for much of the race before making her three wide bid on the second turn. After a long stretch dual, Zardana pulled away to win by three quarters of a length at 9.5-1. She will not be sent off at those odds tomorrow. She is trained by John Shirreffs and will carry 120 pounds. She will be ridden by David Flores and is the 3-1 morning line second choice.
This brings us to the champion, the great Rachel Alexandra. The four year old daughter of Medaglia d'Oro had an incredible eight-for-eight campaign last year which included a twenty and a quarter length victory in the Kentucky Oaks, a one length triumph in the Preakness, and nineteen and three quarter length win in the Mother Goose, a six length win in the Haskell Invitational, and a dramatic head victory in the Woodward Stakes early last September. In her only race since then, however, she ran second to Zardana as mentioned above. But she has been training exceptionally well at Churchill Downs lately and looks ready to return to her winning ways. She is the 3-5 morning line favorite and has regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle, but she does have to carry top weight of 124 pounds. But she looks ready. She is trained by Steve Asmussen.
Then there is the number five horse, Unrivaled Belle. The lightly raced four year old daughter of Unbridled's Song is the 4-1 morning line third choice but looks ready to tackle the champion. She began her career extremely well, finishing second in a maiden race at Keeneland last April, and four months later breaking her maiden at Monmouth Park. She then won an allowance race at Belmont Park and took the Real Prize Stakes before finishing second to Flashing in the grade I Gazelle Stakes. In her 2010 debut, she ran fourth behind Striking Dancer, Gripsholm Castle, and Floating Heart in the grade II La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita. She then shipped to Gulfstream Park and won the grade III Rampart Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths. Tomorrow, she will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. She is trained by William Mott.
Finally, we come to the six horse, Distinctive Dixie. The five year old daughter of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus has made fourteen starts, winning four, finishing second in five, and third in two. But it took her seven tried to break her maiden. She has never won a stakes race, but has twice finished second in Oaklawn Park's Bayakoa Stakes, and actually comes into the La Troienne off of one of those performances. But despite this record, she is the 8-1 morning line fourth choice. She will carry 118 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by top jockey Julien Leparoux, a regular at Churchill Downs. She is trained by W. Dollase.
So here are my picks for the race. . .
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Zardana
3 Unrivaled Belle
4 Be Fair
5 Morena
6 Distinctive Dixie
I could be wrong, but I am very confident that Rachel Alexandra will return to the form that saw her win so many stakes races last year. She may be a bit rusty, but I'm sure that she can win. Zardana is currently in form and ready for a big race, and Unrivaled Belle appears ready too. I don't like Distinctive Dixie here, but she could prove me wrong and hit the board. We'll see what happens.
Now we come to the seventh race, the five furlongs grade III Kentucky Juvenile Stakes. For two year olds that are at least twenty-four calendar months old, the morning line favorite is Nina Fever, a filly. The second choice is Twelve Pack Shelly, a filly. The third choice is Final Mesa, a filly. The remaining six entries are all colts. Very interesting. . .
Anyway, I agree that Nina Fever is the horse to beat (I am a dedicated Nina Fever fan) and would love to see her win. She comes into the race off of a win in her first race, a four and a half Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland. In that race, despite breaking slowly, she raced up to take the lead and drew off to win by eight. But can she do the same against colts? We'll see.
Lou Brissie, the co-favorite among the colts, should also run nicely. He is currently undefeated in one start. Wetzel should do well too. He is also undefeated in one start. Twelve Pack Shelly, another undefeated filly, is one of the few runners to have run on dirt.
Calvin Borel does not have a mount.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Nina Fever
2 Lou Brissie
3 Wetzel
4 Twelve Pack Shelly
5 Weekend Wildcat
6 Final Mesa
7 Boys At Tosconova
8 The Freak
9 Saturday Dance
I'm pretty confident that Nina Fever can win the race, but I know that Lou Brissie is going to challenge her. Weekend Wildcat, although he has never won a race, looks ready to keep improving and could upset the race.
Now I shall quick discuss the eighth race, the grade III Churchill Downs Turf Sprint Stakes. The five furlong race for three year olds and upward drew a solid field of eleven led by the 2-1 morning line favorite Silver Timber. The seven year old son of Prime Timber comes off of a win in the grade III Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago. But can he be upset?
It's possible. The 5-2 morning line second choice Chamberlain Bridge finished fourth in his last race, but it was in the Shakertown and he was only beaten a length and a quarter for the win. He will definitely be in the mix, as he will be carrying six pounds less than the favorite. He won this race last year.
The four year old filly Starfish Bay could also threaten the two favorites. She comes into tomorrow's race off of a win in the Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream Park, getting her five furlongs in :53 3/5.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Starfish Bay
2 Silver Timber
3 Chamberlain Bridge
4 Perfect Officer
5 Barge
6 Formidable
7 Heavenly Chorus
8 Lit'sgoodlookngray
9 Moralist
10 Central City
11 Mitigation
This brings us to the ninth race, the grade III Alysheba Stakes The mile and a sixteenth race for three year olds and upward drew a extremely talented field of older males, of which any could go on to the Eclipse award for Champion Older Male later this year.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Chocolate Candy. 5-1 on the morning line, the four year old son of Candy Ride ran fifth in last year's Kentucky Derby, but has not done much else since. He has not raced since finishing off the board in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but looks ready to make a successful return to the races. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
This brings us to the number two horse, the 7-2 morning line second choice Friesan Fire. The four year old son of A.P. Indy was last year's Kentucky Derby favorite, but ran nineteenth after considerable problems arose during the race. Prior to the Derby, he had won a maiden special weight race, the LeComte, the Risen Star, and the Lousiana Derby. He followed the Kentucky Derby with a very poor effort in the Preakness were he injured his leg. He did not return to the races for almost seven months, where he ran third in an allowance optional claiming race. He the rebounded with a win in the Louisiana Handicap where he ran fourth, beaten five and three quarter lengths. But he looks ready to run a winning performance tomorrow. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.
Then there is the number three horse Macho Again. The five year old son of Macho Uno has put in many good late runs, but his most memorable coming when he lost by a head to super filly Rachel Alexandra in the 2009 Woodward Stakes after making a tremendous run from the back of the pack. He has made twenty-two starts, winning six and finishing second in six, but his last two efforts, coming in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Clark Handicap, have been below par for him. But prior to that he was doing extremely well, winning the New Orleans Handicap, Stephen Foster Handicap, as well as running second in the Whitney Handicap and the previously Woodward. However, he finished sixth in this race last year. But anyway, he is 5-1 on the morning line, and will carry 118 pounds. He will be ridden by Robby Albarabo and is trained by D. Stewart.
Now we come to the number four horse Cool Coal Man. The son of Mineshaft is 4-1 on the morning line and has been racing fairly well, but doesn't seem to be quite as good as some of the others in this race. However, he ran second in this race last year while finishing in from of Macho Again, so he could be in the mix. Interestingly, he is entered to race here tomorrow and in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby day. I don't believe that he will be running in both, so he will probably scratch from one. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano. He is trained by Nick Zito.
This brings us to the number five horse Prom Shoes. This is the 30-1 morning line longshot. Last year, he ran eighth in this race. He probably deserves to be the longshot here, but with Calvin Borel in the saddle, you never know what might happen. This will be Prom Shoes' third straight appearance in this race. Tomorrow, he will carry 118 pounds and is trained by W. Fires.
Then there is the number six horse Bullsbay. Bullsbay had a break out year in 2009, racing eleven times while winning. . . I believe four of his starts, including last year's Alysheba Stakes and the grade I Whitney Handicap. He also ran third to Rachel Alexandra and Macho Again in the Woodward. At 6-1 on the morning line, he could easily run better than his odds say he will. The six year old son of Tiznow will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose. He is trained by Graham Motion.
This brings us to the morning line favorite at 3-1, Arson Squad. The seven year old veteran son of Brahms will be making his twenty-seventh start, and his twentieth start in a graded stakes race. He had not been competing very well, having not won a race since the grade II Meadowlands Cup Handicap in October 2008, but finally found his way back to the winners circle four weeks ago in the grade III Skip Away Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He looks ready to run a good race tomorrow. He will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by P. Lopez. He is trained by Richard Dutrow.
Now we come to the number eight horse Flying Private. One of the few colts who made it through every Triple Crown race last year, (Actually, I think he was one and Mine That Bird was the other) he has only one twice in two starts but finished fourth in the Preakness Stakes. I don't believe that he has ever won a stakes race, but you never know what might happen tomorrow. 12-1 on the morning line, he will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Enriched. The five year old gelded son of High Brite has had a solid career, turning out a record of 16-5-5-2. Although I believe that he is a stakes winner, he hasn't been facing top company. However, he has been racing in California all of his life and has never run on a regular dirt track. Because of this, it is hard to say what he might do at Churchill Downs. This horse could surprise everyone at big odds. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. He is trained by Doug O'Neill.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Chocolate Candy
2 Bullsbay
3 Arson Squad
4 Friesan Fire
5 Cool Coal Man
6 Macho Again
7 Enriched
8 Prom Shoes
9 Flying Private
As you can see, I feel that Chocolate Candy is ready to run his best race. Bullsbay should return to form off of his layoff, although I don't think he is quite ready to run his best race. As for Arson Squad, he seems to be rounding back into form and could fire a big one, but has to carry four pounds more than everyone else. As for Macho Again, I just don't like him here.
Now we come to the eleventh race, the race run right before the Kentucky Oaks. It is the grade II American Turf Stakes, a mile a sixteenth turf race for three year olds. The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Lost Aptitude. He has been racing in fairly high caliber races, but has not raced since finishing off the board in the Fountain of Youth Stakes back in February. He will have to carry the co-top weight of 119 pounds.
Setsuko is one of the many colts who could threaten for the win. The son of Pleasantly Perfect comes into the race off of dual second place finishes in the Sham Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. I'm not sure if he can win, but if the race comes off the turf, I feel he will get the job done.
Guys Reward could threaten as well. He comes into the race off of a third place finish to Nordic Truce in the grade III Transylvania Stakes.
Doubles Partner is another colt I'll mention. Although he failed to take to the synthetic track in the Lanes End Stakes last month, he does have a win over Lentenor in a nine furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park. He will also be racing without blinkers this time.
Asphalt, Gleam of Hope, Workin for Hops, Alfarabi, Strike the Tiger, and Saint Eligius are all solid contenders too. Make Music for Me was entered to run, but won't because he ended up getting into the Kentucky Derby.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Guys Reward
2 Setsuko
3 Workin for Hops
4 Doubles Partner
5 Lost Aptitude
6 Alfarabi
7 Gleam of Hope
8 Asphalt
9 Strike the Tiger
10 Saint Eligius
I feel confident that Guys Reward can pull the upset, with Setsuko rallying for second. I don't like Lost Aptitude here. I don't know why, but I just have this feeling that he is not ready to run his best race. Workin for Hops is my longshot for third.
And now, we come to the race that everybody has been waiting for. The eleventh race. The big one. For three year old fillies, it is the Kentucky Oaks!
KENTUCKY OAKS
Also known as the Run for the Lilies, the Kentucky Oaks has drawn a full field of talented fillies, led by the three time grade I winner Blind Luck. But I must begin my handicapping with the number one horse, as I feel that is the best way to do it.
So here we go. . .
The number one horse is It's Tea Time. The daughter of Dynaformer has only made three starts. In her first one, a Maiden Special Weight race at Gulfstream Park, she ran second, but broke her maiden in her next start. Stepped up to grade I company in the Ashland Stakes, she rallied from sixth at odds of 18-1 to just fall a neck short of upsetting the race. Despite the fact that the Ashland Stakes was run at Keeneland, which has always been a bit unusual, It's Tea Time should take to the dirt at Churchill Downs extremely well. She is bred to like it and despite the fact that her morning line odds are 15-1, she can pull the upset. She will be ridden by Alan Garcia and is trained by G. R. Arnold, II. She will carry 121 pounds, the same as every other runner.
The number two horse is Jody Slew. The daughter of Slew City Clew is 30-1 on the morning line, but has the potential to run much better than that. She has two stakes races this year, the Tiffany Lass and the Silverbulletday, but failed badly in the Fair Ground Oaks, running seventh behind Quiet Temper. But, about a week before that race, she had cast herself in her stall and was forced to miss training. Despite this, she was only beaten six and three quarter lengths and looks ready to rebound off of that effort. I would not even blink if this filly was to win by many lengths. She will be ridden by Miguel Mena and is trained by Bret Calhoun.
Then there is the three horse, Quiet Temper. The daughter of Quiet American has been running quite well lately, and has a career record of 8-3-4-0. She comes into the Kentucky Oaks off of a half length victory in the Fair Ground Oaks last month. At two, she won the $500,000 Boyd Gaming's Delt Princess Stakes Powered by Youbet.com. She has been training extremely well at Churchill Downs, and with Robby Albardo in the saddle, she could pull the upset with morning line odds of 10-1. She is trained by Dale Romans, a top trainer at Churchill Downs.
This brings us to the four horse, Age of Humor. The daughter of Distorted Humor is 30-1 on the morning line, but has never failed to finish in the top three in fives starts. This year, she has run second in the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct, third in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds, and second in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. In her five starts, she has raced at five different tracks, and the Kentucky Oaks will make it six starts at six different tracks. Who knows? Perhaps she will like Churchill Downs best of all! Anyway, she has a big chance at getting the win, and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. She is trained by Michael Maker.
Now we come to the 6-5 overwhelming morning line favorite Blind Luck. The daughter of Pollard's Vision has been extremely impressive through out her career, and is the deserving favorite for the Run for the Lilies. At two, she won a maiden race and a start allowance race before stepping up into grade I company, where she ran second to Mi Sueno. She then stepped up and won the grade I Oak Leaf Stakes, ran third beaten three quarters of a length in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and won the Hollywood Starlet Stakes.
At three, she appears to be even better. In the grade I Las Virgenes, she closed off of a slow pace to win by a nose, and then ran third, beaten a half length, in the Santa Anita Oaks despite running into traffic problems. She then shipped to Oaklawn Park for the Fantasy Stakes and won by two and a half lengths while leaving some pretty good horses in her dust. She has been training very well out in California and looks ready to take her spot on the list of Kentucky Oaks winners. She will be ridden by regular rider Rafael Bejarano and is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
Now we come to the six horse, the 15-1 shot Beautician. The daughter of Dehere has only won once in eight starts, but has finished second four times. It's hard to say what her best performance has been, but it's hard to overlook running second to She Be Wild, beaten three quarter of a length, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. In that race, she actually out fought Blind Luck to the wire, ending up a desperate head in front of the favorite after being passed by her in the stretch. But in her three starts since then, she has shown little to nothing. She was eased up while finishing last of seven in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes last December, then ran second beaten two and a half lengths by No Such Word, who ran third of four in the Fantasy Stakes behind Blind Luck. Then she ran last of eight in the Ashland Stakes, beaten nearly sixteen lengths. But she has been training fairly well at Churchill Downs and might just surprise a few people and run well. He will be ridden by Alex Solid and is trained by K. McPeek.
This brings us to the co-second choice Crisp. The daughter of El Corredor's biggest win came in last month's Santa Anita Oaks, where she won by a hard fought neck while just holding off the charge of Blind Luck. Prior to that, she had run fourth in the Las Virgenes, but had won the Santa Ysabel and a Maiden Special Weight race. As much as I like Blind Luck, I feel that Crisp can challenge her. However, she has not raced in eight weeks. This could be good and it could be bad. But it is the longest layoff of her short career. At 8-1, she can pull the upset, especially considering how well she has been training. She will be ridden by Joel Rosario and is trained by John Sadler.
Then there is Tidal Pool. One of the co-second choices at 8-1, the daughter of Yankee Gentleman comes into the Kentucky Oaks off of a runner up performance, beaten two and a half lengths lengths, in the Fantasy Stakes behind Blind Luck. However, she has a fearsome secret weapon that she can use to help turn the tables --- Calvin Borel, the jockey who has won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies, finished third in between the two wins, and won last year's Kentucky Oaks. If any jockey can pull the upset on sheer riding ability and knowing the track, it is Calvin. Getting back to the filly, Tidal Pool has never won a stakes race, but has hit the board in them a couple of times. Prior to the Fantasy, she won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park by eight lengths. She is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, and who knows? Perhaps Lukas can sweep the Oaks with Tidal Pool and the Derby with Dublin! Wouldn't that be cool!
Anyway, this brings us to the nine horse, Bella Diamante. The daughter of Lost Soldier's biggest performance came in last year's Delta Princess, where she just held off Joanie's Catch for the second spot, seven and three quarter lengths behind victorious Quiet Temper. She has also finished second in two other stakes races, and has been training rather well at Churchill Downs. Despite the fact that she is 30-1 on the morning line, she could be in contention for at least third. She will be ridden by Mike Smith and is trained by A. Milligan.
Now we come to the ten horse, the 30-1 shot Champagne d'Oro. The daughter of Medaglia d'Oro seems to be improving rapidly this year, after a less than stellar two year old campaign that saw her win no races and run last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. This year, she has made two starts, breaking her maiden in a Maiden Special Weight race and running second to Quiet Temper, beaten a half length, in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Once again, this is a filly who could run way better than her odds say she will and this filly could get a piece of the pie. She will be ridden by Martin Garcia and is trained by E. Guillot.
Coming down to the final few fillies, we come to the number eleven horse Evening Jewel. The daughter of Northern Afleet has really done quite well this year, finishing second, beaten a nose, in the Las Virgenes behind Blind Luck and winning the Ashland Stakes by a neck over It's Tea Time. This filly seems to be very adaptable, and I would not be surprised at all if she was to win. However, gate eleven isn't the greatest post position, as she will have to fight to not get caught wide on the turns, but she looks ready for an excellent performance. She could very well improve on dirt, and at 10-1 she could pull a surprising upset. She will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and is trained by J Cassidy.
Then there is the number twelve horse, the 15-1 shot Ailalea. The daughter of Pulpit has been racing rather poorly lately, but did win the grade III Tempted Stakes last November. In her last start, the Fair Ground Oaks, she ran sixth as the 4-1 second choice. But in that race, she had a very wide trip and was only beaten five and a quarter lengths for the win. With John Velasquez in the saddle, and with Todd Pletcher as the trainer, I can see this filly running huge.
This brings us to the number thirteen horse Amen Hallelujah. The daughter of Montbrook has been quite impressively as of late, winning the Santa Ynez and Davona Dale Stakes before running second, beaten two and three quarter lengths, by Devil May Care, the filly who is taking on the colts in the Kentucky Derby. She has shown great talent, but doesn't seem to be quite as good as Blind Luck, considering that Blind Luck absolutely destroyed her in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes. But perhaps Amen Hallelujah just doesn't care for synthetic tracks. Anyway, she is 8-1 on the morning line and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. She is trained by Richard Dutrow.
Finally, we come to the fourteenth and final entry Joanie's Catch. The daughter of First Tour is 30-1 on the morning line, but she is my longshot horse. Despite the fact that she has only won two races from eighteen starts, she has finished in the top three sixteen times. In her last ten starts, she has never failed to finish in the top three. Why can't she do it again here? She has been facing some very good company, and who knows what might happen at a mile and an eighth in a fourteen horse field. The filly can pull the upset, or at the very least hit the board. She will be ridden by P. Lopez and is trained by B. Rose.
So here are my selections for the Kentucky Oaks. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 It's Tea Time
4 Evening Jewel
5 Jody Slew
6 Tidal Pool
7 Quiet Temper
8 Joanie's Catch
9 Amen Hallelujah
10 Ailalea
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Age of Humor
13 Beautician
14 Bella Diamante
There is no way I'm going to pick against Blind Luck. She is the deserving favorite and barring anything unusual, should win by daylight. Crisp has been racing extremely well, and I think that she will take to the dirt just fine. I feel that It's Tea Time is going to be flying late, but not quite as strongly as Blind Luck. Evening Jewel has a big chance, as does Tidal Pool. When I originally handicapped this race, I had Tidal Pool to run second, but changed my mind and dropped her down to sixth. I hope I did the right thing. I expect Jody Slew to rebound well, but I just don't think that Amen Hallelujah is going to be able to hand on, breaking from gate thirteen and trying to go to the front. We'll see what happens. I could be wrong, but that's what I think.
Those are my final thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks. I can't wait!
AFTER THE KENTUCKY OAKS --- RACE TWELVE
Now, despite the fact that the Kentucky Oaks is the big race of the day, it is not the final race of the day. After the Kentucky Oaks is a six furlong Maiden Special Weight race for fillies and mares three year olds and upward which have never won a race.
The morning line favorite is Ready to Sing, a three year old filly who will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. But in my opinion, the unraced three year old Awesome Temper is the one to beat. 8-1 on the morning line, she has been training well and looks ready to run.
Go Pro also looks ready to run, as does Wyn Jym.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Awesome Temper
2 Bialy
3 Ready to Sing
4 Go Pro
5 Ash Zee
6 Wyn Jym
7 Lil' Moor Dixie
8 Hottie Dancer
9 Derby Lane's Song
10 Slews Sassy
11 Maria Darlin
And that completes my handicapping of the Kentucky Oaks and undercard. May the best horses win! Tomorrow, I will post my picks for the Kentucky Derby. But for now, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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