TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Well, this is it. The big one. Everything on this blog has been leading up to this race. (As well as the Preakness and Belmont.)

It is the Kentucky Derby. A mile and a quarter. Two million dollars. Over one million dollars to the winner. And a chance at Triple Crown glory.

As usual, the race drew a tough field of twenty relatively unproven three year old colts. Add this to the fact that there is a 70% chance of rain in Louisville on Derby Day and you have yourself an impossible to handicap mess.

But just the same, I'm going to try and pick the winner.

Yes, it's going to be hard, and yes the odds of doing so are small, but hey, it's the Derby and everybody has a pick.

I'll begin by going through every runner in the field, starting with the number one horse and ending with the number twenty horse. Then I'll discuss my picks. But unlike all of my other race previews, where I simply discussed my thoughts of each horse and listed some facts, I'm not going to do that. Well, I'm going to do it, but in a slightly different format.

Let's begin.

1. Lookin at Lucky
Birthdate - May 27th
Sire - Smart Strike (By Mr. Prospector)
Dam - Private Feeling (By Belong to Me)
Owner - Karl Watson Michael E Pegram and Paul Weitman
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Garrett Gomez
Last Race --- Santa Anita Derby, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has been very consistent, always finishing in the top three. He has a solid two year old foundation. He has won three grade one races and nearly won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He has shown that he can overcome traffic in more than one race, and re-rally after getting blocked. Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Derbies and finished second in two more. He will not wear blinkers this time. He has been training extremely well at Churchill Downs.
Cons --- He always manages to find trouble, he eases himself up when he takes the lead, and Smart Strike has never sired a Derby winner. He is also breaking from the dreaded gate one. He seems to run his best races on the outside.
Pedigree --- His pedigree isn't exactly a classic Derby winning pedigree, but it does say that a mile and a quarter is within his reach.

2. Ice Box
Birthdate - March 29th
Sire - Pulpit (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Spice Island (Tabasco Cat)
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Jose Lezcano
Last Race --- Ice Box, finished 1st
Pros --- He is one of the few deep closers in the Kentucky Derby, which could set up for him well if the pace is fast enough. Nick Zito has won two Kentucky Derbies. Ice Box has been improving all year and looks ready for a career best effort.
Cons --- Gate two isn't the greatest place to start, but not too bad considering his style. It is hard to close at Churchill Downs when the track is wet, and considering the amount of rain scheduled for tomorrow, he may not be able to get there in time.
Pedigree --- Pulpit seems to sire mile and an eighth/one mile horses, but he does have Tabasco Cat as a broodmare sire. It does say that a mile and a quarter is within his reach, but that he may get better with age.

3. Noble's Promise
Birthdate - April 13th
Sire - Cuvee (Carson City)
Dam - The Devil's Trick (Clever Trick)
Owner - Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC
Trainer - Kenneth McPeek
Jockey - W. Martinez
Last Race --- Arkansas Derby, finished 5th
Pros --- He has a solid two year old foundation, running just behind Lookin at Lucky three times, and although he is winless in two starts this year, he was only beaten a nose in one while having plenty of excuses in the other. He has been training well at Churchill Downs, and gets W. Martinez back.
Cons --- He came out of the Arkansas Derby with cuts and a lung infection, but he seems to have recovered. Gate three does not really suit his style.
Pedigree --- It does not say a mile and a quarter anywhere. His sire was a miler at best.

4. Super Saver
Birthdate - March 18th
Sire - Maria's Mon (By Wavering Monarch)
Dam - Supercharger (By A.P. Indy)
Owner - WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Calvin Borel
Last Race --- Arkansas Derby, finished 2nd
Pros --- He has Calvin Borel as a jockey, and he has a excellent win over this track, he was only beaten a neck in his last race, and his speed figures have been improving. His sire sired the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. He has had experience with off tracks.
Cons --- He seems to have perhaps just a little bit of stamina issues, and he likes to race on the lead. But hopefully, with Calvin Borel in the saddle, he will learn to rate just off the lead.
Pedigree --- Pretty good. It looks like it will take him a mile and a quarter.

5. Line of David
Birthdate - March 2nd
Sire - Lion Heart (By Tale of the Cat)
Dam - Emma's Dilemma (By Capote)
Owner - Dawn and Ike Thrash
Trainer - John Sadler
Jockey - Rafael Bejarano
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- He is without a doubt one of the fastest horses in the race, and has a lot of courage. He is undefeated while wearing blinkers and just keeps improving.
Cons --- He doesn't seem to be a mile and a quarter horse, and he hates mud.
Pedigree --- I'm afraid that it does not say anything about a mile and a quarter. He doesn't seem to like mud at all, but his sire Lion Heart ran second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby on a very sloppy track.

6. Stately Victor
Birthdate - May 1st
Sire - Ghostzapper (By Awesome Again)
Dam - Collect the Cash (By Dynaformer)
Owner - F Thomas Conway and Jack Conway
Trainer - Michael Maker
Jockey - Alan Garcia
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 1st
Pros --- Excellent pedigree, has been training nicely, has a grade I win under his belt, and has been improving. Has been running against some very good company. He finished second behind Winslow Homer in his maiden race on an off track. Has been training very well and looks really good.
Cons --- Has yet to run really well on dirt and has the Blue Grass winner curse on him.
Pedigree --- His pedigree screams a mile and a quarter and even a mile and a half. If he takes to the dirt track, he is extremely dangerous.

7. American Lion
Birthdate - February 10th
Sire - Tiznow (By Cee's Tizzy)
Dam - Storm Tide (By Storm Cat)
Owner - WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer - Eoin Harty
Jockey - David Flores
Last Race - Illinois Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- Solid pedigree, visually impressive win in the Illinois Derby, and could not be training and looking any better. He has the perfect post position for his style, and should get a brilliant trip.
Cons --- Seems to have a bit of distance limitations, the final time in the Illinois Derby was 1:51 1/5, and doesn't seem to be quite as good as some of the others.
Pedigree --- His pedigree screams a mile and a quarter, but it may not be within his grasp. He looks like a mile/mile and an eighth horse, but there is no denying that he is going to get a good trip.

8. Dean's Kitten
Birthdate - February 10th
Sire - Kitten's Joy (By El Prado)
Dam - Summer Theater (By Ide)
Owner - Kenneth L and Sarah K Ramsey
Trainer - Michael Maker
Jockey - Robby Albarado
Last Race - Lane's End Stakes, finished 1st
Pros - Has been improving for some time and has been training rather well. Visually impressive in the Lane's End Stakes. Comes into the Derby off of a five week layoff.
Cons - In his only start on dirt, he finished last of five, beaten thirty-three and three quarter lengths while earnings a Beyer speed figure of 28. He is bred to be a turf/synthetic horse and his speed figures in general haven’t been very high.
Pedigree --- Despite the fact that his pedigree says turf, it should be able to take him a mile and a quarter. His sire, Kitten's Joy, could go a mile and a half on the turf.

9. Make Music for Me
Birthdate - March 4th
Sire - Bernstein (Storm Cat)
Dam - Miss Cheers (Carson City)
Owner - Ellen and Peter O Johnson
Trainer - Alexis Barba
Jockey - Joel Rosario
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 6th
Pros - Solid two year old foundation, decent pedigree, and has been training nicely.
Cons - Finished sixth in his last race, speed figures aren't very high, and has never started on dirt. His best race came earlier this year on turf. He doesn't seem to be quite as good as some of the other horses in this race.
Pedigree --- Not terrible, but a bit questionable for a mile and a quarter. It should get him there.

10. Paddy O'Prado
Birthdate - February 15th
Sire - El Prado (By Sadler Wells)
Dam - Fun House (Prized)
Owner - Donegal Racing
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Kent Desormeaux
Last Race - Blue Gras Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros - Ran a 1:45 2/5 mile and an eighth on turf earlier this year, and has an excellent pedigree. Trainer Dale Romans is an expert at Churchill Downs and Kent Desormeaux has won three Derbies already.
Cons - In his only start on dirt, on a sloppy track sealed track at Churchill Downs, he ran seventh of eleven, beaten eleven and a half lengths by Thiskyhasnolimit. Earned a 46 Beyer speed figure for that effort. In the Blue Grass, he had nothing left to hold of Stately Victor. It appeared as though he was tiring at the finish.
Pedigree --- With a pedigree like his, he should be versatile. His sire, El Prado, has sired grade I winners on dirt, turf, and synthetic tracks. His broodmare sire, Prized, won the 1989 Breeders' Cup Turf, but also defeated 1989 Horse of the Year Sunday Silence in the grade I Swaps Stakes on dirt. Paddy O'Prado should be able to get the distance.

11. Devil May Care
Birthdate - May 7th
Sire - Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy)
Dam - Kelli's Ransom (Red Ransom)
Owner - Glencrest Farm LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - John Velazquez
Last Race - Bonnie Miss Stakes, finished 1st
Pros - She's run a mile and an eighth faster than Ice Box did in the Florida Derby while racing on the same track and on the same day as he. She has the co-highest Beyer speed figure of any horse in the race, and will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
Cons - She is a filly, and only three fillies have won the Kentucky Derby, she has been drifting out in her stretch runs, and has never faced colts. She is also fairly inconsistent.
Pedigree --- Questionable at a mile and a quarter. Her sire, Malibu Moon, has yet to sire a good distance horse, but at least her grandsire A.P. Indy has.

12. Conveyance
Birthdate - February 28th
Sire - Indian Charlie (In Excess)
Dam - Emptythehill (By Holy Bull)
Owner - Zabeel Racing International
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Martin Garcia
Last Race - Sunland Derby, finished 2nd
Pros - He is probably the fastest horse in the race, and he has defeated some of the top contenders here. He has been extremely consistent, and may just have enough stamina to wire the race. He has been training nicely, and is trained by Bob Baffert. Comes into the Derby off of a five week layoff.
Cons - Probably doesn't have the stamina to do it, if he gets into a speed dual with Line of David or Sidney's Candy it could be disastrous, his pedigree doesn't say a mile and a quarter, and he had nothing left in the Sunland Derby despite moderate fractions.
Pedigree --- Questionable at a mile and a quarter. His sire, Indian Charlie, was more of a mile and an eighth horse and his best foals have been about the same. His broodmare sire, Holy Bull, could go a mile and a quarter but it wasn't his best distance. But he did go on to sire 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, so I would say that Conveyance's pedigree has just enough stamina to get him a mile and a quarter. But no further.

13. Jackson Bend
Birthdate - February 11th
Sire - Hear No Evil
Dam - Sexy Stockings
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta and Fred J. Brei
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Mike Smith
Last Race - Wood Memorial, finished 2nd
Pros - Has earned a Beyer speed figure of 100, he has been unbelievably consistent, he has never run worse than second, and he never gives up. His trainer Nick Zito has won two Kentucky Derbies.
Cons - Has severe stamina questions.
Pedigree --- Questionable at a mile and a quarter. His sire, Hear No Evil, could barely go a mile and a sixteenth. But his broodmare sire, Tabasco Cat, was a Preakness/Belmont winner. He might go ten furlongs, and he might not.

14. Mission Impazible
Birthdate - March 2nd
Sire - Unbridled's Song (By Unbridled)
Dam - La Pez (By Hold Your Peace)
Owner - Twin Creeks Racing Stable LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Rajiv Maragh
Last Race - Louisiana Derby, finished 1st
Pros - Has been improving in every race, seems to have excellent stamina, has been training extremely well in the slop at Churchill Downs, and comes into the Derby off of a five week layoff.
Cons - His sire, Unbridled's Song, has yet to sire a good distance horse, beat a supposedly weak field in the Lousiana Derby, and his speed figures haven't been very high.
Pedigree --- Like a said above, his sire Unbridled's Song hasn't sire a distance horse yet. His pedigree is perhaps a little questionable at a mile and a quarter, but it should get him there.

15. Discreetly Mine
Birthdate - March 30th
Sire - Mineshaft (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Pretty Discreet (By Private Account)
Owner - E Paul Robsham Stable LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Javier Castellano
Last Race - Louisiana Derby, finished 4th
Pros - Okay pedigree, has been facing some fairly decent horses, raced five times as a two year old.
Cons - Doesn't seem to have much stamina, simply could not hang on in the Louisiana Derby despite setting slow fractions, has to break from gate fifteen, and his speed figures haven't been very high.
Pedigree --- Fairly good, but his sire Mineshaft has yet to get a grade I winner or a horse who could go a mile and a quarter. Otherwise okay.

16. Awesome Act
Birthdate - April 17th
Sire - Awesome Again (By Deputy Minister)
Dam - Houdini's Honey (By Mr. Prospector)
Owner - Vinery Stable LLC and Mrs. Susan Roy
Trainer - Jeremy Noseda
Jockey - Julien Leparoux
Last Race - Wood Memorial, finished 3rd
Pros - Very impressive in the Gotham Stakes, excellent pedigree, good turn of foot, and he had plenty of excuses in the Wood Memorial.
Cons - Was nowhere near top class in Europe as a juvenile, beat no one of Triple Crown ability in the Gotham, and needs a perfect trip to throw in his run. Post sixteen isn't great.
Pedigree --- Excellent. It will get him the Derby distance.

17. Dublin
Birthdate - April 4th
Sire - Afleet Alex (By Northern Afleet)
Dam - Classy Mirage (By Storm Bird)
Owner - Robert C. Baker and William L. Mack
Trainer - D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey - Terry Thompson
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - Very consistent, trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four Derbies, he always puts in a good run, he can sustain it a long way, and he has an excellent two year old foundation.
Cons - Hasn't won a race since last September, his run always seems to fall a bit short, he didn't close very fast in the Arkansas Derby. Post seventeen has never had a Derby winner.
Pedigree --- Excellent, classic pedigree. Of all the pedigrees of all the Derby contenders, I like this one the best. It will get him a mile and a quarter, and probably beyond.

18. Backtalk
Birthdate - January 27th
Sire - Smarty Jones (By Elusive Quality)
Dam - Apasionata Sonata (Affirmed)
Owner - Gold Mark Farm LLC
Trainer - Thomas Amoss
Jockey - Miguel Mena
Last Race - Illinois Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - Solid two year old foundation, has won on a sloppy, sealed track, had his excuses for running third in the Illinois Derby.
Cons - Poor speed figures, was well beaten in the Illinois Derby, hasn't faced very tough competition, and when he does, he is always well beaten. Post eighteen is not good.
Pedigree --- Not bad at all, perhaps a little short on stamina, but not too much. Sire Smarty Jones won the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness while running second in the Belmont, while broodmare sire Affirmed was the last horse to sweep the Triple Crown.

19. Homeboykris
Birthdate - February 13th
Sire - Roman Ruler (By Fusaichi Pegasus)
Dam - One Last Salute (Salutely)
Owner - Lazzinnaro, Bulger, Mandato, Torre, Bello, Teel, Borislow and Sallusto
Trainer - Richard Dutrow
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez
Last Race - Allowance race at Gulfstream Park, finished 2nd
Pros - Solid two year old foundation, won the Grade I Champagne Stakes defeating Discreetly Mine, Super Saver, and Dublin. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who won the 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Big Brown.
Cons - Has done nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes, is unproven at two turns, may not care for off tracks, poor speed figures. Post nineteen has never had a Derby winner.
Pedigree --- May or may not get him a mile and a quarter. His sire, Roman Ruler, could go no further than nine furlongs. But his grandsire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the 2000 Kentucky Derby.

20. Sidney's Candy
Birthdate - January 27th
Sire - Candy Ride (By Ride the Rails)
Dam - Fair Exchange (By Storm Cat)
Owner - Sid and Jenny Craig Trust
Trainer - John Sadler
Jockey - Joseph Talamo
Last Race - Santa Anita Derby, finished 1st
Pros - He is undefeated this year, has earned a Beyer of 100, he has excellent speed, he comes home fast, and he defeated Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.
Cons - He has never raced outside of California, he has never raced on a dirt track, he stumbles out of the gate rather frequently, he has to break from gate twenty, and he has yet to be really pushed when on the lead.
Pedigree --- Excellent. It should carry him a mile and a quarter. His sire, Candy Ride, broke the track record at Del Mar for a mile and a quarter in the grade I Pacific Classic, getting the distance in 1:59 flat, and ran a 1:31 flat mile in Argentina. His broodmare sire is Storm Cat, who foals have always been able to get a mile and a quarter.

And so that completes my analysis of their basic statistics. Now I've just got to take this information and turn it into some sort of format that can predict the winner. Actually, I might do better if I just draw a name out of a hat. . .

Come to think of it, I'll do that. As well as listing my own personal picks, I'll draw the order of finish out of a hat.

Here are the random picks. . .

1 Line of David
2 American Lion
3 Stately Victor
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Paddy O'Prado
6 Mission Impazible
7 Dublin
8 Homeboykris
9 Devil May Care
10 Backtalk
11 Noble's Promise
12 Ice Box
13 Super Saver
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Dean's Kitten
16 Jackson Bend
17 Awesome Act
18 Make Music for Me
19 Conveyance
20 Lookin at Lucky

Wow. . . obviously the hat has something against Bob Baffert's horses. :-) And four of the top five finishers are front runners. Apparently the hat feels there is a track bias or something. . .

Now the real analyzing begins.

I'm going to list several different lists, as well as several unusual patterns, before actually listing my picks.

To begin, I'm going to look at Beyer speed figures. If every run ran the same Beyer speed figure that they did in their last race, here is what the order of finish would look like:

1 Devil May Care (DH with Sidney's Candy)
2 Sidney's Candy (DH)
3 Ice Box
4 Super Saver (DH with Line of David and American Lion)
5 Line of David (DH)
6 American Lion (DH)
7 Dublin
8 Conveyance
9 Stately Victor (DH with Mission Impazoble)
10 Mission Impazible (DH)
11 Dean's Kitten (DH with Jackson Bend and Awesome Act)
12 Jackson Bend (DH)
13 Awesome Act (DH)
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Noble's Promise
16 Lookin at Lucky
17 Homeboykris
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Make Music for Me
20 Backtalk

I don't think there are going to be that many dead heats. . .

But let's take a closer look at the speed figures. Suppose we take Lookin at Lucky's speed figures for every race and average them out. Then we do this for every other horse. The horses with the highest average number would win. Let's see what happens when we do that.

1 Conveyance
2 Awesome Act
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Super Saver
5 American Lion
6 Lookin at Lucky
7 Noble's Promise
8 Discreetly Mine
9 Homboykris
10 Jackson Bend
11 Mission Impazible
12 Dublin
13 Backtalk
14 Devil May Care
15 Line of David
16 Make Music for Me
17 Stately Victor
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Ice Box

Once again, this isn't really an accurate measurement of the horses’ abilities. I highly doubt that Ice Box is going to finish last.

Now, I'm almost ready to make my picks. But first, I'm going to rattle off a couple of unusual factors which always seem to pop up in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe they will hold true for this year's edition too.


1. Over the past nine years, four Derby winners have come from their sire's first crop.
If this is to hold true again, Stately Victor, Dean's Kitten, Jackson Bend, Dublin, or Homeboykris would win.

2. Over the past ten years, seven trainers have won the Kentucky Derby on their first attempt.

If this is to hold true again, then Line of David, Stately Victor, Dean's Kitten, Make Music for Me, or Sidney's Candy would win.

And that is all. It is now time for my picks.
Here they are. . .

OFFICIAL PICKS

1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Super Saver
4 Conveyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 American Lion
7 Sidney's Candy
8 Ice Box
9 Awesome Act
10 Stately Victor
11 Jackson Bend
12 Homeboykris
13 Devil May Care
14 Make Music for Me
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Noble's Promise
18 Line of David
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Discreetly Mine

Okay. . . it is unusual. But here are my thoughts. . .

Dublin just keeps on hitting the board. Time after time after time he finishes just behind the winners. In the Arkansas Derby, he came within a half length of winning. In the Rebel, he was beaten three lengths by Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise after a horrible trip. In the Southwest Stakes, despite a bad break, he rallied to finish second, three quarters of a length behind Conveyance. I am positive that he can handle the mile and a quarter, the slop, and everything. The long stretch run should also help him. Gate seventeen isn't great, but it's not as bad as twenty.

Then there is Lookin at Lucky. He has never failed to hit the board and I feel that he will pull it off again today. Yes, he has to break from gate one, and he could very well run into traffic, but I'm going to assume that he gets a clean trip.

With Super Saver, I'm not sure. He was beaten a neck in the Arkansas Derby, and is proven over a sloppy sealed track, but he may not be able to get the distance. But with Calvin Borel as a rider, he should be able to hit the board.

As for Conveyance, I think that he can go wire-to-wire. He is to some extent overlooked, and I think that he has the perfect post position to do it. He has so much early speed that he guarantees himself a good trip.

Mission Impazible should love the slop. He has been training beautifully at Churchill Downs and should be able to run a great race and get a good trip.

American Lion should get a perfect trip from gate seven, and Ice Box should come rallying late. Awesome Act is capable of winning, but I just don't know if he is going to get the right trip.

Jackson Bend never gives up, Homeboykris has hidden talent, Devil May Care may not be good enough, Sidney's Candy has to overcome gat twenty, Stately Victor may not care for dirt, Make Music for Me should pass tiring rivals, Backtalk may not be good enough, Paddy O'Prado doesn't have the stamina, Noble's Promise will get a poor trip, Line of David will hate the track, Dean's Kitten may not be good enough, and Discreetly Mine may not be good enough.

Now with that said, I'm going to put up one more list. The following is my "gut feeling" list, where I throw out what my brain tells me and go with what my heart tells me to do.

GUT FEELING PICKS

1 Dublin
2 Super Saver
3 Mission Impazible
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 American Lion
6 Conveyance
7 Ice Box
8 Jackson Bend
9 Homeboykris
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dean's Kitten
12 Devil May Care
13 Awesome Act
14 Sidney's Candy
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Stately Victor
18 Noble's Promise
19 Line of David
20 Discreetly Mine

And now I have just one last thing to say. Here is the imaginary race call, if my official picks were to come home in that order:

"And they’re off, in the Kentucky Derby! Conveyance got off to a sharp start and from the far outside here comes Sidney's Candy. Paddy O'Prado racing into contention while Line of David comes up on the rail to grab second. Lookin at Lucky is down along the rail, the filly Devil May Care is in between horses in sixth. American Lion is right in behind the leaders and Jackson Bend is on the far outside. By us for the first time and it's Conveyance with a half length lead over Line of David. American Lion is right there on the outside with Sidney's Candy in the four path racing fourth. American Lion is on the rail about three lengths off the lead with Jackson Bend on the outside. In to the first turn they go! The filly Devil May Care is right behind Jackson Bend in seventh, with Paddy O'Prado back in eighth. Noble's Promise is in among horses racing in ninth. Lookin at Lucky is tenth. Mission Impazible is on the outside in eleventh. Discreetly Mine is twelve. Awesome Act is thirteenth. Dean's Kitten in fourteenth. Lookin at Lucky, is fifteen early on! Super Saver is sixteenth! And then it's Dublin racing eighteenth, Homeboykris in nineteenth, and Ice Box in last of twenty! The opening half mile went in a blazing forty-six seconds flat!"

"They're on to the backstretch now and it's still Conveyance with a narrow lead. Line of David is being pushed to continue. American Lion is right behind them on the rail with Sidney's Candy fighting Joe Talamo! Sidney's Candy is making an early move! Jackson Bend is on the outside! Mission Impazible is inching closer, and there goes Lookin at Lucky! Lookin at Lucky with a bold move along the rail as they approach the final turn! Lookin at Lucky switches to the outside but he's going to have to go five or six wide! Devil May Care is rallying in between horses! Joe Talamo is asking Sidney's Candy for more but Sidney's Candy isn't picking it up! On the outside Dublin is beginning a rally, but he's going to have to swing seven or eight wide! Lookin at Lucky is continuing his bold move and Lookin at Lucky has taken the lead! Conveyance trying to stay with him! Mission Impazible is following Lookin at Lucky and American Lion is on the rail looking for racing room! And here comes Super Saver! Calvin Borel and Super Saver coming on the rail as the field turns for home! Lookin at Lucky still holds the lead but he isn't drawing away! Mission Impazible is right behind him battling with Conveyance! And Dublin is grinding past horses on the outside! Lookin at Lucky leads to the eighth pole! Super Saver is creeping up on the inside! Calvin Borel is imploring him to go on! But here comes Dublin! Down to the final sixteenth! Lookin at Lucky has unwavering courage! Super Saver is a stubborn foe! And Dublin is cutting them both down with every stride! Here's the wire! . . . Dublin gets up to win it by a neck! Welcome back Wayne Lukas!"

And that is everything I have to say. I have made my picks, and now it's time to go enjoy the races. Remember, starting at about a half hour before the Kentucky Derby is run, I will be live on my blog posting as events occur. I will have the top three finishers up as soon as the race is over. (Unless Dublin wins, and then it might take me a minute to calm down!)

So that's it. In less than five hours the winner of the 136th Kentucky Derby winner will be history. And one horse will have a chance at Triple Crown glory. Enjoy the Kentucky Derby everyone!

-Keelerman