(Sorry I didn't get this interview posted before the Kentucky Oaks, I got delayed. But better late than never!)
"Hey, can you smell the roses?"
"Vaguely . . . but the smell of lilies is stronger."
Of course, this is just a generic conversation, but it is true. The Run for the Lilies, also known as the Kentucky Oaks, is being run tomorrow. I will be discussing it very thoroughly later today, but for now, I thought I would get some final opinions from Dan J, Rosie Sedgwick, and our new follower Ellen F on the Kentucky Oaks, the Kentucky Derby, the La Troienne, the American Turf Stakes, and a few other little things. So let's get started!
(The following are my questions, followed by Dan, Rosie, and Ellen’s answers.)
Q: Welcome back Dan, Rosie, and Ellen! I've got a lot of questions for you to answer, but to start, how do you feel overall about the Kentucky Derby and Oaks?
DJ: I'm excited. These should be an excellent set of races.
RS: There are so many truly wonderful horses that are currently scheduled to run; such as Stately Victor, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, and Mission Impazible---and that's to name only a few! As for the Kentucky Oaks, my personal favorite is Amen Hallelujah, followed closely by Blind Luck and Champagne d'Oro. These are some beautiful fillies!
EF: I'm intensely interested. For the Oaks, I suppose I'll go along with the favorite, Blind Luck. To tell you the truth, I haven't been following the Oaks that thoroughly, I'm more of a Derby fan myself. . . as for the Derby, I can't wait to see how the post positions are going to affect the field! And I hope Todd Pletcher finally gets a Derby winner.
Q: Now let's take a look at the field for the Oaks. A full field of fourteen has been entered, and Blind Luck is the very heavy favorite. Do you think that she will be upset?
DJ: No, I think she can do it. The Oaks seems to favor favorites. With Devil May Care headed for the Derby, Blind Luck's job just got that much easier.
RS: As Amen Hallelujah is my own favorite, I think she might be. Blind Luck is totally fabulous, but Amen Hallelujah may be able to pull off an upset. Blind Luck, however (from Post 5) has a better post position, so it's going to be interesting to see how this race comes out.
EF: It's highly possible, I mean, just because she's the favorite doesn't mean she's a sure thing. But I feel pretty confident in her.
Q: Who do you think has the best chance at upsetting her?
DJ: Hmmm...I don't think she will be. But if I must pick, let's go with Calvin Borel and take Tidal Pool.
RS: Amen Hallelujah! :)
EF: Well, Champagne d'Oro has an incredible sister out there. . . and Tidal Pool definitely deserves recognition. . .
Q: Do you think that we will see another Oaks/Derby jockey double, where the same jockey wins both races?
DJ: Well, that would be interesting (especially if it were Tidal Pool/Super Saver!) but I doubt it, it seems unlikely.
RS: Possibly, due to the fact that both Tidal Pool (in the Kentucky Oaks) and Super Saver (in the Kentucky Derby) are ridden by Calvin Borel, my thoughts are that there is a chance that this will happen.
EF: Well, it's a possibility. Anything can happen in the Two Kentuckies (as has been proven over and over again), so I'm not going to give a steadfast opinion either way. It might happen, but then again it might not. Does that make me wishy-washy? ;- )
Q: On the far outside is the 30-1 shot Joanie's Catch. She isn't very well liked, but somehow manages to keep hitting the board against pretty good competition. What do you think of her?
DJ: I like horses who just keep getting better, slowly, behind the radar, and then break out. Perhaps the Oaks will be her day.
RS: I think that she is a fairly strong horse, and therefore she might just have a shot at doing well.
EF: Consistency is good, but I like to see horses win consistently. 30-1 odds don't exactly boost my confidence in her. . . her record is admirable, and if she gets a miracle trip I think she could make it.
Q: In gate eight is the 8-1 co-second choice Tidal Pool. She finished second to Blind Luck in the Fantasy Stakes. She also has Calvin Borel in the saddle. What do you think of her chances?
DJ: I like her, but not as much as Blind Luck.
RS: Tidal Pool is definitely going to be finishing higher up in the Oaks race. It's interesting the way she finished second to Blind Luck in that race, and it might be the way things will end up in the Oaks. But longshots can sometimes pull off miracles . . . it's hard to say.
EF: Watch out, Oaks ladies, you've got a threat there!
Q: Would any of you care to reveal your Oaks trifectas?
DJ: Blind Luck, Tidal Pool, and Amen Hallelujah.
RS: Yes; I have thought quite a bit about this race and I would put my trifecta in this order: 1; Amen Hallelujah; 2; Blind Luck; 3; Tidal Pool.
EF: 1; Blind Luck, 2; Tidal Pool, 3; Champagne d'Oro (in passing, that's a very pretty name. . . 'Champagne of Gold'.)
Q: Now let's take a look at the Kentucky Derby. As usual, a huge field of twenty horses have entered. Lookin at Lucky, the 3-1 morning line favorite, has drawn the rail. Sidney's Candy, the 5-1 second choice, drew gate twenty. What do you think of that?
DJ: I think it's pretty wild. Lookin at Lucky is going to have to fight hard for a position and Sidney's Candy will probably be quite wide going into that first turn. But it may not matter.
RS: It's odd that both favorites of the Derby ended up with outside post positions. Lookin at Lucky is most certainly a powerful colt, as is Sidney's Candy. It's probable that they are going to do well in the race, but perhaps, due to their positions, something might happen . . . but look at Big Brown, the winner of the Kentucky Derby of 2008. He broke from Post 20, which is considered not so good, but think of what he came away with! The credentials of being the winner of one of the most prestigious races in the history of horse racing!
EF: I'm a bit worried about that. The #1 slot isn't the best place to be, and neither is #20. Lookin at Lucky can probably pull something off, but I don't have my sights set too high for Sidney's Candy. I'm not very impressed with him, though he did wire the Santa Anita.
Q: What do you think of Dublin drawing gate seventeen? Do you think it hurts his chances?
DJ: I don't think so. Think of Closing Argument, Big Brown, Smarty Jones. . .all of these horses had outside posts and performed well.
RS: If Dublin has really spectacular stamina, he'll have to show it on Derby day, because I doubt his post position will do him any good.
EF: I believe it will hurt him, but how much has yet to be determined. He's a strong colt, and D. Wayne Lukas is a terrific trainer. I'm confident.
Q: Stately Victor, the Blue Grass winner, has drawn gate six. He is 30-1 on the morning line. However, he has been training very well at Churchill Downs and many people think that his Blue Grass was no fluke. What do you think?
DJ: The Blue Grass has produced some inconsistent results in the past, so it's hard to say. But I'm going to stick with my opinion that Stately Victor will perform well in the Derby. I think he'll hit the board.
RS: I love Stately Victor; and since his training at Churchill Downs has been going well, I think he has a shot at victory.
EF: We-ell. . . flukes do happen. However, #6 is a good position, and his training has, indeed, been encouraging, so he might be able to surprise me.
Q: In gate ten is the Blue Grass runner up Paddy O'Prado. He has been looking very, very good at Churchill Downs and many feel he is sitting on a big race. He also has three-time Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. What do you think of him?
DJ: I like Stately Victor better.
RS: Paddy O'Prado is definitely looking interesting. I would say that he is one of the best colts running right now.
EF: He bears watching. Kent has been known to do amazing things, not to mention he has a good gate position.
Q: The filly Devil May Care, who was entered in only the Kentucky Derby, drew gate eleven. What do you think of her chances?
DJ: I think she's probably a good filly, but this is a tough field. My gut feeling is that she's going to tire in the stretch.
RS: It would be great seeing a filly win, but the colts will be pretty stiff competition.
EF: I'm all for the fillies! I was one of those who cheered Eight Belles on in 2008, and Rags to Riches was my pick for the 2007 Belmont. If she wins, I won't be crying!
Q: Super Saver, at 15-1, drew gate four. He will be ridden by two time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: I think Super Saver should be watched carefully. I like him a lot.
RS: I've been a fan of Super Saver for awhile now. Super Saver's great!
EF: Calvin Borel has my utmost respect, and Super Saver looks terrific to me. The odds don't worry me, and the #4 gate is a coveted position. So, I think his chances are good.
Q: What about the twelve horse, Conveyance? He doesn't seem to be a mile and a quarter horse, but many feel this front running son of Indian Charlie could get the job done. What do you think?
DJ: I think Conveyance can do it. If Lookin at Lucky doesn't get the job done, perhaps Conveyance can get another Derby win for Bob Baffert.
RS: Conveyance has been one of the horses that is down the list of my Derby picks; although I must admit, he's may do well.
EF: A front runner, hmmm. . . I have the niggling suspicion that he'll start out strong and then fade off as the race progresses.
Q: Make Music for Me is another interesting colt. His morning line odds are 50-1, but he has finished second and third behind Lookin at Lucky multiple times. What do you think of him?
DJ: I don't know too much about this colt, but I do like Santa Anita horses in the Derby. And if he's been racing behind Lookin at Lucky, and Lookin at Lucky get's trapped behind horses because of his #1 post position. . . hmm . . .
RS: I love Make Music for Me! He was one of my original Derby picks (I had him second for awhile there) and I was so disappointed when I found out he wouldn't be running . . . but then he got in! I think he has a wonderful chance of doing well.
EF: He isn’t my favorite. But neither esd Mine That Bird, and how could anyone forget how that little gelding?
Q: What about the thirteen horse Jackson Bend? Despite the fact that his pedigree doesn't scream a mile and a quarter, this colt never gives up and always fights to the finish. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: Well, I wasn't expecting him to get in the Derby, so now I've got to rethink things. I think he could be sitting on an impressive run. Part of what makes the Derby so exciting is that we don't really know if any of the horses can go a mile and a quarter---none of them ever have! Who knows? I like Jackson Bend.
RS: From what I've heard, Jackson Bend is a determined and tough horse, so I would say yes, I think he'll be able to pull off something.
EF: He's definitely got drive, and determination, but I'm not sure if he has enough to really be a factor towards the end of the race. His broodmare sire, however, is Tabasco Cat. . . the 1994 Preakness and Belmont winner. . . he could do something.
Q: Mission Impazible, the Louisiana Derby winner, seems to be coming into the race the right way. He has been improving in every start and has really taken to Churchill Downs. He also seems to like wet tracks. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: This Derby track probably will be wet, so that's something in his favor.
RS: Very good. I have been quite impressed with this guy.
EF: Very, very good. I like what I see. He's a strong runner and if he keeps improving the way he has, I think he should peak at the Derby.
Q: I find it interesting that three of the last four Derby winners have made their final starts five weeks before the big day. This year, that pattern favors Dean's Kitten, Mission Impazible, Conveyance, and Discreetly Mine. Do you think that those magical five week layoffs will provide a Derby winner yet again?
DJ: This is an interesting trend, but I'm going to skip over these horses and look one week further back, to Ice Box. I liked his run in the Florida Derby.
RS: Personally, I haven't been giving Dean's Kitten, Conveyance, or Discreetly Mine much thought as for a Kentucky Derby win, but as I said before, Mission Impazible is really an excellent horse.
EF: A layoff is good, and as I have said before, I like Mission Impazible's looks. Discreetly Mine, Conveyance, Dean's Kitten --- well, I'm not too excited. I doubt they'll hit the board.
Q: What about Homeboykris? He hasn't raced in nine weeks, and hasn't done anything of note since last October when he won the Champagne. But in that race, he defeated Discreetly Mine, Super Saver, and Dublin, all of whom made it to this year's Kentucky Derby. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: I think he could be another Giacomo or Mind That Bird. This horse should definitely be considered, and I always watch the Champagne winner very closely.
RS: Homeboykris should definitely be watched.
EF: October was a long time ago, but the Champagne is nothing to be sneezed at. He might make the board.
Q: Then there is Awesome Act. The Wood Memorial was a nightmare but he still finished third, beaten only a head for second. What do you think of his chances here?
DJ: I'm less impressed with this horse. I believe the Wood was run very slowly, and the horses behind Eskendreya were way up the track.
RS: Because of Awesome Act's trouble in the Wood Memorial, I am not too thrilled with him. But you can't just forget about him; he might just pull off something.
EF: Awesome Act has had a nightmare in the Wood Memorial; hopefully he'll get a dream trip in the Derby.
Q: Now let's briefly discuss the grade II American Turf Stakes, which will be run right before the Kentucky Oaks this afternoon. Eleven horses entered, but the ten horse, Make Music for Me will be scratching because he managed to sneak into the Kentucky Derby. But the big name in the race is Setsuko, who many feel is the best three year old in the country right now. Unfortunately, he did not make it into the Derby. But the Belmont is still a possibility. What do you think of him in general and in this race?
DJ: I think he could run well here, and he could be something to watch out for in the Belmont.
RS: He's a lovely horse, and the Turf Stakes' runners should be on the lookout for this amazingly incredible colt.
EF: He is undeniably one of the better horses this year, despite his insufficient graded earnings. I firmly believe he will hit the board.
Q: Who do you think will win the American Turf Stakes? Setsuko, the morning line favorite Lost Aptitude, or one of the longer shots like Doubles Partner or Guys Reward?
DJ: I'm taking Lost Aptitude and Kent Desormeaux.
RS: I would go with Saint Eligius, ridden by Alan Garcia.
EF: Give me Doubles Partner. He's got a great jockey, a great trainer, and a fair gate position.
Q: Now let's take a look at the grade II La Troienne Stakes, also on the Oaks undercard. The grade II race for fillies and mares three year old and upward drew a small field of six, but includes reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Zardana, who upset her in the New Orleans Ladies last March, is also here. What do you think of the race?
DJ: Rachel Alexandra will win it, easy.
RS: Rachel Alexandra is really a quite terrific horse, and she's most definitely my choice.
EF: Be fair to Be Fair. Though I would like to see her a little further out from the rail, and with slightly lower odds, she looks good to me, and I think that second place is hers.
Q: Do you think that Rachel Alexandra will be upset? She does have to carry four to six pounds more than any other entry.
DJ: No, I think Rachel has got this one. She just wasn't quite ready in that last race.
RS: It's hard to say . . . My pick is Rachel Alexandra, but you never know.
EF: No. Enough said. : )
Q: Care to reveal your top two picks?
DJ: Rachel Alexandra and Unrivaled Belle
RS: Rachel Alexandra and Unrivaled Belle!!
EF: Rachel Alexandra and Be Fair, followed very closely by Zardana.
Q: Let's take a quick glance at the grade III Kentucky Juvenile Stakes for two year old colts or fillies, four races before the Kentucky Oaks. If you can believe it, the three favorites are fillies. The morning line favorite at 5-2 is the seven horse Nina Fever, who will be ridden by Robby Albarado. Do you think that she will win?
DJ: She looks good to me.
RS: Nina Fever looks spectacular in this race, but Boys at Tosconova also looks pretty good.
Q: Among the six colts, Wetzel is the co-favorite with Lou Brissie. Do you think that they can upset the fillies?
DJ: Well, it's certainly possible, but I like the favorite here.
RS: Possibly, possibly . . . I like Wetzel myself, but I'm doubting an upset here, for different reasons.
EF: Wetzel and Lou Brissie are obviously good horses, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either of them be an upset.
Q: I'm down to the final few questions. The Alysheba Stakes, two races before the Kentucky Oaks, drew an impressive field of older males. The morning line favorite is Arson Squad, just narrowly favored over last year's Kentucky Derby favorite Friesan Fire. Cool Coal Man, Chocolate Candy, Macho Again, Bullsbay, and Flying Private make this a truly memorable field. Who do you think will win?
DJ: Wow, what a field! Hard to pick, but I'm going with Cool Coal Man.
RS: Chocolate Candy, although Arson Squad seems like he's ready for anything.
EF: Friesan Fire was one of my favorites in the Derby last year, but his finish was disappointing. Nevertheless, he's my pick.
Q: What about the grade III Eight Belles Stakes on Derby Day? Do you think that there is any chance of Hot Dixie Chick being upset?
DJ: No, she looks good to me.
RS: I personally like Bell's Shoes---and I must say, I'm so excited that Eight Belles got her own stakes! She was a remarkable little filly who is greatly missed.
EF: Uhhhh, not really. . . she's an impressive filly.
Q: Now, this is final race that we are going to discuss. The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes, run right before the Kentucky Derby. Two of the runners, Court Vision and General Quarters, both also-rans from their crops Kentucky Derby. Court Vision finished off the board behind Big Brown in 2008, while General Quarters ran tenth behind Mine That Bird last year. What do you think of their chances here?
DJ: I'm taking General Quarters here. I liked him last year, so maybe he can do better this time.
RS: Court Vision! I don't exactly know why, but I've always been very fond of him.
EF: I think the top three will be; Court Vision, Battle of Hastings, General Quarters.
Q: Final question. Would anyof you care to reveal your Derby super high fives?
DJ: Okay here it goes: #1, Dublin. #2, Lookin at Lucky, #3, Ice Box, #4, Stately Victor, #5, Super Saver.
RS: Stately Victor is first for me . . . then Dublin, then Homeboykris, then Ice Box, and then Super Saver.
EF: Line of David is calling loudly to me. I can't stop thinking how he blasted out of the gate in the Arkansas. . . so, even though I'm doubtful about his ability to go a mile and a quarter, I'm putting him at #1, followed closely by Devil May Care, Dublin, Mission Impazible, and Paddy O'Prado.
Thanks for the interviews, you three!
-Keelerman
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