If you can believe it, the Triple Crown is nearly over. On June 5th, the final leg will be completed. Just yesterday, Dave in Dixie was added to the list of starters. But although the race is very near, I'm afraid that we can't concentrate on it yet. Because there are still many good races to be run before then, including the Metropolitan Handicap for older horses. So let's take a look at what's being run around the country, beginning with the Dogwood Stakes for three year old fillies.
DOGWOOD STAKES (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, May 29th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
The race has drawn a very solid field, and I would not be surprised if a very good horse comes out of this race. One of these runners might even become a Breeders' Cup champion!
To begin, there is the number one horse, Tap Tap Tapping. 10-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Tapit comes into the race with only a maiden win. In her last race, she ran fifth in an allowance race at Churchill Downs a month ago. But she did finish third in the grade III Honeybee Stakes back in March. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by F. Lenclud. She is trained by D. R. Vance. I don't think that she will win, but she has a shot at hitting the board.
Then there is the number two horse, Age of Humor. 6-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Distorted Humor has not raced since finishing twelfth in the Kentucky Oaks last month, beaten nearly twenty-two lengths. Prior to that, however, she had been running very nicely against very good company, finishing second to Liam's Dream in an allowance race and defeating Fuzzy Britches in the Busanda Stakes. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by F. C. Torres. She is trained by Michael Maker.
This brings us to the number three horse, Fuzz Britches. The daughter of Pollard's Vision has run five times this year, including an incredible two races in the span of four days back in January. On the 6th, she won a starter allowance race, and then came right back to finish second in the Busanda Stakes. Incredible. In her last race, she missed winning an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs by a nose. Although she is 8-1 on the morning line, I feel that she is a major contender here. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by C. J. Lanerie. She is trained by Rick Dutrow Jr.
Then there is the number four horse, Ailalea. The daughter of Pulpit is the morning line favorite at 8-5 based off of her solid fifth in the Kentucky Oaks last month. She is possibly the best filly in the race, but will she win? She will have to carry the top weight of 123 pounds, giving away four to six pounds. Will see what she can do. Anyway, she will be ridden by Calvin Borel and is trained by Todd Pletcher.
This brings us to the morning line longshot at 15-1, Helen Belen. The daughter of Five Star Day has never started on dirt, but comes off a third in the Indiana Downs Distaff Stakes, run at one mile in track record time. I would not be surprised if she runs better than her odds, but she probably won't win. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by S. Gonzalez Jr. She is trained by W. J. Denzik Jr.
Then there is the number six horse, Vertical Vision. At 6-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Pollard's Vision is a big contender. She has not raced since finishing a fast closing second in the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It's hard to say if she can win, but she should be able to more than hold her own against these fillies. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. She is trained by Steven Asmussen.
This brings us to the number seven horse, Visavis. The daughter of Indian Charlie comes off of a solid second in the Eight Belles Stakes at Churchill Downs and looks ready to keep improving. At 3-1, she is the morning line second choice. Can she contend against this group? I really don't know. But she should be able to run a solid race. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Theriot. She is trained by S. Margolis.
Finally, we come to the number eight horse, Bell's Shoes. Like Visavis, the daughter of Mineshaft comes out of the Eight Belles Stakes, where she ran fourth. 10-1 on the morning line, she doesn't look like a contender here, but she has hit the board in a couple of stakes races and could surprise many people by hitting the board. She will be ridden by J. K. Court and is trained by W. H. Fires. She will carry 117 pounds.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Fuzzy Britches
2 Ailalea
3 Age of Humor
4 Visavis
5 Vertical Vision
6 Helen Belen
7 Bell's Shoes
8 Tap Tap Tapping
It's hard to say who will win, but I think that Fuzzy Britches will come through with a win. Ailalea should be a huge contender, but I don't think that she is going to run her best race. Age of Humor should make a good run, and she can win. I'm going to take a stand against Visavis, thinking she may bounce off of her run in the Eight Belles. It should be a great race. I'll be watching it!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although there isn't a ton of three year old action this weekend, there are some notable older horse races, and I will discuss those to some extent as I prepare to switch over to discussing Breeders' Cup in a couple weeks. But to begin, I'll give a brief overview of the Marine Stakes at Woodbine.
The mile and a sixteenth race for three year olds drew a field of six prior to Giant's Tomb scratching, leaving the field with five runners. The slight morning line favorite at 9-5 is Exhi, who won the grade II Lexington Stakes in mid April. However, I would not be surprised if he is sent off as the heavy favorite.
The second choice at 2-1 is Hotep. The colt comes into the race off of an easy win in the Wando Stakes at Woodbine as the slight favorite. Prior to that, however, he ran tenth and eleventh in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby down in Louisiana. So it's hard to say how well he will run tomorrow.
Bear's Hard Ten, Essence Hit Man, and Mint Chip complete the field.
Then there is the USA Stakes, at a mile and a sixteenth on turf for three year olds. The big name here is Coyote Legend, who will try to extend his winning streak to six while trying turf for the first time. He is undefeated this year, and I am confident that he will win. Fortunia and Looks Purrrfect are expected to challenge him, but he should be able to put them away in the stretch and win by three.
I'll be back later with further analysis on the Lone Star Park's Monday races, but now I shall move on to the grade I older horse races that are being run this weekend.
To begin, there is the Gamely Stakes for fillies and mares three and up. At nine furlongs on the turf, the race drew Forever Together, the 2008 Champion Older Female, as well as Tuscan Evening, who is currently leading that division this year. It will probably come down to those two, but Gotta Have Her, Cat by the Tale, and Well Monied are right there to snatch the win if the big two falter.
But of all the races being run over the next few days, there is none better than the Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park. More commonly known as the Met Mile, the one mile race has always been a very prestigious race, but it has even more lustre this year as Quality Road, one of the frontrunners for Horse of the Year, makes his return off of a brief layoff. But he will have competition.
The race drew a truly incredible field of eight. Any horse can win, although it would take a monster performance to upset Quality Road. But can any horse do it?
I think that Le Grand Cru can. He comes into the race off of an upset win in the Westchester Handicap at this track, completing the one mile race in 1:34 4/5. In that race, he defeated last year's Met Mile winner Bribon. But the biggest reason he can win is the fact that he is trained by Allen Jerkens, who earned his nickname "The Giant Killer" by upsetting Secretariat twice with two different horses, Kelso three times with Beau Purple, and I don't remember the others. But he once ruled New York, Aqueduct especially, and I would love to see Le Grand Cru win it for him. Perhaps Le Grand Cru can even get him his first Breeders' Cup win later this year!
Of the remaining horses, Warrior's Reward, Musket Man, and You And I Forever could also pull the upset. And anyone else could contend. It's a solid race, and I can't wait for it to be run.
The only other question is this: Can Quality Road break the track record, and at the same time, can he topple the great Dr. Fager's world record dirt mile? The time to beat is 1:32 1/5. It has been equaled. But it has never been beaten. Will it fall? Only if the track is fast. There is a 30% chance of rain at Belmont on the 31st. If the rains can hold off, we could see a monster performance. Quality Road is a standout and time will tell where he fits in history.
However, in the grade I Shoemaker Mile Stakes at Hollywood Park, there is no stand out. Karelian will probably be the favorite, based on his win in the grade I Makers Mark Mile last month, but Mr Gruff, Gallant Son, Global Hunter, Noble Court, and Compari are all looking to pull the upset. However, I think that Karelian is the best horse and will come through with a win.
RACE RECAPS
Yes, this post is shorter than usual, but I am a bit behind and need to condense things a bit so that I can catch up. I want to be live tomorrow with updates on the races, as well as additional picks, so I'm going to have to make these race recaps quick.
The first race I shall discuss was a nine furlong allowance race at Belmont Park on the turf for three year olds and up. The horse of note was New Madrid. Trained by Tim Ice, he was using the race as a prep for the Belmont Stakes. All he had to do was run a solid race and he would be running in the final jewel of the Triple Crown.
He did not run well.
Despite setting pedestrian fractions of :25 flat, :50 2/5, and 1:15 flat, he failed to continue and ended up fifth, beaten three and three quarter lengths by the impressive winner Kindergarten Kid. Favored Spanish Art, who was also my pick, finished third. The plans for the Belmont were scrapped.
Then there was the Danzig Stakes at Penn National. A six furlong race for three year olds, the heavy favorite was Turbo Speed, but my pick was Foreign Argument. The second choice on the morning line, I figured that he would be sent off at about 3-1, but as it turns out, he was sent off as the 11-1 longshot.
Guess who won?
With an impressive inside rally, Foreign Argument blew past everyone to win by three lengths. The rider of Gator Bay, who ran second, lodged an objection but the stewards let the results stand.
As for Turbo Speed, he finished last while never really threatening.
This brings us to the Wonders Delight Stakes, a six furlong race at Penn National for three year old fillies. The very heavy favorite was Liam's Dream, and she was also my pick. After sitting just off the pace for the first quarter of a mile, Liam's Dream came three wide to win by two and a half. Lovabull Me came late to finish second at 26-1, while Listen In ran third.
Then there was the New York Stallion Stakes at Belmont Park. A seven furlong race for three year olds, the 1-4 favorite was the filly Franny Freud, challenging colts for the second time in her career. Some wondered whether she deserved to be the favorite, as she was making her first start on turf, but she proved that she could run on anything by wiring the race for a six length victory. The final time was a sharp 1:21 2/5, and I would not be surprised if this filly becomes an Eclipse champion someday. She was extremely impressive. 27-1 Leatherhead rallied for second, a length in front of the 3-1 second choice Make Note.
This brings us to the one mile and seventy yards Spend a Buck Stakes, run at Monmouth Park for three year olds. The mild favorite was Ibboyee at 2-1, with Our Dark Knight and Nacho Friend the co-second choices. Rule by Night, Allez Reef, and Afleet Again were all well bet too.
It was a tight finish, but in the end, Ibboyee got home first. Rule by Night set the early pace, followed closely by Our Dark Knight and Allez Reef. Ibboyee was back in third, followed by Afleet Again, My Elusive Star, Medaglia's Express, and Nacho Friend.
After fractions of :24 flat, :49 2/5, and 1:14 flat, Rule by Night was still the leader, but only by a head. Ibboyee was coming to tackle him while Allez Reef was trying to stay in contention. Afleet Again was within a length and a half of the lead while Our Dark Knight appeared to be fading.
But as they turned for home, Our Dark Knight came back on again. Afleet Again was coming, but suddenly drifted off to the outside, costing him the race.
Down to the finish they came and it was Ibboyee by a half length. Our Dark Knight was second, a neck in front of Afleet Again.
So here are the results. . .
1 Ibboyee
2 Our Dark Knight
3 Afleet Again
4 Nacho Friend
5 Rule by Night
6 Allez Reef
7 My Elusive Star
8 Medaglia's Express
. . . versus my picks.
1 Our Dark Knight
2 Ibboyee
3 Afleet Again
4 Nacho Friend
5 Rule by Night
6 Allez Reef
7 My Elusive Star
8 Medaglia's Express
So I didn't do too badly. I was pleased with the results, but being a huge fan of Afleet Alex foals, I wish that Afleet Again had stayed running straight. I'm confident that he would have won if he hadn't drifted out.
Then there was the Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes. A grade III race for three year olds at Hollywood Park, the favorite in the seven furlong race was Concord Point, just slightly over Smiling Tiger. At the wire it was those two, but not in that order. Smiling Tiger went neatly wire-to-wire, fighting off Concord Point to win by a half length. Domonation finished third, followed by Macias and Skipshot.
So here are the results. . .
1 Smiling Tiger
2 Concord Point
3 Domonation
4 Macias
5 Skipshot
6 Big Man Has a Sign
7 Dixie Trouper
8 Mr Tokyo
9 Hawaiian Springs
. . . versus my picks.
1 Concord Point
2 Macias
3 Skipshot
4 Hawaiian Springs
5 Smiling Tiger
6 Domonation
7 Dixie Trouper
8 Mr Tokyo
9 Big Man Has a Sign
So I didn't do terribly, and I didn't do great. Concord Point nearly got the win, but he just couldn't get there.
Then there was the Arlington Classic Stakes. A mile and a sixteenth turf race for three year olds, the favorite was Workin for Hops. Family Foundation was the second choice, followed by Summer Movie, Indy Scent, and Alfarabi. It was going to be a very close race.
Or so I thought.
In the end, it was all about Workin for Hops who won the race in wire-to-wire fashion by two and a quarter lengths. Alfarabi rallied wekk for second, with Gleam of Hope third.
The final time was 1:45 2/5.
So here are the results. . .
1 Workin for Hops
2 Alfarabi
3 Gleam of Hope
4 Mister Marti Gras
5 Our Champion
6 Family Foundation
7 Indy Scent
8 Summer Movie
. . . versus my selections.
1 Workin for Hops
2 Gleam of Hope
3 Alfarabi
4 Our Champion
5 Mister Marti Gras
6 Family Foundation
7 Summer Movie
8 Indy Scent
So I was very pleased with how the race turned out. I had the right idea on every horse!
This brings us to the American 1,000 Guineas. The favorite was Queen of the Creek, but I liked Bay to Bay and Go Ask Alex. Go Ask Alex was coming off of a track record performance in the Indiana Distaff Stakes, but was only the fourth choice here.
As it turns out, Go Ask Alex nearly pulled off the upset. She sped away to an early lead and had a three length lead at the eighth pole, but Bay to Bay came charging fast and ended up with a two and a half length win. Go Ask Alex held second over Queen of the Creek, with Orchestrator fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Bay to Bay
2 Go Ask Alex
3 Queen of the Creek
4 Orchestrator
5 Chantilly Nayla
6 Kilmore Quay
7 Besitos
8 Lucky Lass
. . . versus my selections.
1 Bay to Bay
2 Go Ask Alex
3 Queen of the Creek
4 Orchestrator
5 Kilmore Quay
6 Chantilly Nayla
7 Lucky Lass
8 Besitos
So I had a nice superfecta there. The final time was 1:39 1/5. Will Bay to Bay become a super filly? Who knows. But I think that she will become a grade I winner without a doubt. We'll see what happens.
And finally, there was a seven furlong allowance race at Belmont Park. For three year olds and up, the three year old Afleet Express was the favorite. He was also my pick. I have loved this colt since his maiden win and have been waiting for breakthrough performance, because I am sure that he is grade I caliber.
He finally proved it.
Sitting second for the first furlongs, Afleet Express made a strong three wide move to take the lead and he never looked back, winning by seven and three quarter lengths. The Pegasus Stakes has been mentioned as a possible next start for him.
And so I'm afraid that I am finished for now, but I will be back later with more picks and thoughts on other races. On Met Mile day, I will be live, posting updates as Quality Road's possible coronation comes closer. Will he be crowned king, or will he be upset by a commoner? It's going to be great. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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