Well, the Kentucky Derby is over and soon the Preakness will be too. A lot happened last week, and a lot will happen next week. But before we can get into next week, we have another Saturday to get through, a Saturday headlined by the Lone Star Derby and the Dwyer Stakes. I don't have a lot of time left, but let's take a quick look at what's happening around the country, beginning with the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park.
DWYER STAKES (gr. II) ---- Belmont Park, Race 9, May 8th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
The nine furlong Dwyer Stakes, which is replacing the canceled Peter Pan Stakes, is Belmont Park's local prep for the Belmont Stakes. The race drew a field of seven, headlined by classy stakes runner Drosselmeyer and the extremely solid Turf Melody.
We'll begin with the number one horse, Carnivore. The son of Giant's Causeway comes off of a second place finish in an allowance race nine days ago to Nacho Friend, beaten two and three quarter lengths. Prior to that, he had run fifth behind Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial and competed in three maiden races, hitting the board in every one. He does have a bit of speed, and could threaten for the win here. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
Then there is the number two horse, Drosselmeyer. The son of Distorted Humor won an allowance race back in January before running fourth in the Risen Star and third, beaten a length, in the Louisiana Derby. He will be the heavy favorite tomorrow and should run a winning race. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and will carry 116 pounds.
This brings us to the number three horse, Turf Melody. The veteran campaigner will be making his tenth start at his tenth different racetrack. He is actually the only stakes winner in the field, winning the Springboard Mile Stakes last year. His connections actually considered running him in the Preakness Stakes next week, but they decided that this would be the easier spot and should he run well here, they could run him in the Belmont Stakes four weeks from now. Tomorrow, he will carry top weight of 121 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.
Then there is the number four horse, Soaring Empire. The son of Empire Maker has hit the board in three of his four starts, his only poor showing coming in the Florida Derby back in March when he ran eighth, beaten fourteen lengths. In that race, he didn't get a very good trip, and looks ready to rebound here. He will be carrying 116 pounds and will be ridden by Eddie Castro.
But don't forget the number five horse, Remand! The son of Successful Appeal has made three starts so far, winning his maiden race, finishing off the board in an allowance race, and running third behind Eightfiveinafifty and Hurricane Ike in the Bay Shore Stakes last month. The 3-1 second choice, he can more than hold his own against this group. He will be carrying 116 pounds and will be ridden by John Velazquez.
This brings us to the number six horse, Codoy. The son of Bernstein has only won one race from eight starts, but has finished second four times, third once, and finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes before being disqualified and placed second. However, his best race was probably his fifth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, beaten seven and three quarter lengths by upset winner Stately Victor. And he was only beaten about three and a half lengths for second, and only two and a half for third. Not too bad. Although he is the 15-1 morning line longshot, I would not be surprised if he pulled the upset. It's worth noting that this will be his first start on dirt and perhaps he just hates synthetic and turf! Tomorrow, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by C. Velasquez.
Finally, we come to the number seven horse, Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft has only made four starts, winning twice and finishing third once. He comes into the Dwyer off of a troubled ninth place finish behind Mission Impazible, beaten six and three quarter lengths, in the Louisiana Derby last March. He has been training very nicely, breezing a half mile in :47 3/5 at Churchill Downs a few days ago and looks ready to roll. He is 7-2 on the morning line, will carry 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
So who do I like? Here are my picks. . .
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 Turf Melody
4 Soaring Empire
5 Remand
6 Carnivore
7 Codoy
It was a tough decision, but I'm going to go with Drosselmeyer. I think that he would have won the Louisiana Derby if he had gotten a slightly better trip, and he looks like the best horse here. Fly Down should also run a good race off of his Louisiana Derby disaster, and Turf Melody always runs well. Soaring Empire is capable of running a winning race, but I don't think that he is ready for a top performance. I'm going to take a stand against Remand and hope that he doesn't run like he did in the Bay Shore Stakes. Carnivore might run well, but I don't think so. And finally, Codoy is capable of running a winning race, but he has never started on dirt before and I don't think that he is going to fire.
Now I shall move on and discuss the. . .
LONE STAR DERBY (gr. III) ---- Lone Star Park, Race 9, May 8th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
The mile and a sixteenth Lone Star Derby, which has always drawn very classy runners and turned out some very solid horses, came up a bit light this year. Six horses have been entered, and I'm afraid that none of them are stakes winners. To be honest, only three of them have competed in stakes. And only one has finished in the top three in a stakes.
But hey, it's not a terrible race and it actually drew a very fascinating field. Who knows? Maybe a super horse will emerge from this race. . .
Anyway, let's take a look at the entries, beginning with the number one horse Wando Redd.
Wando Redd, a son of Wando, is the only horse in the race to have placed in a stakes race, running second in the John Franks Memorial Sales Stakes at Evangeline Downs last August. He has only started once since then, breaking his maiden impressively Evangeline on April 7th. He is 12-1 on the morning line, which may be a bit high, and he will be ridden by C. Landeros. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other entry.
Then there is Gilded Woodman. The son of Gilded Crusader has only made one start, running eleventh, beaten nineteen and a quarter lengths, in a Maiden Special Weight race on the turf at Lone Star Park. I can't imagine why he is entered here, but that's what worries me. I almost think he might be sitting on a big race. But then, he ran eleventh only eight days ago, so who knows. He is 50-1 on the morning line and will be ridden by J Guzman.
This brings us to Thatlleaveamark. The son of Marked Tree has started ten times, winning twice. Fortunately, those two wins were in his last two races, and he might be ready to run a big one. At the very least he could hit the board. He is 30-1 and will be ridden by M. Escobar. This will be his first stakes race, his best race so far coming in a claiming race which he won two weeks ago.
Then there is the four horse, the 9-5 shot Game On Dude. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Awesome Again will try to give Baffert his fourth win in this race. Bob Baffert won the Lone Star Derby last year and has had considerable success in Texas. Game On Dude comes into the race off of a fifth place finish, beaten nineteen and a half lengths, in the Derby Trial Stakes two weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run seventh, beaten ten and three quarter lengths in the Florida Derby and had broken his maiden by three back in February. To be ridden by Martin Garcia, he can win this race with ease, just as he could run last. Who knows what he might do?
This brings us to the 8-5 favorite Henshin Hero. The son of Dance Master has started five times, winning three and running second once. His only off the board finish came in an allowance optional claiming race where he unseated his rider and did not finish the race. If you toss out that race, he is undefeated on dirt, as his only other loss came on the turf at Keeneland where he ran second in an allowance race to Flamin' Hot, a very consistent, classy allowance horse. I believe that Henshin Hero is ready to run an excellent race and can win easily. He will be ridden by B.J. Walker Jr.
Finally, we come to the number six horse Crider. 2-1 on the morning line, the son of Closing Argument has been racing very well in allowance and stakes company, finishing fourth to Dryfly in the Smarty Jones Stakes and fifth, beaten only five and a half lengths, in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance, Dublin, Cardiff Giant, and Mission Impazible. And when Cardiff Giant was disqualified, he was placed fourth. He comes into tomorrow's race off of a second to A Student in an allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park after leading in the stretch. He has been training nicely and is capable of pulling off the upset. He will be ridden by A. Gryder.
It's was tough to decide, but here are my picks. . .
1 Crider
2 Henshin Hero
3 Game On Dude
4 Wando Redd
5 Thatlleaveamark
6 Gilded Woodman
I could have gone a lot of different ways here. I had originally thought about putting Henshin Hero on top, but decided to leave him off and hope that he and Wando Redd dual themselves into submission. Game On Dude is capable of running a great race, but I just don't think he is going to fire his best shot. So that's why I'm going with Crider. He has been proven on a less than perfect track and comes from off the pace, which could be very good here. Thatlleaveamark has an excellent chance at rallying for a piece of it, but I just don't think so. Gilded Woodman looks outclassed here, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hit the board or even won.
My last thought is this: I might end up changing my mind on the order of finish in the Lone Star Derby depending on how the weather looks. If I do decide to change my picks, I will put up a short post with my new order of finish. Just thought I'd mention it.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Yes, as usual, there is a pretty decent set of other races to watch, even though they probably won't affect the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes.
To begin, there is the Texas Stallion Stakes for three year old colts and geldings at Lone Star Park. On the undercard of the Lone Star Derby, the morning line favorite at 4-5 is Coyote Legend, and there is no way I'm going to pick against him. He has already beaten older males and won two stakes races at west and should be able to run very well tomorrow. Big Texas Daddy might give him a run for his money, but I don't think so.
Then there is the Texas Stallion Stakes for three year old fillies at Lone Star Park. The morning line favorite is Tin Top Cat, but Camille's Appeal and She's a Bond Girl are expected to make her earn it. I don't have a really good opinion on this race, but Tin Top Cat and Camille's Appeal look good.
Another good race is the seven furlong grade III Railbird Stakes out at Hollywood Park. The race has drawn a field of ten, and I must say that Tanda, All Due Respect, and Switch all look good and will probably fill out the trifecta. Tanda is probably the best filly in the race, but you can't ignore the rest of the field. It should be a great race.
Finally, there is a mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Churchill Downs on the ninth for three year olds. The morning line favorite is Prince Will I Am, and I can see him winning with ease, but he will likely receive stiff challenges from Colizeo and Berberis. But with Calvin Borel in the saddle, Prince Will I Am should get a very good trip.
And that is all. It's going to be a very enjoyable day of races, and within a few days we will have the Preakness Stakes and undercard to discuss. It's going to be great fun.
Enjoy the races! Go Super Saver!
-Keelerman
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