Sunday, May 09, 2010

THE TOP TEN, for the PREAKNESS STAKES, as of May 9th, 2010

1. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He got the perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby and came through with a two and a half length win. He has proven that he can handle the distance and the slop, and he should take to Pimlico just fine. Todd Pletcher intends to breeze him once before the Preakness.
2. CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
Worked a brilliant seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 at Santa Anita Park in preparation for the Preakness. He will be coming into the race off of a six week layoff, which isn't great, but Ice Box did the same thing in the Derby and ran second. This colt may provide Super Saver with the stiffest challenge.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
According to D. Wayne Lukas, you would never know this colt had run in the Derby. He is fit and ready for the Preakness and will pick up Garrett Gomez as a rider. I can see this colt rebounding in a big way.
4. HURRICANE IKE Graeme Hall - Parental Uproar, by Future Storm John W. Sadler
Winner of the Derby Trial two weeks ago, he received a picture perfect trip under Calvin Borel, but loses the top jockey as Borel will be riding Super Saver in the Preakness. The colt has a lot of questions to answer, and his pedigree says the Preakness may be a bit too long for him, but I think he can overcome it.
5. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Stephen Got Even - Hear This, by Prospector's Music Derek Ryan
Has been training beautifully for the Preakness
6. FIRST DUDE Stephen Got Even - Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike Dale L. Romans
Worked a very sharp five furlongs yesterday at Churchill Downs preparing for the Preakness. It was the fastest workout of the day at that distance. This is a colt that can hit the board in the Preakness and is a major contender.
7. PADDY O'PRADO El Prado - Fun House, by Prized Dale L. Romans
He ran much better than I thought he would in the Derby and should relish the slightly shorter Preakness Stakes. I would not be surprised if he returned to his front running style at Pimlico.
8. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
Once again, he ran into horrible trouble, and but still managed to finish sixth after a nightmare trip in the Derby. As of right now, there is a "52%" chance of this colt going to the Preakness. However, if he does, he will not be ridden by Garrett Gomez, who will ride Dublin instead.
9. AIKENITE Yes It's True - Silverlado, by Saint Ballado Todd Pletcher
Worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 earlier today, the ninth fastest of nineteen workouts at that distance. The runner up in the Derby Trial, he may be coming into the Preakness the right way and could save the race for Pletcher is Super Saver falters.
10a. YAWANNA TWIST Yonaguska - Twist and Pop, by Oliver's Twist Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
This talented New York bred has never finished worse than second, but has never won a stakes race. He was the runner up in the Gotham Stakes, the runner up in the Illinois Derby, and it is unknown if he can go a mile and three sixteenths. And workouts have been anything but brilliant. But he always tries his best, and sometimes that is enough.
10b. A LITTLE WARM Stormin Fever - Minidar, by Alydar Anthony W. Dutrow
The runner up in the Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm has many questions to answer. Can he go a mile and three sixteenths? Can he rate just off the lead? And above all, is he good enough?

WATCH VERY CLOSELY

BUSHWHACKED Had a temperature of 103 the other day and may not run.
EXHI Not sure if he is going to come.
JACKSON BEND I'm not going to put him on until his connections decide to enter him.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Might run in the Preakness, or he might run in the Belmont. Or perhaps he'll run in both.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE Disappointing in the Kentucky Derby, but could rebound in the Preakness.
NORTHERN GIANT Very disappointing in the Arkansas Derby, but could rebound in the Preakness.
PLEASANT PRINCE He has been racing very frequently, but it doesn't seem to affect him. He can win the Preakness.

POSSIBLE BELMONT CONTENDERS

AFLEET AGAIN May be a contender, but he may not want to go that far.
AFLEET EXPRESS I haven't given up on him yet.
DROSSELMEYER Dwyer was a bit of a disappointment, but by no means a bad race.
DUBLIN A mile and a half might be beyond his means, but always tries his best.
FLY DOWN Very impressive in the Dwyer. Serious contender.
ICE BOX Ran second in the Derby despite traffic trouble. Serious contender.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY Can he go a mile and a half? Will he even run?
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME I think he has the talent to win the Belmont, but can he handle Super Saver and Ice Box?
PLEASANT PRINCE Impossible to ignore. Losing by a nose to Ice Box in the Florida Derby is no laughing matter.
SETSUKO Disappointing in the American Turf Stakes, but wasn't beaten too badly. Could be a real contender.
SUPER SAVER There are questions that need to be answered, such as can he go a mile and a half, but right now he looks really good.
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN He always comes running late, but can he match strides with Ice Box? We'll see.

-Keelerman

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