The 136th running of the Kentucky Derby is history. For the 136th time, there was only one winner. And to be honest, I could not be happier with the way things turned out.
Yes, my pick was Dublin. And yes, he didn't win. But I realized after the fact that it really doesn't matter.
The 136th winner of the Kentucky Derby is Super Saver. Jockey Calvin Borel rode his third Derby winner in four years. And at long last, trainer Todd Pletcher, who was 0-for-24 going into the 2010 edition, got his Derby win.
Could it have turned out any better? I don't think so.
Let's take a look at what happened, beginning with the post parade and loading into the starting gate.
THE KENTUCKY DERBY RECAP
POST PARADE & STARTING GATE
Not much happened here. All of the horses were fairly calm, some a little more excited than others, but not too much. Only a couple of things struck me as potential bad signs, the fact that Dublin appeared to be soaked in sweat as he went into the gate and the fact that Sidney's Candy didn't really want to go in at all. Right then and there I suspected that neither of them would win. I still had faith in Dublin, but not quite as much.
Other than that, the whole pre-race activity was fairly uneventful.
THE RACE
As it turns out, I was quite pleased with how the race was run. NBC did a very good broadcast, and I was able to follow my picks for the entire race.
Now let me run you through what happened. . .
As soon as the gates opened, Conveyance rushed out to take the early lead. Sidney's Candy, despite having to start from gate twenty, managed to get over to the outside of Conveyance to challenge for the lead while not very wide at all. Line of David, who did not care for the sloppy, sealed track at all, was also right near the lead after a quarter of a mile.
But it was the favorite, Lookin at Lucky, who has the bad start. He actually broke from the gate quite well, and nearly got a perfect position. But unfortunately, Noble's Promise bumped him a bit, causing him to drop back, and then Paddy O'Prado bumped Stately Victor, who in turn bumped Lookin at Lucky and caused the two year old champion to drop back to as many as twenty-two lengths off the pace. From that point on, the race was over for him.
So after a quarter of a mile, the race was being run how everybody thought it would be. The three leaders were Conveyance, Sidney's Candy, and Line of David. Discreetly Mine and Mission Impazible were following them closely. And Super Saver? The colt who couldn't rate was back in sixth, five and a half lengths off the lead. He was followed by American Lion and Noble's Promise, who were only heads apart. Jackson Bend was back in ninth, with the filly Devil May Care racing tenth. Homboykris was eleventh, followed by Backtalk, Paddy O'Prado, Dublin, Dean's Kitten, Awesome Act, Stately Victor, Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, and Make Music for Me.
Amazingly, Dublin, who broke from gate seventeen, didn't have to go very wide. Although he steadied in the early going, he did manage to get to the rail at one point in the race. Paddy O'Prado, whom I had expected to sit on or near the lead, was farther back than I expected.
After a half mile, things weren't much different. Super Saver had dropped back to eight lengths off the lead, while Conveyance led the field through a blazing :46 flat half mile. It was a length and a half back to Sidney's Candy, who was a good four lengths clear of Line of David and Noble's Promise. Dublin was about seventeen lengths off the lead, while Lookin at Lucky was still way back, with only Ice Box and Make Music for Me behind him.
With a half mile to go, things really began to happen. Line of David gave way, and Conveyance was beginning to show signs of stopping. Sidney's Candy was still in contention, but Noble's Promise was the biggest threat. In the meantime, Super Saver and Calvin Borel were making a run along the rail. Dublin was also on the move, now only thirteen lengths off the lead. Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, and Make Music for Me still trailed.
Then Noble's Promise made his bid. With amazing acceleration, he pounced on Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy, and had a length and a half lead as they turned into the stretch. Dublin had put in an incredible mid-race rally to come within three lengths of the lead, and the filly Devil May Care came to within a length and a half of lead. Paddy O'Prado was moving strongly, but Ice Box had run into traffic. It was anybody's race!
And then Calvin Borel and Super Saver made their move.
Coming off the rail only briefly to pass the tiring Conveyance, he burst away from the field to claim a two length lead at the eighth pole. Dublin, obviously tired from his big move, began to tire, while Devil May Care was rapidly giving way. Lookin at Lucky was putting in a run between horses, but Paddy O'Prado was beginning to tire. Ice Box, still eleventh and eight lengths off the lead at the eighth pole, finally found racing room and came on with a very strong late rush. Make Music for Me, the second longest shot in the field at 30-1, was also coming home strongly.
But in the end, nobody could catch Super Saver. The WinStar farm homebred, under urging from Calvin Borel, had snuck away from everyone and was two and a half lengths clear under the wire. Ice Box just got up to nail Paddy O'Prado for second, while Make Music for Me rallied for fourth. Noble's Promise finished fifth, a length in front of Lookin at Lucky. Dublin was back in seventh, with Stately Victor eighth. Mission Impazible was ninth and Devil May Care finished tenth.
So how did I do? Let's compare the results to my picks.
RESULTS
1 Super Saver
2 Ice Box
3 Paddy O'Prado
4 Make Music for Me
5 Noble's Promise
6 Lookin at Lucky
7 Dublin
8 Stately Victor
9 Mission Impazible
10 Devil May Care
11 American Lion
12 Jackson Bend
13 Discreetly Mine
14 Dean's Kitten
15 Conveyance
16 Homeboykris
17 Sidney's Candy
18 Line of David
19 Awesome Act
20 Backtalk
. . . versus my many different kinds of picks.
OFFICIAL PICKS
1 Dublin
2 Super Saver
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Conveyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 American Lion
7 Sidney's Candy
8 Ice Box
9 Awesome Act
10 Stately Victor
11 Jackson Bend
12 Homeboykris
13 Devil May Care
14 Make Music for Me
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Noble's Promise
18 Line of David
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Discreetly Mine
GUT FEELING PICKS
1 Dublin
2 Super Saver
3 Mission Impazible
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 American Lion
6 Conveyance
7 Ice Box
8 Jackson Bend
9 Homeboykris
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dean's Kitten
12 Devil May Care
13 Awesome Act
14 Sidney's Candy
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Stately Victor
18 Noble's Promise
19 Line of David
20 Discreetly Mine
RANDOM PICKS
1 Line of David
2 American Lion
3 Stately Victor
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Paddy O'Prado
6 Mission Impazible
7 Dublin
8 Homeboykris
9 Devil May Care
10 Backtalk
11 Noble's Promise
12 Ice Box
13 Super Saver
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Dean's Kitten
16 Jackson Bend
17 Awesome Act
18 Make Music for Me
19 Conveyance
20 Lookin at Lucky
HIGHEST BEYER SPEED FIGURE IN LAST RACE PICKS
1 Devil May Care (DH with Sidney's Candy)
2 Sidney's Candy (DH)
3 Ice Box
4 Super Saver (DH with Line of David and American Lion)
5 Line of David (DH)
6 American Lion (DH)
7 Dublin
8 Conveyance
9 Stately Victor (DH with Mission Impazoble)
10 Mission Impazible (DH)
11 Dean's Kitten (DH with Jackson Bend and Awesome Act)
12 Jackson Bend (DH)
13 Awesome Act (DH)
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Noble's Promise
16 Lookin at Lucky
17 Homeboykris
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Make Music for Me
20 Backtalk
AVERAGE BEYER SPEED FIGURE PICKS
1 Conveyance
2 Awesome Act
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Super Saver
5 American Lion
6 Lookin at Lucky
7 Noble's Promise
8 Discreetly Mine
9 Homboykris
10 Jackson Bend
11 Mission Impazible
12 Dublin
13 Backtalk
14 Devil May Care
15 Line of David
16 Make Music for Me
17 Stately Victor
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Ice Box
Now, some of you will notice that my "Official Picks" listed above don't exactly match the ones I posted on the day of the Derby. Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver traded places. The ones I posted today are correct. Last week, I had picked Lookin at Lucky to finish second, just in front of Super Saver, but changed my mind around noon and forgot to go back and change it.
So anyway, let's take a look at how all my different kinds of picks did. . .
On my "Official Picks" list, the only horse I had pegged exactly was Line of David. I was very close on Jackson Bend, and nearly had Super Saver on top, but just didn't get it quite right. Still, I didn't do terribly bad.
On the "Gut Feelings" list, I didn't get any horse pegged correctly, but my list did look more like the actually order of finish. My gut feeling was that Sidney's Candy was going to tire, and he did. I also felt certain that Make Music for Me was not going to finish last, and that Awesome Act was not going to threaten. All of those assumptions were correct.
Of course, I was dead wrong about Conveyance. I actually didn't think that his Sunland Derby was that bad, and that he could hang on to the lead and surprise a lot of people at large odds. He didn't. He faded to finish fifteenth.
As for my mystery horse, Homeboykris, he didn't run quite as well as I hoped he would, but I'm satisfied. Hey, the horse that everybody thought would finish last ended up finishing in front of the winners of the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Gotham Stakes.
However, this isn't really fair to the Gotham winner Awesome Act. He came out of the Kentucky Derby lame, although I have not heard the reason why. He should be able to return to training. Perhaps he will come back and win the Travers.
Getting back to my many different lists, I will now discuss how the "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks did. In that list, the horse with the highest Beyer speed figure in his or her last race would finish first, while the horse with the lowest Beyer figure would run last.
It actually didn't do all that badly. Although Devil May Care and Sidney's Candy did not finish in a dead heat for the win, it did have Dublin, Jackson Bend, and Backtalk in the right spots, and it was very close on Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, and Ice Box. It had Super Saver to run fourth.
Then there was the "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks, where I averaged out every horse's speed figures and assumed that the horse with the highest average would finish first, while the lowest average would finish last. It worked terribly. The only horse it picked correctly was Lookin at Lucky, to run sixth, and it was way off on everybody else. It had Ice Box to run last, Paddy O'Prado to run eighteenth, Make Music for Me to run sixteenth, and Conveyance to win.
And last but not least, there was my "Random Picks" list, where I randomly selected names from a hat to complete the order of finish. It didn't do very well at all. It picked Dublin to finish seventh all right, but it also had Super Saver to run thirteenth, Ice Box to run twelfth, Lookin at Lucky to finish last, and Line of David to win.
So now that I have thoroughly discussed how I did with my picks, let's concentrate on talking about the winner.
SUPER SAVER AND HIS CONNECTIONS
How can anybody not be satisfied with these results? It's hard to ignore the fact that Todd Pletcher finally got his Derby win.
As I was watching to race, I had one eye on Dublin and one on Super Saver. As the break, I was looking intently at Dublin to make sure he got over to the rail and completely missed Lookin at Lucky getting bumped. When Tom Durkin mentioned his name I glanced in his direction, but not for long, because I saw that Super Saver was on the rail and rating off the pace. And I'm thinking "If Calvin gets him through on the rail, nobody is going to beat him."
So I go back to watching Dublin. I see him steady in the early going, but not too badly. Then I see him drop back to the rear of the pack and get over towards the rail. I was happy for the moment and went back to looking at Super Saver.
So the race goes on. I hear Tom Durkin call a forty-six second flat half mile and I'm thinking "That's great for Dublin." Concerned that Super Saver may be too close to a hot pace, I look for him but see that he is a good eight lengths off the lead and go back to watching Conveyance.
Then I take a look at the race overall. Last year I completely missed Mine That Bird sneaking up the rail as they entered the final turn, and I didn't want to miss the winning move again. Seeing nobody coming fast, I look back at the leaders and see Noble's Promise make his big move to take the lead. At the point, I'm thinking "Is anybody going to catch this colt?" when I see Super Saver coming on the rail. But then I see Dublin coming as well, and the filly Devil May Care and I forget about everything. Past performances, charts, and data mean nothing. This is the Kentucky Derby and I don't care who wins. Whoever comes away from the twenty horse mess with a victory will be cheered by me in the Preakness, even if I had predicted the horse to run last in the Derby.
Into the homestretch I see Dublin approaching and stalling. I glance back at the rail and I can't believe I'm seeing this. Calvin Borel in on the rail, clear by two lengths, with the wire less than a furlong away!
And then I see Ice Box. He's coming fast, but I knew that he was too late. Super Saver flew under the wire first, giving Calvin Borel his third Derby win in four years. For a moment, that's all I can think about. The colt I have liked since last November had come through and won the Derby.
But then NBC cut to a scene of Todd Pletcher, and that's when I realized that he had finally got that elusive Derby win. Nine years of trying, nine years of losing. In the week leading up to the Derby, he was forced to scratch the heavy favorite Eskendereya to an injury and then he had to drop Rule out of the race because he had been training poorly. Then he and the owners of Interactif decided not to run in the Derby and instead wait for a turf race. But none of that mattered now. Super Saver and Calvin Borel had done it for him, and it nearly brought me to tears. This has only happened once before, when I saw Zenyatta battle her way to the outside and mow down Gio Ponti to win the Breeders' Cup classic. To me, you can't beat moments like this. Great horses doing great things for great people.
And then there is WinStar. They have been trying to win the Kentucky Derby for several years now, and they finally get it despite losing their big name horse Endorsement days before the race. And Super Saver is a homebred, which I just love to hear. Hopefully WinStar will continue to breed great homebreds and become the next Calumet Farm!
So in conclusion, I will say that, without a doubt, the 2010 Kentucky Derby is one of my favorite races of all time. I will remember it fondly as long as I live, for not only was I completely happy with the results, it was the first Kentucky Derby that I discussed on my blog.
My top ten favorite moments in horse racing that I have ever witnessed are these;
1. Zenyatta winning the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic.
2. Super Saver winning the 2010 Kentucky Derby for Todd Pletcher, WinStar, and Calvin Borel.
3. Rachel Alexandra winning the 2009 Woodward Stakes. (I didn't see it, but I heard it on the radio.)
4. Curlin winning the 2008 Jockey Club Gold Cup and becoming North America's richest race horse. (I didn't actually see it, but I sat around all afternoon waiting for the Blood-Horse news alert!)
5. Presious Passion finish second in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Turf despite setting insane fractions for the distance.
6. Mine That Bird winning the 2009 Kentucky Derby after I had cheered him on for four months hoping he would get into the race.
7. Zenyatta winning the 2010 Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap while spotting the field considerable weight.
8. Following Better Talk Now as he hit the board in grade I stakes races at age ten. (Once again, I never saw him do it live, but I followed his career very closely!)
9. Blind Luck nailing Evening Jewel on the wire to win the 2010 Kentucky Oaks.
10. Rachel Alexandra wins the 2009 Kentucky Oaks by twenty lengths with no urging at all. (I didn't see it, but anxiously awaited the news alert!)
I could add a lot of other races on there, but right now those are my top ten favorite moments. Of course, should Super Saver sweep the Triple Crown I'll have to add that on there somewhere, but unless it is an especially dramatic race, it will not top Zenyatta's Classic victory. The only race I can see topping that would be Zenyatta winning the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic. . .
But we have months to discuss that. For now, I'm just glad to say that the Kentucky Derby could not have ended in a happier way and I'm looking forward to the Preakness. Will Super Saver sweep the Triple Crown? We will know for sure in just a few short weeks.
KENTUCKY OAKS RECAP
As exciting as the Kentucky Derby was, the Kentucky Oaks did provide a very exciting finish which had me on the edge of my seat. And unlike last year, the 2010 Kentucky Oaks drew a full field of fourteen, led by the three-time grade I winning filly Blind Luck, who scared all those who picked her to win (including myself) when it looked like she wasn't going to get there in time.
But just like in the Las Virgenes earlier this year, Blind Luck found a way to win despite everything and came home the winner of the 136th Kentucky Oaks.
I didn't see much of the post parade, but I did get to see them loading into the gate. It was pretty uneventful, although I don't think that Crisp really wanted to go in.
So off they went. Blind Luck, as expected, broke very slowly, but to my horror, front-running Crisp broke very slowly and never really got a chance to run her race. This was extremely disappointing, but that's the way it goes. Sometimes you get a perfect trip, sometimes you don't. But I feel sorry for her connections. She really had a good chance at winning.
But anyway, after the first quarter of a mile, it was the 9-1 fourth choice Tidal Pool who led the field. Ailalea, at 22-1, was racing in second with Age of Humor up close as well. Evenining Jewel was racing in fourth, followed by Joanie's Catch, It's Tea Time, Amen Hallelujah, Champagne d'Oro, Crisp, Jody Slew, Beautician, Quiet Temper, and Bella Diamante. Blind Luck was dead last, trailing the field by about ten lengths, and she was actually a bit farther back than I expected her to be. As for Amen Hallelujah, I had expected her to be on the lead, but she ran into some traffic issues on the first turn and was never seemed to be involved after that.
After a half mile in :48 flat, the positions were nearly unchanged. Normally in a race of this caliber and field size you see lots of position changing, but the only change to the position was that Amen Hallelujah moved in front of It's Tea Time. That was all!
But with three quarters of a mile run, and only three eighths of a mile to go, things were beginning to change. Blind Luck, who had dropped back to a good eleven lengths off the lead, had put in a strong run on the outside but was chasing slow fractions and was forced to go six or seven wide. Tidal Pool still led the way, but Evening Jewel was threatening on the outside and was looking very strong. Ailalea was still right there, and Beautician was beginning to pick it up as well. Amen Hallelujah was there, but not really closing in.
Into the homestretch they came and Evening Jewel tackled Tidal Pool. Blind Luck was still gaining on the outside, but not quite as fast. Beautician was putting in a strong run as well, but was running out of gas. Ailalea was right there but Amen Hallelujah was tiring.
At the eighth pole it was a tight battle. Evening Jewel led by a half length, but Tidal Pool wasn't giving up. Blind Luck was still three lengths behind, but creeping up with every stride. As they came down to the final sixteenth, Blind Luck came on again with a sudden surge. It looked like she was going to blow right by Evening Jewel, but the latter wasn't going to go down without a fight. For the final few yards, they ran as one, and they crossed the wire as one.
Who had won? Nobody knew. Down the stretch the two fillies had been exchanging the lead with every head bob and it was going to come down to the photo finish camera. Personally, I felt that Evening Jewel had gotten the win, just like I thought she had in the Las Virgenes. It actually didn't strike me until later that Evening Jewel and Blind Luck had met before, and both times it had come down to a head bob. Do I see the beginning of a rivalry?
Anyway, the photo was examined, and it clearly showed the Blind Luck had indeed gotten up in time to claim her fourth grade I win. Yes, it wasn't the fastest running of the Kentucky Oaks, and perhaps we won't see a Rachel Alexandra or a Rags to Riches come out of the race, but you've got to admit that it can't get more exciting than this.
As it turned out, the Kentucky Oaks was a big consolation for Blind Luck's jockey Rafael Bejarano, who's Derby mount Line of David ran eighteenth of twenty and never really did his best running on the sloppy sealed track. Hey, if you can't win the Derby, you might as well win the Oaks!
So here is the full order of finish. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Evening Jewel
3 Tidal Pool
4 Beautician
5 Ailalea
6 Amen Hallelujah
7 Crisp
8 Quiet Temper
9 It's Tea Time
10 Joanie's Catch
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Age of Humor
13 Jody Slew
14 Bella Diamante
. . . versus my selections.
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 It's Tea Time
4 Evening Jewel
5 Jody Slew
6 Tidal Pool
7 Quiet Temper
8 Joanie's Catch
9 Amen Hallelujah
10 Ailalea
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Age of Humor
13 Beautician
14 Bella Diamante
I actually didn't do all that bad here. I picked Blind Luck to win, and had Champagne d'Oro, Age of Humor, and Bella Diamante in the right places as well. The biggest surprise actually came from Beautician, who I thought ran quite well to finish fourth. It was a major surprise to me because I had her picked to run thirteenth. I just didn't think that she would fire. But she did, and she proved me wrong.
Jody Slew is the one who didn't fire. I tossed out her poor showing in the Fair Grounds Oaks due to the fact that she had missed training and I was sure that she was ready to rebound. Instead, she ran thirteenth and never threatened.
As for Joanie's Catch, whom I would have loved to have seen win, she ran tenth, beaten ten and three quarter lengths. It really wasn't the bad, considering she had to break from gate fourteen, race closer to the lead than she usually does, and go at least three wide on both turns. This filly is still one to watch this summer.
So overall, I'm pleased with how the Kentucky Oaks turned out. And who knows? Perhaps Blind Luck will show up for the Belmont Stakes next month. . . !
KENTUCKY DERBY UNDERCARD RECAP
Although I didn't post them last week, I wrote down my selections for the Kentucky Derby undercard races on Derby morning. I thought you might like to see how I did. I'll go through it race by race.
RACE ONE ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING RACE
Results
1 Stay Put
2 Vow to Wager
3 Kettle River
4 Rock Hard
5 Broken Tango
My Picks
1 Stay Put
2 Vow to Wager
3 Kettle River
4 Rock Hard
5 Broken Tango
Although it was only five horses, I must say I was quite pleased to have picked the complete order of finish!
RACE TWO ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Results
1 Zimmer
2 My Piano Man
3 Spicer
4 Raphael Alexandro
5 Bold Victory
6 L. C. Daytona
7 Henceforth
8 Bad Brad
9 Win It
10 Sneaky Dreams
My Picks
1 Zimmer
2 Bold Victory
3 Spicer
4 Raphael Alexandro
5 My Piano Man
6 Henceforth
7 L.C. Daytona
8 Sneaky Dreams
9 Bad Brad
10 Win It
Although I was pleased that I had picked the winner, I was even more pleased that Calvin Borel had won the race. It was at this time that I started to feel really good about Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby.
RACE THREE ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Results
1 Sheryl's Melody
2 Poplar Girl
3 C. S. Royce
4 Kathern's Kitten
5 Circleboundbay
6 Heart Union
7 Wicked Ravnina
8 Stormy Tess
My Picks
1 C. S. Royce
2 Sherly's Melody
3 Heart Union
4 Circleboundbay
5 Wicked Ravnina
6 Kathern's Kitten
7 Stormy Tess
8 Poplar Girl
I didn't do a great job handicapping that one, but I didn't do too badly. Calvin Borel finished last in this race on Stormy Tess while racing four wide. I got to wondering if he knew that the outside wasn't any good and that's why he felt so confident about keeping Super Saver on the rail. Just a thought.
RACE FOUR ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Results
1 Wise Dan
2 Macjoey
3 Good Lord
4 Bravo Whiskey
5 Don't Put It Back
6 Via Verde
7 Havelock
8 New Pais
My Picks
1 Via Verde
2 Don't Put It Back
3 Wise Dan
4 New Pais
5 Good Lord
6 Havelock
7 Bravo Whiskey
8 Macjoey
I didn't do too well here, but at least I acknowledged that Wise Dan had a chance.
RACE FIVE ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Results
1 Pickapocket
2 Rogue Victory
3 Hymm Book
4 Silver Mountain
5 Southern Exchange
6 Anarko
7 On My Dime
My Picks
1 Rogue Victory
2 Hymm Book
3 Pickapocket
4 Silver Mountain
5 Southern Exchange
6 Anarko
7 On My Dime
Well, I got the bottom three right --- my pick ran second. . . overall I didn't do too bad!
RACE SIX ---- EIGHT BELLES STAKES (gr. III)
Results
1 Buckleupbuttercup
2 Visavis
3 Hot Dixie Chick
4 Bell's Shows
5 Sister Resistor
6 Decelerator
7 Kantstopdancin
My Picks
1 Hot Dixie Chick
2 Decelerator
3 Buckleupbuttercup
4 Bell's Shoes
5 Visavis
6 Sister Resistor
7 Kantstopdancin
I was very surprised by Hot Dixie Chick's loss, as I'm sure many people were. I was even more surprised by the fact that Decelerator fell apart to finish sixth. But at least I had Kantstopdancin to finish last!
RACE SEVEN ---- CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE (gr. II)
Results
1 Phola
2 Hot Cha Cha
3 Miss Keller
4 Fantasia
5 Tizaqueena
6 Cure For Sale
7 Diamondrella
My Picks
1 Tizaqueena
2 Diamondrella
3 Phola
4 Fantasia
5 Hot Cha Cha
6 Miss Keller
7 Cure For Sale
I was totally not right on this one. My picks finished fifth and seventh. Is Diamondrella past her prime? It's hard to say. But Phola was very, very impressive.
RACE EIGHT ---- HUMANA DISTAFF (gr. I)
Results
1 Mona de Momma
2 Pretty Prolific
3 Informed Decision
4 Free Flying Soul
5 Warbling
6 Double Expresso
7 Cassidys Pride
8 Rated Fiesty
9 Dubai Majesty
My Picks
1 Informed Decision
2 Pretty Prolific
3 Warbling
4 Free Flying Soul
5 Dubai Majesty
6 Cassidys Pride
7 Mona de Momma
8 Rated Fiesty
9 Double Expresso
I didn't do very well here, but I did have Pretty Prolific and Free Flying Soul in the right spots. However, Informed Decision did have a bit of traffic to overcome, and was definitely coming late, so maybe with a cleaner trip she'd have won.
RACE NINE ---- CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES (gr. II)
Results
1 Atta Boy Roy
2 Warrior's Reward
3 Musket Man
4 Ventana
5 Accredit
6 Victory Notion
7 Kensei
8 Hamazing Destiny
9 Hull
10 Country Day
11 Munnings
12 Wall Street Wonder
My Picks
1 Musket Man
2 Warrior's Reward
3 Atta Boy Roy
4 Ventana
5 Hull
6 Munnings
7 Kensei
8 Accredit
9 Wall Street Wonder
10 Country Day
11 Hamazing Destiny
12 Victory Notion
I had the top four finishers right, just not in the right order. Musket Man did run into some traffic in the stretch and was blocked with just over a furlong to go, so he probably could have won if he had gotten a clear trip. But congratulations to Calvin Borel and Atta Boy Roy, who skimmed the rail to victory! It was a preview of what was to come. . .
RACE TEN ---- WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC STAKES (gr. I)
Results
1 General Quarters
2 Court Vision
3 Loup Breton
4 Battle of Hastings
5 Blues Street
6 Al Khali
7 Yate's Black Cat
8 Wise River
9 Pop Tarrt
My Picks
1 Court Vision
2 Battle of Hastings
3 Loup Breton
4 General Quarters
5 Al Khali
6 Blues Street
7 Wise River
8 Yate's Black Cat
9 Pop Tarrt
I was close. . . very close. Court Vision had the lead in the stretch, but just couldn't maintain it. General Quarters out fought him to the wire. But to be honest, I kind of wanted General Quarters to win. I just didn't think he could. As for Battle of Hastings, he never got a chance to make his run, due to the amount of traffic he ran into.
RACE ELEVEN ---- KENTUCKY DERBY (gr. I) (See above!)
RACE TWELVE ---- ALLOWANCE
Results
1 E Z's Gentleman
2 Handleman
3 Omniscient
4 Coronet of a Baron
5 Grand Daddy
6 A. U. Miner
7 Devastador
8 Marquee Event
9 Thunder Jack
My Picks
1 E Z's Gentleman
2 Handleman
3 Omniscient
4 Coronet of a Baron
5 Marquee Event
6 Grand Daddy
7 Thunder Jack
8 A. U. Miner
9 Devastador
Yes, I got the bottom five wrong, but the fact is I had the top four right --- not too bad! You might call this race a consolation prize for Bob Baffert, who trains the winner. Good for him!
RACE THIRTEEN ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Results
1 Galientos
2 Moe Man
3 Easy to Please Me
4 Scary Good
5 Imperial Pride
6 Forest Coast
7 Irish Emperor
8 Deets
9 Mr Ruff
10 Thunder Highway
11 Angus Drive
My Picks
1 Moe Man
2 Galientos
3 Scary Good
4 Imperial Pride
5 Easy to Please Me
6 Irish Emperor
7 Deets
8 Forest Coast
9 Mr Ruff
10 Angus Drive
11 Thunder Highway
Once again, I was close but not quite right. I had the top five finishers right, just not in the right order. I will mention, however, that Galientos was very impressive and might be a horse to keep an eye on. He probably won't end up doing anything, but you never know. . .
KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD RECAP
And to conclude this extremely long post, I shall discuss the undercard of the Kentucky Oaks, comparing my picks to the actual results.
RACE ONE ---- ALLOWANCE
Results
1 Ravi's Song
2 Yonakee
3 Fortune Play
4 Diamond Song
5 Irish Witch
6 Dixie Pixie
7 Zone
8 Color Me Up
My Picks
1 Ravi's Song
2 Color Me Up
3 Dixie Pixie
4 Yonakee
5 Diamond Song
6 Fortune Play
7 Irish Wish
8 Zone
I picked the winner, but that was about it. Still not bad though.
RACE TWO ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Results
1 Azurite
2 Island Bound
3 Rigamaro
4 Shirley She Can
5 Rendition
6 Smarty's Dream
7 English Girl
8 Crown the Cat
9 Up and Away
10 Karen Ann
11 Officers Glory
My Picks
1 Azurite
2 English Girl
3 Island Bound
4 Smarty's Dream
5 Shirley She Can
6 Crown the Cat
7 Rigamaro
8 Officer's Glory
9 Rendition
10 Karen Ann
11 Up and Away
Picked another winner, and was pretty close on every horse. Not too bad!
RACE THREE ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Results
1 Quick Delivery
2 Bird Empire
3 Tonto Fontenot
4 Belgrave Square
5 Bascom Hall
6 Hybrid
7 Soldero
8 Gigantos
9 Admiral Benbow
10 Sudden Interest
11 Spoon River Lew
12 Kildare Cat
My Picks
1 Quick Delivery
2 Kildare Cat
3 Gigantos
4 Hybrid
5 Bird Empire
6 Soldero
7 Belgrave Square
8 Bascom Hall
9 Admiral Benbow
10 Tonto Fontenot
11 Spoon River Lew
12 Sudden Interest
Once again, I hit the winner, but failed beyond there. But picking winners is better than picking the horses that run last!
RACE FOUR ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Results
1 Funny Feeling
2 Fuzzy Britches
3 Elusive Jozi
4 Glowing Report
5 Go for Jan
6 Oscar de La Thorn
7 Water of Life
8 Briningdown Babel
9 Souma
10 All Country
My Picks
1 Elusive Jozi
2 Fuzzy Britches
3 Souma
4 Oscar de La Thorn
5 Go for Jan
6 Water of Life
7 All Country
8 Funny Feeling
9 Glowing Report
10 Bringingdown Babel
In this race, my pick was Mallory Square, but she scratched from the race. But I still didn't do too badly with Elusive Jozi, although I had the winner to run eighth. . .
RACE FIVE ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Results
1 Danzon
2 Coulee
3 Forest Trail (DH)
3 War Tigress (DH)
5 Grande Annee
6 Susies Gal
7 Missit
8 Kiss Mine
9 Deputy Darling
10 Flaming Slew
11 Absolutely Cindy
My Picks
1 Danzon
2 Missit
3 Forest Trail
4 War Tigress
5 Grand Annee
6 Coulee
7 Deputy Darling
8 Kiss Mine
9 Flaming Slew
10 Susies Gal
11 Absolutely Cindy
I did very well here. I picked the winner, the last place finisher, the third place finisher, and the fourth place finisher. (Although there really was no fourth place finisher here. . .)
RACE SIX ---- LA TROIENNE STAKES (gr. II)
Results
1 Unrivaled Belle
2 Rachel Alexandra
3 Morena
4 Distinctive Dixie
5 Zardana
6 Be Fair
My Picks
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Zardana
3 Unrivaled Belle
4 Be Fair
5 Morena
6 Distinctive Dixie
It's not too often that six horses are separated by so much, and yet so little. The race set up like I expected it to, with Be Fair breaking on top, but the 1-5 favorite Rachel Alexandra surprised me by going to the front very quickly and taking the lead while three wide on the first turn. As expected, Unrivaled Belle sat back in third, while Zardana got into just a bit of trouble on the first turn and failed to threaten from then on. In the mean time, Be Fair gave way on the rail, allowing Unrivaled Belle to sneak into second with three eighths of a mile to go. Morena was on the move from last, while Zardana was trying to rally while four wide. Distinctive Dixie was right in the middle of everything.
This is where Rachel Alexandra was supposed to pull away and win by twenty. But Unrivaled Belle stayed right there with her into the stretch and out fought the champion to the wire, winning by a head. Rachel Alexandra finished second, five lengths in front of Morena. Distinctive Dixie tired to finish fourth, while Zardana was a poor fifth as the 5-1 second choice. Be Fair tired to finish last, beaten twenty-two and three quarter lengths by the winner.
RACE SEVEN ---- KENTUCKY JUVENILE STAKES (gr. III)
Results
1 Lou Brissie
2 Boys At Tosconova
3 Twelve Pack Shelly
4 Wetzel
5 Nina Fever
My Picks
1 Nina Fever
2 Lou Brissie
3 Wetzel
4 Twelve Pack Shelly
5 Boys At Tosconova
I was. . . nowhere near right. My pick ran last, but at least I knew that Lou Brissie could pull the upset. As for the horse who ran second, I had him picked to run last. . .
RACE EIGHT ---- CHURCHILL DOWNS TURF SPRINT STAKES (gr. III)
Results
1 Silver Timber
2 Chamberlain Bridge
3 Central City
4 Formidable
5 Moralist
6 Starfish Bay
7 Barge
8 Perfect Officer
9 Mitigation
10 Heavenly Chorus
11 Lit'sgoodlookngray
My Picks
1 Starfish Bay
2 Silver Timber
3 Chamberlain Bridge
4 Perfect Officer
5 Barge
6 Formidable
7 Heavenly Chorus
8 Lit'sgoodlookngray
9 Moralist
10 Central City
11 Mitigation
Well, I was very close, but not quite right. After seeing the results, I realized that I had fallen for an area of handicapping that I have always pretty much ignored --- final times. In Starfish Bay's last race, she ran something like two seconds faster than Silver Timber did in his last race. Of course, I knew none of the details of either race, but just decided to go with that and picked Starfish Bay for the victory. Wrong. . . although she was only beaten two lengths for the win. But at least I had the winner to run second, and the runner up to finish third!
RACE NINE ---- ALYSHEBA STAKES (gr. III)
Results
1 Arson Squad
2 Flying Private
3 Enriched
4 Prom Shoes
5 Chocolate Candy
6 Cool Coal Man
7 Macho Again
8 Friesan Fire
9 Bullsbay
My Picks
1 Chocolate Candy
2 Bullsbay
3 Arson Squad
4 Friesan Fire
5 Cool Coal Man
6 Macho Again
7 Enriched
8 Prom Shoes
9 Flying Private
Okay. . . I admit it. I was completely wrong about this one. Let's move on to the next race. . . !
Oh, I'm just kidding. Getting serious, I was wrong, but I'm not complaining. I like the old horses and whenever a seven year old can win against his younger rivals, I love it. Arson Squad is now my pick for a certain set of races that are in the future. But I won't get into that until after the Belmont Stakes is over. . .
And also, good for Flying Private and D. Wayne Lukas. Perhaps he can take Flying Private to a new level.
RACE TEN ---- AMERICAN TURF STAKES (gr. II)
Results
1 Doubles Partner
2 Asphalt
3 Guys Reward
4 Setsuko
5 Workin for Hops
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Saint Eligius
8 Strike the Tiger
9 Lost Aptitude
My Picks
1 Guys Reward
2 Setsuko
3 Workin for Hops
4 Doubles Partner
5 Lost Aptitude
6 Alfarabi
7 Gleam of Hope
8 Asphalt
9 Strike the Tiger
10 Saint Eligius
I was close, very close, but not quite on. I respected Doubles Partner, and was not surprised at all when he won. I just wish that I had stuck with Asphalt, a colt I have liked for many months. He ran an excellent race to finish second. Workin for Hops didn't run as well as I hoped he would, and Guys Reward came with too little too late. But overall, not a bad race. A pretty sharp time, too. I would watch out for Doubles Partner later this year. Breeders' Cup Turf? Who knows!
RACE ELEVEN ---- THE KENTUCKY OAKS (See above!)
RACE THIRTEEN ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Results
1 Bialy
2 Ready to Sing
3 Ash Zee
4 Go Pro
5 Hottie Dancer
6 Lil' Moor Dixie
7 Derby Lane's Song
8 Awesome Temper
9 Wyn Jym
My Picks
1 Awesome Temper
2 Bialy
3 Ready to Sing
4 Go Pro
5 Ash Zee
6 Wyn Jym
7 Lil' Moor Dixie
8 Hottie Dancer
9 Derby Lane's Song
Well, I had Go Pro in the right spot. . . but that was it. My longshot pick Awesome Temper ran next to last while finishing seventeen lengths behind the winner. Not the stuff of champions. But my second choice, Bialy, came through to claim a three and a half length victory of Ready to Sing, whom I had picked to run third. So really not to bad!
And that is all. It took me a while, but I succeeded in recapping everything that happened last week. And I must say that it was very fun.
The Derby could not have ended better. So until next time, this is Keelerman saying so long. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
P.S. Now that the Derby is over, I think I had better clean up my desk. I have so many results and charts and personal notes and papers and entries and magazines that if I don't do it now I'm not going to be able to find my computer by the time the Belmont Stakes rolls around! : D
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